Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Brinniel]

++Durelin

She was on my list of possible wolves, and I still think she could be. Something about her doesn't feel right...a bit sneaky. And she's always someone I'm wary of because she can be quite the sneaky wolf. I would further elaborate if I had time...

EDIT: X-ed since post 270

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Mmm, what I could do with a role involving posting requirements...

[Nerwen]

++Lommy.

Yes, she's a bit strange, somehow... but then so are you, Mith.

Hurry up everyone. 2 or 3 minutes left.

EDIT: X'd since Shasta at 275.

[Mithalwen]

Timecheck:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

++Lommy.

Yes, she's a bit strange, somehow... but then so are you, Mith.

Hurry up everyone. 2 or 3 minutes left.

Another crackup moment; Nerwen calling people strange.

[the phantom]

Hopefully Gwath isn't gifted. Now we will see what happens in the Night and see if the brilliant ploy that I thought I spotted will work.

Nerwen spotted it too, and Mith as well I believe- but I think both of them thought it was something slightly different. We'll see who's correct.

Fea- drat you for not showing up and chatting!

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

++Lommy.

Yes, she's a bit strange, somehow... but then so are you, Mith.

Hurry up everyone. 2 or 3 minutes left.

Oh that is my natural state... I would be insulted to be called normal!

[Nogrod]

Darn it... I'm in too late.

Oh my.

As it seems to be Gwath I'll make a point.

++ Durelin

[Macalaure]

Long and tiresome were the daily marches of our adventurers and Morgoth's maze seemed endless. Maybe if they had been able to focus solely on walking, they would be able to make it out more quickly, but every day they had to discuss the danger they were facing, and especially who among them were culpable for this danger. While their lungs were more than busy breathing, having to talk all day proved to be too much of a strain for some.

We dwarves are natural sprinters.... were the last words heard from Groin Redbeard before he laid himself down on the path and died quietly, never to return to his mines. The discussions were only marginally influenced by this event.

Shasta was the first to put his foot down: I most vehemently do not like phantom. He received a mixed response and much arguing ensued. Gwathagor, who already was under much scrutiny the last day, slowly and silently gwathered more and more antagonists. In the end, it was decided that he was evil and should die.

I pray to you, do not kill me! he pleaded.

Why? We have decided you are evil. Therefore you are. Nilpaurion made clear.

No, no, you're making a terrible mistake. Trust me. I promise I'll come back and tell you what it is later...

But no more was he able to say. With a swift move Nilp grabbed Gwathagor's tongue and, with a strength unheard of for such an old man, ribbed it out. Then Eönwë appeared and tried to stab Gwath with his sword. Unfortunately, since his sword was faked - and pointless - this proved a lot more difficult than he expected. Being dissatisfied with Eönwë's attempt, Lily took her own dagger and stabbed at Gwath, but her lack of sight hindered her severely. At last the phantom stood in front of the tongue-less and beaten Gwathagor, and with a rare antique gladius, and the words Sorry lad. Either you or me. he hewed at Gwathagor with repeated and heavy strokes, leaving nothing but a pile of bloody flesh and bones.

Gwathagor was dead.

Doesn't really look like Gwath was a wolf. Nogrod remarked.

Disappointed the group moved on, looking for a place to stay for the night. Just as they were turning away, they heard words coming from what was once Gwathagor

Take this kiss upon the brow!
And, in parting from you now,
Thus much let me avow
You are not wrong, who deem
That my days have been a dream;
Yet if hope has flown away
In a night, or in a day,
In a vision, or in none,
Is it therefore the less gone?
All that we see or seem
Is but a dream within a dream.

Gwathagor was the seer.

*~*

Dead:
Macalaure and Rikae (mods) - killed by wolves and turned into faulty quenya in Night One
Kitanna (ordo) - lynched by a pointless mob on Day One
Lalaith (ordo) - severed from her chalk, and her head, in Night Two
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - died from exhaustion on Day Two
Gwathagor - (seer) turned into a talking corpse on Day Two

Alive:
Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist
Mithalwen - factotum

Night Three has begun. Wolves: plot and kill. Assassin: assassinate. Others: shhh.

[Macalaure]

The expedition awoke from a peaceful night. Despite having lost their precious seer, it seemed to them like no evil thing had happened that night. When they prepared themselves to leave for today's march, they noticed something that made them think that even a miracle had happened. In a corner of the room they were sleeping in, they found many different items, a bow and arrows, cups, provisions, tooth picks, and other helpful things.

Praise the Valar for these useful gifts! the adventurers cried... until they had a closer look at what these diverse gifts were made of, after which they turned their faces away in disgust. They looked around, and only now they realized that Mithalwen, their factotum, was missing. What had happened during the night?

*~*

At the end of the last day, after many hard hours of marching - and an ill-advised lynching - our adventurers fell asleep quickly once they set up their camp. Two, however, only faked it, and they got up as soon as they deemed themselves safe. Quietly they made their way over their sleeping former comrades until they found the person whose life they desired to end this night. They could have killed their victim silently without waking her, but that was even below their lowly honour.

Mithalwen, oh Mithalwen dear. their whispered into their victim's ear, and Mithalwen woke up - only to look into the bloodthirsty eyes of two creatures of Morgoth.

Yet there was no fear in her heart, but something quite unexpected...

Oh my God! You are wolves, right? You are soo cool, you know. I never thought I'd ever get to see one of you! May I touch your fur?

The wolves backed away from this sudden onslaught of adoration. Shhh, be silent, you'll wake everyone!

Mith, however, was in no mental condition to restrain herself: But you are werewolves! You are going to kill all these nasty Valar-worshipping idiots! You rock! Then she hesitated. You know, I wanted to ask you something, but I'm not sure whether I should, but... may I ask you for an autograph?

The wolves exchanged looks. Well, I guess that's not a problem, what would you like us to write?

For Mithalwen, our biggestest fan!

The wolves smiled, obliged, and handed Mith her autograph.

She was confused. But this reads: Dear Mithalwen, you are going to be ki...

*~*

Dead:
Macalaure and Rikae (mods) - killed by wolves and turned into faulty quenya in Night One
Kitanna (ordo) - lynched by a pointless mob on Day One
Lalaith (ordo) - severed from her chalk, and her head, in Night Two
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - died from exhaustion on Day Two
Gwathagor - (seer) turned into a talking corpse on Day Two
Mithalwen - (cobbler) made into a diverse set of items in Night Three

Alive:
Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist

Day Three has begun. Have fun with it!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's funny, I actually expected Mith to die after reading her last post in the Admin thread. Anyway, so Mith was a cobbler. That tells us... what, exactly?

*swims off to peruse her posts*

And as for my end-of-day hyperness yesterday, I blame the seawater.

[the phantom]

Mith = Cobbler

She was making me wonder about that yesterday, when she was being so helpful.

Okay, I shall return to something I said yesterday-

Originally Posted by me

It's not really a trap. Well, it kind of is, but not one of my invention. It's something that someone else did that I think might possibly be a brilliant ploy and I'm trying not to say anything to make it misfire, because I honestly believe it might work. But we won't know till tomorrow if it worked completely.

Originally Posted by me

Now we will see what happens in the Night and see if the brilliant ploy that I thought I spotted will work.

Nerwen spotted it too, and Mith as well I believe- but I think both of them thought it was something slightly different. We'll see who's correct.

Well, it turns out I was part wrong about what I thought I had spotted. But I was part right as well. I still believe Nerwen and Mith saw it as well and reacted to it. Now that we know that she was indeed a Cobbler, Mith's reaction makes perfect sense. Nerwen's reaction makes me think that she is innocent.

Any guesses as to what was going on? Fea perhaps?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Any guesses as to what was going on? Fea perhaps?

Darling, this question reeks of fascinatingly unsettling adjectives.

Anyway:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Fea- I'll address this to you seeing as I'm rather confident you've caught it and you give me the best chance at finding the same wavelength without being too specific. I just need to bounce something off of you.

I understand that it can be a rather good idea to ruin one's credibility with certain members of the village for the sake of protection, but isn't there a huge risk of backfiring? Or do you think that it is simply worth the risk to protect someone who should not die and flush out someone who should. Argh... it's hard to say this without actually saying it. Do you understand where I'm coming from at all?

My answer, as soon as I read this, was, "Yes. I approve."

Now? And after yesterday's lynch?

I still approve.

My goal for the day is to spearhead campaigns (with no evidence provided by myself, because I'm too lazy to look for it and I'm hungry) against Lommy, Nogrod, and Shasta. Form is on my list of maybes. The phantom is still safe from my wrath, though he'll want to dance prettily to keep that way. I'm not worried about Greenie or Brin. I want to see more from Kath. The others? They've done nothing to garner my attention.

Phantom: whilst I still approve... dance pretty.

[Brinniel]

I expected Mith to be the one to die last Night, simply because it seemed everyone pushed her aside, regarding her as innocent. What I did not expect was her to turn out to be a cobbler; I really thought she was an ordo....obviously the wolves did not expect it either. Though when I think back on it, I suppose Mith's role isn't too big of a surprise..

The big surprise for me was Gwath...the seer? Did anyone see that coming? I certainly didn't. If he wasn't a cobbler as I suspected, I didn't think he'd be anymore than an ordo. Poor Gwath didn't really even get the chance to defend himself. I hate when that happens...

Anyway, looking back at Gwath's posts I found that the best possible clues came from here:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Feanor of the Peredhil - Potential wolf
Shastanis Althreduin - Probably innocent
Formendacil - Potential cobbler
Eönwë – Probably innocent, possibly a cobbler
Nerwen -
Kath -
Nilpaurion Felagund -
Durelin - Cobbler
Brinniel -
Nogrod - Probably innocent
A Little Green - Cobbler
the phantom - Potential wolf
Thinlómien - Probably innocent
Groin Redbeard - Innocent
Mithalwen - Innocent

Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

Now, the uncertainty Gwath later shares with those he listed as 'potential wolf' makes me think he never dreamt of them.

Of all the players, he shows the most certainty with four (Durelin, Greenie, Mith, Groin)...my best guess is that he dreamt of two of them. At first I thought this might reveal a lot more info until I looked back at the rules and realised cobblers are dreamt of as innocent...then my whole theory went down the drain. But if it helps, I kind of doubt Mith and Groin were dreamt of. When Mith came up with the lynch Kitanna suggestion, she didn't seem that wolfish to me...and I think Gwath would've thought the same. And Groin only made one post on Day 1...I really don't think he captured enough attention to be a seer pick. Which leaves Durelin and Greenie...two who in my mind would be much likelier seer picks and I think they are who Gwath dreamt of. And what would that mean? Durelin and Greenie could be either ordos or cobblers....considering what Gwath labeled them, he obviously thought the latter.

Of course in my analysis, I could easily be wrong....but for now I believe it's more likely Greenie and Durelin are not wolves, though I would have to agree with Gwath that at least one could be a cobbler. Though if it's towards the end of the game and they're still not assassinated/mauled, I could very well change my mind....as I don't see why an assassin or wolf wouldn't target them at some point. Funny that I voted for both of them, but in light of this, I think they'll be the first I'd eliminate as lynching candidates for toDay.

[the phantom]

You still approve, Fea?

That's wonderful. Problem is I have no idea what you're approving at this point.

You see, yesterday I was quite certain that you were the Seer and were running a brilliant double edged ploy.

I was quite confident that you had dreamed of me and knew me to be innocent, or at the least a non-Wolf, but in order to appear quite unSeerish to the WWs and in order to draw Cobblers out you painted me "guilty as sin".

It seems to me that Mith-Cobbler might have bit on it with her dedication to preserving me, and perhaps Form as well with his crazy Cobblerish attack on me. And I think Nerwen caught it as well, but she seemed to be hesitant until she got something clearer from you. Which makes me think that Nerwen is innocent.

So anyway, that's what I was talking about when I said this to you-

Originally Posted by me

I understand that it can be a rather good idea to ruin one's credibility with certain members of the village for the sake of protection, but isn't there a huge risk of backfiring?

I was saying that it was a great idea to point heavily at me to ruin your credibility with the WWs (make you look unSeerish), but that I was worried it would backfire, meaning that if you were killed during the Night the village would be sure to lynch me the next day.

But obviously I was completely off on part of that scenario, seeing as Gwath was the Seer.

[the phantom]

The big surprise for me was Gwath...the seer? Did anyone see that coming? I certainly didn't.

Me neither.

I did think more than once that he was not an Ordo, but I thought Cobbler was more likely, with only an outside chance of him being the Assassin. But I definitely wasn't thinking Seer. Probably because I thought I'd already located the Seer.

I'm not sure if I agree with you on his dreams though. I still need to go back and reread his posts, but based upon just that list that you quoted from him, I would peg Groin and Mith as his dreams. I mean- everyone else is "potential", "probable", or "probably". Or if they aren't that then they're "Cobbler", which the Seer cannot see. Only Groin and Mith have any sense of Seer certainty.

But as I said I'm not taking into account the rest of his posts. I shall go read them.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was saying that it was a great idea to point heavily at me to ruin your credibility with the WWs (make you look unSeerish), but that I was worried it would backfire, meaning that if you were killed during the Night the village would be sure to lynch me the next day.

Ha! I was so close...

The way I took it was that you were intending to ruin your own credibility in order to divert attention from the person you thought was the seer (obviously not me, since I'm not the seer). The backfiring would be that bad guys caught on to who you were protecting and your ruse failed, leaving the seer dead and you - the innocent - vulnerable and without credibility. Ie: to be lynched the next day.

I certainly didn't think you took me as the seer! Ha. That's great. I have no magic powers, I just read people as they appear to me. You, my darling, have benefits to being kept alive. At least until I have to kill you in order for the village to win. In which case you're not beneficial, you're a liability.

Obviously once Gwath died (did ANYBODY think he was the seer? I certainly didn't...), my understanding of your scheme got a little shoddy. You couldn't be the seer, so you couldn't be ruining your own credibility (and thereby protecting yourself), and the actual seer seemed to have escaped your attention completely. I thought perhaps (which is why I still approved) that you might have a good idea of who was cobbler hunter or something. Basically, I was hoping that though the seer had kicked it, your noble intention to throw yourself to the wolves to protect somebody you thought was more important than you would still hold true.

Obviously I was wrong on that one... I mean, you don't think anybody is more important than you.

So anyway...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was quite confident that you had dreamed of me and knew me to be innocent, or at the least a non-Wolf, but in order to appear quite unSeerish to the WWs and in order to draw Cobblers out you painted me "guilty as sin".

Oh, about this: I'm a realist: I prefer painting what I see. I think you are a force to be reckoned with.

I also think you're not the village's biggest threat. Not to bruise your ego or anything, sweetheart, but you don't scare me.

[Thinlómien]

We killed our seer, but at least the wolves killed a cobbler. This is actually quite funny... if losing a seer can ever be funny, that is. But he looked so unseerish! I mean, I thought he was an ordo but I wouldn't have been surprised if he had been a wolf, but he definitely didn't look gifted at all to me, quite frankly, the idea of him being gifted never occured to me.

I think I would have voted him yesterDay. Now you're probably asking: "You think? Don't you know?" But honestly, when I logged in at the deadline minute, I hadn't decided whether I'd vote Gwath because in principle, he was a little suspicious and he'd be dead anyway, or whether I should just go on and vote Shasta anyway. (Speaking of him, I don't think I suspect him that much anymore. I don't know why.)

Looking at the list Brinn kindly provided, I'm inclined to agree with tp that Gwath probably dreamt of Mith and Groin. I think that simply "innocent" looks like a rather seerish comment. I don't understand Brinn's opinion that he would have hid his real dreams under cobbler-names - that's too vague, and besides, he must have realised that him naming two people just "innocent" is going to make people assume he dreamt of them. Seers take things like that into account.

If this assumption is correct, it's too bad, because then Gwath died without giving us any actual knowledge. Everybody he dreamt of is dead and so is he. So we have to go on without him... I'm not too worried yet, though, because we are eight against five at the moment, but if we don't catch a wolf soon, it will get worse.

Also, I don't know what to think of the fact that our cobbler hunter hasn't killed anyone yet... are the ones who look most cobblerish innocents then? Or has the assassin been unlucky or not-so-smart with his/her picks? What should we think of the fact that Form lives? I mean, I think everyone can agree that he looked very cobblerish yesterDay. Should we assume that our cobbler hunter is an individualist or had a strong hunch about someone else, or should we assume Form is not a cobbler? What is he then? A bold wolf or a weird innocent? I'm a bit baffled...

I hate it when tp and Fea are speaking some secret talk of theirs. Makes me feel stupid. Maybe we should lynch them? Seriously though, I wouldn't be too surprised if they were the wolves and publicly communicating with each other like that...

I find Brinn's post toDay weird. Is it again that I don't agree with her, I don't know, but she is again looking at things from some odd perspective that makes her look suspicious. Usually, when we're both innocent, we agree pretty much, and now we don't, so should I assume she's evil this time? I don't know...


edit: xed with Fea x2

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

The way I took it was that you were intending to ruin your own credibility in order to divert attention from the person you thought was the seer (obviously not me, since I'm not the seer). The backfiring would be that bad guys caught on to who you were protecting and your ruse failed, leaving the seer dead and you - the innocent - vulnerable and without credibility. Ie: to be lynched the next day.

Strangely enough, I read his post like that, too.

Anyway, Gwath=Seer? Wow!
He was definately good at diguising it. Too good.
Or maybe he wasn't diguising it enough, and you that the things a seer can say to be helpful can also sound like wolvish trickery.

Very interesting indeed.

[Eönwë]

Have you noticed the way the two people that died highly suspected tp?

So, wither he's the wolf or he's being framed. It would be an obvious thing to frame him, as he's such a high-profile, attntion-grabbing player. It would be easy to pin the blame on himm.
But if he was a WW, he could easily pin the blame on what I have just stated, placing us in an almost dead-end about this matter. (there is never actually a dead-end in WW, or at least not in the games that I have played or read, but then again, that's looking back on games, when you know everyone's roles and actions). But the phantom could pull it off, definately. If he's a wolf, it will definately take some time before he's lynched.

But who would frame tp? The first name that comes to my mind is Form. But he's meantt to be cobbler according to the majority consensus. But is he really? I wonder if the CA (Cobbler Assassin, not Canada or California) did choose him. We'll probably find out tonight, but then again, he might assuage our conviction of his cobblerism.
But of courseanyone could frame phantom. And it may even be be a double-frame, so the person we think may have framed tp is actually being framed himself.
Also, Nilp springs to mind. He seems even more obscure than usual. He's acting strange, like he's coooked up some evil plan. But I've only played one game with him. And if he acts the same way each time he's a wolf then I think he must be innocent.

So let's see what happens.

edit: no x-posting

[Eönwë]

Well, according to my sources (the Who's online box) there's three people who are appearing invisible. In all probability at least one si playing this game. So post! Don't act so silent, people!

edit: Woo! Triple post. That just shows how quiet things are here. I've taken to talking (and arguing) with myself, for lack of activity on this thread, though not in a Nilp-ish way.

edit2; Anyone? Yoo-hoo! Anyone there *Knocks on Barrow door, which happens to be cold dark, ancient and made of stone. -Hey, anyone want to buy a chip of stone from a barrow door?- Knocks again*

[Nogrod]

One more seer lynched in the beginning of the game... That's no credit for us.

I don't claim to be anything like Mr. Right here but c'mon, where did you guys get the idea Gwath should be lynched? Both on Day1 and Day2! I would really like to hear from you Gwath-voters why did you think him a baddie - and it would be interesting to go back and see the claimed reasons as it looks there was some easy bandwaggoning included.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I hate it when tp and Fea are speaking some secret talk of theirs. Makes me feel stupid. Maybe we should lynch them? Seriously though, I wouldn't be too surprised if they were the wolves and publicly communicating with each other like that...

I did speculate on the possibilities with Fea and tp already yesterDay and I am not sure I wish to add to that anything like yet.

But let me add that toDay they look more like cobblers both of them trying to fill the thread with things that don't actually help us eg. speculating their mutual interpretations of what the other thought about this and that and all that other stuff. And with Eönwe already going along with that speculation it seems they are succeeding...


I do agree with tp that Gwath's dreams were Mith and Groin. That looks quite obvious looking at his list there with only the two marked clearly as innocents... all the others are speculative... also the cobblers, as he wouldn't have known that.

That's pretty bad as it means we have no known innocents by Gwath.

Looking at the bright side it seems our cobbler-assassin has two non-cobblers for us. Although we wouldn't know whether they are wolves or innocents... But let's hope s/he gets us a cobbler the next Night.

Okay. I'll check a few things and try to do something before going to sleep.


EDIT: X'd with Eönwe X 2

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

speculating their mutual interpretations of what the other thought about this and that and all that other stuff.

But don't you want to know what Phanty and I think about each others thoughts and innermost longings as they relate to killing you?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

But don't you want to know what Phanty and I think about each others thoughts and innermost longings as they relate to killing you?

If you have that interest shared I'd rather not.

But I do hope that after that the others will lynch you asap. But meanwhile we should go for the wolves and cobblers - unless it's you two which would explain a lot.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

unless it's you two which would explain a lot.

Might be him. Sure as heck isn't me.

Now move your furniture!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Now move your furniture!

Allright, allright... Sorry if I was on your way. It will be done, soonish...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Allright, allright... Sorry if I was on your way. It will be done, soonish...

Aww, I love you, hunny.

Even if I want to lynch you.

[Nogrod]

Mith-the-cobbler

On Day1 she says "Let's kill Nogrod", which is normal. Says it's normal that Dury suspects her. Suggests the Kitanna-lynch for risk management and loves being manipulated by tp. Says "at least one our wolves is keeping a low profile today" and votes Kitanna.

On Day2 she really starts to defend the phantom. This one quote is interesting: "Phantom darling, want to keep you around so will do what I have to do..". Says Lommy is odd, suspicious. Says: "it would be unwise to "misunderestimate" Shasta" but at the next post says "Shasta and Phantom promises to have play value. Lets keep them! Please?" Votes Lommy.


So not too much to go on but that she thought tp was up to no good and that she thought Lommy is an innocent. That Shasta-stuff is a bit odd but then again she was the cobbler... and to be sure she didn't know any more than we do (unless my initial interpretation on the cobblers knowing each other was right in the end - which I do hope is not the case).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

But who would frame tp?

*raises hand*

Only on principle, though, I assure you.

I also think it's folly to assume so quickly what Gwath's dreams must have certainly been. I mean, we can't be totally sure, can we? Same with phantom's assertion that he was dreamt. Hate to break it to you, but you're not as important as you think you are.

Edit: Oh, hello. X'd with Nogrod.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I also think it's folly to assume so quickly what Gwath's dreams must have certainly been. I mean, we can't be totally sure, can we?

I agree. I, in effect, think he was pretty useless, on the seer front. Not that I don't like him a whole lot, but really? Even if he did definitively dream of Groin and Mith, they're dead. Any other "well I think he's guilty!"s that Gwath might have come out with have exactly as much credibility as me saying, "I really want Shasta to die. Like really. Hardcore. A lot. Like, I'm not willing to stake my life on it or anything, but it would please me because I think he's guilty as sin. Same for Lommy. Maybe not as much for Nogrod, because he went along with my spastic furniture order. But definitely the other two."

EXACTLY that much credibility.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I agree. I, in effect, think he was pretty useless, on the seer front. Not that I don't like him a whole lot, but really? Even if he did definitively dream of Groin and Mith, they're dead. Any other "well I think he's guilty!"s that Gwath might have come out with have exactly as much credibility as me saying, "I really want Shasta to die. Like really. Hardcore. A lot. Like, I'm not willing to stake my life on it or anything, but it would please me because I think he's guilty as sin. Same for Lommy. Maybe not as much for Nogrod, because he went along with my spastic furniture order. But definitely the other two."

EXACTLY that much credibility.

Love you too, Fea, dear.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Looking at the list Brinn kindly provided, I'm inclined to agree with tp that Gwath probably dreamt of Mith and Groin. I think that simply "innocent" looks like a rather seerish comment. I don't understand Brinn's opinion that he would have hid his real dreams under cobbler-names - that's too vague, and besides, he must have realised that him naming two people just "innocent" is going to make people assume he dreamt of them. Seers take things like that into account.

But why would the seer quickly list off his dreams as innocent when he can't be sure if they're ordos or cobblers? By listing someone off as innocent it would give more of a message to trust that person rather than just not lynch them. While if he listed his dreams as cobblers, we'd know not to lynch them but at least not necessarily trust them.

Though the main reason I'm guessing Durelin and Greenie to be his dreams among the four is because they seem more likely seer picks. Both girls are quite sneaky as wolves, especially Durelin, and if I were the seer I'd pick them. I suppose there's a possibility Mith was dreamt of Night 1 but she did not look wolfish enough at all to be picked Night 2 in my opinion. And Groin...considering his low level of activity, I don't see why he'd be dreamt of over other players.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I also think it's folly to assume so quickly what Gwath's dreams must have certainly been.

I agree with you. What I wrote about Gwath's dreams is pure speculation. I could be wrong. So could everyone else. We just can't know for sure. But I wanted to point my thoughts out because it is a possibility.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Fea

I mean, you don't think anybody is more important than you.

Ha ha!

No, no... I'm willing to admit that the Assassin is slightly more important.

But just barely.

Originally Posted by Fea

Not to bruise your ego or anything, sweetheart, but you don't scare me.

*pouts*

Originally Posted by Lommy

I hate it when tp and Fea are speaking some secret talk of theirs. Makes me feel stupid.

Oh, you're not stupid. Just out of the loop. We can't all be popular.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Have you noticed the way the two people that died highly suspected tp?

What village are you participating in, buddy? Lalaith thought I might be a Cobbler, and Mith was totally in my camp. If they wanted to make me a believable WW they never would've touched a hair on Mith's head! Were I a WW you can guarantee I would've kept her around as long as possible in hopes that she would continue to help me out.

So anyway, no, I don't think it was an attempted frame up.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

But let me add that toDay they look more like cobblers both of them trying to fill the thread with things that don't actually help us eg. speculating their mutual interpretations of what the other thought about this and that and all that other stuff.

Sorry, but I felt it necessary to explain my comments from yesterday. Surely that is not out of bounds?

Originally Posted by Shasta

I also think it's folly to assume so quickly what Gwath's dreams must have certainly been. I mean, we can't be totally sure, can we? Same with phantom's assertion that he was dreamt.

First, I didn't say Gwath dreamed about me. I said he dreamed about Groin and Mith.

Second, why not assume? I mean- we have to start someplace. If we aren't going to try and interpret the dreams of a Seer we might as well never have one. Of course in this village our problem is that both the assumed dreams are dead.

Originally Posted by Brin

But why would the seer quickly list off his dreams as innocent when he can't be sure if they're ordos or cobblers? By listing someone off as innocent it would give more of a message to trust that person rather than just not lynch them. While if he listed his dreams as cobblers, we'd know not to lynch them but at least not necessarily trust them.

Okay, I do understand where you are coming from, but do you honestly believe that Gwath would do that? He knew he was the Seer, even if we didn't. He realized that his words might be looked at.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I had to do this because I was suspecting Dury a lot and wished to see whether it was just that she kept on suspecting me with reasons I thought were sham or was there anything "real" behind my suspicions.

So here then is my

Durylysis (eg. comments and points with some quotes)


On Day1

Originally Posted by #16

So the cobblers can help lynch a wolf, and the wolves can always kill a cobbler. There's only two wolves and there's a seer.

This should be an interesting show! I only wish there were more risks involved for the cobbler assassin...or any risks at all for that matter!

Anyway, let's try not to lynch our cobbler assassin or seer today.

I don't think a wolf would naturally make the middle sentence (about wishing more risks) but the last one is just a classic wolf-comment early in the game.

In #66 she has good points about false reveals and continues:

I really am finding it hard to even toss out random suspicions atm. I'm always for lynching the phantom, though. I say we give Nogrod a little time.

Sudden thought: I bet Mith makes a great cobbler.

Nicely right with Mith even if she had no way of knowing it (unless she's a cobbler as well and they know each other and she decided to be quite a bold one... eg. I don't think so)!

She protest the Kit-lynch saying it only gives us one more day to play and says that's silly. But she doesn't say why not take one more day or why is it silly. She suspects Gwath (seer) for "a good bit of back-and-forth-ing" and Lalaith (innocent) as her ""fishy" comment feels like an easy stir up of things". Also Lommy feels off to her. Then she speculates on wolf-tactics:

Originally Posted by #109

the wolves will want to be a good bit more careful about killing off their cobblers in this game, with so many of them and only two wolves.

Protests somewhat strongly Gwath's vote for Kitanna being bad policy.

Votes Gwath because she doesn't like his attitude. Notes jokingly she's bandwaggoning (Greenie had voted Gwath just before her).


On Day2

Now Dury you have to help me out with this as I just can't get it.

Originally Posted by #169

But, as Nerwen pointed out, it's in the cobblers' interest to avoid getting one of their wolves lynched (and their fellow cobblers, though that's secondary in importance). And as a wolf, I might well have considered *going with the flow* on that one, myself, even though it goes against my WW 'philosophy' (lolz, I know). There has never been a cleaner appearing lynch and never could be. I'm really going to have to try to not focus on the people who neatly went along with the Kitanna lynch.

I found myself disagreeing with Nogrod on several things already, which makes me feel we are on different sides...in this case meaning he is of an evil sort.

Now what I say in that quote is that there should be baddies in the Kitanna bandwaggon. Then Dury goes on "disagreeing" by saying that that were she a wolf she would have considered "going with the flow" eg. voting Kit. And then she says: "I'm really going to have to try to not focus on the people who neatly went along with the Kitanna lynch"???

And the result of all that is that she is disagreeing with me on "several things" (which they might be as with the main point we agree here?) and that makes me evil... Hmm...

I'm also a bit worried about of what she says the next:

Originally Posted by #169

As for the Lalaith kill, she was set on phantom and interested in Gwath. I doubt she was killed as a potential seer because she suspected a wolf, but her suspicion of phantom and her jump on Gwath were both more purposeful than most of the typical musing going on. Anyway, as Eonwe pointed out, she may have just seemed un-cobblerish to the wolves. And as Fea pointed out, she may have been a *maybe the seer* pick without anything behind it.

I mean the way she tries to downplay the possibility of Lalaith's death having to do with tp, even going as long as making this last: "as Fea pointed out, she may have been a *maybe the seer* pick without anything behind it". That I find pretty incredible but what wouldn't a fellow wolf - or a cobbler indeed - do if there were only two of them?

She ends the post as confusedly as the post had been all the time by saying that I made a case against Groin

for show only. And yes, he voted for Groin. I had to go back and look, I couldn't remember at all who he voted for.

On #201 she suddenly becomes sharper and brighter with comments against Fea's poor / hasty judgements like:

I think it's very silly to assume that the cobbler assassin or the seer have done or are going to choose a specific person, I don't care who.
---
The entire village didn't vote for Kitanna. Greenie and I voted for Gwath, Brinniel and Eonwe voted for Greenie, Lommy voted for Nogrod, Nogrod for Groin, and phantom for Lalaith. The scattered voting at the very end is of concern, but everyone's too busy still arguing about yesterDay and is distracted by Form and of course ever distracted by phantom.

Also when Brinn pressed the point that the wolves wouldn't like to vote Kitanna she goes:

To gain the village's trust. To do something people wouldn't expect a wolf to do. Their goal is more to survive than just to mindlessly slaughter as quickly as possible! To leave a clean vote. To continue a debate that will distract the village...

Which is good thinking - even if I do think at least some baddies might not have resisted voting Kit with the wagon on Day1...

Interestingly she says Mith's "moves" have made her practically a known innocent!!!

Originally Posted by #207

Both Form and Gwath seem like they're trying to make enemies.

On #230 she doesn't like Kath's attitude and feels sorry for me being misunderstood. Thinks she agrees with some of my points on tp and Fea but still suspects me. Then she makes a list:

My baddie list:

Nogrod
Kath
phantom
Fea
Gwath
Nerwen

I feel good about Shasta, Eonwe, Lommy, and Greenie. I feel pretty good about Nilp and Mith. Not sure about Brinn. Did I miss anyone? (Other than Groin.)

And ends up with me and tp being the baddies and of us two me even if I had made good points on tp they were made in a wrong fashion and thence I was the more suspicious.

Then she votes:

Originally Posted by #233

Nogrod because he feels the worst. My brain tells me nasty things about others, but the most *feeling* is involved with him.

---

Well did I get enlightened?

Nope.

But it didn't lessen my suspicions a lot either...


EDIT: X'd with Brinn and tp

[the phantom]

Oh, and Shasta- I believe you wanted some clarification on Cobbler comments.

Well if I recall correctly, the attitude behind the first comment was simply that we don't have to try and kill them in order to kill them. Just look at last night. The WWs killed one for us. And with numbers the way they are you know that the Assassin is closing in on others. And you figure we'll lynch one perhaps because part of their job is to get themselves lynched rather than Werewolves.

The second comment I believe I was telling Nogrod that certainly we can't ignore them from a gameplay standpoint, in the sense that certain situations will arise when we must debate or at least privately consider whether something is as it seems or a ploy by a Cobbler.

Basically, we don't need to be desperate to lynch them, but we should be aware in certain situations that Cobblers are present.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I have a quick question. I've never played with cobblers before. As long as we kill the wolves, the village wins, right? We don't have to kill the wolves and the cobblers?

[the phantom]

Unless the rules have changed, I think the number of WWs is the only thing that determines the outcome.

WW numbers = villager numbers, then WWs win

WW numbers = 0, villagers win

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinn

And Groin...considering his low level of activity, I don't see why he'd be dreamt of over other players.

Those two play a lot together - like in RPG's and such - so it would be natural choice for him. But you're right in that we don'r know. Yes we do not.

But just coming back to one point on my "Durylysis". Now she said yesterDay that Mith is as good as a known innocent. And then Mith died the next Night.

Would she be that bold a wolf? I don't think so. It would be a mad gamble with no clear advantages to be won - so just sport.

But someone read that.


It's like being a detective only to find an empty bag of money the murdered had carried before getting killed and realise it was the contents of the bag why she was killed for...