Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

Maybe they are just too sporty, like you often are, and rather would prefer to sportily lynch us [/sarcasm]

Anyway, on a serious note. As for Kitanna's death, it seems likely to me that indeed she was just a safe kill which creates no trail, is not going to be protected, maybe even could be assumed to be the target of a Seer dream, given how little was known about her? Anyway, there is still the question "before" this one: that is, okay, but why not one of the Rangers and co.
Well, I guess the reason would be an attempt to create confusion. There is basically no other explanation, obviously. But let me try to construct how it would work if Ranger A or Ranger B is the real one and the other was a Wolf, maybe that will help to cast some light on it (I am doing that for myself, "on the run", not sure if it will produce any valuable results, but let's see).

Case 1: Hakon is a real Ranger, Wilwa is a Wolf
The Wolves know Wilwa is one of them, therefore they also know Hakon is a real Ranger. Hakon, the real Ranger, said he can protect the Seer toNight. Therefore, there is no sense for them to attack the Seer. They could attack the Ranger, but what would that mean? That would mean instant death for Wilwa on the following Day. So not clever, possibly, better to keep the confusion around for a while and let us lynch a few more innocents at least?

Case 2: Wilwa is the Ranger, Hakon is a Wolf
Vice versa. Wilwa, the Ranger, said she cannot protect the Seer toNight. It would make sense for the WWs to attack the Seer, then, and get rid of him. It would mean, though, that Hakon will be exposed as a lying Ranger (though they could still try to outtalk it on the next Day, that he actually could not have protected the Seer, but he was bluffing to try to save him for one, resp. two more Nights). It is also distinctly possible that Wilwa the Ranger would be bluffing and actually protecting the Seer that Night, in that case, it would be a risk of losing the kill, and also helping Wilwa prove her innocence (as people would probably assume it was her who stopped the kill).

Well, if I were to choose the first scenario seems more plausible to me, somehow. But anyway... I guess what I am looking forward to the most now is to see Pitchwife's dream.

I need to think of things, too, and go through posts of people probably, again. I will be around for quite a while now.

EDIT: x-ed with Inzil and Nog

[Loslote]

Personally, I still think Hakon is a wolf, but I'm not nearly as certain who the other wolf is. My top guesses are Nogrod and [B]Brinn[B].

Brinn, first post, said she suspected everyone and was totally paranoid. Everyone rolled their eyes and ignored her. SPAM, first post, said he suspected everyone, too. We all laughed and forgot about it. I don't know if two wolves would do the same first post, but it does seem to have bought her a bit of time. Also, she's not been very active, so no one's focusing on her. I'm uneasy with the way everyone is giving her free pass.

Nogrod, Roa wasn't the first person to go for you. That was Nienna. Why are you blaming Roa? Also, you're asking why the wolves didn't kill Roa or Legate. Why should they? They're both very vocal players, and soon enough they'll say something that'll make us all lynch them. The wolves would have no reason to kill them, whereas Kitanna was trailless. We can't say why the wolves do anything, of course, but we also can't say why they wouldn't.

Edit: xed with Legate, Inzil, and Nogrod.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just one more speculation at this hour...

Now clearly the fact that the wolves didn't try to kill Pitchie - which we should know for certain as Kit died - would point towards Hakon being actually the real ranger and thus cast the suspicion on wilwa.

Now didn't they have any other choices or was it their intention to make wilwa look bad?

That's actually quite interesting, since the only thing Kitanna's death point to (mind you I haven't finished going through Day 2) is Wilwa. Could that have been a factor in choosing Kitanna.

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Indefinitely? Of course not. But the wolves would be foolish to leave a gifted alive longer than they absolutely have to. The longer they leave the ranger alive, the more careful they have to be in their kills, and if they fail and the ranger comes out and says who they protected, well, that's as good as a seer's dream.

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.

I'm certain people already have.

Not exactly. I suspect those people who time their efforts to lynch me when innocent too nicely - or make a too heavy effort on Day1 or 2 with minimal arguments. In both cases I see an evil intent trying to get me lynched and not being honestly trying to lynch a baddie as the first priority.

But if I think you are a baddie, then honestly trying to lynch you is honestly trying to lynch a baddie, isn't it? See, while you may be sure of your role, I have no means of that except your death or a seers dream. I hardly made a heavy effort- I posted analysis, not just of you, but of several people that SPM mentioned. Not because it's you, but because a known wolf talked about you in ambiguous terms. Contrary to your perceptions, I just want to find a wolf, not go after you because it's fun. As for my vote- it was your lack of reaction to my "trying hard to lynch you" (which I wasn't) that made me ultimately change my mind from voting for Inzil to voting for you.

I'm not sure which one of has the faulty logic here... or well, a very differing view of things at least.

By killing the real ranger last Night the wolves would have most probably exposed one of them (the false ranger) whom we would have then lynched toDay - leaving one wolf alone against the entire village.

Which I mentioned- it was point B. Please read before responding.

And yes, I was saying the same: if the wolves thought Pitch was protected they had an open invitation to pick anyone they wished. But I would think they would go for those who could be influental threats to them rather than trying to pick someone who's not been too openly in the spotlight thus far.

By your logic, you shouldn't be alive this morning either. And we are easy to lynch. You don't get rid of someone who's easy to lynch. You get them lynched during the day.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...

Again, by your logic, you should be a top candidate for the kill as well. You also wouldn't false reveal as a gifted in the manner as was done yesterday. I think it's pretty clear the wolves aren't playing like you.

Oh you had one more...
Sorry to disappoint you, but I was not being a clever wolf there. Sadly I was just acting stupidly from a moment's passion. The last minute fever...

I didn't think you were. If you were paying attention to my post at all, you would see that I am fairly certain of your innocence. You are letting past games get into your head and not actually thinking clearly. Calm down- I don't want to lynch you.

But then again I'm not too sure I would have something like a major issue to go after you toDay... I mean why would I? I should try to look for a wolf here, not look for how to get a certain person lynched wgatever s/he is.

Because at the end of Day 2, you were sure that I was evil. It's follows that you would continue to think so toDay. And if you are trying to kill wolves, and you think that I'm a wolf, it follows that you would try to kill me.

But as I said, I'll be back a little later (I just decided to look at the situation and maybe post some elementary thoughts of our situation and here a full hourr has already gone...).

And with an eye to everyone, not just you Roa.

I hope you return soon, because I'm fairly sure we are on the same side. And I'd like to know your opinion of people other than myself.

Edit: crossed with Legate and Loslote

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.

Definitely agreed. Like you say, the moment had not arrived yet. We still have some time.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...

Well, I don't really know, Noggoth, but I think it was you who were modding the last game only a couple of weeks ago, and innocent Roa was lynched there quite splendidly with a large contribution of mine and other innocents, and you said yourself how you enjoyed watching the mistake happen, so I think you should have it in fresh enough memory not to speak too lightly of Roa's "lynchability"...

Anyway, as for that, maybe I am a lot too more careful after what happened the last time (if Roa is a Wolf this time, I may pity it), but I certainly am against making any artificial cases, and this far I do not have any reasons to suspect her. She seems okay. And I don't see what is your case against her (looks just artificial, as if you decided "Roa cannot be innocent, let's prove it"). Though there is something fishy on the whole business. Anyway, it's not what I want to concern myself with now. My questionmark still hovers above Inziladun, for example. Hm, I could really re-read some older posts people made.

EDIT: x-ed with Roa

[Pitchwife]

I'm here - and baffled by the fact that the wolves didn't go for any of the gifted last Night. wilwa predicted this might happen, which makes me wonder whether she just guessed the wolves' strategy correctly in her #221 or had inside information on their plans. Anyway, they're playing a risky game here, and I hope we'll be able to turn it against them.
My dreams revealed no wolf last Night, but unlike yesterDay, I'm now able to give you a known innocent. I hesitate to do this, as it will make him a target for the wolves, but looking back at yesterDay's votes, I think some clearing up is in order. Besides, I guess one of the wolves' motives in not attempting to kill me is to tarnish my credibility, and I'd like to spoil that game for them.
Nogrod is a faithful follower of Cthulhu - to be precise, an ordo.
Sorry for signing your death warrant, Nog - but if the wolves decide first to go for the gifted after all, that should give you another Day or two, and if they kill you first, they have to take the risk that I'll expose another of them.
Roa, sorry for not complying with your request. If it's any consolation, you've been on my shortlist for dreaming from the beginning - but up to now, you haven't done a single thing that cried 'wolf' to me, while Nog was under considerable suspicion yesterDay and I had doubts of him myself. To be frank, with his role now known, I don't quite like your vote for him which may have pushed him to voting Nienna to save himself, but I can see you doing this out of genuine suspicion, and on the other hand, I don't think a wolf would ask for being dreamed like you did.

[Loslote]

I don't suspect Inzil for the simple reason that he won't stop suspecting me. Most people saw SPAM's vote and said, "Okay then. Cross Lottie off the list." But Inzil thinks I'm a wolf, so he didn't. I think a wolf would let that one go, so since Inzil didn't, I don't think he is guilty.

Roa I can't say. She has been very helpful, and I don't see anything suspicious, but I also don't see anything that proves she can't be a wolf.

Legate makes good points sometimes, but other times he posts fluffy nothings, as I've said before. That doesn't add up to wolf in my book.

Crayon hasn't been the most vocal, but what he says seems to be well-thought out and helpful. I'm not suspicious of him.

I don't have much on Lari. She could easily be a wolf, but she doesn't jump out to me as one.

I'm waiting on Pitchie's dream. No suspicions there.

Edit: xed with Pitchie

[Inziladun]

Thanks, Pitch. Useful to at least have a known innocent around.
If the wolves are going to play the game of leaving around all the various claimants to confuse us, I think it's time to take sides now, and vote for the Priest claimant we think most suspicious. I know: we don't want to lynch a gifted. But in this case, even if we were that unfortunate we'd be led to a likely wolf. Time is not on our side here. There are still two wolves left, and every Day we let this issue continue to be a thorn in our side plays into the hands of the wolves. I think voting for one of the two could tell us much.
Wilwa has made an appearance already. I wonder what Hakon has to say toDay.

x'd with Loslote, who is right. She's still not off the hook.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kill our ranger, leave our seer wide open to attack on a 50/50? When we have 2 wolves in a village of 14? The situation isn't that dire. We don't need to risk it yet. Day 4 may be different depending on how the lynch goes, but I don't think it's worth the risk at this moment. I personally have no idea about the priests. I'm not going to vote for one and risk leaving our seer unprotected. Not when we have overwhelming numbers on our side.

[Hakon]

Let me start off by saying I am the real ranger. So far the person to really strike me as suspicious is Lostole. I think SPM knew no one would vote for her on day one that is why he did it. It makes her seem innocent and it gets her out of being suspected as a wolf. Lostole backs up Wilwa almost 100 percent in this Hakon is a wolf thing.

++Wilwa

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

[Roa_Aoife]

Hakon, we still have one wolf out in the crowd. We already know that either you or Wilwa is the wolf. Can you help find the one among the 10 people out here we have no idea about? That would be so much more useful.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Kill our ranger, leave our seer wide open to attack on a 50/50? When we have 2 wolves in a village of 14? The situation isn't that dire. We don't need to risk it yet. Day 4 may be different depending on how the lynch goes, but I don't think it's worth the risk at this moment. I personally have no idea about the priests. I'm not going to vote for one and risk leaving our seer unprotected. Not when we have overwhelming numbers on our side.

I know it's a risk, but I really think it would help us. We should be able to either lynch a wolf or be led to one within the next Day, leaving us only one wolf to deal with. I didn't expect this to be greeted with wild support, but I think we should deprive the wolves of this tool to confuse us.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna

Day 1

Post 1- Basic "I'm here"

Post 2- remark about the uselessness of the first posts, says Greenie managed to turn the conversation to something more substantial, legate took a wait and see attitude, remark about the loud/quiet debate, finds Wilwa's suggestion about people making noise unhelpful, is confused by Morsul's choice, like's wilwa's advice about ignore vote counts, thinks Hakon's vote is dodgy, doesn't see a reason for Loslote or Crayon's votes.

Her remarks are very general, and aside from slight suspcion towards Wilwa, doesn't really state anything concrete.

Post 3- Calls shenanigans on Brinn, Thinks that Loslote and Crayon's lack of a reason is suspicious, sees where Nienna's reaction could have been a red flag but doesn't find it suspicious, still worried by Wilwa's suggestion

She continues with suspicion of Wilwa. Why didn't Wilwa comment on this in her analysis?

Post 4- Agrees with legate that Wilwa's vote is suspicious, doesn't find Nienna's reaction suspicious, thinks that Brinn is just playing her style.

She doesn't find Nienna or Brinn suspicious, but still is suspicious of Wilwa

Post 5- response to Roa, "Apologies, I missed the "If she contributes no further"." Questions Nienna about her suspicions and vote

Post 6- Wonders slightly about Nienna based on vote, Vote Wilwa based on earlier suggestion and her vote for Hakon

So at the end of Day 1 she is strong on her suspicion of Wilwa. I still find it odd that Wilwa didn't mention this or comment on it at all.


Day 2

Post 1- Lists people mentioned by SPM (Morsul, Nogrod, Wilwa, Pitchie, Loslote, Craydon, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen), says she believes Pitch and isn't as wary as Loslote, will seriously look over the post of SPM and the people he mentioned in seriousness.

She says what basically others said in the beginning of the day.

Post 2- Review of Inzil: doesn't seem good or bad either way, Review of Lari: slightly more suspicious than Inzil, but not by much.

She didn't vote. Based on her posts, I think she probably would have voted for Lari or Inzil, but we really have no way of knowing. And I think the wolves were counting on that. She seems to have dropped her suspicion of Wilwa altogether on Day 2, but again, we can't know what she would have done had she survived and been around. Did Wilwa ignore this on purpose, or was it an oversight?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

Just pointing out: if you're the real Priest and truly protected me last Night, like you said you would, I most likely will be dead toMorrow and unable to tell my dream - unless the wolves go on risking to be dreamed for the sake of creating confusion. I'm curious how long they're willing to keep this up.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Time is not on our side here. There are still two wolves left, and every Day we let this issue continue to be a thorn in our side plays into the hands of the wolves. I think voting for one of the two could tell us much.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

Stop it both of you. Time is maybe not on our side in general, but the situation really isn't as dire yet. Look at the player list, there is 13 or us or something. Plenty time. Plenty time. Give it a rest at least for a Day or two. Most of all, because if we lynch the Ranger, we definitely lose the Seer. Repeat: if we lynch the Ranger, we definitely lose the Seer. I hope I do not have to repeat it for more times.

By the way, it is useful to know about Nog. Good, Pitch. (The more I urge you, Nog, to try to use clear thinking and not to fall into some "known innocent syndromme" of going blindly after anyone. We need your help as a known innocent, as unclouded as possible.)

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I know it's a risk, but I really think it would help us. We should be able to either lynch a wolf or be led to one within the next Day, leaving us only one wolf to deal with. I didn't expect this to be greeted with wild support, but I think we should deprive the wolves of this tool to confuse us.

It only confuses us as long as we keep discussing it. If we focus on catching the wolf in hiding, we won't be confused by the whole thing. Pitch can use her dream however she wants, including finding out the truth behind Hakon and Wilwa, or finding the other hidden wolf. But only if she's alive. Which she won't be if we bumble and kill the ranger. What if, God forbid, the last wolf is a submarine like last game? We may not figure it out until it's too late.

Edit: crossed with Legate

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchie

Sorry for signing your death warrant, Nog - but if the wolves decide first to go for the gifted after all, that should give you another Day or two, and if they kill you first, they have to take the risk that I'll expose another of them.

No problem there Pitchie. It was a good idea to reveal your knowledge. As it happens I have some time in my hands toDay and as a known innocent (so far as you will be trusted) I can try to be as open as possible as I don't have to be afraid of my own neck toDay. And that is good.

Also it will be interesting to see what the wolves will decide the next Night...


Seeing the last posts, well you Roa took the words out of my desktop... a dream on either wilwa or Hakon is basically a dream wasted. If we just remember to take care of that duo in time that is.

But that time is not toDay as the next Night will still be crucial: the real ranger may have a chance to protect the seer. So let's not risk lynching the ranger to give the wolves free rein on the coming Night.

Sorry wilwa / Hakon if this sounds rude... but in the end we're fairly certain one of you is a wolf and from the village standpoint we need to lynch the wolf. So the real ranger will face the danger of being lynched but we shouldn't waste the dream on you as it is 50-50. With everyone else the odds are a lot weaker.

So Inzil also, let's not be hasty.


Okay. I'll go back into the thread to make some basic-research.

If there is any issue you people would like to hear a good-willed thoughts on let me know. But for the first thing I'm going to scroll through the thread, check the votings (times and reasons) + look a bit on Inzil (eyeing what Hakon and wilwa have said on him & spm as well).

It may take some time knowing my slow speed in doing this kinds of things, but I will refresh this page as well every now and then to see what goes on.


EDIT: X'd with a host of posts...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Roa

Pitch can use her dream however she wants

For your information, I'm the proud owner of a Y chromosome. Don't worry, it happens all the time...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

For your information, I'm the proud owner of a Y chromosome. Don't worry, it happens all the time...

What's really embarrassing is that I think I did that last game too.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The more I urge you, Nog, to try to use clear thinking and not to fall into some "known innocent syndromme" of going blindly after anyone. We need your help as a known innocent, as unclouded as possible.

Heh...

Okay. I try to stay focused, but you know, when one knows his days are counted one wishes to voice every little thing he finds so as to enable others to pick on them if the main suspicions turned out wrong after one is gone himself...

But I will try to prioritise things toDay. I'll try...


Well Pitchie, picking up a nick with the word "wife" in it might be a minor factor for those confusions to arise...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm, I have just read through Inzil's posts and actually now I would reconsider him and think of him better than I initially did. Except for maybe the fact that he quoted SpM and Nogrod together on first Day to sort of point out how flawed they are => throwing an innocent and a Wolf into the same bag for eventual chances to frame in the future? But that, I think, seems highly overstretched. Also, I think it is going to be possible to get a better reading of him once we know who Hakon is. So, maybe I can let him sort of drop from the emergency positions on my suspicion ladder for now... well, let's see.

Relatedly. I said I have a good feeling about Brinn-well, I do, the only thing is that she is really a good Wolf when she is one, so I really cannot effectively tell. And really. I have the same problem with Nerwen. That's basically the same case. While I have been worried about Nerwen slightly... maybe she could be the next one I can look on.

[Roa_Aoife]

Votes for Nienna:

Wilwa- put Nienna in the running
Lari- tied Nienna with Nog
Inzil- Put Nienna into the lead
Nogrod- Put Nienna over the top


Nogrod is a known innocent. So I won't be doing (another) look at him.

Wilwa is tied up in a lovely knot- no point in wasting my time.

Both Lari and Inzil I analyzed yesterday. Inzil was more suspicious than Lari to me. I find subtle hinting more suspicious than blatant cases, and Inzil was doing that towards Nogrod. Of course, we had two innocents up for the lynch yesterDay, so a wolf could have gone with either one.

Votes for Nogrod

Nienna- put Nog in the running
Loslote- put Nog in the lead
Roa- tied Nog up with Nienna

Nienna is a known innocent.

I can't analyze myself.

Loslote is probably innocent. I will put him on my list of analysis anyways.

Other votes

Hakon- Wilwa
Morsul- Hakon
Craydon- Morsul
Nerwen- Morsul
Brinn- Inzil
Legate- Inzil

Hakon- see Wilwa

Morsul- see Hakon

Craydon had to vote early and had no good candidates. His vote looks sound. There really isn't much to analyze. I think he bears watching.

Nerwen was around, and could have come up with something better. If she didn't like either Nogrod or Nienna as a suspect, then she could have come up with a third party. Her vote looks careful to me. She's next on my analysis list, especially as I never got around to her yesterDay.

Brinn's vote is interesting. I understand putting up someone else she was uncomfortable with instead of voting for someone she didn't find suspicious. The problem is that other than briefly on Day 1, she hasn't really registered with me. I am afraid of submarines, and she is striking me as a submarine.

Legate's vote has a reason behind it, and I also considered voting for Inzil. Still, I haven't paid terribly close attention to him lately.


No vote

Pitch
Kitanna


Pitch is our seer.
Kitanna is a known innocent

So, from the votes, I will analyze:
Loslote
Nerwen
Brinn
Legate

Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work.

Edit: crossed with Legate

[Loslote]

Brinn worries me. I'm guessing she's the second wolf, now that Nogrod is clear. I would go for Hakon as the other wolf, but he's tangled in that nasty Ranger business, so...

And if we're correcting genders, I'm female.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Brinn worries me. I'm guessing she's the second wolf, now that Nogrod is clear. I would go for Hakon as the other wolf, but he's tangled in that nasty Ranger business, so...

And if we're correcting genders, I'm female.

*headdesks* I'll get it right.

Why Brinn?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm, so actually, I have read also through Nerwen's posts, and the outcome is - for now - rather positive still, she seems reasonable, trying to think and all that. But I am really, really, really looking forward for her to post toDay. I guess it will make me form my picture on her a lot closer, among other things, especially I am looking forward to seeing her interpretation of the Night events.

Well, otherwise I am afraid that I am falling into the "Legate who starts analysing never catches anyone" state, which I have been observing on myself many times. I think I could try to read Brinn and Lari for comparison, but Lari makes so long posts. And Brinn is a submarine, but it really seems she is busy in RL, so what can one do. Ugh, and I completely forgot that Craydon exists.

But, hm, thinking of it, if I am not mistaken, then there is only one Wolf, then, outside the Hakon-Wilwa-(Morsul) group. That means it could be basically anyone (Like, some total submarine. That's how I came to think of it now.)

EDIT: x-ed since Roa's long post

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Brinn, first post, said she suspected everyone and was totally paranoid. Everyone rolled their eyes and ignored her. SPAM, first post, said he suspected everyone, too. We all laughed and forgot about it. I don't know if two wolves would do the same first post, but it does seem to have bought her a bit of time. Also, she's not been very active, so no one's focusing on her. I'm uneasy with the way everyone is giving her free pass.

Didn't want to write it out again.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Didn't want to write it out again.

I see. A lot of people make their first post of the game into banter, whether wolf or innocent. There are much better reasons to suspect someone.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm, as for having read Lari, I guess it would be good to see her around and posting more to get a better picture about her. This far, she could be 50-50 either for me. Though that suspicion of SpM on Day 1 would be somewhat too complicated to think of if it was orchestrated, but then, I really don't know that much about Lari to conclude how complicated schemes she could make (if it wasn't given as an idea to her by SpM himself anyway). Well, though I really don't know. Don't see her in particular as good as to vote for, but certainly watching her for now. Let's see what comes up.

Hm, I have the feeling that I had some other thought on my mind, but possibly forgot it.

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I see. A lot of people make their first post of the game into banter, whether wolf or innocent. There are much better reasons to suspect someone.

Admittedly, yes. That was just my starting point...and basically the reason why no one looked very closely at her later. She pretty much only posted 'first posts' on Day 1 (or at least that I found) with nothing of substance. When other players posted analyses of everyone, most of what was said about Brinn was, "hasn't posted much. Let's look at her later, when she's posted more." The only real 'substantial' post of hers that I found was complaining about the reveals and telling the 'gifteds' that they made her head hurt.

Edit: xed with Legate

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

Crayon's lack of activity- I can vouch that he is in the military and preparing for deployment, making him very busy. I cannot vouch for his in-game role, but I do know that that's why he hasn't been very active.

He could, of course, be using that to his advantage.

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting first with quotes of reasons given. There are no explanations for known innocent votes (to save time).


Morsul -> Nienna
(“firstly she acts far too innocent to be also notice Mccab put quotes around innocent Hmm a slip on our mods part?”)
Hakon -> Inzil
(“He has a track record as being a wolf and he has gotten past my radar every time. I am not taking the risk of letting him live.”)
Loslote -> Pitchie
(“same as Inzil, only his posts worry me more. He seemed to be jokingly trying to get on everyone's good side...but it might just be Day 1 behavior.” What she said of Inzil: “I'm not entirely comfortable with him, but nothing that I can really base a suspicion on.”)
Crayon -> Inzil 2
(no reason whatsoever given for the vote)
wilwa -> Hakon
(“So...Hakon has played many games, and therefore should have some better logic by now I would think. His vote and comments are weird and I don't like them”)
Spm -> Loslote
(“Overall, Loslote’s activity comes across to me as typically Wolfish. Posting a fair bit to show she’s engaged, trying to look helpful, but actually avoiding saying very much of anything at all.”)
- 1.42 Nienna -> Pitchie 2
- 1.28 Nogrod -> Nienna 2
- 1.13 Kit -> wilwa
- 1.12 Roa -> Spm
(“Because he has been throwing around suspicion as if it had the full weight of sound reasoning behind it when it didn't. And also because in all of his actual suspicions (not counting the banter) someone else expressed if not suspicion then unease or wariness in that direction first, which he then played up into a case with no merit.”)
- 1.05 Pitchie -> Spm
- 0.48 Inzil -> Spm 2
(“If this turns out to be a bust, we'll have an obvious target toMorrow.”)
- 0.45 Legate -> Spm 3
(“I don't think there is anything to wonder about, it would really make no sense to make a claim here if it was untrue...”)
- 0.43 Nerwen -> Spm 4
(“Well, then, it's now easy)
- 0.34 Greenie -> Spm 5
- 0.32 Lari -> Spm 6
(“If he is a wolf, that will validate Pitch.”)
- 0.18 Brinn -> Spm 7
(“Okay, I believe you since I see absolutely no reason a baddie would false reveal at this point, but I still think it is rather premature to be revealing even if you have caught a wolf. For one thing, seers have been known to catch two wolves in the past, but revealing now severely limits that opportunity. Though I'm glad at least you waited until the end of the Day so that we'll still have plenty of posts to analyse toMorrow from before we knew Spm's role (and thus be more likely to find connections).”)


A few other remarks on Day1 (looking basically at Inzil - but also Spm, Hakon and wilwa).

EDIT: Blah... I pushed the send button when I was trying to push the preview button... Okay, the rest in a minute...

[Roa_Aoife]

Loslote- okay, that's better, and I can see your point. (Obviously, as I said it a short bit ago.)

Edit: crossed with Nogrod

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Crayon's lack of activity- I can vouch that he is in the military and preparing for deployment, making him very busy. I cannot vouch for his in-game role, but I do know that that's why he hasn't been very active.

He could, of course, be using that to his advantage.

Okay, well yes, that's why I said I hope to see more from him in the future. I am normally not that worried of people who slip outside the attention (we have other people for that ), but this is just the fact that we have most likely only one Wolf outside the spotlights (eventually, we will lynch the other, in one way or the other), so it's that basically apart from the known innocent Nogrod, oneself, the Seer, the two Rangers, and Morsul(likely Agent), you have some seven people to choose from, and six of them are innocent. Uh, really? So little? Well yes, could be... so wait... Inzil, Roa, Brinn, Nerwen, Lari, Crayon... is that all? So one Wolf is (most likely) in there? Hm, nice.

EDIT: Ha! Whom did I miss? Now that would be the most convinient way of spotting a Wolf I have ever seen! (Read above what I said )
EDITEDIT: Oh, okay. I missed Loslote. Hm, well, I really think her innocent.

[Nogrod]

First of all must be said that with wilwa and Hakon we have just soo different players in front of us. The one being very much streetwise, making good general points and being active; the other being short and straightforward bordering on letting an impression he's not totally at home with this...

Originally Posted by Wilwa #29

No way am I gonna make it obvious that I'm a wolf just to make you're life easier.....oops.

I don't like these jokes. They always smell at least like a small rat.


Then there is this nice pick: a wolf addressing his fellow…

Originally Posted by Spm #32

And there was me thinking that you would vote for whoever looks least suspicious to you ...

Actually, I think wilwa has it about right. Barring any major slip-ups from the Wolves, Day 1 votes are pretty much random, whatever reasons people might come up with. Except the Wolves' votes, of course. And that is one of the main reasons why what happens on Day 1 can be so useful on Day 2.

And I just don't know what to say of this...

Originally Posted by Hakon #51

Also on a side note, I think SPM is a wolf. There is no way he is an ordinary innocent. I mean he is back now after being gone for years, it makes perfect sense to give him some kind of non ordinary innocent role so he can show off his apparently awesome skills at werewolf.

But as Legate already noted, I also started feeling a bit better of Inzil after reading him. But check the following posts yourselves...

First there is this quite cool reaction to an early vote by Hakon

Originally Posted by Inzil #56

I'd prefer to earn a lynching with my actions in this circumstance, but there you go.

Although if they were mates this would be understandable reaction to a fellow-wolf's vote...

Originally Posted by Inzil #96

Hakon's vote, as so many have noted, was illogical, but it is somewhat in character for him to vote based on hunches and such. I don't think I'll go for him toDay.

That one was actually a crosspost with Pitchie's revealment...

But would a wolf say this after a revealment he knows is true and seeing the votes rolling in for his mate?

Originally Posted by Inzil #108

I guess it's possible Pitch could be the Agent, but trusting him for now seems to be the logical thing to do. At least we'll have somthing concrete to go on toMorrow, one way or the other.

Wouldn't it be easier to just go with the flow as basically everyone did?


How about wilwa who before Pitchie’s revelation said this as an answer to Hakon suspecting Spm for meta-game reasons (quoted above).

Originally Posted by wilwa #73

And keep in mind, if you insist to use that sort of logic for SPM, that wolf is not the only non-ordinary innocent role. And most roles are chosen randomly any who, so it's not that unlikely that he's innocent.

Okay. I'll check Day2 before making any deductions myself...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work.

I'll try to do that later in the Day (tomorrow RL). But your vote for Spm before Pitchie's revealment makes you look quite good for the time being anyway (I actually didn't notice that fact yesterDay as I didn't have time to go through all the posts from the end of Day1 and thought it not such a problem as there was that revealment bandwagon).

But I'll try it later. Now back to Day2...

[Roa_Aoife]

Loslote

Day 1

Post 1- "I'm here"

Post 2- DL isn't very good for her

Post 3- Tells Morsul that the narration doesn't hold any clues

Post 4- Reminds Morsul to be invisible

Post 5- Response to Craydon's idea

Post 6- Response to Inzil about Craydon's idea

First six posts and nothing of consequence. Not necessarily evil. It is only her second game.

Post 7- List!
Suspicious: SPM and Pitch
Everyone else: No read?

It's hard to tell what she's getting at. She says things like, "posted-nice sounding nothings," but didn't elaborate. She either finds everyone slightly suspicous in someway (unless they haven't been on) or no one suspicious at all except SPM and Pitch

Post 8- Votes Pitch

An early vote, which is always at a disadvantage. She did give a reason, even if it was poor, but a lot of people were doing that at the time. Day 1 had nothing suspicous except for the 7th post, and that was understandable, given the Day and the lack of evidence.


Day 2

Post 1- Statement on reveals: Agent- Morsul, Priest- Wilwa, Pitch- Dreamer
gives reasons for each

Sound ideas, but mostly what had already been said, reasoning and all.

Post 2- Corrects the odds of finding a wolf. Agrees that we should leave the "gifteds" alone for now, says we'll only know for sure if Pitch dies tonight

She confuses the roles a bit, but since they have different names it;s not surprising. I can understand her point.

Post 3- Apologizes for mixing up the roles.

Post 4- decides to look at Legate's posts "at random", decides Legate is an ordo.

I found this post confusing, because her response to alot of Legate's posts make it sound like she thinks Legate is suspicious, but at the end she just drops it. It seems very non-sequitor.

Post 5- Votes Nogrod because of post #238, doesn't feel very secure about his vote.

The vote for Nogrod came out of nowhere, but it seems she felt rushed and confused, which is understandable given the events of the Day. Aside from from looks like non-sequitor reasoning, there really isn't anything suspicious.


Day 3

Post 1- Thinks Hakon is a wolf. Suspects Brinn- first post was very similar to SPM, and has generally been ignored- and Nogrod- for his suspicion on Roa?

I don't follow her reasoning on Nogrod, but I can see how Brinn would make her uneasy.

Post 2- Doesn't suspect Inzil, Roa- can't say, Legate- fluffy but not furry, Crayon- unsuspicious, Lari- nothing, Waiting for Pitch

At least she's very clear about her opinions.

Post 4- still worried by Brinn, thinks she is the other wolf

Post 5- reclarifies for Roa the suspicions about Brinn

Post 6- further clarification, per Roa's request

Honestly, I see nothing suspicious about Loslote. Her reasons remain structurally sound, even if they seem non-sequitor to me. But then, not everyone uses the same reasoning I do.

[Roa_Aoife]

I am just posting this to help myself and others focus a bit. It's less overwhelming that way. If we ignore Hakon and Wilwa, and we each take our own role into account, that leaves 7 people for each of us to look at in order to find the last wolf.

Knowns:
Pitchwife- seer
Nogrod- Innocent
Morsul- Agent

50/50:
Hakon- wolf/priest
wilwa- wolf/priest

One of these is the last wolf:
Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Craydon1
Nerwen
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

Legate, you forgot Loslote in your list, unless you're convinced of his innocence.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Legate, you forgot Loslote in your list, unless you're convinced of his innocence.

Yep, as you see, I have already corrected that.

EDIT: Although thinking of it, it's not THAT definite. Not so definite that I'd completely leave her out... hmm... maybe I could go re-read her posts too.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

She pretty much only posted 'first posts' on Day 1 (or at least that I found) with nothing of substance.

I've just been looking through Brinn's posts, and I find this rather exaggerated. OK, she didn't post much on Day 1, but in every post but her first she gave some opinions on other players and arguments for them (re: Hakon's suspicion of SpM, Nienna's overreaction to Morsul's vote, not lynching Hakon early, timing of my reveal and its consequences for voting analysis). Day 2 she posted more, she didn't only 'complain' about the reveals but discussed the situation, was wary of Zil (whom she voted in the end), even made a list giving her impressions of assorted players (not very conclusive, I admit). Not as much contribution as our louder players, but not what I'd call a submarine (unlike Cray, but see what Roa said of him).

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll try to do that later in the Day (tomorrow RL). But your vote for Spm before Pitchie's revealment makes you look quite good for the time being anyway (I actually didn't notice that fact yesterDay as I didn't have time to go through all the posts from the end of Day1 and thought it not such a problem as there was that revealment bandwagon).

But I'll try it later. Now back to Day2...

I actually meant both an analysis of me and checking my analysis of other people. Since I know you won't be trying to disprove my points for nefarious reasons, you can check my work and tell me if I'm being overly paranoid or (less likely) overly nice.

Edit: crossed. Sorry Legate, I didn't see your Edit

[Roa_Aoife]

It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf. SPM was also keen to focus on the quiet ones, and we know his reasons to be nefarious. But was he diverting attention away from more than just himself?