Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

[/I]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

the kind of behavior that attracts suspicion by conspicious noncontribution (is that a word?) - is not a behavioral pattern that a sane wolf would continue indefinately, especially as it's so easy to remedy.

I'll leave that to our resident grammar nazi... oh wait, he was lynched Day 1 after making one post.

"wolves do this, I'm not doing this, therefore I'm not a wolf" is a prime example of flawed logic.

3 things from this post. Let us continue the Shasta/Eomer show:

1. Because staying very quiet and unhelpful for a mere 2 days is unthinkable? It's easy with hindsight, Shasta, but EW looked like bad news! Loads of people thought so!

2. Different with Sixth Wizard. He made one post and obviously couldn't return. I agree that his lynching was not warranted. Elf-Warrior made 5 posts, all completely lacking in insight. That's way more suspicious.

3. I'm not constructing a logical argument to demonstrate my innocence. All I'm saying is that if I was a wolf, I'd be gentler in my public dealings. I am not trying to convince you -- that would be futile -- but perhaps some other folk in the village remember me as a colder, more dismissive wolf, rather than the loud, fight-seeking chap I'm showing myself to be here today. It's not general; it's particular to me. Frankly, I don't care if anyone buys it; I'm not hiding my thoughts, and it's way less pressure to play as an innocent.

[Boromir88]

It seems like too much talk is being put on Kath (and now a Shasta and Eomer spat). Eomer, we do have leads now to follow...Nerwen. And we shouldn't just do a 180 because your trap didn't work.

I find it apalling that really only Agan and Nilp have mentioned Nerwen and who can possibly be her partners. Sally and Form (I think) have mentioned her in passing, but didn't name any possible connections. The wolves left us with no leads regarding their kill, but we definitely have leads now that one wolf is dead.

Go with me on this, if you will. I don't think the odds of us finding the flipped wolf are going to be very high, so let's not ignore it, but also not make it our top priority.~sally

I was about to jump all over your for this, until I read it through again and caught the "lets not ignore it" bit. I agree, we can spot the flipped wolf, and this definitely changes the whole dynamics of the game. Now people that I strongly felt were innocent (Eomer, Eonwe, Agan) could suddenly be the one who changed sides overnight. Spotting a flip is possible, but I agree it definitely shouldn't be our priority.

Our priority has to be looking through Nerwen's posts, and finding out any leads to go on. I'll have to leave by saying that, and will be back before the deadline. Look through Nerwen's posts.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

[/I]

3 things from this post. Let us continue the Shasta/Eomer show:

1. Because staying very quiet and unhelpful for a mere 2 days is unthinkable? It's easy with hindsight, Shasta, but EW looked like bad news! Loads of people thought so!

2. Different with Sixth Wizard. He made one post and obviously couldn't return. I agree that his lynching was not warranted. Elf-Warrior made 5 posts, all completely lacking in insight. That's way more suspicious.

3. I'm not constructing a logical argument to demonstrate my innocence. All I'm saying is that if I was a wolf, I'd be gentler in my public dealings. I am not trying to convince you -- that would be futile -- but perhaps some other folk in the village remember me as a colder, more dismissive wolf, rather than the loud, fight-seeking chap I'm showing myself to be here today. It's not general; it's particular to me. Frankly, I don't care if anyone buys it; I'm not hiding my thoughts, and it's way less pressure to play as an innocent.

The Shasta/Eomer show. I like it.

1. In regards to the EW bandwagon, I somehow doubt "loads" of people thought he was bad. I think a few misguided innocents started it, then maybe a wolf or two jumped on, and the rest was a mix of maybe another wolf and a couple of "oh well" votes.

2. Five posts over the course of 96 hours is lying low, I agree with you there, but in his last two posts EW clearly stated he didn't have time to elaborate on his votes. And no one is ever especially active on Day 1 in most cases.

3. How you would act as a wolf, if you were one, makes no never mind in this case because you do not, can not have proof. How can we know you are what you say you are and how you would act if you aren't what you say you aren't? (I'm sorry, I know this particular point is muddled, but it's quite early for me.) And putting such emphasis on your past performances as a wolf leads me to the obvious conclusion that you're relying on that because you've drastically changed your wolf-style and are trying to make people think you haven't.

I think I shall go to bed now, it's five in the morning for me.

Stay tuned for another episode of the "Shasta/Eomer show", folks!

Edit: X'd with Boro, who doesn't like our regularly scheduled programming.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ja, ja, Boro. I was about to but got distracted.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nerwen brings up the so-called Aganzir/Nilp/Formendacil ‘’brawl’’. Bit dangerous to try to direct people onto fellow wolves like this. Some people actually find such patterns intriguing.

Definitely not Aganzir.

Kitanna votes Nerwen. Would she do that?

Rikae votes Nerwen. Would she do that?

Nerwen votes Eonwe. Unnecessary, I think.

Nogrod defends Nerwen.

Nilp accepts Kit’s reason but not Rikae’s for voting Nerwen. Sort of defends Nerwen.

Shasta ‘likes’Nerwen. (Ref. 144) Says she’s ‘not suspicious’. Nerwen also rolls eyes at Shasta for reminding her of that whole Agan/Nilp/Form thing at the start.

Aganzir’s Nerwen/Nilp stuff is interesting.

Boromir is not buying anything Nerwen says.

Nogrod trusts Nerwen.

Eomer trusts Nerwen a bit more after thinking her a wolf Day 1.

Nogrod’s not saying Nerwen’s innocent, mind you.

Boromir and Aganzir pretty convinced of Nerwen’s guilt.

Sally maybe a little bit suspicious of Nerwen.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That's what I found interesting. Loads of stuff.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The Shasta/Eomer show. I like it.

1. In regards to the EW bandwagon, I somehow doubt "loads" of people thought he was bad. I think a few misguided innocents started it, then maybe a wolf or two jumped on, and the rest was a mix of maybe another wolf and a couple of "oh well" votes.

2. Five posts over the course of 96 hours is lying low, I agree with you there, but in his last two posts EW clearly stated he didn't have time to elaborate on his votes. And no one is ever especially active on Day 1 in most cases.

3. How you would act as a wolf, if you were one, makes no never mind in this case because you do not, can not have proof. How can we know you are what you say you are and how you would act if you aren't what you say you aren't? (I'm sorry, I know this particular point is muddled, but it's quite early for me.) And putting such emphasis on your past performances as a wolf leads me to the obvious conclusion that you're relying on that because you've drastically changed your wolf-style and are trying to make people think you haven't.

I think I shall go to bed now, it's five in the morning for me.

Stay tuned for another episode of the "Shasta/Eomer show", folks!

Edit: X'd with Boro, who doesn't like our regularly scheduled programming.

Actually, Shasta, that may be the end of the show, because there's nothing really interesting I need to respond with here. Your case against me is too weak. But looky looky at what I found about Nerwen!

You liked her. Yes, you did. All childish taunting aside, you were defending her when a couple of villagers were strongly on her trail. She also gave you a tiny bit of interaction, rolling you one of these -- -- when you said you disagreed with her Agan/Nilp/Form idea. ''Look everyone, we're not allies, honest!''

Immediate thoughts from list:

Innocent

Aganzir
Boromir
Rikae
Eonwe
Kitanna

Dodgy

Shasta
Nogrod
Nilp

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Elf Warrior was adding too little, and what he did add came with no insight or thoughts. I find such behaviour suspicious. I don't see what the big deal is here.

Shasta seems utterly against Eomer on his assurance of EW's guilt based upon what to me looks like the above theory. I know yesterday at least Rikae was following the same sort thing, calling EW "dead weight" at one point. So, why attack Eomer about it, Shasta?

Originally Posted by Eomer

And I'm implying that you are a Wolf, eager to make himself look good by making a lot of other people look bad. We got it wrong, but at the time a number of us thought EW was guilty. I also noted that you found me suspicious yesterday and have found another reason to criticise me.

Could it be Eomer's vehement defense of himself?

I see what Eomer is saying about his belief that EW was up to mischief, hacker or spammer-wise, but this Shasta and Eomer back and forth is interesting to say the least. They both make good points against one another, but neither is really smelling like roses at this moment. And now I find Eomer slightly stranger looking because of all this. Simply because of my, as he called it, colorful WW past with him.

Originally Posted by Eomer

All I'm saying is that if I was a wolf, I'd be gentler in my public dealings. I am not trying to convince you -- that would be futile -- but perhaps some other folk in the village remember me as a colder, more dismissive wolf, rather than the loud, fight-seeking chap I'm showing myself to be here today.

I lack experience with an innocent Eomer, so maybe he speaks the truth. But even the best wolf will occasionally want to change up his game to throw off the village. A wolf in sheep's clothing so to speak. But there are plenty of hours left in the day and I'm interested to see what both Shasta and Eomer have to say, though maybe not about each other.

In any case obviously Nerwen needs to have her posts looked at. I plan to look at Eonwe voters still and if I'm feeling especially Nancy Drewish I'll take a gander at EW voters. For today I actually don't have work so I am free to actually make more in depth posts.

[Nogrod]

Back again!

Just a few comments to begin with.

Now some people have asked the question why Kath was killed and it seems there is an agreement that the kill left no trails. I'd like to add one more perspective to the question. The wolves missed their kill on the first Night of the game so whoever it was they were trying to kill that Night would have been 100% proof kill last Night. So did they go for Kath already on that first Night or did they have "a better idea"? The ranger knows it but should of course remain silent about it for the time being. But s/he should think about the meaning of that.

Secondly. I'm most unhappy about yesterDay's voting. Even if I consider Eomer to be more innocent than hairy I do share Shasta's attitude towards the lynching. They (Eönwë and EW) were too "suspicious" to be wolves, really. I said it already yesterDay and I say it now once again. So now we have two large bandwagons searching the real culprits from is just painful. But I'll try to do something to that end the next.

Also it would be helpful if someone had time to see who remained silent about Nerwen when she was the talk of the town. That might shed some light indeed.

[satansaloser2005]

Hmph. Wish I had some more time to post but I need to be heading out in like....erm, now-ish. *is not a morning person* Anyway, I'll try to pop back in at lunch and check up on things, so you probably won't here from me for a bit just so you all know.


In the meantime....well, I've got nothing. Sorry I don't really have time for a proper post, but I've got to hurry off to work. Play nice while I'm gone.


EDIT: x'd with Noggie

[Kitanna]

Nerwen
Post # 6:
Nothing much IC.
Post # 12:
A joking accusation of EW. Some fangurl gibberish about the movies. Again nothing much to go on.
Post # 14:
More rubbish, this time about cannons as opposed to canon.
Post # 19:
Responds to my joking accusation of Boro as a hacker. Calls Boro a hacker. States Harry Potter sucks or sux as she put it.
Post # 24:

ppl who do lots of loNg posts sayng nUthing & then maek liSts taht dont maek sence r up 2 sumthing IMHO.

This is what set me off about Nerwen because she said long lists don't make sense and those who make them are up to something. Yet she was making frequent short posts that meant almost nothing. A habit she kept up until she had to drop out.
Post # 30:

if ppl th1nk oth3r ppl R evul they should say Y.

1f they dont it looks liek their hiding beh1nd th3ir r0les.

And again that's what she was doing, hiding behind her role as rabid fangurl.
Post # 31:
IC making fun of Eomer. Commenting on his ability to looking into her soul.
Post # 34:
Responding to Nilp's IC remarks about her listening to Melkor and Mandos saying she was innocent.
Post # 37:
A little bit of something, finally. Mostly believes Eonwe, Sally, myself, and to a degree Durelin are just IC with our first votes. Though she is wary of Durelin, not sure what set her apart. Probably IC rubbish on Nerwen's part. Does cast some suspicion on Nogrod. Also says Nilp and Form argued a lot without saying anything.
Post # 38:
IC rubbish.
Post # 43:
Switching to normal speak. Asks Nilp to elaborate his list.
Post # 49:
Casts suspicion onto Sixth for his remark about lynching her. Also brings about the first about the "Agan/Nilp/Form brawl".
Post # 99:
Just letting everyone know she's back. Half IC chatspeak.
Post # 107:
Answers a question from Agan about the Agan/Nilp/Form brawl statement. Looks at Eomer and Eonwe for casting a vote for Mith who cast a vote for sally who cast a vote for Sixth. Didn't find Mith suspicious, but didn't say whether or not she found Eonwe or Eomer suspicious either.
Post # 113:
Defends self and Agan/Nilp/Form brawl theory.
Post # 118:
Votes Eonwe. Stating he's the most suspicious. Partly self-preservation, but hadn't really cast much his way before this vote. Just a brief mention alongside Eomer.
Post # 129:
Asked if she could still talk after deadline.
Post # 136:
Makes a "ranger is unappreciated" statement.
Post # 147:
Again clarifying Agan/Nilp/Form brawl theory. Gives her reasons as to why. Clarifies cobbler role.
Post # 152:
Return to IC rubbish because she's bored.
Post # 160:

Maybe I'm prejudiced here, Aganzir, but your activity yesterDay gives me a nasty impression of shopping around for someone to lynch.

On the other hand, at least you didn't vote "at random" or giving IC reasons, unlike some people I could mention.

On Day 1 she had made a remark regarding people not saying why they suspected others and yet she does something like that here. Deliberately not pointing out those she disapproved of because of random/IC voting. Also puts some suspicions on Agan.
Post # 165:
Responds to Boro. Lists those random/IC voters. They consist of Eonwe, Form, Kath, and EW. Says Eonwe was just picking up on what someone else said (most probably Eomer). Calls Form pre-defensive because of his early vote and his defense of self. Says Kath didn't even try to explain her vote, which is true. Says the same of EW.
Post # 166:
Claims Agan was trying to get Sixth and herself lynched. It's pretty much a post responding to Agan or Aganwolf as she refers to her in one post.
Post # 174:
Responds to my vote, asks some questions I didn't have a chance to answer. Responds to something Rikae asked in regards to Eonwe.
Post # 175:
Brought up this is EW's third game. Though that doesn't necessarily have any bearing. Says he could be a newbie wolf, but suggests he may be the cobbler.
Post # 206:
Announces presence and that she's reading through the thread.
Post # 219:
Doesn't following my vote reasoning. But is willing to let Agan slide though she had suspected her quite heavily earlier in the Day. Believes EW is guilty.
Post # 277:
Asks about the deadline.
Post # 234:
Votes EW.
Post # 236:
Reminds us there are those who haven't voted.
Post # 243:

I prefer "loquacious" myself.

Final post.

So what can we gather from Nerwen's posts? She spoke often, saying little. Though she did cast suspicion on both lynching victims, she only voted for one (EW), but that was when it didn't look like that's where she was headed. She makes connection to many, but not strong enough to prove anything. Boro and Agan are the two she comes right out and calls wolves. Boro in jest, Agan in defense of herself.
Theories
1) Agan is a fellow wolf. Nerwen suspected her just enough so that if one was lynched the other may look good by comparison. If that makes sense. There's a connection on Nerwen's part, but not a strong one. It'd be a very bold move for both of them to suspect each so much and then vote elsewhere.
2) Agan is not a fellow wolf. Up to mischief maybe, but not a wolf. Nerwen calls her a wolf and seems to be inclined to vote for Agan. Yet when I put in my reasons and vote she backs off and votes for EW.
3) She had a wolf connection with Nilp or Form the remaining two in her Agan/Nilp/Form brawl theory. It would be a nice little connection to a fellow wolf to cast some theory on them on Day 1, but not really act on it.
4) Eonwe is a fellow wolf. She voted him Day 1 and found him suspicious Day 2. Like Agan she seemed more inclined to vote for Eonwe again than EW, but still she voted EW in the end.

Those were just some theories I thought up while reading Nerwen's posts. I think theories 2 and 3 are probably the most plausible. For the most part I think in her voting and actions Nerwen was trying to make certain people look bad to leave a trail toward an innocent in the case of her death. If that is the case, than I am inclined to believe Agan is innocent of wolvery. Cobbler, maybe, but based on Nerwen's posts and connection with Agan I'd say they were sloppy wolves indeed to play so boldly so early.

[Durelin]

Durelin makes some clever observations.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Form

I sincerely hope, given the sheer number of EW votes, that I won't be considered odd for thinking there's a wolf hidden in them somewhere--although I'm actually inclined to think otherwise, given how absolutely bandwaggonish they are. Indeed, after Rikae's vote, they are all essentially tacked on: they neither assisted in getting EW dead (save insofar as they didn't increase the Eönwë count), nor did they come with much in the way of justification.

But the point is there are nine votes for the EW. All other voters stand up from that crowd so it's the safest place for a wolf...

This is going to be a long one... but mind you: it's you speaking here, not me.

So on Day2 the following took place (from the early Day to the end).

Form suspects EW for the timing of his vote.

Shasta doubts the x'ing of posts by Eönwë and Eomer and suspects EW's vote.

Nilp votes Eönwë: "He remains the most suspicious for me" (earlier point on him aside from the voting on Day1: "Eönwë is quite prickly toDAY. *rubs chin*").

Kitanna suspects most Eonwe who "voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth (and the Elf-warrior for placing the third vote for Sixth).

Interestingly Nerwen says the following: "Eönwë does give some actual reason for his vote, but it looks like he's just picking up on things other people have said." And: "Neither does The Elf-warrior (explain his vote) – and he's pre-defensive. Not only that, unlike the others he's "randomly" casting the third vote on The Sixth Wizard, bringing him into the lead."

Kit suspects Eönwë for his vote coming out of the blue.

Rikae says: "The Elf-Warrior started ringing my alarm bells from his first post yesterDay, and his vote is one of the most evil looking I have ever seen." But makes a host of reservations after that. Doubts Shasta's implications of foul X'ing.

Form talks of the EW: "Elf-warrior's vote, as I have said, looks very bad. Not only did it solidly put Sixth in the lead--a lead he never lost, it was done for very vague reasons."

Nerwen: "It appears this is The Elf-Warrior's third game, and unless he was a wolf in his first, he has never been one. So... are his tactics too bold for a newbie-wolf? His vote looks extremely non-innocent, but perhaps he is the cobbler/spammer?"

Mith suspects EW's vote: "with such a wide field it was decisive and so anything but random."

Rikae says: "Eönwë's vote doesn't look particularly well-reasoned anyway." And: "If EW doesn't start speaking up in a helpful and non-evil manner very soon, I suggest we lynch him. He's contributing very little and what he does contribute exudes evil. "

Eomer thinks Eönwë might be the spammer.

Mith says: "Eonwe's post is odd but maybe too conspicuous for a wolf - it is very attention seeking to copy cat like that." Votes the EW for: "I don't know what he was doing with that vote but it wasn't random."

Eomer's analysis on all: "Eonwe: Seems like trouble, Elf Warrior: Almost certainly up to something. Not sure what."

Boro: I don't buy into Eonwe's vote for Mith as being a bandwagoning wolf.

The Ka defends Eönwë's integrity but votes Eönwë as well: "Only because out of my indecision, it’s the one I think know more about at the moment."

Aganzir analyses: "EW. I don't like him, either. But I'd like to point out that, if I remember correctly, the last time I played with him he was suspected for pretty much the same reasons and was innocent, so although suspicious, his behaviour isn't necessarily wolfish. But he definitely isn't of much help to the village, and if those are to be lynched, it should be done early." And: "Eönwë. I can't see anything that suspicious about him. Maybe because he's still relatively new to ww and somehow I believe he would be more apparent if a wolf."

EW votes Eönwë.

Agan commets EW's fast vote for Eönwë: "I am seriously tempted to vote for EW."

Shasta comments on the same issue: "Making this the second day in a row that Elf-Warrior's cast a vote for the person with the most votes with no explanation..."

And Eönwë about the EW: "Votes for me after two others have, and with no reason either."

Form says: "Eönwë has struck me as a rather annoying in his playing style, but this is more along the line of personalities than hard suspicions, and people rubbing each other the wrong way happens in WW. I have been accused of the same myself, and I think I should know better than to vote people off based on pure dislike." Votes the EW but talks merely of Mith and her connection to him... Then he adds: "Eönwë will not be much missed by me if he should go, but I am rather surprised that such attention has accrued to him. Overall, he strikes me as more non-useful than clearly malevolent."

Eomer votes the EW: "Agree with many others here. Elf-Warrior has to go. He is clearly up to no good"

Boro defends Eönwë: "I don't want to see Eonwe lynched" And adds: "Thus, I would rather vote for Elf-warrior than Eonwe. But, I caution against a counter-bandwagon here against EW."

Shasta comments: "I personally wouldn't mind seeing Eonwe gone, because he and Eomer still strike me as the most suspicious from yesterday. Elf-warrior isn't being actively unhelpful; maybe he's just having issues?"

Shasta votes for Eönwë for reasons "already stated".

Eönwë votes the EW.

Boro says: "Elf-Warrior's behavior surely is odd, but I agree that his behavior doesn't look like a hacker. It's not helpful, but the only reason I can see EW being a hacker is if they are sacrificing him."

Rikae votes for the EW: "Well, Elf Warrior seems to be making himself scarce. I say, let's get to the bottom of this"

Nerwolf says: "I can't really see any good reason not to vote The Elf-Warrior, after his latest effort"

Aganzir says: "I don't find it very likely EW is a wolf, but if he continues playing the way he does, he's only dead weight."

Boro: "in this case...There was Eonwe and Elf-warrior, of those two I would vote for Elf-warrior, but I would prefer to vote Nerwen"

Sally comes in: "Eon: Again, in the last game he was very quiet. But wasn't the last game his first? If I'm right about that, I'm going to ignore his change in talking level. On another level, people (okay, Form, etc.) have accused him of being unhelpful. I'm not saying I agree or not, but I think just because he's not terribly "useful" means that he's evil" And adds: "If we want to kill Eon, fine, but come up with a better reason than "he's not helpful.""

Nerwen votes the EW.

Sally votes the EW "of the three..."

Nogrod comments: "Both (Eönwë & EW) have played a bit too risky to be wolves but perhaps Eönwë more so. Although his outstanding activity might tell he's having a lupine role and he wishes to play a lot..."

Boro votes for the EW.

Agan votes for the EW: "Well not that it really matters anymore"


A few thoughts to follow...

[Nogrod]

Looking at the above list from yesterDay and adding a few other general feelings I'd say the following.

Suspicious:
Nilp
The Ka
Eönwë


Innocentish:
Aganzir
Boro
Sally
Shasta


Baffled about:
Mith
Eomer
Form
Kitanna
Dury

Although it need to be remembered that someone has changed sides last Night and these are only feelings from yesterDay.

I'm off to have fun with Lommy & Greenie and prepare some dinner to us. I*ll be back later.

[Eönwë]

Kath? But agree with what most people have said- no trails.

Ok, but now it means that we have an extra wolf. One that wasn't there before. I don't think they'll be easy to find, but we shouldn't abandon hope altogether.

To me, the person with the biggest change over last night was Shasta. Until today he was very quiet, or at least very laid back and even though he posted, he didn't really say much. Today, he seemed much more lively and engaging in conversation. But maybe this is just a matter of time restraints (like my non-activity today before now). We'll just have to see if it develops into something.

Now, off to analyse some posts.... And catch up on what I've missed.

[Eönwë]

Wow, this is a quiet day...

[Durelin]

Well it took me absolutely forever to go back and read through things. And I am extremely clueless.

I am going to assume for now that Rikae, Kitanna, Aganzir, and Boro are innocent, because they were at least sorta fairly consistently after Nerwen (Agan on Day 1 and 2, Boro on Day 2) or actually voted for her. Rikae and Kitanna voted for her on Day 1. There's really no reason for any wolf-on-wolf, as early as Kitanna voted especially, and Rikae's vote tied Nerwen with everyone else 'in the lead'. So Rikae is the most innocent at this point. Boro is the least innocent seeming.

On the other hand, Boro's and Agan's campaigns against Nerwen seem so neat, and interestingly these seemed to be their top suspects:

The Sixth, EW, and Nerwen. Two of the three end up lynched. The one that doesn't is a wolf. They were more consistently after her than anyone, I think, but they didn't vote for her either Day. Yes, there's that whole not throwing your vote away thing, but... Boro's "Nerwen, I'll be arguing for you tomorrow" seems very conveniently places.

Anyway, my new handy-dandy list of the others (I hope all), in no particular order:
Eomer
Nilp
Shasta
Mith
Sally
Nogrod
Eonwe
Ka
Formendacil

Eonwe sorta-kinda went after Nerwen. He started in his very first post on Day 1 by saying that she wasn't doing anything useful, just posting randomly. But then he picks up on her Agan/Nilp/Form thing for a bit. Then he votes for Mith. On Day 2 Nerwen goes after him just a little bit and he defends himself. Right now I think I'm gonna add him to my for-now-assumed-probably-innocent list that I talked about above.

Nogrod and Eomer fall under the sorta defended Nerwen but not really category. I could fall under this, too, because of what I said on Day 1 about her being an easy wolf target, but they have that going on on Day 2, too. (Yes, I wasn't there, so who knows about me!) Of those two, Nogrod I think was more obvious about it.

Nilp...after his back and forth thing on Day 1, he seemed to try and remain pretty neutral about Nerwen. He has made sure to be ciritcal of the voting and the lynch targets, but I have been a bit, too. I thought of Nerwen as the easy lynch target on Day 1, too, because...well, seriously, the only reason she got attention at that point was because of her role.

Sally is an example of maintaining the middle ground on Nerwen. Talking about her as suspicious looking, but not trying to give any good reasons (holding onto simple ones like, "wow, she's posting a lot!").

Shasta made sure to talk about Nerwen, but kept what he said as neutral observation, and put her on a "Innocent" list with Mith. And then there's his interacting with her that is pure IC.

Mith, Ka, and Formendacil all seemed to have avoided talking about Nerwen at all, really. Form mocked her chat-speak and interacted with her about the whole ranger thing, and agreed with her on something she said about EW. On Day 1 Ka jokes we should keep her around because she's amusing. And also on Day 1 Mith simple mentions that "oh, Nerwen's very noisy," but follows that up with "but quiet people are scary too and there are lots of them!" She practically picks up Nog's anti-submarine campaign.

Speaking of which...based on the wolf kills, I'd say we must have a Nogwolf...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Sorry Mith, you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Story of my life in so many ways.... but Eomer I think (and with a only too acute sense of irony) that you may be taking this too personally. You may have to consider that the game isn't revolving around you.

I don't know why people are suprised about Kath being killed. She made few posts but she is a very good player, the wolves may have thought it worth getting her out of the way before she could get more active.

Also if she was the ranger save then the wolves, as Nilp points out, having been foiled may have wanted a certain kill. Eomer's kill list doesn't factor in our very talented ranger. I can't remember a game where a ranger got it right first time. And in this game there was even a possibility that Kath was the ranger.

I hope to be around a bit longer but real life factors are conspiring against me - see admin thread.

[Mithalwen]

Oh I see, yet another day when Mith rambles away to herself like the crazywoman she is and then no doubt you all emerge the second I am gone. Well I shall give it about half an hour and then shall ramble a bit more, vote and leave ...

[Durelin]

Alright, some conclusions from my ramblings:

Vaguely in order of suspicion (vaguely because I am incredibly indecisive):

Shasta
Mith
Sally
Eomer
Nogrod

Aganzir makes good points about Nilp I guess, but I'm just not feeling it.

I really like Shasta right now, with his arguing of principles and such, which is why I think he might well be a wolf.

Mith and Sally feel slippery. It seems like they're trying to be...nice.

Eomer bothers me. He's channeling phantom-ness.

It just seems so right for Nogrod to be a wolf right now.

Sally - Eonwe seems cheesy...he seems to me like he's trying too hard to be surprised at things, to be interested in things, to look like he's doing something...you know, bad acting.

[satansaloser2005]

Quick check-in post. Sorry, can't stay (only have about two minutes) but I'm letting you know that I WILL be back at the end of the Day to vote. And I mean the end. (Good thing the Downs clock is slow though.) See you all then.


P.S. Ah. Gotcha, Durelin. Thought that might have been what you meant, but wasn't sure. Okay, gotta rush now. G'bye.

[Mithalwen]

Me, try to be nice? Lol - my heart is usually firmly on my sleeve and I can't believe that I can be tramsmitting much other than grumpiness and a drop of sarcasm.

Can someone explain this principle of Noggie's. I am not sure I can see the moral highground of voting for Kit when it didn't matter. I am not sure what is the point of principles only invoked when they are irrelevant, it doesn't inspire a great deal of faith in the courage of his convictions.

If I give up trying to sort through the posts (and time is against me) I may well may well vote for him on the principle that I am getting heartily fed up with him acting as some kind of cyber sheep-dog, voting literally at at the last minute, expecting everyone else to vote before him, then wringing his hands in moral outrage when they fail to do what he wants. Especially as when he has done it in other games he has played he has been a wolf. Just seems like such a major back covering exercise as if he is terrified a vote may incriminate him in some way - manipulative without risking the exposure of taking a lead.

I will have another think because Form was right that personal irritation may be a dangerous guide... and now I have that fully out of my system .. I may be able to see clearer ... or not...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

A few words before voting:

• Love the SAVE, Durelin.
  
  
• Made you look, implies sally's sig.
  
  
• Shasta has an avatar now!
  
  
• Speaking of Shasta, the Shasta/Eomer show feels a bit staged to me. Hmmm . . .
  
  
• Enedwaith, cuz:

  I'm not constructing a logical argument to demonstrate my innocence. All I'm saying is that if I was a wolf, I'd be gentler in my public dealings. I am not trying to convince you -- that would be futile -- but perhaps some other folk in the village remember me as a colder, more dismissive wolf, rather than the loud, fight-seeking chap I'm showing myself to be here today. It's not general; it's particular to me. Frankly, I don't care if anyone buys it; I'm not hiding my thoughts, and it's way less pressure to play as an innocent. (Eomer)

  Actually, the best I can remember of your wolvish behaviour is attacking spawn, calling her a liar, me getting vengeance, and a bloody Saucepan victory. So, sorry, you can't really tell us how you'd act as a Wolf.
  
  
• Judging from Nerwen's voting, I'd say Eönwë's innocent, too. Gah.

Augh, my brain is still dead and dry. I find no-one really suspicious, and I'm tempted just to vote for the least-suspicious-seeming person cos I feel I've been barking up the wrong trees . . .

All I can say is I don't buy assuming people innocent just because they thought Nerwen suspicious . . . you can say all you want about someone, but it all comes down to voting, whether you really want the person you suspect lynched or not. Boromir and Aganzir, as I've said before, did not follow through their suspicion by voting.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That was ages ago, Nilp. In the last 42000 times I've been a wolf I've been far calmer.

What's with Nilp waking up so early to be around at deadline, though? I don't remember seeing that before. Could the stakes be too high for sleep, dear cousin?

I think Mith has a good point about Nogrod. I'm already wary of him so the pieces certainly fit. I'm thinking Nogrod, Nilp and Shasta, two of those as the original wolf.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I play to win now, cuz, no longer merely to have fun. Although getting votes is still quite a rush . . .

Besides, I'm already awake trying to cudgel my mind into churning a thousand words in German for a paper on Enlightenment and the Philippines.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Shasta seems utterly against Eomer on his assurance of EW's guilt based upon what to me looks like the above theory. I know yesterday at least Rikae was following the same sort thing, calling EW "dead weight" at one point. So, why attack Eomer about it, Shasta?

Why Eomer and not Rikae? Because due to something someone else (I think it was actually you, Kitanna!) said, Rikae seems innocent to me based on her first-day Nerwen vote. Part of it, though, is that I've been suspicious of Eomer since Day 1 and this just adds fuel to the fire.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

To me, the person with the biggest change over last night was Shasta. Until today he was very quiet, or at least very laid back and even though he posted, he didn't really say much. Today, he seemed much more lively and engaging in conversation. But maybe this is just a matter of time restraints (like my non-activity today before now). We'll just have to see if it develops into something.

Yes... During the extended Night 3, I was forced to sell my car. Now that I'm stuck at home with no place to go and nothing to do, I may as well sit here at the computer and post for all I'm worth.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I really like Shasta right now, with his arguing of principles and such, which is why I think he might well be a wolf.

Dury! How could you!

Originally Posted by Mith

I may well may well vote for him on the principle that I am getting heartily fed up with him acting as some kind of cyber sheep-dog, voting literally at at the last minute, expecting everyone else to vote before him, then wringing his hands in moral outrage when they fail to do what he wants. Especially as when he has done it in other games he has played he has been a wolf. Just seems like such a major back covering exercise as if he is terrified a vote may incriminate him in some way - manipulative without risking the exposure of taking a lead.

And I do like this point of Mith's. I may just go back and take a good look at our dear wannabe-moderator.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Shasta has an avatar now!

Yay, someone noticed! You like it?

Edit: X'd with Eomer and Nilp. Boy, someone's suspicions sure have changed, haven't they?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Besides, if you want high stakes, I could have done this during the previous (DW) game . . . might have won it, too, I fancy, had I been around that DAY.

Erenor my mother does make sense about Nogrod, although I don't remember playing with him to know what his normal playing style is. I may have played in a game where he was in, too, but . . . not that you're forgettable or anything, sir Noggie. I'm just forgetful, perhaps.

My radar is really off right now, rargh. Ah well, we still do have our Moderators . . . I do hope our Seer has a proper sense of revelation timing, though . . . she might go jump out after having revealed just one Hacker, only to realise in the end that the others are rather too cunning at blending in.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Mith simple mentions that "oh, Nerwen's very noisy," but follows that up with "but quiet people are scary too and there are lots of them!"

what I actually said was I found Nerwen annoying but I don't know if that is just the first day banter or something more sinister. It is such a change from her usual calm, almost calculating style that I find it hard to judge. Maybe she is just having fun.

Dury - I appreciate you were summarising but I think this borders on misrepresentation, which makes me uneasy, however the "Save" was so brilliant that I shall leave it for now, though it can also be risky to disregard things because their writers amuse (I never wanted to vote for Ang in the teeth of the evidence because his posts were so delightful.

However I have skimmed again and it strikes me that not only is Nogrod being quietly amnipulative but he is being quiet.... normally you can't look away for a moment without there being more analysis. This time ( and I don't regard it as a bad thing as such) there are many others who are much more active in the discussion. Hard as it is to believe but Nogrod seems to be flying under the radar. Is that because in the classic scenario, Nerwen was a very loud wolf indeed?

Well I seldom regret voting for him and often regret not following through when I do suspect him.

++Nogrod

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Edit: X'd with Eomer and Nilp. Boy, someone's suspicions sure have changed, haven't they?

Is this me, you're talking about? Could it be that things changed after we found a wolf?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Is this me, you're talking about? Could it be that things changed after we found a wolf?

I was talking about your out-of-the-blue suspicion of Nilp.

[Durelin]

Ah, I missed that statement about Nerwen, Mith, which was in the post previous to the one I was paraphrasing (#63 was the one I talked about).

Too bad Shasta and Eomer can't just duel and get a few things out of the way.

(Edited because I figured I should really mention who my first statement was directed to!)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Not exactly out of the blue, Shasta, he's been suspecting me since DAY 2.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Speaking of which...based on the wolf kills, I'd say we must have a Nogwolf...

A wolf kill... you mean? Yes I'm totally terrified by Kath to be sure...

Originally Posted by Dury

Mith, Ka, and Formendacil all seemed to have avoided talking about Nerwen at all, really.

Good work! I will keep this in mind.

Originally Posted by Mith

Can someone explain this principle of Noggie's. I am not sure I can see the moral highground of voting for Kit when it didn't matter.
...
I may well may well vote for him on the principle that I am getting heartily fed up with him acting as some kind of cyber sheep-dog, voting literally at at the last minute, expecting everyone else to vote before him, then wringing his hands in moral outrage when they fail to do what he wants. Especially as when he has done it in other games he has played he has been a wolf. Just seems like such a major back covering exercise as if he is terrified a vote may incriminate him in some way - manipulative without risking the exposure of taking a lead.

First of all I always vote late if I just have a chance. I want to influence the game with my vote and with no retractions you need to vote late then. Some Days it is crucial how the last votes go, some Days it doesn't matter the slightest as all the decisions have been done already. But that's not something one can predict or control as it depends on how others vote. YesterDay there was nothing to do in the end, on Day1 there was a situation where it could have turned anyway and thence it was vital (even if I did the wrong decision back then).

Go back to any of the games I've played and see for yourself; I always vote late if possible. So the idea that I'd be doing it only when I'm a baddie is downright wrong and you Mith know it (you were wolf once alone with me at the DL and you remember that - I was the innocent who had no heart to get you lynched even if I should have done it). Now why you try to bring that kind of misinterpretation up m'dear?

Secondly: it seems you're a bit more touchy than normal as you seem to interpret me parading a moral highground when I don't think I've done that. Yes I said - already yesterDay, among Boro and Agan - that our choises were bad ones. But has your lycanthrope soul started to feel jealous of us who can say it with a clear conscience that we disliked the decisions others made? I mean a wolf needs to go with the flow or come up with some faulty reasons of her own...

And anyhow. As you haven't said you're innocent I'm leaning towards thinking you're one of the wolves. You know having a reputation of never lying about these things is all fine and dandy as long as you're innocent (although it spoils part of the game) but if you now happen to be a wolf then you'll see that advance bouncing you back.

So I'm waiting for your next post...

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts... including Mith's vote...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Not exactly out of the blue, Shasta, he's been suspecting me since DAY 2.

Trying to get on my good side?

Fair comeback, Nogrod. Shasta and I are both tired so maybe we'll get the popcorn out and watch two others go at it.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

You have a good side, Eomer? That's a surprise!

Well, sorry to disappoint you chappies, but Mummie Mith has left the building, so to speak.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Well, sorry to disappoint you chappies, but Mummie Mith has left the building, so to speak.

Yeah, I sadly realised that after pushing the send -button...

But I've played with her enough to say that she is one of the most considerate players there is and now she's pretending something else. Maybe she's the cobbler, maybe a wolf, who knows, but she's not innocent.

I need to look at some other issues as well before the dealine - and Lommy and Greenie wait for me to join the planning of our RPG later this summer...

[Kitanna]

So I've been poking around at those who voted for Eonwe and for Eonwe himself. Someone (Form I believe) took a look at EW voters and since Eonwe was next in line with the highest vote count I figure it may be prudent to examine them as well.

The following is based on Day 2 posts. It would be ideal if I could looked at Day 1 as well, but I may not have the time or attention span to dedicate to that.
Nilp:
His first post of the day pretty much recapped Day 1's events. He voiced mild suspicions on Eonwe, Eomer, Rikae, and to some degree Nogrod.
His second post defends Kath's random vote as not being wolf-on-wolf.
The next posts highlights what he thinks of some villagers.
He voted for Eonwe saying he was the most suspicious and he had done nothing to assuage his suspicions.

Ka:
Her first post was little more than an "I'm here" statement.
Her next post she talks about trying to avoid a Agan/Form/Nilp bandwagon and that was behind on the posts when she had voted. States she felt Agan had forced herself to look indecisivel with her vote. Mostly talked about wanting to avoid certain bandwagons from Day 1.
The next post she half defends Eonwe's voting placement as a simple cross post. She states being unsure about Mith as well Sally. She half suspects Agan, looks most probably on past experiences than anything else. Doesn't really hold any suspicions of Nilp unsure about Boro and Form. Voted for Eonwe out of indecision.

Elf-Warrior:
First post clarified gender.
Next voted for Eonwe with no time to explain.

Shasta:
First post of the day was mostly stating he was there.
Next post rates the village as such:

Suspicious: Eomer, Eonwe

Sort-Of Suspicious: Kath, Sally, Elf-warrior

Mediocre: Everyone not mentioned above or below this line -----------------------

Not-So Suspicious: Nogrod

Not Suspicious: Mith, Nerwen

Does some Nerwen translation next. Responds to a Nilp query and answers a question I had posed about wolf-on-wolf voting.
Makes a voting list and points out "this the second day in a row that Elf-Warrior's cast a vote for the person with the most votes with no explanation..."
Next is a deadline question.
Says Eonwe and Eomer look the most suspicions and says he wouldn't mind seeing Eonwe gone.
The next posts are answering rule questions and translation.
Finally a vote for Eonwe.

Eonwe

What? She started a bandwagon against an innocent!

In reference to Kath starting a bandwagon against Eonwe and Nilp's response to Kath doing wolf-on-wolf.
Next post is a defense of his cross posting with Eomer on voting for Mith.

You're right.In fact, it may have been Nilp that started that, then Nerwen joined in, making it the 3rd vote, which I think could (And maybe should) be classified as a bandwaggon.

Backtracks there about Kath starting a bandwagon. He had stated maybe Kath hadn't started it on purpose, but once called out by Eomer that it doesn't necessarily equal a bandwagon on the first vote he backs off.
The next two posts are fairly unhelpful. He responds to one of Nerwen's queries about conspiracy theories, stating it was a thrown away theory he made IC. Though I'm a bit confused as to what theory the were talking about.
Next he recaps the votes, somewhat saddened Nilp has voted for him.

To correct my last, post, I will say that maybe a bandwaggon is forming, and against me!

Most suspicious person on my list:
The Elf-Warrior

Votes for me after two others have, and with no reason either. Then again, THE Ka seemed like she didn't think I was guilty, but then voted me.



Elf-Warrior, if you don't sayy someting to convinve me otherwise in the next 30 minutes, I think I might have to vote you.

A vote for EW would certainly have been a self-preservation vote. But what made EW the most suspicious? Eonwe could have picked Agan to vote for who, like EW, had one vote.
Next he votes EW. At this point Eonwe led the votes as the lynch candidate by one vote. His vote for EW was most probably self-preservation.
Recaps the votes again a bit later.
The next is nothing more than verifying this was EW's second game.

What does this teach us? That I need to not be lazy and go back to Day 1 to dig deeper. I, however, probably won't. I admit to my own laziness and if I do that I may actually miss the vote as I dig deeper for answers that may not even be there anymore (given the addition of a new hacker and all).

But as far as yesterday is concerned Ka and EW seemed to vote fairly randomly. Nilp suspected Eonwe from the first post of the day. Shasta is much the same stating Eonwe as one of his most suspicious early on. Ka may be up to mischief voting on indecision for someone who had already garnered one vote. I'm unsure what to think about Shasta and Nilp.

And as for Eonwe. He was somewhat opposed with his own bandwagon from Day 1. And he voted most likely to save his skin on Day 2. Though why he picked EW is a bit of a mystery to me. I might have missed something important... He's quick to jump to his own defense over even the most minor of attacks.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Why Eomer and not Rikae? Because due to something someone else (I think it was actually you, Kitanna!) said, Rikae seems innocent to me based on her first-day Nerwen vote. Part of it, though, is that I've been suspicious of Eomer since Day 1 and this just adds fuel to the fire.

Fair enough. I was curious as to why Eomer jumped out at you over the others who voted for EW.

I'm a bit baffled as what to do.
I think Eonwe is up to no good.
I haven't completely dropped my suspicions of Agan, but I'm leaning more on cobbler rather than hacker due to what we've learned about Nerwen.
As far as Shasta and Eomer are concerned, did they stage it? Maybe. If not Eomer looks a bit worse to me. I base that on our colorful WW history, as he put it. I have seen many wolfish faces to Eomer and his behavior today raises my eyebrow, though I don't know how inclined to vote for him I am.
Ka and Nilp remains a mystery to me.
Those are the five who I've looked at the closest today. I'll probably dig around some more and try to uncover any outstanding clues to go off of. But chances are good I will vote for Eonwe. He has jumped out the most to me thus far.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nog

A wolf kill... you mean? Yes I'm totally terrified by Kath to be sure...

Oh bother. I keep thinking of McCaber as a wolf kill. I know he wasn't but I just keep seeing his name and thinking that. Blah.

What I was thinking was that you'd be one to take down the quiet ones.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nilp’s post 111. Says Nerwen is ‘’genuine in her eagerness to help this fair village’’. Yeah.

Nilp 134. Use of elipses seems to grudgingly accept that Kitanna was warranted voting for Nerwen. Rikae is not so warranted, though.

Shasta 144. Nerwen is ‘’not suspicious’’.

Nilp 156. Thinks Shasta is helpful and wants to keep him around. The only villager who gets this respect.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are a couple of other, piecemeal reasons why they are suspicious to me, but these relate to Nerwen, our known wolf, and are worth quantifying. The pair o' them look bad to me.

[Rikae]

I'm sorry, everybody - RL things have stolen all my time and mental energy today. I'm going to vote based purely on a hunch:

++Formendacil

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm sorry, everybody - RL things have stolen all my time and mental energy today. I'm going to vote based purely on a hunch:

++Formendacil

GASP. WE MUST VOTE HER FOR BEING UNHELPFUL!

plusplusRikae

.....

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I have to go now, it's 5:30am here already and I still have to endure two or so hours of commute to school, where my first class shall commence at 8:30.

I really don't know who to vote, so instead of stabbing in the dark, I shall pull a Kath and abstain from voting toDAY.

Rest assured, if you still want me, I'd be more helpful, cerebral, analytical, whatever you want, tomorrow.

Or maybe I'll help you get me lynched? Nah, you're perfectly capable of doing that on your own.

++[null vote]

PS. Yes, Eomer, I'd be that obvious talking to a fellow Hacker. *coughcoughprevioustwogames*