WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Diamond18]

This spat between you two is making my head spin. I'm really not sure what to make of it.

[Roa_Aoife]

That's not a meaning. That's an attempt to dodge the issue. The only meaning in that post was to say that Valier changed her mind on a bunch of people. No posts, or quotes, or actual evidences were given, and you didn't even know where they were anyways! You had to go look it up! And you want me to believe that real point of that was to add to what Diamond was saying? Fine, then that's the real point, you wanted to add feul to Diamond's fire. But that doesn't change the fact the what you said doesn't hold water.

Edit: signing off for the night back... I don't know when, but hopefully pre-deadline

[Firefoot]

I know I said I wasn't going to respond anymore, but...

That's not a meaning. That's an attempt to dodge the issue.

That's why I said "meaning behind the post" and not "meaning of the post". Maybe meaning was a bad word.

The amazing thing is that I still think Roa is probably innocent. In fact, I am becoming increasingly convinced of this. I've seen too many spats like this one between innocents to think otherwise.

I need to sit back and look at the wider picture again.

I've gone back and looked at Boromir's innocent list (on which I still think there is probably a penguin), and of Macalaure Eonwe, Spawn, and Valier, I think that Macalaure is the most likely to be innocent, for reasons others and I have already stated. Next is Spawn. What few posts she has made have felt extremely innocent to me, and she made some good points in her posts. Although, her suspicions of Ang really catch my eye, probably because both the people I have really suspected so far (Encai and Valier) and Boromir have all suspected Ang (or in Encai's case, more tried to bring attention to him). I'd like to hear more from her. Eonwe puzzles me. I couldn't get anything clear from his very few posts. I think it's safe to say that both he and Valier are not wolves. Valier, I still think is suspicious. Right now, she is definitely one of my prospects for voting.

In his second list, Diamond still feels innocent to me, leaving Encai and Naria. I went back and looked at Naria again, and she really hasn't said much at all. I have no idea about her - I find it odd that Valier keeps coming back and mentioning her. Gut feeling is one thing, but Naria has posted all of five times, and said not much at all. I really would like to know where this comes from. It makes me wonder if maybe it's a Valier-Naria alliance rather than Valier-Encai as I was thinking before.

I see my vote going to Valier, Encai, Naria, or Eonwe. Maybe Spawn if something comes up. I think that there is definitely at least one wolf in this bunch; maybe even two.

[Diamond18]

All quotes are from Roa's analysis of the moi.

Concerning her seer-cobbler idea, it didn't seem at all odd to me. When I read it, I simply thought that she meant if the seer knew who the cobbler was at the time she came forward, then we could simply ignore that person for the remainder of the game, rather than waste a lynch.

Exactly.

What bothers me is how she addressed the concerns about it. She said that all she meant was that when the seer came forward with some penguins, if the seer also knew who the cobbler was, she could point that out, too. This is a wholly obvious statement- the very kind she was putting down when she stated she was bored by the discussion. Strange bit of hypocrisy...

I didn't want to have to go to all that explaining myself, but at least three people (Lalaith, Boromir, and Jenny) brought it up and I wasn't going to just sit around letting people make it look like I wanted the Seer to come out and seal her death just for the sake of outing a little ol' Cobbler. You're right, it was obvious, but 'twasn't me who cast nefarious aspirations on my original statement.

I also find her statement about not likeing to analyze things before some deaths not very Diamond like at all. She knows perfectly well that this has caught a wolf on Day 1, with out seer reveals. I don't know, but it seems the usual Diamond spark is missing.

I don't think I've ever written player analysis on Day 1 before.... I'm always a bit shocked when we catch a wolf on Day 1 without the help of a seer reveal, actually. I've always viewed Day 1 wolf lynchings as rather a bit fortuitous.

And then there was her lists- she told Lal that she had bad feelings about her, myself, Eonwe, Naria, Enca, valier. However, her previous post showed that she didn't know anything about Enca, who had yet to post. How could she be worried about someone who had yet to show? It can't be past experience, because Diamond said that she had never played with Enca before.

Absence is, all by itself, worrisome. So says a known loudmouth. Still, my feelings on some of those people listed was just "niggling" rather than outrightly "bad."

There was also the rather bold statement of declaring herself a penguin.

Again, she agrees with Ang that she's suspicious, a rather bold move akin to her first day assertion that she's a penguin. So, she's not confident enough to know who to vote for, but she is confident enough to make that kind of statement?

Well, I know what I am, so of course I'm confident. My vote for Valier was because I found her slippery enough to be a more likely penguin than the overtly crazed Jenny, and they were the top vote getters. My firmest suspicion lay with the absent Spawn, and a vote for her wouldn't have mattered. I didn't like seeing Jenny suceed so roundly in her suicide, so I didn't want to make a throwaway vote.

All that said, despite me finding Valier's initial post toDay to be overly defensive, her response to me seemed more.... Valier-like. I think I may follow through on my threat to Eonwe or make a vote for Spawn, toDay. There's Enca as well, though I'm not as confident as Firefoot and Lal that she's necessarily bad. Firefoot herself seems oddly snappish. I also want to analyze you, for thouroughness, but I'm procrastinating on that.

One other thing I've noticed about Diamond that's odd- her willingness, almost eagerness, to go along with whatever phantom says.

Yeah, you got me. I'm secretly a phantom fangirl. Oh, I try to hide it, you know... arguing with tp in Survivor, posting lurid dreams involving Aimé... all just to throw you off the track.

Or maybe it's just nice to have a known innocent around whose every word I don't have to worry about.

Compare this to Deuling Wizards, where an innocent Diamond argued against the revealed Good Wizard's ideas of supplying suspects.

I don't see tp compiling a list of doom and implying that I'm evil if I don't obey him.... Are you planning on doing such a thing, tp? If you are, I'm afraid it'll be no more Miss Nice Dimwë.

For someone who is usually an independant firebrand, she's been rather... yeilding this game. A Diamond who goes along with others is a Diamond that just doesn't exist on the side of good.

So, I'm definitely a werepenguin, then?

X-posted with the ineFfenble one.

[Encaitare]

Well, that little "spat," as Diamond put it, was rather interesting to read. See what I mean about self-defense being pretty futile?

I'm now checking out everyone's Werewolf history in the grimoire to look for patterns in accordance with different roles. Expect this in the near future.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Di

I'm floundering and filp-flopping over Enca in my mind. Just don't know her style. Have you played with her?

She was a Wolf in WW XII, Erbar Telamarth. I can't remember who modded it and all, but I seem to remember it was an amazing game.

Originally Posted by Di

Yeah, you got me. I'm secretly a phantom fangirl.

It's not such a secret, hon, what with all of those pms you're always sending me late at night asking me what I'm wearing.

Originally Posted by Di

I don't see tp compiling a list of doom and implying that I'm evil if I don't obey him.... Are you planning on doing such a thing, tp? If you are, I'm afraid it'll be no more Miss Nice Dimwë.

Well, then I guess you're not going to like this. I've made a list of doom.

1) Diamond

And if you don't vote for someone on the list, you get lynched!

I've gotta go now. I'll be back tomorrow about four hours before the deadline, and I think I'll be able to stick around for the rest of the day.

Can we PLEASE hear from EVERYONE today. A LOT!

I want EVERYONE to lay out their suspicions of EVERYONE nice and clear. I can't stand having people hanging about the village whose positions are largely ambiguous. This way, if you're an innocent and you die then the village can look at your analysis knowing that you had no bad intentions, and if you're a Penguin and you die then the village can try and figure out who your partner in crime is.

If I haven't seen much of anything from a couple of you in particular by the end of the Day I'm probably going to vote for you, and others will probably do the same.

[Diamond18]

Roa_Aoife

#6

Starts with "nonsense" and then states that she's better at analysis than theorizing, says lynching the Cobbler would be no loss, finds a sneaky Cobbler like SpM more dangerous than a suicidal Cobbler. Corrects her Eonwe/Elenwe mistake. And here I go summarizing when I don't care for that.... Okay, my thought on this post is... Was this really the thing that sparked the analyze/theory debate?

#61

TP, Kitanna, and Boromir have caught her eye, and she addresses some of their posts. Boro's posts are indeed weird when I compare them to Roa's initial post, so I can see why an innocent Roa would find him to be off.

#70

Boro analysis, sans personal thoughts, which come in post:

#72 - #77 - #79

Makes valid points (obviously) about Boro's inconsistent posting. So... unless she were to be pulling another Roa/Nogord stunt a la DWW, things seems to speak highly for her innocence. It relies on the question of whether you think Roaguin and Boroguin would plot such heavy wolf on wolf action for Day 1.

#81

A reply to Ang, which makes Ang look worse and her look better, knowing now that Boro was guilty.

#88

Votes for Boro, no surprise there.

#92

Continued debate with Boro, a la #72/#77/#79.

#101

"I told you so" in response to Lal's reveal, chides village for forching Lal's hand, but approves of Ang's attempt to save her.

#110

Intends to vote for Kit to save Lal if no one else shows to vote for Boro.

#115

"Well, that just sucks then. Nevermind. NAria- what are you doing?"

#119

Trying to convince Naria to change her vote.

#124

"And Lal is safe! Good job Naria! Boromir now has 5 votes."

#129

"That was the most nerve-racking ten minutes of my month.

EDIT: Cross posted with mod again. I have to stop that."

#133

Not surprised by Kit's death, intends to analyze Boro and anyone who mentioned/interacted with him. Tells Lal to reveal only if the innocent person is in danger of being lynched.

#135

Says that if the person is the Hunter Lal should definitely reveal but not reveal that they are the Hunter. This is a somewhat self-defeating plan, because she'd just said not to reveal unless there seems to be danger of lynching, so if Lal followed her advice but revealed sooner than later, it would tell us that person is the Hunter.

#145

Makes her lists of people re: Boro.

#149

Explains Kit's Ranger reveal.

#151

Questions those who played with Boromir.

I can theorize that a Roaguin and a Boroguin could plot for Boro play things in a marketedly different way than his last game, get Boro lynched, then use his history of not fingering comrades as a defense for Roa. But this seems pretty out there, especially as it relies again on sacrificing Boro Day 1, which seems awfully reckless in a village where Roa wouldn't be able to make anymore werepenguins to play with.

#154

Says Ang and Jenny are pinging her radar, would like the Boro-knowledge, but questions the use of PMs. This once more seems innocent to me, as if she was a penguin orchestrating a plot in which Boro behaves differently than before, the PMs could only help her case.

#158

Um... yeah. I made a typo, saying TiG XX instead of TiG X, and she responded as if I actually meant TiG XX, even though I'd already fixed the typo at that point. Of course, she does follow it directly with a statement that she needs sleep. This strikes me as odd, though:

"Honestly, you could just tell us what he's prone to do- there's no reall reason to use them."

That in regards to PMs. Isn't she the one who wanted to know about what Boro is prone to do? There is a reason to use them, therefore, it's just a matter of being allowed to.

#191

She says more than I'm mentioning, but the points of interest are that she thinks Ang is the Cobbler and points out that Eonwe is likely Mod Fire fodder. If she and Eonwe were avian teamates and she was sure he was going to return, this could be a way of saving him from a lynching. But, I doubt it.

#206

Jenny summary/analysis. Builds a case very thourough case against her, thinks she is either a penguin or the Cobbler.

#210

"Eonwe, you do realize that if you don't vote today, you'll be removed from the game, don't you?"

#219

Votes Jenny, tying her with Valier.

#224

Responds to Ang about Diamond's possible guilt, but notes that I've never been guilty that she has seen, asks if I ever have been. (The answer to that is no, I never have.)

#231

Post votes, says Jenny is to be hanged.

#234

"Good bye, Lal. Well done, and thanks for your help."

#243 - #245

Ang summary/analysis/opinion. She thinks he is innocent, largely based on Boro's behavior, but doesn't rule his possible guilt out.

#249

Defends Valier, sort of, against Diamond and Firefoot.

#255 - #256

Diamond summary/analysis/opinion. I think she thinks I'm evil?

"A Diamond who goes along with others is a Diamond that just doesn't exist on the side of good."

At first I thought this read, "A Diamond who gets along with others..." and I thought, "Gee, thanks." Ha. I am, actually, an INFJ and this is what they say 'bout me:

Accurately suspicious about others' motives, INFJs are not easily led. These are the people that you can rarely fool any of the time.

So yeah, she may have a point there, if I'm allowing myself to be led, something is fishy. But I don't think I've been "going along" really, so much as taking comfort in the fact that I know tp isn't evil and purposefully misleading.

#259

Says that it's a good thing Jenny is lynched, points out Jenny's Cobbler hints [D'oh!]. Makes responses to tp, which I'm an too tired to summarize.

#260

States intent to analyze Naria. Comments on Eonwe, and I pretty much agree with what she says. (Obviously, I said similar things yesterDay.)

#262

Shoots down Firefoot's case against Valier.

#265

Naria analysis. Not much to say, because, after all, it's Naria....

#266 - #270 - #271 - #273 - #276 - #278 - #279 - #282

Here be her side of the Rumble In Da Jungle with Firefoot. Obviously, this entire thing is a nefarious plot to best me in the post count. Well, ha ha, I'm not going to let it happen! Which is why my Conclusion will follow in my next post.

[Encaitare]

Valier
Game 1: WW16
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 4
Posts: 15
Avg. PPD (posts per day): 5

Game 2: WW17
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 3
Posts: 9
Avg. PPD: 4.5

Game 3: WWJ3
Role: Wolf
Death: killed by village on Day 4
Posts: 27
Avg. PPD: 6.75

Game 4: WWJ4
Role: Ordo
Death: Hanged by villagers on Day 5
Posts: 42
Avg. PPD: 8.4

Game 5: WW19
Role: Ordo
Death: Killed by wolf on Day 5
Posts: 32
Avg. PPD: 6.4

Game 6: WWJ8
Role: Ordo
Death: Slain on Night 6
Posts: 40
Avg. PPD: 6.7

Game 7: WW21
Role: Wolf
Death: killed on Day 4
Posts: 50
Avg. PPD: 12.5

Current Game
Day: 3 (16 1/2 hours left)
Total Posts: 23
Avg. PPD: 7.7

The post count in WW21 (Dueling Wizards) is a big jump from the rest of the games, but I understand this game had circumstances unlike any other, so I'm not sure what to make of it.

~*~*~*~*~

Diamond18

Game 1: WWJ6
Role: Ordo
Death: Survived till end (Day 3)
Posts: 27
Avg. PPD: 9

Game 2: WWJ7
Role: Hunter (Taker)
Death: Killed on Night 4
Posts: 37
Avg. PPD: 12.3

Game 3: WW20
Role: Ordo
Death: Killed on Night 4
Posts: 39
Avg. PPD: 13

Game 4: WW21
Role: Ordo
Death: Killed by wolves on Night 9
Posts: 88
Avg. PPD: 11

(Di, the problem was that when I searched the Grimoire for you, I searched your full name, while in that game you were listed as just Diamond. I apologize for the omission.)

Current Game:
Day: 3 (16 1/4 hours left)
Posts: 35
Avg. PPD: 11.7

Diamond's post count remains pretty consistent, too. I'm afraid that my computer might crash and I'll lose a lot of work, so I'm posting this and the rest will follow.

[Diamond18]

Okay. I mostly feel that Roa is innocent. Pretty much everything she's done and said has been blameless, so trying to pin anything on her is a fruitless endeavor, as Boro obviously found out. She got into a fight with Firefoot but she seems genuine in her attacks. You have to approach her with the assumption that she is definitely a penguin to be able to read shady intentions into her posts. So, as that seems rather silly and malicious, I'm not going to do it.

The only problem I see with Roa is that I know for a fact she's disturbingly good at stylish evil. And I've played a game in which she was a wolf yet before my death at her paws I had her placed in my most innocent of innocent positions on a list of suspects. This is why a Seer dream of Roa is a must have. Unfortunately, Lalaith died with the secret on her lips. So all I can say is that there are more likely suspects at this point, and to lynch Roa toDay would be folly, in my opinion. It's my prediction that after tp is slaughtered, Roa will be next on the penguins' menu, if they live through the next two lynchings. If Roa lives through the next few Nights after tp's death, and her top suspects are lynched and turn up innocent, then I'd start to worry.

[Diamond18]

Enca, you left out my fourth game, which was TiG XXI: Dueling Wizards.

Also, are you taking into account, with the post counts, that people often come back and post in the game thread after the game is over?

Also:
Day: 3 (4 1/4 hours left)

I hope not? Because that puts the deadline at about 5 AM my time instead of the usual 5 PM.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by the phantom

She was a Wolf in WW XII, Erbar Telamarth. I can't remember who modded it and all, but I seem to remember it was an amazing game.

Okay, so, I've noted that she was the last Wolf down in that game. Fascinating. Unfortunately, I have spent my evening on Firefoot and Roa analysis (analyses? analysi?) and to spend another couple hours researching Enca.... Sane Diamond wouldn't do it. I'll perhaps get back to you on Insane Diamond's stance.

It's not such a secret, hon, what with all of those pms you're always sending me late at night asking me what I'm wearing.

Yes, but, I find your answers intriguing from a psychological standpoint. For instance, the fishnet stockings and hot pants you wore last night....

Well, then I guess you're not going to like this. I've made a list of doom.

1) Diamond

And if you don't vote for someone on the list, you get lynched!

I hope you're not serious.

I've gotta go now. I'll be back tomorrow about four hours before the deadline, and I think I'll be able to stick around for the rest of the day.

Can we PLEASE hear from EVERYONE today. A LOT!

I should perhaps point out that I will not be around for the 4 and a half hours leading up to the deadline. Pooh. So, all this jabber you're getting from me now is me trying to get all my useful posting done while I can. After I go beddy-bye, you can only expect me to show up once more to vote before work.

That said, I may vote before bed, just on the off chance I oversleep or can't get online before work.... I mean, I get a retraction. Might as well indulge.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Di

Also:
Day: 3 (4 1/4 hours left)

Yes, I just realized that... it's past 2 AM and I'm falling asleep yet trying to plug away at these stats nevertheless. I shall go back and fix it. I shall also add your fourth game.

Also, are you taking into account, with the post counts, that people often come back and post in the game thread after the game is over?

I am not taking this into account... I'm willing to spend a lot of time going over stats, but I'm not going to go that far. If anyone else is willing to spend the time on it, go for it... if not, just subtract a couple of posts from everyone's count.

[Diamond18]

Okay, I've made a quick desicion. I'm not staying up to reasearch Enca circa WW XII, because like my subject it's around 2 AM where I am and I'm falling asleep. So, for the time being:

+ + SPAWN

Because I find her earlier behavior suspicious and un-innocent-Spawn-like, and so far she has done nothing to alleviate my concerns.

My other suspects are kind of getting all muddled together in my head. I must need sleep.

[Encaitare]

Naria

Game 1: WW16
Role: Hunter
Death: "Disappeared" on Night 9
Posts: 17
Avg. PPD: 2.1

Game 2: WW17
Role: Wolf
Death: killed by villagers on Day 4
Posts: 11
Avg. PPD: 2.75

Game 3: WW19
Role: Ordo
Death: Survived to the end (Day 6)
Posts: 23
Avg. PPD: 3.8

Game 4: WW20
Role: Shaman
Death: Survived to the end (Day 5, I believe)
Posts: 17
Avg. PPD: 3.4

Game 5: WWJ5
Role: Ordo
Death: Killed on Night 4
Posts: 12
Avg. PPD: 4

Game 6: WW21
Role: Wolf
Death: Killed by Hunter on Night 3
Posts: 11
Avg. PPD: 5.5

Current Game
Day: 3 (15 1/2 hours left)
Posts: 5
Avg. PPD: 1.7

Macalaure - No previous games

Current Game
Day: 3 (15 1/2 hours left)
Posts: 19
Avg. PPD: 6.3

By the way, I will recalculate the post counts for the current game at the end of Day 3 so as to make the averages more accurate.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Diamond.

[Diamond18]

Oh, one other thing, what happened to Ang? Did he show up today? At all? Did I miss an away notice?

[Anguirel]

How can you have been so blasted talkative in a mere 9 hours?

I've just woken up.

Diamond's audreyfication is distracting me from the higher purpose of lynching her. I just don't want that avatar to go...

OK, a proper post in a while. Too groggy now.

[Encaitare]

Firefoot

Game 1: WW1
Role: Wolf
Death: lynched by villagers on Day 2
Posts: 7
Avg. PPD: 3.5

(NOTE: All post counts for the very first Tol-in-Gaurhoth game have been counted by me and do not include (merely clicking the Who's Posted thing on this thread would be a huge mistake, seeing as it's now 80-something pages long!)

Game 2: WW3
Role: Guardian
Death: killed by wolves on Night 4
Posts: 20
Avg. PPD: 6.7

Game 3: WW4
Role: Ordo
Death: survived to the end (Day 5)
Posts: 28
Avg. PPD: 5.6

Game 4: WW5
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 4
Posts: 20
Avg. PPD: 6.7

Game 5: WW6
Role: Mythomaniac
Death: survived to the end (Day 4)
Posts: 30
Avg. PPD: 7.5

Game 6: WW8
Role: Shirriff
Death: killed on Night 3
Posts: 10
Avg. PPD: 5

Game 7: WW12
Role: Seer
Death: killed by wolves on Night 4
Posts: 25
Avg. PPD: 8.3

Game 8: WW13
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 6
Posts: 31
Avg. PPD: 6.2

Game 9: WWJ4
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by winning wolves on Day 5
Posts: 34
Avg. PPD: 6.8

Game 10: WWJ6
Role: Ordo
Death: survived to the end (Day 3)
Posts: 17
Avg. PPD: 5.7

Game 11: WW21
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 5
Posts: 33
Avg. PPD: 8.25

Current Game:
Day: 3 (15 hours left)
Posts: 17
Avg. PPD: 5.7

Alrighty, I'm very very tired now, having delved deep into the archives of Werewolf lore. I'm going to get some sleep... I'll be back maybe around noon EST to finish the stats. In the meantime, glean from these what you will.

[Naria]

Ok, here's my impression of everyone so far.

In order as per the list of players

Anguirel- Hmmm he's a tuff one to understand. I don't like the way that he is being so pushy with his posts especially towards people that I don't find particularly evil right now. Quite frankly some of his posts don't make any sense at all and that doesn't sit well with me.

Spawn- I don't know. She hasn't been playing like she normally does, maybe it's due to RL but maybe not. I would expect alot more from her by now and that just hasn't happened yet. Another one that isn't sitting well with me.

Diamond- She seems to be acting per usual. Nothing to send up red flags yet.

Enca- She has some pretty good reasoning in her posts, but I am not ready to take my eye off of her just yet.

Eonwe- Seems rather elusive and pretty confident that he will be around the next four or five or was it six Days to come up with something. That kind of behaviour makes me uneasy.

Firefoot- I'm not sure about. She seems to be trying to give it her all, but fumbles the ball at times. Like I said....I'm not sure.

Mac- A newbie and to me he is acting like one, an outspoken one, but nonetheless a newbie. Yes, he could be one of our flightless fiends, but I would think that someone would have picked up on something in one of his chatty posts to point in that direction.

Naria- She is rather quite so far in this game, but I'm assuming that RL has reared it's ugly head on a number of occasions. And that is why she is posting so early in the morning 1am; while her world sleeps so she can get this summary done.

TP- Seems to be doing his usual Fred off of Scooby-Doo. Directing who is to go where and how we are supposed to do it . And as Lal pointed out....an ordo, so he would be the only one that we should heed or at the very least consider what he has to say.

Roa- Is evil! HA....I jest of course. But, I don't trust her nonetheless....I don't know if I ever will. She's crafty beyond belief. If there is one person that can pull off a septuple bluff, I'm sure Roa could do it with ease.

Valier- She's another hard one to read. I do want to mention, however that she can be quite the asset in a village with her uncanny ability for WW spotting.

Well that's about that. I won't be doing another one like this, so enjoy. I'm off to bed now.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Bringing up old village matters this much is a bit distracting, I think. Encai's effort to deduce something by posting records is interesting, but it lacks a lot of information, like what was the player's situation in RL at that time, who else was playing ie. was it a loud village where there was hard to keep up, for example, what kind of comrades did a wolf have in a village etc, and I'm not sure if I want to go that far with this. I'd rather concentrate on what's going on in this village using experience to back up theories, but not in the source material.

About Encai and Firefoot...

Due to RL Encai could post only twice on Day 1. She mentiones that in both her posts, and in the last one says that the penguins can be loud, too, and not of the silent type (like herself). She suspects Lalaith for being helpful too early and spawn for being suspicious of Anguirel while Encai isn't. Says that her vote for Lalaith is probably wrong, but it's as good a guess as she can make at the moment.

On Day 2 Encai thinks that Boro might have placed one of his comrades on his suspect list. On that account she finds Roa innocent and Ang a bit suspicious. Later she repeats that she thinks that Roa is innocent and thinks that Macalaure would have reacted differently to Di's vote for him if he was a penguin. She agrees with phantom's earlier opinion that Mac is innocent although phantom later suspects him based on the voting. She also lists the votes and agrees with Mac about Jenny (that she looks supicious). Later she talks more about why she finds Jenny suspicious, and votes for her giving her a 5th vote while Valier has 4.

ToDay Encai has answered some points Firefoot made against her. Ff based her accusations on the assumption that Valier is a WP which was a bit rash, I think. Still, it's one theory, and having different theories to consider is a good thing. The only thing bothering me about Ff mentioning Encai's vote like that was that Ff didn't say that Encai had suspected Jenny earlier that Day, and she excused Di for tying Valier with Jenny. Yes, it's still part of the theory that 'what if Valier is a WP', but it sounded odd. It's not really safe to assume anyone innocent based on a guess of someone's guilt.

Even though Ff admitted that she didn't have much to go on about Encai and Naria, her reasons to suspect Encai were a bit sloppily put together which I wonder, since I think Ff would have been capable to do more than that. In that sense I understand that Encai wanted to clear it up by answering to Ff.

However, the way that Encai sticked to her earlier statement of Jenny doesn't as simply make her look innocent as she might think. First she agreed with Mac about Jenny saying that she had in her thoughts been suspicious of Jenny earlier, too. Then she added a couple of her own comments, and after two long analyses of Jenny by other people, she voted for her. Whether Valier is a WP or not, that would have been a logical thing for a WP to do; choose a target, agree with people, try to add a few own opinions and vote consistently.

Encai hopes to do something else later than to defend herself, and so she starts posting WW statistics. Looks very nice and helpful, but she doesn't really comment on them herself and as I said, they lack important information, so this brings to mind an attempt to look helpful while hiding some penguinesque features.

As to Firefoot, the skirmish between her and Roa was interesting. It happened in a very little of time after several people had suddenly voiced concerns of her, but I don't know what to think of it. Right now I'm a bit wary of both Encai and Firefoot. More later.

[Anguirel]

My internet has been broken between my last post and now. Will edit this when I have something decent to say.

Right. Well, the Right Honourable Kuruharan once called summarising lists "campy", but e'en he resorted to them in the end, and now I intend to follow his example, to create some kind of order, and always to keep in mind what we already know-Boro was a wolf. What relationship would he have had to our suspects? How will their behaviour have been affected by his loss? And does it match with what I can see? So, in no particular order:

Valier-as a wolf she is a hardy lieutenant who is often quite hard to catch; for the reasons Diamond raised, that her tactics are so consistent. In this case, I'm not entirely sure. I was more willing to absolve her yesterday. The fact that Diamond was pretty much urging her to the gibbet is in my mind some kind of evidence in her favour. But there are troubles here. Her "instincts" do seem slightly affected by realpolitick-what she can realistically hope to achieve according to the fluctuations of public opinion. Hence she has laid off the generally trusted Macalaure, concentrated fire especially on me, and now, it must be said, seems to transfer some energy to Firefoot and Eonwe. Not sure, but I won't vote for her unless some of my clearer theories are derailed.

Firefoot-Bleeding heck. What is going on here? Perhaps it's nothing more than a somewhat understandable phase of Werewolf satiation. Like Diamond (disconcertingly I find my reactions to recent events chime with Diamond's on several fronts) I have no idea what was going on in her war with Roa. However the detachment I see seems more preoccupied than tactical, really. Give her time, maybe. Today at least.

Diamond-Must transcend Audrey-worship. Must transcend Audrey-worship. Diamond now seems pretty down-to-earth and sensible (ooo, she won't like that). All the more reason to keep suspecting her! I come at this from a different angle to Roa's case-to me Diamond is making too much sense not to know too much, and I'm even starting to worry about being influenced by her. Aye, me, the die-hard individualist. She very nearly got Valier lynched rather than Jenny yesterday, without overtly disagreeing with Jenny's lynching-had she sighted a Cobbler ally?

Enca-a lot more attention has been paid to her after Lalaith's astute parting indictment, and she is looking somewhat suspicious. Her voting pattern, though, if I remember rightly, is unexceptional. I don't hold with voting patterns especially. I may well join the movement against her should my Diamond case draw an utter blank again. I think her coolness and comparative reticence are quite inherent, but she's sometimes more choleric as an innocent.

I'm exhausted. Back with more later.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Later she repeats that she thinks that Roa is innocent and thinks that Macalaure would have reacted differently to Di's vote for him if he was a penguin.

I never voted for Mac....

[Diamond18]

Well, I must go, and there really hasn't been enough posting since I voted to give me any solid reason to retract. I believe the voting at the moment is:

Mac --> Eonwe
Diamond --> Spawn

A pity that Mac will not be around toDay to retract, for if you'll note the TiG thread, Eonwe is no longer with us. Oh well. I leave the deciding of fates in the hands of the rest of you lot.

[Encaitare]

Roa_Aoife

Game 1: WWJ3
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 5
Posts: 47
Avg. PPD: 9.4

Game 2: WWJ4
Role: Wolf
Death: killed by village on Day 3
Posts: 23
Avg. PPD: 7.7

Game 3: WWJ5
Role: Seer
Death: survived to the end (Day 5)
Posts: 36
Avg. PPD: 7.2

Game 4: WWJ7
Role: Ordo
Death: survived to the end (Day 7)
Posts: 56
Avg. PPD: 8

Game 5: WW20
Role: wereorc
Death: killed by village on Day 4
Posts: 67
Avg. PPD: 16.75

Game 6: WWJ8
Role: Ordo
Death: departed village on Day 3
Posts: 22
Avg. PPD: 7.3

Game 6: WW21
Role: Evil Wizard
Death: killed on Day 6
Posts: 70
Avg. PPD:11.7

Current Game:
Day: 3 (4 1/4 hours left)
Posts: 46
Avg. PPD: 15.3

Originally Posted by Spawn

Encai hopes to do something else later than to defend herself, and so she starts posting WW statistics. Looks very nice and helpful, but she doesn't really comment on them herself and as I said, they lack important information, so this brings to mind an attempt to look helpful while hiding some penguinesque features.

I myself am not sure if it will be helpful. However, many people were wondering about other players' posting habits, and here they are, accurate to within a few posts, for everyone to see. I'll go back after I've done everyone and look for patterns and inconsistencies.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

It's not easy to try to deal with two Days' material in 24 hours, I tell you that. *sigh* Now, about Valier and Diamond...

As has been pointed out, it was funny how Valier right away said that Boro is definitely a WP. She suspected almost everyone else, too, but didn't directly say them to be WPs. Enca was the only one that Valier didn't accuse right away, but said that she doesn't know if Enca is guilty or not.

I, too, found this odd:

Originally Posted by Valier about phantom

The things you say sound good, so people tend to follow you, and adding the arrow again to your posts, suggests you are false in some way.

The arrow issue was explained to Valier already in last village, so why to make a fuss about it again...

All in all, by reading Valier's posts I think she is usually more independent. She makes decisions based on gut feelings, states whom she suspects and votes. Now she seems to be trying to sway and take contact with other villagers more.

Diamond, then. Late on Day 1 she said that I feel innocent, but on Day 2 before she hadn't done "any sort of analyse" of my posts she said that she may vote for me. It was a bit same thing with Valier. Di said that "Valier seems her usual self, nothing much to comment on, could be anything", and later that she had a little nagging feeling about her among many others, but on Day 2 she just nominated Valier to one of her four possible lynchees without really explaining it. Oh well. It seemed to be pretty much the same list that the bunch of people whom Boro thought innocent.

Di has posted those summaries a lot and I was honoured to receive one, too, although I wonder why she left my suspicions about Mac being a WP and Jenny being the Cobbler out. I tried looking at Di's other analyses if she left something out of them, too, but they seem pretty sound to me.

Di's reaction to Lalaith asking if she should reveal who the innocent is whom she dreamed of is interesting. She highlights her own innocence twice, but advices Lalaith not to reveal the dream unless the dreamee is about to get lynched. Other than these things she's behaved much like I would have expected from an innocent Di.

Originally Posted by Di

I never voted for Mac....

Apologies, I meant Jenny.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Spawn

As has been pointed out, it was funny how Valier right away said that Boro is definitely a WP. She suspected almost everyone else, too, but didn't directly say them to be WPs. Enca was the only one that Valier didn't accuse right away, but said that she doesn't know if Enca is guilty or not.

*Sigh* This was my first post of Day one!! This one was pretty much all in fun!! As you can see if you look more closely....Roa as the EW for example.

The arrow issue was explained to Valier already in last village, so why to make a fuss about it again...

OK OK I get it !! I still don't like when people put stuff in their posts, but I understand NOW that TP puts them in all his posts.

All in all, by reading Valier's posts I think she is usually more independent. She makes decisions based on gut feelings, states whom she suspects and votes. Now she seems to be trying to sway and take contact with other villagers more.

Yes I agree with you on this. I am usually a bit more independent, but in every other village no one would rally with me when I had a strong gut feeling on someone, so this time round I thought I would try and be more helpful, by listening and considering other peoples suspicions as well as my gut feelings. Oh and I always wait till the end of the day to vote, so that is not odd for me.

[Firefoot]

Okay, I'm back and should be around until the deadline.

What I'm starting to wonder is if I was a lot more tired than I thought I was when I put my theories together. I really did think they were good theories. But maybe the five hours of sleep I got that day wasn't sufficient to put together something sensible.

I don't know anymore.

[Encaitare]

the phantom

(I have not looked forward to doing yours, tp, as it is bound to be just as extensive as Firefoot's...)

Game 1: WW1
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 4
Posts: 17
Avg. PPD: 5.7

Game 2: WW2
Role: Wolf
Death: survived to the end (Day 5)
Posts: 22
Avg. PPD: 4.4

Game 3: WW3
Role: Ordo
Death: lynched by villagers on Day 3
Posts: 37
Avg. PPD: 12.3

Game 4: WW4
Role: Shirriff
Death: died on Night 3
Posts: 33
Avg. PPD: 16.5

Game 5: WW9
Role: Seer
Death: killed by wolves on Night 3
Posts: 19
Avg. PPD: 9.5

Game 6: WW10
Role: wolf
Death: survived to the end (Day 6)
Posts: 43
Avg. PPD: 7.2

Game 7: WW21
Role: Hunter
Death: died on Night 3
Posts: 18
Avg. PPD: 9

Current Game:
Day: 3 (4 hours left)
Posts: 22
Avg. PPD: 7.3

Well, compared to Firefoot's that actually wasn't so bad..

Spawn's next.

[Anguirel]

Firefoot, perhaps I'm missing a good point, and I will examine your posts again for my own benefit. (Groan.) It's just your contribution is usually more...obviously helpful.

Now some more.

Spawnowen-is to Diamond what Diamond is to me-a pet lynching project. I think though that Diamond may have more success than I. Still, spawn is much more on the ball now. Her contribution in the case against Valier was just as important as Diamond's-am I getting it right?-so perhaps in fairness I should suspect her too, but she seems to be playing things straighter. Suspects Macalaure, seriously off the beaten path and so giving her some cred. Talking of which...

Macalaure-yes, I agree that his early career and phantom's innocence made it look like he was acting alone. But we ought to watch him, not dismiss him out of hand. He does have ye olde beginner's lock. He might just be in concert with Valier, I suppose; she did abruptly stop suspecting him. Quite outlandish, I admit. But fiendish newcomers clawing to an easy victory have been known before.

Roa-I get the malaise when approaching her that affects me when dealing with the especially loud. Like verbal earache. But I'm going to press on. Yesterday I regarded her as next most worth an Inquisition after Diamond. She does go for elaborately documented and apparently impartial, fairminded cases. She criticises me, incidentally, for openly looking for reasons to blame people. She has a point, but that's not quite what I do, though it sometimes looks like it: I

1. Feel "Urrgh-what if?-look at such and such a minor thing...hmmm"
2. State my fear
3. See if there's any truth in it

The problem being that I rarely articulate stage 1 and sometimes leapfrog elegantly over stage 3. And land in the mud.

Naria-till recently, no evidence, really, except vague kudos for, in the end, acting to save Lalaith. Recently analysis which still doesn't reveal much, but does show complete trust in...Diamond! Argh! It's a conspiracy! Also accuses me of making no sense. How gajopyiferous.

Eonwe-apparently out-haven't yet seen why or how myself

Blast. I'm missing somebody. Oh yes, phantom, no real need to cover him.

[Anguirel]

Oh and Enca, while I realise it must be an effort and applaud your diligence I don't really find your number-joggling all that helpful either. I feel posting-style to be far more revealing in its consistency than posting quantity, so often at the whims of RL.

Sorry to say something so pious. But those seemingly endless stats are getting me down-must be tiring you out too-and I don't really see their purpose...

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Ang

Sorry to say something so pious. But those seemingly endless stats are getting me down-must be tiring you out too-and I don't really see their purpose...

I figured I could go for a different approach, seeing as there are multiple post analyses of people and while it's great that we've gotten a wolf and the cobbler, they don't seem to be much of a help now (at least, not to me). If a lot of people feel that the stats are not useful, then I'll stop since there's no point in cluttering up the page.

Thank you for your frankness.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Valier

OK OK I get it !! I still don't like when people put stuff in their posts, but I understand NOW that TP puts them in all his posts.

Yes, indeed I always put arrows in my posts. Arrows + my avie have been my calling card since pretty much my first day on the Downs. It makes it easy to find my posts.

Here's a kinda-sorta list of doom.

I'm not saying these people are innocent, but for various reasons I don't want to vote for any of them today-
Spawn
Firefoot
Mac
Roa
Diamond
Valier
the phantom (obviously)

So that leaves for voting-
Anguirel
Enca
Naria

It's pretty much a guarantee I'll choose from those four.

[Encaitare]

dancing spawn of ungoliant

Game 1: WW2
Role: Wolf
Death: survived to the end (Day 5)
Posts: 8
Avg. PPD: 1.6

Game 2: WW4
Role: Ordo
Death: killed on Night 4
Posts: 12
Avg. PPD: 4

Game 3: WW7
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 4
Posts: 28
Avg. PPD: 9.3

Game 4: WW8
Role: Ordo
Death: survived to the end (Day 7)
Posts: 38
Avg. PPD: 5.4

Game 5: WW10
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by victorious wolves on Day 6
Posts: 28
Avg. PPD: 4.7

Game 6: WW14
Role: Wolf
Death: killed by village on Day 1
Posts: 3
Avg. PPD: 3

Game 7: WW15
Role: Hero (equivalent of a wolf in this reversed game)
Death: killed on Night 4 by victorious wolves (equivalent of villagers)
Posts: 17
Avg. PPD: 5.7

Game 8: WW17
Role: Ordo
Death: survived to the end (Day 7)
Posts: 35
Avg. PPD: 5

Game 9: WW18
Role: Ordo
Death: killed by wolves on Night 4
Posts: 18
Avg. PPD: 6

Game 10: WW19
Role: Seer
Death: Killed on Night 3
Posts: 17
Avg. PPD: 8.5

Game 11: WW20
Role: Ordo
Death: Killed on Night 3
Posts: 8
Avg. PPD: 4

Game 12: WWJ8
Role: wereduck
Death: killed by village on Day 2
Posts: 12
Avg. PPD: 6

Game 13: WW21
Role: Hunter
Death: killed by wolves on Night 7
Posts: 32
Avg. PPD: 5.3

Current Game
Day: 3 (3 1/4 hours left)
Posts: 8
Avg. PPD: 2.7

Ok, this will probably be the last stats analysis of its kind unless someone else feels that it's helpful. I have to depart shortly, but will be back later to vote -- I have no idea yet for whom.

BTW, phantom, Eonwe is already out of the game (check the TiG-J thread) so don't waste a vote on him.

[Anguirel]

phantom me old aubergine, don't vote for Eonwe-he's given up, which I suppose was probably the decent thing to do in the circumstances...

[the phantom]

BTW, phantom, Eonwe is already out of the game

If he's a Penguin, ha ha!

If he's not- awww.

[Anguirel]

Would a Penguin bother to go through the palaver of withdrawing? I doubt it, myself. Still, I suppose we have a very remote chance of ridding ourselves of the Penguins this evening.

[the phantom]

A whole 9 posts by a whole 3 people in the last 3 hours! It's utter chaos! I can't handle so many posts at one time!



The votes currently stand at-
Mac for Already-dead-Eonwe
Diamond for Spawn

[Anguirel]

Lord, things are slow today.

Well, I must vote now-might retract in Diamond's disfavour later, but at the mo I feel driving a Valier style campaign might in the longterm have less purgative effects than testing my next suspect, suspected by Diamond, as a touchstone for the latter's guilt.

So it's going to have to be

++ENCA

She was attacked by Lalaith whose judgement, even when non-Dream-guided, I have a certain amount of respect for. Though I don't on balance think her numerate escapades too bad, there are plenty of other signs picked up previously. I also am still uncertain about Valier's guilt and, to be frank, think Enca's potential bandwagon one of the few able to withstand the anti Valier movement.

My thoughts though still remain essentially concentrated on Audrey, Dimwe, whatever.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Ang

I also am still uncertain about Valier's guilt and, to be frank, think Enca's potential bandwagon one of the few able to withstand the anti Valier movement

I wasn't aware there was a movement.

[Anguirel]

Six votes in an electorate of twelve isn't merely a movement, m'dear.

It's practically a Crusade! I'm not sure quite so many will coalesce this time, but still...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Well, thanks Encai, even though those statistics won't in my opinion tell much in the WP hunt, it was interesting to read them. However, you might have done yourself a disservice by spending so much time on them. We haven't got your own opinions toDay which isn't good.

Now that Ang has started talking again, my suspicions of him have partly returned, but considering how Boro acted regarding him makes me hesitate. When I look at Boro's post #33, I'm most worried about Firefoot and Naria. It's interesting, too, that Boromir refrained from giving his thoughts about Roa in that post, but just explained what a theory is. Right now Roa isn't very high in my suspicion list, though.

Originally Posted by Boro

Firefoot, if innocent can greatly benefit the village, if penguin would probably be our demise. But we shouldn't lynch a player like Firefoot on Day 1, unless she wants to tell us a little secret that only 2 other people know?

That smiley is worrysome, too.

Other than that, from Day 1 one interesting thing about Ff was her reaction to me saying: "When I return, I hope to have time to take a look at Firefoot and Roa - and sir Anguirel, perhaps."

"That caught my eye too. Actually, more interesting to me is that Spawn brought up Roa and myself in the first place at that point... I only had one post, and it wasn't exactly a very weighty one either. Not exactly much to look at." ~Firefoot

Yes. All those who had posted at that point had made just one or two posts, so I could have chosen anyone and it would still have been the same situation. Ff is expressing her point quite coolly, but if she's a WP she knows not to overreact, and I think an innocent villager would probably have left it without a comment.

As to Naria, I keep forgetting that she's in this village.

Originally Posted by Boro

Naria I don't know at this point. Naria seems to be one of those silent contributors. Doesn't have to post a lot (unlike me) to have solid input and contribution to the village. I will be expecting to see more substance instead of just, hi I'm tired bye, but in this early going there's no reason to cry penguin.

Boromir speaks in a quite positive tone about Naria even though she barely said anything. I think someone (phantom?) already mentioned that, so sorry if I'm repeating things. Also the choice of words, "in this early going there's no reason to cry penguin", is a bit dubious.

Ah well, back to rereading.