WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nogrod]

So, why would the Wizards think of Volo as the seer?

His suggestion he will "start tasting us" combined with a talk of him "sleeping" in his first post could have been interpreted by the wolves as a seer hint (albeit a clumsy and a little bit too open one for the real seer, I'd say).

But his actions at the end of D2 might be interpreted as seerish as well. He has been a long away and comes in three minutes before the DL with a full list of people and his thoughts on them. So using a lot of time before the DL with the game but not participating in the actual discussion, but preparing a kind of "testament" of his thoughts in case he is killed before this Day?


Nevertheless, I do not think these two would be enough for the Wizards to think Volo was the seer. He had to get something right (or if not, then we all have been totally blind and the rest of the wolves have been receiving no attention at all as there would be no better candidates for being the seer for them but Volo with nothing correct in his thoughts...).

So a third post coming soonish (I hope) to see which could be the hits Volo made... in case I'm right in the first place that the Wizards killed Volo for being the seer.

[Nogrod]

It seems Volo suspects Nerwen somewhat on D1 and even votes her, but on D2 he seems to clear her (he mentions her in a suspicious envirovement but kind of defends her at the same time) - in the end of the Day he says he feels like he has "lost his case" on her.

That would speak volumes on behalf of Nerwen's innocence if it was that the Wizards thought of him as the seer. What would have been more likely from a seer than to pick his suspected & voted-person of the Day as a dream during the next Night and then after seeing her innocent defending her openly?

Then there is also Rikae with whom Volo's death looks really bad indeed... Volo seems to suspect her already on D1 (and Rikae might make a decent N1 seer-dream, at least she would be high on my agenda were I a seer) and seems even more critical of her on D2, actually comparing her to PomWizard. And what is remarkable is that he doesn't actually have a "case" to bring against Rikae but he most of the times just hints she is worth suspecting.

I do see a problem with these thought combined though... Clearly a seer could not have been able to dream of both Nerwen (innocent?) and Rikae (Wizard?) both on N2 and thus the Wizards wouldn't have thought of him doing that as they would have known that to be an impossible scenario.

But does that incriminate Nerwen any more (I doubt it does aka. I think her more innocent than not becasue of Volo's death), or does it free Rikae from the suspicion (I tend to think not at the moment as I could see the scenario with her being a wolf much more plausible).


As for other candidates Volo suspected in the end of D2 in his tally of us all, there were Boro and Gil whom both he talks about as playing like when they are wolves.


Sure it is possible the wolves just tried to get rid of someone who was not protected or who would leave as many false tracks as possible. And I'm the last to throw away that option.

[Nogrod]

So finally -and to go to sleep - a disclaimer I think is worthy of mentioning.

YesterDay I thought Rikae a little suspicious but had nothing concrete to base it on but just a slight feeling of unease (which I have on basically all of you but stronger on some than others). But then she posted her odd statement at the last seconds of the game and I went like "what?".

Then reading back Volo's posting and thinking about the wolves thinking him the seer made me look at Rikae as even more suspicious. Nice, right?

But then I remembered that last post she made yesterDay - and it looks like even more puzzling now... And I mean puzzling, not more suspicious.

Yes, you Rikae came forwards pretty soon to kind of answer my question about what did you mean by that post (that you thought earlier Oz was a seer-dreamt wolf but had changed your mind), but what you didn't answer - and what puzzles me the most - is why you thought that was such an important piece of infromation you'd need to post it even if it went over the DL (like it actually did). Especially as you had posted comments twenty minutes before the DL but then remained silent untill the last minute - only to make that statement.

I am even more puzzled by that last comment now.

[Gil-Galad]

Wow, this is just... wow. What a game.

Looking at last days voting, I really don't know where to start from.

Just a heads up, I may not be able to vote toDay, I have multiple doctors appointments tomorrow morning, so I can't guarantee anything.

[Coppermirror]

I'm here and will start reading, but having skimmed the update, I must echo Gil: wow. Didn't think I'd have cause to say this, but good work, wizzers! Also, I suppose that puts paid to the Cobbler-Nog theory.

Now we really have to wonder why they might have picked Volo. There's nothing obvious at first thought...One would usually guess they must have had reason to think he's the Seer, but bearing in mind that this is a big game with 3 remaining wizzards, there's always a possibility of it being some A-grade misdirection. Time to take a good look through.

Even aside from the obvious reason to be happy for the wizzards gracefully handing us the Traitor Troll, I'm pleased because this is just so interesting a twist. Volo had been under such a lot of suspicion yesterDay. I'd have expected them to leave him in as a potential lynch-ee toDay.

Incidentally, I don't have to vote early toDay, and can probably be here until the deadline. (I had thought I would have to vote early, but it turns out I don't have to be at work then after all. However, if I'm alive for the next two Days after, both of those will be early votes.)

[McCaber]

McCaber's Patented Volalysis: Do Not Steal

Post 3: Fluff based around licking and sleeping.
Post 55: Calling me out based around the use of the word "suspicious" in my post 29.
Post 72: Claims he can't hear anything and doesn't suspect Kath.
Post 108: Claims Kath might be the Clever Troll and says the wizards might vote as a group on day 1.
Post 126: Questions Brin about Rikae, and has some opinions about the latter that I really can't figure out from the post. Textbook cobbler in that there are words and sentences, but stringing the sentences into a whole is nigh-impossible.
Post 132: Vote tally
Post 137: Claims Nerwen is more suspicious than me and will settle on her if no one better becomes a candidate.
Post 139: Votes Nerwen while saying Pom and I are less suspicious.
Post 143: Clarifies his thought position in his voting post.
Post 205: Blames Nerwen and Rikae for suspecting CM on day 1. I find this post really weird and hard to see the full reasoning behind it. Again, textbook cobbler.
Post 261: General impressions of everyone. Thinks Boro to be the most suspicious and says everyone else looks innocent, albeit in a backhanded way.
Post 264: Votes Ozban, says Morsul looks innocent.

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nog

Then there is also Rikae with whom Volo's death looks really bad indeed... Volo seems to suspect her already on D1 (and Rikae might make a decent N1 seer-dream, at least she would be high on my agenda were I a seer) and seems even more critical of her on D2, actually comparing her to PomWizard. And what is remarkable is that he doesn't actually have a "case" to bring against Rikae but he most of the times just hints she is worth suspecting.

I do see a problem with these thought combined though... Clearly a seer could not have been able to dream of both Nerwen (innocent?) and Rikae (Wizard?) both on N2 and thus the Wizards wouldn't have thought of him doing that as they would have known that to be an impossible scenario.

Confused by this, Nog That first paragraph seems to be describing a scenario of Rikae as the supposed Night 1 dream- then you say it wouldn't work as she couldn't be the Night 2 dream.
EDIT:x'd with Cab.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.

It is indeed. I'm going to do my own analysis, and I think it would be interesting for everyone to give their thoughts on why he might have been killed.

[Coppermirror]

I will also do an analysis. Might take me a while, though. I'm going off to eat now.

[Brinniel]

Okay, I'm actually really surprised they chose to kill Volo. I thought he was looking quite suspicious from Day 1 (at least I was sort of on the right track). I wasn't the only one who suspected him, so I think it could've been possible for him to be a lynch candidate for toDay. Why not kill someone who is considered by many players to be on the innocent side based on the results of Day 1 instead, as I was guessing their first kill target would've been just that. Yes, one reason could be that they thought Volo was the seer. I'm not sure about that though; his posts don't really stand out as all that seerish to me. Another possibility is that the wizards were simply looking to confuse and misdirect us. I do wonder if a reason they chose not to kill a Pom voter is because a wizard is among them.

[Coppermirror]

If it's a matter of misdirection rather than them going for Volo on Seer grounds, then it might be because there's something in Volo's posts which can send us on a wild goose chase, because they just want to cause general confusion, or because they really, really want us to forget about some line of reasoning that we were on yesterDay, and they thought killing Volo would work best at distracting us.

(And now I really will leave for a few hours.)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Now we really have to wonder why they might have picked Volo. There's nothing obvious at first thought...One would usually guess they must have had reason to think he's the Seer, but bearing in mind that this is a big game with 3 remaining wizzards, there's always a possibility of it being some A-grade misdirection. Time to take a good look through.

I would think it's likely Nog is on the right track, and Volo should have said something to make them think he might be on to one of them. It really doesn't make a lot a sense otherwise. As many have noted, he wasn't exactly considered innocent, and probably would have been one of the prime lynch candidates for toNight.

Originally Posted by McCaber

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.

So to the Wizards anyone who thinks Morsul is innocent must be a Seer? I was thinking someone else had said they thought Morsul was all right, but I don't recall now.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I do wonder if a reason they chose not to kill a Pom voter is because a wizard is among them.

Which one would have stood out, though? Had anyone in particular said things about Pom that would seem to indicate suspicion for ill-defined reasons?

x/d with Cop

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If it's a matter of misdirection rather than them going for Volo on Seer grounds, then it might be because there's something in Volo's posts which can send us on a wild goose chase, because they just want to cause general confusion, or because they really, really want us to forget about some line of reasoning that we were on yesterDay, and they thought killing Volo would work best at distracting us.

All this is possible, but what's the most likely? Seer-suspicion just seems to make the most sense, because he was fairly heavily suspected. If they wanted to mess with our heads, there had to have been other options.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

All this is possible, but what's the most likely? Seer-suspicion just seems to make the most sense, because he was fairly heavily suspected. If they wanted to mess with our heads, there had to have been other options.

Imagine the confusion if they had killed me

It's my wife's birthday so just a quick glance I'll be more active tomorrow but probably not too much.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Which one would have stood out, though? Had anyone in particular said things about Pom that would seem to indicate suspicion for ill-defined reasons?

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If it's a matter of misdirection rather than them going for Volo on Seer grounds, then it might be because there's something in Volo's posts which can send us on a wild goose chase, because they just want to cause general confusion, or because they really, really want us to forget about some line of reasoning that we were on yesterDay, and they thought killing Volo would work best at distracting us.

(And now I really will leave for a few hours.)

If it were misdirection, it could potentially mean that things are the opposite of what they would be if the wizards did kill Volo thinking he was the seer. Of course, in the case that their purpose was to create general confusion, none of this could mean anything. And if the purpose of Volo's death was to distract us, it's so far working because we've discussed little besides his death. So maybe it's time to start looking back at yesterDay.

[Brinniel]

Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious. I need to take a bit of a break, but I'll look more closely at yesterDay's events later.

[Nerwen]

Voloalysis

Day One

#3.
Opening banter. Remarks such as "tasting you trolls to see who tastes like a Wizer. So who shall I lick first?" may have been an attempt to hint to the wolves.

It has been suggested (Nog #279, #281, McCaber #286) that it was actually "Seer"-hinting, or was taken as such by the wolves. Pretty thick wolves, is all I can say.


#55.

Originally Posted by Volo

McCaber, your use of suspicious in post #29 felt somewhat exaggerated. Or was it all just observations on humorous exchanges? Or some as actual interpretations of suspicion?

Just a feeler.


#72. Banter; case against Kath is "too harsh". Will consider her innocent "until further notice".
All right– that could have looked rather Seerish: making sure the village knows you haven't actually dreamed the person you're defending.


#108.
Discusses Kath, Morsul, Gil and myself. A long post, but boils down to: "maybe they're sort of suspicious-ish, but also maybe sort-of not". With hindsight, this is just a cobbler who hasn't got a read on anyone yet, and wants to leave himself as much freedom of action as possible. I don't see why it would have rung any alarm bells for the wolves.


#126.
Post about Rikae. Finds (or claims to find) her somewhat suspicious, using the phrase: "now I'm clearly looking more closely at Rikae, so let's see what else there is". This could also have been taken as a Seer-hint.


#132.
Tally. Is "not sure" about me, Pom "feels more genuine", McCaber is "more on the naughty side".


#137.

Ok, Nerwen is the one I find the most suspicious of those who have votes and will vote for her to save McCaber if I can't agree with someone on a more suspicious character. Due to so much submarineing, I don't feel confident about there being a Wizer in the voted lot.

#139. Vote-post.

++Nerwen
This is a bandwagon. McCaber and Pom are less suspicious and they're up to 3 votes, so this is to counter that. Also, lots of talk, little reasoning.

All this shows us the back-to-front reasoning of a cobbler– by the end, after much wavering, he must in truth have decided I was the least likely wolf! I can't imagine any of these last posts would have attracted wolvish attention, except perhaps for the note at #137 on how he didn't feel confident there was a wolf in the voted lot, which like #72, could have been taken as code for "I haven't actually dreamed this person".


Not really very fruitful. May implicate Rikae. However– assuming Volo was the failed Night One kill– I'm surprised he'd look like the best option at this point. I mean, there are possible "Seer-hints" there, but they're also the kind of things anyone might say by chance, too. And meanwhile, there were the Pom-voters. [EDIT: Obviously I meant "the failed Night TWO kill". Duuuuhhh...]


Day Two

#205. Laments the missed kill and congratulates self on not having helped lynch Pom:"Cheers to the Insomniac and to those who spotted Pom (no thanks to me there...)!" Discusses the suspicion of Cop, with myself and Rikae as having laid the groundwork. Is non-committal about me, but states Rikae may have been "preparing a trap" and that "something here smells".

Hey. Guess he'd decided she was innocent, then.



#261.
Long list of "impressions" of other players. This could have been taken as a Seer's coded list, since nearly all say something like "no idea", "under the radar" or if they are more definite, contain a caveat of some kind. This is of course Volocobbler keeping the field open, but once again could have looked like a Seer's insurance against being posthumously misread.

The exceptions:

Boromir88, "Bore" - something doesn't fit, actually my impression is a bit like when we were Wolf partners ages ago.
(...)
Nerwen, "Nerve" - I've done quite a lot of rethinking about my attitude towards her yesterday, since it bugged me that I ended up voting her while not too sure about her guilt, the other candidates felt less suspicious. I admit, I have a hard time getting a read on her, but I feel like I've lost my case.
(...)
Rikae, "Rick" - I'm growingly more wary with Rikae. Her actions seem like Pom^2. She's been influencing without answering for the responcibility.

The problem with this is of course that there are three names in this category and there could have only been two Seer-dreams.



#264. Vote-post.

Originally Posted by Volo

Ok:

++Ozban

Morsul feels Innocent.

In the previous post, Volo had said of these two:

Originally Posted by Volo

Morsul the Dark, "Mors" - I don't recall playing with him, but he seems genuine and I would feel surprised if he were a Wizer.
(...)
Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.

In other words, exactly the same kind of statement: "probably innocent but I don't really know". This should rule out the comment about Morsul "feeling innocent" being taken as a Seer-hint.

As you see, I am chiefly looking at this with regard to Volo's possible "Seerishness". As this is a large village and as the game has so far been going quite poorly for the wolves, it seems to me they wouldn't want to beat about the bush with their kills– and as Volo would have very likely ended up on the chopping block before long anyway, it also seems to me the wolves would need a really good reason for choosing him.

However, as you see the "evidence" is on the thin side– there are certainly things that could have looked Seerish, but would they have been enough? I'm not sure. It is possible that my assumption here is wrong, and that the wolves were more concerned with creating diversion, laying false trails etc, and/or that they were too worried about losing the kill to go for a better choice– this would especially hold if Volo was in fact the target both Nights. (It's been suggested he wasn't.)

That said, it seems to me both Rikae and Boro do merit some attention, particularly the former.

EDIT:X'd since Brinniel at #290. Edit2: correction.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes, you Rikae came forwards pretty soon to kind of answer my question about what did you mean by that post (that you thought earlier Oz was a seer-dreamt wolf but had changed your mind), but what you didn't answer - and what puzzles me the most - is why you thought that was such an important piece of infromation you'd need to post it even if it went over the DL (like it actually did). Especially as you had posted comments twenty minutes before the DL but then remained silent untill the last minute - only to make that statement.

No special reason, just that I didn't want any confusion about what I was thinking the next day if I ended up being killed.

But that doesn't matter, does it? Apparently I'm suspicious now because the wolves thought that Volo was a seer and he suspected me (did he? I didn't notice) - you'll find any reason to suspect me now that you've made up your mind to do so. Same old, same old.

Anyway, I haven't had much chance to analyze anything this evening and tomorrow I'm afraid I have to go to a funeral (no, that is not a hint of any kind, it's literal RL truth) - so, lynch me if you like, I guess. I'm innocent, but I'm not doing a very good job of wizard hunting at any rate.

[Rikae]

You know, I bet the wizards had plenty of time to discuss Volo's seerish sounding remarks and how they could spin them in their favor when they were choosing their kill.

The best thing for the village now is to know my role, although it will mean that Volo's cobblery and the wolves scheme will have been successful. But hey, there they are, tipping their hand, and there are plenty of innocents left to take care of them, right?

++Rikae

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You know, I bet the wizards had plenty of time to discuss Volo's seerish sounding remarks and how they could spin them in their favor when they were choosing their kill.

The best thing for the village now is to know my role, although it will mean that Volo's cobblery and the wolves scheme will have been successful. But hey, there they are, tipping their hand, and there are plenty of innocents left to take care of them, right?

++Rikae

Actually, there are four players in danger of modfire toDay, so that's not really very helpful, Rikae. And if you're innocent and the intent was really to frame you– which I don't think anyone has ruled out– well, all right, but you can't expect us not to look into it, can you?

[Rikae]

Nope, you caught me, Nerwen. I knew I was a goner when I saw Volo's obvious seer hints, and even more so when I blundered and started a bandwagon against an innocent, encouraged it right up to the deadline and then obviously backpedaled! It's been a long time, and I'm a rusty wolf, what can I say. My fellow wizards and I thought it was best for them to throw me under the bus and make themselves look innocent. For the good of the pack!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nope, you caught me, Nerwen. I knew I was a goner when I saw Volo's obvious seer hints, and even more so when I blundered and started a bandwagon against an innocent, encouraged it right up to the deadline and then obviously backpedaled! It's been a long time, and I'm a rusty wolf, what can I say. My fellow wizards and I thought it was best for them to throw me under the bus and make themselves look innocent. For the good of the pack!

Okay, that's helpful...

++Rikae

[Rikae]

Yay!

Lynched by Poe's law.

[Brinniel]

A couple things on Morsul:

Originally Posted by Morsul

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.

This comment was one of the reasons people voted Morsul. Am I the only one who interpreted it as hypothetical from the get-go? I do think it got blown out of proportion and if Morsul is innocent, I wouldn't be surprised to see a wizard involved in raising suspicion on this comment.

Originally Posted by Morsul

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

This comment I don't blame others for being suspicious; it is rather flimsy. But I'm still not sure if it's necessarily wizard behavior.

[Brinniel]

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

Well, maybe it was, but I thought it was genuine. If not she's being bloody annoying and had no call to do that.

[Boromir88]

Took a nap and this Day 2 stuff is getting tedious to go through. Will post the analysis on everyone I have, keep in mind it is mostly with the Day 1 action in mind, with some of the Day 2 discussion added in:

Cop:

Makes a vote for me that several pointed out being suspicious over. Mostly it seemed like a safe throwaway vote for Day 1 and reasoned purely as an unexplained gut-feeling. Nog doesn’t understand where the idea came from that Cop’s vote wasn’t random, but that came from Cop herself who in #58 said it was either cast a vote for me, a random vote, or abstain from voting, so she decided the first option. It had the look of a random vote but Cop was quite clear not to interpret it as random, but as having a bad gut-feeling. I still don’t like the vote, but it could just be revengeful feelings and you have to consider Pom’s vote Day 1.

Pom would have known there was significant suspicion building against Cop, especially after that string of post #92-94, all pointing out unease about Cop. Pom’s vote was opportunistic, which means she probably wasn’t trying to bus one of her mates. Pom’s post after seeing McCaber’s vote, looks like a wizard who tried to have it both ways. Someone who herself was jumping at the opportunistic lynch, but also trying to make herself look innocent by advising us to watch the Cop voters. Pom’s reaction just doesn’t fit with the interpretation of Cop also being a wizard.

Gil:

Not much more to add than what I already said before, looks jumpy about anything he says seems to be getting turned on him. But agree with sally in #96, don’t see why a Gilwizer would “lay it on so thick” with the victim act.

Inzil:

Nothing looks remotely off about Zil, and I don’t say this to mean he looks too clean, but someone who normally has a good grasp on Zil’s alignment. As a baddie Zil is the master of double-talk and non-committal. Post 23 looks particularly innocent when he responds to Morsul that Pom’s statement (“And as little information as trolling around gives us, saying nothing gives us even less.”) was sensible enough but looked like a generic Day 1 comment. Zil’s bussed packmates before, but I have a hard time seeing he’d put attention on a Pomwizer and bus her Day 1.

Kath:

Nothing of note, other than we can say Morsul seeing a cobbler-hint was indeed a grasp at straws.

Lottie:

Looks about as good as Zil. The differences being Late in Day 1 she’s left her options open. In #121 states she feels good about Greenie, Rikae and Bane, her only listed suspect is Pom. I say it leaves her options open because none of the ones she feels as innocent in 121 were in danger of being lynched. Then in #131 says she disagrees with the “waves of suspicion” against Gil. Copper, and McCaber, and thus votes Pom. Since Lottie had made no statement about those 3 earlier, she had her options open, and could have been a mate bussing Pom since she previously stated suspicions against Pom.

The question remains if Lottie’s a wizard, she clearly left her options open, saw there were 3 other choices, so why state dislike for the waves of suspicion that happened against Gil, Copper, and McCaber, why push Pom to the lynch at all? There was no need for a wizard in Lottie’s situation to vote for a packmate there.

McCaber:

The stand out point seems to be Day 1 he voted a few hours before the DL but still stayed around for the discussion. This caused some exchanges between him, Greenie, and Nog.

#116 McCaber explains his reasons:

I had suspicions and didn't feel like waiting until the last 10 minutes of the Night to get them hashed out. I don't like last-minute surprises.

I forgot to point this out earlier, but Greenie’s response to this does not look good to me:

Fair enough - although unless I'm mistaken, it's still over an hour until deadline. For myself, I'm seldom so sure on Day 1 that I'd feel ready to make a decision with that long still to go (provided that I was around until DL, anyway), especially since quite a lot tends to happen during the last two hours.

She says “fair enough” which I take to be an acceptance of “to each their own, I do this differently but OK.” Despite seemingly accepting McCaber’s explanation, she still puts a negative interpretation that it is still over an hour until the DL, and she wouldn’t make a decision that early if she was around until the DL. If Greenie’s doesn’t look good, Nog’s just looks bad:

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

Granted I don’t vote as early as McCaber before the DL if I know I’m staying around, but I have done the same. If I’m sure my opinion isn’t going to change I don’t see a point in holding it for a last minute fury at the DL simply because I will still be around until the DL. I try more to give a person a chance to respond to suspicions if they’ve left for the day, but if I’m sure nothing will look more suspicious than someone making a bad-looking Day 1 vote why bother holding it to the end? Nogrod tries to cast it as suspicious behavior, which I don't understand why it is suspicious?

Morsul:

What I said here -

Morsul's is less buthersom, cuz we see a clear line of logic...er logical amongst troll herds...mmm herds need shepp'erds shepp'erds are some fine dining. Umm oh, Morsul's vote. I wouldn't vote for Kath based on his reasons, but his early vote dispalys his mind and what he's thinking clear enough. It's reasonin' we can track, if you follow me, and not gut-feelings.
…
Boils down to we know what Morsul's thinking with his early vote. Can't tell what Cop is.

Nerwen:

Aggressively pursues Gil, but her reasons are understandable. Gil gave her a 2nd vote early on for a bad reason. Doesn’t vote, a staple of Nerwen except the infamously cursed game where she voted Day 1 and it seemed a mass illness spread through the entire village.

Nogrod:

Does chalk up his non-committal attitude for most of the day as having very little time, ok I can see that. More of a red flag though is what I stated in the McCaber analysis…trying to frame the behavior that voting early while still being around after the vote is suspicious, that’s really a stretch and I don’t see why it should be interpreted as suspicious, just McCaber having a different approach. Now, we also know his vote for McCaber and strange “So it is Pom” was not made by the cobbler. Given that many seem to be of the opinion “don’t worry about the cobbler, get the wizards, I wouldn’t put it past a wizard-Nogrod to actually look like the cobbler, knowing there would be reluctance to voting for someone appearing to be a cobbler. As it stands though, Nog can no longer go through with that plan, if indeed he is a wizard acting cobbler. (Needs to check Nog's Day 2 posts to see if this "act like the cobbler because people are generally less gun-ho about lynching the cobbler" theory holds water).

Rikae:

Leaning innocent, later in the Day involved in much of the action. States unease about Cop’s recap of the banter, but also quick to point out doesn’t like Pom and McCaber’s jump at voting for Cop. #119 and #120 are interesting, she says Greenie is being too agreeable for a troll, but recanted in 120 because Greenie brings up points against McCaber. Now, in Day 2 McCaber says it seems Rikae was turning the focus away from Pom and onto him, yet as I said earlier, Greenie had been doing the same thing. Greenie is then quick to confirm this is a shrewd point in McCaber’s favor.

sally:

Lots of banter, but her end of the day actions are as green as can be. Looks like a wise sally voting wisely.

Shasta:

The clinching vote for Pom, Shasta will bus teammates if it makes him look better, but a wizard-Shasta at this point had no need to make himself look particularly good. He wasn’t going to get lynched, no one stated suspicions against him. He’s not one to just backstab a mate when there was no immediate need to make himself look innocent.

Volo:

He’s all over the place with McCaber (add now knowing he’s the cobbler, it makes more sense) from testing him in #55, saying in #132 McCaber is more on the “naughty side” and then suddenly #137 votes Nerwen to now “save McCaber.”

Looking at the first several posts today...it needs to be said Volo is the cobbler, and while it is only logical he was killed because the wizards thought he was the seer, it doesn’t change the fact that Volo was making statements to confuse, mislead, and go around in circles. So, while it’s reasonable to speculate “wizards were gunning for the seer,” Volo’s posts were designed entirely with the intent to confuse us, therefore what he actually said needs to be looked at with a grain of salt, not stressed that it somehow contains traceable info because the wizards possibly thought he was the seer.

Also, I've so far left out my Ozban analysis, because considering this drive for people to find seer hints in Volo's posting. The fact remains Ozban was a lynched ordo. His conclusions may be wrong, but it's the intent behind his posting and reason we can now trust as innocent. We know he was posting with innocent intentions...Volo wasn't. Period. I want to go through all of Ozban's posts to see if any conclusions can be made, there is value to knowing we can trust Ozban's intentions behind his posts. Can't trust Volo's.

Edit: crossed with Rikae, Nerwen, Brinn several times...umm what is going on?

[McCaber]

Huh. As much as I feel Rikae delenda est, I think this sort of behavior we see from her is not what a wolf Rikae would be doing in that situation. And this leaves me rather conflicted.

I guess today's vote won't be so easy as yesterdays was for me. I will need to look further.

[Nerwen]

Before this goes any further: I do know all about Rikae's history of self-voting, hence my reply to her. When, however, she confessed– or as it may be, "confessed"– I took it to mean she was a wolf who had initially meant to fight it out, but on closer reading had decided there was too much against her, and too much risk of her comrades implicating themselves by trying to save her.

As I said: if she's innocent it was certainly very unhelpful of her at this point.

[A Little Green]

First off - so sorry for not voting yesterDay! It's embarrassing, really; I thought I'd vote after taking a shower, then when I got back I somehow thought I had already voted and went to bed. Just for the record, though, my vote would have been for Morsul or McCaber, probably Morsul since he seemed more likely to get lynched. (If I'm not mistaken, he would have been if I had not forgotten to vote. Bah.)

Originally Posted by Kath

McCaber being the first ... may have felt like a safe vote but then would Pom have followed that vote up if McCaber were a wolf? But that phrase 'suspicion-mongering' from McCaber I still don't like.

The thing is, Pom and McCaber cross-posted I believe, so she didn't think she was following anyone up.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I still think Volo's vote the least suspicious among he, Nog and Boro. Now he has two votes, one of them Gil. Interestingly, Gil also was the second vote for Nerwen YesterNight. As part of his reasoning for voting Volo, he cites the latter's "bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee". When he himself voted for Nerwen?

Interesting observation. Makes my brain hurt, though.

Originally Posted by Boro

This is why she remains “somewhat suspicious of McCaber”…(My note of interest here: Considering Greenie voted for McCaber and gave 3 reasons for it, albeit Day 1, and one of those a “gut-feeling” it still had the appearance of about as reasoned as a vote as one might expect for Day 1. I’m not sure what changed…I would think she would still remain highly suspicious about the fact that McCaber made an opportunistic looking vote and not attempt to slowly back away from the suspicion if it were earnest suspicions. This does raise the first big wizardly flags, because after trying to steer the focus onto McCaber the previous Day, given that Pomwizer was lynched, it seems Greenie wants to now drop the case). She brings up we may be over interpreting Pom’s peculiar statement, which makes it seem like she doesn’t want anyone going back to look at her posts trying to put focus onto McCaber’s vote and not Pom’s. Too bad, I have.

Definitely suspicious of Greenie’s actions. In #222 Greenie makes a sudden turn to feeling good about McCaber saying he made a "shrewd point" that Rikae was trying to turn focus on him and away from Pom. When interestly enough, Greenie was doing the same, she gave reasoned defenses for Pom’s post in #110, while also putting the focus on McCaber’s opportunistic looking vote.

I do still suspect McCaber. I just don't want to pursue it blindly; I've done that before, usually on innocents. I suspect him, but at the same time he makes points I agree with, which leaves me confused. I don't know anything, so I get second thoughts about every idea I have. Simple as that.

As for why I pursued him instead of Pom - he seemed to me the more suspicious of the two, mainly because I had also other reasons to suspect him than just the vote. I'm not sure it's justified to say I defended Pom, though. I just said it was possible her "Keep an eye on the Cop voters" was a joke, and that I found McCaber more suspicious than her.

Originally Posted by Nog

He had to get something right (or if not, then we all have been totally blind and the rest of the wolves have been receiving no attention at all as there would be no better candidates for being the seer for them but Volo with nothing correct in his thoughts...).

As for this, I've no idea what this means.
Nog brings up an interesting theory about the Wizers having thought Volo was the Seer; I agree that it's the only way the Volo kill makes any sense. He seemed a likely lynchee for toDay, as Cop pointed out, and created a lot of confusion, too (which we now know he did on purpose).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Confused by this, Nog That first paragraph seems to be describing a scenario of Rikae as the supposed Night 1 dream- then you say it wouldn't work as she couldn't be the Night 2 dream.

I wondered about the same. Nog, can you clarify?

Originally Posted by Brinn

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.

That is actually a very clever point; almost too clever. It's true that the Wizers might want to be rid of players so uniformly considered innocent, but then again, they'd probably want to get rid of the Seer first. (It's also possible they tried one of the two on Night 2 and the ranger blocked it.) Something about this post rubs me the wrong way though; it could be something planned overNight, a strategy to incriminate Sally and Shasta by keeping them alive, and Brinn started it off a bit eagerly? I simply don't know, but it got me thinking for sure.

And now Rikae went and self-voted and called herself a wolf. Really not very helpful if she's innocent. Then again, also not helpful if she's a Wizer, so I'm mostly confused.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, who makes sense.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

As for this, I've no idea what this means.

I think it means: "If the wolves did kill Volo as a suspected Seer, it follows that some of his statements about guilt/innocence must be correct, else some other player who did get it right would have looked like a better candidate. The only alternative is that everyone else has been wrong too."

But hey, he's your father...

[Morsul the Dark]

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

But I'll start looking for the other two wizards and....

++Rikae

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious.

Well, we know one of them was innocent. About Morsul, I would have thought him a more likely Traitor than Volo, but that's out the window now.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually, there are four players in danger of modfire toDay, so that's not really very helpful, Rikae. And if you're innocent and the intent was really to frame you– which I don't think anyone has ruled out– well, all right, but you can't expect us not to look into it, can you?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nope, you caught me, Nerwen. I knew I was a goner when I saw Volo's obvious seer hints, and even more so when I blundered and started a bandwagon against an innocent, encouraged it right up to the deadline and then obviously backpedaled! It's been a long time, and I'm a rusty wolf, what can I say. My fellow wizards and I thought it was best for them to throw me under the bus and make themselves look innocent. For the good of the pack!

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

I don't buy Rikae's "confession". We have 16 players at the moment, and the ratio of innocent to evil is 13:3. A Wizard Rikae logically would not have done that, at least not until she'd begun receiving votes and truly felt it was hopeless. That does make me wonder about Nerwen's quick vote for her. Even if Rikae isn't being terribly helpful by voting herself, to me that's an insufficient reason to vote her.

x/d with Morsul- C'mon. Really?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

Hm. That's actually possible, but if so, she'd better hope she's right.

[Nerwen]

The Ozwagon
Important note: many quotes are from much longer posts, often ones in which a large number of other players are mentioned.

#163

Originally Posted by Gil

This leads to Green, Nog, Oz and Rik being added to my suspects list, if they were trying to save their fellow wizer by drawing the votes onto Cab.

#187

Originally Posted by Brinn

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

#196. Nerwen votes Nogrod.


#200. Ozban votes Morsul.


#210.
McCaber votes Rikae


#213.
Brinn votes Volo (Reasons given at ##187.) Adds "I'm still wary of Oz, but I'd like to hear more from him."


#202

Originally Posted by Greenie

Right now I feel the worst about Morsul, Nog, and Cab. I doubt all three are evil, though. Morsul and Cab would be a weird pair, as would Cab and Nog. And I have a nagging feeling that we might well be dealing with a wolf pack of, say, Brinn, Volo and Ozban.

#203 (marked "x'd with Greenie")

Originally Posted by Brinn

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

#204. Greenie quotes #203, #204, adds eyeroll.


#206

Originally Posted by Greenie

In all seriousness, though, I'm not sure what to think of Ozban's analysis of Morsul. While I agree with pretty much every point he makes, he seems to make the points with an assumption that Morsul is evil. It's as if he has decided the outcome already before doing the analysis. Then again, I've seen innocents get fixated in that way too, so I don't know.

#207.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. (...) Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

#208.

Originally Posted by Zil

Ozban put Cab in the lead, and his vote looks worse than the first two.

#213. Brinn votes Volo (Reasons given at #187.)


#216. Lottie votes Morsul (2)

#220. Gil votes Volo


#228.Rikae votes Ozban

Originally Posted by Rikae

What is the point of Oz's #142, I wonder? Points out who is tied (Cab, Cop, Nerve and Pom) and " I have a feeling much will change before deadline yet". Well, yeah. Something seems fishy here. It's like he's trying to draw someone's attention to the need for a certain vote.

Now, today, Oz comes in with a case against Morsul based entirely on yesterday's posts. Almost as if he, oh, wrote it during the night, not thinking that the night's events, or today's posts, would give him any new information.
Quote:

Then he votes - a fairly safe vote if I'm not mistaken.

#229.

Originally Posted by Copper

And then there's Ozban, whom I somehow seem to have forgotten about almost entirely until now. Epic failure on my part, how could I do that...

#230

Originally Posted by Kath

Ozban --> McCaber 3 (opportunistic vote and not contributing much
(...)
Ozban posted a very useless 'suspicion' list. I mean, there were plenty of unhelpful recapping posts where all they showed were literally shortened version of what was said with no analysis so this at least was better, but it just went 'everyone is suspicious'. Non-committal. Does come out with own thoughts later.

#231.
Copper posts analysis of Ozban, finding him to be excessively cagey and his votes to be "sudden". Is considering voting him, along with Volo and Morsul.


#235.

Originally Posted by Zil

I could vote for Ozban too though. The Morsul vote toNight looks rather fabricated. Coupled with his putting Cab in the lead yesterNight doesn't help him look any better.

#237. Zil votes Ozban (2)

Originally Posted by Zil

After quick deliberation, Gil may be acting too careless for a Wizard. So...

++Ozban

and hope for the best.

#239. Kath votes Morsul (3)


#240. Morsul votes Ozban (3) (x'd since Zil at #237.)

Originally Posted by Morsul

++ Ozban

His vote for me seems to be picking up on other people's suspicion(Which I don't really get but can accept) Seems a little forced and coming from a conclusion first evidence later mentality. Wife's using computer so won't be back before DL.

#241.
Copper votes Ozban (4) (Does not give reason in this post, but see #231. Vote is a tiebreaker.)


#242.

Originally Posted by Sally

I can understand the concern about Oz, but I honestly don't have the time to go back and look at all of his posts, so I'll have to ignore him for the moment.

Originally Posted by Rikae

And doubleposting, but: Cop, why Oz over Morsul? Give us something to gnaw on.

#248.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sally, Oz doesn't have that many posts to look at. For your convenience:

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/search....archid=3767928

#251. (answering Rikae.)

Originally Posted by Copper

I think that Morsul's turn of phrase might well be something an innocent could say. Morsul doesn't word things extremely carefully and can be a bit sloppy. Aside from that remark, there are things which worry me, but I'm not confident enough in those to vote for him.

The real decision was Ozban over Volo, and to be honest I'm not at all sure I've made the right choice, given the amount of strange things Volo said. The reason I went for Ozban is because of the quick vote placement with no warning, few posts, and because it's likely that a wizard would attack another candidate rather than defend a fellow wizard.

#252.

Originally Posted by Nog

Oz seems a bit suspicious (I looked at a few posts form late D1 and some of toDay), but how much of it is not being used to this game and how much genuine suspiciousness?

#254.

Of the ones with votes (and possible meaningful votes for us two) I might say Oz is a better pick than Morsul or Volo. But none seems especially innocent or suspicious either for me

.


#256.

Originally Posted by Sally

I don't have a problem with voting Oz, really, but Volo and Morsul are still highly suspicious for me.

Assuming it is just us, Volo would be a ridiculous move, as we'd only tie him with Oz and Oz would still die. Thus, unless someone else shows up, our options seem to be Oz and Morsul.

#258.

Originally Posted by Nog

I tired to look also at who had voted for whom (so whether someone's votes were given by shadier or more trustworthy people in this game on my mind) - and only found both main "camps" (Morsul voters and Oz voters) looking too suspicious...

#260.

Originally Posted by Sally

I really feel like an Oz vote from me would not be well-informed, at least enough to be comfortable. Morsul made that arguable slip about McCaber and then revenge voted Oz when he was suddenly in the lead. I'd say that's pretty shifty.

#261.

Originally Posted by Volo

Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.

#262.

Originally Posted by Nog

So which one would you suggest: Oz or Morsul?

I could go with either (there's reason for both picks).

Oz is a relative newcomer and might earn a go for it but Morsul could be just his normal...

#263.

Originally Posted by Sally

Oooo! Also, if Morsul is a wizard, his choosing to vote Oz over Volo would make the third lad look very bad as well.

#264. Volo votes Ozban (5) The kill-vote.


#265. Nog votes Morsul (4)


#266. Sally votes Morsul (5) (x'd with Nog and Volo's votes.)

#268. (x'd since #263)

Originally Posted by Rikae

Part of my reason for voting for Oz has evaporated (part I didn't mention) but I still see reason to vote for him, at least more so than Morsul.

Sally (#260) calls Morsul's vote for Ozban "revenge", but in more practical term he was likely voting to save himself- which tells us nothing either way. Of the other voters, Cop is (to use her own expression) very "sudden"– 2 posts earlier she had forgotten all about him– while Rikae did a good deal to encourage suspicion against Ozban early on then– in her own words– "backpedalled".

Now, having tested out as Legolas on one of those personality quizzes, it should surprise nobody when I point out that the only other unknown in any danger whatever was Morsul. Thus, the Oz-votes are highly significant if he is, in fact, a wolf– if not, not, as the wolves wouldn't need to be very active in steering the lynch otherwise.

EDIT:X'd with two Zils.; saw Morsul's vote just before posting.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Zil

I don't buy Rikae's "confession". We have 16 players at the moment, and the ratio of innocent to evil is 13:3. A Wizard Rikae logically would not have done that, at least not until she'd begun receiving votes and truly felt it was hopeless. That does make me wonder about Nerwen's quick vote for her. Even if Rikae isn't being terribly helpful by voting herself, to me that's an insufficient reason to vote her.

I have already explained why I voted her– here: #309. It may have been precipitous, but it was honest.

[A Little Green]

I'm leaning towards agreeing with Morsul about Rikae; but also, him saying that aloud and then voting for her makes him look better. The Wizers don't know who the Purseholder is, and I believe they'd be wary of killing a suspected one. The only way they could be sure of Rikae not being the Purseholder would be if Rikae was one of them, in which case voting for her would seem, at least to me, a seriously bad move. There is still the possibility of Rikae being a wolf and just not in cahoots with Morsul, but I, like Brinn, originally read her "confession" as sarcasm. An overreaction, yes, but RL stress is RL stress (hugs to Rikae, hope you're all right).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm leaning towards agreeing with Morsul about Rikae; but also, him saying that aloud and then voting for her makes him look better. The Wizers don't know who the Purseholder is, and I believe they'd be wary of killing a suspected one.

True, the Purseholder may have the number of one of them, but the odds are still against it. A Morzard might have just taken the gamble that she's wrong.

Then again, I do think that Morsul's stated reason for voting Rikae seems better than Nerwen's.

[Rikae]

I'm sorry for being unhelpful, guys. It was three am my time, and I wasn't thinking too clearly. All I saw was Nog going on one of his usual crusades, acting as though everything pointed toward his preconceived suspicion, and having dealt with those before I couldn't stomach the idea of doing so again.
It seemed to me pretty obvious that his case didn't make much sense; I've been a wolf enough times to know that it's rare you kill for a suspected seer, and when you have one that points to a wizard, that's a touchy situation, while a relatively quiet player who points seerishly to an innocent is gold. Volo did a good job, basically. The trouble is, Nog goes on these crusades as an innocent, and he also is good enough to imitate them as a baddie, so I can't even say anything about him.
I don't feel like I can say anything about Nerwen, either. Could have honestly taken my post literally, could have jumped at the chance to make a very safe vote. Shouldn't have given her that chance. I also had to go check the rules again and see votes are not retractable, so I've created even more of a mess.

At any rate, I have difficulty seeing why the "Volo was a suspected seer" thing is taken for granted so. Greenie says it's the only explanation that makes sense, which is way out there: as far as I'm concerned, Volo was flying under the radar pretty well until now and his one trail was a convenient one for the wolves. He creates confusion, but so does Gil, so does Kath (really, the wizard of OZ and you aren't a cobbler, Kath?), and if the remaining wolves aren't under much pressure they wouldn't be too worried about that.

Also: not the purseholder, just an ordo.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

It rests with the belief "I'm innocent, but I'm too much of a distraction so best to just lynch me and be done with it." I'm the same way in that my basic principles as an ordo are Don't do the wizards' job and lynch your gifteds. Be lynch fodder if I must because in the grand scheme of things an ordo lynch isn't nearly as devastating as a gifted death.

1. It would show the non-wizards I had innocent motivations and therefor possibly lead to the real bad folks.

2. Keeps the gifteds alive longer, which is the true bane of any pack.

Rikae is trying to spare/protect someone or another...

Whether that be spare the innocents from a distraction when she's too frustrated and doesn't have the time to defend herself. Feeling that as long as she's still alive she would be a distraction. I don't think a hunter-Rikae would do this, given the odds, I think she would fight for her innocence harder, not throw it in simply after Nog and Nerwen are looking at wizards suspected Volo as the seer theory.

Or she is indeed a wizard and wants to quickly stop her 2 other mates from trying to save her. To try to give them a restart considering how badly their night kills have turned out. It puts those two in a bigger uphill battle, but considering they still don't have a gifted, I would expect at least an attempt fake reveal (if Rikae was a wizard) to draw out one of them and make it easier on the other two if she's going sacrificial.

Edit: crossed with Rikae