WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Kath

Votes Nerwen based on previous reasons and based on the idea that the wolves would try to protect WolfNerwen by killing SeerSally. Rather assumes the wolves had figured out sally was the Seer despite her just saying that sally wasn't an obvious Seer.

Agh. What I meant was that because Sally wasn't an obvious Seer, the wolves must have had some reason to pick her over other possible Seers. (It is also possible, of course, that they weren't going after the Seer at all - though that would be a weird thing to do - or that their reason for picking Sally was something else.)

Originally Posted by Boro

And Greenie, glad you don't want to get into the semantics. If I was coming off as bullish, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to. I was trying to expresss the frustration, while also saying if you suspect me, then suspect me. Because I know you're better than that to give me a fair chance to defend suspicions.

That's fine - and I promise that if I actually do start suspecting you, I'll do it properly.

[A Little Green]

Also, Nerwen's conviction that the ongoing suspicion of her is result of evil manipulation is, while understandable, also a bit too harsh to my taste. How can you know, as an innocent?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Agh. What I meant was that because Sally wasn't an obvious Seer, the wolves must have had some reason to pick her over other possible Seers.

But that would be rather a feeble one, wouldn't it? And as I pointed out yesterDay, according to your theory, you yourself should have been the one picked, not Sally. You *voted* me, after all.

(It is also possible, of course, that they weren't going after the Seer at all - though that would be a weird thing to do - or that their reason for picking Sally was something else.)

Like what?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, Nerwen's conviction that the ongoing suspicion of her is result of evil manipulation is, while understandable, also a bit too harsh to my taste. How can you know, as an innocent?

Well, we *are" playing *Werewolf*, Greenie. I mean, evil manipulation it's what wolves are *supposed* to do, right? And as matter of face, though, I didn't say I *knew* this. To quote myself–

Or we could even be in one of those ill-fated madhouse villages where everyone slaughters each other with only minimal and subtle lupine encouragement. This does happen.

[A Little Green]

Just to get an idea of who, why and in what context the living players voted on the past Days. Conclusions to follow.

DAY 1 VOTES
(living players bolded)

Kath – Sally

I feel she's a player that shows her mettle better under a bit of pressure. I know she's got the brains. Let's see 'em!

She also expressed, earlier in the Day, criticism of Sally's joking attitude.

Pitch – Gal
Legate – EW

Inzil – Pitch

There was the accusation of me "harping' about the guide being partly responsible for our predicament (which I mentioned in only two halfhearted IC posts). Then his interactions with Bom, followed by the sudden switching of targets to G55.

Kit – Pitch (2)
Gal – Pitch (3)
Bom – Pitch (4)

Boro – Kath

I usually can never figure out sally until she is under some good suspicion either, but a trumped up vote with the sole reason of hoping to get sally to talk, does raise a warning.

EW – Inzil
Sally – EW (2)

Nerwen – Kath (2)

I might vote her, simply *because* I don't want a universal bandwaggon – and yeah, her vote was suspect, all right. The only thing I could say about it, really, is that this being *Kath*, she may honestly not realise what you're *supposed* to do on Day One. (Trouble is, looking at Kath tnds to bring Pitch back into it anyway.)

No vote: Azura, Greenie, Laeko

[A Little Green]

DAY 2 VOTES

Kit – Bom

Greenie – Nerwen

In pointing out Pitch's suspicious behaviour but leaving the end with an open hmmn, she urges others to suspect Pitch without really involving herself. And indeed, she washes her hands as soon as Pitch gets votes.

Kath – Inzil

Inzil for apologising for voting Pitch. I just find that very suspicious. It's like going 'Oh silly me! Don't blame me now, will you?'

Legate – Gal
Gal – Nerwen (2)
Sally – Gal (2)

Laeko – Gal (3)

Having read the discussion, that leaves Nerwen and Galadriel. What strikes me as both hilarious and confusing simultaneously is that the two seem to have engaged in quite the argument. Now, that could potentially mean that a) neither of them is is a wolf but they suspect each other, b) one of them is and is trying to make the other one look it so as to avoid attracting attention herself, or c) both of them are and one of the werewolves is getting betrayed. c) is illogical because it's far too early in the game. This is why I decided to wait further.

Inzil – Gal (4)

I believe I could go for G55 based on what Nerwen's said, as well as the fact that she was involved in the Pitch-wagon yesterDay (along with, coincidentally, I'm sure, Bom ). It's hard for me to believe no wolves were involved with that.

Azura – Sally

because of her earlier posts

Boro – Gal (5)

Granted bandwagons can form out of nowhere, but that came after she saw the 3 votes for Pitch. And yesterday, aside from Pitch (who had already voted for her), I don't recall many supsicious reactions towards her.

And then today with just the making jokes about being a wolf. I don't get the point of doing that, and more often then not it's what always made me suspicious of Fea.

Nerwen – Gal (6)
(Couldn't find one quote of reasonable length summing up her reasons, but they were pretty much at each other's throats all Day.)

[A Little Green]

DAY 3

Greenie – Nerwen

Nothing she has said has made me change my impression of her. Additionally, Sally suspected her late on Day 2. No, I'm not saying she was dreamed of; I think it's pretty obvious that she was not. But the thing is, Sally wasn't, at least in my mind, an obviously Seer-looking Seer. So if the wolves had a few options, it seems plausible that they'd go for the possible Seer that was most likely to dream one of them the next Night.

Kath – Greenie

For such a flip floppy Nerwen vote. Either sally was an obvious Seer who the wolves were afraid would dream of NerwenWolf, or sally was not an obvious Seer. I just don't think you can have it both ways.

Legate – Nerwen (2)
Kit – Legate

Nerwen – Legate (2)

You, on the other hand, have constantly been repeating that I have been in an apparent attempt to hypnotise the village into thinking this must be the case.

It has gone past the point where I can believe it an innocent mistake.

Inzil – Legate (3)

2. Legate, who does seem to be reaching a bit to make some of his points, but has also received a vote from someone I'm not comfortable with (Kit)

Laeko – Nerwen (3)

Nerwen is seeming a bit suspicious in terms of projecting a sort of argumentative vibe, but then again, most of what I've been noticing in terms of her posts is defending herself, and when everyone's paranoid (which we all should be), that's at least somewhat understandable.

Boro – Legate (4)

But I rather think Nerwen looks pretty innocent.

Agghhh

There was also their earlier lengthy argument about whether or not Boro was being agreeable.

No vote: Azura

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But that would be rather a feeble one, wouldn't it? And as I pointed out yesterDay, according to your theory, you yourself should have been the one picked, not Sally. You *voted* me, after all.

That's true, I guess, and something I had not considered. Might be there was something else either Sally or I said to make them pick her over me - her suspicion of a second wolf, or my declaration of the innocence of another. Or might be that I was off about Sally's suspicion of you having to do with her death. Either way, we can't really know - or even find new information about it - which is why this gets, in my opinion at least, too speculative to be of any real importance.

Like what?

That is, in fact, exactly why I ended up suggesting that they thought her the most dangerous out of several possible Seers; I couldn't think of other things that would have led to the wolves picking her.

Well, we *are" playing *Werewolf*, Greenie. I mean, evil manipulation it's what wolves are *supposed* to do, right? And as matter of face, though, I didn't say I *knew* this.

Agreed on both accounts. But. Concerning your first statement - that evil manipulation is what wolves do doesn't automatically mean that it's what the suspicion of you is about. Concerning the second - I didn't talk about knowing, I talked about conviction, and semantics or not but I think there is a significant difference between the two. While not directly saying that you know you're being set up by manipulative wolves, you state it as a fact, and add the part you quoted afterwards as an alternate scenario. I think there is a notable difference between the first two quotes below and the last one:

Not only that, but the number of ordos who have allowed themselves to be manipulated into going after me...

So, who has been doing the manipulating?

compared with

Or we could even be in one of those ill-fated madhouse villages where everyone slaughters each other with only minimal and subtle lupine encouragement. This does happen.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Like what?
That is, in fact, exactly why I ended up suggesting that they thought her the most dangerous out of several possible Seers; I couldn't think of other things that would have led to the wolves picking her.

And yet, you found this sufficient reason to vote me.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Agreed on both accounts. But. Concerning your first statement - that evil manipulation is what wolves do doesn't automatically mean that it's what the suspicion of you is about. Concerning the second - I didn't talk about knowing, I talked about conviction, and semantics or not but I think there is a significant difference between the two. While not directly saying that you know you're being set up by manipulative wolves, you state it as a fact, and add the part you quoted afterwards as an alternate scenario.

And this is important to you– why?

[A Little Green]

Looking at the votes -

Inzil's voting has been really easy; in fact, he voted for the most popular candidate every Day. (And someone called Boro Mr. Agreeable?) YesterDay, though, he did make it clear he didn't suspect any of the Day's lynch candidates in earnest.

Kath, by contrast, has been an independent voter, not involved in any of the bandwaggons that have taken place. Her Day 1 vote for Sally was considered suspicious by some; I see the point though I didn't and don't really suspect her.

Nerwen - I think I have ranted enough about her Day 1 vote to last a lifetime, so I won't get into that. The latter two were both result of a Day-long back-and-forth, first with Gal, then with Legate. The second was also a self-preservation vote.

Boro - Brought up Kath as a new lynch candidate on Day 1. The latter two Days he voted for Gal and Legate. I find it hard to say much about his votes, if truth be told - I disagreed with two of them (both Kath and Legate seemed innocent to me), but his reasons were sound enough. If Nerwen is a wolf, I'd hazard a guess that Boro is, too - but until we have information, any such speculation is no valid reason for any conclusion whatsoever.

Azura - Well. There's little to say.

Laeko - I'd like a clarification for the reasons behind her Gal vote, I'm not sure I really understood them. Her votes, Gal on Day 2 and Nerwen on Day 3, were both rather conventional ones.

My look at the votes made me somewhat suspicious of Inzil and feeling no better about Nerwen. Even if those two actually are wolves, that would still leave a third. I haven't had a look yet at how those two interact together - might be there's no way they could be in it together. But if neither of them is guilty, I'll eat my hat.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And yet, you found this sufficient reason to vote me.

I did not. Alone, that would have been a ridiculously flimsy reason to vote anybody. I had other reasons to suspect you. That one only got so much space in my vote post because it was the only one I had not stated a hunderd times before alredy.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And this is important to you– why?

I elaborated because you asked. If you mean more generally - well, I found it curious that you state as a fact that the village is being manipulated against you.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I did not. Alone, that would have been a ridiculously flimsy reason to vote anybody. I had other reasons to suspect you. That one only got so much space in my vote post because it was the only one I had not stated a hunderd times before alredy.

Well, off the top of my head, the only reason I can remember is my Day One vote for Kath. And I think that's pretty thin, too, quite frankly.

I elaborated because you asked. If you mean more generally - well, I found it curious that you state as a fact that the village is being manipulated against you.

Well, it probably is. Again, this is Werewolf.

[Boromir88]

Last night I was all but convinced Inzil was a wolf, but now with the wolves needing 1 more successful lynch, I really don't know.

I was hoping to direct the wolves to Kit and Kath as sally's dreamed innocecents. So why Kit, and not Kath? And if Inzil is getting framed it's a masterful job by the wolves. Hoping I would jump on a vote against Inzil now? Still, Inzil looks highly suspect.

There's nothing we can find from Azura. And nothing we can really do other than let Azura get modfired, if he doesn't come to vote.

Laeko's posts look like there's a good grasp on people. But that vote and "so who's going to break the tie?" looks bad. And, at this point, not something I'm going to write off as a newbie misunderstanding.

I'd also like to hear some more opinions on Inzil. I'm mostly worried, Kit's death makes Inzil look worse and based on what I said yesterday, it could be to frame Inzil. And at the point, the wolves are going to be likely making kills to have the death lead to another innocent. Especially, if they were convinced that would be what it took for me to vote Inzil today, and then the 3 actual wolves could pile on.

And what about Kath then? I thought she's been assumed as an innocent for a while now, yet the wolves went for Kitanna instead.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Laeko's posts look like there's a good grasp on people. But that vote and "so who's going to break the tie?" looks bad. And, at this point, not something I'm going to write off as a newbie misunderstanding.

Maybe I should have a look at Laeko. I doubt there'll be much to find, though, whatever she(?) is, as she(?) has barely interacted with anyone else.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'd also like to hear some more opinions on Inzil. I'm mostly worried, Kit's death makes Inzil look worse and based on what I said yesterday, it could be to frame Inzil. And at the point, the wolves are going to be likely making kills to have the death lead to another innocent. Especially, if they were convinced that would be what it took for me to vote Inzil today, and then the 3 actual wolves could pile on.

And what about Kath then? I thought she's been assumed as an innocent for a while now, yet the wolves went for Kitanna instead.

Mmmn, well, if Zil's a wolf, then he ended the Day with the intention of somehow parlaying Legate's innocence into a "sign" of Kit's guilt– one of those two-for-one deals that wolves love so much– and then we have to suppose he changed his mind– or his packmates changed it for him. I don't see this as too much of a conundrum, since it must have been clear by then that his plan wouldn't work. It is true, though, that if Zil's innocent, the wolves would have had the *perfect* opportunity for a frame.

Or Kath could be a wolf. Sure. Maybe Sally was just in a good mood on Day One, or something. But there's not much could be done about that now– I really doubt Kath is going to find her neck in a noose toDay.

Or it could just be that, with two semi-known innocents to choose from, the wolves picked the one they judged less likely to be protected. It may that simple.

[Inziladun]

So Kitanna was innocent after all, and choosing Legate over Nerwen or Greenie didn't work out. Is that my reward for trusting Nerwen?

Both Laeko and Azura need to vote toDay. Even if we get a wolf, if Azura is modfired, the ratio toNight will be 3:2. With one more kill the wolves would win.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway. I am getting most frustrated by this game. Obviously, the wolves have been very clever, with their divide-and-conquer tactics, but I think it only fair to say they've had both luck and help from the village (what with the Hunter deciding to go kamikaze, and all– still scratching my head over that one). Not only that, but the number of ordos who have allowed themselves to be manipulated into going after me... well, again, frustrating. I mean, I suppose I should be flattered everyone fears me so much, but having to be on the defensive Day after Day, and to no purpose, is just draining.

And you don't think any of the suspicions of you might be justified? Some of those who have been "manipulated" are known to be sharp, independent thinkers. Yet they've all been duped?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mind you, I can't rule out something more complicated– for example Boro and Zil could be doing a particularly fine, elaborate and well-acted wolf-on-wolf routine.

I was thinking the same of you and Greenie after yesterDay, but then considered that her voting you so consistently seems to be pretty reckless, especially when you've garnered so much suspicion.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I was hoping to direct the wolves to Kit and Kath as sally's dreamed innocecents. So why Kit, and not Kath? And if Inzil is getting framed it's a masterful job by the wolves. Hoping I would jump on a vote against Inzil now? Still, Inzil looks highly suspect.

Why did you want to "direct the wolves?

Also, how would I be getting framed? TEW's kill reflected badly on me because of his final vote, but what else is there?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

There's nothing we can find from Azura. And nothing we can really do other than let Azura get modfired, if he doesn't come to vote.

As much as I don't want to see him show up out of the blue and make an uninformed vote, that would still be preferable to a modfire. At least with a vote he has a chance to do some good.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Laeko's posts look like there's a good grasp on people. But that vote and "so who's going to break the tie?" looks bad. And, at this point, not something I'm going to write off as a newbie misunderstanding.

She generally makes good points, though I'm not completely comfortable with her myself.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'd also like to hear some more opinions on Inzil. I'm mostly worried, Kit's death makes Inzil look worse and based on what I said yesterday, it could be to frame Inzil. And at the point, the wolves are going to be likely making kills to have the death lead to another innocent. Especially, if they were convinced that would be what it took for me to vote Inzil today, and then the 3 actual wolves could pile on.

I was suspecting Kit yesterDay, but I'm not clear on how her death looks bad for me.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And what about Kath then? I thought she's been assumed as an innocent for a while now, yet the wolves went for Kitanna instead.

I've had a tendency to overlook Kath because she's a lot more in the background than many others. That's fairly in character for her, but she needs a close look.

x/d with Nerwen: Yes, this took that long to write. Stupid work.

[Nerwen]

Laeko, Day One

#12. Very brief IC post.

#83.

My, oh my, but posts go by quickly here.
The quotes don't help. My poor head...

But, umm, look upon my cute pony icon and tell me, could you really suspect someone with a Twilight Sparkle avatar of being a cold-bloodthirsty killer?

Comment: I'll say! *shudders* ...Er... what I mean is, this post does seem quite self-conscious, considering nobody *had* suspected Laeko. However, it's really pretty typical Day One banter, and no doubt I am letting my intense loathing for all things My Little Pony get the better of me.

Didn't vote.



Laeko, Day Two
#134.

I'm Alive!
Boy do peole write a lot. But darned if I'm gonna be mod-fired that easily.

Quoting Boromir: #113 "But I can't see either you or Inzil being bothered much, by vague and slight suspicions if you were wolves."

Not to mention, it's usually very unwise to kill the person who voted for you. Then again, if there'd be any time TO do it, it would be the first kill, before "relationships" have been established and everyone's still all fuzzy about… well, everything!

And as has been pointed out, it's still early in the game, and it's just as likely that the wolves are as scared as the rest of us, wanting to make sure not to give themselves away. And hey, it does make a heck of a distraction to kill a target that they don't have much to go on.

Sally: #116, "benefiting us innocents?" You seem somewhat eager to point out your innocence, and that is making you seem suspicious. Then again, that's been pointed out before, so either you missed it, you forgot about it, or you're hoping that by repeatedly proclaiming your supposed innocence that you convince us that way. Have no idea whether that will work or not.

Cripes, I hate being a newbie, though the "protection" is nice, I suppose.

Comments: Seemingly, at some pains to play down the Night-kill ("the person who voted for you" being Elf-warrior for Zil). Goes after Sally, but on fairly reasonable grounds. Overacted "relief" at being still alive is perhaps a bit suss.


#150.

Kit, #137 I'm against protecting your lot. You're lucky you didn't really say anything yesterday.

Sounds like SOMEpony's jealous. Nah, just kidding. You drive a hard, cold logic, but you seem legit nevertheless. Maybe a little too serious, but legit.

And yes, to everypony else, I do understand that my protection ends tonight. I honestly didn't ask for it and the only reason I'm thankful for it is because it took me a while to get into the habit of checking this thread. I might actually be bummed to see Azura go, because it looks like he's gonna get modfired unless he does something last-minute.

Regarding Bom, I didn't like the first impression I got, but that was a combination of the vibe I got from his post combined with his usericon (I know, that's stupid, but his post and his picture seemed to communicate a logical predator cooly observing his prey). But first impressions over texted internet are easily misleading, so I'm going to hope he posts more and see what happens. Hopefully I'll wind up liking him as much as I like his screenname.

If Sally confessed to wanting to lynch TEW after he was proven innocent, my first conclusion is that she's being honest and confessing her mistake (though I missed the post in which she said it. Weird, I could have sworn I read everything after TEW died). Then again, upon further reading, I now understand the suspicion of lynch-apologizing.

Comment: Again with the ponies! Eager to learn the ropes (and avoid modfire). Could be anything.


#176.

Hmm, whom to logically choose...

Kitana is out, she seems to dislike me too much for her to be a werewolf.
Legate seems entirely legit, as well.
Boromir seems to be one of the brightest minds in the game, and while I find it hard to trust anyone whose logic is too intelligent for me to follow, my gut nevertheless tells me he's good to go.
I haven't myself noticed anything about Kath that makes me suspect them.
Same goes for Greenie.
Inziladun gets points for pointing out they started the Pitchwagon.
I'm keeping a close eye on Sally, though it seems as though I'm not the only one with suspicions.
And finally, I'm not going to vote for Bom because he hasn't been around to defend himself today.

Having read the discussion, that leaves Nerwen and Galadriel. What strikes me as both hilarious and confusing simultaneously is that the two seem to have engaged in quite the argument. Now, that could potentially mean that a) neither of them is is a wolf but they suspect each other, b) one of them is and is trying to make the other one look it so as to avoid attracting attention herself, or c) both of them are and one of the werewolves is getting betrayed. c) is illogical because it's far too early in the game. This is why I decided to wait further.

++Galadriel

Comment: Sucks up to Boro, the way Boro sucks up to tp. Simply sickening. Interprets Zil's saying he "started the Pitch-waggon" as a point in his favour, which I think is an odd way to look at it. Still poking at Sally– this and the previous comment do seem just a bit "off"– not actually making any kind of case or observation, but just reminding everyone else to suspect her (and even the first comment did that, as a matter of fact). Again I could be reading too much into this, as we are dealing with a newbie threatened with modfire for lack of participation, who would naturally be casting around for something to say. Nothing against the other comments. The vote itself is... odd. Laeko seems to be leading up to an explanation for her(?) choice of Galadriel55, but then... doesn't.



Laeko, Day Three
#268.

Boromir seems to have maintained logical arguments this entire time, and has come to earn my trust. If he's a werewolf, he deserves to kill me for how legit he's made himself look.

Nerwen is seeming a bit suspicious in terms of projecting a sort of argumentative vibe, but then again, most of what I've been noticing in terms of her posts is defending herself, and when everyone's paranoid (which we all should be), that's at least somewhat understandable.

After all, yesterday I'd been noticing Nerwen and Galadriel acting very similarly, and then I went and voted to lynch the blasted Hunter! Given none of the wolves have yet been lynched, my immediate conclusion for losing two gifteds in one night was "well, we're definitely screwed now."

#273.

++Nerwen

So, who shall break the tie?

Another odd vote.

Well, then. It's the usual "newbie, or newbie wolf"? question. As we all know, the two can look very much alike. I'd didn't expect to be able to reach any real conclusion, and I haven't– but it does at least seem within the bounds of possibility for Laeko to be a wolf-cub.

Thoughts?

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Zil

And you don't think any of the suspicions of you might be justified?

Well, I know they're not, you see, Zil. What with me not being a wolf, and all. (Er– what did you expect me to say?)

Originally Posted by ZIl

Also, how would I be getting framed? TEW's kill reflected badly on me because of his final vote, but what else is there?

See the possible Kit-death scenario outlined in my last post.

Originally Posted by Laeko

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88
Laeko's posts look like there's a good grasp on people. But that vote and "so who's going to break the tie?" looks bad. And, at this point, not something I'm going to write off as a newbie misunderstanding.
She generally makes good points, though I'm not completely comfortable with her myself.

You know, it's a funny thing. I had the impression that Laeko was making good points, and was on the ball, and all that, but now that I've looked at her posts in full, I see most of her comments on people are vague generalities like "seems legit". She actually says very little that's specific.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I know they're not, you see, Zil. What with me not being a wolf, and all. (Er– what did you expect me to say?)

Well, you could say you're a wolf.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See the possible Kit-death scenario outlined in my last post.

Ok. That's the one I crossed with and didn't have time to read it then.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know, it's a funny thing. I had the impression that Laeko was making good points, and was on the ball, and all that, but now that I've looked at her posts in full, I see most of her comments on people are vague generalities like "seems legit". She actually says very little that's specific.

The pony references aren't as alien to me, having a young daughter and all.

That said, some of the things she's said, like this:

But, umm, look upon my cute pony icon and tell me, could you really suspect someone with a Twilight Sparkle avatar of being a cold-bloodthirsty killer?

,

and this:

I'm Alive!

do seem somewhat unnecessary, but I can't distinguish newbie-wolf from newbie-innocent there either.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know, it's a funny thing. I had the impression that Laeko was making good points, and was on the ball, and all that, but now that I've looked at her posts in full, I see most of her comments on people are vague generalities like "seems legit". She actually says very little that's specific.

Those were some blatant attempts at flattery and...well...it works. In the same way my sucking up to tp normally does.

Originally Posted by Laeko

Boromir seems to have maintained logical arguments this entire time, and has come to earn my trust. If he's a werewolf, he deserves to kill me for how legit he's made himself look.

I know I've said similar things like this to Greenie before (and probably you too Nerwen). More flattery, but don't think the flattery looks wolvy.

[A Little Green]

Gah. I'm back here, sadly without having acquired enlightenment during my hours away. Looks like it's going to be a choice between Nerwen and Inzil for me toDay.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, off the top of my head, the only reason I can remember is my Day One vote for Kath. And I think that's pretty thin, too, quite frankly.

It would be. More than the fact that you voted Kath, though, I'm unnerved by how you first urged the Pitchwaggon on and then washed your hands as soon as it actually began to happen. Maybe I've been fixated on that, but nothing has made me change my mind, either. These latter Days, then, I'm not sure what to make of the fact that each Day you seem to have someone you get into a heated argument with (whether it was you who started it or the other I don't know), and those tend to end up dead. It confuses me more than causes suspicion, though.

Inzil, then, has been even more of a Mr. Agreeable than he usually is. Very smooth, you hardly remember he's there even though he posts relatively much, and looking at his votes he's always going for the easy lynch. On the other hand, I wonder if an evil Inzil would appear quite this blatantly like the classic uncontroversial wolf.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It would be. More than the fact that you voted Kath, though, I'm unnerved by how you first urged the Pitchwaggon on and then washed your hands as soon as it actually began to happen. Maybe I've been fixated on that, but nothing has made me change my mind, either. These latter Days, then, I'm not sure what to make of the fact that each Day you seem to have someone you get into a heated argument with (whether it was you who started it or the other I don't know), and those tend to end up dead. It confuses me more than causes suspicion, though.

I meant to make a note of this but forgot. But you reminded me.

Oh, wait going back to the half-analysis of Nerwen yesterday, I did. With the Pitch stuff, I think Nerwen came more of as a standard Lommy flip-flop and not trying to step away from it. There is a difference between what I would call a rambling Lommy flip-flop and trying to wash your hands clean of it.

I mean, to me. Nerwen saying:

On the other hand, his cases on both of them were sound enough, by Day One standards– and someone had to get the ball rolling

Pointing out that suspicions had to start from someone and Pitch did in fact get them started. And..

I was pointing out his perhaps opportunistic choice of targets– so yes, I suppose that's "casting suspicion". Is that a problem?

Here saying Pitch did target 2 people (Bom and G55) who normally do look suspect early, and it's something that Pitch would know.

I think it looks quite different than Inzil who clearly did try to back away the next day from vote. Then at the same time also make sure to point out he started the Pitch voting.

[A Little Green]

I am currently faced with several problems.

1) My two main suspects don't, at least at first glance (which is all I have time for), really look like fellows. Inzil's Day 3 vote could be seen as intended to save Nerwen, but on Day 2 he actually says he'd be ready to vote for Gal based on what Nerwen said, and I'm unconvinced that a Zilwolf, however crafty, would say that so openly. Their toDay's interactions don't look blatantly wolf-on-wolvish either, but that isn't really to say anything about whether they are or not.

2) If one of them is not a wolf, then, I have no idea who else it might be (though, as stated before, if Nerwen is a wolf I'd call it quite possible that Boro is, too).

3) Either way, there is still the third wolf. If it's Azura and s/he isn't modfired, I'm going to be more than a little frustrated. If Kath, I'm going to scream - though Boro's point about why she isn't dead yet was a good one. Who does that leave? Boro I'm very unsure about but if I had to say something more definite I'd say he was leaning innocent. Nerwen's analysis of Laeko was interesting, made me have second thoughts about a player I hadn't really analysed much - but at the same time, Laeko would be a very easy target for the wolves toDay.

Wait. Actually I just came up with an optimistic thought. I have a 50% chance of getting it right toDay!


EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

I think it looks quite different than Inzil who clearly did try to back away the next day from vote. Then at the same time also make sure to point out he started the Pitch voting.

For myself, I read Inzil's reminder that he started the Pitchwaggon as an only half-serious remark of no real importance. Inzil's Day 2 behaviour is interesting, though, both his apology for his Pitch vote (I'm with Kath on this one, I find that suspicious) and his reasons for voting Gal (what Nerwen said, and involvement in the waggon he himself was just as much a part of).

In fact, I'm flip-flopping like my renowned sister right now, but I'd be willing to bet that either Inzil is a wolf and Boro and Nerwen are innocents I should trust after all, or else Nerwen and Boro are the wolves and Inzil the one I should trust.

The problem here is that I need to go to sleep soon and vote before I do that - and if I vote for another innocent, we've lost the game. (Unless Azura is a wolf and does not appear.) So yeah, no pressure or anything.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think it looks quite different than Inzil who clearly did try to back away the next day from vote. Then at the same time also make sure to point out he started the Pitch voting.

Come on, Boro! How did I "back away"while still taking responsibility and admitting my fault? You can't have it both ways.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

3) Either way, there is still the third wolf. If it's Azura and s/he isn't modfired, I'm going to be more than a little frustrated. If Kath, I'm going to scream - though Boro's point about why she isn't dead yet was a good one. Who does that leave? Boro I'm very unsure about but if I had to say something more definite I'd say he was leaning innocent. Nerwen's analysis of Laeko was interesting, made me have second thoughts about a player I hadn't really analysed much - but at the same time, Laeko would be a very easy target for the wolves toDay.

I seriously doubt Azura is a wolf. I can't believe that such lack of activity would be supported by his mates. And to me, that surely would be a hollow victory.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Wait. Actually I just came up with an optimistic thought. I have a 50% chance of getting it right toDay!

You know the stakes. Choose well.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Inzil

I seriously doubt Azura is a wolf. I can't believe that such lack of activity would be supported by his mates. And to me, that surely would be a hollow victory.

Sadly enough, I agree.

Originally Posted by Inzil

You know the stakes. Choose well.

That doesn't exactly help, you know!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hello again! I am back! Happy, are you?

No, not really, though. I am just posting for Greenie now: only conveying the message that her internet is not working right now, so she cannot post, but she definitely will post at some point, at least an hour before DL.

That's it. Bye!

*crawls back into the mass grave*

[Kath]

I'm going to have to vote even earlier than usual toDay as I have to be in school earlier tomorrow morning.

So, as per usual, will read through the posts from toDay and see what has been going on, look at the votes from yesterDay and decide!

Will say I won't vote Azura for the same reasoning as others have given. Seriously doubt s/he is a wolf with so little participation.

[Kath]

Votes:
Greenie --> Nerwen (Can't say I'm totally getting this vote still. So, if the wolves had Seer options, they (with one of them being Nerwen) then looked only at the Seer options who would potentially dream of Nerwen, in order to avoid Nerwen being dreamed of and outed. Right. Technically this makes sense. I still think it is pretty convoluted reasoning to base a vote on, however. Also, Greenie states that this reasoning is in addition to previous suspicion of Nerwen, but there is no other suspicion bar that gained from this train of thought during the Day.)

Kath --> Greenie (Based on what I've just written above.)

Legate --> Nerwen (For being very jumpy and continuing to posit theories that were markedly different from his own which he considered ill-reasoned. Now, this debate raged yesterDay. sally did not leave extremely obvious clues. Therefore her posts are open to interpretation. Nerwen's 'jumpiness' could very easily be a result of the very forceful way that Legate argued against her yesterDay. Once I get on to reading toDays posts I think it will become clear whether that was the case or whether she is actually oddly jumpy.)

Kitanna --> Legate (For pushing buttons. Well, I can definitely see her reasoning. He was. In hindsight with the knowledge that he is innocent the reactions of those he 'pushed' needs to be addressed. The two people that most responded to that 'pushing' were Nerwen and Boro, and they did come under some heavy suspicion yesterDay. If either or both of them turn out to be wolves then, despite the unfortunate side effect of his death (!), Legate's 'pushing' may well prove useful.)

Nerwen --> Legate (Pretty much to save her own skin. Difficulty is, whatever her role she'd pretty much have done the same thing. If Gifted she knows she's more important to the village even if he's innocent. If ordo she knows nothing and assumes he's wolvish and a better lynch than her. If wolvish clearly she's going to want him lynched as she knows he's innocent.)

Inzil --> Legate (Was choosing between Nerwen and Legate to ensure his vote counted for something. This, at least, I like. It's not a throwaway or an 'easy' vote and it's a vote that's very hard to hide behind as a wolf. His reasoning for suspicion of Legate was stronger than anything he had on Nerwen and he did vote accordingly.)

Laeko --> Nerwen (Were Laeko not a newbie, I'd all but be proclaiming her wolvishness from the rooftops. Deliberately causing a tie, with absolutely no reasoning in her post? Can we say suspicious? I mean if she is a wolf then I take my hat off at the sheer audacity of that vote. It's difficult. I know newbies have sailed through under what turned out to be unwise automatic protection, but the rest of Laeko's posts hadn't raised any alarm bells for me.)

Boro --> Legate (Breaks the tie. Question: Did he have to? If he hadn't voted what would have happened with the lynch? Because I think that's rather important for deciding whether what he did makes him look good/bag/ugly.)

So, from the votes Greenie and Laeko seem most suspicious. Boro might be in there too but I'd like to know the answer to that question first.

Now on to toDay.

[Kath]

ToDay:

Nerwen - suggested two potential wolf pairings if their design is to set her up. Boro and Kit which she then largely discounted given Kit's innocence and Greenie and Zil. Given that is a rather narcissistic (though that doesn't necessarily mean incorrect!) theory I would like to see some evidence for these ideas. Comes to about the same conclusion as me about Laeko. Newbie or newbie wolf. That is the question.

Greenie - explains what she meant about sally. I understand the explanation now, but as I said, still think it's pretty convoluted and rather relies on a lot of factors coming together. Kind of disagree with her comment to Nerwen. If Nerwen is innocent then the amount of suspicion she found herself under yesterday, while likely as not partly due to her own posts, may well have been furthered by wolvish ploys. She can't know, but she can suspect and theorise, which is what she was doing. Greenie is arguing the speculative nature of the discussion is unhelpful, but it can produce ideas. However, I do agree that Nerwen's comment was overly decisive. It was stated as though it was fact rather than suggestion. Then analysed the votes and stated she suspected Inzil and Nerwen as a result. Inzil for voting for the easy target and Nerwen for previous reasons. Greenie then says Inzil and Nerwen don't look like fellows and tries to come up with other wolves. She says if Nerwen is a wolf then Boro may be one. However, in the next sentence she says she is leaning innocent on Boro. Again, can't have it both ways!

Boro - points out that of the two people he suggested were innocent the wolves went for Kit over me. Options would be because I am a wolf and therefore could not be killed; Inzil is a wolf and hoped to double bluff; Inzil is innocent and the wolves hoped to frame him toDay. I don't know Inzil's playing style very well. Is a fairly elaborate double bluff something he might try to do? Also mentions that Laeko has been very non-commital. This is true. I am struggling to remain ambivalent about her, but again I just keep coming back to her newbie status. Argues against Greenie's ideas on Nerwen 'washing her hands' of a Pitch-wagon.

Inzil - potentially interesting catch on Boro's wording about 'directing the wolves'. That said, Boro could hardly direct the wolves toward ... well ... wolves. Still it's odd wording. I don't like how Inzil doesn't actually make a clear point. It's all 'well I thought that but then' or 'could be this but that'. Yes, it's hard to be decisive, but constantly doing that makes it look like there's something to hide.

Well, that's it. Posting this, seeing if I've cross-posted, and then voting.

[Kath]

Aww no one else is here.

Alright then. Let's see.

I cannot bring myself to vote for Laeko. It may be foolish but ... well, if she was a wolf I think she'd have made more mistakes basically. Right now we can't tell if she's newbie or newbie wolf. I think if it's not obvious then it's more likely that she's newbie.

I am leaning innocent with Nerwen. I think her posts come across as overly dramatic and factual but that the ideas and arguments are sound. I wouldn't say players are being manipulated in such derogatory terms, but it's entirely possible that her already somewhat suspicious playing style is being enhanced by the wolves.

I'm not going to vote Boro. If we would have had a double lynch yesterDay if he'd not broken the tie I think it makes his vote look more innocent. If Shasta was simply going to flip a coin and choose then I think it makes him look less innocent. As I'm not going to get an answer to that I'm going to hope Shasta replies later and that the information can be used.

My choice then is between Greenie and Inzil (Boro would be my third wolf if there was no danger of a double lynch yesterDay).

++GREENIE

I still feel her vote against Nerwen yesterDay was based on some very convoluted reasoning, and as I am leaning innocent on Nerwen I obviously disagree with Greenie's continued suspicion of her.

And to bed.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

It would be. More than the fact that you voted Kath, though, I'm unnerved by how you first urged the Pitchwaggon on and then washed your hands as soon as it actually began to happen. Maybe I've been fixated on that, but nothing has made me change my mind, either. These latter Days, then, I'm not sure what to make of the fact that each Day you seem to have someone you get into a heated argument with (whether it was you who started it or the other I don't know), and those tend to end up dead. It confuses me more than causes suspicion, though.

And this kind of thing is precisely why I'm frustrated, and talking about "manipulation". In another game I'd be ready to vote Greenie for the contradiction between this post and her talk of "other reasons" she had stated "a hundred times already", not to mention falling back on the non-argument "nothing has made me change my mind"– which is very often the sign of a lazy wolf.

Problem: Galadriel55 did pretty much this exact same thing on Day Two, not to mention proclaiming herself a wolf more than once– and turned out innocent! This game is really making me doubt my own reasoning at every turn.

And just to clarify: no, it's not that I think no one has the right to suspect me, it's just that the way these suspicions have played out, the way certain innocents have behaved has been odd enough to make me think there's some funny business going on. (As, you know, there's meant to be.) I don't mean it's on one side either– I feel I've been manipulated into voting Gal and Legate. Again, I think the wolves, whoever they are, have been very clever in making use of everyone's mutual paranoia. Unless, of course, the wolves are Kath, Laeko and Azura, in which case they've been very clever at lying low and letting the village tear itself to pieces of its own volition. As I said in my first post, this, too, is possible.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen - suggested two potential wolf pairings if their design is to set her up. Boro and Kit which she then largely discounted given Kit's innocence and Greenie and Zil. Given that is a rather narcissistic (though that doesn't necessarily mean incorrect!) theory I would like to see some evidence for these ideas. Comes to about the same conclusion as me about Laeko. Newbie or newbie wolf. That is the question.

Nerwen to me is coming across as rather paranoid, and has the whole game. Next she'll be accusing us of stealing the strawberries.

Then again, hyper-defensiveness is also seen in Boro, what with the semantics arguments with Greenie and Legate.

Originally Posted by Kath

Greenie is arguing the speculative nature of the discussion is unhelpful, but it can produce ideas. However, I do agree that Nerwen's comment was overly decisive. It was stated as though it was fact rather than suggestion. Then analysed the votes and stated she suspected Inzil and Nerwen as a result. Inzil for voting for the easy target and Nerwen for previous reasons. Greenie then says Inzil and Nerwen don't look like fellows and tries to come up with other wolves. She says if Nerwen is a wolf then Boro may be one. However, in the next sentence she says she is leaning innocent on Boro. Again, can't have it both ways!

My only real issue with Greenie was what I said here, about Greenie's suggestion that Sally was killed because Nerwen was nervous, when it was Greenie who'd been actively voting for Nerwen.

Boro has at times been sharp and spot on, but other times it seems he's been reaching for reasons to suspect me, such as the deal about "backing away" from the fact that I voted for Pitch.

As for Kath, I've found she makes pretty good sense, though I've had an issue or two with her votes, like the Sally one, and the Day 2 vote for me, which honestly looked like a throwaway, even it's me saying so.

Originally Posted by Kath

My choice then is between Greenie and Inzil (Boro would be my third wolf if there was no danger of a double lynch yesterDay).

++GREENIE
I still feel her vote against Nerwen yesterDay was based on some very convoluted reasoning, and as I am leaning innocent on Nerwen I obviously disagree with Greenie's continued suspicion of her.

Interesting. Just like yesterDay....

x/d with Nerwen

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Boro has at times been sharp and spot on, but other times it seems he's been reaching for reasons to suspect me, such as the deal about "backing away" from the fact that I voted for Pitch.

Reaching? "Sorry, Pitch" (looks like the apology) and then "as I said yesterday, I had doubts about your wolvishness" (looks like a clear back track).

I might be reaching on your comments on the end of Day 2, where you pointed out to Nerwen that you were the one who started the Pitch-wagon. But, you backing away from the vote, is not a reach. Whether it was unintentional or you did it to make us think you didn't already know Pitch was innocent, you still backed off it.

As for Kath, I've found she makes pretty good sense, though I've had an issue or two with her votes, like the Sally one, and the Day 2 vote for me, which honestly looked like a throwaway, even it's ,e saying so.

Her sally vote was strange at the time, but not so much anymore now that sally didn't think it a big deal. Her vote for you on Day 2, however was well reasoned and she voted before the G55 and Nerwen really got into it.

You can't really call it a throw away when Kit had voted early for Bom and Greenie voted for Nerwen based on Nerwen's reactions to the Pitch-wagon. And when Kath voted at a time well before the G55-Nerwen business became a mess.

[Inziladun]

Less than three hours til DL.

No Laeko or Azura yet, I see.

We already have one vote.

Kath-->Greenie (1)

And the only one I'm fairly certain is not a wolf is Azura.

Lovely.

x/d with Boro

[Nerwen]

Here's a little deduction for you all.

If that first vote of the Day, Kath's on Greenie, was innocent-on-innocent, then it follows that at least one of the three who have posted since (Zil, me, Boro) must be a wolf. (I happen to know I'm not, but I'm trying to look at this from an objective standpoint.) With three wolves to four innocents, the wolves could jump on an innocent-on-innocent vote toDay. Therefore, either the wolves are playing it particularly safe, for some reason– perhaps Azura's one after all, and thus they can't count on the full pack being around– or that was *not* an innocent-on-innocent vote.

I don't know if this really helps, but it may.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If that first vote of the Day, Kath's on Greenie, was innocent-on-innocent, then it follows that at least one of the three who have posted since (Zil, me, Boro) must be a wolf. (I happen to know I'm not, but I'm trying to look at this from an objective standpoint.)

Well, I'm happy to know you know it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

With three wolves to four innocents, the wolves could jump on an innocent-on-innocent vote toDay. Therefore, either the wolves are playing it particularly safe, for some reason– perhaps Azura's one after all, and thus they can't count on the full pack being around– or that was *not* an innocent-on-innocent vote.

I keep waiting for Laeko and Azura to make an appearance. I still say that if Azura's a wolf, both he and his packmates ought to be ashamed.

[Boromir88]

I don't know how much thinking and analyzing I've got left in me. We should probably pool our preferences, because even if wolves are waiting around for an innocent-on-innocent, it woudn't do much good for us to split our votes either. We decide on one choice, and go with it. The votes may not tell us much tomorrow, but at this point, what are our choices?

I don't want to vote for Azura or Kath today. Right now, I would want to vote...

1. Inzil
2. Laeko
3. Greenie
4. Nerwen

Inzil? Laeko? Convince me otherwise. Now would be a good time.

Edit: crossed with Inzil.

[Inziladun]

Well, what's to say, Boro? "I'm not a wolf"? "Don't lynch me"?

I've tried to answer the things you and others have brought up. I've tried to be open about what I did, and why. Now you just have to make a choice. If you're on the good side, you're a sharp enough player to do the right thing. If you're evil, nothing I say is going to convince you anyway.

[Azura]

++Nerwen


I vote Nerwen because she is very jump about people suspecting her and the tip to make my vote......


(Sry for lurking alot just rly fraking busy..and also I still has my noob card)

[A Little Green]

Phew. I'm back! (Werewolf at 7 AM is - interesting.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

With three wolves to four innocents, the wolves could jump on an innocent-on-innocent vote toDay. Therefore, either the wolves are playing it particularly safe, for some reason– perhaps Azura's one after all, and thus they can't count on the full pack being around– or that was *not* an innocent-on-innocent vote.

I was thinking along the same lines, actually. I must now hope Kath is a wolf because, let's face it, we've already lost if she isn't.

I'd like to try Inzil toDay. Nerwen and Laeko, too. The rest - not so much. Kath - well, either she's a wolf or the game is lost, so basically lynching her would be a safe choice; but as I know none of you can really trust me in this, and there's still the possibility that one of the wolves doesn't show up, in which case the game isn't automatically lost after all, in which case I could think of better candidates than Kath, so be assured I won't vote for her.

Err.. that's one awful sentence, isn't it? Sorry, it's early morning after too little sleep, and I'm thinking as I write.


EDIT: x-ed with Inzil and Azura

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Azura

++Nerwen


I vote Nerwen because she is very jump about people suspecting her and the tip to make my vote......

Oh dear. Just when I was ready to say I back off from Nerwen and go for Inzil.