TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Firefoot... Seer? That was completely unexpected.

Here's what I thought: Boromir was the Seer.

I thought the same, tgwbs, because he spoke so definitely about his suspicion of Formendacil. However, he isn't, and that leaves a whole different interpretation of the same facts wide open. What if Boromir is the remaining wolf, who deliberately voted for Formy, a known wolf, all along to get us to trust him? Then his accusation of Enca would be a false trail! I know that goes against my own premise of the four who voted for Anguirel, but as I don't know definitely who's innocent or guilty, anything is possible.

I still have to go through Firefoot's posts and find out what clues there are to her being a Seer. How could the wolf recognize her?

[the guy who be short]

I too will be going through her posts. However, I find it likely that the wolf had no idea she was the Seer - Firefoot, morm and LMP were the Three Angels, so to speak, whom nobody suspected. With LMP gone, either Firefoot or morm was going to die last night. The Wolf just got lucky.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I think it very likely that the wolf was after the seer - I would be, if I were a wolf! After all, the other gifted villagers were taken care of, and if the seer had come out with information, she would have been dangerous. This makes me wonder all the more whether Boromir was trying to play with our minds by posing as the seer, either to draw out the real one or to get the rest of us to gang up on an innocent villager.

[mormegil]

Okay I'm back and though I was in bed I slept very little I spent some time thinking and I have a strategy that I want to present. I will explain it later but whatever you do don't vote yet!

[Boromir88]

On how I knew Formendacil was a wolf...

Well, I didn't really "know" per se, but I had a strong feeling. My Day 1 vote was more or less just random. Day 2, I didn't think Shelob was guilty and no one really changed my mind as to who a wolf was, so I stuck with Formendacil. Day 3, I believed (and I hope he doesn't mind) mormegil was the Seer. One because he did catch onto Cailin, and two he came strong after Formendacil. So I believed he was the Seer and dreamed of Formendacil which kept me to stick with Formendacil.

As I said before, go ahead and lynch me Estelyn, it'll just be a wasted day and I can't believe this village is so stupid to still consider me a wolf. As of right now I stand by that Enca is the last wolf, who tried to turn voting against me yesterday.

Honestly, you have to ask yourself would a wolf vote for another wolf 3 straight days and be so vital in a fellow wolf downfall? Especially early in the game when Formendacil was not attracting much suspicion at all, just from me? If you think so, then you people are just crazy.

Estelyn is now popping into my head as another wolf. Who I think is trying to conjure up a theory to get me hanged, because I was so crucial in another wolf's demise perhaps?

I'll have you know that I haven't been wrong yet, only on the fact that I believed mormegil was the Seer, and not Firefoot. Which might seem incriminating to some extent, but if you want to get rid of someone who is a good judge on who's innocent and who's not, then it's your own loss.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Estelyn Telcontar

What if Boromir is the remaining wolf, who deliberately voted for Formy, a known wolf, all along to get us to trust him?

*cough* Then I'd have been right all along with my Boromir bashing? I'd only just begun to think that he was the Seer based on his insistence at Weremendacil. But then again, I was a little worried about his talk about never assuming the innocence of anybody, and yet saying that he pretty much trusted the Innocent Three. Way to be a hypocrite, no?

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Mr. Underhill - I'm not too concerned about him. His posts seem to have been written in good faith, and some of his comments, though brief, have been very shrewd. I'm not going to discount him, but I think there are several people who are far more suspicious than he is right now.

Originally Posted by morm

This was her last post about Mister Underhill it would seem to say that he's innocent and that she dreamt of him.

Quite the contrary, she says "I'm not going to discount him" which makes me think she didn't dream of him.

Originally Posted by mormy

Edit: cross post with Fea....Why did you forget Encai? Also I think Underhill is cleared by what I've said. It's nice to know that we can't have 2 wolves working together now though.

Because it was almost 2:00 AM? Okay, Encai: Day One: votes innocent (Ang), suspects guilty (Cailin), gives decent strategy. Day Two: votes innocent (Shelob) which saves me, suspects innocent plus two unknowns. Day Three: votes Boromir, who may or may not be a really ballsy wolf. The biggest thing to bother me about Encai is that she saved me. I have no idea why she did it. I won't deny being relieved about it, because who actually wants to die in these villages? When you die, your spirit watches helpless as the village stumbles around, and the worst thing is, usually the second you die, you know who at least one wolf is.

Here's Firefoot's say on the matter: she didn't dream of Encai. "I haven't seen anything to strongly suggest her guilt" which means she hadn't dreamt yet and "I'd like to have a close look at her tomorrow" which I take to mean she planned on it.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

What's to be said? She makes me nervous, but I do feel like she was set up. I'm not so sure that there isn't something in the Fea/Encai theory

This changed my mind. I don't think she dreamt of me, or she'd have said "As I'm seeing evidence that Fea might have been set up, I think this theory is a bit far-fetched" or something like that. I love how she uses the word see. I didn't notice it until I started looking for it. Could somebody be a dove and find all of her uses of it while I'm away at my [wenching] classes? I won't be back until mid-afternoon, like I mentioned before I went to bed. I'm surprised I woke up early enough to post this, to be honeset.

EDIT: cross-post with Boromir.

Especially early in the game when Formendacil was not attracting much suspicion at all, just from me? If you think so, then you people are just crazy.

Surely everyone's heard by now that I'm "Bonkers as Conkers"? Crazy works. Especially after logic fails.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I have a strategy that I want to present. I will explain it later but whatever you do don't vote yet!

I also have a strategy idea, morm, and remembering the one you had one Day, it could be that we're thinking along the same lines. I'm not sure how wise it is to come out early with it, so I'm waiting a bit as well.

In the meantime, I'd like to present my percentage list of the remaining players:

100% innocent - me (The only one of whom I absolutely know)

90% innocent - Underhillo (reasons given above)

80% innocent - tgwbs (for seemingly good reasoning so far)

80% innocent - mormegil (also for seemingly good reasoning so far)

50% innocent/guilty - Fea (just because she's too confusing to get a grasp on)

very suspicious - Encaitare (for the reasons I gave yesterDay)

highly suspicious - Boromir88 (for the reasons given toDay)


more to come...

[Boromir88]

Ok some further thoughts...

I think it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of me. She never jumped onto the growing suspicion of me, just said I was playing stupidly and not focusing on the task. Also, I was under much suspicion under Day 1, it would be logical to assume that either Day 2, or 3 she dreamed of me.

Sorry for the let down in everyone thinking I was the Seer. If it makes any sense I was trying to disguise myself as the Seer, to sort of shield the real Seer (who I thought was definitely mormegil and I can see that was wrong). I had put my life on the line thinking that mormegil was the Seer and that he dreamed of Formendacil. Basically thinking if Form's a wolf, I'm innocent, if not I'm a dead man. But no matter what I do it just seems like no one takes my innocence.

[Boromir88]

Hmm, I seem to be cross-posting with Estelyn who thinks I'm guilty for some reason?

Need I say I brought down a wolf, while you were crucial in Shelob's lynching.

Actually, I'm almost about to say just lynch me, so I'll be out of your hair if no one takes my innocence. I'm growing more and more suspicious of Estelyn, who sees that I'm a threat to wolves and wants to get rid of me. So, hey lynch me, but who here has been the best judge on who's innocent and who's a wolf? But, lynch me, if that's what you guys want, I can think of no other way to get through to you people that I'm gosh darn innocent here.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all. I would be a poor player (and I hope that despite being a first time gamer here, I'm not stupid) if I took your words at face value. You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!

Yes, I was involved in Shelob's lynching, but at that time (second day, with little evidence to go on) I thought I had reason to suspect her. The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...)

You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor

Quite the contrary, she says "I'm not going to discount him" which makes me think she didn't dream of him

Feanor I'm not sure why you are being so obtuse but please read this again posted by Firefoot in post 210

Originally Posted by Firefoot

My top suspect is still Formendacil, though I'm starting to think that a connection between him and Underhill is too far-fetched. Underhill also seems to have been very consistent. He's starting to drop off my radar a bit. So one of the things I will be looking for is who else Formen might be associated with, as well as other possible pairs of wolves. At this point, there should be some clues to who our wolves are, whether in voting or somewhere else.

I believe this was her first post of the day and up until this point she strongly suspected Mister Underhill but now she doesn't suspect him much? Why the sudden change? She still suspects Formendacil though. My theory after quickly reading all of her posts is that Night 1 she dreamt of me, Night 2 Formendacil and Night 3 Mister Underhill. It would make sense if you read her post to think of her dreams as those people in that order. So no I do not believe, as you do now too, that she dreamt of you.

My plan will be rolled out shortly and I believe, if implemented, will be a great value to the village.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of me.

I disagree entirely. She said that either you're playing a bold game of wolf or you're playing stupidly as an innocent. That either, along with giving 50% likelihood of you being lupine means that there was no dream, or she'd have leant one way or the other.

Though you guys are being tight-lipped about your plan, here's mine: double-lynch Boromir and Encai. The two top suspects, from what I see. If if we're wrong on both, there will be enough villagers left to still have survival chances. Mind you, I think one of the two is a wolf... but I could always be wrong. I keep doing that these days.

Off to the Psychology of Wenching. Ta ta.

[Boromir88]

Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all.

I'm grateful for the compliment. I'll have you know I tell it like it is. I tell you what I think. You can either take what I say and accept it or not. I can say it's your own loss (unless you're the last wolf) if I'm lynched.

You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!

Bringing down another wolf, if anything isn't good enough?

Enough with these crazy and ludicrous theories about wolves backstabbing eachother. Sometimes the facts are right in front of your face and you're too busy concentrating on wild and whacky theories to see who the real villains are.

The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...)

Or a good judge of character and what werewolves do.

I didn't think Anguirel and Eomer were wolves even when voting for me, because wolves don't typically vote early and Anguirel just picked a random person who happened to be me and on Day 1, that's really all you can do.

I didn't think Shelob or Lhuna were wolves because they were quiet, and wolves aren't usually quiet. I've learned not to vote for quiet people. You got to watch out for the ones that don't say a lot, but say a good amount and try to mold opinion or bandwagon. And often flip-flop to adjust to the public opinion.

I think Fea is being set up. While it's possible that she may be a wolf doing a bold bluff wolves love to set people up. As they tried to do on Day 1 to me. (by killing Eomer). I think Fea is being set up because coming into the closing of the day her name was being thrown in there with Encai's and she'd be an easy target to go after the next day. Luckily needless to say, I stepped up and said she was being set up. (Though again she still may be a wolf).

You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.

Umm...maybe because I'm innocent and as far as I'm concerned have been the best judge to who's a wolf and who's not.

Having said all this, I'm now cooled in my suspicion of Estelyn. Her concerns seem geniune to me. I will give you this, crazy theories are fun to think of, and trying to catch a bluff, but going with your gut feeling and the obvious "wolf" traits is what gets the villagers to victory.

[the guy who be short]

In his first few posts Formy argues against morm and his strategies. I count this as further proof of morm's innocence.

He then goes on to say he has no reason to suspect anybody, but for lack of any evidence, will suspect Ang, LMP and morm. Again, morm is lumped with two innocents.

On the first Day he votes for Mr U. I'm willing to interpret this as meaning Mr U isn't a wolf.

It is difficult to analyse Formen's first long post. It more or less says "I think everybody is innocent."

Fea and Mister Underhill top the list, with Lhuna and Encai sitting somewhat lower. After that, I think it either TGWBS or Boromir, but those two register very low on the suspicion scale...

It's hard to know what to make of this. I am quite sold on the Borowolf theory now, and that looks like Formen is trying to mention Boro without being suspicious enough to lynch him.

Unlike some others, my suspicion regarding Mr. Underhill is not waning by his greater, and wiser, notices of today, rather, they are increased by them. He is definitely clever enough to be playing a double game, and that's the sort of thing a Werewolf would do.

I'm becoming more and more certain of Mr U's innocence.

Fea and Mister Underhill as the most likely suspects

Fea... innocent?

The really difficult thing about analysing anything Form says is his ambiguity. He claims somebody looks suspicious for one reason, but then innocent for another.

Wolves?:
Fea

Probably Wolves?:
Mister Underhill,
Encaitare

Relatively Neutral?
Lhunardawen,
Boromir,
Estelyn,
TGWBS,

Mostly Innocent:
Firefoot,
Mormegil

Maybe I'm just looking for it, but I keep seeing all this as pointing to Boro's wolvery. It's possible that Enca could be the other wolf, but I doubt it is Fea or Mr U.

He votes for Fea, making her seem innocent again.


That was incredibly ambiguous. Now, as I see it, either Fea is a cunning wolf, Boro is a cunning wolf, or Enca is a wolf. Mr U I doubt.

[Boromir88]

One thing that I would like to hear from Boromir is what was the comment about if you die Encai will certainly die too? Please explain.~mormegil

I was more kidding. On Day 1 Anguirel and Eomer both voted for me. Anguirel was hanged, Eomer was killed. So I went along and just said people who vote for me end up dying because they're voting for a known innocent and that's something you shouldn't do.

Fea, I disagree with the double-lynching. One because, I'm not a wolf. Two, Encai who I think is the most wolfish one may not be. We have a strong advantage 6-1, if we do a double lynching of myself and Encai by the next day the villagers will be up 3-1. Still an advantage but if you don't catch that last wolf, it's over, villagers lose. No, a double-lynching is something I think a wolf would want in this situation.

Hey, everyone thinks I'm a wolf. It's funny how morm, firefoot, lmp find a wolf and they're praised as saviours. I catch a wolf and it would make me a backstabber to Formendacil, if I was a wolf. I'm going to say...LYNCH ME, so I'm out of everyone's problems, and you can get to see who the real wolves are. I do say I strongly disagree with Fea's plan of a double-lynching.

[the guy who be short]

I agree with Feanor's plan.

[mormegil]

Boromir I hope I can believe you that you were trying to pretend to be the seer, I for one bought into it. I think the reason I bought into it though was because I believed Encai to be guilty, seemingly the wolf did not which, if you are innocent, would have a clearing effect upon Encai if you follow me.

My plan is simple and it follows along with what Fea said, I think we should do a double lynching today orchestrated by Mister Underhill and me. I use us for two reasons we are innocent and live in areas that allow us to vote the last minute. I would recommend that we choose two people and get them lynched together. I use this strategy because now that there aren't any gifteds left it's most likely that known innocents will die next that is Mister Underhill and me. So we need to capitalize on these two nights where we will have innocents with us. We are currently 7 villagers 2 known innocents so 5 total if we kill two that happen to not be a wolf we will be down to 4 and can do a possible double lynching the next day. We may actually be able to spot the wolf trying to influence the vote or abstain. This is our best shot.

Now it is important that we pick correctly today so as to avoid a difficult situation tomorrow. As for myself I am convinced of Underhill's innocence and it will be difficult to convince me otherwise.

[Boromir88]

No no no, Fea's plan can be a total disaster. I'm certainly not a wolf. Encai may be but she may not be. If she isn't entering tomorrow you're up 3-1, don't catch a wolf then it's over. We have to realize if neither of us our wolves you have one more day to find who the wolf is. If you don't do it YOU LOSE! Lynch me today and you get an extra day to see who the lone wolf is.

If you lynch me today, tomorrow you'll be up 4-1 and have another day to find who the wolves are. So again, I sacrifice myself, because no one seems to think I'm innocent and the only way to get through you knuckle-heads will be my death. So lynch me, and you have an extra day to find out who the real wolf is.

[the guy who be short]

I'm willing to go with that. I also support Fea's two suspects, namely, Boromir and Encai.

[mormegil]

Well let it be said though that while we want to catch the wolf in this double lynching attempt at least one innocent will die. This means that any true innocent should be willing to give his/her life for the good of the village. I'm not sure I agree with those two in conjunction. I see it as if Encai is innocent Boro could be a wolf and therefore lynched the next day and vice versa too. Now I would like to see Fea or TGWBS on the list too or possibly Esty.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to come flat out I will do whatever it takes to stop a double-lynching, unless someone here can convince me otherwise.

Ok, so let's say Encai's a wolf, and we do the double lynching we win! Yay!

But let's take the consequences and think if she isn't. Ok, so right now it's me and Encai. If Encai's not a wolf you will be down, 3-1, getting one more day to catch a wolf.

Which may seem easy to go after, but it could be more difficult then you think. Who would be the last wolf if Encai doesnt' turn out to be. Fea, the one who proposed the double-lynching? Morm or tgwbs who jumped onto the idea? See what I'm saying. There's disaster just simply waiting if there's a double-lynching. We have a strong advantage in numbers, let's keep it that way.

I will sacrifice myself, if so desired, so you guys can finally see that I'm innocent, and all of you are fooled by your crazy theories of my williness.

[Mister Underhill]

Day One

1. Anguirel - B88
2. Esty - Shelob (innocent)
3. tgwbs - Shelob (innocent)
4. (W) Cailin - Eomer (Hunter)
5. Eomer - B88
6. B88 - Form (W)
7. (W) Form - Mr. U
8. Shelob - Anguirel (innocent)
9. mormegil - Cailin (W)
10. Firefoot - Cailin (W)
11. lmp - Cailin (W)
12. Enca - Anguirel (innocent)
13. Mr. U - Anguirel (innocent)
14. Fea - B88
15. Lhuna - Anguirel (innocent)


Day Two

1. Lhuna - Mr. U
2. Shelob - Lhuna (innocent)
3. tgwbs - Shelob (innocent)
4. B88 - Form (W)
5. Esty - Shelob (innocent)
6. Fea - lmp (Ranger)
7. morm - Fea
8. (W) Form - Mr. U
9. Firefoot - Shelob (innocent)
10. Mr. U - Fea
11. lmp - Fea
12. Enca - Shelob (innocent)


Day Three

1. tgwbs - Lhuna (innocent)
2. B88 - Form (W)
3. (W) Form - Fea
4. Enca - B88
5. Firefoot - Form (W)
6. Esty - Enca
7. Fea - Mr. U
8. Mr. U - Form (W)
9. morm - Enca

Here's the voting order and known roles where appropriate. It goes without saying that I know I'm innocent here, but I've only listed roles that are undisputably known by the death of the villager.

Formendacil, a known wolf, voted for me twice and only backed off when it seemed some momentum was building against me. The way I read this is that he helped lead the building of suspicion of me over the first two days, then didn't want to be linked to lynching an innocent if I went down on the third day. Is his vote for Fea significant? People were backing off of Fea all around, so this was a pretty safe vote. He could have cast it towards a fellow wolf to provide cover for them both. Or alternatively, it might have been a safe vote for an innocent who has been dogged by suspicion. Fea, as ever, is shrouded in controversy and confusion. I'll get back to her presently.

tgwbs has had the misfortune of having voted for a known innocent three days running. That should bring him up on anyone's radar. Offsetting this is his habit of voting early. Hard to say what's up here. It's decent strategy for a wolf to vote early to avoid being involved in controversial voting decisions. Not sure what to make of this, but I haven't been looking too closely at tg and now I'm thinking that I should. Even if he's innocent, he's been consistently wrong, which means we ought to consider clearing his top suspect, Boromir.

Esty's had a shaky time of it, too, but overall I haven't seen much to suspect in her. I have to reciprocate her comments on me -- I have a feeling she'd be more involved if she were a wolf. She's been off most people's radar for most of the game, which makes me a little uneasy, but I've seen in her posts echoes of my own confusion as a n00b villager, so she remains low on my list.

morm: Pretty sure he's innocent. Like Boromir, I had him pegged on Day Two as the Seer.

...which leads me to buy into Boromir's story. If he was posing as the Seer to screen morm, it worked; by the end of Day Three, I had changed my mind and thought he was the Seer. Could this all be a bluff? Maybe. But for now his story rings true to me.

Fea's back at the top of my watch-list again. I backed off of her early on Day Three in part because I thought morm was the Seer, and he had backed off of her (#211). She's the only villager who has voted for a gifted (that we know of), and her other votes have been relatively safe bandwagon votes. Also notably cast an important vote on Day One and has seemingly been laying low voting-wise since then. She's accusing me still when the evidence is finally starting to vindicate me. She's also reaching hard to convince us that Firefoot dreamed of her, when Firefoot's comments hardly seem conclusive:

Post #252 -- Of a list of three, including Fea, who had received votes: 'I could (at least theoretically) see myself voting for any of those three (or others) at this point.' See also post #256, especially a mention of Fea in her Lhuna comments: 'I know [Lhuna] lives in a different time zone, and I might feel a little bad in voting for her, but she makes me nervous too - not in a Fea-nervous way, but in an "I'm slipping under the radar now" nervous way.' On their own, both comments are pretty innocuous, but why would she cast even offhand suspicion on someone she knew to be innocent? Fea, you may be innocent, but my read on Firefoot's comments is that she did not dream of you.

Enca is also still a top suspect. She has voted for two known innocents and the one villager who pegged a wolf on all three of his votes. Cast the controversial vote on Day One that has made her a suspect ever since.

Right now, Fea and Enca top my watch-list.

I'd like to get a closer look at tgwbs.

**Not quite an edit, but while I've been composing this, the posts have been flying. Boromir has a point about the double-lynching, but on the other hand, if we kill an innocent we narrow down the chances of the wolf getting the cursed villager tonight. Would we know if the cursed villager had already been lynched, or can we assume he or she is still among us? Maybe a more experienced villager can help me out here.

My top suspects remain Enca and Fea. Boromir is a maybe, but right now, as I said above, his story rings true. I'd need more convincing to go for him and leave one of the other two alive if we want to try to orchestrate the double-L -- which I'm also not completely convinced is the best plan.

[mormegil]

No we don't know if the cursed villager has been lynched yet. The only way we know the cursed villager has been killed is if the wolves kill him.

If I were to pick who to double lynch I would definately choose Fea and then either Encai or TGWBS.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

She's the only villager who has voted for a gifted (that we know of),

I explained exactly what my suspicions of LMP were before and when I voted. My word stands.

and her other votes have been relatively safe bandwagon votes.

Hey, hey, hey, I started those bandwagons! You can't accuse me for jumping onto a safe-spot when I was the one insisting that we shouldn't drop our suspicions of people so easily! You can't claim me for hiding out in safety when I was bright and early trying to convince people to look harder on B88, and later on, to notice the sheer volume of suspicion against Underhill. Day three, I was the only one to vote Underhill. That's not bandwagoning, if you're the only one voting. I'll readily admit that I really wanted B88 dead on Day one, which is why I tied that vote. I was really annoyed when Lhuna showed up and broke the tie, because it meant that the one person I was most worried about was still alive. But leading a charge doesn't count as joining a crusade already in progress. Surely you know that.

seemingly been laying low voting-wise since then

Seeming though it may be, two votes were for those that I thoroughly suspected, one was early because I had obscene amounts of [wenching] homework to do that I didn't actually ever get finished (why don't you try reading a hundred pages out of a Japanese novel, reading twenty pages of a psych review, and then writing a three page paper on it in a format you've never used, all in one night, and see how likely you are to get back on the internet before 1:30 AM).

She's accusing me still when the evidence is finally starting to vindicate me.

Sure I am. I'm just like that. I like to be an individual, you know? Surely you don't expect me to continuously follow the crowd? If I did that, you'd cry wolf. I decided long ago that catering to the crowd's whims doesn't help anybody, so I may as well try and get lynched whoever I most want dead.

She's also reaching hard to convince us that Firefoot dreamed of her, when Firefoot's comments hardly seem conclusive:

Hold up, I posted already that I changed my mind due to something I hadn't read closely enough before. I'm certain I wasn't dreamt of given her ambiguity of phrasiology.

Would we know if the cursed villager had already been lynched, or can we assume he or she is still among us? Maybe a more experienced villager can help me out here.

The villager is either still alive, or has already been lynched. If the wolves get him/her, s/he turns into another wolf. If we lynch, we don't know 'til the end whether or not s/he still lives.

Originally Posted by mormegil

If I were to pick who to double lynch I would definately choose Fea and then either Encai or TGWBS.

Hey, what ever happened to "it was a set up" and "I'm leaning toward her innocence"? I'd like to know what changed your mind.

PS: this post, though unexpected, comes from my teacher cancelling one of my classes. It gave me a random hour that I'm not at all opposed to.

[mormegil]

Yes Fea but still something isn't sitting right and you're our resident enigma and finding out for sure would clear up some air.

Edit: I might add Fea that sometimes going with the crowd is helpful when the plan is good.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, since the double lynching idea has been outed now, let me say that I was thinking the same thing. I have two top suspects, Boro and Enca. One of them is innocent for sure, yes, but the advantage of a double lynching is that we have a double chance of getting the wolf before s/he can get the cursed villager (if still around - uncertain factor). There are seven of us, so we shall have to get at least two votes for both of them, in which case the other three villagers should vote singly for someone else, or if we can get six to vote on two, we'd have three votes each. Should someone come in at the very end to break the tie, s/he would be very suspicious, no? Oh, and even if we have three people with two votes each, the first and last of them would be lynched...

[mormegil]

I've got a good idea that could be worth trying. With this list of remaining villagers (copied from Phantom's list)

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

We should each do an individual analysis of the person below you. That would mean that I do one for TGWBS and he does Encai and so on until Mister Underhill does one for me. Since we only have one wolf there is no chance of a wolf analyzing the other wolf. This would spread out the work so nobody is doing too much. With our analysis be sure to include Firefoot's ideas.

Is everybody for it?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm for it, though our Seer also analyzed and came up clear for Esty. Would you like me still to analyze her? I'll do it, but it won't be until later, as I have to leave now.

[Boromir88]

I'd like to point out tgwbs defended Formendacil and questioned mormegil hard as to why he was so suspicious of Formendacil. And Formendacil slightly defended tgwbs. Here's a few posts I find rather disturbing from tgwbs.

Shelob innocent. Oh well.

Post 206.

1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent....
Slightly Innocent:
Formendacil

Post 215

the guy who be short: Also seems fairly innocent. Not as "proven" innocent as the Innocent Three (I guess that should be the Innocent Two now), but fairly innocent.~Formendacil, post 227

That's what I felt about Shelob... unfortunately, there are time constraints just at the moment, though I shall return later. Can you point to actual shifts Formen has made?~tgwbs, post 232

Then his vote seems like a throw-away and votes for Lhuna, another innocent.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Sounds like a good idea, morm - we have enough work cut out for us already! I'll go back and analyze Underhill's posts bit by bit, though I have already stated my conviction that he is very likely innocent.

[Boromir88]

morm, I can go through and "analyze" fea. For an overview, I stick by Fea as being set up. Well looking through posts of Formendacil and tgwbs, Formendacil labeled Fea as a wolf. I think this speaks to the fact that the wolves were trying to set her up and get her lynched.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by morm

Is everybody for it?

No. Enca wont be back until after I've made my vote and gone to sleep, and I suspect Esty too will be desirous of sleep tonight.

Offsetting this is his habit of voting early. Hard to say what's up here.

Esty and I happen to live in Europe... It's either that, or waking up at 6:00am for me.

I completely understand the suspicion against me. However, just because I've been consistently wrong, doesn't mean I'll stay that way.

Now here's the deal. I'm willing to be double lynched, but toDay is our last Day with mormian input. After that, there are no known innocents.

So, I'm willing to be lynched, on these conditions:

Esty and mormegil are recognised as innocents.

Encaitare is lynched with me.

If Enca is not a wolf, Fea and Boro are lynched next Day, with Esty as the final voter, if she can manage this.

Mr U or Esty - if you're wolves, I hate you. :P

[Estelyn Telcontar]

You won't have to hate me, tgwbs. Since the voting is so very crucial toDay, I will be sleeping early and getting up early to vote late. I announce this now so that all are aware of it - this is not a spontaneous decision. However, I'm still around for a couple of hours and I intend to do that analysis and to post as often as necessary. I will announce my impending absence later.

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, I've been taking a closer look at tgwbs, and I've found some stuff that jumps out at me:

#67 - Now that the theatrics are comfortably over, I would like to assert that I am most definitely not a weredwarf.

Hmm... not the same as saying he's not a werewolf... is he playing with us?

#83 - It is necessary that I disappear underground for some sleep in the next hour or so. We dwarves tend to turn in early, you see.

If neither Shelob nor Cailin have said something by then, I will vote for one of them. I dislike the silent.

#86 - Sorry, my mistake, Cailin has actually posted before. That makes Shelob my candidate for the day.

#94 - Esty - I base my "suspicion" of Shelob on the fact that she has not yet appeared. Voting her off, even if she is an innocent, will help in that it will remove a mysterious silent factor from the village.
Of course, if you're completely at a loss, it's always helpful getting an abacus to randomly choose somebody to kill for you.

Cailin - Sorry again.

#98 - [After Esty points out Lhuna's absence:] Hmm, I didn't notice Lhuna's absence. However I'm willing to put that down to time difference - seriously, that girl sleeps so late, it's like she's in another time zone.

Hmm again. This series of post strikes me as a little suspicious, with all their "mistakes" -- thinking Cailin hadn't posted when she had, then "not noticing" that Lhuna hadn't posted. I'm not too thrilled with the vote based on silence either. Several players that I now trust as innocents spoke out against this thinking at the time.

Then comes this post here in Mirth, in which tg links to a pic of himself as a Weredwarf. I know the short one is a joker. Is he taunting us here, or just being foolishly indiscreet?

#149 - tgwbs makes some analysis, including some definitive statements about several innocents. Time has proven him right on two out of three of those, and I trust morm, the last one on the list. What makes me nervous is how certain tg is so early in the game. Insight and a bit of recklessness, or wolfish knowledge showing?

#164 - Reassesses under the pressure of reactions to his analysis -- which makes me a bit nervous. Admits that some of his statements will make him look as though he has contracted "extreme schizophrenia". An unfortunate choice of words, or is he taunting us again?

#173 - Shorty gives all the reasons why he thinks he should vote for me, then votes for Shelob instead -- to keep a villager who was drawing a lot of suspicion alive? Hard to say.

#206 - Emphasizes that he predicted lmp's death. He says this as if it should make us trust him more, but how is this to his credit? He could easily have foreseen the death of our Ranger because he helped orchestrate it. Doesn't seem sorry about Shelob's death or his role in it: "Oh well."[/QUOTE]

#215 - 1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent.

2) Boro suspected Sauce to start off with.

Either startlingly bad analysis or a double-bluff in item 1. What's up with "Sauce" in item 2? Another "mistake"? Either tg is not playing a very attentive game (not his reputation, from what I gather from others' posts), or he's a wolf who can't resist toying with us. Knowing his sense of humor, the latter is easily a possibility.

In 228 and 232, tg asks for more info from morm on his Form suspicion, then, less than three hours later -- and even after morm provided some explanation of his suspicions -- he abruptly declares, "I'm bored of waiting" and casts vote for Lhuna with no explanation in the vote post and not much more in previous "analysis" posts.

Well, a closer look has made me feel worse, and not better about tgwbs.

I see Fea has posted and I don't have time to reply in detail. I'll say she's right to bring me up on the Firefoot point -- I composed that before she posted "I changed my mind." I do think your assumptions in #276 about who she dreamed about were hasty though. Trying to throw us off?

I've composed this up through about #303, so some of it may not take into account what has come after. I'll post it now and then read up, or I'll be stuck composing forever...

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, caught up now -- sorry for the double-post. The investigation idea sounds good, even though I've already conducted my own look into tgwbs. I'll take a closer look at morm. He's on my most trusted list and apparently had the trust of our Seer as well, and presumably wouldn't propose a daisy-chain investigation if he had anything to hide, but who knows what closer examination will reveal?

[Mister Underhill]

Sorry, one more thing I have to address very quickly:

Originally Posted by Feanor

Sure I am. I'm just like that. I like to be an individual, you know? Surely you don't expect me to continuously follow the crowd?

No, not follow the crowd. But surely it seems like sound innocent strategy to work to (1) identify the Seer and follow his/her lead, and (2) being unsure of the Seer's identity, attempt to find the most innocent villagers and work with them.

Being some sort of solo-rogue-individualist villager doesn't help anyone but the wolves -- if you're a wolf, it helps sow confusion and doubt; if you're innocent, it draws suspicion on yourself and only hinders the search for the true wolves.

[the guy who be short]

Hmm again. This series of post strikes me as a little suspicious, with all their "mistakes" -- thinking Cailin hadn't posted when she had, then "not noticing" that Lhuna hadn't posted. I'm not too thrilled with the vote based on silence either. Several players that I now trust as innocents spoke out against this thinking at the time.

The mistakes were due to the fact that I had much lore to investigate on the first day (ie College) which prevented my closely scrutinizing every post.

Votes based on silence are just another aspect of Werewolf infected villages that people disagree on a lot. I happen to believe that if somebody is going to be absent for prolonged periods of time, it gives nothing to work on in the future; thus, I aim to eliminate quiet people on the first Day.

#149 - tgwbs makes some analysis, including some definitive statements about several innocents. Time has proven him right on two out of three of those, and I trust morm, the last one on the list. What makes me nervous is how certain tg is so early in the game. Insight and a bit of recklessness, or wolfish knowledge showing?

It was obvious from their voting. Almost everybody else, excluding Fea, reached exactly the same conclusions.

#173 - Shorty gives all the reasons why he thinks he should vote for me, then votes for Shelob instead -- to keep a villager who was drawing a lot of suspicion alive? Hard to say.

Anybody who actually reads that post will notice that I was extremely unsure about who to vote for. I do not list points for lynching Mr U, then vote Shelob - the entire post shows my uncertainty concerning which one to vote for.

#206 - Emphasizes that he predicted lmp's death. He says this as if it should make us trust him more, but how is this to his credit? He could easily have foreseen the death of our Ranger because he helped orchestrate it.

The point was not "to my credit." It was to make people trust morm and Firefoot.

Either startingly bad analysis or a double-bluff in item 1. What's up with "Sauce" in item 2? Another "mistake"?

Startlingly bad for the former. And Boro actually did accuse Sauce to start off with. He got a little confused. Nice of you to bring that up though, it gives me faith in Boro again.

he abruptly declares, "I'm bored of waiting" and casts vote for Lhuna with no explanation in the vote post and not much more in previous "analysis" posts.

My posts show suspicion of Lhuna from Day 2, and she was high on my list for quite a while.

Finally, in response to Weredwarvery etc, may I not have my little jokes without falling under suspicion these days?

++TGWBS

I want to be lynched with Encai, as I have stated. If Boro and Fea vote for me, I'd appreciate that (I never thought I'd say that...) Esty and Mr U can vote for Enca. Incase Enca returns and does something malicious, I'd like morm to stick around until the end.

If Enca is not a wolf, on Day Two, please lynch: Feanor, Mr Underhill. Esty should be the one keeping her vote til the end, as I trust her most out of all of you, minus morm, who would die in the Night.

[Mister Underhill]

Ai, living in a village with crazy villagers doesn't help root out the wolves. Shorty, if you know you're innocent, why vote for yourself and ask to be lynched? Why not push for the two strongest werewolf candidates?

Either this vote is as crazy and unhelpful as Anguirel offering his neck for the noose on Day One, or you're a desperate wolf trying to throw the rest of us off your scent by self-voting.

Despite my analysis of tgwbs, I was still leaning towards Enca and Fea as the most likely wolf candidates. Now I don't know what to think.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't do that!!!!!!!!! Don't waste a perfectly good vote on someone who's not high on the suspected list! If the double lynching is to make any kind of sense, we need to vote for the top two on our list, all of us!

[Boromir88]

tgwbs is noble indeed sacrificing himself. I wonder if it be an attempt to get us to say "oh he must not be guilty" and follow behind me in wanting to sacrifice myself when really he is a wolf bluffing? But, I doubt it, so close to the wolves defeat, I don't think a wolf would want to bluff his way out and be suicidal.

Whether I'm another "candidate" up for lynching or not, I still oppose a double-lynching, many things can go wrong.

The cursed villager has been brought up, and if we end up lynching two innocents and not a wolf, of course we may have caught the cursed, but we might not have. In which the wolf stumbles upon luck and catches the cursed villager at Night, then it's over. Though this is highly unlikely, I'm sure its possible still if the Cursed happens to still be around.