Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Macalaure]

Writing stuff down as I go through the early day posting.

There's something odd going on in #247,248,250:
First, Sally suggests Rune might have been a wolf killed by the other wolves. I'm not following her reasoning really. Also, I don't think that's their priority yet.
Then Morm is all over it for this reason, which is ok, but also because she's "trying to make a case against a dead man". How else are we going to figure something out at this point before we get any evidence back from the dead?
Then Lottie is all over morm for being "weirdly defensive", making him highly suspicious. I get criticizing him, but that's too quick over too little.

...aaand then Greenie mentions the exact same thing, just more eloquently. Well, actually not the exact same thing, since I'm raising half an eyebrow at morm, too.


Firefoot, I really don't think you can base any suspicions on whether people wanted a tied vote or not. I mean, you yourself give reason why both goodies and baddies could be for or against it.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

He spends a lot of time on statistics, which could be an innocent actually being helpful or a wolf trying to look helpful without actually contributing to the discussion of who’s who

I'll gladly admit that I wasn't actually helpful yet at that point. I even admitted it yesterDay. It was early-ish Day1, and a good part of the village hadn't even posted yet.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Seems easily swayed (#168, #188) – bandwagoning? Or just confused innocent.

Because I read what other people post and it changes my opinion of them? Shocker...

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Then at the end he seems almost gleeful about Nogrod’s death, which sat poorly with me.

I wasn't gleeful. I feel genuinely bad for the man. In the last dead thread -type game, he was lynched right away early on, too.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The tone of this, now, seems oddly confident of how the wolves reasoned and oddly specific.

I suspected Rune yesterDay because his tone felt off. Then I realized it might be because he's gifted, so I backed off quietly. I guess I'm projecting my thoughts on the wolves?

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir.

That's why the later Nog votes (Eomer, Shasta, Sally) bother me more than the earlier ones (Boro, tp, maybe Loslote). For the later it was an easy way to pile votes, for the earlier it was a risk.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I love that Macalaure took the trouble to consider that I might be a gifted before he decided to vote for me.

I didn't consider it, I dismissed it.

Originally Posted by Legate

I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!!

First rule of Werewolf: Don't do what the phantom tells you to do.
Can we edit the werewolf sticky?

Actually, though, the beginning of Legate's post 270 doesn't sit right with me. It's almost all about why the phantom was the one and only logical choice for the wolves (highly debateable), and then he concludes that phantom must have been a wolf because both packs didn't go for him (jumping to conclusion). I mean, come on.

Originally Posted by Legate

One thing is also that I am not sure how much would WWs try to save a fellow by a bandwagon in this game in such a visible manner.

Without having roles revealed, they might be able to get away with it for longer than usual. Unfortunately.

Originally Posted by Legate

there probably would be at least one baddie among the Nog voters - regardless of Nog's actual role and the role of the bandwagon. Just too good a bandwagon to pass,

What makes it any better than the other bandwaggons? It was rushed, last minute, and awfully obvious. I'd actually say it was a bad one to hide in.


About phantom hinting at hunter-ism with his "kill me" post. Hunters have awfully bad chances early in the game, and the phantom should know this, and therefore would not make a post like that until he has a thorough grasp on who to take down with him, which I don't think he had yet. Of course, this doesn't mean the wolves didn't interpret it this way.


Previewing my post... what an ugly mess of quotes and comments. I offer apologies.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Just that now he's dead he seems like an ordo to me, while when he was alive, I was more unsure. Does this make sense? I'm not sure that's legit though, as like I said, I'm so used to only innocent being Night killed that this game seems to mess with my head even more than I thought. I found Sally's case against Dead Son of Bjarne really absurd too until I remembered we have absolutely no idea of his role whatsoever thanks to the nature of this particular game.

I'm inclined to think he was an ordo myself, just because he was *so* bossy yesterDay... but I am finding it hard not to assume unknown dead people are ordos anyway, I suppose because that's the default.

I've been looking through yesterDay and will have more to say in a moment.

Edit:x'd with Mac.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

[Firefoot]

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 280 and 281)?

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.


Mac and Sally top my list of suspects. Agan is a third because of the reaction yesterday to what I considered a bit of a joke but she is working at acquitting herself and I feel slightly better. There are others such as Eomer and Boro that I'd like to hear more from.

[Boromir88]

All we essentially know at this point is Rune and tp were not part of the same pack (considering the narration says they were "mauled" I'm also going with the interpretation they were killed by both packs). Which is a crummy position to be in, and we won't have any solid info (possibly) until the next DAY.

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

For the time being I'm assuming both Rune and the phantom were ordo, until there comes a time when we might discover otherwise. I can't recall playing with Rune in a long time, I didn't get any wolf-vibes from him. Rune seemed to side with the phantom on having no-lynch and criticized Nogrod, so it's possible one pack killed him to set up the Nog voters. (I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

The most likely wolf, of the 3 dead, I think is Nogrod and I would love for the Dead to check him tonight, but that's choice isn't up to me.

I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.

For the time being though, I'm going to go with the assumption Rune and the phantom are ordos.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

In response to Greenie's question about the Dead sending information. They will be able to find out one of their roles during NIGHT 3, and I always assumed just to use the previous day's votes. For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

OK that makes more sense. Also can we rechristen the first one BandwAgan? And also Nogawagon would be a palindrome. (Also I should shut up.)

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

One small point: Lommy's post #271 mistakenly quotes me. I don't know who posted those words but it certainly wasn't me.

Obviously, this means shenanigans and that we should kill Lommy today.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's hard to post from a phone, .

Anyway, Legate has co-opted my project for the day, which was to look into the possibility of the Nog voters saving Agan with their votes. Bah.

As for my own vote yesterday (as it's been mentioned as suspicious by Firefoot and Mac, I believe) - I'm pretty sure I mentioned why I was suspicious of Nog fairly early on (for me, anyway) because of that comment of his about ordos being fine with being lynched. It looked like he was setting up to be able to suspect anyone who was defensive about being lynched (as he actually did, with Phantom) and was the most suspicious thing I saw yesterday.

Also, I believe most of the latter votes on Nog were made at roughly the same time, though it's hard to go back and look at cross votes on my phone.

More later. I'll be checking in periodically.

[Nerwen]

So I got caught up with things and haven't had time to do the more detailed analysis of yesterDay I'd planned. So just a few comments.

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.

Then we have Form Nilping himself- some seem to think this looks innocent, but really I cannot imagine why anyone, good or evil, would give himself the third vote at that point.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

Originally Posted by mormegil

Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.

I'll third this. There's something wrong about him. Maybe I'm biased by the fact that the last time I was in a game with someone who prattled "helpfully" on and on and on about statistical probabilities, that person turned out to have fur and fangs. (Mac himself must have known that what he was doing was an academic excercise with no real practical value.) And then there's the thing I noticed toDay (#242)- it does seems to me to have that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion vibe.

Edit:x'd since morm at #285; clarification;word left out.

[Macalaure]

I looked phantom's post over again, and didn't find anything that looked like a hint at seer dreams hidden in his list. I didn't exactly expect to find one either, though. Since, like most, I think, I don't think he looked wolfish, I assume he was killed for one or both of these reasons:
-they were afraid of a vocal, innocent-looking player organizing the village against them
-they thought they spotted a hunter hint

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation?

I read over my own post again before replying, and maybe I sounded more tense than intended (I ran out of smileys. ), but calling it really defensively? Maybe I'm being touchy here, but I don't like that wording.

I mean, if people give arguments against me, I defend myself. Especially if the arguments are not very good.

Originally Posted by mormegil

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.

Well, that's not something one can defend oneself against.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Oh, and I missed you too, my sun in splendour.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Lottie, they should try to knock off a potential threat; however, who is a potential threat to the wolves. At this stage it would not be the other pack. There is the obvious chance of attrition in the wolves numbers through daily lynching. I can't imagine that the wolves would not try and target the seer first or another gifted. I found it odd that Sally (Satanisaloser for Firefoot ) came in and almost immediately began assuming Rune was a wolf. There wasn't much reasoning given as to why, it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion in her mind. That was odd. I also think your defense of the position is odd too. However, of the two I would be more likely to suspect Sally.

There are two reasons why a wolf pack might decide to kill someone in this game: a) they think the person is a Gifted, and b) they think the person was a member of the other pack - and yes, in that order, I fully acknowledge that. In this case, however, I do not think Rune looked like a Gifted. He certainly didn't look like a Seer, anyway, at least as far as I can tell, and I haven't picked up on anything else, either. But the wolves must have thought he was something, because I don't think this is a game where no-trace kills are going to be a priority on Night 2.

Furthermore, I think the fact that the second person killed was tp is telling. I doubt the wolves thought tp was Gifted - unless they figured he was bluffing, or double bluffing, or whatever, but that's a hard loop to get into when it's all centered around tp. My thought is that, if the pack which killed tp had had a solid lead on a Gifted, they would have gone with that over tp. Therefore, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to say that neither pack had a solid lead on a Gifted last Night, and that both went with other options.

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.

The fact that you (morm) were so quick to jump down Sally's throat for suggesting it and are so confident now about what the wolves are thinking suggests to me that either Sally is right and you didn't think anyone would come up with it, or that Sally is wrong and you, knowing what is right, consider anything which is not correct to be absurd and suspicious. But the only people who can say "of course she is wrong" are the people who know, because they were there when the decision was made.

I will not likely be back much before deadline. This will be the only day like that this game (fingers crossed), but I'll have to vote basically now or risk not getting back in time or having to vote sloppily after only having about a half an hour to read the thread. My vote at this point will probably be for morm, unless something else comes up in the next five minutes.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My internet came back up, so I thought I'd go back with my newfound ability to quote things and clarify what I was saying about the Nog votes -

Boro - 8:49
Phantom, Lottie - 8:55
Eomer - 8:56
Shasta - 8:57 (crossed with Eomer)
Sally - 8:59

So, Nog ended up receiving the bulk of the votes against him within five minutes of the deadline.

Edit: X'ed with Lottie. Also, when I said "quote" I meant "copy and paste".

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, that's not something one can defend oneself against.

Sure there is, shave the fur and see a healer. Honestly, in the game where we don't know the identities yet, I have little to go on other than my hunches and intuition, which tells me you are a wolf. The only defense, in my mind, is to stop feeling like a wolf. You have many hours to relieve me of my suspicion of you. Some things like your grasping at straws comment in #242 just nag at me. It screams that you are trying to sound confused when you are not.

[Loslote]

++morm

For reasons stated above.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't think we can write off the idea that a wolf pack would target someone for potentially being a member of the other pack. I think trying to pigeonhole any and all Night kills into the suspected Gifted mold could, at best, deprive us of potential information, and at worst, mislead us. This is not to say that Rune couldn't have been targeted for looking Gifted. Maybe the wolves picked up on something I really don't see. But I think assuming that that is the case is a mistake.

I don't think the idea should be written off either, however as I've indicated it's much more likely they were trying to target a potential seer than a wolf from a different pack. What bothered me about Sally's post was how she immediately jumped to that conclusion that "Well they must have thought Rune was a wolf". Why must that have been the immediate conclusion? You don't strike me as suspicious because you are looking at other sides and sticking your neck out a bit. But when such an early post comes to an immediate and seemingly definitive conclusion that is somewhat counter-intuitive and the other possibility isn't even consider, yes I will consider that suspicious.

x'ed with Lottie's vote for me

[Boromir88]

What's your theory then? If you don't buy Sally's "Rune was killed for looking like a wolf" theory (understandable, I don't either) and you also don't think he was killed because the wolves thought he was a potential gifted, do you have any better suggestions? ~Greenie

As Rune didn't say a whole lot and even with his vote it was for someone he said he didn't want to see lynched (he was in the tie-votes camp), I'm thinking one pack decided to go no trace and are trying to set out an argument to make the reasons to kill Rune look like more and thus steer the lynch today.

Then we have the Nog-voters. Did Boro or Sally ever give reasons for their votes at all? If they did I missed it.~Nerwen

See 164:
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=164

Nog stood out to me as kind of suspicious, just the way he was insisting that he didn't buy my reason for wanting to tie-votes so we don't lynch the Seer, because the odds of lynching the Seer were miniscule. In which case, I'm in the "never give me the odds" camp. I was shooting for a tied-vote, because I think that would have been the best Day 1 choice and with the late voters expressing they didn't want to vote for Agan or Form, I went with someone who I was suspicious of, in hopes there was enough support to tie the vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Sure there is, shave the fur and see a healer. Honestly, in the game where we don't know the identities yet, I have little to go on other than my hunches and intuition, which tells me you are a wolf. The only defense, in my mind, is to stop feeling like a wolf. You have many hours to relieve me of my suspicion of you. Some things like your grasping at straws comment in #242 just nag at me. It screams that you are trying to sound confused when you are not.

Fair enough.

One thing though: Since the wolves in this game are wolf-hunting just like everyone else, they don't, as usual, have to sound more confused than they really are. I simply meant to state that some of the premises I was drawing conclusions from were rather tenuous.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Boro, were you suspicious of anyone else yesterday?

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I saw Lommy's side of the argument with Agan, so that made me suspicious of Agan (which today so far her and sally are the ones rising to the top of my suspects. I have to look more carefully what's going onbetween morm and Lottie). However, I was trying to employ a "wait and see" strategy with Agan and I was keeping in mind trying for a no lynch.

I'm disappointed it didn't work out that way, but not devastated as I don't think Nog's lynch cripples us. That is to say, of the 3 dead, I think it's most likely that he's a wolf, but I also don't think we lynched the Seer. I would hope the Dead want to check him on their first chance, because I don't think we can get much useful information knowing the roles of who the packs' killed. Knowing the roles of who we lynch will be more important.

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't think lynching someone today changes the odds of the Seer dying toDay or toNight all that appreciably, Boro. I especially don't think it changes the odds enough to forego a 1-in-4 chance of killing a wolf today. Someone more numbers-oriented than I could run the math on that, probably, but the fact that our lynch potential is limited is enough for me to think we should take a shot at a wolf today.

- and you never mentioned it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The Agan-Lommy spat. Why did so *many* people claim it "looked like wolf-on-wolf", "one of them must be a wolf", etc. I mean, yeah, it's possible, but reading it toDay it looks like just, well, a spat. And I've too often seen wolves circling a brawl between innocents...

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -

- and you never mentioned it.

It's not a case of anyone arguing for a no-lynch is innocent, and anyone arguing to lynch is suspicious. It was the way he argued it:

I do not like the "let's not lynch anyone toDay" -meme (backed by the idea that we might lynch our Seer who is very important in this game) as the chances of lynching our seer are minuscule compared to any normal game and there are such loads of wolves around - and if we were to lynch the seer s/he could act on it before things get nasty thus at least securing another two dreams the next Night when the Ranger covered it for her/him...

There 24 players of which 1 is the Seer. The chances of hitting the Seer on D1 lynching = 1/24.

THere are 3+3 wolves in this game. The chances of getting a wolf on D1 lynching = 6/24 = 1/4. And add to that the practical stats we've just seen (a village is slightly better than random in picking up the villains), so yeah. Let's try and hunt a wolf toDay.
~Nog #96

I read it as Nog arguing to even consider the possibility of lynching the Seer day 1 with a 1/24 chance is wrong. I had stated before that I wanted to vote in a manner that would ensure we don't accidentally lynch the Seer, because to go into Day 2 with 4 dreams, instead of 2, can be a major advantage. An advantage and arguably most powerful Seer any village has had.

You stated it as a difference of opinion, which I generally accepted sounding like a reasonable difference of opinion. Give me some credit for being open-minded. There's more variables into my suspects than agreeing with me about whether to lynch or not.

We wouldn't have lost one of our lynch chances, we have the same number of chances depending on the size of the village, the only way you can gain more chances is Ranger save, or the packs target the same person. We would just be delaying one chance by a day, and I was swayed more by Form's argument to let the wolves make the first move, instead of taking a blind shot.

[Rikae]

Maybe my inclination to be suspicious of the Nog-wagon comes from the fact that I, myself, thought he looked quite innocent. His arguments against
the message-sending between threads seemed like normal 5 am Nog stuff. I mean, it looks like he overlooked some points while being quite vehement about
what he thought was best for the village & for everybody's enjoyment of the game in general. He jumped to conclusions a bit.
Why would a wolf act like that? As an elaborate way of looking innocent which also draws attention to himself? Seems unwise, not something Nogwolf would do.
Wanting to mess up communication between the dead and living? Well, a wolf could do that later, and more subtly.
Going on record as being against it on Day 1 just doesn't look wolfish to me.

Form also looks somewhat good for volunteering for the tie vote and self-voting, but I wouldn't put it entirely past a wolf. Doing so early on a wolf could
reasonably expect another wagon, with more behind it, to overtake them - especially with so many people opposing the idea of a tie.

The wishy-washiness of Firefoot's suspicions is the sort that often
strikes me as wolfy fishing "let's put forward some candidates but not commit, see if anyone nibbles".

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm getting suspicious of these couple folks who seem to be pushing Rune was looking gifted and that's why he was killed. I didn't see anything that would make me think Rune was the Seer...
I guess he could be one of the other gifteds, but seriously, nothing in his posts stood out that he was leaving gifted clues.

Well, I thought he might be gifted, because of his reaction to the Day 1 lynch/no lynch business. It's why I made such a point of "we shouldn't lynch people who always look suspicious"
- I was thinking specifically of Rune. I mean, there are a couple others, but after seeing his reaction I particularly thought he shouldn't be lynched.

Anyway, on the Nog wagon:

Boro voted Nog.

Phantom said:

Originally Posted by phantom

I still want to lynch Nog (and I don't understand how he has zero votes), but it would take five votes at this point.
(EDIT: Now he does have one.)

That... that's a pretty clear statement of intent, a sort of call to arms. I begin to wonder if:
tp was a wolf thinking Nog was gifted, calling the other wolves to the "hunt"? Seems far fetched. Or...
tp was innocent, Nog was a wolf, and they killed him last Night as a possible seer? I mean, everyone's going "tp was killed for being tp" or even "for asking to be killed",
but those seem like flimsy reasons.
It could be also that tp, as a wolf, thought he saw an opposing wolf in Nog.
There is, by the way, some benefit to a wolf in being instrumental in lynching another wolf. Most likely the lynched wolf's role will eventually come out, after all.
What I don't buy is that tp actually suspected Nog for opposing his plan.

I voted Lommy. I was hoping to get another candidate going there, as I found her argument with Agan reflected worse on her than on Agan - but nobody notices me, boo hoo.
Mac crossed with me to vote Agan.

The phantom votes Nog.

Now, this is the thing: anyone who wanted to save Agan at this point could have gone for Form, or for Lommy who was even with Nog.

Also, anyone who wanted to save Nog had Lommy, Form and Agan as options.

Loslote votes for Nog within a minute of tp.

Originally Posted by Loslote

because I'm much more confident in his guilt than in Agan's, and I'm feeling a little stubborn today, even if it probably won't happen.

By doing so she puts him ahead of Lommy and even with Form. If the vote was crossed, she would have thought it was even with Lommy and behind Form.
Lottie, was this a crossed vote or not? You didn't mark it as one.

Eomer votes for Nog, giving him the 4th vote, to Agan's 5. His reasoning...

Originally Posted by Eomer

This is total chaos, but because I don't buy the whole Agan/Lommy thing as wolvish - and because Form is probably innocent

is something I could see coming from either a wolf or an innocent.

Shasta votes Nog, crossed with Eomer.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It ended up being between Agan and Nog for me, and Nog's possible groundwork-laying for suspecting anyone on the grounds of not wanting to be lynched looks more suspicious than Agan's possible slip and general defensiveness.

This also looks more or less reasonable. I don't agree with it, but it doesn't seem particularly suspicious.

At this point Nog and Agan are tied, and along comes Sally and decides the lynch (she could also have left it a tie, if she wished).

Ok, so, a couple thoughts:

The Nog-wagon probably wasn't about protecting Agan.
It is possible that someone early in it wanted to protect Lommy (tp, Lottie) or Form (Lottie, Eomer).
Lottie and Sally need a closer look, I think.

That's all for now. I probably won't be around again until this evening.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Nerwen: I've just had a re-read of yesterday's action because, honestly, that is how I remembered it; but hardly anyone is suspecting wolf-on-wolf.

The closest is Form who says that at least one is probably a wolf. Rikae noted that it might look wolf-on-wolf in a different game, but given the rules of this game it would be senseless. Can't see much else.

I had also thought to find some baddies on the outskirts of this Finnish tussle but it's not so obvious.

Add Nilp and McCaber... I'd say that counts as "many". And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon. My point is that it all seemed to be built up out of very little, even by Day One standards.

Edit: x'd with Rikae.

[Mithalwen]

I will confess it was a lazy vote. I genuinely thought Agan was pulling a swifty and then when it was explained I really was too tired and too hacked off (remembering too late why I gave up playing werewolf) but sure that cotriving a no lynch would still be counterproductive as well as feeling to my instince unsporting.

So Agan was at that point ahead anyway so... yeah

Incidentally Nerwen, why do you think from the narrative indicates the lovers are still alive? I thought the itch thing might inidicate something but what I am not sure. The known unknown makes guesses far from educated. Tnighthe maulings certainly suggest both packs killed.

That of course doesn't exonerate either. I can't help thinking that instituting some strategy that basically pretty much asks innocents to take one for the team..or at least the gifted is quite a lot of help to the wolves as the ordos. Lots of lobotomised voting leaving no audit trail and narrowing the field for night kills.

[Nerwen]

Okay. I have to vote now, so-

++Macalaure
is the the best suspicion I have right now. Reasons already stated.

Just to complicate things, I am not entirely easy with the other two people who suspect him (morm and Firefoot either. Ah well. Running out of time.

I will try to be back later, though.
Edit:x'd with Mith.

[Nerwen]

Mith, toDay's narration said,

The Wolves will stop PMing now. The Lovers may continue to do so.

.

[Mithalwen]

Oh dear I didn't read down to the destructions. Useless... Thank you.

[Formendacil]

Posting from a break at work on my phone--spent time better spent eating catching up. So advance apologies for typos and brevity.

In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates. It seems an outside chance, regardless, but if so, it would mean most of one pack would have voted pre-Nogwagon, suggesting that if there was a wolfish pileon in the Nogwagon, it was between members of a single pack, meaning thatan analysis of the Nogwaggoneers and only there correspondence with each other COULD suggest the composition of a pack.

That is probably too much weight for the slender evidence that is the Agan/Lommy dispute to hold up, but it's gone through my head and for now I think I'll likely look for wolves in the Nogwaggon.


A heads up that while I shpuld be around later a fair bit, I could be stuck on my phone until the deadline.

[Macalaure]

Nerwen's “And Mac and Mith just sort of crawl on to the waggon.” irked me, so I looked back to refresh my memory of events, and then I got carried away and it turned into this.

Agan, Lommy, and everyone around.

#66 Agan jokes about killing Europeans
#67 morm jokes back
#69 Agan misunderstands morm's joke in a way that, to me, strongly suggests a wolf slip
#70 Lommy crosses with Agan, and in the edit is immediately notices it
#74 Greenie thinks Agan was trolling, not slipping
Then the whole thing disappears for a whole stretch of time. Nobody comments on it on page 3 at all.
#123,127 Agan posts, not commenting on Lommy's #70
#129 Lommy returns and makes her case against Agan. A case that I consider solid.
#131 Yours truly lists Agan as suspicious, refering to #69 (crossing with Lommy, which in light of Nerwen's suspicion is probably important)
#139 Lommy lists Agan as suspicious
#144 Agan replies to Lommy's case. Now she does quote #70. She states she understood morm's joke and simply continued it (could be). She also asks what a wolf would gain from her behavior, which doesn't make sense, since the accusation is about a wolf slip.
#150 morm says that he took Agan's #69 as a joke, but that her behavior since raises eyebrows
#155 Agan votes Lommy.
#157 Lommy votes Agan and defends her case. Some of her point 3) seems a bit far-fetched. It's worth noting that Lommy is still around afterwards to make a few more posts.
#159 morm states again that Agan is behaving oddly
#165 Shasta states that he didn't see Agan's slip, but suspects her due to her reaction
#166 Lommy replies to Agan one last time.
#168 Yours truly states his intent to vote for Agan
#170 Form says that their argument is fishy, but that we will only see the truth in a few Days. States they could both be wolves, one could be a wolf, or both could be innocent (duh), but suspects one is a wolf (maybe I thought was most likely innocent too quickly, because this post looks bad)
#172 Nogrod takes up Lommy's case
#174 McCaber says he didn't like Lommy's reaction, but felt it innocent. Agan's reaction felt opportunistic/trying to provoce reaction to him.
#178 After not commenting on the exchange in his detailed list before, Legate now comments. If one is a wolf, it's Agan to him, but most likely both innocent.
#181 Nog votes Agan, not mentioning the argument, but citing different reasons (doesn't mean he discarded the older points, and is probably just adding to them?)
#182 Mith comments on a different post of Agan, suspecting misinformation by her (smelling a bandwaggon and trying to jump on without being too obvious about it? Nah, I think she's genuine.)
#184 Rikae says Agan-Lommy looks wolf-on-wolf, no explanation
#186 list by Form: Lommy too defensive but probably innocent, Agan more innocent than guilty
#188 I'm feeling like repeating myself and say that I'm still going to vote for Agan
#190 Form votes himself. Also thinks that Agan could be guilty, but not strongly enough.
#193 Mith votes Agan
#194 tp needs stuff explained to him
#196 Lottie sees where the Agan suspicions come from, but she's not her top choice
#197 tp wants to vote Nog over Agan/Form, but only with support
#200 Firefoot thinks the argument was odd, but doesn't know which looks more suspicious
#202 Lottie offers to go along with tp
#203 Eomer thinks both Lommy and Agan are most likely innocent
#204 McCaber votes Agan. Out of the ones he'd considered, she had the best chance of getting lynched
#205 Lottie tells Eomer not to count Lommy/Agan out just because they were loud
#206 Boro calls Agan's #69 an innocent(!) Freudian slip
#208 Rikae says she suspected Agan earlier but doesn't now anymore (but Agan hasn't posted in a while, what changed your mind?) Lists Lommy as an option for her
#210 Nilp “echoes others' sentiment that it looks wolf-on-wolf” (thought Nilp was pretty innocent so far, but I'm not liking this one that much)
#215 Rikae votes for Lommy
#216 I vote for Agan
#220 Lottie feels more strongly about Nogrod than Agan and votes him
#222 Eomer votes for Nogrod because he doesn't buy into Lommy/Agan wolfness (could have picked Form earlier on)
#223 Shasta votes for Nogrod since he's more suspicious than Agan, though it seems like they are both good options to him

Ugh, not going to do the same for toDay, as I originally thought I'd do.

Thoughts:
I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion? It just makes more sense for a wolf who messed up.
I don't see why Lommy is suspicious to some people, and especially the wolf-on-wolf people (Form,Rikae,Nilp) raise eyebrows to me, Form especially. Firefoot's “I don't know who's more suspicious” raises one, too.
Shasta stays a little bit on the fringes, going for Nogrod in the end. Lottie, too.
I don't see Mith's involvement as suspicious. McCaber might look a bit opportunistic, but I don't really think so.
Boro's “innocent Freudian slip” is a red flag I didn't notice before. The way I see it, it was either an innocent joke, or a not-innocent Freudian slip. Or am I seeing something wrong?
Of the others involved, morm, Legate, and Eomer look fine. Greenie's comment could be interpreted wolfishly: trying to calm the flames first, then staying far away once everything's on fire.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Mac

I still think Agan is most likely a wolf, but I'll grant that there's a possibility that she's innocent. But why then was she so upset about Lommy's suspicion?

*raises eyebrow*

Originally Posted by Mac

#184 Rikae says Agan-Lommy looks wolf-on-wolf, no explanation

I don't know how you got that from "it would look wolf-on-wolf but that wouldn't make sense in this game".

Actually, though, I've changed my mind now: wolf-on-wolf does make sense. Like I said in my last post, dead wolves roles will come out eventually, and their comrades would surely prefer not to be linked in the history.

As for why:
Agan made would could have been a slip, Lommy pointed it out, and they argued back and forth about whether it was until everyone else wanted to write them both off. I've done that sort of thing with a packmate myself, before.

But anyway, you're being sloppy (deliberately or not) lumping me in with "the wolf-on-wolf people" when my conclusion, yesterDay, was that it probably wasn't.

[Rikae]

At the end of the day it looked more like Lommy poking around to see if Agan would jump, and then using that against her without thinking twice.

Hence my vote for Lommy.

[Lalaith]

I thought the itch thing might inidicate something but what I am not sure

Yes. And what was this "door is shut" business? Reminds me of the Paths of the Dead. Hmmm.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Yes. And what was this "door is shut" business? Reminds me of the Paths of the Dead. Hmmm.

???

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Boro's “innocent Freudian slip” is a red flag I didn't notice before. The way I see it, it was either an innocent joke, or a not-innocent Freudian slip. Or am I seeing something wrong?

It was rushed wording on my part. With the DL closing down, I was trying to give a quick summary to the phantom to answer why Agan was attracting that many votes. Morm first reacted to Agan's "killing all the Europeans" in what seemed like a joking fashion (I hurriedly phrased that as "innocent Freudian slip"). And then Lommy has explained that her suspicions weren't based on the slip itself, but Agan's reaction to it.

As for why:
Agan made would could have been a slip, Lommy pointed it out, and they argued back and forth about whether it was until everyone else wanted to write them both off. I've done that sort of thing with a packmate myself, before.~Rikae

I'm not sure what two pack mates would gain by that argument on Day 1. I would think the fact that we wouldn't know anyone's role upon their death would make wake mate-on-mate voting less likely, since there really is no confirmation on what looks dubious/wolvish in a lynch until at least a day later. And I would also think with the threat of a rival pack that would be gunning for wolves, that the internal dynamics of a pack would be really tight-knit.

It was Morm who first pointed out Agan's slip, and Lommy went with Agan's reaction to morm as the most suspicious thing she found on Day 1. So, I think it would implicate morm more as a possible pack mate than Lommy. (That is, mormwolf trying to point something out and be helpful, but not expecting much to come of it)

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Rikae

???

In the narration.

One individual had even developed a persistent itch due to the damp from the doors being permanently shut.

I thought of this. "The way is shut.
It was made by those who are Dead.
And the Dead keep it.
The way is shut."

Probably just me being fanciful.

[Rikae]

Boro, I was explaining why I thought it would have looked wolf-on-wolfy in a normal game. Like I just told Mac, my conclusion was that it wasn't, and that Lommy was suspicious.

Originally Posted by Kuru

One individual had even developed a persistent itch due to the damp from the doors being permanently shut.

Hmmm.

Now I wonder if this relates to the secret role. Maybe some kind of cursed/someone who turns gifted eventually?

[Lalaith]

Now I wonder if this relates to the secret role.

Yes, this was precisely what I was wondering.

Also I am still wondering why the Nog bandwaggon only started after he (Nogs) named Agan and Phantom.