WW LXXXVII - The Valley Forge

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Finduilas

I'm confused as to how Pitchwife has suddenly earned several peoples mistrust. He was the first to vote for both Bom and Gal55, if I remember correctly, so he seems to be rather accurate at pinpointing forges... I'm guessing people are considering him to be a forge that is killing off all his members, and then he is going to try to win single-handedly?

I've thought Pitch pretty reasonable, myself. See what I said above.

There's the possibility, though, that the pack really was convinced they'd gotten the KD with G55. That would mean Rikae was sacrificed to give an air of innocence to Pitch and tp; or that after her "hints" of being the KD, it was thought leaving her alive would be too suspicious. That seems awfully convoluted to me, though.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Finduilas

I'm confused as to how Pitchwife has suddenly earned several peoples mistrust. He was the first to vote for both Bom and Gal55, if I remember correctly, so he seems to be rather accurate at pinpointing forges... I'm guessing people are considering him to be a forge that is killing off all his members, and then he is going to try to win single-handedly?

Basically, it's because Rikae both voted him and left some possible KD hints– and got Night-killed. In the light of that, his "accuracy" could be typical wolf-on-wolf voting– or, in this game with its strange dynamics, wolf-on-KD voting. I'm not saying it has to be so, understand, but that's the reasoning.

Btw– you're calling them "forges", are you?

Originally Posted by Zil

There's the possibility, though, that the pack really was convinced they'd gotten the KD with G55. That would mean Rikae was sacrificed to give an air of innocence to Pitch and tp; or that after her "hints" of being the KD, it was thought leaving her alive would be too suspicious. That seems awfully convoluted to me, though.

Yes. Zil, sorry, but this doesn't make sense at all– why would it give an "air of innocence" to Pitch and tp? Is it because of what you said before, that the wolves wouldn't kill Rikae for going after Pitch because G55, who had already gone after him, was dead? But that doesn't make sense either.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes. Zil, sorry, but this doesn't make sense at all– why would it give an "air of innocence" to Pitch and tp? Is it because of what you said before, that the wolves wouldn't kill Rikae for going after Pitch because G55, who had already gone after him, was dead? But that doesn't make sense either.

It just seems odd to me that if Pitch and tp, both repeatedly pointed out as baddies by G55, really are Forgers, why was Rikae seen as more of KD possibility than she? Both can't be the KD. What am I missing here?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It just seems odd to me that if Pitch and tp, both repeatedly pointed out as baddies by G55, really are Forgers, why was Rikae seen as more of KD possibility than she? Both can't be the KD. What am I missing here?

Well, the wolves don't get any extra information, do they?

[Finduilas]

My take is that since both G55 and Rikae voted against Pitch, and both turned out to be Forge members, neither one of them could be the KD. Though that is not fool-proof logic, I do think it makes sense... does it?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Btw– you're calling them "forges", are you?

I hadn't noticed, but I guess so.

Edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Finduilas

My take is that since both G55 and Rikae voted against Pitch, and both turned out to be Forge members, neither one of them could be the KD. Though that is not fool-proof logic, I do think it makes sense... does it?

No, I'm sorry– I don't understand that at all. Are you following Zil's reasoning here?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I was hoping Pitch would have replied.

Sorry, I have to sleep sometimes.

OK, let's have it out. What Mith calls "that horror" shortly before DL yesterDay revolved around tp's query about my colour scale:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Pitch- your list. Can I ask, is everyone precisely where you feel they ought to be, or has one or more individuals been shifted slightly for the purpose of good strategic play?

and my reply to that:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

More or less where I think they belong - but you'll have noticed that the person who should go in White-Hot must be somewhere else.

tp seems to assume that by saying this, I was unambiguously implying the role of the person I would have put in White-Hot, and thus unambiguously implying my own role in a way that comes close to a reveal worthy of modfire. I don't see that this is true.

Rikae picked up the idea and ran with it, claiming that the fact that I hadn't been modfired indicated that I was lying. Her being killed in the Night obviously seems to corroborate that claim.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I don't see what good could come for one of the Forgers to die in an attempt to look like the KD, not after having Bom and Gal lynched. Unless if somehow Gal was the KD, and Rikae covered for the rest of her pack to make it look like she was? Again, I don't see the benefit there.

Let's say if I was correct in my suspicions yesterDay, and given that quite a number of people seemed to trust me, wouldn't it make sense for the Forge to do their utmost to discredit me? Especially if the last Forger hasn't been much suspected otherwise and thinks s/he has a reasonable cance to make it?

Rikae as the KD would implicate me, tp and McCaber as possible Forgers. Suspects enough to occupy the village for a while, and for Rikae's packmate to reduce the number of innocents via Night kills in the meantime.

As to who I think that packmate is, I made a case against her yesterDay.
++Nerwen

[Nerwen]

What th–?

Yes, Pitch, I saw you flung out some wild accusations yesterDay– after I left and said I might not be back again, by the way– but they weren't anything I'd call a case. I've been trying to be absolutely fair and not let that prejudice me against you toDay– but that's it–

++Pitchwife.

And I don't think I'll be making any retractions, either.

And as I was about to explain to Zil and Finduilas: Zil's argument doesn't make sense because the wolves would have no way of telling when the real KD was dead. It's that simple.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And as I was about to explain to Zil and Finduilas: Zil's argument doesn't make sense because the wolves would have no way of telling when the real KD was dead. It's that simple.

Which is why I ask: assuming Pitch is a Forger, who would have worried the pack more yesterDay, G55 or Rikae?

[Nerwen]

You know what, Pitch? It seems to me that if the wolves decided to kill someone they thought was the KD, and her death would point to one or both of them– they might try cooking up some kind of weird framing scenario to explain it. I notice you jumped right in with that theory earlier, too.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Which is why I ask: assuming Pitch is a Forger, who would have worried the pack more yesterDay, G55 or Rikae?

Why does it matter? G55 was dead anyway by the end of yesterDay; Rikae was still alive.

[Nerwen]

Do you get my point now, Zil? Forge member A and Forge member B both drop hints and both accuse the same person. Member A is lynched– role unconfirmed. Does this mean the Forge can consider Member B cleared of KD-ness? Well, no, surely. Not unless they're given extra info on the dead party's role, anyway.

–By the way, though, a complicating factor in all this is that there's no reason *normal* wolf-on-wolf tactics can't be happening in this game. People seem to be assuming it isn't, but I don't know why. I would say that if Pitch is a wolf, he initially went after G55 in the more usual way– I don't think she started dropping hints until much later. (Though again, we don't know what happend at Night.) So that might answer your question a different way: they may not have ever thought she was the KD.

As for Pitch– well, I may have let my temper get the better of me after having been voted out of the blue like that. But he does sound like a baddie clutching at straws to me.

[Finduilas]

++Nerwen

If Pitch must die, I think we should do a double lynching, as dangerous as it may be. I think most of us will agree that Pitch is something, either a forge member, or the KD (either way, a forge member). If he is the KD, then Nerwen is the last of the Forges. So, I say, either just kill Nerwen, (and if the game does not end at that point, pop off Pitch the next day) or kill both of them. This method will take cooperation from everyone, so I guess we would all have to agree... I'm really in favor of just killing Nerwen, personally, and worrying about Pitch tomorrow. Pitch and Nerwen have already made their votes for each other. With my vote, there are 3 votes against Pitch, and 2 votes against Nerwen. Worst case scenario with this is that we get one Forger (Pitch) and one Ordo (Nerwen), and best case scenario is pretty bad too, we get one Forger (Nerwen) and we get the KD (Pitch). I suppose that it would be possible to get it the other way around, with Nerwen as the KD and Pitch as the forger, but Nerwen's vote for Pitch seemed more of a "take that" vote, than a "your a forger and I'm the KD" vote.

Edit: x/ed with Nerwen, post #292

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, Pitch, I saw you flung out some wild accusations yesterDay– after I left and said I might not be back again, by the way–

Yes. That was one reason I voted G55 and not you.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've been trying to be absolutely fair and not let that prejudice me against you toDay–

In other words, you haven't pushed Rikae-as-KD and used it to accuse me outright, because that might have looked like you had something to gain from framing me; you've just collected her possible KD-hints, surrounding them with a lot of question-marks and could-be's, and left it to the village to draw the conclusions. So far it seems to work.

If I'm a Forger and either G55 or Rikae was the KD, why did both of them accuse me yesterDay? And what do you make of this?

Originally Posted by Rikae

G55, you do realize being lynched by day is no longer much help, right? Or is it?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Finduilas

If Pitch must die, I think we should do a double lynching, as dangerous as it may be. I think most of us will agree that Pitch is something, either a forge member, or the KD (either way, a forge member). If he is the KD, then Nerwen is the last of the Forges. So, I say, either just kill Nerwen, (and if the game does not end at that point, pop off Pitch the next day) or kill both of them.

I think this works for me. I'm also keeping in mind the fact that Pitch has voted for Forgers two Days straight, and Nerwen chose McCaber over G55.

[Inziladun]

++Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Finduilas

Let's lynch both of them etc.

Naturally, I am not on board with this at all. In fact, if there was any other reason whatever to suspect Finduilas, I'd be thinking this was attempted damage control by Team Evil... but there isn't, so I'm guessing she's just a newbie who doesn't realise someone with a good voting record can still be a wolf.

I think most of us will agree that Pitch is something, either a forge member, or the KD (either way, a forge member).

If he was really the KD, I should think he'd have been modfired by now– at any, I'd think the real KD would be afraid to sail that close to the wind in the first place.

EDIT:since Finduilas.

[Nerwen]

Good night.

[Nerwen]

And fine, whatever. I suppose Zil's the other one.

[the phantom]

Okay, time to make sure we have this in hand.

Q: If Rikae was the KD, who is innocent?
A: She defended Gal55.
Q: Was she correct?
A: No.

Q: If Rikae was the KD, which dwarf do we lynch?
A: Pitch.
Q: Why only one person? Aren't there two more forgers?
A: Um....

Okay, so let's be serious here- I didn't say any of this earlier because I wanted to see which direction all of you tried to go with things, but be honest- the only way Rikae was the KD was if the KD was under special instructions from the Moddess not to go after all the Forgers and even defend one or two of them.

If we work under the assumption that she wasn't thet KD, what then is the logic for her kill?

1) It's a terribly devious and shocking plot that we can't understand at this point that will somehow lead to victory for the Forge.
***or****
2) The Forge lost two members in the first two days and it knew it would lose another today if they didn't do something insane at night, plus Rikae was feeling a bit disgusted with the situation and was happy to be killed in the desperate gamble.

(In case you weren't aware, I'm getting at option #2 making the most sense.)

[the phantom]

Nerwen & Pitch are tied at 3.

Yet to vote- Eruhen, Sally, Mith, and Phantom.

[Finduilas]

There seems to be a thought that Pitchwife, if he is the KD, deserved modfiring. He has not said anything to deserve modfiring, I believe, he has merely pointed out one Forge after another. This, I think, may be a bit foolhardy as a KD, but it isn't cheating. He never said anything like "I know for certain that these people are Forges" "Trust me, I have inside information" or anything of that sort. He always, when he gave reasons for his vote, used their comments on the thread. So, he isn't necessarily the KD (though I think he is, as I don't think that he is a forge member), but even if he is, I don't think he cheated. So, we can't take the fact that he hasn't been Modfired as proof that he isn't the KD.

[Eruhen]

Still not at home yet, but at least I have internet access. I don't have time to post my thoughts now, but if I get home with enough time before DL, I plan on it.

For now, though...

++Nerwen

[the phantom]

Findu- really, don't talk about that, and especially not so directly! If you think you have spotted the KD why say it? That is what begs modfire more than anything.

If I write in a code where every 27th letter of my posts spells out- "I am KD, please lynch person X" have I revealed? No, not if no one sees it.

If I do the same but two Ordos see it and follow it, have I revealed? No, not if they don't say anything to alert the rest of the village and Mod.

If I do the same but two Ordos talk too much about it and soon my role is an accepted fact, have I revealed? Darn right, I have.

However wrong it sounds logically, revealing is as much a function of reaction by the reader as it is action by the revealer.

[Mithalwen]

Eh? I am clearly missing something.... off too look.... is this a fishing expedition or are you serious? I always have a background level of suspicion of Nerwen because she is so clever but frankly there are at least six people I find more suspicious and four of them have voted for her so far.....

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Boro

but don't let phantom convince you I will make some miraculous return to save and prove some genius plan of his. I won't and if he tries that one again, he should probably be lynched.

*snicker*

It is I, Phantom, your secret village Seer! Folwren decided to have a Seer in this game but not tell anyone. And on Night 1 I discovered Boro was in fact a trusty WerePenguin!

If only he were here to prove me correct...

[the phantom]

Anyway, could Mith & Sally please go ahead and vote for Nerwen, and could Boro and McCaber if they're around change their votes.

Because frankly I'd rather that my vote not be needed so that I can cast another joke-vote on Pitch.

[Mithalwen]

No Mith wouldn't because even if she did find Nerwen the most suspicious she doesn't find joke votes amusing.

[Finduilas]

Phantom, I understand your point (about not talking about it so directly), and in a sense I apologize... but not really. I think all the comments about modfiring need to be addressed. No one in this game has gotten anywhere close to a reveal, true or false (except you, you sneaky seer), so I was just saying that no one has cheated...

[the phantom]

Reasons to find Nerwen suspicious-

Nerwen, Bom, and Gal55 all used similar pack terminology right from the start. You know how that sort of thing works- if you discuss things with people certain ways of phrasing get stuck in your head.

Her attack on the trusty McCaber was unfair, as referenced here.

And then there was her Day 1 reaction to my plan, reacted to here by Pitch (in the quote) and me.

[Mithalwen]

I have used pack terminology, found Mc Caber suspicious and was anti your plan. And I know I am ok.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mith

I have used pack terminology, found Mc Caber suspicious and was anti your plan.

You didn't use the terminology off the bat the same way the others did Day 1.

And the way in which you were anti-plan was much different. I mean really- go back and read Nerwen on Day 1. It definitely seems to be saying, "Crap, this sucks. Please rule against it, Moddess. But I'd better not say that- that would look too suspicious."

Not to mention she defended Gal55 (I forgot to mention that in my last post). Certainly that matters when added to the pile.

Plus there's the fact that some village members keep being right about things, so perhaps they are right again?

Originally Posted by Mith

And I know I am ok.

Well of course you are.

[the phantom]

Anyway, there are only two options today- Nerwen and Pitch.

If you vote for Pitch, you must believe that Rikae was the KD. My post here says why that does not make sense.

So, the only option left is Nerwen, just as Gal55 was really the only option yesterday after her late-day squirming and suicide.

[the phantom]

Hmmm... Done some rereading, and....

I assume Sally will vote Nerwen, because if we go with the Rikae as KD option then Sally looks like the next logical lynch choice after Pitch, as Rikae's comment to her here was pretty well the only accusation Rikae made yesterday other than Pitch.

So, in order to vote Pitch today, Sally must also be evil.

Another reason why Nerwen seems the obvious choice.

[Mithalwen]

Not necessarily. There are retractable votes. I will have to vote for someone after missing the last one and I would prefer it to be a positive vote but...

[Mithalwen]

Not for me.

[the phantom]

Anyway, like I said, if you're going to vote for Pitch you must prove logically that Rikae was the KD.

Plus things will work the same, anyway. Lynch Pitch today, we probably just end up lynching Nerwen tomorrow anyway.

And if we lynch Nerwen today, we could very well end up having to lynch Pitch tomorrow (we can't be certain about special role instructions certain individuals may have been given).

So... be back later.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And fine, whatever. I suppose Zil's the other one.

Negative.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Eh? I am clearly missing something.... off too look.... is this a fishing expedition or are you serious? I always have a background level of suspicion of Nerwen because she is so clever but frankly there are at least six people I find more suspicious and four of them have voted for her so far.....

And who would be the better choices than Nerwen, and why?

x/d with phantom

[Finduilas]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

And who would be the better choices than Nerwen, and why?

Well, if four of the six voted for Nerwen, that includes you, me, Eruhen, and Pitch. I'm guessing the reason Mith distrusts me is because I trust Pitch...?

[Finduilas]

Mith, all four of us can't be Forges...

anyhow, this is my last post for the Day. Chose wisely, my friends.