TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[satansaloser2005]

If I'm not mistaken, Morm voted you because you suggested that we use the surveys to figure out who people were. (Really, I don't see much point. Good discussion, but like in Shasta's game we'll never know if we're right.) I, like Morm, think it's not right. Now of course if I'm wrong I'll beg Morm to correct me, but still.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Doktor

We really need to start discussing the surveys seriously before we run out of time. Everyone should say what they think the mods' plan was, since that's open for discussion.

I, for one, think that the mods were unlikely to choose someone feared or distrusted by the seer as a baddie - the game would be over too quickly. I also think they might have made logical choices and had the gifteds trust each other (not that I'm saying we should speculate about their identities, but the gifteds themselves can consider this).

I truly had not considered surveys on an individual basis like that. I was thinking more along the lines of "distrusted people will be less likely to gain roles" and "Surely there'll will be at least one trusted/believable villain" and so on. It hadn't occured to me that the Villains would be selected based upon the individual answers of the Seer.

Hmm.... interesting... If that is indeed the case, the Seer should try to work against their usual leanings.

As far having the gifteds trust each other- I don't know about that. How strong exactly did the Mod want the gifteds to be. If you give them gifts plus set them up so they're likely to work together, wouldn't that be unbalanced? I would think that at least one of the gifteds doesn't trust one of the others.

The Shirriffs, well, it could be anything. It may have amused Boro to make two poeple BFFs who are not known for being BFFs in other games, but then he may have done the obvious and paired a more likely duo. I don't think I'll try and speculate on that.

On the surface I would say the Villains and Bear, in order to have a better shot at survival, are more likely to be trusted than distrusted. But if we lynch the only people we trust, where does that leave us if we're wrong? And I can't imagine that all of them are in the same mold.

And what about those that the Villains and Bear fear? If they all said, "Mac scares me. I'm always worried he'll catch me or foil my plans," then it's pretty well a guarantee that Mac wasn't made the Seer. He's too likely to die under those conditions. And perhaps that's why Boro only required two answers per question- so that the baddies when making their picks couldn't rule out too many people. Meh... Am I getting nowhere with this? Because it feels like I am.

Perhaps I'll let others speculate and see if anything stirs me.

[the phantom]

I've never been so envious of taco meat....

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I've never been so envious of taco meat....

haha

[Brinniel]

I never thought phantom would be the most sensible one here...

I don't see what wrong with voting Fea if you don't have any other candidates available. She may or may not be evil, but the body count will rack up quickly enough as it is with two deaths per Night, so we might as well prevent any extra deaths due to modfire. Yeah, we have killed baddies on Day One in the past, but the chances we will lynch the bear toDay in order to bring the Night kills down to one are pretty slim. And anyway, I have to go now and I might not return. Considering I have no viable suspects at the moment, who else am I to vote for? I really don't feel like randomly voting another player, so I might as well vote someone who will die anyway. Either that or not vote anyone.

It seems most of you think voting Fea is bad choice. So tell me, would you rather have me make a No Vote instead? I would imagine that would be even less useful, but please enlighten me. I do apologise I can't make a reasonable vote due to my early departure, but I do have a life after all and I am horrible at finding anyone suspicious on Day One as it is, especially this early in the Day...

[Lariren Shadow]

As far as I can tell, votes so far(unless I missed something):
Rikae--> Rikae
Form--> Mira
Morm--> Hakon
Alona--> Hakon
Sally--> Hakon

So Hakon 3, Mira and Rikae 1

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Sally

If I'm not mistaken, Morm voted you because you suggested that we use the surveys to figure out who people were. (Really, I don't see much point. Good discussion, but like in Shasta's game we'll never know if we're right.) I, like Morm, think it's not right. Now of course if I'm wrong I'll beg Morm to correct me, but still.

I thought morm voted Hakon because he made a comment about morm fearing the phantom, but I could be wrong here...

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I thought morm voted Hakon because he made a comment about morm fearing the phantom, but I could be wrong here...

I think you are right about that. The most is somewhere on page four or five.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boro

Ahh that also reminds me, Lommy wanted you informed she would be on and able to post, but the first couple days she couldn't participate too much...and seeing this gargantuan amount of posts (hehe) maybe even less.

That's because she'd rather hang out with live BDers than pixelated ones. Hmph. We should lynch her for that.

[the phantom]

Thanks for the tally.

So, it's Hakon jumping out to the early lead.

Generally, people I've never played with before are safe from me on the first day (unless I have a really good reason). So he probably won't be getting another vote from me.

Who will get my vote? No clue at this point. I need to hear more from some people. Some haven't spoken at all. And I also want to have my vote available to switch if needed.

[Pitchwife]

OK, here's my opinions on the people who have said the most so far (I'll skip the 4 pages of early morning banter and gnitirw sdrawckab for now and start with the beginning of the bear discussion).
Hakon - sounds like a rather inexperienced player trying to get the hang of it, making an effort to contribute and suggesting experimental strategy. We may not agree with his suggestions, but I see nothing in them that shouts bear, wolf or cobbler.
Mac - fewer posts than some others, but those reasonable.
morm - I can understand his initial vote for Hakon as him being simply annoyed, but his retracting and then locking it, thus wasting any chance of correcting later when there's more evidence, worries me. If he's innocent, that was unnecessarily harsh.
Nerwen- I'm glad our Reverser has reverted to posting legibly. A nice mixture of sensible and amusing. I find her difficult to read even when she's not writing backwards, so no opinion as of now.
Rikae - talking sense, I'd say, except for the fact that she's done a lot to prolong a discussion she says herself is useless; maybe because there was little else to discuss at the time, or maybe... I don't know.
To be continued.

(x-ed with everything since phantom's #264, need some time to catch up)

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by morm

It is an exceptionally safe vote that doesn't leave any sort of trail of evidence. Because once it is decided that Fea will be voted for it gives far too easy a way for wolves/bear to hide.

The morm is right. Listen to him.

Originally Posted by Sally

Lynch me for it if you want, but I'm not discussing the surveys. Every other werewolf game we rely on how people act, vote, etc. in order to lynch baddies and I don't see why this should be any different.

The Sally is right, too. Listen to her.

My problem is that both want to lynch Hakon, who is in all probability innocent, with a small chance of cobblery. Don't listen to them!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I never thought phantom would be the most sensible one here...

I don't see what wrong with voting Fea if you don't have any other candidates available. She may or may not be evil, but the body count will rack up quickly enough as it is with two deaths per Night, so we might as well prevent any extra deaths due to modfire.

Not voting, or voting Fea is something I will not do. The body count will indeed quickly mount. But if you're voting, why not vote for someone who could at least potentially be a threat to innocents, instead of someone who will be gone anyway? In my admittedly rather limited WW experience I've never seen the logic of that, and this is no exception.

[Lariren Shadow]

Ok so yes Fea looks like a good guess but...I don't know. She's doomed anyway and the problem will be that toMorrow we won't be able to analyze votes because we just voted for a doomed player. I think that's whats getting to me. To me, it would seem that we would get two Day 1s then because we would have about as much to go on. We could go on the votes as they are now, but, well people have become annoyed with Hakon and voted for him. That's so sinister.

But it is the valid point that we could kill a gifted. Or we could kill a wolf. Or its Day 1.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Inzil

The body count will indeed quickly mount. But if you're voting, why not vote for someone who could at least potentially be a threat to innocents, instead of someone who will be gone anyway?

The problem is I have no candidates who I find potential threats, and anyway, whenever I do vote for the person I suspect most on Day One, I get suspected for it (such as last game).

[Hakon]

Lari, that is a great point about it being like two day ones. The thing is since the body count will grow so quickly we need to avoid killing innocents and gifteds. Voting Fea does save us from killing an innocent or gifted. The bear will be harder to find than the wolves and the cobbler even harder than the bear.

Crossed with Brinn's 295.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lari

She's doomed anyway and the problem will be that toMorrow we won't be able to analyze votes because we just voted for a doomed player.

Well don't bother analysing my vote regardless of who it's for. If it's not a no vote or for Fea, then it'll be randomly for someone else. Unless I have time to return and find a real suspect.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Yeah, we have killed baddies on Day One in the past, but the chances we will lynch the bear toDay in order to bring the Night kills down to one are pretty slim.

This seems awfully strange. I get it that only by lynching the bear will we get the kills to one but she seems to discount the lynching of the wolves completely. A wolf wouldn't be unhappy to get rid of the bear. Also just because odds are slim doesn't mean we shouldn't at least try. This line of thought makes me fairly suspicious of Brinn.

[Rikae]

Not enough or enough of substance from:
autume
Durelin
Formendacil
Inziladun
Lommy (but she excused herself)
Shasta
Mira

Shall we dust off ye olde "Lynch the Quiet Ones" theory? Of the others, I have no strong suspects, although Nessa and tp have been tripping my radar a bit... however, the Rangifer Tarandus are resting far too comfortably on this heap of players...

EDIT: Bolding and x'd with Morm.

[satansaloser2005]

Heck if I even know what's going on anymore.

My vote for Hakon stands. If he's innocent, I'm sorry, but the things he brought up bother me and I'll probably think clearer if he's gone. That and I think at the very least he wishes he were the actual cobbler.

Just so there's no doubt.

--Hakon

++Hakon

Leaving now. Have a nice rest of the Day, chillens.


(Oh, and before you ask, I used the thing at the top of my post so I'd know where I left off. No clues or hidden meanings in it, just a bookmark of sorts.)

[Rikae]

Hm, gotta wonder why Brinn is more worried about being suspected than about catching a wolf...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I've never been so envious of taco meat....

Shakespearean style:

Wild-eye is a leathern-jerkin, crystal-button, knot-pated, agatering, caddis-garter, smooth-tongue, Spanish pouch!

[Hakon]

Sally, of course I wish I was either a wolf or the cobbler. Sadly I am not.

Rikae, I would take Inziladun off that list. At least we know he has been reading these posts and has been online. He also has made several posts unlike the rest of the people on that list. Why is Nessa tripping your radar?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by morm

This seems awfully strange. I get it that only by lynching the bear will we get the kills to one but she seems to discount the lynching of the wolves completely. A wolf wouldn't be unhappy to get rid of the bear. Also just because odds are slim doesn't mean we shouldn't at least try. This line of thought makes me fairly suspicious of Brinn.

I was just saying that because the main argument for not voting Fea seemed to be so we could eliminate the threat of two kills per Night immediately and the only way to do that is to kill the bear since it'll take multiple Days to lynch the wolves down to zero. While it's difficult to kill a baddie on Day One as it is and we'll most likely lynch an innocent, if we do kill a baddie, it's more likely we'd find a wolf and not the bear since they are larger in numbers. Of course lynching a wolf would be great, but it won't reduce the number of kills per Night.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Sally, of course I wish I was either a wolf or the cobbler. Sadly I am not.

Ah, good, you're the bear then.


(Hey, he didn't say he wasn't!)

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hm, gotta wonder why Brinn is more worried about being suspected than about catching a wolf...

Probably because there was an entire Day last game that seemed to be mostly focused on me because apparently my vote on Day One was most suspicious...and I almost got lynched for it.

And of course I was innocent.

[Rikae]

Nessa's random-vote talk earlier toDay, and also the way she responded (or didn't respond) to suspicion.

However, come to think of it, Brinn and Nienna are also rather suspicious for the Fea-voting talk - I would say Nienna more than Brinn, since she's more low-key about it, as if trying to avoid drawing attention to herself. Interesting that Boro found Brinn suspicious for this, but not Nienna.

EDIT: X'd with everybody since Hakon.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Probably because there was an entire Day last game that seemed to be mostly focused on me because apparently my vote on Day One was most suspicious...and I almost got lynched for it.

And of course I was innocent.

And then you tried to save me who threw my vote at you to save my own skin! haha that was a good game...besides getting slaughtered

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And then you tried to save me who threw my vote at you to save my own skin! haha that was a good game...besides getting slaughtered

*grumblegrumble*shortgame*grumblegrumble*

[Rikae]

Focus, people!

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Focus, people!

Am trying! Working on a list of people and again going up against the "well they haven't posted" thing.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Focus, people!

Agreed!

[Pitchwife]

That sudden accumulation of votes for Hakon does look suspicious - Alona's a little less than Sally's, who has also locked hers. Wolves picking an easy target? Hardly all three of them (too obvious), but there may be one wolf among them.
That said, Hakon, why you would wish to be a wolf or the cobbler is beyond me.

About the surveys - I tend to agree that the wolves are most likely a mixed team; the gifted probably too.

I see nothing wrong with phantom's idea of using Fea as a near-deadline lightning-rod to avoid lynching a gifted - if, and only if, we have nothing else to go on, i.e. no other suspects. morm's point that the wolves could safely vote for Fea without leaving a trail is valid, but how would a Fea vote leave less of a trail than a No-vote?

[Rikae]

Hm, it may be that Hakon is a wolf. It's not only that he's suggested silly things (that in itself is probably not wolfish) but that he's been particularly enthusiastic, touchy, and ge suggested the whole surveys thing and then, given permission to discuss it, didn't pursue it further... still seems like an easy vote, though.

The phantom - well, he really has me wondering now - I could almost see him laughing behind his computer as he argued for voting Fea...

Mac, although I disagree with him on several points, seems quite innocentish. I just wish he could appreciate the fun of 8 pages in less than a day...

Nienna, as I said above, looks a bit suspicious.

Autume has not posted anything that can be read in any way, and never did so in the previous game I played with her... she might be a good choice simply because we'll never pin her down otherwise.

Brinn wants to vote for Fea for Brinn-ish and fairly unsuspicious reasons.

Morm seems relatively normal, aside from going after Brinn oddly.

Nessa, what I said before, but it might be newbieness.

Sally I haven't looked at closely enough. She did make an easy vote, I think.

Pitchwife looks quite sensible, which may or may not be innocentish.

As for everyone else, I don't know what to say.

[Hakon]

I have four people I am most suspicous of. The first of these being Mormegil. I have a gut feeling that something is off with him and his vote for me seems way too rushed. I think he might be a wolf but this is just off of a gut feeling.

The next person is Sally. This is also mostly a gut feeling but also on some stuff she said. I think she might be the cobbler and trying to frame me. She said it looks like I want to be the cobbler and that makes me think that maybe she is the cobbler.

The third person is The Phantom. He actually seems very innocent it just that he is very active and suggesting good ideas. In in my opinion that is the best way to hide being a wolf. What I originally thought was that Phantom was the bear with all of his bear talk. That leads me to my fourth person, Rikae. I think she might be the bear. I think this because she argued against Phantom's idea of the bear helping and my idea as well. This makes me think that she is the bear and she wishes to not help. Most of these are bad theories, oh well. Those are the four people I am most suspicious of.

Crossed with Rikae's 314.

[Rikae]

I have wasted way too much of this day on this game, so I'm just letting you know I'm not going to be around for several hours. Don't do anything I would do, kids.

[autume98]

I have been reading the posts. I'm currentlly at work where the only internet I have to this site is my cell phone. Not to mention work is a little busy right now. Ugh.

I am leaning toward what Sally said regarding voting for Fea. I think we should at least try to lynch the bear or one of the wolves.

Also, I agree that Hakon looks pretty suspicious at this point.

Edit: x-ed with #309 to this one

[Brinniel]

I really must go now; I meant to leave hours ago.

But fine. Since I know you all will give me a bunch of crap if I vote Fea, I won't. So my vote will be random instead.

++morm

There. Now I don't want to hear any crap about it since it seems you all were asking I vote for someone random instead of a soon-to-be-dead player. And so I have. And at least it's better than voting Hakon who I think is an easy lynch for Day One.

I might be back and able to change my vote, but don't count on it.

[Rikae]

Ok, one last post, gotta reply to Pitchwife.

Why would I argue with phantom if I were the bear? I would be perfectly content to let people think I was going to help. I was a bear once, though.

[the phantom]

Yeah, I doubt you're the Bear, Rikae. Anyway, I'm kind of busy now, but I'll be around later. See ya soon.