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12-18-2014, 03:01 PM | #241 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Posts: 344
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I will have a look at that. It may take a while, though, and I think it'd be a good idea for anybody else who has the time to also look through for clues on their own, since we might pick up on different things.
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12-18-2014, 03:04 PM | #242 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Well, I've been looking through Day 2, and though I haven't found anything yet about any of the possible cursed-wolf people, I did find this (highlight mine):
Quote:
Now to go over the subsequent posts and find the answer...? |
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12-18-2014, 03:28 PM | #243 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Well, I looked through them, and boy did I find something. Something very troubling.
Kitanna, are you around? Any chance you are Nimrodel after all? |
12-18-2014, 03:40 PM | #244 |
Child of the West
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Who voted for Jex? No, sorry. Not sure where you got the impression I was. I'm just a boring, misguided ordo who is playing a terrible game and is probably doomed at this point.
And I actually have very little to say at this point except I don't believe anyone anymore. This game destroyed my faith in humanity. Though I did come up with a few theories on lunch: 1) Rikae is Nimrodel-Hunter, but will lose her powers if she reveals. This being how the Tarragyn or whatever worked in Agan's game some games back. Rikae thinks she has a wolf and she'll take them down if she dies. It makes her self-sacrifice make sense. 2) Rikae is a suicidal wolf with village sympathies. Very unlikely, but since this is WW nothing can be counted out. 3) Rikae is an ordo, meaning Cop and Fareal were cursed. 4) Lottie is the wolf. Agan threw her name out at the end of Day 2 for those who hadn't voted. Agan didn't vote for her, but helped doom McCaber instead. A ruse perhaps to distance herself from fellow wolf, Lottie? 5) Lottie really is Nimrodel and she's effectively an ordo as she said. Right now I'm leaning toward 1 & 4 being the most likely. I've already fallen for one fake reveal this game, I'm not about to believe anymore.
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12-18-2014, 03:43 PM | #245 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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An Elven-maid there was of old,
A shining star by day: Her mantle white was hemmed with gold, Her paws of silver-grey. Lottie replying to Aganzir: Quote:
Kitanna, I was hoping you were only because otherwise I have to consider the possibility that Nimrodel is the cursed. |
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12-18-2014, 04:06 PM | #247 | ||||||
Mellifluous Maia
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I wasn't expecting to find that, but now that I think about it, it makes sense.
We weren't told there would be other special roles, though it is possible "secret stuff", it seems more likely there are no other roles than the ones listed: Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
The more I think about this, the more sense it makes to me. And there is also this: Quote:
And look who Lottie wants to lynch toDay. |
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12-18-2014, 04:13 PM | #248 | |
Child of the West
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Quote:
I don't know, I'm still not sold that Lottie is actually Nimrodel.
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12-18-2014, 04:24 PM | #249 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
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Quote:
Quote:
That's actually (though it seems a bit wrong to mention it) why I wasn't here on Day 1. If I had gotten a PM, I would have been notified by email and known the game had started. |
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12-18-2014, 04:30 PM | #250 | |
Child of the West
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Quote:
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12-18-2014, 04:33 PM | #251 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Quote:
However, there is still that 2-3 wolves thing. |
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12-18-2014, 04:39 PM | #252 |
Mellifluous Maia
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And of course, my whole suspicion of Lottie is based on the idea that she actually hinted to the wolves that she was cursed, and they attacked her because of it.
Why would she do that? I can think of a couple possibilities: a) maybe she is both cursed and out for revenge, and wanted to be a wolf so she could have night kills? b) maybe she was simply a hunter (and out for revenge) and could only kill Agan if she was attacked? c)???? d)profit Anyone else want to weigh in on this? |
12-18-2014, 04:55 PM | #253 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
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Quote:
Also, if I were the Cursed and was hinting to the wolves, why would I have killed Agan that same Night? If I was trying to become a wolf, it makes no sense to kill part of the pack the Night I supposedly joined it. Honestly, I leave for a few hours and everything falls apart.
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Last edited by Loslote; 12-18-2014 at 04:58 PM. Reason: spelling |
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12-18-2014, 05:02 PM | #254 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Quote:
Now Coppermirror has replied after Lottie's reveal, and didn't say anything about being Nimrodel, which has me thinking there will be no more reveals toDay. I'm at a loss. Now that I've had time to read the whole discussion for today (and having Lottie's reveal), I somewhat see Rikae's point, though I still have a bad feeling about her insistence in trying to unmask Nimrodel. I just feel we don't know enough about the parameters of the game to really figure out where we stand, which makes interpreting peoples' comments a bit more difficult (e.g. is this a misguided Ordo or a wolf or a vengeful Nerwen? What are the win conditions for the non-Ordos?) I'm tempted to trust Lottie on the basis of Occam's razor, but that leaves the question of whether the remaining wolf was there from the beginning (and thus Kit or Rikae) or if it may have been a cursed who turned (which would add everyone else to the mix, really). (Note that's not an edit, my girlfriend got home as I was writing this and got distracted. I likely cross posted with a bunch of people. The last post I read was Rikae's ??? Profit one
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12-18-2014, 05:27 PM | #255 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Quote:
Well, if it's any help, I do find Kit's response to the suggestion pretty wolfy. I'm not voting until I absolutely have to. I want to make as informed a decision as I possibly can. Going through Day 2's posts for cursed hints turned up that comment of yours and really nothing else, except one place where Farael mentions "good people" in scare quotes. That could look like an evil hint, but I can't see him hinting and then suggesting people look for hints toDay! Well, lemmie make a list: Farael actually looks fairly trustworthy to me. Most of what he's said toDay would have worked against his interests if he were a wolf. Coppermirror has been very under the radar, but asked a lot of questions about whether the cursed would have showed up as a wolf or innocent to Sally yesterDay. It wouldn't have been a good thing for a cursed-Copper to draw our attention to. Also, I don't see any particular reason the wolves would have gone after Copper on the no-kill night. Kitanna just gives off a wolfish vibe to me and has from the beginning. The fact that now she seems mostly interested in the possibility of her own survival and not in a village win doesn't help. After all, if she's an ordo, she can die and still win. On the other hand, if she was a wolf from the beginning, we have no explanation for the missed kill, and if she's cursed, we don't know why the wolves would have gone after her, either. Loslote Is Nimrodel, that much I'm willing to believe. I'm not so sure she's on our side, or that she's telling the whole truth about her role, for reasons I just listed - possible cursed-hinting and the fact that her role as she revealed it doesn't quite fit with the narration. If Loslote really is just a hunter, and Kitanna was a wolf from the beginning, we have no explanation for the no-kill night. So either Loslote is up to something or we have a cursed. And if we have a cursed, there's no particular reason to vote for Kitanna (aside from "looking wolfy"), but rather, we should vote for the most likely cursed... which, to my mind, brings us back to Lottie. |
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12-18-2014, 05:30 PM | #256 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Quote:
I'm sorry for not having contributed more to the discussion so far. Problem is, there are so many potential variables. Right now, I think it's most likely that if we have a wolf remaining, it's a cursed wolf, because what other explanation is there for the lack of a wolf kill on the Night that Aganzir died? And if we have a third wolf (however they got there), it makes sense that Nimrodel would be on the side of the village, because if not, that would be a vicious game balance. I'm going to discard the possibilty that the game is so unfair. However, if Nimrodel were to be a third, cursed wolf, that wouldn't break the game. But it would mean she had three roles - lover, hunter, cursed. That's an awfully complicated thing to put in a game without explaining it to the village. Would Nerwen really do that? And if there is no "wolf" any more but what we have is just Nimrodel's revenge on the Amroth voters, it's...a bit odd. I would have expected the game to end with the last wolf's death even if Nimrodel had a vendetta. And this would not explain why it is that there was no wolf kill on the Night that Agan died. I haven't read through all of this page in detail, so I'll read through the posts toDay so far carefully and see if my opinion changes, but right now I'm inclined to trust Lottie and to look for a cursed wolf. Which means I'll go back to looking through the older posts for who I think the wolves might have targeted. Edit: crossed with Rikae |
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12-18-2014, 05:57 PM | #257 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
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Quote:
She's more of an assassin than a hunter anyway, seems like. Quote:
Why she didn't die - well, either she was cursed, or maybe her one-time "assassination" ability also protects her. But wouldn't she know that? What we do have is this: that Aganwolf brought up the possibility of a cursed, and that the following night, there was no wolf kill. I think not having a cursed is too much to hope for. Edit: just realized as it was posting that I wanted to add: "Aganwolf brought up the possibility of a cursed that the wolves knew about" |
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12-18-2014, 09:36 PM | #258 |
Mellifluous Maia
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I'm going to have to vote soon. Is anyone around?
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12-18-2014, 09:44 PM | #259 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I'll be voting within the hour
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12-18-2014, 11:02 PM | #260 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Ok, time to vote. Here's my rationale:
++Kitanna
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12-18-2014, 11:04 PM | #261 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Quote:
Edit: X'd with Farael |
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12-18-2014, 11:13 PM | #262 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Never mind, I assume this refers to it:
Quote:
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12-18-2014, 11:15 PM | #263 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
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Day 1.
Kitanna: - banters - speculates wildly, and among those, there's one known hit: Tar-Jêx as one of the Lovers. Given that Tar-Jêx got killed and revealed as Amroth on Day 1, they might have thought that was Seerish, but if they did, it didn't stop them thinking Boro was a better kill option for Night 2. - says "I'm magic after all." in response to Agan's "Blimey! I didn't think we'd get caught this quickly." about the Lovers guess, and then speculates about the Lovers' roles. The "I'm magic" stuff might have been too bold-sounding to be followed up. - votes randomly for Tar-Jêx, who anyone would have expected to be safe from being voted off on Day 1, so if they thought Seer!Kitanna had dreamed of him as a Lover/Ranger, Seer!Kitanna would have expected her vote to be 100% ineffectual and safe. (Although it turns out it wasn't safe.) Rikae: n/a Farael: n/a Loslote: - banter, talks of dark portents - says could buy Kitanna's speculation about Lover-cobblers. - votes Boro, leaves Day 2 Kitanna: - Post #75 has multiple suggestions. Can't see anything of note there. - Shows up to vote. Really, there is so little there. Rikae: - Points out that Tar may not have known details of Nimrodel's role. - Suggests maybe Nimrodel's an illogical hunter. Farael - suggests that Nimrodel can both protect and be a hunter, but that it's unlikely. Agan: - lots of suggestions that there's a cobbler, focused on McCaber. - among other things, suggested Boro was killed for cobbler-hinting - suggests that a better reason would be that the wolves wanted something specific (a cursed) more than they wanted to nab the "revealed" Agan!Seer. This is something that could, on its own, just be a way of trying to plausibly explain why Agan was still alive if she was really the Seer. - "I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that" - she may have been hoping that Nimrodel would say something, whether revealing herself and saying yes or subtly hinting a "no" to Agan. Loslote: The "cursed before" could have been her trying to contact wolves, but could have been entirely innocent too. This was also at a time when she was about to Night-kill Agan, so it could be odd to reach out to the wolves when she was trying hard to kill one. All three of Kitanna, Rikae and Farael look like people that the wolves could reasonably have gone for on suspicion of Seerishness. The latter two missed an entire Day, and Kitanna left early and made a throwaway vote on Day 1 then didn't say much on Day 2. I am concerned that perhaps Lottie could be untrustworthy and the village's remaining opponent, but frankly at this stage if she is it takes the game to levels of difficulty that I'm not sure I can manage to deal with right now. I'm going to move on to look at the next two Days and see if anyone is looking as if they just got turned into a wolf there. |
12-18-2014, 11:17 PM | #264 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
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Quote:
I apologize that I haven't been around as much toDay as I had hoped - we had surprise visitors who stayed all day, and I wasn't able to get away to post. Edit: xed since the post I quoted - yes, that's the earlier post I was referring to.
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12-18-2014, 11:29 PM | #265 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Oh well. It's late, and I'm exhausted.
Although I don't think Loslote is telling us everything she knows, and it does seem likely she was the wolves' target on the no-kill night, there is a chance that she isn't actually against the village (maybe just after Kitanna?) There's also the chance we had three wolves from the beginning, in which case, I can be sure the last wolf is Kitanna. And in the case of a cursed that isn't Lottie, Kitanna is a possibility (and there are reasons I mentioned that Farael and Copper are less likely). In light of that: ++Kitanna Let's hope we got it right. That "cursed before" business is really nagging at me... |
12-19-2014, 12:32 AM | #266 |
The Werewolf's Companion
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Hopefully we're right about Kit - she makes the most sense in both scenarios, so I'm pretty confident, but still. Crossing my fingers.
++Kitanna
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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12-19-2014, 12:55 AM | #267 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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That's three votes for Kitanna, which means that's it for her now. I'm not done with my analysis of the situation yet, but I'll keep on with it even though it's pointless as far as toDay is concerned and my vote doesn't count, in case the decision toDay was wrong.
Kitanna, if the decision toDay is wrong, what do you think ought to be done toMorrow? Do you suspect anybody in particular? |
12-19-2014, 02:57 AM | #269 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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The Tally
Farael --> Kit (1) Rikae --> Kit (2) Lottie --> Kit (3) Kit ----> Kit (4) Left to vote: Coppermirror.
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12-19-2014, 03:09 AM | #270 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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It is getting pretty late, so I suppose I might as well vote now. May as well make it 5/5 for better or worse.
++Kitanna |
12-19-2014, 03:26 AM | #271 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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The Tally
Farael --> Kit (1) Rikae --> Kit (2) Lottie --> Kit (3) Kit --> Kit (4) Coppermirror --> Kit (5)
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12-19-2014, 03:28 AM | #272 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Cop, you mentioned wanting to do an analysis. Is that still the case?
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12-19-2014, 03:35 AM | #273 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Yes, but since the voting's all over with I wasn't in any hurry to finish it up quickly. But I haven't actually found anything useful yet, so if you were hoping to go ahead and have the deadline early I don't mind.
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12-19-2014, 03:49 AM | #274 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Well, I'm going up the street now, so I'll give the result when I
get back. (Probably about half an hour.) Feel free to post in the meantime.
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12-19-2014, 04:39 AM | #275 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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There's no more point in considering Kitanna since if she's a wolf she's about to by lynched anyway, so I'll just look at Rikae, Farael and Lottie.
Day 3 Rikae - Sceptical of Sally, and (not unreasonably) wanted voting to not go ahead without more details. Considered a lot of fake reveal scenarios. - Sally finds her attitude about the revealed innocents perturbing, thinking that Rikae could be unhappy about narrowing odds. But if Rikae was a cursed, it actually wouldn't count. Farael - Also sceptical of Sally. - Was quick to vote for Shasta after his "reveal", but if a wolf he would know that Shasta was doomed. So the vote placement, although the one which tipped it into 4 votes and sealed Shasta's fate, is not indicative of guilt or innocence. Lottie - Believed Sally and voted pretty quickly, but she had to vote very soon and was busy, so it was sensible. Didn't say much that Day. Really, Rikae and Farael behaved in similar ways, albeit that Rikae was more aggressively sceptical and Farael was more low-key and voted faster (whereas the votes after his didn't count). I'm not sure what they would usually do as wolves. If I had to pick the more traditionally wolfish behaviour of the two I'd say Farael's, but there's a possibility a Rikae wolf would go for a bold strategy. Day 4 Rikae and Farael's big argument mostly doesn't seem enlightening. Rikae does something odd in that she suggests that people vote for her, which is something I generally think an innocent should never do and which a wolf may use as a gambit. But then Farael agrees with that and says voting for her sounds like a good idea just because nobody should ever pull such a stunt. Which is also pretty bad...but may have been taking into account that it's not a wise thing for an innocent to do. Rikae seems to be spending a lot of energy thinking things through, and also finds something which could legitimately be a slip from Lottie. It looks like a pretty genuine effort and thought process, but maybe Rikae is just a clever wolf. And if she's a wolf then she probably wouldn't know the true details of Nimrodel's role so would need to consider them. Farael also has some doubts. They look reasonable too. And I'm probably about out of time now, so I'll leave it at this. No conclusions reached yet, unfortunately. |
12-19-2014, 05:44 AM | #276 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Had to check the game as soon as I woke up.
I just have to say this, because it's bugging me: No, ordos should definitely not always put their own survival first! An ordo wins when the village wins, so although we generally should try to stay alive, we should prioritize the survival and effectiveness of gifteds over our own survival. Of course a wolf can bluff at doing the same thing, but that doesn't mean it's never legitimate. Jeez, I thought that was werewolf 101. Anyway, judging from Kitanna's reaction, we were wrong. I had a bad feeling about it when I cast my vote. |
12-19-2014, 06:00 AM | #277 |
Mellifluous Maia
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And also, I don't like it how Farael and Copper are both like "innocents should generally never do this" instead of actually looking at the situation as we knew it at the time. Lazy.
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12-19-2014, 06:01 AM | #278 | ||
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Quote:
Quote:
Edit: crossed with Rikae |
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12-19-2014, 06:03 AM | #279 |
Mellifluous Maia
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12-19-2014, 06:24 AM | #280 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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That took longer than expected, so I may as well wait for the normal DL.
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