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04-25-2021, 07:30 AM | #281 |
Wight of the Old Forest
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Here and catching up. There's eight players left now, five of us and three wolves. If we mislynch again, they get a kill, it's 3:3, game over. So we really need to lynch a wolf toDay.
And we have a ghost who speaks in riddles, as befits a conjured spirit. Got to say I just love this addition to the game, and Formy is rocking the role! Which leads me to the question if we should read anything into whom among them the Dead have chosen to be their spokesperson, especially since much has been speculated about the wolves killing Formy thinking him the Seer, and how this would implicate sally. In the light of this, sending Formy to haunt us could mean - either the Dead agree with this reasoning (although they couldn't know for sure, the real Seer still being alive) or - they disagree and sent him to correct us. Can you shed any light on this question, o Formerdacil?
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04-25-2021, 07:49 AM | #282 | ||
Wight of the Old Forest
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A quick correction:
Quote:
Also Quote:
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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04-25-2021, 08:03 AM | #283 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Virtually nothing would dissuade me of her guilt. Even the seer reveal because it would simply be countered and then we’re down to guessing between the two anyway. That’s why the deer’s voting in post was an important part. But since I’m alone on that plan I pulled my nuclear option. Let’s not leave out Sorimon’s Weird backwards logic vote that doubled down on Lottie following a wolf pack’s lead? Form called them both out they could’ve killed him not just for the Sally vote but to prevent him dreaming Sorimon too. Edit: not important none of y’all gonna take the FormerForm journey with me?
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Morsul the Resurrected Last edited by Morsul the Dark; 04-25-2021 at 08:08 AM. |
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04-25-2021, 08:07 AM | #284 | |
Everlasting Whiteness
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First off, I love the Ghost role. I've just read through the thread and GhostForm is clearly having the time of his life.
This from Lottie yesterDay. Quote:
sally, I'm more than happy to vote for today. My suspicions of her from yesterDay haven't changed, and given that Morsul voted sally and then basically got a 'we're not sure but it's a pretty good shout' back from GhostForm, followed by the faux 'oh woe-is-me you're all so mean' from sally in post 261 ... well. Pitch, Lommy and Legate I haven't much looked at yet so I will spend some time on that toDay. With Boro's behaviour yesterDay, I read it as his oft-used strategy of: "Look at me, look at me! No don't look at them, I'M the Gifted one! No really - pay attention to meeee!" Ok yes maybe I'm oversimplifying but I read post #191 and just had to smile, and it also made me feel that he's innocent. The wolves would want to draw out Gifteds, not distract from them, so I'm feeling ok about Boro at the moment. GhostForm's post in #276 ... I'm struggling. Is it that on Day 1 everyone had a choice, and then the reference to the little gardener - could that be Greenie. A Little Green. So then lots and none at all - lots of people voted for her but none at all were wolves? We already know Hui and Lottie, who voted Greenie, are innocent, so does that speak in Legate's favour possibly? Anyway. sally is definitely top of my suspect list, and then I'll go look at Legate, Lommy, Pitch.
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04-25-2021, 08:14 AM | #285 | ||
Wight of the Old Forest
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Quote:
- Morsul - myself - Hui - Greenie - sally - Lottie By eliminating Greenie as known innocent, Boro pares that down to five, but then, why not eliminate Hui and Lottie as well, who are also known innocents? Whereas there were five people who didn't get a vote D1: - Boro - Kath - Legate - Lommy - Sori So there could equally be a wolf among those five. Also Formerdacil later adds this: Quote:
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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04-25-2021, 08:20 AM | #286 | |||||
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
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He quoted about the "Vision of Iluvatar" that was "brief and soon taken away." So, this would be referencing the tidbit of info given to the innocent dead by our ModGods: Quote:
Quote:
What that message is I'm hoping perhaps others can help, but think of it as trying to decipher the message by Form creating a story through unconnected quotes. In the first message he quoted "The Beginning of Days," "The First Day" "we elected and measured" So, the message was about the voting on Day 1. Now this time, it appears to be something about another day's voting: Quote:
But I am going to need some help on this one. Edit: crossed with Pitch and Kath
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Last edited by Boromir88; 04-25-2021 at 08:24 AM. |
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04-25-2021, 08:24 AM | #287 | |
Dead Serious
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Quote:
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04-25-2021, 08:26 AM | #288 | |||
Wight of the Old Forest
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
EDIT: deleted a line from Kath's post that was copied into mine by mistake.
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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04-25-2021, 08:30 AM | #289 | |||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Quote:
Quote:
121 Sorimon is in Sally’s no read pile Quote:
I posted in 251 IF my interpretation of the ghost quotes is right Sorimon and Sally are definitely possible packmates. But this post is more speculative. In that post Kath is the last but I can’t commit to that. So based on their three posts as well as comparing to Sally’s I find them likely packmates. The third could be Kath but again this last point is Extremely speculative. Xed a bunch
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Morsul the Resurrected Last edited by Morsul the Dark; 04-25-2021 at 08:36 AM. Reason: Took out vote highlight in quote |
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04-25-2021, 08:31 AM | #290 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
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04-25-2021, 08:38 AM | #291 | |
Wight of the Old Forest
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Quote:
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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04-25-2021, 08:39 AM | #292 | |
Laconic Loreman
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As I've said though, I'm done steering toDay and will vote for either Morsul, sally or Pitch.
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04-25-2021, 08:45 AM | #293 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Boro my only concern is FormerForm’s confirmation comes after your post and mine.
The question is if it’s confirming your interpretation or my vote.
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04-25-2021, 08:51 AM | #294 | |||
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It goes
253 Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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04-25-2021, 09:21 AM | #295 |
Wight of the Old Forest
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Awlright I completely overlooked Formerdacil's #287. Suppose that settles it, and Boro was right.
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04-25-2021, 10:02 AM | #296 |
Haunting Spirit
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Alright my vote for Lottie I think proves my innocence, I know it was a stange thing to switch my vote to Lottie over Huin. I thought that Huin was likely a wolf and if he was a wolf then lottie must be one too (sorry lottie my bad) and I felt like Huin was a stronger player to have as an ally if I was wrong.
My vote has to prove my innocence as why would a wolf waste a vote against Lottie if they planned to attack in the night? I am very unsure of Legate and Boro and feel a bit lost on who to trust at this point. I'll be lurking for a while.
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04-25-2021, 10:07 AM | #297 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I’m known for hard to follow logic but this defense is far beyond me.
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04-25-2021, 10:14 AM | #298 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Quote:
Here and reading.
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04-25-2021, 10:32 AM | #299 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Ok, I'm going to have to start being a good guest, because people expect it of you on your birthday, but I'm also concerned with this eerie quiet. I think we have to make use of Form only being here for one day and there's still a message to decipher. Seeing as we can ask him questions still and I'm stuck on the entire message, let's try to solve it one quote at a time. Ghost!Form is your message in Post 276 referring to information the innocent dead have learned about Day 2 voting? My thinking here is if you were referring to Day 1's voting you would have used the same quotes that you used in the first message. And in your 2nd quote "elected" appears again.
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04-25-2021, 10:38 AM | #300 | |
Haunting Spirit
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I suppose this falls apart if you think the wolves would've wanted Huin over Sally. Anyway yes I admit a slightly tongue in cheek defence could be picked apart but you gotta believe me! Anyway Morsul I like your idea to vote togeter and play the percentages. It's our best strategy in this position.
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"And thou, Melkor, shalt see that no theme may be played that hath not its uttermost source in me, nor can any alter the music in my despite... ". The Silmarillion - Ainulindalë |
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04-25-2021, 10:46 AM | #301 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Exactly. Two early votes just couldn’t get the village to bite.
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04-25-2021, 11:00 AM | #302 | |
Dead Serious
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Quote:
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04-25-2021, 11:12 AM | #303 | |
Wight of the Old Forest
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Quote:
To be clear, I'm more suspicious of Morsul for suggesting such a thing in the first place than of a newbie for agreeing with it.
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04-25-2021, 11:44 AM | #304 | |
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Quote:
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04-25-2021, 11:46 AM | #305 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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This will be kind of train-of-thought, sorry.
Lommy - post 24 has Morsul as suspicious for their reaction to Hui, and Hui as suspicious for being Hui. Non-committal really. Suggests a Pitch+Legate/Hui pack due to Pitch's meta-argument about prior games. Post 47 mentions everyone, leaves everyone undecided, except maybe Pitch and Lottie with a little bit stronger suspicion. Post 49 her suspicion list has Form, Hui, Lottie, Pitch. If Lommy were a wolf, I'd be looking at Pitch as a fellow as the other three are all dead and proven innocent. Suspicion of Lottie stays consistent into Day 2. Thinks she is letting sally off the hook, then suggests a Lottie/sally/Hui pack. If Lommy is a wolf, good way to bury a fellow between two now known to be innocents. Thinks it unlikely in post 136 that Form was killed for potential Seerishness, but if he was it either speaks to Hui's innocence or sally's guilt. In post 181 in essence 'clears' Hui, Legate, Boro, Morsul, Lottie, sally and then suspicious of me for 'easy' votes. Wants to vote me or Pitch, but would go for sally. Feel like we hadn't had a mention of Pitch for a while there, and that she's finding a way to avoid a vote for sally without avoiding a vote for sally. In post 196 mentions she would have been worried if Lottie had reached 2 votes first - quite a swing from the earlier quite high level suspicion. In post 266 says she felt confident of Lottie's innocence. She did flip into this from post 181. Comes out gunning for Boro for orchestrating the Hui lynch, I'd like an explanation of what she means by that, given by her own admission she decided Hui was innocent based on her analysis of Form and then voted Hui anyway. Also suspicious of Morsul for voting early. Analyses Lottie's death and comes out with Pitch, sally, Morsul as possible suspects - which matches GhostForm's hinting if we've read that right. Votes: Hui (puts Hui into the lead with 2 votes) Hui (makes a third tie at 2 people, others were sally and Lottie) Pitch - post 27 no opinion on Morsul, Form, Lottie, sally. Feels good on Greenie and Boro. Some suspicion of Hui (pokey mode), Lommy (non-engagement) and then Legate (forgetting his last game). Suspicious further of Lommy in post 38 for having vague suspicions of two people who could easily become bandwagons. Decides Hui/Morsul both innocent. Questions my reasoning about the same debate. In post 54 happy with Boro, names a possible wolf pack made up of Hui, Lommy, Lottie, Kath. So almost returning the favour on Lommy. Can't decide if that makes them more or less likely to be fellows as it stands out a bit on a re-read, but then I suppose only because of the knowledge we now have. I don't know whether post 98 speaks in his favour in hindsight - choosing between Greenie and Hui, both of whom he'd largely considered innocent through the Day. Not really any benefit to a Pitchwolf pushing for one over the other, and if a wolf would have known it made no difference, but then, it made no difference, so a Pitchwolf could have gone either way anyway. Pointed out Lottie's inconsistent voting plans in post 142 and questioned her on it. Suggests there is a wolf in Boro, Kath, Legate, Lommy, Sori. As this is half the village, it's hardly much of a stretch to think he's right! Out of those, has Kath (for focus on sally) and Legate (for suggesting not lynching someone he finds suspicious) as possibilities for voting. Would have been willing to vote Kath, Legate, Boro, Hui. Suggests GhostForm's comments may actually have meant the people who didn't get a vote, similar to his argument yesterDay. Then says he's wrong given GhostForm's seeming to confirm Boro's version is right. If so, how does Pitch now feel about the Pitch/sally/Morsul potential choice? Ah, suspicious of Morsul in post 303. Votes: Hui (last, and made no difference to the lynch) Hui (already ahead and sealed his fate, so no impact again) Legate - post 16 points out Hui and Greenie for focusing in on Boro and pointless day 1s. It is worth noting that they were the only two to have really said anything about another person at all at this point. Then continues to focus on them in post 26, keeping up the idea that Greenie was rewording the suspicions of others for herself, and that Hui was overfocused on Boro and day 1s. Suggested a Hui/Boro pairing. Ends up suspicious of Greenie, Hui and Pitch overall in post 57. Interestingly names Pitch as Cobbler, which I know we'd thrown around during the Day a couple of times but we knew there wasn't one so if this was really how Legate was feeling about Pitch I'm surprised that didn't go anywhere. Vote analysis in post 124 suggested Lommy, Hui, Pitch and Boro as having possibly suspicious votes. Post 137 seems to sum up to Hui and Lottie being worrisome based on their posting, and then Boro for his antics. Then backtracks on Hui due to their latest post. In post 168 thinks one of Pitch/Lottie likely to be a wolf and suggests Pitch the more likely candidate. Now we know it isn't Lottie, how do you feel about Pitch? Worried about Soriman's vote which was rather oddly reasoned. Has Pitch, Boro then maybe Hui as lynch options. Votes: Greenie (first vote for her 5 people in) Hui (puts them into the lead) Hmmm - I don't know. I think I'm being drawn into seeing a sally/Lommy/Pitch pack. sally I think is a wolf regardless of the other two, and Lommy/Pitch seemed to coincide a fair bit when I was reading through. I think that I started off with a feeling that Lommy was suspicious though (perhaps because I think sally is a wolf, and Lommy seems to be quite diligently trying to avoid making a decision there) so that may have coloured my opinions. With that said, Pitch has a voting record that is both squeaky clean and damning at the same time, and Lommy brought Hui in as a third candidate on Day 2. But then Legate really had the strongest effect on the Hui lynch there and did cross post with Lommy. I don't know. But sally/Lommy/Pitch is where I'm at currently.
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04-25-2021, 12:16 PM | #306 | |
Haunting Spirit
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Quote:
I'm leaning more towards Legate or Pitch but I need to re-read some of the thread, some of those legate posts are long and slippery.
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04-25-2021, 12:19 PM | #307 | ||
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
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04-25-2021, 12:22 PM | #308 | |
Dead Serious
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04-25-2021, 12:23 PM | #309 |
Wight of the Old Forest
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I've had a brief look through Morsul's and sally's posts.
Morsul: It struck me that on D1 he had Kath among his top suspects for her early vote, admitting it could have been based on her time zone but she could be using this as an easy defense. Then toDay he casts an early vote himself and defends it saying "A wolf can’t vote first if breaks their bandwagon power." Double standard much? He has been very vocal pushing the idea that Form was killed by a wolf pack including sally under the assumption that he was the Seer and dreamed her. If, on the other hand, the pack had killed Form to frame sally they'd want to make sure to keep mentioning how the kill pointed to her, which could be what Morsul is doing. He also suspected Lottie yesterDay and speculated she might be packmates with sally and Hui. As we now know two of these three were innocent I'm wary of his dogged pursuit of the third. Last not last, I'm not a fan of his plans in his first post toDay, especially not on the "let's all vote together" as above. sally: Nothing at all on D1. D2 she trusted Boro and myself on gut feeling, suspected Lommy (again, gut feeling) and Lottie (found her too agressive for an Ordlote), no idea about Huri, Sori and Legate. She thought I had some great points about Lottie, found her more suspicious the more she talked and ended up voting her. Now if sally is a wolf who was pressed for time yesterDay, piggybacking on my points against Lottie would have been an easy way to justify her vote, and also to justify going after Lottie rather than Lommy if Lommy is another wolf. Also buddying up to me. It's a tough call. I want to suspect Morsul but how much of it is just because I often find his way of thinking weird? Overall the impression I get from him is posting what goes through his mind and confound the consequences. I want to trust sally but I can see her more easily as a sly and manipulative wolf. Blergh.
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04-25-2021, 12:30 PM | #310 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Double standard criticism is fair except the numbers and strategy on day one va day three are vastly different.
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04-25-2021, 12:37 PM | #311 | |
Haunting Spirit
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I do not believe Morsul is a wolf and think his bandwagon excuse for an early vote holds some sway when you consider the wolves will win if we get this wrong. Edit: Are you guys calling it a crossed post when you replied without seeing the most recent reply?
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"And thou, Melkor, shalt see that no theme may be played that hath not its uttermost source in me, nor can any alter the music in my despite... ". The Silmarillion - Ainulindalë |
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04-25-2021, 12:50 PM | #312 | |||
Laconic Loreman
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Oof...I've racked my brain too much on this so going to let it be for now and think on the task at hand. Quote:
I'm more worried of sally's reaction, which looked like a concession and resignation that she will be lynched today. I just can't see an innocent sally reacting that way, even one that has been very busy so far, because she would know that if she is innocent and lynched, without the Ranger, it's over. Particularly with she stated she was "inclined to believe Morsul is a misguided innocent" which means, an innocent sally *should* have started suspecting Pitch. But she does not do this, does not say anything about Pitch, just seemed resigned to her fate and tried to guilt trip us into thinking it would be too obvious to kill Form Night 1 if she was a wolf. This could mean, Morsul is a wolf who voted for his mate sally, because there was already a plan to sacrifice herself if she was in trouble today. Although Morsul's hasty vote doesn't seem to be wolf-on-wolf, and if they are both wolves, why would Morsul not vote for Pitch? *seconded the bleurgh*
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04-25-2021, 12:56 PM | #313 |
Blossom of Dwimordene
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Yes.
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04-25-2021, 01:03 PM | #314 | |
Wight of the Old Forest
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Quote:
I can see sally and Lommy being in a pack, as Kath suggests (though obviously not with me). I think I can also see a tandem between Kath and Morsul - Kath brought up the idea that Form's death points to sally, and Morsul keeps pushing it, also from the above trio Kath picks me and sally as her wolf choices but says nothing (as far as I see) about Morsul. Actually, as per Form's message we don't know whether there were one or more werewolves among the "five you have measured", do we?
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04-25-2021, 01:13 PM | #315 | |
Dead Serious
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Quote:
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04-25-2021, 01:15 PM | #316 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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For Boro, I wasn't resigned so much as in a lot of pain and didn't want to lash out unnecessarily, so I went out of my way not to blame Morsul.
I still think Morsul is a misguided innocent, but that misguided vote will cost us the game. Don't make his mistake. Vote for almost literally anyone else. (AKA Here I am again.)
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04-25-2021, 01:28 PM | #317 | ||
Wight of the Old Forest
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Quote:
Quote:
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04-25-2021, 01:32 PM | #318 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
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Not doing quote yet, but a list for now. Obviously I was wrong about Lottie, and we have more information now, so I've done a little rearranging. Sticking with two categories since it's later in the Day.
Would vote.... Kath Legate Lommy Sori Wouldn't vote.... Boro Morsul Pitch Quotes incoming.
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04-25-2021, 01:53 PM | #319 |
Wight of the Old Forest
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OK, sally, if I understand you right then you, Boro and Morsul are all innocent, as well as myself (which I knew already). Of course I'd be happy to believe that.
But then what of the message of the Dead that seems to say one of you, Morsul and me is a wolf? Do the Dead lie?
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04-25-2021, 02:02 PM | #320 |
Wight of the Old Forest
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Yes, and an early vote toDay is much more dangerous than an early vote on D1. You realise if the wolves all pile on your vote and sally is first to get 4 votes, then even if the rest of us all vote a wolf it's still game over in case she's innocent, right?
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