Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Holbytlass]

1. Diamond-->SpM (SpM 1)
2. Rune-->tgwbs (SpM 1, tgwbs 1)
3. mormegil-->Firefoot (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Firefoot-->Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1)
5. Taliesin-->Glirdan (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1)
6. Durelin-->Rune (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1)
7. SpM-->Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1)
8. Glirdan-->morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot 1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 1)
9. tgwbs-->morm (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 1, morm 2)
10. Caran-->Holby (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 1, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 2, morm 2)
11. Holby-->Durelin (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 1, Holby 2, morm 2)
12. Lalaith-->Rune (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 2, Holby 2, morm 2)
13.Anguirel-->Kath (SpM 1, tgwbs 1, Firefoot1, Durelin 2, Glirdan 1, Rune 2, Holby 2, morm 2, kath 1)

[Diamond18]

I'm back! I didn't think I would be, but I woke up early. Ish.

Anyway, I just wanted to note that I find it interesting that SpM and Morm are the only ones who did not seem to be willing to take my post at face value. I went from Innocent on Morm's list to possibly guilty after I made that post. SpM doesn't swerve from suspecting me. This might not necessarily mean anything, but one of my goals when I made that post was to set a little Wolf Bait. I figured the people most likely to want to see it as guilty would be wolves sniffing out an easy target. I said that I wouldn't be around much, which means I wouldn't be able to defend myself much or make the village as a whole think of me as helpful (and therefore want to save me if I get into troube). So, I'd be easy to bandwaggon against.

When innocent, I have seen SpM strongly caution against suspecting people for odd behavior, pointing out that the wolves are often them that feel most fair. Yet, in this game, I haven't seen that and I have seen him "suspecting" for odd behavior.

morm old chap, can you consider for a moment that the following is not a stable acid test for a wolf-

Does he accuse morm?

If Yes, wolf. If No, not.

It's admittedly a simple and deliciously elegant equation, but it doesn't always add up...

I suppose this caution could apply to me as well... but, I did write my earlier post with a conscious idea to make it a "oh wolves, you know you want to scapegoat me" sort of post and so I came back looking for takers. Disregard if you find this test to be overly faulty.

[Anguirel]

Gramercy Holby. Three more votes to cast and everything to be decided. In the name of Jesu Christ and his servant the King of Scots, I pray that justice may yet be done this day...

[Gurthang]

Well, I've read through Glirdan's post, which leaves me very little time to decide.

What I found is not much suspicious. His analysis' seemed rational to me, and I actually agreed with quite a few of his points. Some did seem weird, though, for instance pointing at Diamond for being the first to post. I also really don't like that last sentence about Saucepan Man. I don't know why, or even how exactly it would work, but it seems way too much like he's setting up for something. And, yes, I do think Glirdan would be that obvious.

And now Holby's looking a little better. Her lack of care for her own safety puts her in a better light, but that could just be in response to my suspicions of her for that reason.

Oh! I'm gonna wait just a little longer before voting. It will be for either Holby, Guy, or Glirdan, but I just don't know which.

[Diamond18]

I know, but that's how Saucie always is. Everyone tends to trust him, and a few people just want to get rid of him because he's scary because people want to trust him. But I'm not thinking of lynching him right now. Why? Because of the Jenny thing. Why would he have brought the Hunter thing up if he (as a wolf) was planning to get her that night? He would've left it unspoken, I imagine, unless he was being bold. Possible. But right now, I doubt it.

Actually, that seems very wolfish to me. By broadcasting the possibility, he brought it to the attention of everyone. On purpose. A wolf would do this so that he can later say "Oops, I guess I gave it away to the wolves and that's why they killed her."

[Kath]

Oh no, 4 minutes left and I come back to this tie, and I think none of those up for lynching particularly guilty looking.

Durelin, morm, Holby, Rune.

Holby I can't vote for. To me she has been playing her usual style, and as she's almost always innocent that bodes well.

The other three I just don't know.

[mormegil]

Okay, I may die and I humbly request that all innocents look at the following very closely

Firefoot
Gurthang
Rune
TGWBS
among others

Don't forget about SpM. I think he's innocent but if alive too long don't give him the benefit of the doubt. Scrutinize everything.

Anguriel seems innocent enough to me now.

[Kath]

Argh!

++ MORM

He's the only one I had any suspicion over all day. It seems I have to break this tie, and I have to have some reasoning.

[Gurthang]

I almost want to wait longer; Cailin said she might be late, but I don't want to take the chance.

++Holbytlass

We need to break this tie, and Holby is the only one who I suspect that is among the those who are tied. May you be a wolf.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Gurthang:

it seems that a wolf rather than an innocent would be worried about surviving.

My dears, you have forgotten the seer would want to do that!!
The most dangerous place is in the lockjaws of The SaucepanMan. Friend or foe you have finally beaten me down.

Me, Taliesin, Findeasea and Caranlodien are innocent!

[Findëasëa]

Hmm, I really don’t think that Durelin or Morm is guilty. I have played with both of them before and their actions in this game have been consistant as far as I can tell. I have never played with Holby before so I am not sure how she would act, but I am not really suspicious of her either. Since I have not had time to go over all of the posts today, I am basing my vote off of impressions that I had of people on Day 2.

++Rune

For reasoning behind this vote please look at post #166. This is the best I can do for now.

[the guy who be short]

Foolish, Holbytlass! You would have survived this day - morm got more votes first.

But it is done. Thank you none the less.

[Cailín]

It is over.

Please stop talking.

[the guy who be short]

Just for the record, I am in favour of a novus republic, headed by the three innocent lasses. Best get that in the open right now.

One could still be a lover, but the other two will outnumber her. It is a risk I am willing to take.

And, frankly, I don't care what the rest of you think. I know it's a good idea.

[Cailín]

The shock of losing two allies instead of one the previous Night weighed heavily on the ship.

"Everything must justify its existence before the judgment seat of Reason, or give up existence”, stated Friedrich Engels.

"*hic*," said Glirdan, puzzled.

"It is my brilliant theory of the Day." Engels drew himself up proudly.

"Who are you, anyway?" inquired Gurthang. "Don't think I noticed you aboard before."

"Reason?" asked Lalaith in a huff. "Empiricism is the only true way, my friends."

"Huh?" said Rune.

"I am feeling pretty suicidal…" commented Weslamond. "Aye, but I fear Sir Horatio should leave the ship first."

"You are all wrong," said Mormegil. "I know exactly who the wolves are and you'd best listen to me or else everything will be wrong, wrong, wrong."

"Well?" asked Durelin.

"It is Firefoot, obviously," said Mormegil.

"Ha!" said Firefoot. "My dog thinks you, sir, are actually a pirate."

"Portugal - Holland was the worst match ever!" stated Sir Horatio suddenly.

All passengers looked up in surprise and started eyeing Sir Horatio suspiciously.

"Wha…?" asked Kath.

"Apologies," stumbled Sir Horatio. "No idea what made me say that. The lengthy exposure to the sun and wind must have made me slightly delusional."

"You see!" said Taliesin triumphantly. "Never trust a rear-admiral with a roaring voice and a silly name."

"Wrong again," said Mormegil. "Sir Horatio Potboiler is no wolf, oh no. Though I may be wrong."

In the end, the passengers decided that they could not bear hearing Mormegil correct them one more time and decided that such insistent pessimism could only stem from a decidedly wolvish nature. With collective effort, to the obvious satisfaction of Friedrich Engels, the passengers hoisted the man up the plank.

"There is obviously a fault in the construction of this ship," continued Mormegil his nit-picking as he stood there. "You see, this plank is completely rotten. If I'd put my foot here, like this…"

He demonstrated, shifting all his weight to his left foot. With a reluctant squeak, the plank cracked and Mormegil lost his balance and tumbled into the ocean.

"You see," he said, struggling to keep his head above the water. "It will break."

"Oh, be silent already," said Caranlondien, quite annoyed.

"Just wait," yelled Mormegil to the passengers still observing him from the deck.

And it happened. With a final snap, the plank broke straight through the middle. Half of the now ex-plank came falling down and hit the troubled Mormegil right on the head. He died instantly, but with a smug smile gracing his face. A human face. Mormegil had been another Ordinary Passenger.

--

Captain Cailín's Log

Cheese? I need cheese!

Signed,

Rune, Son of Bjarne



~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Holbytlass -- whale hunter
Findëasëa -- Occupational health and safety specialist
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Diamond18 -- Weslamond, the Dread Pirate Roberta's protégé
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Rune Son of Bjarne -- crazy slave, with an obsession for cheese
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Glirdan -- drunken porter
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)


Night 4 has now started. I need a name from the Wolves and one from the Seer. Nogrod has happily returned so he shall expect PMs as well. Sleep tight. Sorry for the delay re: yesterday's narration. It will be up tomorrow.

[Cailín]

After all her fellow passengers had fallen asleep, Holbytlass walked up to the railing and stared into the invisible waves. She'd not be able to sleep tonight, despite her growing weariness and the fact that it was the darkest night she'd ever seen. It was no night to see anything.

She did hear something.

In the vague distance, a lonely cry sounded, melodious and sweet. Could it be a whale? Holbytlass shook her head. She was always imagining things. Though some things were not quite so imagined as others. With a sigh of foreboding, she whispered a name in the dark. Then she waited.

The moon rose over a pair less likely to hear a lonely sound. Unaware that someone was still up and watching, they danced to their own, private tune. There was something comforting about knowing that - no matter how the tides would turn - they would always come out as winners. Isn't love said to conquer all?

As the footsteps got louder and more confident, Holbytlass woke up from her reverie, forgetting the name she had whispered to the unknown. Slowly, she walked in the direction of the sound, hoping to solve the mystery before the wolves came to settle the score. In the fickle light of the moon, she saw flashes of a pair dancing between the sleeping bodies of the other passengers, careless in their movements, apparently only avoiding a misstep by chance, luck even. She chased them over the ship, her human, worldly steps sharply contrasting with the casual grace of the couple. She thought she heard a boy laughing, or was it a woman? The rhythm increased as the wolf and the lover were now swirling to a distant chorus of violins, almost painful to the ears in its perfection. Holbytlass started to run, forgetting about undercover, desperate to catch them in the act.

They seemed to retreat in the now deserted Captain's cabin. Holbytlass followed them, determined.

As she entered, she found the cabin empty. Disappointed and tense, she sighed once more. She turned around, shaking, and found herself face to face with the four wolves who had haunted her dreams.

"We know you now," snarled the largest.

With a vengeful howl, the wolves fell upon Holbytlass, taking the light out of her eyes forever.

At dawn, it was Firefoot who found Holbytlass. She was lying spread-eagled on the Captain's bed, her empty sockets staring into the distance. The names on her lips would never be uttered.

--

Captain Cailín's Log

A Night filled with promise. The Seer is dead. We live.

Signed,

The Lovers




~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Findëasëa -- Occupational health and safety specialist
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Diamond18 -- Weslamond, the Dread Pirate Roberta's protégé
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Rune Son of Bjarne -- crazy slave, with an obsession for cheese
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Glirdan -- drunken porter
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)

Day 4 has now started. Passengers, you may start discussing. Good luck.

[Anguirel]

Well, buckoes, same drill as yesterday, really. Death not unexpected, but votes from yesterday extremely interesting. Analyse them, why don't you, and I'll help in the morning when I'm more coherent. Also I need one of those nice Firefoot TM voting order bulletins to really set to work.

We have a lot of information to work with. In my view, morm's lynching was idiocy. But...later. Hope to return to see lots of clear reasoning and theories to bounce off.

[Taliesin]

Holby, thanks for the helpful info, I'm sorry to see you go but it was expected ofcourse.

I really didn't see any reason why Mormegil was lynched, I must've missed something, someone care to enlighten me on this subject?

The ones who voted for Holby:

Saucepan Man
Gurthang
Caranlondien ( known innocent )

I suggest we take a good look at Gurthang aswell. And Holby insisted we lynch Saucepan Man, or did she merely hint he's not to be trusted, I'm not sure how to interpret that message.

That's makes my suspect list

Saucepan Man
Gurthang
Glirdan

[Firefoot]

Our village seems to be suffering from Gifted mistakes...

With half the original village proven innocent in one way or another (of course, Findeasea, Caran, and Taliesin could theoretically be the villager Lover - in which case, the wolves will probably get him/her sometime in the next couple nights), maybe we should finally be able to get somewhere.

Per Ang's request:

Sauce – 1 (Diamond 1)
TGWBS – 1 (Rune 2)
Firefoot – 1 (Morm 3)
Durelin – 2 (Firefoot 4, Holby 11)
Glirdan – 1 (Taliesin 5)
Rune – 3 (Durelin 6, Lalaith 12, Findeasea 16)
Holby – 3 (Sauce 7, Caran 10, Gurthang 15)
Morm – 3 (Glirdan 8, TGWBS 9, Kath 14)
Kath – 1 (Ang 13)

I'm sort of coming to the conclusion that we might not have very bold wolves; there just aren't many opportunities for wolf-on-wolf votes. The only possibilities are:

Day 1:
Glirdan (4th voter) for Kath
Gurthang (18th voter) for Diamond

Day 2:
Firefoot (15th voter) for Lalaith

Day 3:
Diamond (1st voter) for Sauce
Rune (2nd voter) for TGWBS
Firefoot (4th voter) for Durelin
Durelin (6th voter) for Rune
Lalaith (12th voter) for Rune
Ang (13th voter) for Kath

Comments:
Day 1:
Either of these I could see as theoretically possible. Although Glirdan's vote would have been rather bold, Kath was not gathering much support for voting that Day, as I recall, and Nilp and Eomer both were. Gurthang's vote for Diamond certainly could be, but it's almost too obvious. It doesn't seem like a good place for a wolf-on-wolf vote - 18th position, and for someone who doesn't have any votes yet.

Day 2:
Well, I know I'm innocent, but you all don't... I'll let you decide how wolvish my vote is. This seems like a rather weird strategy to play by, though, to me anyway. *shrugs*

Day 3:
Diamond, Rune, myself, and Durelin were all the first to vote for the people of their choice, and no one had received a second vote. This would be risky in any of their cases, but it's quite possible at that point that they had decided that it was worth a little risk, that their numbers looked well enough that a possible bit of sacrifice would be worth it. Lalaith created a four way tie when she voted for Rune so that he, Morm, Holby, and Durelin all had two votes - I would say that this is a fair possibility for a wolf-on-wolf vote, if again slightly risky. But again, they may have thought it would be worth it, even if he did get lynched. Ang's vote for Kath may be one of the most wolvish looking votes here. Four other people had two votes, this only made one for Kath, but so many people already had votes that this wouldn't be particularly suspicious. I'd say it's a possibility.

Of course, it's possible that none of these are the case. Voting has been so spread out that the wolves might not have felt it necessary to vote for their own. And maybe to decide, we need to look outside the individual votes...

[Firefoot]

Sorry for the double-post, but something else worthy of mention:

Wolves practically always vote. I think I remember one instance in which a wolf had to be killed for some reason (lack of posting, RL issues), but otherwise, people who don't vote are almost invariably innocent. That would make the Glirdan/Kath, Gurthang/Diamond, Diamond/Sauce, Rune/TGWBS, and Ang/Kath pairs all less likely - incidentally removing half the chances for wolf-on-wolf votes. This definitely is not guaranteed, but likely, especially for the Kath pairs, since she was around, even if rather uninformed. I think a wolf would have voted. TGWBS, also, I think would try a little harder if he were a wolf. I don't remember what happened with Diamond.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, we have three known innocents, or at least, known not-wolves. One of us could be the lover, but if we focus on getting the wolves, we'll take out the lover anyway, and even if one of us is the lover, the opinions of the other two innocents would counterbalance their influence (I hope).

So, the unknowns are:

Durelin
Kath
Lalaith
Diamond18
Firefoot
Gurthang
Rune Son of Bjarne
Saucepan Man
Anguirel
Glirdan
the guy who be short

I'm inclined to trust Durelin and Diamond. SpM, too, I suppose, but with our seer gone, the only way we can find out about him is lynching, because otherwise we (or at least I) will have no idea.

I still feel most uneasy about Kath and Gurthang.

EDIT: cross-posted with Firefoot, who makes a good point about Kath

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

So Hoblytlass was the Seer, that really suprised me.

The people she named as inoccents was, not any of those I suspected so that does not really do a lot for me. (of course it helps knowing some inocents, but you know what I mean)

I need to do alot of thinking about my suspects before I can post anything of use, but I hope to do so before I go to bed. (withinn the next 4 hours).

I would just like to thank Firefoot for making those vote overview, they are really nice to have.

[Lalaith]

I'd prepared a nice voting tally too, but Firefoot does them so much better - and quicker. But one thing that I noted - the cross-posting at the end.

Kath's vote for Morm, and Gurthang 's for Holbytlass, was actually a cross-post at 9.59pm, so either of them might have thought they were casting the "killer vote." The same goes for Fin, who came in at 10pm with a vote for Rune - all three of those last-minute voters may have thought they were bringing their candidate up above the tie-breaker. Fin is of course a proven innocent (although she might, like the rest of the innocents, be a Lover. However, I agree with Firefoot that we needn't worry overmuch about this as the wolves will unfortunately be working their way through the innocents in the nights. )
Anyway I said yesterDay I thought Morm was onto something with Jenny's Hunter list and I still think so. I'm going to ponder on it and get back to you all in the morning.

[Lalaith]

Oh, and Firefoot, on non-voting wolves, I remember my very first WW game, IV - I don't think a single wolf voted on the first day.

[Firefoot]

Oh, and Firefoot, on non-voting wolves, I remember my very first WW game, IV - I don't think a single wolf voted on the first day.

Wow, I'd forgotten how... different... it used to be. I'd say for the most part, though, the point still stands.

[Gurthang]

Well, that was not good. If I had voted a few seconds earlier, I would have saved morm, only to lynch our Seer! Not good options. I was not happy when I crossed with Kath and knew that morm was gone. I had become fairly convinced of his innocence. I only wish Holby could have seen that before she had posted.

Originally Posted by Taliesin

And Holby insisted we lynch Saucepan Man, or did she merely hint he's not to be trusted, I'm not sure how to interpret that message.

I think she just said she was unsure about him. And truthfully, I'm inclined to think him innocent. Which is good, because I think he's going to be around for a few more Days. With a decent number of known innocents, the wolves are probably going to kill them at Night. So Saucepan will survive whether he's innocent or not. I think he is, especially since he was going after Holby. I think a wolvish Saucey would have just killed her at Night rather than try to get her lynched.

I was going to look at Guy and Glirdan again, but now I'm unsure about everything. I might go back and see who I was suspicious of earlier. Maybe I'll do better trusting my gut rather than my brain. At least now I know who not to lynch.

[Firefoot]

I think he is, especially since he was going after Holby. I think a wolvish Saucey would have just killed her at Night rather than try to get her lynched.

Why would Sauce-wolf - or any wolf - want to lynch Holby during the night? She had been attracting plenty of suspicion during the Days, and not being overly helpful to the villagers (unlike, for example, Eomer, who really was just too daunting for them to leave alive). Although I do agree with the sentiment that Sauce is probably innocent. (Scary thought: he's the innocent lover and knows no more about the wolves than most of us do... I wonder how much the wolf lover has told the innocent lover. Hm...)

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Why would Sauce-wolf - or any wolf - want to lynch Holby during the night? She had been attracting plenty of suspicion during the Days...

True. I was saying that if he thought she was the Seer, then he would have killed her on Night 3, not tried to lynch her Day 3. Although, if he was innocent and thought she was the Seer he wouldn't have tried to get her lynched at all. So I guess he probably didn't think she was Seer at all. So pretty much what I just said (in my last post) doesn't even make sense.

Although, I feel like he's innocent, but I really have no reasoning behind it. Well, as bad as my reasoning has been so far, that's probably a good thing.

[Diamond18]

Am I the only one who thinks Saucey looks very Wolfish??? So Wolfish that I will scream if someone else is lynched toDay. Before Holby's reveal I was merely suspicious but now I'm in the mood for a Valier style campaign. (Yes, I know I don't have Valier style instincts, but that's not going to stop me, ha!)

There's a lot of this going around: "Saucepan is dangerous as a wolf yes, but if he's innocent he's too great an assest to the village to lynch."

Balderdash! The dangers of Wolfman Sauce (Or Saucepan Goose!) far outweigh the merits of Innocent Sauce and the above argument for keeping him around is case in point. Yes, we won't be able to wait to see if the Wolves will kill him at night -- they've got their next 3 night kills pretty well taken care of, now that all the Gifteds are gone. If we wait 3 whole days to lynch Wolfman Sauce, well, we may never get the chance.

I don't mean to say that Sauce isn't a good player when innocent. But face it, Villagers have won games without him before so saying he shouldn't be lynched just 'cause of that isn't much of an argument.

Okay. So, not that I'm in full dudgeon I'm going to go off and do a Saucepan Man analysis. Considering this, it may be a long time before I resurface. But, happily, I've got nothing to do and nowhere to go-oh-oh (I wanna be sedated!) so, I can....

I don't remember what happened with Diamond.

That's because I never said why I didn't vote.

I overslept. But I have an excuse -- I'd been awake for nearly 48 hours prior to actually sleeping that night. When I finally got up the next morning I had to go to work, and worked until after the deadline. Yeah, yeah, I know. My ability to schedule my life is pretty much bat guano.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Diamond

Am I the only one who thinks Saucey looks very Wolfish???

Quite possible. I for one has not seen much that could make one of my suspects.

Originally Posted by Diamond

Balderdash! The dangers of Wolfman Sauce (Or Saucepan Goose!) far outweigh the merits of Innocent Sauce and the above argument for keeping him around is case in point.

If I was doubting wether he was innocent or not I would agree with you, but normaly I don't kill people because they will be dangoures as wolves. At least not on that reason alone.

Originally Posted by Diamond

I'm going to go off and do a Saucepan Man analysis.

With all the other beeing said, I want to add that I of course would conisder voting SPM. But it will take some pretty convinsing arguments. . .

[Durelin]

Odd.

Well, I'm guessing Holby didn't dream of any wolves. She didn't seem to go after anyone in particular.

Hey...now we don't have to worry about lynching any Gifteds...

[Durelin]

(Scary thought: he's the innocent lover and knows no more about the wolves than most of us do... I wonder how much the wolf lover has told the innocent lover. Hm...)

Just goes to show you how important communication is in any relationship...

[Caranlondien]

Holby didn't dream of any wolves. She told us who she dreamt of, and they were all innocent.

I'm interested by Diamond's suspicions of SpM, especially since I think she (Diamond) is probably innocent. If you have a compelling case, Di, please put your thoughts out there.

[Durelin]

Holby didn't dream of any wolves. She told us who she dreamt of, and they were all innocent.

*smacks herself many times*

Okay, so I didn't read anything before the end of YesterDay yet.....

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

*smacks herself many times*
Okay, so I didn't read anything before the end of YesterDay yet.....

Don't worry about it - if anything, it just solidifies my inclination to trust you.

Originally Posted by Diamond

I'm going to go off and do a Saucepan Man analysis.

Ah, didn't see this before. Looking forward to it.

I'll be looking over Kath's posts.

[Glirdan]

Why did I have a feeling that Holby was innocent? I didn't think she was the Seer, but I certainly didn't think she was a Wolf either. Gah! And why did she leave that bit about Saucy in her revelation post? She couldn't have dreamed of him. So why did she put it there? Is it her suspicion?

Am I the only one who thinks Saucey looks very Wolfish??? So Wolfish that I will scream if someone else is lynched toDay. Before Holby's reveal I was merely suspicious but now I'm in the mood for a Valier style campaign. (Yes, I know I don't have Valier style instincts, but that's not going to stop me, ha!)

You most certainly are not the only one. I've had gut feelings about that Man since Day 1 but nothing solid to go on. Gah! Now I'm torn in two: to vote for him or not to vote for him? I would vote for him because he's dangerous as a Wolf...to dangerous... But I don't want to vote for him because he's a valuable asset to this village if innocent. Gah! But Diamond brings up a good point:

I don't mean to say that Sauce isn't a good player when innocent. But face it, Villagers have won games without him before so saying he shouldn't be lynched just 'cause of that isn't much of an argument.

Diamond, please resurface soon with that analysis. I don't really have the patience (or the brain capacity at this point [my brain is on major meltdown mode especially since school is officially over for me!! YAY!! ]) to do so myself.

Gah! I'm going off to clear my head...

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

If I was doubting wether he was innocent or not I would agree with you, but normaly I don't kill people because they will be dangoures as wolves. At least not on that reason alone.

Then why did you vote for Eomer on Day 1? Before he had even posted? Maybe I'm being a little nit-picky here, but that makes you seem very suspicious to me.

Right now, my suspects include Guy, Glirdan, and now Rune. I'll say my secondary list would be Lalaith and Diamond, since I thought them worth mentioning as suspicious earlier in the game. I don't know how I'll vote, but it will most likely depend on what happens toDay. I don't think I'll have time to look back through very much of what's been said.

I also am intersted in seeing what Diamond says about Saucepan.

[Diamond18]

Wolfman Sauce

Day 1

#21

Wolfy's (okay, okay) Saucey's first post is pure in character flamboyance. The only really interesting thing to note is his consistent reference to WWJ VIII in the form of his honking Goose which oh so jokingly insists that Potboiler is shady. Maybe it's just my paranoia, but it smacks somehow of a bold dareisay "saucey" wolf having rather a good time waving the obvious at us all in the name of roleplaying. I mean, he's played a few games in between this one and WWJ VIII so why refer back to it now?

This alone however means nothing in and of itself, it's just a feeling, so onwards....

#23

Still in character, not much to note in and of itself. However -- he is responding to Kath's suggestion to off Eomer, a proposition which he will later spend a lot of time opposing seriously (even after Eomer's death at the paws of the wolves -- note the important aspect of vindication).

#24

In character attack on pirates (Jenny and me) and another subliminal message from the Goose. Not much to say.

#28

His player-by-player analysis is pretty much all joking, and yet he somehow manages to come up with a lynch list from it. Lynch lists are serious business and is in stark contrast to the seemingly pure banter preceding. His reasoning is, of course, pretty much all role related, but the list conveniently includes 3 proven innocents (I of course count 4 to include myself) 2 of which were Gifteds. He explicitly states that even if Jenny, Taliesen and I are innocent we'll be no great loss.

I dislike this post because it seems to contain, to me, a lot of serious malice hidden behind the innocuous joking.

#30



#48

Explicitly states that a wolf would want to prolong the banter whilst calling for an end to the banter. "Look at me, I'm so not Wolfish!"

Also, defends Eomer. Strongly defending someone whose identity you don't know is... interesting. The only people who knew Eomer was innocent were the wolves and so I find a wolf to be in excellent position to defend Eomer and look good for it after Eomer died.

#49

Not much to mention about this one, though I do find it odd that all is right with the world when Nilp self votes, but when Form acts Vintage Form, it was one of the bothersome things. (See #48)

#55

Mmm... nothing much to note. The discussion of Lovers, spurning Google (how lazy, ) is neither innocent nor guilty. I wonder though why he wants to trust Ang?

#66

Rejects Jenny's suggestion that the Goose is a Fea-style bluff. (I remain suspicious.)

#67

Hmm. If I were a Wolf on Day 1, I would do my best to lie low, blend in, act normally and avoid attracting undue attention. Perhaps throw out a few theories or ideas, but nothing that might lead back to my pack-fellows or later serve as a hostage to fortune.

Make note, this is very conveniently not how he's acting. He's being very bold (flood-posting, really) and making efforts not to blend in. Then he comes around and tells us how un-wolfish his behavior so far has been.

Okay, to his credit, though, he does make note that:

It’s always the least likely ones as turns out to be Wolves in my experience.

Which is a common SaucePhrase that I thought was missing. However, it doesn't go all the way to settle my wrong feeling based on the first quote.

The other interesting thing to note is the second lynch list is a bit different than the first, with only Taliesin making it onto both lists.

#81

His reason for voting Holby seems a mix of her behaving how he thinks a wolf would, and the in character banter about her being a whale hunter. I suppose a proper analysis of this vote would requite an analysis of Holby's behavior that day, to see how it actually compares to the way he portrayed it. Augh.

Day 2

#118

This is the post with all the told you so'ing about Eomer. Compared to Jenny's I told you so'ing it seems more calculated to me. Like he had rehearsed all along how he was going to use Eomer's death to cast suspicion on the Eomer voters. (2 of which are now proven innocent, and I am able to count myself as a 3rd for my own personal ruminations).

As for the Eomer voters, well I will be keeping an eye on all of them. Although, again, I doubt that more than one, or two at most, voted for him.

This seems fishy to me. It's a good way to raise suspicion in other people's minds without seeming too committed to attacking on your own part. That way, when they all start popping up innocent, you can say you never said they were guilty, just suspicious. It's perhaps this doing a lot of talking about Eomer but not actually pushing his own personal votes towards it that disturbs me in the sense it seems like trying to control the lynchings without actually seeming to be controlling. And it seems to be working, 'cause many are very vocal about their trust for him.

#121

Well this is just... silly. Even if he didn't think we should have been discussing Eomer, it's a big fat no duh that we would have. The events of Day 1 sort of pitted those who think Eomer is too dangerous to leave alive and those who... don't. Just because Saucey is on the "don't" side doesn't mean there wasn't going to be any debate nor anymore Eomer votes cast had Eomer lived. With this statement Mr. PanMan is being overly controlling of the village (thought police!) and living in a utopian world where everyone posts the way he thinks they ought. Which compounds the feeling that Eomer's death was to create a forum for waving about how right he was about Scottish Innocence.

#125

Does allow for the possibility of Eomer's death being a frame up of Eomer "grudge voters" (though, if you ask me, what a silly idea for a frame up. Wolves don't kill for grudges, they kill Gifteds). He brings up and interesting point about Gurthang, which I find interesting enough to merit looking into, but, later.

#157

Continues ruminating about Eomer's death and the wolves' motivation, which seems to be a rather disturbing obsession with him. Other things to note in this really long post is that he continues to pester Holbytlass, suspects Gurthang of wolf-on-wolf voting (which I know not to be the case) and find Glirdan to be off the mark but innocent. Interestingly, in the end suspicion summary, he mentions me, Firefoot, and Durelin without having really given any reasoning as to why we are also wolfish in his view in addition to Holby, Glirdan, and morm. (Morm was a top suspect due to his case against Ang.)

#169

You know, I too am rather concerned about Jenny. As I mentioned earlier, and as others have commented since, her (seemingly rather frantic) attempt to save both Nilp and Eomer, followed by the deaths of both and thereby the proof of their innocence, may well have been calculated to make her look good.

Frankly, maybe it's the hindsight speaking, but Jenny's behavior re: Eomer's innocence seems more genuine than SpM constant harpage upon the subject. And pointing this out without mentioning that he too has been in the I told you so position strikes me as the Potboiler calling the Hunter black.

And then of course there's the whole "OOOPS, did I do that?" aspect of shining a bright light on Jenny's pointing out that she might be the Hunter.

Sorry, Jenny, if you are the Hunter and I have blown your cover. But I figured that, if there is anything in it, the Wolves will have picked up on it anyway.

Uh-huh. Because you're a wolf! Why were you "rather concerned" about Jenny if you thought she was the Hunter? Huh? Why did you at first try to paint her as wolfish, then in the very same post blast about that she could possibly be the Hunter?

#171

Funnily, in this post he does an about face and implies that Jenny is the innocent Lover. Which, if she were the Hunter as he seemed to think, she could not be.

#174

I really don't think that she is the Hunter.

What? What happened to Sorry Jenny if you are the Hunter and I have blown your cover?

#190

Votes Holby.

Day 3

#245

Diamond: Posted first and, when Glirdan speculated that Wolves often post first, spent a great deal of energy in effectively disproving the point.

Heh, trust me, SpM, this analysis takes far more energy than listing a bunch of easily accessible facts. Funny though what you consider to be a great deal of energy... that list took a minimum of energy. Plus it didn't require me to actually analyze any of the posts for this game, which is what I was having trouble getting into at the time. Lastly, and of course I do realize no one will believe me, I did that list because Glirdan's comment made me curious to see if it was usually true, not just because I myself posted first.

His [Ang] voting record is lousy, although it doesn’t follow from that that he’s a Wolf.

I find it interesting that the last time I remember you you making a point about saying that about someone, you were the Goose trying to save Quath's feathery butt.

I find it interesting that he continues to assert a feeling of Glirdan's innocence, whilst Glirdan is one of the very few to agree with my mistrust for SpM so far toDay. Almost seems like two wolves trying to distance themselves from each other by forming opposing views of each other.

Alright, I'm starting to feel exhausted, and the post just keeps going on and on.... Plus I'm getting the sinking feeling that to adequately judge these summarizations of people's actions I'll have to do in depth analysis of each and every one of them as well. Which I can't do because I could spend the entire night into next afternoon and never get it done. Curse your loquacity, SpM! Argh!

#263

Votes again for Holby, and has not been heard from since to react to his main suspect turning out to be the Seer.

--

Well, that's it for Saucey. So this will be it for me:

+ + The Saucepan Man

[Caranlondien]

Day One

#16: In-character

#95: Says she won't vote toDay because it's close to deadline and she doesn't know what's been going on, soher vote would be random.

Day Two

#163: Surprised by Eomer's death, thinks wolves must have thought him to be the Seer. Thinks Jenny's I-told-you-so post is suspicious:

Originally Posted by Kath

She is either the Seer or a wolf. If she was the Seer I don't believe she would make that so obvious, so I'm leaning towards her guilt.

This worries me. I understand that you were making the point that you thought she was guilty, but why even bring up the possibility of her being gifted? On the other hand, you completely missed the (correct) other option that she was the Hunter.

#182: Agrees with Holby's points on Jenny. Considers the possibility of the morm-Ang thing being a wolf-on-wolf attack, throwing an innocent Glirdan into the mix. Wonders if Lhuna's claim that Firefoot is the wolf-lover is true, and if so, if Lhuna is the Seer.

#187: Wonders if the Seer sees the wolf-lover as just a wolf.

#191: Votes Jenny, saying she's been suspicious of her and doesn't think she's the Seer.

Day Three

#242: Analysis of Jenny's posts, just in case she was killed because they thought her the Seer. Agrees with suspicion around tgwbs

#243: Analysis of tgwbs; points out his relative quietness

#286: Comes back with a few minutes 'til deadline to find a tie. Doesn't want to vote Holby

#288: Votes morm

I'm less suspicious of Kath now than I was when I started doing the analysis. Something about her posts, particularly those about her suspicions of Jenny, seems genuine.

[Anguirel]

Alright. Thanks for that vote summary Firefoot; I'm now going to have a look at it.

Sauce – 1 (Diamond 1)
TGWBS – 1 (Rune 2)
Firefoot – 1 (Morm 3)
Durelin – 2 (Firefoot 4, Holby 11)
Glirdan – 1 (Taliesin 5)
Rune – 3 (Durelin 6, Lalaith 12, Findeasea 16)
Holby – 3 (Sauce 7, Caran 10, Gurthang 15)
Morm – 3 (Glirdan 8, TGWBS 9, Kath 14)
Kath – 1 (Ang 13)

Several things I'm looking for here; those responsible for the extremely wide field; votes for proven innocents; possible wolf-on-wolfers, though with the Lovers around I do imagine they're a bit less likely; and the tie-breakers-who were they really trying to save?

Diamond's Sauce-campaign looks like an innocent's forlorn hope. I did briefly wonder though if they might be none other than the Lovers...I mean, especially if you're not Valier, the Valier-method is about the least effective lynch routine in existence. Well, it's a possibility. An unlikely one though. I exonerate Dread Pirate Audrey for now.

Rune's vote for tgwbs apparently channelled sentiments that no one else shared-except, latterly, morm. They could be right, but I tend to agree with Engels that he's only suspicious when not suspicious. This was cast early-a failed attempt to gather a strong bandwagon? Or just a pronounced suspicion?

morm's vote looks similar. But we know it was cast with no treacherous intent.

Durelin's case was potentially stronger than it was. Many had expressed suspicion of her. Firefoot, then, might be accused of jumping on a widespread feeling. Might just as well though have followed a suspicion she shared. Holby's vote here is clearly self-preservation once more, bringing Durelin's bandwagon and hers level.

I think I'll pass over proven innocent votes.

Rune's bandwagon is one of the most interesting, because to me Durelin's first vote looks the most likely to be wolf-for-wolf. Rune and Durelin had collaborated against Holby, narrowly unsuccessfully, the day before. The transmogrification of this bandwagon into a real force was late and unexpected. Lalaith brought it level with the Holby and Durelin and later morm cases and Fin attempted to break the tie. Lalaith either suspected Rune more than the other candidates, conceivably was in cahoots with Durelin. (That is, if Durelin's vote was not wolf-for-wolf.) Durelin is the lynchpin in this mystery and it's Durelin I most want to find out about (Read, hang) of this lot.

Sauce's vote for Holby was the seventh consecutive bandwagon started in a row and was to be shadowed by an eighth. Sauce loudly bemoaned casting his vote in such a way when things were already so spread out. He also cast it-yet again-for a proven innocent. (I can't talk with Nilp's blood on my hands from Day 1, admittedly.) Wolfpan Man wouldn't have guessed Holby was a Seer, but would be hoping to use her as a scapegoat to avoid another wolf under threat. For I am certain there was one. It's the only way the frenetic voting at the end makes sense. Either Durelin or Rune, in my view, must be hairy. Caran voted for Holby, but regretted it. Her vote set a lot of other events in motion, poor maid. Then Gurthang tried to break the tie...in favour of a proven innocent, we know in retrospect. Tut tut.

But just when things seemed unlikely to get any more crass, up popped the morm bandwagon. Inspired by a panicky "get off my back" vote from Glirdan. Spurred on by mischievous Engels. Sealed by that quintessential Wolf, Kath. This vote really consummates my suspicions of her, which were already active enough yesterday to persuade me at last to vote for her. Were she and Gurthang urging separate causes? Or did they have the same aim in mind? Whichever of them are wolves, they succeeded and poor morm swung, leaving only acrimonious suspicions behind.

And then there was mine. I essentially did what Gurthang had done yesterday, and abstained with a political motive. My vote would have been, out of the leading contenders, almost certainly for Durelin and perhaps we would have retired to bed with yells of victory. It was not to be. In my defence, I did not mean to be ineffective. I wanted, and still want, Kath lynched. I cross-posted with a lot of votes which in my arrogance I was still hoping to garner.

So:

Of all this grievous company
'Tis Kath and Durelin I most
Fear and suspect; but second, the
Admiral, with his English roast,
Gurthang, Rune, constitute the rear
With Firefoot lurking somewhere near.