WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Nerwen]

I were considerin' switchin' me vote to Shark Tooth Shasty, for I be not likin' the sound o' he toDay. But if ye be all set to vote fer som-un as is goin' to jump ship anyhow, 'tis no p'int me switchin'.

[Macalaure]

Too tired to go into this in much detail, but

Originally Posted by Boro

We're technically not wasting one though, we are just delaying the oppurtunity for a day.

Not necessarily. We are saving one kill, that means we gain one phase, not one day.

[Nerwen]

Look, ye dogs, if ye be goin' to waste the vote entire, we may as well follow Shasty's advice o' lynchin' th' powder-monkey!

[Brinniel]

Deadline. Mirandir has been lynched. Looks mod-fire won't be necessary after all.

I don't think I'll be writing the narration tonight as I worked today a nine hour shift on my feet which means I am tired and hurting. The narration probably won't be written until shortly before the Night's deadline since I intern during the day, but it shouldn't be too much of a problem since no new info will be given. My apologies as I hate not writing a narration right away, but considering I'm having trouble keeping my eyes open, it probably wouldn't be too decent anyway.

[Brinniel]

Th' crew was slightly disheartened by th' death 'o their claimed spy. It didn't help that they couldn't completely take her word fer it; while some did, others were more cautious. Thar would be no way to be knowin' th' staggerin' drunk's true alignment so long as her ghost wandered th' ship.

Th' second day was just as intense as th' first, if not more, as th' crewmembers began to turn on each other, one by one. Mira Blythe couldn't take th' insanity. Halfway through th' day, she fell silent 'n as she stared out into th' sea, she wondered if she would be better off in Davy Jones' treasure chest. But she did not jump, as this day th' sea looked cold 'n uninvitin' while th' deck remained warm 'n gleamin'.

Meanwhile, th' other crewmembers were not grog-filled wit' Dancin' Mira's self-removal from th' conflict at hand.
"'Tis not fair," complained Boromir th' Malformed. "She's not even tryin' to help figure out who the culprits be. We'll never get anythin' done if not all hands participate."
"Aye," Puffy Shirt Rikae agreed. "We might as well murder her. 'tis not like she wants to stick around anyway."
'An so it was decided that Mira Blythe would be th' next to be off.

"But how we dispose 'o her?" wondered Cowerin' Gwath.
Th' crew scratched their heads as they attempted to come up wit' a clever execution.
"Ooh ooh, I be knowin'!" cried out Eomer Bonny. "If Dancin' Mira loves to dance so much, why not gift her some proper dancin' shoes?" He held up a pair 'o iron shoes. "Poop Deck Kath 'n me can even provide th' music."

Dancin' Mira's dancin' shoes were fitted 'n prepared as they sat under some steamin' coals. When th' iron began to glow orange, they were ready to be placed on th' striker's feet. Th' musicians began to play; Poop Deck Kath piped a jolly tune while Whinin' Eomer screeched on his violin what th' crew could only assume were notes. Once th' shoes were on her feet, Dancin' Mira immediately hopped up 'n started to dance a jig. Th' crew clapped 'n cheered as she hopped up 'n down shriekin' from th' pain, her feet beginnin' to sizzle. Th' others enjoyed it so much, they didn't notice that Mira Blythe had shifted her jig towards th' edge 'o th' deck. "Ow, ow, ow," Dancin' Mira gritted through her teeth, but she continued to put on a fake smile purely fer entertainment reasons. Her feet nearly seared to th' bone, suddenly th' cold sea did not look so uninvitin'. As she neared th' ship's railin', she grabbed hold 'n threw herself over. Dancin' Mira disappeared wit' a splash followed by a hiss.

"Well, I guess that takes care 'o it," Mac Sparrow shrugged.
"Not quite," answered a voice.
Th' crew turned around to find a extra wet seaweed-covered Mira Blythe standin' behind them.
"Shiver me timbers," gasped Shark Tooth Shasta.
"Ye were just- how did ye get back up here?" gaped Ham-Hands Izzy.
Dancin' Mira shrugged. "I be in Davy Jones' treasure chest, remember? Cursed to walk th' ship among all th' other ghosts hearty thanks to ye lot."
It was yet another reminder to th' crew that death would not necessarily solve all their problems.


The Living:

-Legless Sally Dawkins ~ Carpenter
-Puffy Shirt Rikae ~ Cabin Boy
-Pirate Lommy the Infected ~ Quartermaster
-Gangrenous Inziladun Jones ~ Pilot
-Pirate Boromir the Malformed ~ Gunner
-Stutterin’ Wilwa Scab ~ Cook
-Shark Tooth Shasta ~ First mate
-High-Pitched Annu ~ Surgeon
-Whinin’ Eomer Bonny ~ Musician (Pur-loined Violin)
-Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow ~ Cooper
-Almost-Blind Nerwen ~ Navigator/Sea Artist
-Poop Deck Kath ~ Musician (Pipe)
-Cowerin' Gwath Slasher ~ Powder Monkey
-Pirate Nogrod the Fashionably Late ~ Gunner
-Ham-Hands Izzy ~ Striker
-Short Ruth Mithril ~ Cook
-Stinkin' Eön Bloodbeard ~ Powder Monkey


The Ghosted:

-Black Death Brinn ~ Captain ~ shish kabobed (mod)
-Slippery McCabbie Dagger ~ Boatswain ~ danced the hempen jig
-Lil' Green the Staggering Drunk ~ Powder Monkey ~ drank up all the rum
-Dancin' Mira Blythe ~ Striker ~ danced her way off the deck


Night 3 has begun. Aggressors, protectors, spies, avengers, whatever....do what you need to do.

[Brinniel]

That nightfall when Eomer Bonny returned to his bunk, he noticed his violin had gone missin'. Frantically he searched all around him, but it was nowhere to be found.
"Lookin' fer somethin'?" said a voice from behind.
Eomer Bonny turned around to find a hidden form holdin' his violin.
"Avast, thar, ye be pur-loinin' me violin," he accused.
"Me pur-loinin'?" replied th' mysterious form. "Maybe. But I believe it was ye who pur-loined it first."
"So what if I did? I be a scurvy pirate. What else do ye expect?"
Th' stranger shrugged. "Nothin' different, really, I suppose. But that don't change th' fact that I be goin' to murder ye."

Th' next mornin', th' crew arose to discover th' body 'o Eomer Bonny lyin' next to his bunk. An E-string was wrapped tightly around his neck 'n a bow protruded from his chest. Next to him lay his violin, smashed into pieces.
"Now how th' kraken did we sleep through that?" Sally Dawkins wondered aloud.
Eomer Bonny stirred, then open his eyes only to spy wit' his eye th' remains 'o his precious instrument.
"Oh begad," he moaned. "They just had to be off 'bout ruinin' me pur-loined violin too, didn't they?"
"Huzzah fer that," voiced Short Ruth Mith. Th' other hands couldn't agree more.


The Living:

-Legless Sally Dawkins ~ Carpenter
-Puffy Shirt Rikae ~ Cabin Boy
-Pirate Lommy the Infected ~ Quartermaster
-Gangrenous Inziladun Jones ~ Pilot
-Pirate Boromir the Malformed ~ Gunner
-Stutterin’ Wilwa Scab ~ Cook
-Shark Tooth Shasta ~ First mate
-High-Pitched Annu ~ Surgeon
-Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow ~ Cooper
-Almost-Blind Nerwen ~ Navigator/Sea Artist
-Poop Deck Kath ~ Musician (Pipe)
-Cowerin' Gwath Slasher ~ Powder Monkey
-Pirate Nogrod the Fashionably Late ~ Gunner
-Ham-Hands Izzy ~ Striker
-Short Ruth Mithril ~ Cook
-Stinkin' Eön Bloodbeard ~ Powder Monkey


The Ghosted:

-Black Death Brinn ~ Captain ~ shish kabobed (mod)
-Slippery McCabbie Dagger ~ Boatswain ~ danced the hempen jig
-Lil' Green the Staggering Drunk ~ Powder Monkey ~ drank up all the rum
-Dancin' Mira Blythe ~ Striker ~ danced her way off the deck
-Whinin’ Eomer Bonny ~ Musician (Pur-loined Violin) ~ his pur-loined violin pur-loined him (or rather, his life)


Day 3 has begun. Now be off on 'n yak ye wee hearts out.

[Isabellkya]

Eomer huh?

Did they think he had a special role or something?
Or just looking to confuse us all around.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'll be pur-loinin' a new vio-lin fer ye come next landfall, Ghostomer. 'M prob'ly the on'y scurvy dog what aperciated yer musical ability.

[satansaloser2005]

++Shasta


See, me mateys, it be a friend's birthday today (well, yesterday now) and I be going out with her tomorrow (well, today now). I not be risking th' wrath of th' capn' by not voting again, so I place me vote for me currently favorite suspect. I be willing to change it if ye can give me a new hammer and a good reason, but for now I best be heading to bed. Sleep ho!

[Nogrod]

Eomer?

Hmm, that's an interesting choice... although it fits at least one reasonable pattern. Like I've said already, the mutineers would be likely to kill by Nights people who could be sensible voters (independent-minded) but would not post much thus leaving the more talkative people to be lynched as it would fit their intentions leaving those people in the insecurity "trustwise" that follows from the lynches.

So they took Boro's explanation for Eomer's behaviour at face value and thought he was a bored ordo and would thus not help us after being dead with his "most likely a goodie"-status?

Okay. Here's my challenge to you Eomer: prove them wrong and become an active one!

I'll go and distill the potato-mash I made yesterday. Vodka on offer in just a short while!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ee, well, howdy all. It ain't so different being dead, so it seems.

Ok, first things first: I ain't barely had a moment to spare in the last few days, and nor will I in the next couple! Mayhaps I'll be freeer after that. That be why I post so little. But I ain't dropping out: long as you post once a day and vote then you've just as much a right to be here.

As for Mirandir, I honestly can't remember why I voted thatway first day; but certainly on the second day Mira's post investigating Greenie's slaying struck me as highly suspicious. Not useful but trying to give the impression of being useful. That's what I thought. Plus nothing else really struck me.

Not sure why I put it in rhyme form but it seemed a good idea at the time.

[Nogrod]

Lemme be straight with you soon again drunken bastards about the issues from yesterDay. As I’m going to pass out soon I’d like to share my thoughs on the issue.

Everytime we lynch someone we get to choose between the innocents and those vermins called mutineers. Everytime the mutineers kill someone they only kill innocents (possibly co-opsies). Now you have chosen not to try taking as many mutineers down as possible thus adding to the ratio of how many of the deaths so far are dictated only by the mutineers eg. choices that involved only innocents.

Now I see some of you arguing we win a Day for later use. Might be, might be… But that Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow is right and we only gain a phase. What follows is that gaining a phase will lead us only into a 50-50 chance of gaining a Day for voting. And whether we will have it or not will depend on how many mutineers we manage to lynch and when & whether the avenger or protector get into business. So it’s impossible to say right now.

Now it looks more likely that Mira is/was an ordinary innocent. Were she something else she probably would have not quitted on the first problem but tried to hang on (she would have had two days IRL to fix the problem – or take part in a net-café, library or by a friend or anything if not getting her computer fixed). That being quite believable, the choice is downright horrible. So you preferred to lynch someone who is more probably an innocent who would have died anyway and decided not to try lynching a mutineer in the first place! And for what? For a chance that it may affect the number of Days we can vote, or then it might not.

What would you do with a chance for extra lynching if you already have thrown away a lynching?

Okay, someone might contest what I’m saying by stating that deciding not to lynch on Day2 and exchanging that for a later lynch would be preferable as we can possibly make better educated decisions later (in this game, huh, sounds like wishful thinking to me at least at the moment). But because it’s not sure we get that “extra-lynch” in the first place I still say it was a waste of our only weapon yesterday.

The question then remains whether those who advocated Mira’s lynching were just not thinking it through or whether some of them were also malicious… Were any of them baddies in danger there at the end of the Day yesterDay? That might explain some of the enthusiasm…

Looking at the voting from yesterDay the only one looking like a possible candidate besides Eomer (who clearly is not a mutineer) would have been Annu.

Okay, one positive thing about your decision. As the lynched ones are those we will not have any clue of, it’s good Mira, who probably isn’t going to post much or at all, is the chosen one as someone must be lynched anyway and thus becomes one we have no clue of.

[Isabellkya]

So the scurvy Sally is merely looking to hammer a candidate eh?
Not exactly a thing an innocent would do.

I think at appearances, Eomer wasn't looking like a sensible voter.
At least what I recollect from those whom voted for him.
I would have to look back and check. But Nog, I don't think you can have it both ways. Either Eomer was killed because he was one whom fit the bill of being a sensible voter, or he wasn't - courtesy of your vote for him. Which I think had something to do with how he had voted. Savvy?


X'd with Nog himself.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

But Nog, I don't think you can have it both ways. Either Eomer was killed because he was one whom fit the bill of being a sensible voter, or he wasn't - courtesy of your vote for him. Which I think had something to do with how he had voted. Savvy?

Bingo!

Well he can be a very sensible voter and would surely have been one as the game went on. I think everyone who has played with him knows that.

His two votes looked fishy to me (especially as he voted for the same person) and that's why I suspected him. Now as I know he was not a mutineer, things look different (and to be honest my reasons for suspecting Mira yesterDay before hearing that she would have to quit were basically the same Eomer told us toDay - and I hold them to be quite sensible suspicions - although they turned out to be wrong).

On a second subject altogether. As you all know the main target of the baddies is the seer / spy: the sooner they got her/him the better for them. Now Eomer really wouldn't be the first choice if hunting for a seer: he's act was too weird - as it almost got him lynched. So can we then deduce from that that they believe they have the spy bagged already?

If so - then whether Greenie tells the truth of being the spy or is a co-opsie trying to fool us - it would make Nerwen look more trustworthy. For surely she must be "non-mutineer" if the mutineers think Greenie could be the spy? Otherwise they'd see the discrepancy (for Nerwen would be a mutineer herself for them to be able to see Greenie lied). But in that case they would be going for the spy with all they have! And it looks like they aren't...

Well, it's not anything conclusive like nothing will be in this game. But we need to gather circumstantial evidence - or plausible hypotheses - and when we one Day have a load of them concerning one person we might start trusting that one a bit more.

[Nogrod]

Okay too much vodka in a too short a time... I think I'm going to pass out for a Day *

Sad I hadn't more time to take any detailed look on some of you guys. But I'll do it when I wake up, dead or alive. That's a promise.

My vote then:

++ Annu

For my suspicions from yesterDay (well already from Day1 to be exact) added with the "let's lynch Mira"-campaign which I still find a bit fishy. Annu being one of the mutineers would explain some of the enthusiasm there.

I'm not confident enough to vote for Boro yet: I'd hate to have him as an unknown (eg. lynched) this early in the game. Btw. that would be a kind of ingenious mutineer-tactics - even if daring. A loudmouth mutineer (there being one that is) would get her/himself lynched and then starts being overly helpful while we don't know whether s/he's a baddie or not. But we'd sure feel a bit guilty for lynching her/him because of her/his helpfulness and could be more easily persuaded to consider her/his points not knowing the advices could be our destruction in the worst case...

Hah, I'm finally getting my conspiracy-brain working!

Ahh... please help yourselves with the vodka, it's pretty raw but there's plenty of it.


* See the discussion thread.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay, someone might contest what I’m saying by stating that deciding not to lynch on Day2 and exchanging that for a later lynch would be preferable as we can possibly make better educated decisions later (in this game, huh, sounds like wishful thinking to me at least at the moment). But because it’s not sure we get that “extra-lynch” in the first place I still say it was a waste of our only weapon yesterday.

I thought then, n' I think now: what a waste! As someone (think it were Mac) pointed out, we're always takin' the chance of killin' an innocent when we vote, n' things bein' as they be n' this game, w' no deathly reveals, I be wondrin' how it be easier later t' find the baddies than now. Cud'a had one yest'dy. along w' Mira.
N' like Nogrod said, seems like Mira likely wud'a found a way t' come back if she'd been a mutineer.
Agree t' disagree? Arrr. Maybe. But I be taken a look at them what was so hot on killin' Mira.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inzil

I be wondrin' how it be easier later t' find the baddies than now.

If it isn't, than this is nothing but a game of chance (or even worse than pure chance). We might as well all vote randomly/according to hunches and not bother talking at all.

As for what Nerwen said yesterday - yeah, we might as well have lynched Greenie instead of Mira then - I wish I'd thought of that in time. Generally, though, I'm still against double lynching on a regular basis, at least when someone was killed by the avengers. We already know that person isn't one of them, so we stand to gain relatively little knowledge from such a lynch (Mira most likely wasn't one either, but I thought it best to avoid the high risk of losing tow innocents in one Day).

Nogrod, why don't you suspect me, then? If you think those who lynched Mira are evil, well, I was the one pushing for it. Why not, then?

[Macalaure]

*reads Nogrod's posts and gets a stiff neck from nodding*

I absolutely agree with the probable intentions behind the kill(s), and of course with the explanation why it would have been better to lynch someone else. I also agree that Eomer's death makes Greenie's claim more believable and Nerwen certainly more innocent-looking.

Not sure, though, whether we should really believe that Mira was innocent. Likely, yes, but I wouldn't want to assume anything on it.

What position would a mutineer take in yesterday's debate? He would certainly be for lynching someone else, irrespective of Mira's role, as long as the one on the chopping block isn't a mutineer. We know Eomer isn't, and Annu was the other one with two votes. If Annu is evil, then likely Rikae, Boro, or Gwath are. Not much to conclude, but hey...

*wonders whether agreeing with Nogrod should make him suspicious*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

*reads Nogrod's posts and gets a stiff neck from nodding*

I absolutely agree with the probable intentions behind the kill(s), and of course with the explanation why it would have been better to lynch someone else. I also agree that Eomer's death makes Greenie's claim more believable and Nerwen certainly more innocent-looking.

What position would a mutineer take in yesterday's debate? He would certainly be for lynching someone else, irrespective of Mira's role, as long as the one on the chopping block isn't a mutineer.

I'm a bit confused. You say you agree with Nogrod that it would have been better to lynch someone other than Mira, then you say a mutineer probably would have taken the same position?

[Thinlómien]

Alrightey, I'm back here.

First off my thoughts on the big issues - I think Greenie is telling the truth (sadly), Nerwen is therefore innocent and Mira was innocent. And even if these facts are not true, there's not much danger in assuming this, at least for now, and even if Greenie is lying it is still matemathically probable that Nerwen is innocent.

When I read through Day2 late yesterday after sleeping only four hours in the night and looking after two energetic kids for several hours in the evening, I got a headache but it's getting a bit clearer now. There's precious little evidence in this game, but stuff can still be concluded from people's general manner and the solidity of their arguments.

I'll make a list of my thoughts about people now and I will be writing about Eomer's death soo too, I hope...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm a bit confused. You say you agree with Nogrod that it would have been better to lynch someone other than Mira, then you say a mutineer probably would have taken the same position?

Ah, you're right there. I didn't think of that side of the argument, because I took the same position and I know I'm innocent. Annu's innocence would indeed point to Nogrod (and all else who advocated leaving Mira alone). I wouldn't say it points strongly, though, since there was no real counter-waggon to keep up with Mira. Annu was in sufficient danger to make a fellow mutineer afraid of her death, but it doesn't look like either her death or Eomer's were pushed.

Now that I think of it again, why would the mutineers actually have to fear Annu's death? They all had votes of their own, they could have voted Eomer, have their two deaths, and kept their fellow out of trouble. Doesn't make much sense.

Darn it. Most likely they're all innocent and the mutineers were leaning back and enjoying the show...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

There's precious little evidence in this game, but stuff can still be concluded from people's general manner and the solidity of their arguments.

I more and more get the feeling that that is indeed the only reasonable thing we can do.

[Annunfuiniel]

Well well, me nearly got lynched yesterDay, huh? Couldn't see that comin'... Or then again, maybe I could. 'Twasn't quite wise to tell I wouldn't be 'round 'n 'bout durin' th' DL - thus some obviously figured out I wouldn't be able to defend against all th' accusations.

Tho' I can well see why ye could find me suspicious. Me vote be hasty, to say th' least but I honestly thought thar be somethin' fishy in that Shasta fella... Mostly a hunch but better than no clue at all. Me feelin's haven't changed that much but let me take a much more closer look on thin's and then maybe I'll be able to give you some better reasonin' fer me comin' vote (not sayin' I'll be lookin' only at Shasta's writin's, mind ye).

Oh, 'n Nogrod is votin' fer me already? Nay even givin' me a chance to explain 'n defend meself? Well, if that ain't hasty.... 'n fer the record, that "lets-lynch-Mira campaign" was none of me doin' 'n could easily have ended either way. Fer me Mira looks more innocent than not but guess it doesn't matter much fer now, unless she starts to ghostpost.

P.S. And, to avoid any further confusion: Annu the Surgeon be a he.

EDIT: X-ed since #298

[wilwarin538]

I'll be back more later on, I just had to come on and comment on the Mira lynch. It makes absolutely no sense to me, it said on the admin thread that she would be modfired so why on earth did people vote for her and waste a lynching??? Unless I totally missed something, I'll have to read back threw those last posts. Either way I'm going to be keeping a close eye on those last few people who voted for her.

So anyway, I had to say something about that quickly, I desperately need to get some work done on an assignment and will be back far more in a few hours.

[Boromir88]

Nogrod, Nerwen, and whoever else let me speak slowly so you can get this...

It's partially my fault, because technically we are not 'gaining' or 'losing' anything, we're just postponing, puting on a raincheck.

Now I'm randomly going to choose 7 people to prove a point (and hopefully that be the end).

Nogrod
Nerwen
Mac
Mira
Boro
Rikae
Lommy

For arguments sake let's say there is one wolf, and that is Nerwen...no Ranger, hunter or anything, just wolf-Nerwen.

Lets go first with your plan. We know Mira will be leaving the game, she will die at night. So, we decide to lynch Nogrod (chance 1). The wolves kill Mac at night (plus), losing Mira, which leaves...

Nerwen
Boro
Rikae
Lommy

There is one more chance to lynch Nerwen (chance 2)

Now, here is what we did yesterday...

Nogrod
Nerwen
Mac
Mira
Boro
Rikae
Lommy

We said...well Mira is going to be gone anyway, let's lynch her (we are conceding the oppurtunity of going for someone else, and a chance at a mutineer...but only putting a raincheck).

Nerwen kills Nogrod at night leaving...

Nerwen
Mac
Boro
Rikae
Lommy

We lynch Mac (chance 1). Nerwen kills me at night, leaving..

Nerwen
Rikae
Lommy

There is one more chance to get Nerwen (chance 2)

So, please stop saying we blew or wasted anything, because the fact is we didn't. We decided to just have a rain check. We didn't gain or lose any chances, the only way we gain chances is if the Ranger saves someone. We have the same exact chance, just extending it by a phase (Mac is technically right, it is an extra day phase).

In this style there are many benefits to doing what we did.

1) We don't know the role, eventhough it's unlikely Mira is a baddie (and not wanting to quit so easily), the fact is just because someone's computer is dead doesn't mean she is automatically innocent). So maybe we did get a wolf, or co-conspirater...is someone going to say for sure we didn't?

2) Even if Mira was going to get another day to get internet back, it saves us from being left another day with someone who isn't going to post (albeit no fault to Mira and I'm not blaming her for anything, stuff happens, but the fact is it was highly doubtful she could continue).

3) We, again, don't know the roles. Why take a shot at the dark with someone (say it would have been Annu) on day 2, plus losing Mira, plus what it turns out...losing Eomer. In a normal game, maybe you are right, but in this one, we wouldn't have found out about Annu's role, whether he is lynched yesterday, today, tomorrow, or if never.

It is never good to have multiple deaths in one day or one night, and in this set up it really isn't good, because we won't get any information out of it anyway, as we don't know people's roles!

Well...the mutineers do, but come on stop being so obsitinate, that will be enough of the decision to lynch Mira yesterday. Because there is no argument, you are flat out wrong if you say we wasted a chance.

Edit: bolding names

[Mithalwen]

I am here but I need to read up.

[Thinlómien]

Oh and I forgot to mention about McCab - I think he was innocent. There's not much to conclude from his posts and his lynch was a shot in the dark and those tend to go awry. But we can look at his and Mira's deaths the way that at least they're both people who probably have a higher than average tendency to miss the vote and that's why it's better they're dead not someone else - although by this standard we should lynch Nerwen even though she's almost a known innocent.

Okay, now off to me list:
Sally - too slippery fer me, bears watching
Rikae - back to the aggressive Rikae mode - what does it mean?
Inziladun - too smooth fer me taste, but I have no picture of an innocent Zil to compare his current behaviour to, so it's hard to say anything definite...
Boromir - my special boroscope radar is judging him innocent, but then again, I'm sure me boroscope's gonna fail some day and it may just as well be in this game...
Wilwa - as slippery and watching-worthy as Sally, I just have a slightly better gut-feeling about her
Shasta - I think he's innocent but I have nothing concrete to back this up
Annu - could be anything, I need to see more of her to judge better
Mac - seems innocent but I know better than to trust my judgement of him
Nerwen - by all mathematical odds is most likelily an innocent
Kath - her normal self ie unreadable until Day4 or 5
Gwath - I'd like him to post more, I have little idea of him but I'm not too suspicious...
Nogrod - seems rather innocent except for the rather weird Annu-vote
Izzy - I like what I'm seeing this far
Mith - probably an innocent?
Eönwë - I'm sorry to say this, but I'm not worried about him because I think he will incriminate himself soon enough if he's evil

So my best guess at the mutineer team is Wilwa + Sally + Nogrod/Rikae + Inziladun/Annu/Eönwë. (Mmh why to format it that way is because it is kind of probable that there aren't two gurus or two relative newcomers in the team.)

I just realised that with two co-conspies and four mutineers, more than a third of the living are probably evil. (I think there are no dead mutineers yet, Eomer or McCab may have been a co-conspirator, but I don't know how probable is that...) We have to be really careful then about trusting people and remember that the evil-doers can form quite a mighty consensus...


edit: xed with everyone

[Macalaure]

Boro, let's play the same example with 8.

A) If only Mira dies, then after another night phase, we're down to 6. One day later, 4, and that's the last day. Including the lynch on the last day, the village had 3 lynches, the wolves 2 kills.

B) If Mira and someone else dies, we're down to 5 instead of 6, and one day later 3 instead of 4. This time, the village had 4 lynches and the wolves 2 kills.


In case of your 7, you gain a day phase. In case of my 8, you gain a night phase (when the village is down to 4, the wolves need to theoretically excercise their following night kill before they win).

In the case of 7, you postpone a lynch, in the case of 8, you lose one. (The same holds for all even and odd numbers, of course, and since we don't know what ranger and hunter will do, we don't know in which case we ourselves are.)

[Mithalwen]

Oh good, I am glad the mathmagician turned up before I had to try and explain that .

[Boromir88]

Lommy...you will be able to trust your boroscope this time, but you might want to get your nogscope fixed. Was Greenie a Nogrod kill? Or maybe there were even two family members involved in that one?

So they took Boro's explanation for Eomer's behaviour at face value and thought he was a bored ordo and would thus not help us after being dead with his "most likely a goodie"-status?~Nogrod

Slip-up? By they you are referring to the mutineers, I assume, and obviously you have excluded me from 'them' (that part you got right at least), but you seem pretty sure as to why Eomer was killed...what's stranger Mac is suddenly agreeing with you, after really wanting you lynched on Day 1, and I believe saying you were his 'enemy' on Day 2...?

I'm not confident enough to vote for Boro yet: I'd hate to have him as an unknown (eg. lynched) this early in the game. Btw. that would be a kind of ingenious mutineer-tactics - even if daring. A loudmouth mutineer (there being one that is) would get her/himself lynched and then starts being overly helpful while we don't know whether s/he's a baddie or not. But we'd sure feel a bit guilty for lynching her/him because of her/his helpfulness and could be more easily persuaded to consider her/his points not knowing the advices could be our destruction in the worst case...

This may be the final nail in your coffin, at least for me...I'm pretty convinced and feel confident now you are a mutineer. Is that a strategy you will try when you end up dead? But I may need to clear my head before I pass that type of final judgement.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I can't say much of Eomer's death. Even if the mutineers hadn't believed Greenie's claim and therefore killed Eomer for seeming seerish by blaming an evil Mira it does not give us any clues as Mira is dead.

I'm inclined to agree with Nogrod about reasons why Eomer died, and add this - Eomer was a rather no track kill as the only tracks he has lead to Mira who's dead.

I have a feeling Nog may be a co-consp.


edit: xed with everybody

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Mith

Oh good, I am glad the mathmagician turned up before I had to try and explain that .

At ye serrvice.

[Thinlómien]

Boro, I don't know if Greenie would've been a Nogrod kill. Yes because she's a silent player but I think he may have refrained from killing his daughter on Night2.

[Boromir88]

Mac, umm how do you get 4 lynch chances with 8 people?

In B, your counting is off...

If Mira and someone else dies

That's 1 lynch (Mira isn't a lynch, she is booted)

Between 5 and 3 is lynch 2.
Then the last dayis lynch 3.

If you start with 8, 10, 20, 500 people it doesn't matter. The village (erm ship) will get the same amount of lynch chances, to find the baddies. The only thing that can change that is the Ranger stopping a night kill.

[Macalaure]

Boro, I counted Mira's death as a lynch in both cases (since she's not a wolf kill). However, you can't decide to count her in one case and not in the other. In case A, even though she is technically lynched, you can't count it because she would have died anyway. It was basically an abstain.

Which ever way you count, you still lose a lynch opportunity in the worst, and postpone only in the best case.

[wilwarin538]

Boro what you are saying does make a bit of sense, but I still don't like it. When the wolves choose someone to kill they don't run the risk of killing one of their own, we do. So we should take every possible oppurtunity to try and get a wolf, that's the whole point of us lynching someone. And this whole gaining a day thing is not guaranteed, at all, we have no clue at any time what the ratio is between the good guys and the bad guys so likewise we can't try to figure out how many days we possibly have left, so we shouldn't waste them.

Some of what you say does make sense, and I know we could have just ended up lynching another innocent, but I still don't like that we lost the chance of getting a wolf. Makes me very uneasy.

Anyway, I don't want to talk about that anymore, it's making me dizzy with all the statistics and stuff. I'm going to read back through yesterDay and toDay and come back with a list eventually.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Boro what you are saying does make a bit of sense, but I still don't like it. When the wolves choose someone to kill they don't run the risk of killing one of their own, we do. So we should take every possible oppurtunity to try and get a wolf, that's the whole point of us lynching someone. And this whole gaining a day thing is not guaranteed, at all, we have no clue at any time what the ratio is between the good guys and the bad guys so likewise we can't try to figure out how many days we possibly have left, so we shouldn't waste them.

I'm of the same mind. I understand the point Boro is trying to make and I'll not 'argue' about it anymore, but I've no regrets about not latching onto the Mira train.

[Boromir88]

Oh fishsticks, we messed that up...didn't we? (You can check this thread though, where I admit to not being good at math)

The good news is, now Mac, I know you are not crazy and are just trying to mess with my head (i.e. not the co-conspirator). Although, ye may be a mutineer, considering my own feelings about Nogrod and you going after him early, now for some unknown reason trust him...care to explain?

As well as feeling really good about Wilwa and Inziladun, because of their responses to me.

Lommy and Mith are under my watch too.

[Nerwen]

Shiver me timbers, we be all at sea here wi' ne'er a way o' gettin' our bearings. 'Tis like tryin' to navvy-gate in a fog!

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Boro, I counted Mira's death as a lynch in both cases (since she's not a wolf kill). However, you can't decide to count her in one case and not in the other. In case A, even though she is technically lynched, you can't count it because she would have died anyway. It was basically an abstain.

Which ever way you count, you still lose a lynch opportunity in the worst, and postpone only in the best case.

Aye, Snifflin' Mac ha' some sense in his skull. 'Tis more'n I can say fer them as threw the lynch yesterDay.

Be main likely some o' they was mutineers– or, e'en liker, co-conspies as was a-feard o' takin down a mutineer by chance– but which on 'em?

EDIT: X'd since the Cooper.

[Boromir88]

Another point of interest...

I remember a recent past history, actually arguing the same thing before that if someone will be mod-fired, why not lynch them that day anyway.

I believe I remember Gwath disagreeing with my what I called 'conservative' approach...at least I think it as Gwath. If it was, care to explain the change Gwath?