Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Galadriel55]

So is this my last post? Can I just say, it's been an absolute pleasure.

Edit: sorry, xed with the DL and the mod.

[Nogrod]

Instead of performing immediately some examinations to find out who’s being infected and who’s not, the Villagers got stuck in discussions on how to actually identify those diseased, and what would be general symptoms that could reveal it. But interestingly enough, from there they went on lengths discussing different approaches on how to vote for it (sic!), and even if everyone should keep personal lists of their suspicions to be read out aloud to others. There were even separate discussions on how the quarantined would do in their seclusion and should they be listened to, or whether they should look for other diseases now that they had started to think of health-issues in the first place.

Even if most of the Day went on with people showing a brave face and acting light-heartedly, it was easy to feel the heightening tensions inside everyone’s heart – well, most everyone. And to the dismay of Húrin, there were even a few minor brawls between some of the people. It was not fitting that people would go after each other under his roof.

Especially Andróg's abrasiveness soon started to rub many people the wrong way. In the end it did it so badly, that many people seemed to have forgotten that they were searching for physically sick, not mentally repellent people. But when there in the end was a vote – against Húrin’s and Huor’s wishes who had pledged for unanimity to the end - Andróg was the one looking to get the vote.

As a last straw Andróg pleaded the less powerful of the village to save him for he would protect them against the malice of both Morgoth and the lords. That didn't work, but a wildly protesting Andróg was taken away.

~*~

There were not that many suitable places in the village to hold possibly numerous people in quarantine, as any small hut would not do. Finally, Húrin decided it would be his Hall where the presumed sick would be isolated from others. The healthy people could gather outside or at the barn, but the sick needed the best.

“They will still be our family, kinsmen and friends, for I fear this decision didn't quite save the day for us yet. So let us give them a decent place to suffer the isolation. I do not see any celebrations we’d need the Hall for anyway.”

Thus Andróg was locked inside the hall and the door was bolted.

It seems many people who wanted him there were right about one thing: he didn’t have the best of the Village in mind. Instead he hated everyone and especially wanted the villagers to drown into the disease.


Galadriel55 was Andróg aka. the Cobbler.


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, The Mod (dead on Night1)

Quarantined

Galadriel55, Andróg, The Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)

Hanging around

Thinlómien
Legate of Amon Lanc
Huinesoron
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Lhunardawen
Inziladun
Kitanna
A Little Green
Boromir88
Urwen
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Macalaure
Rikae
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin


It’s now Night 2

Nightly folks, do your worse / best. The rest, try to sleep if you can.


NB. The characters of the narrations will follow their personalities and commitments based on the legendarium, not the actions or words of the players in the game whom they are paired with. The game you play just directs their destinies and thus creates the narrative.

[Nogrod]

In the morning the Villagers found the Chieftain of Haladin leaning backwards on the stairs of the Great Hall, staring emptily nowhere in particular, pale and sweating, breathing heavily.

“They came to me at Night…”, Haldir forced himself to speak as he saw his father’s face leaning over him. “They took me by surprise and there were too many of them… they blindfolded me and they bit me… they made cuts in me with knives and… they… they licked the wounds…” His voice failed for a moment. “It was a nightmare…”

“Haldir!” Glóredhel ran forwards from the crowd but fell trembling on her knees.

Hareth tried to wrestle her father away from her brother. “You must stay away from him! Father do you hear me!” With the help of Huor’s strong hands they managed to draw the sobbing old man away from his son and heir.

Back in the crowd Morwen hushed Túrin to go and take little Brandir away: “Just go and don’t let him any near his grandparents, please Túrin! You like Brandir, right? It is for his own good he stays away from there! Be a big boy now, go!”

As both Halmir and Glóredhel had been moved farther away from poor Haldir, and little Túrin did take care of Brandir pulling him away from the circle around his grandfather, Húrin stepped forwards. “These are evil tidings. So it’s not only an Evil Breath spreading – there are some cursed people behind it spreading it on purpose! People strong enough to overpower uncle Haldir together”

There was a moment of total silence. A short warble of a chaffinch felt like mockery in their ears. A voice from another world.

“Let’s pull him in to the Hall, but be careful!” Húrin added, looking to his household staff. Looking then around the crowd he added sternly: “We’ll do it”. With that also blind Ragnir nodded. He knew his masters call.

“No, no, godchild…” Haldir murmured under heavy breath. “Don’t you anyone risk yourselves. Your destinies lie higher than withering away in this little village.” He managed a thin smile, even if it wasn’t exactly reassuring, if that was what it was meant to be. “I can creep or crawl in… if you just open the door.” With that he started slowly turning around trying to get on all fours.

Húrin hesitated, but then nodded to his servants, and Sador hurried to open the heavy door to the Hall.

The people watched silently by as Haldir crawled slowly up the few stairs hissing and puffing, clearly in great pain and looking far too weak to make it – but still he did it.

There were tears of compassion in everyone’s eyes when Sador finally closed the door after Haldir had disappeared inside.

It took some time for Húrin to gather himself, but in the end he managed to steady his voice: “Come, eat and drink in the barn to strengthen yourselves. We have a long Day ahead of us.”


~*~

Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)

Quarantined

Galadriel 55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)

Hanging around

Thinlómien
Legate of Amon Lanc
Huinesoron
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Lhunardawen
Inziladun
Kitanna
A Little Green
Boromir88
Urwen
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Macalaure
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin


It is now Day2.

The word is free.

[satansaloser2005]

Well, at least neither of them were the ranger.

Sigh. Now to examine the mess from yesterDay.

[Loslote]

That was some Day 1! I'm glad now that we weren't able to swing the vote, but I do think it's worth looking at those late votes. I know Shasta guessed that G55 was a cobbler, and Infectors might've guessed too, but they didn't know either, and I'm sure they wouldn't have rushed to save someone who claimed to be the Ranger if they had any plausible deniability...

[Loslote]

As a quick reference...

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
Sally -> Brinn (7) (after "ranger reveal")

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

That was some Day 1! I'm glad now that we weren't able to swing the vote, but I do think it's worth looking at those late votes. I know Shasta guessed that G55 was a cobbler, and Infectors might've guessed too, but they didn't know either, and I'm sure they wouldn't have rushed to save someone who claimed to be the Ranger if they had any plausible deniability...

Rikae was the first vote on Brinn, and it must be significant that the wolves went after her. It's far too early for them to have been simply wanting to frame someone.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Rikae was the first vote on Brinn, and it must be significant that the wolves went after her. It's far too early for them to have been simply wanting to frame someone.

After Rikae? My guess is, the wolves thought Rikae looked so innocent after the G55 fight - it's doubtful the cobbler went full tilt after someone they thought could be a wolf - that she wouldn't provide much cover for them. Semi-known innocents can be really powerful, after all.

[Huinesoron]

Alas, poor Rikae. Please think nice thoughts at us from the Quarantine Thread! (With G55... yikes.) I... honestly can't remember who they interacted with, other than the Cobbler, but hopefully someone can turn up a lead there.

I spent... must have been two, three hours during the Night (totally not when I was meant to be working, ahem) combing through Day 1 to try and sort out what the G55 Cobbler reveal... uh, revealed. Obviously Rikae is right there in the middle of the timeline, but I think I mostly looked at the implications for other people, so it will hopefully still be helpful. Once again I have to get to bed, so I'll try for another overview of The Day So Far when I get back.

---

Wow! That was quite a rollercoaster ride. I definitely didn't see Cobbleradriel (Cobbler55?) coming; I think that's because my wolf-lean was initially based on her as part of a Pitch-G55 pack, which doesn't make much sense for a Cobbler.

Now that we know what she was, I want to go back and reread her part in all the events of yesterDay. I'm thinking of the whole GLP thing, and her attacks on Rikae; then I want to look at the Brinn-wagon, and the Cobbler55 lynch, because who moved when on those should be instructive. Since I once again have to leave just after Deadline, I'm writing this overNight, so end of Night/early posts might obsolete some of it.

[b]The GLP[b/] (Down to page 2)

It seems pretty clear G55 brought up the no-vote/fake-vote idea specifically to derail the day. But Legate picking it up and running with it can't have been part of the plan (unless she knows him really well), which still inclines me against suspecting him. Pitch, though… I'm still not convinced by his switch of the blame for the idea from G55 to Legate. I'm not going to impart PitchWolf with supernatural Cobbler-spotting talents, but as I think I said yesterday, he could have been trying to move the focus specifically onto Legate, not off G55.

Looking back, it's striking how much time G55 spends derailing the discussion. On page 2, she wanders off onto QT tactics, potential roles we didn't use, a 'pretend therapy session'... nothing really got traction other than the fake-votes.

The Rikae attack

(Post-Night edit: doesn't look like I considered Rikae so much as how people talked about the fight, so most of this should. Still stand.)

This starts around #127 (G55)/#128 (where Rikae very calmly explains that they just made a mistake). G55 is quite clearly stirring by #137 (which starts with 'Fight! Fight!', and includes her ignoring that Rikae has already explained twice). But… nobody seems to jump onto either side of the fight. Lottie and Ka both say mild things about Rikae not being suspicious, but not attacking G55. Lommy actually IDs G55 as a possible cobbler, but doesn't mention the brewing fight.

Then we hit #147, where G55 opens a full broadside on Rikae. Lottie comes back with suspicions of G55's motives, but not obviously pro-Rikae (and as she says, "I honestly don't really see the motivation for a [G55] ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything".

#163: Pitch suspects Rikae (for suspecting him), but then 'paradoxically' flips and says both they and G55 sound innocent. If PitchWolf did suspect G55 as cobbler (by this point, Lommy had already suggested it, so the idea was out there), then trying to calm the argument and swing opinion against Rikae would be a clever move.

Greenie then comments on the argument, and is anti Chaotic G55. Doesn't read particularly wolfish. Then Mac comes in and says he doesn't know how it all blew up… well, we know that now! Like others, he seems more focussed on calming things down than pinning blame on either of them. Greenie again comes in and sees G55 as a wolf or frustrated ordo… and then, by #195, as Shasta says, the argument has played itself out.

The fact that so few people commented on it as it was ongoing surprises me - it felt like such a big thing! But it was mostly just a vocal Cobbler doing her best to incite a flame war.

Okay, that's it for the direct Cobbler55 stuff; on to the lynch.

The Brinn-wagon

As I said yesterDay, I didn't know where this came from, and didn't trust it one bit. Let's see if that changes:

(Note: because this got so incredibly long, I'm going to set it in a quote-box. I'll put my takeaways underneath for people who don't want to scour the whole post every time they look back at the start of the Day.)

Originally Posted by The Brinn-wagon

#73 is the first stirrings: Eonwe says he's not sure whether Brinn trusting Ka and Lommy makes him less likely to trust them. He doesn't really support this in any way. In #77, I (hi, me!) say that Brinn looks slightly dodgy for not saying much of substance; I think that's pretty much true down to her #70, which unfortunately was in the parts I didn't read closely.

#88: Legate takes the 'no-content Brinn' concept and rolls with it, kind of like he did with G55's fake-votes idea. He does go on to say that he's also not including her later posts, eg #70. In fact there's a lot of people (I saw Boro and Lhuna) whose opinion of her comes down to 'not saying much, that's suspicious'.

#112: Pitch comes in with a post that's mostly anti-Brinn, but in a plausibly-deniable way - 'this looks bad, but would a baddie do it? This looks good, but is it meant to?'. Didn't someone talk about 'questions to the reader' somewhere in the thread? There were enough recent 'hmm, Brinn looks worryingly quiet' comments that PitchWolf could definitely be taking advantage of them.

… okay, breaking the flow for a moment, but this is exactly the same technique he used in #163, that time on Rikae. 'They're suspicious, except they aren't, but what if they are?'. I don't like this one bit.

Over on page 4, Rikae suspects Brinn of opportunistically attacking G55 - which I think Pitch was the first to bring up. And… right, #136 is Brinn's 'I don't want to get caught in a trap' post, which I remember came up a lot later.

G55 echoes the earlier comments on 'quiet Brinn is suspicious', which is definitely her trying to build on the momentum that's already there. Next post, Rikae one-word calls out the 'trap' post. Then Lommy (#144) somehow manages to say 'Eonwe and Brinn are acting nearly identically; Brinn's definitely the sketchy one' with a straight face. I think I already noticed this post yesterday, but paired with Eonwe being the first person to suspect Brinn even slightly, it makes me wonder whether there's a pair of wolves signalling at each other.

G55 pushes the wagon a little in #147, and Rikae pops back up to talk about the 'trap' post. I think their explanation (in #148) does actually hold up as a reason for suspecting Brinn - but by this time, multiple people (G55 of course, but Pitch, Legate, and Lommy too) have implicated Brinn for reasons that have nothing to do with this post. This definitely isn't the cause of the Brinn-wagon, though it might have contributed to its prominence; we'll see.

Eonwe pops up with a repeat of his earlier 'I don't know, so I don't trust her' opinion. If he's a wolf, this could be laying the ground for climbing up on the wagon and being able to point back and say 'I was there all along!'.

On page 5, mentions of Brinn pop from 16 to 39; this is where the wagon really takes off. We start with Rikae and Pitch restating their suspicions, and Rikae providing the first actual vote, and then Greenie picks up the 'trap' thing. Then Pitch in #171 comes up with a whole new set of just-asking-questions for Brinn, which Lottie picks up (but somewhat less firmly; by #182 she has her as 'keep an eye on', not a suspect).

#194: THE Ka finds yet another reason to suspect Brinn: she's not making firm accusations. Mac echoes this, and calls her out for not worrying about people suspecting her. I've always had the impression that The Villager Doth Protest Too Much is pretty wolfish, so I don't much like this argument.

On to page 6 and the final hour: 78 mentions! Lommy thinks she might be innocent, Zil wants to talk about the trap (even though this has been discussed a bit), Greenie distrusts both Brinn, and Mac for accusing Brinn, Lottie would vote Brinn - and then Pitch does, with what I think is yet another reason.

I know I sound a bit like a cracked record, but this looks like a 'safe' Wolf bandwagon. He's only the second vote, so he can't be bandwagonning - except that there's been loads of people saying they mistrust Brinn, two posts ago someone stated intention to vote that way, and one post ago Brinn herself talked about how she's on the block. It would have taken a major twist for a hefty Brinn vote not to manifest, and I think Pitchwolf spotted that.

Shasta talks about waiting to see what happens - at 50 minutes to DL. Lottie starts talking about lynching Brinn to find out her role, and I think I remember her saying the same thing about G55; maybe on a quieter Day 1 this would be valid, but there's been so much relationship-drama that a 'lynch for role info' strategy looks pretty suspect to me.

#220: Kitanna makes a huge post about Brinn, coming down on the side of 'innocent/cobbler'. The fact that a thorough reread gives this sort of impression is exactly why I'm suspicious of the wagon - most of the reasons people have given for suspecting her just don't hold up under scrutiny. Rune follows this post with a very similar one, but too close to be trying to ride Kitanna's coattails.

39 minutes to DL, and Legate is still waiting for more information. I'm not going to argue with 'I don't know' (there are some valid arguments around), but this is an odd way of putting it.

Over to page 7 and the final 20 minutes. THE Ka votes Brinn (with no new reasons), Rikae defends the wagon, Lommy thinks Brinn could be anything but the cobbler (well, she's previously leaned both guilty and innocent on her, so this is consistent). Rune votes Brinn. Legate discusses 'lynching for information', like Lottie did, and then votes for her over G55. Mac votes Brinn based on… I can't even find his post in what I've written, but I remember it was there. And then G55 claims Ranger, and it's all over but the quarantining.

What jumped out to me from that? I think Pitchwife is as suspicious as all get-out, for when and how he voiced his suspicions and placed his vote. Lommy flipflops (sorry, considers both sides). Both Legate and Lottie talk about lynching Brinn for information, which I don't much like on a Day 1 this busy. And if Eonwe is a wolf who masterminded the wagon and then didn't even need to climb on it (switching to a vote-the-absentee strategy on Urwen), then he pulled it off with masterful skill.

The G55 Lynch

Since we all know what she was up to, hopefully this will be a bit shorter!

-Urwen: voted out of stated spite.
-Kath: over her passing the blame to Legate on the fake-votes, and the fight with Rikae.
-Inzil: For information (on Legate, Pitch, and Rikae) and because there's no-one else on the block he wants to lynch.
-Lottie: Lynching for information (on Pitch, I believe) and because she thinks she's a wolf.
-Lommy: voted 'to make this interesting' (by keeping G55 at +1 over Brinn, I think)
-Huinesoron: suspected Pitch-G55 pair, voted for the one who was on the block and to break the Brinn-wagon.
-Brinn: Explicit self-protection.

Conclusions? Well, obviously I think the arguments against G55 are stronger (to say the least) than those against Brinn. They were also broadly agreed on, particularly the idea that something was up in the GLP, whereas the only agreement in the Brinn voters seems to have been 'she's quiet… too quiet', with other reasons added on at will to justify that unease.

The one that jumps out on this lynch list is once again Lommy. I would dearly love to know what 'make this more interesting' meant, because to my mind, voting for one of the top two suspects (and the one who already had the most votes up to a minute before) is the opposite of 'making it interesting'.

---

Just checking for cross-posts... looks like Zil is linking Rikae's death to the Brinn-wagon. Hope there's something in here you can use!

hS

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

After Rikae? My guess is, the wolves thought Rikae looked so innocent after the G55 fight - it's doubtful the cobbler went full tilt after someone they thought could be a wolf - that she wouldn't provide much cover for them. Semi-known innocents can be really powerful, after all.

I thought she looked dodgy at the end of yesterDay. After so heavily going after G55, she failed to vote that way. I wondered if a Rikae-wolf hadn't started picking up the Cobblerishness.

x/d with Huey

[Brinniel]

YesterDay was certainly interesting. G55 didn't stay alive long, but she certainly helped cause some chaos. And now Rikae is stuck with her!

Just a thought about the QT vote - there are now two players in that thread and one is a cobbler. It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote. So while she may not know who the wolves are, we will all have to take that vote with a grain of salt.

I will need to review the voting from yesterDay. Some of that last minute bandwaggoning was highly suspicious - especially knowing that G55 and me are not wolves. With five of them, I am certain there are at least a couple hiding in those bandwagons, though I also don't think all of them were involved.

I will actually have some decent amount of time later this evening to actually go through posts and analyze things. As I mentioned before, due to my work schedule, my participation at the later half of the Day is limited to short posts, so I will try to make the most of the time I have tonight.

X-ed posted since #286

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Bwahaha, suuuuure

Very curious about this.

x/d with Brinn

[Boromir88]

A lot to unpack, but that could have gone much worse than how it turned out. First thought is it must be a cruel wolf pack to put G55 and Rikae together in the QT after their arguments yesterday.

2nd thought is there wasn't a whole lot of talk about how the QT voting will turn out. With the cobbler being there and holding the tiebreaker, we can't trust the QT vote at all today. It's going to be another nerve-wracking DL.

Getting something to eat, will return with a look at the Brinn votes yesterday, and Rikae's last post warning about a possible "anti-Brinn wagon"

Rikae Post 245

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.

Edit: crossed with everyon since Inzil's #287

[Loslote]

So Lalaith was the only person who didn't vote, and she only posted twice, the last one about six hours before deadline. We can probably assume she wasn't around at the deadline. Sally was the only person around at the deadline, and she did vote to save the "Ranger", which doesn't prove her innocence - a Sallywolf might have simply thought she had no choice but to vote in that situation - but I would say doesn't look especially suspicious. So it looks like that line of questioning might not be the most fruitful.

I am a little bit side-eyeing the late (but before the "reveal") Brinn voters. If you were a wolf, you'd probably rather keep the loud, distracting player who is haring after someone not in your pack than keep the quieter player who isn't going to help you hide as much. Specifically, Mac, Legate, and Rune.

Greenie mentioned yesterDay that Mac's analysis post of Brinn reads like someone talking themselves into suspecting someone else, which most often happens when a wolf is looking for a reason to suspect an innocent. So I definitely don't trust him at this point.

I think it's very interesting that Legate really didn't seem interested at all in the G55-Pitch options at the deadline yesterDay. In his last post before voting, he throws out Brinn, Kit, and Greenie as options, and then votes the only viable candidate there, but doesn't really talk about the other choices at all. It's not a huge thing, but it does kind of ping my radar as something a wolf might do if he wants to steer the vote a little bit, but doesn't want to look suspicious and isn't as invested as he would be if a wolf were actually in danger.

Finally, Rune's vote post:

Okay, if I was a man of ideals I would vote Eonwe now. Not much to go on, but I really did not like how he flipped on Legate, and somebody made a point of his list being blant, which I also found valid.

I am however an pragmatic (not opportunist), and I believe Pitch to be innocent. I am torn between G55 and Brinniel, G55 is confusing and gives off both types of vibes, and Brinniel acts suspicious but it might be accidental.

I consider this to be the least suspicious of the three, but I do have to note that the same argument I made for Legate could easily apply here. Rune is torn between two options, and ultimately chooses Brinn. Could be innocent, could be a wolf picking the best option for him (the player who isn't serving as a very loud distraction) and not really bothered too much by trying to protect a packmate. (I would like to point out here that when I say not trying to protect a packmate, I'm not ruling out the possibility of a Pitchwolf - I think by that point momentum had swung away from him and he probably wasn't in too much danger. This would of course rule out the possibility of Brinn being packmates with either Mac, Legate or Rune.)

[Pitchwife]

Oh I'd so love to be a fly on the wall of the QT now.

Originally Posted by Loslote

That was some Day 1! I'm glad now that we weren't able to swing the vote, but I do think it's worth looking at those late votes.

Unfortunately I think the only vote coming after G55's fake reveal was sally's, who voted the only way she could responsibly do at this point, so I'm not sure what is to be gleaned from the late votes.

Rikae was thought innocent by most of the people who talked about them (except for Andrógiel55), which may be why they were killed. Also this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?


If Brinn is a wolf, I could see at least some of her packmates turning to G55 as a convenient lightning rod (which is one of the purposes of a cobbler IMO).

Originally Posted by Zil

It's far too early for them to have been simply wanting to frame someone.

I don't know that it's ever too early for wolves to frame someone, especially if you can get rid of a dangerous player at the same time.


(x-ed since 288)

[Inziladun]

On another note, Steve's vote was odd, to say the least. It's natural to have been frustrated by Urwen's lack of reasoning (I was), but there was no chance she would be lynched.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I don't know that it's ever too early for wolves to frame someone, especially if you can get rid of a dangerous player at the same time.

Well, sure. But in this case I think there were better options.

[Thinlómien]

asdfghjklölkjhgfghjkllkjhgfghjk

^my summary of yesterDay

But hey, quite a nice result after all! When I first saw Gal's reveal I was like "I can't deal with this right now", then I thought "but I gotta, and I gotta give her the benefit of doubt", then I fervently wished there would be enough votes to lynch Brinn instead but turns out it was okay this way. And in hindsight, it makes sense.

But I already see people talking as if the bandwagon against Brinn is a sign of her innocence? No??? If the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch yesterDay, it could have just as well been Gal, who they also knew wasn't one of them.

As for Rikae - I guess she just seemed overall defensive and her touchy reactions to being accused by Gal could have been interpreted as signs iof giftednes? But it'd be worth it to look at her posts to look at "seer dreams" the wolves may have caught on.

Ok, that was first thoughts. Now I will actually read what you guys have said so far toDay and comment on that...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I imagine we will spend this day 2 scrutinising voting patterns, at least I see little in G55 behavior to warrant significant analysis. Besides the big bust up with Rikae, she seems to have mainly thrown a few non-committal comments about.

She turned on Legate when he picked up on her idea, had a little banter with Lommy about day 1 tactics, discussed the merits of cobbler hunting with Kath and challenged Brinniel for suspecting her. Wasn't that about it?

Rikae seems like an obvious choice, having been in a public spat with a traitor and under all circumstances a capacity they would not want around, so we seem to have unadventurous and downright boring wolves.

I didn't look to closely on Rikae's post yesterday, but they seem to warrant a bit closer scrutiny.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

As for Rikae - I guess she just seemed overall defensive and her touchy reactions to being accused by Gal could have been interpreted as signs iof giftednes? But it'd be worth it to look at her posts to look at "seer dreams" the wolves may have caught on.

That's what I assumed as well. I saw Rikae as a defensive wolf during the Night, but obviously I was wrong, so I suspect the wolves saw Rikae as a defensive gifted. After all, Rikae's temper tends to be more fiery when given a special role.

Didn't vote yesterDay: Lal. I wonder if she knows the game has started.

Weird votes yesterDay (Gal notwithstanding): Steve. What the frell? Also Green, which was another throwaway and strikes me as odd.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But I already see people talking as if the bandwagon against Brinn is a sign of her innocence? No??? If the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch yesterDay, it could have just as well been Gal, who they also knew wasn't one of them.

I don't think Brinn's innocence is proven by any means, but I do think that the vote patterns look (to me at least) very much like wolves choosing between two "innocents". I also think that the wolves would probably have rather lynched Brinn over G55, assuming neither was a packmate. I don't think they were trying to "orchestrate an innocent lynch" - I think, based on the overall tone of the late voters, that it came down to two options, neither of whom was a wolf. No one felt like a wolf nervously trying to avoid lynching a packmate without overtly defending them, or anything like that.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Brinn

It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote.

Nope. Right now that would be Rikae, as the last to die.

Originally Posted by Hui

#163: Pitch suspects Rikae (for suspecting him), but then 'paradoxically' flips and says both she and G55 sound innocent.

This, I feel, is a distorting abbreviation of what I actually said. I said that there was probably a wolf among those suspecting me (i.e. Rikae, Brinn, Kit & Lottie), but didn't suspect Rikae specifically (rather the contrary). The paradox was I was getting non-wolvish vibes from both of them. I admit my post was pretty condensed, but was I so unclear or are you deliberately misreading me?


Also, Zil has just made me raise a big eyebrow in his general direction. *ping* (No, Mac, I'm not going to stop it!)

[Macalaure]

Ok then. Obviously Gala considered Rikae to be innocent. In fact, by the fairly spirited way she went after them, she likely thought they were not just innocent, but gifted. What set her off against them was an error in a comment about me. Maybe she thought Rikae was the seer, dreamt of wolf-me (No, I’m not a wolf, but she Gala doesn’t know that) and tried to get me lynched by exaggerating what little could be found that early into Day1? Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

Why Rikae then, just because after yesterDay they'd look the most innocent of all toDay and thus least likely to be lynched? Possibly, but if so, our wolf pack is boring.

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*

*tinfoilhatting intensifies*


And while I'm already being paranoid...

Originally Posted by Kitanna

His response does seem like a natural response when a player comes under fire like he did. Not to say I absolve him, but it doesn't strike me as overly wolfy behavior.
In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.
I thought Legate might be the innocent party until post #88
Something about the whole post feels, I don't know, contrived? I can't place my finger on it. Like G55 it feels like he's distancing himself from the fake DL, fake vote discussion.
I'm finding it hard to explain why this sets me off, but I'm going to try in the most coherent way.
Legate drew a lot of attention, but I didn't really feel many were overly suspicious of him. There's been some talk, but nothing to indicate everyone is convinced and ready to bandwagon. I'd say more people raised eyebrows toward G55 and Pitch, myself included, because of how G55 distanced herself from her idea and how Pitch threw it all into Legate's lap. In all that, Legate did look like a misguided, attempting to be helpful innocent. But maybe that's how he wants to be viewed? He's been helpful, at least, in stirring up conversation. And yet, his list post of his thoughts in #88 just rings of false platitudes and him trying to put himself under the radar again. He came, he made a lot of noise, and now just there with a list.

This would look perfect if Kitanna and Legate are wolves together. She’s suspicious of him and defending him at the same time. It’s easy to say that there’s a wolf in that group if you know that there is. Note how in conclusion, she finds Gala and Pitch more suspicious than Legate. Can't suspect a fellow wolf too much.

Legate is suspicious of Kitanna in turn, but then:

Originally Posted by Legate

Kitanna*- I have listed it above. Upon re-read, I sense the danger of having focussed too much on it to the point of solidifying my suspicion for myself, but the points stand.

Throwing suspicion at a fellow wolf while in the same breath excusing not to vote for them.



Finally, in response to Greenie, now that I have time to respond properly

Originally Posted by Greenie

This actually isn’t how I read that at all.

(This is in response to a point of mine against Huin.) Me neither, necessarily. But it’s a plausible wolf tactic to say someone looks innocent while at the same time inviting others to make their case for guilt.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure I can stay awake until DL but Mac's post just made me rethink everything to the extent that my brain hurts. I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy. (Flip-flopping? Goes in the family, I'm afraid.) He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post. I need someone to suspect -> come up with an argument against someone -> find "wolfie" things in that person's previous posts. The only other people he mentions in this post are ones he is okay with. So if the only one he voices suspicion of is Brinn, how come he "doesn't know who to vote for"?

I started that post not knowing who to vote for and listed all the ones that I did not wish to vote for. I was going to end the post with something along the lines of "I'm going to skim over the posts of the ones not listed to see if anything jumps out." As I previewed my post I saw Brinn's post. I looked back at her older posts and found more fishy-ish things that I had missed before. Enough to make me suspicious enough to vote.



PS: Huin... I now have Cobbler55 stuck in my head to the tune of Mambo No.5. Why did you do this to me??

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

That's what I assumed as well. I saw Rikae as a defensive wolf during the Night, but obviously I was wrong, so I suspect the wolves saw Rikae as a defensive gifted. After all, Rikae's temper tends to be more fiery when given a special role.

Maybe. Hers was the first vote on Brinn, and then she got a little scratchy with those of us avoiding that wagon. That could point toward a Brinnwolf, but it could also lead back to the idea of a frameup.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Didn't vote yesterDay: Lal. I wonder if she knows the game has started. :eek

Well, she did post.

x/d with all since #301

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Greenie mentioned yesterDay that Mac's analysis post of Brinn reads like someone talking themselves into suspecting someone else, which most often happens when a wolf is looking for a reason to suspect an innocent. So I definitely don't trust him at this point.

Except wolves know all day that they have to make up the reasoning for a vote for an innocent and can plan for it accordingly.

[Pitchwife]

Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nope. Right now that would be Rikae, as the last to die.

Sure of that? I thought those lynched carried seniority over Night-kills.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

On another note, Steve's vote was odd, to say the least. It's natural to have been frustrated by Urwen's lack of reasoning (I was), but there was no chance she would be lynched.

Agreed it's a terribly bad throw away vote sure.

But had I been able to and not already voted, when I read Steve's vote I thought I would be very tempted to do the same thing. I thought Urwen's vote was unsporty and even though G55 turned out cobbler, I had same exact reaction as Steve's. Looked like Urwen had no interest in being helpful.

If G55 turned out Ranger, I would be feeling a lot different about Steve's throw away.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Since I just saw this, I'll post this immediately before my long, actual post is complete:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nope. Right now that would be Rikae, as the last to die.

No, it isn't:

Originally Posted by Nogmod in the rules thread

- If there is a tie of votes in the Quarantine Thread, the one who has been quarantined the latest - and has voted for one of the tied candidates - has the final say (aka. her vote counts practically as two). NB. A Nightly infected person is not counted as the "most recently quarantined" unless the tie can not be solved following this rule (in case of which it counts).

It is kinda confusing, but I think it essentially (except for some random exceptions) means "only people lynched will ever be the tiebreakers".

Which would basically mean that yes, we will have a Cobbler vote from the QT toDay. And if we get a Wolf toDay, it won't get any better (but it will still be the best we can do).

In that sense, lynching Cobbler on Day 1 was a really unfortunate thing, but on the other hand, it would have probably come up some Day anyway - and in that sense, it's better if it happened early rather than later when her decisive vote could be more harmful. (She can still team up with WWs, but that's a different issue and depends wholly on the specific circumstances in those future moments.)

The worse part is that it makes any close voting toDay a bit more of a mess, but at least we will know who QT voted for two hours before. So they can't mess up the final voting. Imagine if they had the vote revealed only afterwards, as was once suggested!

Ok, but now back to my... erm, longer (?) post. Will post shortly.

EDIT: x-ed since the post I'm quoting. In the name of all how much are people posting?!?!?!

[Pitchwife]

Meh, I got that wrong then.


I need to go to bed now, having a vet appointment in the morning. See yous.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But had I been able to and not already voted, when I read Steve's vote I thought I would be very tempted to do the same thing. I thought Urwen's vote was unsporty and even though G55 turned out cobbler, I had same exact reaction as Steve's. Looked like Urwen had no interest in being helpful.

I'll be coming back to this.

[Thinlómien]

Re: Hui's summary of G55 - when you put it all together it's pretty obvious how much distraction and havoc she caused, and how fun it must have been for her. (Gotta be a little envious; cobbler is maybe my fave role...) Well played *waves to the qt thread* but I'm glad we got you out of the way this early.

Originally Posted by Hui

Lommy flipflops (sorry, considers both sides)

Originally Posted by Hui

The one that jumps out on this lynch list is once again Lommy. I would dearly love to know what 'make this more interesting' meant, because to my mind, voting for one of the top two suspects (and the one who already had the most votes up to a minute before) is the opposite of 'making it interesting'.

Of the people who were "on the table" when I voted, I thought Pitchwife looked the most innocent, but I didn't have much of a preference as for Gal vs Brinn. I suspected both of them a little, but neither was my top suspect. (Gal looked maybe more suspicious to me than Brinn, but more likely of the two to turn out to be a mere cobbler if evil.) Since the last few votes (looking at the tally, I think Rune and Ka's for Brinn), it clarified the overall situation to me that it's likely to be Gal vs Brinn in the end and I was okay with either. So I thought I might as well cast my vote then (and not later) and decided to vote Gal whose bandwagon seemed to me to have less momentum. What I meant by "let's make this more interesting" was "let's see if anyone rushes to save Gal, or joins the bandwagon after me to save Brinn". Adding a new vote candidate 15min before the dl when 2/3 of the village had already voted would have been the opposite of making it interesting...

Originally Posted by Boro

2nd thought is there wasn't a whole lot of talk about how the QT voting will turn out. With the cobbler being there and holding the tiebreaker, we can't trust the QT vote at all today. It's going to be another nerve-wracking DL.

Sheesh, it's just our cobbler having one vote, just like she did yesterDay, with the difference that we know it's the cobbler's vote and we don't need to discuss its merits.

Originally Posted by Mac

Obviously Gala considered Rikae to be innocent. In fact, by the fairly spirited way she went after them, she likely thought they were not just innocent, but gifted. What set her off against them was an error in a comment about me. Maybe she thought Rikae was the seer, dreamt of wolf-me (No, I’m not a wolf, but she Gala doesn’t know that) and tried to get me lynched by exaggerating what little could be found that early into Day1? Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

What the. This doesn't sound like innocent logic at all! Like how does it even cross your mind to base your theory on Rikae being thought a seer who dreamed of wolf!you when you're not a wolf?

But given that this follows with

Originally Posted by Mac

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*

if you're a wolf you're either very bold or already lost your hope of appearing innocent in light of the Rikae kill and trying to make the most of it by pointing stuff out before anyone else can? If the cobbler wasn't already dead, I'd be side-eyeing Mac pretty hard right now. I mean I am, but that explanation would at least make sense...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.

oops I did that yesterDay but not toDay, I'm so sorry Rikae!

Originally Posted by Boro

But had I been able to and not already voted, when I read Steve's vote I thought I would be very tempted to do the same thing. I thought Urwen's vote was unsporty and even though G55 turned out cobbler, I had same exact reaction as Steve's. Looked like Urwen had no interest in being helpful.

Agreed. It would have been a decent Day1 lynch, but it was brought on the table all too late, and all too off-handedly - which I agree was a very safe move from Eönwë if he just wanted to keep his hands clean.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Except wolves know all day that they have to make up the reasoning for a vote for an innocent and can plan for it accordingly.

Right, but they also know that they have to make something up. In my experience, wolves will often have more of a "yeah, hey, you know what, this'll work, I suspect them!" tone than innocents will - and I do think your post about Brinn had a bit of that tone to it.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Agreed. It would have been a decent Day1 lynch, but it was brought on the table all too late, and all too off-handedly - which I agree was a very safe move from Eönwë if he just wanted to keep his hands clean.

It was a very safe move, that kept his hands very clean - but also, really didn't seem motivated by wolf hunting. If Urwen was a baby wolf, I might expect that she would've tried harder to be involved. I definitely understand his point of view - this game means a lot to a lot of us, and I understand the temptation to lynch someone to whom it doesn't mean as much. But in terms of wolf hunting, it wasn't really a strong argument.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It was a very safe move, that kept his hands very clean - but also, really didn't seem motivated by wolf hunting. If Urwen was a baby wolf, I might expect that she would've tried harder to be involved. I definitely understand his point of view - this game means a lot to a lot of us, and I understand the temptation to lynch someone to whom it doesn't mean as much. But in terms of wolf hunting, it wasn't really a strong argument.

Right. I approve of what he did in spirit, but it was unhelpful.
You might expect an Urwolf to have gotten some pointers from her mates.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Also, Zil has just made me raise a big eyebrow in his general direction. *ping* (No, Mac, I'm not going to stop it!)

Elaborate, by all means.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think it essentially (except for some random exceptions) means "only people lynched will ever be the tiebreakers".

Which would basically mean that yes, we will have a Cobbler vote from the QT toDay.

Legate is correct here on both claims (disclaimer to the second point: unless G55 and Rikae agree on a vote...).

Those "random exceptions" would be situations where none of the "voted to be quarantined" are part of a tie-vote in the QT. In that case the tie-breaker naturally needs to be one Night-Infected (and then similarly, the newest one to join the QT).

I have tried to use different terms of these different QT-dwellers, aka. "quarantined" for those voted out ("lynched") and "infected" for those ending there because of the Nightly activity of the Infectors ("Night Kills"). Obviously, I haven't been clear enough.


PS. We can't count on getting someone to re-vote just before DL in case of a tie, so it has to be a vote already cast that makes the difference. There are only two people in the QT right now, but in a couple of Days it will be different. So the need for this kind of arrangement should become clearer soon.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, first - there already so many posts toDay, and some struck me immediately, so...

Huinesoron's first post makes me wonder, because on the one hand, the way he's describing his Nightly activity as scribbling this post - which he clearly did - makes it more likely to be an innocent's endeavour; but on the other hand, I am just returning to my misgivings yesterDay and wondering whether he's exactly not being "helpful" here (perhaps WW with enought time on his hands, can imagine) plus subtly steering the discussion back to the "threesome" - and perhaps to Pitch, his yesterDay's suspect. If Pitch was innocent, it would be a safe way for a Wolf to keep on track with consistent suspicion onto a Day that starts the same way as the previous one: with the Village having nearly zero info.

My problem with yesterDay's voting is that half the village (this size) voted for G55 or Brinn, so that says very little. At least, until we know who Brinn is. *glances ominously in her direction* - But black humour aside, that is a fact, and that was the first thing I thought of the moment G55 was lynched and revealed to be a Cobbler. Whatever Brinn is, G55 just bought the WWs an extra Day during which we know nothing.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Just a thought about the QT vote - there are now two players in that thread and one is a cobbler. It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote. So while she may not know who the wolves are, we will all have to take that vote with a grain of salt.

I mentioned this above, and yes - unlike a quarantined Wolf, G55 doesn't know who the WWs are, so her vote will also not give much info (the plus side is that it may unexpectedly help the village, but that's pure chance).

Originally Posted by Boromir88

A lot to unpack, but that could have gone much worse than how it turned out. First thought is it must be a cruel wolf pack to put G55 and Rikae together in the QT after their arguments yesterday.

My thoughts exactly. I hope it's bearable.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Oh I'd so love to be a fly on the wall of the QT now.

I have been thinking what kind of person, even if they are a Wolf, could be so cruel to send Rikae there with G55. Now I have one suspect.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I am a little bit side-eyeing the late (but before the "reveal") Brinn voters. If you were a wolf, you'd probably rather keep the loud, distracting player who is haring after someone not in your pack than keep the quieter player who isn't going to help you hide as much. Specifically, Mac, Legate, and Rune.

You are operating awfully close to the idea as if you somehow knew Brinn to be innocent. Objectively, the idea of Wolves keeping loud distracting player vs quiet one makes sense, but your whole theory stands on the idea that Brinn would have to be not one of them.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I think it's very interesting that Legate really didn't seem interested at all in the G55-Pitch options at the deadline yesterDay. In his last post before voting, he throws out Brinn, Kit, and Greenie as options, and then votes the only viable candidate there, but doesn't really talk about the other choices at all. It's not a huge thing, but it does kind of ping my radar as something a wolf might do if he wants to steer the vote a little bit, but doesn't want to look suspicious and isn't as invested as he would be if a wolf were actually in danger.

Well, I wasn't. Or there wasn't time for me to start suddenly weighing them and re-reading their posts. Brinn was the only one from those who I was considering to vote for before (see my list with zones from just before that). The choice, out of those who were likely to get lynched, was obvious.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

On another note, Steve's vote was odd, to say the least. It's natural to have been frustrated by Urwen's lack of reasoning (I was), but there was no chance she would be lynched.

I don't know. I was a bit tempted to vote Urwen then myself (but it goes against my principle - I would usually give a "no show" first-time player one Day pass), and there still were more people who hadn't voted at that point. Anything was possible.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Rikae seems like an obvious choice, having been in a public spat with a traitor and under all circumstances a capacity they would not want around, so we seem to have unadventurous and downright boring wolves.

That was my first impression too. The added value is that either the Wolves are really heartless with sick sense of humour (after the fight the two had, sending them in together), or (I'd rather hope, because FIVE people with zero empathy?!?) perhaps nice Wolves who hope that on the QT, G55 might apologise to Rikae and Rikae might forgive her and then they can share a... drink of... desinfectant, probably.

I am absolutely confused by Mac's tinfoilhatting post at the moment, so maybe I'll leave it for the morning when I can process it with fresh braaaains.

EDIT: x-ed basically since my last. But ok, going to sleep on it for now.

[Urwen]

I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Leggie

I am absolutely confused by Mac's tinfoilhatting post at the moment, so maybe I'll leave it for the morning when I can process it with fresh braaaains.

He's a zombie. Get him!

Originally Posted by Leggie

That was my first impression too. The added value is that either the Wolves are really heartless with sick sense of humour (after the fight the two had, sending them in together), or (I'd rather hope, because FIVE people with zero empathy?!?) perhaps nice Wolves who hope that on the QT, G55 might apologise to Rikae and Rikae might forgive her and then they can share a... drink of... desinfectant, probably.

I don't know about you guys, but I think determining who joins Cobb55 in the QT shouldn't be a main factor for a wolf kill. It may be because I've never played with a dead thread before and am yet to see how it affects actual game play, but wouldn't a dead thread game be like any other game in that the wolves would try to get rid of the Gifteds (particularly the Seer) during the Night? Maybe Rikae said something that made the Infected think they're the Seer. Unfortunately I don't have time at the moment to go through their posts yesterDay to see if anything like this sticks out.

Off to work, will be back with what's left of my brains later toDay. And apologies for the lack of name bolding. I don't know how anyone manages to make proper Downs posts on mobile!

Edit: crossposted with Urwen. Coming from someone who has committed game suicide more than once in the past, the sooner the better for the village. One less person to worry about.