Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Dead Thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Of those options, what does everyone think?

I liked the old list better. And I'm a little side-eyeing Brinn for prompting the switch - the obvious way to mix it up was to flip it, which of course put her in the Prey list, which a wolf would know is the group to be in.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I liked the old list better. And I'm a little side-eyeing Brinn for prompting the switch - the obvious way to mix it up was to flip it, which of course put her in the Prey list, which a wolf would know is the group to be in.

Good point. However, if we stray from it, we risk the remaining innocents being falsely led to believe something (maybe that Boro was a wolf), which of course, the baddies would also take much delight in.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think we're in with the same misunderstanding we had in the Living Thread. I think Lommy means a vote empowering someone who is voting for Legate to be lynched.

Yes.

I originally thought we have a "you win or you die" kind of Day toDay and that's why I thought miscommunication about Boro's alignment would be a small price to pay for lynching a baddie. Now I don't know. It's hard when you don't know he actual numbers. Also: those of us staying up until the dl: remember intentionally causing a tie is an option too if someone you're 90% sure is innocent is about to get lynched. It might give us another Day depending on the numbers.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Good point. However, if we stray from it, we risk the remaining innocents being falsely led to believe something (maybe that Boro was a wolf), which of course, the baddies would also take much delight in.

Agreed. I don't like the new list one bit. But would "none of the above" be a good way to communicate we don't want to be bound by this system anymore? It's getting risky.

Then again most of us seem to be "out and cycling" (aka clueless ) like Nogrod said.....

I was hoping the GW would reveal herself and the gifteds toDay and rally the ordos to her side - bold, I know, but the best way to ensure a baddie lynch at this point, but she seems to have a reason not to do that.

[Nogrod]

I think we should really consider now foremost to try and help to vote down a baddie.

With eight people remaining and probably three of them evil, they can easily co-ordinate a vote. Especially toDay when they can actually emerge victorious if they succeed in their Night kill after that.

Nice, if Brinn, Eönwe or Legate vote for someone we think is evil. Then let's do it and empower one vote against the person we suspect the most. But if none of them votes for a person we really suspect, then let's try to save the village first and try to enhance any vote we see as aiding the village in the lynching of a baddie.

And please don't start on this again in this Thread - it was enough for me to try and hold the sanity of this approach against the evil back there with the living. Knowing Boro is innocent doesn't help them if the village loses, especially in the ironic situation where our vote-empowerement opens the road to victory for the evil...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I was hoping the GW would reveal herself and the gifteds toDay and rally the ordos to her side - bold, I know, but the best way to ensure a baddie lynch at this point, but she seems to have a reason not to do that.

I looked forward to it too, especially with this "We'll have an interesting Day ahead of us" by Kuru (remembering he wished to hear about any Duel-challenges the previous Night).

Let's hope not our GW is so thoughtless / full of herself, that she leaves the challenge dramatically to the end of the Day, not thinking how devastatingly poor she'd make the situation for a) the rest of the ordos to unite in the normal voting, and b) us here to aid in that effort.

[Loslote]

I'm not totally sure what to make of the Nerwen-Brinn spat - it looks to me like Nerwen set out to find Brinn suspicious toDay, but I can't tell if a Nerwolf is trying to get an innocent Brinn lynched or if it's attempted wolf-on-wolf. I think, unless one of them is the EW, that wolf-on-wolf doesn't quite make sense here, since there's no way to know until two Days later that the one who died even was a wolf, so I'm leaning towards thinking that Brinn is innocent.

Unless Nerwen is the GW or a gifted acting for the GW, and Brinn is a scried wolf. But I do think Nerwen is suspicious anyway, so I'm leaning away from that theory.

[Mithalwen]

It is hard since we have no known innocents alive as a reference point and gifted and wolfish behaviour can be similar. However I think our best use is to try and get a wolf even if it risk a mix3d message later on. I mean Nogrod could be a visitor. Someone has to be something. Even if thw wizards seem to be stymied.

[Mithalwen]

I tend to think Legate is furry. We voted for someone who voted for him yesterday. If we did that again it would perhaps indicate that it was a target vote rather than info. But we would have to be in broad agreement ..and I am not confident enough to push hard for this.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I tend to think Legate is furry. We voted for someone who voted for him yesterday. If we did that again it would perhaps indicate that it was a target vote rather than info. But we would have to be in broad agreement ..and I am not confident enough to push hard for this.

Shasta is who got our empowerment yesterDay.

The real problem with going away from the system, as noted, is that they won't know what to make of our actions. Even if we get a wolf, they won't know that. And they might question our previous empowerments.

[Nogrod]

I looked at the Nightly narrations then.

At the beginning of D1 (aka. N1 narration) there was nothing, no clunks or buzzes or anything - and no red letters either. The only thing hinting at something happening was this:

Originally Posted by Narration N1

But what if Kuru was right? What if somebody had come to the party intending to murder them all?

What if…one of them had already joined them..?

Next we had a wilder one

Originally Posted by Narration N2

The NIGHT was quiet.

Mostly.

Except that as dawn began creeping over the horizon there was a strange buzz.

It went on and on growing louder and LOUDER and LOUDER!!!!!!

The guests huddled in their rooms, terrified.

bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZ BANG *fizzle* POP

And Morsul was dead.

When D3 broke...

Originally Posted by Narration N3

The NIGHT passed swiftly.

Those who slept did so fitfully.

There was a pervasive sense that they were all on the edge of another, strange world that might reach out and touch them at any time.

The dawn came, as it always does.

The group around the guillotine was a bit smaller this time.

No buzzes or pops, no bolded letter nor highlighted ones... but Lommy had died

The next one

Originally Posted by Narration N4

The NIGHT was dark and full of buzzing.

Yes, buzzing again.

bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ *whoosh* CLANG *doink*

"Who put that there?"

Silence.

Silence without stillness. As the guests slept they felt the swirling of many powers around them.

All in all, it didn't lend itself to a restful NIGHT.

No bolding but one highlighted CLANG. Mith was dead - could this reference of Mith taking the route of the "escapee" point towards Pervinca and as such be of little consequence - or do you think this could have a meaning:

They set off in search of the route taken by the escapee.

On their way they found the body of Mithalwen who apparently tried to do the same in the NIGHT.

Anyway last Night then.

bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZzzzzZZZZZzzz booOOOOOoop *fizzle*

"Can you believe this?!" came a voice.

That was the only noise in the NIGHT.

Once again no red colour, no bolded parts... but I was dead.


To make a comparison - on the narrations after each Day there are three consistently highlighted things: the name of the one whose vote has been empowered by the Dead and the following I FEEL STRANGELY EMPOWERED! Then there is the final CLUNK! that is the noise of the guillotine.

*Pulls back to think about this*

Please help, if we could solve this riddle together.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The real problem with going away from the system, as noted, is that they won't know what to make of our actions. Even if we get a wolf, they won't know that. And they might question our previous empowerments.

A real problem about going with the system is that we may empower a vote of a wolf and thus seal a lynch of a goodie and the game is over the coming Night.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A real problem about going with the system is that we may empower a vote of a wolf and thus seal a lynch of a goodie and the game is over the coming Night.

True enough. Maybe it is time to 'go rogue'.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Shasta is who got our empowerment yesterDay.

The real problem with going away from the system, as noted, is that they won't know what to make of our actions. Even if we get a wolf, they won't know that. And they might question our previous empowerments.

I think it will be moot anyway. I just thought consistency might indicate we were wolfhunting but it was just a thought.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No bolding but one highlighted CLANG. Mith was dead - could this reference of Mith taking the route of the "escapee" point towards Pervinca and as such be of little consequence - or do you think this could have a meaning

I will give you this teensy bit of help since I already noted this in my DAY 5 opening; that does not mean anything. I just wrote it for fun.

Bonus hint: Don't worry about colors, that doesn't mean anything either.

[Nogrod]

So, it’s quite certain a wolf was created both on Nights 1 and 3. The one created on N1 has practically been a wolf the whole game along, the one on N3 only from D3 onwards. The first question then become, who changed from D3 onwards?

The other hints are more enigmatic but let’s see if we can say something about them…

On N2 there was
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZ BANG *fizzle* POP
and it was said before that there was a buzz that became louder and LOUDER!

On N4 there was
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ *whoosh* CLANG *doink*
and an added: "Who put that there?"

On N5 there was
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZzzzzZZZZZzzz booOOOOOoop *fizzle*
and an added: “"Can you believe this?!" came a voice” – and remark that was the only noise in the Night.

*~*

It might be the first LOUDER in red doesn’t mean anything – or then it does. It kind of looks odd to me.

But more noteworthy (I think) are the three “buzzings” (Nights 2, 4 & 5) and two *fizzles* (on Nights 2 & 5).

On top of those we have a *whoosh* and a *doink* on N4 added with a CLANG and a “Who put that there?”

There’s also a BANG and POP on N2.

And with the *fizzle* on N5 there is the “"Can you believe this?!" –voice.


Any ideas?


EDIT: WIth the new information in, ignore the highlightings.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I will give you this teensy bit of help since I already noted this in my DAY 5 opening; that does not mean anything. I just wrote it for fun.

As you see, I thought as much...

Bonus hint: Don't worry about colors, that doesn't mean anything either.

Thanks. Saves us some future "highlighting"...

[Nogrod]

Btw. Who's gonna be around at the DL?

Lottie, Inzil?

Boro said he woyuldn't - and Lommy & mySelf need to go to sleep more or less now / soonish enough.

How about Morsul (has he been around lately?) or Mith?

I mean knowing Zil & Lottie to be innocents I'd be ready to let them do the voting toDay aka. not voting myself and suggesting that we other Europeans would withhold from it as well as not to complicate things.

We could try to give you our POV's and then you should act on them as you see fit as the DL comes - looking at how the voting there goes.

What do you think? At least I need to be in the bed in half an hour or so.

[Thinlómien]

I think it is entirely possible the GW and the EW have been targeting the same people, and that's waht all the fuss is about. A ranger save or hunter action would have looked different.

I'm wondering why Eönwë gives all the other Night kills the courtesy of being "presumed innocent" but not Nogrod.

And as for our dilemma, I think the preferable option is trying to lynch a bad guy AND communicate either that Boro was innocent (BORO PREY) or that we don't like this communication system anymore because it's too risky (NONE OF THE ABOVE), but I'd say bagging a baddie is more crucial than relaying correct information if it comes to that.

I'm going to sleep in about an hour. I'll see about whether it makes sense to voe or not. I guess I can't cause much damage even if I vote to empower someone most wouldn't empower - it's hard to cause a tie with just one vote, right?


edit: xed with Nog's last

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Btw. Who's gonna be around at the DL?

Lottie, Inzil?

I will be, yeah.

[Mithalwen]

All I can say is I don't know why there would be a significance to me foll8wing Pervinca. I hadn't asked to go. I am clearly not a visitor. Noone else died so not hunter kill. My guess would be that the clang was a ranger blocking a evil wizard target.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

All I can say is I don't know why there would be a significance to me foll8wing Pervinca. I hadn't asked to go.

Kuru confirmed that already and told it was just narrational stuff...

100% agree with Lommy: if we have any decent suspicons, let us empower the person who votes for that one in the Living Thread. Communication of Boro's innocence is of secondary importnace now.

On another issue...

I tried to make this even more concise.

N2
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZ BANG *fizzle* POP

N4
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ *whoosh* CLANG *doink*
"Who put that there?"

N5
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZzzzzZZZZZzzz booOOOOOoop *fizzle*
"Can you believe this?!" came a voice”

The wolves seem to have succeeded every Night (this is just a presumption, but I think pretty good one). So in that case all those other things are things between the Wizards or the Ranger saving a turning into a wolf.

So the possibilities (for no-wolf–creation – which seem to have taken place on Nights 2, 4 & 5) are:
1) The Ranger protects someone from being turned into a wolf.
2) Both the GW and the EW aim at the same person.
3) The EW targets the GW.
4) The EW targets a gifted.

Something quite unexpected happened on N5 - I'd say. Or something happened like for a third time?

[Thinlómien]

Okay, so, going off of this:

BORO PREY
Brinniel
Eönwë
Legate of Amon Lanc

BORO PREDATOR
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
satansaloser2005

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Shastanis Althreduin
Nerwen

I'd prefer empowering Brinniel, Eönwë, Legate, Shasta or Nerwen. Remove people I consider very fishy, the list shrinks to Eönwë and Shasta.

More importantly, I would prefer to empower a vote for Nerwen, Brinniel or Legate.

Going to sleep soon...

[Thinlómien]

Oh and I wanted to say - Nogrod raised a good question about who's around for the dl. Since the number is not very big, I think I'm gonna skip voting altogether and trust their judgement.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I tried to make this even more concise.

N2
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZ BANG *fizzle* POP

N4
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ *whoosh* CLANG *doink*
"Who put that there?"

N5
bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZzzzzZZZZZzzz booOOOOOoop *fizzle*
"Can you believe this?!" came a voice”

The wolves seem to have succeeded every Night (this is just a presumption, but I think pretty good one). So in that case all those other things are things between the Wizards or the Ranger saving a turning into a wolf.

So the possibilities (for no-wolf–creation – which seem to have taken place on Nights 2, 4 & 5) are:
1) The Ranger protects someone from being turned into a wolf.
2) Both the GW and the EW aim at the same person.
3) The EW targets the GW.
4) The EW targets a gifted.

Something quite unexpected happened on N5 - I'd say. Or something happened like for a third time?

"Who put that there?" sounds like deliberate interference - maybe a Ranger save. "Can you believe this?" sounds like something unexpected - the target was a gifted or the GW. The first one with no comment seems to me to fit best with option 2, where both Wizards targeted the same person. But that could be reading too much into it.

If not everyone is going to be around to vote close to DL, I'd like to hear who everyone would like to vote for (for clarification, who everyone thinks is suspicious). I'll include my list as well.

Very suspicious: Nerwen, Lalaith
Suspicious: Legate, Eomer
Borderline: Brinn, Eonwe
Unknown, unknowable: Sally, Shasta

I'd want to steer the lynch towards the people in the Very Suspicious and Suspicious groups. I think that would give us the best shot at catching a wolf. But, it doesn't look like Nerwen or Lalaith or Eomer are lynch candidates toDay, so I would prefer to steer the lynch towards Legate. Would everyone be comfortable with that? If we as a group are more suspicious of, say, Brinn, I would be willing to try to steer the lynch that way instead, but I would personally prefer Legate.

EDIT: xed with Lommy

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Back again briefly- no, I don't think I'm misrepresenting you. Certainly not deliberately- I've been looking at what you actually say in those posts and interpreting it as best I can. Maybe you meant something different by it- who knows? I felt there was a certain house-of-cards logic to some of your suspicions, to which I wanted to draw attention.

...

Comments: Hard to say. Much of her posting seems sensible and innocent but there are some definite wolfy indications as well. Hmmn.

How do the living not think she's suspicious? This is reading so wolfy to me.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I need to go to sleep.

I'll refrain from voting for our empowerment not to make things harder around the DL.

Look at the Living Thread closely - it seems they are once again leaving their votes to the very latest.

For what it's worth, I do suspect Nerwen and am very uneasy with Brinn - and share somewhat the suspicions on Legate (could be the N3 turned wolf?). At the same time I do acknowledge that Nerwen and Brinn had a spat (could be pre-arranged to make distance between them) and Legate has looked much more innocent and reasonable toDay.

I see why some people think Eönwe must be innocent, but I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be the N1 wolf.

Eomer and Lalaith are the two real enigmas to me and just now I think they deserve to win if they're baddies (especially if they both are!).

Sally and Shasta have taken such little part I don't know what to say - but the exact opposite from Eomer and Lalaith - they don't deserve to win if they do.


But I do hope you take seriously the idea that we should try to help to lynch a baddie toDay. Letting the Living know that Boro is innocent - or that we're not too happy with the system any more - is, I think, secondary.

[Thinlómien]

Yeah, I very much doubt both Nerwen and Brinn are evil, and Nerwen seems worse. I also wonder about a Nerwen-Shasta team (Nerwen = EW, Shasta = wolf?) using their recurring lovey-dovey werewolf act as a smokescreen for an alliance? Who'd be the other, presumably later-created wolf?

edit: xed with Nog

[Mithalwen]

I will try to be around but last time I woke a couple of hours later fully dressed and clutching tablet.

[Nogrod]

Just inspired by Lottie...

N2 Both Wizards went after the same person (thus Pop! - their hopes vanished into thin air)

N4 The Ranger saved a turning (thus *Whoosh* (EW's attempt) Clang! (shielded))

N5 Both Wizards went after each other (that would be the unbelievable part - and with the buzz there is also a Booop - like crashing to each other?). That would also explain Kuru's "it's going to be an interesting Day" -remark?

[Thinlómien]

I think Legate's last post just made him look considerably more innocent. It made sense, seemed to be from a genuinely innocent pov, and proved he's thinking outside the box.

While Nerwen is creepily echoing Shasta, further fueling my theory of them being in cahoots. Any chance of getting Nerwen lynched toDay?


edit: xed with noggelsgoggels

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I will try to be around but last time I woke a couple of hours later fully dressed and clutching tablet.

If we have Lottie and Inzil - both granted and known innocents around there, we Europeans can I think sleep with good conscience. They should be able to handle it as good as anyone of us.

So for my part I'll just say, pay heed to what we have said and follow the Living Thread - whoever knows what may happen (I'm still a bit afraid there will be the Duel but called for at the last stages so that the innocents can't gather their lines for the lynch - and we'll struggle to react.

But keeping the thumbs up for you and us all.

Good night and good luck - and let's hope there will be toMorrow!


PS.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Any chance of getting Nerwen lynched toDay?

I hope there is...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm a bit surprised that more people aren't wrestling with these numbers. We've had all game to speculate on 'so-and-so feels wolfy to me'; but now there's possibly essential info for us to work with. We've not come across a single wolf all game - we've been shooting in the dark!

But today, we know for certain that the EW is not at maximum wolfage. Either Boro was innocent, in which case we need to work out possible night scenarios - all of which seem less likely to me, given that they're based on so much bad luck for the EW.

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

All right, time to focus more closely on my top lynch suspects.

So first "we've not come across a single wolf" then suddenly back to assuming Boro was a wolf? Well that's... convenient. Much worse than Zil's "slip" if you ask me...

Summary: feeling worse about Eomer and Shasta than I indicated earlier, and much better about Legate. Would prefer to lynch Nerwen no matter the cost.

But going now. Good night, and

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Btw. Who's gonna be around at the DL?

Lottie, Inzil?

I think I can be here at DL.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh and I wanted to say - Nogrod raised a good question about who's around for the dl. Since the number is not very big, I think I'm gonna skip voting altogether and trust their judgement.

In other words, no pressure.

[Loslote]

One other thing to consider, when thinking about the submarines: If I were the GW on Night 1, who would I pick to be the Ranger? The person least likely to be lynched. Probably someone who is often a submarine.

[Loslote]

If Sally's the GW, we might be about to get our Duel...

[Loslote]

There are fifteen minutes until we need to vote for empowerment, and the living have yet to cast a single vote.

[Mithalwen]

Well a rather absentee one. I am still irked by the submarine thing. Brinn, Shasta and Sally have all posted less that Kuru! People who have been dead for days have more!
I don't think Sally has posted anything original only that she can't post, reproofs and vote counts. I suppose absenteeism is good cover but it makes it an unsporting game.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

There are fifteen minutes until we need to vote for empowerment, and the living have yet to cast a single vote.

Playing who blinks first

[Loslote]

If no one commits before we need to vote, maybe we could do Shasta again? He's at least said he might vote for Legate, and his other options (Brinn and Eonwe, I think) aren't too bad.

[Mithalwen]

I can't believe all the deadthread communication timewasters were innocent. If so the evils must have laughed their socks off in gratitude.