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11-05-2009, 09:51 PM | #281 |
The Werewolf's Companion
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Then he wouldn't have said Fea was a possible Bear, because he would have known otherwise. He probably would have pegged her as a 'possible', well, whatever it is she is. If you really follow your own reasoning, he would have dreamed someone else entirely. But then he would have mentioned something about them. Your logic is either pushing his posts too far or not far enough.
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11-05-2009, 09:53 PM | #282 | |||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 11-05-2009 at 09:55 PM. Reason: x-posted with Inzil and Lottie |
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11-05-2009, 09:54 PM | #283 |
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Then by your own logic, he would have dreamed of Fea the first night, in which case he wouldn't have said she was a possible bear, because he would have known otherwise. He would have dreamed of someone else entirely.
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11-05-2009, 09:56 PM | #284 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Or that he was laying out his dreams. In the best way he could think of. As I said.
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11-05-2009, 09:57 PM | #285 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
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Hey guys, sally would like me to inform you that her internet decided to die and she won't be around for the rest of the Day. Carry on. ^_^
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11-05-2009, 10:00 PM | #286 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Anyway, this is an academic point, because Hakon left no clues that would point to the role of any unknown. Or is your argument a roundabout way of saying that he dreamed of Fea and must have found her innocent, since he didn't denounce her as a wolf? Most unlikely. I know Hakon's weird, but listing someone as a possible villain when he'd just dreamed her innocent? Come on. Edit:X'd with multiple Laris and Loslotes, Zil, and the moddess.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 11-05-2009 at 10:04 PM. |
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11-05-2009, 10:05 PM | #287 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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And it can't be something he would have pointed to later in the game, if he revealed as a "these were who I thought was the bear in this order so I dreamed of them in this order"?
And this is assuming Fea is innocent. Which I'm not, as she's Fea in general(and writes poetry). Yes he lists them as possible bears and we know one of them was the Bear, but he never out right says it nor does he vote for him.
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11-05-2009, 10:08 PM | #288 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Clearly, since Borangutan already died.
My theory at this point is that Hakon dreamed of me first (since he listed me first), hoping Mira would meta-make me bear; he would have then learned that my role is nothing special, and tried to subtly leave a hint that he learned no evil roles, but that he was working on it. Which leads to the fact that he didn't actually know Borangutan's role, and therefore Hakon's death was probably actually coincidence.
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11-05-2009, 10:10 PM | #289 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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This is a pointless sidetrack, Lari. EDIT:X'd with Fea.
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11-05-2009, 10:42 PM | #290 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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While I don't particularly suspect Greenie (I'd rather vote Cabbie), I also really don't want to die.
And I have a sinking suspicion that everybody's hoarding their votes for a bit of last minute confusion. And that bothers me because it means I might die, and frankly, my death won't be particularly useful for anybody. So ++Greenie
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11-05-2009, 10:44 PM | #291 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Greenie--> Sally
McCaber--> Nog Roa--> Greenie Nog--> Greenie Pitchwife--> Fea SPM--> Greenie Zil--> Fea (2) Lottie--> McCaber Fea--> Greenie (4)
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11-05-2009, 10:54 PM | #292 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I don't like how Inzil jumped on the whole let's get the Hakon voters. I don't like his tone in his posts and I don't think Greenie is that guilty and going by the theory that Fea was Hakon's first dream she can't be something bad as he probably would have voted for her therefore:
++Inzil
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11-05-2009, 10:56 PM | #293 |
Reflection of Darkness
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Right now it comes down between McCaber and Fea for my top vote choices. McCaber for his vote toDay as his reasons behind it were just terrible in my opinion, and Fea because she is withholding her opinions (I asked her why she suspected the people on her list and she never replied). Also this whole theory that Hakon dreamed Fea is a bit absurd. It doesn't really doing anything except perhaps exonerate Fea, which of course is what she wants.
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11-05-2009, 11:00 PM | #294 |
Reflection of Darkness
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Hmm...I'm still worried about Fea, but I think I'll give her the benefit of the doubt toDay since she can be an enigma and I've been wrong about her before. But I really would like to hear more opinions from her come toMorrow.
Meanwhile McCaber has been a submarine. ++McCaber
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11-05-2009, 11:00 PM | #295 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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All right, then–
++Fea I was moving away from voting her before, but now it's starting to look like there might be something between her and Lari, and it's too late to lynch the latter. EDIT:X'd since Lari.
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11-05-2009, 11:00 PM | #296 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Deadline. Stop posting.
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11-05-2009, 11:04 PM | #297 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Wilwa has asked to be taken out of the game. She was an Ordo.
Greenie was lynched. She was the Cobbler.
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11-06-2009, 11:00 PM | #298 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Lari was killed. She was an ordo. I'm sure Mira will come up with a fabulous narration whence she returns.
The Living: Brinn Fea Inzil Loslote McCaber Nerwen Nog Pitchwife Roa sally Saucepan Man The Dead: Mira - moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1 Nienna - co-moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1 Morsul - Hunter, lynched Day 1 Hakon - Seer, suffocated and stuck up chimney Night 2 Boro - werebear, throat slit Night 2 Wilwa – Ordo Grennie – Cobbler, Lynched Day 2 Lari- Ordo, death via fabulous narration on Night 3 It is now DAY 3. Start entertaining me.
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11-06-2009, 11:15 PM | #299 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I had a whole long post written up explaining to Lari why her theory on Hakon dreaming Fea was pretty absurd, and now it's useless. *sigh*
So, quickly before I head out for the night (my time), it doesn't need stating but I'll say it anyways: The wolves could not have known that Greenie was the cobbler. Ergo, her lynching should be looked at as the lynching of an innocent. Briefly: Me- you'll have to draw your own conclusions. Nogrod- put Greenie in the lead. He had been going back and forth about her for since Day 1, so his vote didn't exactly come out of nowhere. His timing in relation to my vote may be coincidence, or it may be that he saw an opportunity. SPM- his reasons for voting Greenie basically echoed mine, though up till that point, I don't believe *note: I have not had time to read through carefully* he expressed suspicion towards Greenie before that. This is the second time he has helped lynch an innocent. Fea- also her second time lynching an innocent. Voted Greenie to save herself. I suppose it's understandable, but I didn't at all like the way she went along with Lari's theory. It was extremely convenient for her, of course, but the flaws in it were obvious, as Nerwen pointed out. I also think her post about lynching her not helping the village sounded very wolfish. After the events of the last Day, she looks the most suspicious to me. Also, not to alarm anyone, but the wolves now make up more than a third of the village. We are running out of time. Lynch an innocent toDay and ToMorrow, and we lose. We can't afford another mistake.
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11-06-2009, 11:21 PM | #300 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
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Lari? I had her pegged as a likely wolf, owing to her Day 1 vote, and what I saw as an over-the-top response to the suspicions raised about her. And Greenie was the cobbler.
Well, we're not doing as badly as we might be. The bear and the cobbler are done for. A wolf needs to be found toDay, though. I still don't have good feelings about Fea, but Lottie is right up there with her now. Quote:
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So, which is it? Guilty, or genuine? This ought to be an interesting Day. x/d with Roa
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11-07-2009, 12:23 AM | #301 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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First off, let me apologize for a knee-jerk reaction on Nogrod. After reading his posts, he really seems good, and to be fair I was pretty sketchy those Days.
So now that I have a good chunk of time to play with here, let's see what we can find.
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11-07-2009, 01:37 AM | #302 | |||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Here's an interesting point: consider that if Fea is innocent, she and Lari would have surely looked very like the Lovers to the wolves (unless it's in the rules that the Lovers are opposite sex; I couldn't see that anywhere). However, that would not be an incentive to the wolves to kill Lari, but rather the reverse. You see, in this game the Lover-rules are as follows: Quote:
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11-07-2009, 04:51 AM | #303 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
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Greenie -> sally (sally - 1)
McCaber -> Nogrod (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1) Roa -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 1) Nogrod -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 2) Pitch - > Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 2, Fea - 1) SpM -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 1) Inzil -> Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 2) Loslote -> McCaber (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1) Fea -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1) Lari -> Inzil (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1, Inzil - 1) Brinn -> McCaber (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 2, Inzil - 1) Nerwen - Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 3, McCaber - 2, Inzil - 1) Did not vote: sally OK, I have not got much time and I am not going to be around for the rest of the Day until much nearer the deadline, so some quick thoughts. Lari as Nightly victim - She was quite high in many people's suspicion lists, including mine. However, I thought that her annoyance toward the end of yesterDay at being so suspected looked pretty genuine. Quite a few people (again, including me) had made the point that there was likely to be a Wolf among the Hakon voters, and so Lari's death points at sally. But, it may be that this was intended. Or might that be a double bluff? I share the wariness expressed about Fea for her willingness to take on board Lari's Hakon dream theory. But I wonder whether a possible reason for the Wolves picking on Lari may have been to draw attention to this and possible place more pressure on Fea. If Fea is innocent, it would have been clear to the Wolves that she is a potential lynch victim toDay, so it's something that they will have wanted to encourage. As for Greenie, it is fair to point out that, to the Wolves, she would likely have appeared as an innocent. That said, it is also a possibility that they spotted her as a possible Cobbler and avoided voting for her. Of the Greenie voters, Fea does look the worst, but then she did vote to save herself. I can't really comment on my vote and I am not sure that there is much to be drawn for Roa's and Nogrod's votes. Other than that, I still don't like McCaber's vote for Nogrod and I am wary of the way that he has come on now and backed off from it, after all the suspicion that it attracted yesterDay. Given what I have said above, Loslote's vote for McCaber is, I think, understandable. And I am not really able to conclude much from the votes for Fea without knowing what she is. If she is innocent, though, it is quite possible that there was at least one Wolf here, possibly two, taking the opportunity to try to get her lynched.
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11-07-2009, 09:52 AM | #304 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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All y'all shouldn't forget the easiest explanation for my bonding with Lari at the end of day: she had a pretty solid point. (Clearly I wasn't bonding with her because we were lovers or packmates.)
I had already floated the theory that Borangutan might have killed Hakon for less than Seer-ly reasons. The longer I play, and the more I look at Hack's posts, the less convinced I am that he dreamed of anybody he listed. However (and here's where it changed): I know my role. And I know Hakon's logic. (Sorry mods) He was playing meta even though it was forbidden. Meta reasoning for who my own personal Stick would make her own personal Crazy Bear for her own personal Amusement? If I was using Hakon's against-the-rules logic, I'd have dreamed of myself first. Hakon's list of people are ones closest to the mod. And I'm the most visible/notorious of those in that category. And while at first I was thinking maybe Borangutan was sensitive to Hakon's hints, that doesn't really matter either way, because evil people are hyper-sensitive to criticism and suspicion. I'm thinking now that Hakon's dreams were supposed to go in the order he listed even though they were preemptively ended. And upon learning that I number amongst the innocents, there was no need for him to throw himself under any buses to ensure my destruction. Hence his vagaries. "Don't think of the bear right away" might have corresponded with my name coming first on the list, but that might be stretching it too far. But it is possible that his insistence that we not look for the bear right away correlated with the fact that I was the name one saw on his list right away, and that you shouldn't look at me when aiming for evil. Then again, he might have just been nattering and it didn't mean anything. There's always that.
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11-07-2009, 03:01 PM | #305 | |||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
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Pretty slow toDay, really. No doubt it'll be followed by a frantic hour or two before DL.
Quote:
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Then, as mentioned, he uses meta-reasoning to say who the bear could be. I edited out the first bit. Quote:
That's all I really see there. I'm sure we'll be enlightened post-game, but for now we're left to work things out on our own. I think any attempt to use that to point to one's innocence is a major reach, and I can only see furry intentions behind it, whether one tries to qualify it or not. Then again, Lari thought there could be something to it, and she obviously was not evil. Regardless, I'm leaning toward another vote for Fea toDay.
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11-07-2009, 03:38 PM | #306 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Dear Village,
POST PLEASE. Love, Me.
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11-07-2009, 03:46 PM | #307 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Dear Village,
I second Nienna. Kthx. Love, me
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11-07-2009, 04:08 PM | #308 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I thought I was the only one not around and thought I should post first to say I'm around again but it seems it has been a real quiet Day indeed...
I'll go into reading.
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11-07-2009, 04:29 PM | #309 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
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Ok, I'm here and catching up.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
11-07-2009, 04:31 PM | #310 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
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I'm here too, by coincidence.
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11-07-2009, 04:50 PM | #311 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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To start: no, Fea. If Hakon had dreamed of you and found you innocent, he would not have listed you as a possible bad guy. He would have left you out of a bad guy list. He would have tried to hint at your innocence. And the same reasoning that says he would dream you also applies to Boromir. The fact the your insisting on this makes you look far worse to me.
To continue: Having seriously considered the death of Lari, I have an idea. You see, we are hunting wolves, so when we see a villager over-react to suspicion, we think wolf. The wolves, however, are hunting something else all together, and there is another reason a villager may over-react to suspicion. I believe the wolves thought Lari was the ranger. Which means they chose killing her rather than let her live and gamble on lynching her. To finish: where is everyone? We can't afford to lose to quietness. Those people who haven't shown up yet really need to participate. I'll be around for maybe another hour and a half, and then I have to go.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
11-07-2009, 04:58 PM | #312 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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The end of Day2 was odd indeed...
As I read through those final hours last night I was quite convinced they were both wolves: Lari panicking against the suspicions but also offering this odd theory about Hakon's dreams to make Fea innocent and then Fea running to the stage in the end... But Lari was innocent. What Nerwen said about the POV of the wolves actually makes the situation even more confusing. The kill seems to point to Fea and the question remains whether that is bold bluffing (Fea is a wolf) or a set-up by the wolves (Fea is innocent). I would say it'd be a set-up by the wolves, but Fea's insistence on speculating about Hakon's dreams yet toDay makes me kind of worried. Like Inzil said: any attempt to use Hakon's possible dreams to point to one's innocence is a major reach... I mean I was already baffled on the postings of yesterDay as to why people mulled over whether Hakon had revealed someone's innocence as it quite clearly was not the case? Let me quote the famous first post once again - but look at the bolding this time. Quote:
It looks like a very solid tactics from the seer with no major concern on his life on Day1; hinting we should look at other problems, casting the name out in the open but not in a too obvious fashion (like mentioning only Boro). But how does one turn that and the other "infamous statement": Quote:
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11-07-2009, 05:01 PM | #313 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
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x/d with Nog
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11-07-2009, 05:05 PM | #314 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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McCaber: As you seem to be around, why don't you share your thoughts on people as I don't quite remember you saying too much in this game thus far?
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
11-07-2009, 05:06 PM | #315 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Nog, I never said that Hakon conclusively said anything about anybody's innocence. Because he didn't conclusively say anything at all except that he was using forbidden logic.
That being said, he definitely dreamed of somebody, and since I don't think he dreamed of Boro, that leaves me to wonder who he did dream of. If he didn't dream of Boro, then the logical conclusion is that he dreamed of one of the other people he mentioned. Hence, maybe he dreamed of me, maybe he didn't. This really has been a dead day... I was gone for hours and was expecting a slew of posts upon my return. Apparently I expected wrong. Let me think for a bit and I'll get back to everyone.
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11-07-2009, 05:06 PM | #316 |
The Werewolf's Companion
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I'm here. Getting caught up. Shouldn't take long - we're still on the same page.
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11-07-2009, 05:09 PM | #317 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Fea, what logic possibly draws you to the conclusion the Hakon did not dream Boro? He told us to not worry about the bear, then he listed possible bear suspects, one of whom was the actual bear. You're grasping and it's not fooling anyone.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
11-07-2009, 05:11 PM | #318 |
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About the Nerwen confusion: I honestly have no idea. I didn't realize I'd added her in that first list. I was still sorting my thoughts out. That first list really wasn't very good - I forgot McCaber and included Nerwen. Major oops. Sorry.
EDIT: xed with Roa.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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11-07-2009, 05:20 PM | #319 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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And what's the point of speculating Hakon's possible dreams anyway as there is nothing conclusive - or even things that could be read as hints in any half-reliable way?
Even if you say that Hakon's posts are not conclusive Fea, I don't understand why are you continuosly referring to them as possibly showing you're innocent? Or at least that we should take them as pointing towards your innocence? Or to just only underline the possibility that they might point to your innocence if read on the "right angle"? Isn't that a bit deliberate? And still, looking at what happened actually suggests a different interpretation.
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11-07-2009, 05:28 PM | #320 | |
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