Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

He says it would not be a bad thing to get the cobbler, but that conflicts his first statement that Nog's "afraid" Kuru will only be the cobbler.
That split vote for Nienna and Kuru was wierd too.

We only get to lynch one person. We should get a werewolf (or a vampire). That's the best option and we should try to do it whenever possible. We should also get rid of the cobbler but that's the second one in priority. So as I believed Kuru to be "only" a cobbler then I would be afraid lynching him would not give us a wolf eg. our primary target. What's the problem with that?

The split vote follows from that. One vote for someone I believed to be a wolf and another to someone I believed to be the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Kent

Were you trying to propel Nienna to the lynch

Of course I was. I thought she was a wolf and I wished to vote her for that. Do you vote people without wishing to see them lynched?

Originally Posted by Kent

or in the very least making your best attempt to save Kuru, without over-committing?

You call sending someone in a three vote lead before the deadline "an attempt to save that person without over-committing"?
You have an interesting vocabulary indeed!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Izzy

whomever has the most votes last would get the axe. I wonder about your voting order there Nog.

What about it? I gave Nienna her first vote and Kuru his fifth. What possible meaning would there be in the fact that I in a sense "first" voted Nienna and then Kuru?

But that raises an interesting question. I mean does it really matter if someone gives two players their last votes ending up with even number of leading votes on both? Does it then mean that which one the person voted "first" - even if it is in a same post - gets out from the trouble and the "latter" is lynched eg. is there a "first" and "second" vote if you vote two people in a same post like I did yesterDay?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Kent

Nifty excuse to not vote for someone.

No offense met Kuru, but I don't care if you only played every 100 years, if you are a baddie would vote you out as soon as possible, Day 1 or not, aren't in werewolf that much or not, shouldn't be a factor.

If you had seen me in other games, you'd know that I typically like to keep alive players who are newbies, infrequent players, or someone who tends to get Day 1 lynched often for the first Day or two. To me, it's a matter of fairness. It can be more frustrating as first time player, someone who hasn't played in a long time, or someone who always dies early compared to a regular to hardly play before getting killed, especially as a Day One lynch when reasoning behind suspicion isn't all that strong. WW is supposed to be fun and sometimes that situation takes out the fun and discourages the player from joining another game. I've seen it happen before.

Of course I'm not saying no one else should vote for that player; it's your own choice. But when I don't have any clear suspects, I will vote to save someone I'd like to see alive longer. At that point, it doesn't really matter if they're acting suspicious. Typically the most suspicious behaving player on Day One (who usually does get lynched) turns out to be an ordo. And of course I'm not going to give people free passes the entire game. I'm not sure about toDay, but certainly by toMorrow everyone is fair game in my book.

[Isabellkya]

That is what I was wondering Nog. Because technically you made your vote for Kuru after you voted for Nienna, essentially twice then retracted one of those votes. You wouldn't of been able to vote for Kuru if you hadn't of retracted one from Nienna.

Which brings up something else. You said you thought Nienna was a wolf, and Kuru a cobbler. So why even place a vote for Kuru, when lynching a wolf is of a higher priority?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, this certainly was an interesting kill. Got me thinking in a certain direction . . . Narrows down my suspicions somewhat.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

On another topic. What was this yesterDay Nilp and Firefoot? What were you thinking in here?

I can't speak for Firefoot, natürlich, but as for me I distrust any Seer hints made at certain (inopportune) times, and thus I make it an effort to expose such suspicious things. On any other DAY, perhaps, I would have kept such things to myself. But if you think doing such things make certain members of this group suspicious, I can't help you there.

But I hardly think you guilty, despite attacking half the village. I don't think you'd be that pointblank had you a hidden life. Mwahaha.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Which brings up something else. You said you thought Nienna was a wolf, and Kuru a cobbler. So why even place a vote for Kuru, when lynching a wolf is of a higher priority?

I'm not sure I should even bother answering your odd questions any more... Well, one doesn't exactly know who is what on Day1, right? So voting for two people you suspect the most furthers the chances that one of them gets lynched in comparison to other candidates. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

Originally Posted by Izzy

That is what I was wondering Nog. Because technically you made your vote for Kuru after you voted for Nienna, essentially twice then retracted one of those votes. You wouldn't of been able to vote for Kuru if you hadn't of retracted one from Nienna.

I have to ask you about this though. Would you explain me what are you after with this for it beats me entirely. I just don't get what you're saying - or the relevance of it.

Okay. Let me put it like this. The last one reaching the highest vote is lynched. Kuru's fifth vote was mine (33 min. before the DL) and Nienna's was the one given by Brinn (3 min. before the DL). Therefore Nienna got lynched because she got her last vote half an hour later than Kuru did.

Now how does this relate to the question of me choosing to vote Nienna first and Kuru the second - and what are you trying to imply would have been different or would have made my vote more/less suspicious in your eyes had I done it the other way around? I simply don't see it.

But I do understand that you prefer to discuss the voting of other people as yours look so bad... and the thing that worries me a bit as well is that your questions look so... how should one say it in English... factitious, artificial? Or maybe I'm just missing their point?


I'll come back to the voting and posting of Day1 a bit later.

Originally Posted by Nilp

But I hardly think you guilty, despite attacking half the village.

Haha... I don't think I have attacked half the village but I probably have suspected a third of it openly. And that's what we need to do in order to catch the baddies. And we all need to suspect more.

Old werewolf wisdom, part VII: Those who stab you at Night normally rub you nicely during the Day.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I said what I said knowing you'd say and think that.

I love this game.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Sheesh, players these days are lazy.

The DAY 1 vote list (times in GMT +8; known innocents underlined):

• 19:10 Nilp - Sally
  Sally - 1
  
  
• 04:58 Green - Agan (no highlight)
  Sally - 1
  
  
• 06:39 Kuru - Agan
  Sally - 1, Agan - 1
  
  
• 08:27 Fea - Agan
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2
  
  
• 09:47 Nienna - Nog
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1
  
  
• 10:02 Agan - Kuru +1
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 2
  
  
• 10:54 Kent - Kuru
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 3
  
  
• 12:11 Firefoot - Kuru
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 4
  
  
• 12:20 Form - Nilp
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 4, Nilp - 1
  
  
• 12:27 Nog - Nienna, Kuru
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 1
  
  
• 12:35 Gwath - Nienna
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 2
  
  
• 12:38 Sally - Nienna
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 3
  
  
• 12:39 Izzy - Nienna
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 4
  
  
• 12:57 Brinn - Nienna
  Sally - 1, Agan - 2, Nog - 1, Kuru - 5, Nilp - 1, Nienna - 5

Did not vote: Alonariel, Shasta, Green (invalid vote).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

My suspect list toDAY is pretty definite. But first, I need to say:

1. There's always a trail. Even the lack of an obvious one means there's a hidden one. A kill to confuse, for example, means those under suspicion the previous DAY are usually not guilty.
2. More often than not (unless our good Mod phantom is involved), this game can be pretty straightforward.

Who would get it? Let the head-scratching begin. (I really love this game. )

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

On another topic. What was this yesterDay Nilp and Firefoot? What were you thinking in here? Well, anyway it looks like the baddies took the hint. The remaining question is, whether the baddies were under pressure to kill her because Kuru is one of them or was it just a clean-up operation to be sure?

Well, obviously Agan was not the seer. If Kuru is not a wolf, the wolves would have known this, so this wouldn't be the reason that they killed her, as she would have just been an ordo (or a non-seer gifted). If Kuru was a wolf, though, and Agan was the seer, this wouldn't really make sense either since then we'd all know Kuru was a wolf because we'd know Agan was the seer. Unless they just wanted to limit the chance that she'd dream of another wolf... so that begs the question, even though Agan wasn't the seer (say she had a really lucky guess and the wolves thought she was), is Kuru a wolf anyway?

Or were the wolves not even thinking about the seer and just decided that Agan was too much of a liability?

And as for what I was thinking... a potential seer lead seemed like a really good Day 1 reason to vote Kuru. And if Agan actually had been the seer, I think the wolves would have guessed it... that's a little bit too lucky, to just pick one person basically off the bat, and then be so confident as to put two votes on him, and get it right.

Otherwise my vote would have been more or less random...

And just so you all know, I probably won't be around much toDay. Wednesdays are busy busy busy.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Has a last minute bandwagon ever worked? Ever!? I'm not saying I was right and y'all messed it up after I went to bed, given I obviously voted somebody who wasn't evil, but really? Nienna? You thought she looked guilty?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Consequently, everybody who voted for Nienna looks squeaky clean to me, given that wolves aren't foolish enough to draw attention to themselves so soon. They never are. It's always misguided ordos that bandwagon last minute on a first day.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

And because almost everybody who's playing knows perfectly well that last minute bandwagons on Day One are almost always (or just always) ineffective, that puts a new slant on the voters: everybody's experienced in this game, minus Alonariel (who's missing) and Kent (who's doing quite well regardless), so everybody should know better.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

(if it's not a given, I'm posting in fragments so that the internet actually lets me post; long stuff isn't an option)

Consequently, since everybody ought to know better, I'm torn between thinking everybody who voted Nienna (except Nog, for his double-vote, first off) is either basically innocent, or is incredibly brazen.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Except- logic dictates that brazenness typically doesn't happen because it's a lot of effort to keep up, and most people want to take the easy way out.

The question becomes: is it easier to sit back and let confused villagers mess things up on their own, or is it easier to make it look like they did?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm willing to temporarily bank on the fact that the bad guys wouldn't jump out so quickly when there was/is absolutely no reason to draw attention to themselves. Consequently, my attention is off Brinn, Izzy, Sally, and Gwath, and on Kent, Firefoot, and Nog.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Particularly Nog. Really? A double vote? Why spread yourself unless you know something, and if you know something, why spread your votes to cover somebody who turns out innocent?

And I'm focusing on those who attacked Kuru, because he's an easy target.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Gwath's and Sally's votes for Nienna look the most bandwagonish. They seemingly come out of nowhere - as in; literally right after you posted about her.

Like we were trying to save Kuru? Is that what you're saying? Why wouldn't we have just voted Aganzir in that case? Nogrod's case against Kuru seemed to me vastly more substantial (particularly for Day 1) than anything that had been said against Kuruup to that point. Besides, two votes doesn't make a bandwagon.

[Nogrod]

I just realised it when Fea finally posted something...

Now in a game organised by the phantom, what do you think are the odds that Fea is not a baddie? Zero. What are the chances she is Thuringwethil? I'd say 75%.

And what she said gives one reason to believe that it is so.

The only problem which I have with this interpretation is that it all looks even too easy and straightforward. Kuru-wolf is in trouble and his friend goes and helps him out in the last minute rush - and then Fea-vampire comes cleaning up the mess by trying to say those Nienna-wagoners must all be innocent - and that Kuru-voters will get her extra-attention because he's an easy lynch... (that probably is a threat for anyone willing to vote for Kuru toDay as well?)

Okay. I'm not buying that all quite yet but I need to think about it.

Originally Posted by Fea

Particularly Nog. Really? A double vote? Why spread yourself unless you know something

Originally Posted by me in #286 answering the same question by Izzy

Well, one doesn't exactly know who is what on Day1, right? So voting for two people you suspect the most furthers the chances that one of them gets lynched in comparison to other candidates. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

[Kent2010]

No, of course no one intends it to be insulting... unless, of course, by being insulting we manage to provoke you into revealing that you're a wolf.
-Formendacil

Don't worry, I got ya, I think it was just the wording and my own paranoia. Is it natural to think everyone is after you and around every corner your killer awaits?

You call sending someone in a three vote lead before the deadline "an attempt to save that person without over-committing"?
You have an interesting vocabulary indeed!
-Nogrod

You may have voted for Kuru, but in the same breath you drew suspicion away from him and turned the focus on Nienna. Which your suspicions just didn't make sense.

Then, as Form pointed out, after Form stated his vote might possibly go my way she comes up with:

Your first point looks alright, because I don't know why Nienna would think your insistance we do something would make you suspicious. I have no idea how you play, I'm assuming from what I've seen so far you are a heavy talker, so I didn't get Nienna's point. But the rest of your reasons are pretty suspect...

Especially that "I reserve the right to be completely and utterly wrong" strikes me very bad indeed.

Why? It looked like a different way, and rather creative, to say "I'm not sure," what oh so "very bad" about the statement?

Also she has posted what, three times, with basically nothing to say.

This just looks like another tack on for anyone to gobble up and latch onto

I'm not sure why you, or Form, or Fea, or anyone assume that by Kuru putting a hint about his role in his title would be "clumsy." Clumsy would suggest he made a slip up or some foolish error. But from my understanding Kuru is a long-time player, and if he did leave some coded message in a title or post, that's purposeful not clumsiness. It looks like a clever move actually, if someone believes they can get away with it.

The split vote follows from that. One vote for someone I believed to be a wolf and another to someone I believed to be the cobbler.

I'm not sure yet about you, but I will say if you are being honest, than it's possible a wolf grabbed your coat tail to get the wagon starting on Nienna and away from Kuru.

And I'm focusing on those who attacked Kuru, because he's an easy target.
-Fea

Why is he the easy target today? Because Agan's dead?

That's funny, because if the wolves are trying to set someone up, why not set up Agan and kill Kuru? Based on yesterday, Agan would seem to have been the easier target today. The only people who expressed no desire to lynch Agan were Form and myself. And Form voted for Kuru, but he sounded like his mind could be changed about Kuru. Sally and Firefoot were sounded indifferent regarding Agan and Kuru yesterday.

Kuru was almost lynched, but he had stronger support than Agan. Brinn didn't vote for him, saying he looked like the easy target Nogrod and Formendacil said they can't imagine Kuru being that clumsy regarding his tile...the people who tacked on votes against Nienna late indirectly supported Kuru...and today Fea, you echo Brinn about Kuru being an easy target...hmm?

If the wolves were looking to kill Agan, so we would suspect Kuru and lynch an innocent Kuru the next day, they only seem to be making more work for themselves. And besides me, I haven't seen anyone today state any sort of suspicion towards Kuru.

[Kent2010]

Something I forgot in my last post...

Agan suspicious because of smilies. Really, come on? You seriously were analyzing smilie placement? And I'm the newbie here?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Kuru was an easy target. Is always an easy target. He was, for those who don't know, the first ever Barrowdowns Werewolf Victor. Against me. People's first games are never forgotten.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Nog: I'm not Th-what'shername. Kent: even smilies are fair game to be analyzed.

[Kent2010]

If you had seen me in other games, you'd know that I typically like to keep alive players who are newbies, infrequent players, or someone who tends to get Day 1 lynched often for the first Day or two. To me, it's a matter of fairness. It can be more frustrating as first time player, someone who hasn't played in a long time, or someone who always dies early compared to a regular to hardly play before getting killed, especially as a Day One lynch when reasoning behind suspicion isn't all that strong. WW is supposed to be fun and sometimes that situation takes out the fun and discourages the player from joining another game. I've seen it happen before.
-Brinn

I mean nothing ill, fairness is just something I don't understand for this...Maybe it's just the person, but I don't want to be given easy treatment just because this is my first game. I want to be judged on the same standards (although some differences are understandable), but the fact that if someone was suspicious of me, but didn't vote for me because I'm new and ended up voting for Nienna, that doesn't seem very fair to her and it also makes me feel kind of crappy. Like..."Wow the only reason I'm alive is because of the pity for me being a newbie."

This seems like a bad game to try to be fair, because it's virtually impossible, someone will always be screwed on Day 1, just as someone will always be screwed for the wolves first killed. That's the reality, and I would have been frustrated had I been lynched in my first day, but I would have understood, and I feel pretty crappy if I find out someone else was lynced because people are taking it easy on me.

This is probably just different opinions on the matter, but if you do find an effective way to be fair in this game, please let me know.

Speaking of fairness...

Kent: even smilies are fair game to be analyzed.
-Fea

Agreed, but when you call someone talking about personal titles a stretch and proceed to analyze the placement of that person's smilies, that just looks silly.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

Don't worry, I got ya, I think it was just the wording and my own paranoia. Is it natural to think everyone is after you and around every corner your killer awaits?

Natural? Is there anything "natural" about this game? I don't know if it's natural, but it's certainly normal. Well, unless you're the phantom, maybe...

Now, let's set a few things right about the record here...

Originally Posted by Kent2010

I'm not sure why you, or Form, or Fea, or anyone assume that by Kuru putting a hint about his role in his title would be "clumsy." Clumsy would suggest he made a slip up or some foolish error. But from my understanding Kuru is a long-time player, and if he did leave some coded message in a title or post, that's purposeful not clumsiness. It looks like a clever move actually, if someone believes they can get away with it.

It's too overt, basically. Now, a cobbler CAN be deliberate--no doubt about that. It just doesn't make sense on Day 1, when you've got the whole village smelling of fish to stick yourself out an extra foot. Classic Cobbler strategy, and I've never seen anyone play a convincing game in another way, is to survive. You either survive so that the Wolves have that crucial extra vote in the later rounds of the game, or else you survive so that you can take the heat off them in the later rounds of the game.

On Day 1, there is no way that Kuru could know who the Wolves were, so I most certainly do not think he would have put himself on the line to save someone under attack (which would be who? Agan?). And if he wanted to do a pile of damage at the beginning of the game rather than the end, he could have used a stack of his bonus votes to skew things in all sorts of weird directions--either deciding the vote or making everyone else start wasting their bonus votes.

What's more, the Gríma role has an actual effective power that could be used again Lúthien at a later date--another reason for a potential cobbler to stay under the radar and live longer.

All that would be why I don't see someone as experienced as Kuru being so overt on Day 1.

Now, on to a factual error...

Originally Posted by Kent2010

And Form voted for Kuru, but he sounded like his mind could be changed about Kuru.

I most certainly did not. You need to go back and revisit my post. I am 99.9999999% certain I voted for one Nilpaurion Felagund. I did not vote for Kuru because I did not think he was the cobbler. If I had, I would have had no Nog-like qualms about killing him. A cobbler is a fine catch to make on a Day 1--but I didn't think we'd caught one.

Speaking of Nilp, I feel like I should keep more of an eye on him this game. He has a tendency to slip under my radar because of his long-standing auto-vote, self-destruct, and-guess-what?-he's-an-ordo role, and long-standing prejudices are hard to shake... and Nilp has a long standing "good guy" prejudice in my mind. Not saying he's guilty (no evidence in the slightest to do so yet), but reminding myself to do so.

More anon...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If you had seen me in other games, you'd know that I typically like to keep alive players who are newbies, infrequent players, or someone who tends to get Day 1 lynched often for the first Day or two. To me, it's a matter of fairness. It can be more frustrating as first time player, someone who hasn't played in a long time, or someone who always dies early compared to a regular to hardly play before getting killed, especially as a Day One lynch when reasoning behind suspicion isn't all that strong. WW is supposed to be fun and sometimes that situation takes out the fun and discourages the player from joining another game. I've seen it happen before.

I'm somewhat concerned that I find myself agreeing with Kent again... always a bad sign when someone seems to think the way you do in this game... but I'm also not buying this completely. Sorry, Brinn.

My difficulty here is that you voted for Nienna... who was admittedly not the most newbie nor the most silent person present yesterDay, but she had a good smattering of both. Now, I suppose it's possible that you saw/see Nienna as a toughened battle-veteran of WW, and given the amount of noise being made yesterday, I suppose she was in the noisy part of the pack... but still... I'm not entirely convinced.

It seems to me by your reasoning, Kuru would have been a more logical vote than Nienna. He was an old player, he'd done a lot of talking...

What's more, your vote for Nienna was decisive. Granted, you couldn't KNOW you were the final vote (three minutes before the deadline is early for a last vote, by the standards of some games), but you certainly knew you were putting Nienna into contention.

So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf?

Conclusion? Brinn is moderately suspicious.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Duly noted.

And Kent: we keep it fair, in terms of saving newbies at the expense of others, by behaving thusly with all new players. Less experienced players get the benefit of the doubt. It doesn't make for fair individual games, but it does balance out in the long haul.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Having read so far, I only have one thing to respond to (so far... ):

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We only get to lynch one person. We should get a werewolf (or a vampire). That's the best option and we should try to do it whenever possible. We should also get rid of the cobbler but that's the second one in priority. So as I believed Kuru to be "only" a cobbler then I would be afraid lynching him would not give us a wolf eg. our primary target. What's the problem with that?

The problem with that is that lynching a cobbler is better than lynching an innocent, and you can never be sure whether or not someone is a cobbler unless you lynch them. Unless you have a better lead on a wolf, I don't see any reason not to go after a Cobbler even if they do count as innocent.

More later.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Brinn

I'm somewhat concerned that I find myself agreeing with Kent again... always a bad sign when someone seems to think the way you do in this game... but I'm also not buying this completely. Sorry, Brinn.

My difficulty here is that you voted for Nienna... who was admittedly not the most newbie nor the most silent person present yesterDay, but she had a good smattering of both. Now, I suppose it's possible that you saw/see Nienna as a toughened battle-veteran of WW, and given the amount of noise being made yesterday, I suppose she was in the noisy part of the pack... but still... I'm not entirely convinced.

It seems to me by your reasoning, Kuru would have been a more logical vote than Nienna. He was an old player, he'd done a lot of talking...

Buy it or not, I stick to my own values. I have voted to save these types of players in games where I'm innocent and games where I'm a wolf because I genuinely try to be a fair person regardless of my role. And perhaps you don't agree it's fair, but it's how I feel and that's sometimes how I will vote on Day One, especially since most often I don't suspect anyone that much so early in the game.

Why do you think Kuru would be a more logical vote for me? As an older and more reputable player, I do value him more than a less experienced player. Sure he could be a wolf, but I don't suspect him right now and if he's innocent, he could be quite helpful to the village. I was the last vote of the Day, so it was up to me to decide Kuru and Nienna's fate. I admit I didn't suspect Nienna all that much, but between the two I found her to be more suspicious.

[Kent2010]

It's too overt, basically. Now, a cobbler CAN be deliberate--no doubt about that. It just doesn't make sense on Day 1,
-Formendacil

But maybe it's the best time to be overt, because how seriously do people take Day 1? You said yourself Day 1, on Day 1 is virtually useless, and becomes useful after the fact.

Now, on to a factual error...

And so comes my first big blunder, most likely of many.

I was thinking of the 5-5 tie, and forgot that Agan used one of her bonus votes, so mistakenly thought 5 people voted for Kuru.

[Kuruharan]

While I was at work this morning I was pondering why Aganzir was the kill choice last night.

The first and most obvious reason to kill Aganzir is that I am a wolf and the wolves thought they had found the Seer in her pegging me. However, this is impossible in every way because I am not a wolf and besides my ownself nobody knows that better than them. It is possible, perhaps, that they thought she was the Seer who had found Grima, but alas for them and goodie for us (if this is what they thought) they were wrong on both counts.

The second reason why they may have chosen to kill Aganzir is they were trying to set me up. It would seem possible given the fact that Aganzir would turn out innocent that the village would turn on me toDay and I would be lynched. If this is the case it is a bit clumsy but not particularly dangerous to the wolves and they may have thought it worth trying.

The third reason is that yesterDay she mentioned as being suspicious somebody else who is a baddie and the wolves wanted to dispose of her before she really got going on that other line of thought. Others at least vaguely mentioned by her include Brinn, some minor arguing with Kent, minor suspicion of Gwath and a bit of Greenie. She also bantered considerably with Form. Not sure its prudent to make much of that.

The fourth reason is that for personal reasons one of the wolves felt particularly threatened by Aganzir and wanted her out of the way as quickly as possible. If this is the case it might in some ways be the hardest to trace because the killing wouldn't necessarily have any relation to anything that happened previously.

The fifth reason is that Aganzir may have been so far off yesterDay in everything she said that the baddies felt completely safe in getting rid of her now.

The sixth reason is that Aganzir may have been a random kill.

Obviously, not all of these can be the case because several are mutually incompatible. I personally discount 6 completely because I don't think people have the luxury of acting randomly in this and even if they were wanting to their actions would probably be informed by prior events more than they would suppose.

I believe that it could be a mixture of options 2-4 (although option 4 would be an outlier but it could dovetail). Which one was the foremost in their minds at the time is currently an unanswerable question.

Comments? Any further possibilities why Aganzir was the target last night?

[Kent2010]

Oh and...

And Kent: we keep it fair, in terms of saving newbies at the expense of others, by behaving thusly with all new players. Less experienced players get the benefit of the doubt. It doesn't make for fair individual games, but it does balance out in the long haul.
-Fea

Ok, now I get your logic. I disagree, but I understand the reasons, and I could continue to argue about this in circles, but I will just say...for myself, just know I appreciate the courtesy but please I don't need to be coddled. If you find justification to come after me, than come after me, I can take care of myself.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

I appreciate the courtesy but please I don't need to be coddled. If you find justification to come after me, than come after me, I can take care of myself.

Let it be added that this "benefit of doubt" basically covers the first-timer mainly on Day1. ON Day2 most people are ready to handle the newbie as anyone else.

And sure we have different newbies. I think you need no extra protection. Keep on playing, you do it well.


On a second note. Interesting how Kuru appears very helpful doing an analysis on why Aganzir was killed - but looking at it more closely - how do I get a feeling it's more a post trying to convince us he's no baddie than a post to clarify the reasons behind Agan's death?

Someone questioned why no-one has suspected Kuru toDay. Well I can confess that I still do.

But I'll now try to look at other possibilities as well - and what could be implied if Kuru is a wolf / a cobbler.

[A Little Green]

I'm here at last. Quite frankly I would have thought I'd be able to be around more toDay but school stuff took more time than I expected.

First of all, seems like my yesterDay's vote was pretty much a fiasco - I don't really know how come I forgot about the highlight, and by the time I received Agan's SMS the Day was already over. Not that my Agan-vote would have been worth being counted...

I was about to make a list but decided against it when I realised I had so little to say about anyone. My list looked mostly like a mixture of "No read", "No idea", "Under the radar" and "Seems okay". I'd love to have a better look at yesterDay's voting (the Nienna bandwagon was disturbing), but I don't think I have the time today since I still have some schoolwork to do.

I had something else I wanted to say but can't seem to remember what it was. Hope I can come up with than still at some point. All I can recall is that it was something clever.


EDIT: x-ed with Kuru, Kent and Noggins

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

But maybe it's the best time to be overt, because how seriously do people take Day 1? You said yourself Day 1, on Day 1 is virtually useless, and becomes useful after the fact.

Well, I'm willing to leave you the caveat that a cobbler might do such a thing. I just don't see it as at all likely. My difficulty with your theory is that it requires a lot more foreknowledge of what is going to come--and who's who--than a Cobbler is likely to possess. Which is not the say that Kuru could not make an exceptionally smart cobbler--he's no dunce--but we're talking about prescience here. There simply wasn't enough talking going on prior to Kuru being accused of cobblery for him to have identified the wolves. And even if by some miracle he HAD identified them, he'd also have to know all of our characters really well to know how things were going to play out. That's where being a new player is an advantage--Kuru might have me figured backwards and forwards, but not you.

Basically, I just cannot envision a cobbler willfully drawing attention to himself on Day 1, except possibly to just wreak general havoc and leaving us wondering--but that would be a strategic loss to Team Wolf, since this cobbler actually has a one-time power. Far better, it would seem, to wait until he has a chance to use that one-time block and actually save wolfish lives than to throw it away at the beginning on the random chance of havoc.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Comments? Any further possibilities why Aganzir was the target last night?

One hugely important thing that might be involved is that whoever the wolves select as their nighttime kill has the potential, if an ordo, to become the new member of their pack, rather than supper. Granted, it's a one-in-six chance, but at this point in the game, when perhaps none of them are under suspicion, they picked a supper victim who would have the greatest chance of NOT being identified as a potential victim if we all woke up today, and no one was dead.

To put it in other words, perhaps the wolves decided that, if Aganzir was converted to their side, and we woke up today with no one missing from our midst, she'd be the last one we'd look for as a converted new wolf, simply because she had been so conspicuous yesterday, and thus the sort of noisy person that wolves leave around to keep the heat off themselves.

I'm hardly wedded to this, but it's the best theory that offers something rather than just random confusion as the answer--at least to my mind.

[Nogrod]

I'll start with my two cents on Day1 voting.

First I have to say I do dislike both the votes of Nilp and Form. Everyone is granted to like or dislike Day1's as much as they wish, but wrapping one's vote into a joke-paper is plain indecent and cowardish. We are left totally clueless about their votes but they can join the speculation over the other votes - and that is intentional. Very suspicious to me.

Secondly there is this oddly little-discussed mini-bandwagon on Agan. Greenie started with giving a reason for her early vote. Kuru joined the thought understandbly after the little row between him and Agan. Then Fea joined the voting. These were three votes in a row - even if Greenie's vote didn't count in the finally tally her intent was clear.

I'm afraid of Greenie every game I play with her as she has the capability to fool me completely but her vote looks the best of the three.

There was also a bandwagon on Kuru, started by Aganzir. Of those votes I'm still wondering most about Firefoot's "open" declaration of voting Kuru because she thinks Agan is the seer and has already dreamt of Kuru. It really baffles me. That's something an ordo tries to remain silent about.

Then there was that Nienna bandwagon we've already discussed a bit. Interestingly the first voters (after myself that is) eg. Gwath and Sally sticked to saying they suspected Nienna - and the two last ones, namely Izzy & Brinn made a host of reservations how they don't like what they were doing. Sure they had a more decisive position but till I feel a bit uneasy everytime someone says they are having bad feelings about the way they vote. That's something the wolves tend to voice out to make themselves look better.

[A Little Green]

I have to add to this discussion about granting people a free pass on Day 1 for different reasons. I think it's a sort of nice courtesy not to lynch people on Day 1 in their first game - or in their first game in a very long while - unless there is hard evidence against them. Deciding not to lynch somebody because that said person is enjoyable to play with is a trifle more complicated, since the person voted for instead easily gets a feeling that s/he is not as enjoyable to play with as someone else. And that, in my opinion, is one step away from fair play. After all, this game shouldn't be about lynching those you know little and keeping alive those you know and like best, but instead about letting everyone play and treating everyone fairly regardless of whether they are special favourites of yours or not.

I think Nog has been acting weird toDay. Earlier toDay he was sort of heated and overreacted to simple questions asked of him about his exceptional voting behaviour. Granted, he does that every now and then, but that doesn't make me less unnerved about it. His relation to Kuru seems interesting as well. That, in fact, being another thing I want to look at.

What else? Form, Kent, and Brinn seem innocentish, about the others I really have no idea.


EDIT: x-ed with Form and Nog

[A Little Green]

I checked the Nienna bandwagon. Actually, the one looking worst to me in that was Noggy. He starts with this:

Originally Posted by Nog

Of the rest I might vote for anyone for just not playing this game. Out from pure annoyance and frustration.

Nienna especially. That was soo bad...

I'll take a short look back and then vote, presumably for one of the slackers.

In his next post is a case against Nienna and the double-vote for her and Kuru. What I find interesting is that the earlier post makes it look like he just wants to choose one of the "slackers" (not a nice thing to say, by the way, and I'm not sure I understand what you mean with this anyway), and yet in the next one he brings up his case against Nienna, sounding like he genuinely suspected her of wolvery. I find this kind of controversial, rather like a wolf seeing a nice straw and grasping at it a tad too hard.

About the other Nienna-voters, then. Gwath and Sally both make their posts look like they decided to vote Nienna almost entirely based on Nog's post. Where that did make me raise an eyebrow, I agree with Fea - a wolf might want to avoid bandwagoning as obviously as that, knowing that it's considered classic clumsy wolf behaviour. Of the other two, Izzy looks slightly better based on the fact that she talked about Nienna before this bandwagon came out of nowhere. Brinn's vote looks innocentish too, though I, like Nog, feel somewhat wary about people who say they dislike their own vote and still vote the way they do.

[A Little Green]

I'm off to sleep since I need to be up at half past six tomorrow. I'll vote

++ Nogrod (this time I got the red colour right!!)

because he's the one I feel most uncomfortable about at the moment. For further reasoning, see my two previous posts. Good night!


EDIT: wow, triple posting!!

[Nogrod]

This one makes me crazy as I'm not sure whether I should agree with it or think of Form being the suspicious one here:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf?

Conclusion? Brinn is moderately suspicious.

Somehow I'm bending more into believing Brinn - she tends to play with a set of "values" as I do. These include wishing to treat old-timers coming back to the fray from a long time more leniently (like newbies) on Day1 - or not wishing to lynch the kind of "strong players" on Day1 - if there is not a reason to actually think them guilty (here we differed on Day1 one: I thought there was a reason to believe Kuru was not on the good side, she didn't).

The thing that makes me look at this post by Form suspiciously is the bolded part of it. The moral highground of after-wisdom!

I need to look at Form a bit more as I'm afraid some of these suspicions may stem from just the fact that we differ on many things in this game and it's easy to read disagreement as suspicious if one is not careful enough. And he makes good points as well, to be sure.

The wolves are also perfectly cabable of doing it though.

EDIT X'd with Greenie x2 - oh great!