Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

*heads explodes noisily* ARGGH. Since Day1 I've been flip-flopping on whether Cop looks more wolvish or gifted, and yesterDay I abstained from voting her and went for Nerwen instead of her because I thought she was hinting at being gifted. And now this ambiguous and thus uncontestable reveal, which would be pretty darn cunning from a wolf in dire straits. Well, I guess we should just give Cop the benefit of doubt for a Day or two and see what happens...

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time. Eönwë looks pretty innocent for his open fishing of support to lynch Cop instead of Holby (a wolf would be quite brazen to do that) and Nerwen is putting effort into this game in a way that suggests innocence to me (I know I voted her yesterDay and my minor suspicions concerning have gone nowhere, I'm just pushing them back at the moment because they don't seem relevant in the big picture) - it looks like she's actually thinking about who the wolves might be, not just hanging around. Still, I'm baffled that Eönwë and Nerwen have both completely ignored Copper's reveal.

Got caught up with the Eonwe-situation. Besides, there’s not really much we can do about Cop’s reveal at present. I’d already thought she had to be one or the other, so the reveal doesn’t really surprise me– and I can see the point of making it ambiguous– yet, as you say, that’s something that would be very much in a wolf’s interests as well.

[satansaloser2005]

The sorcerers were able to whisper for a few moments (read, hours) before the game began.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlomien

Eönwë looks pretty innocent for his open fishing of support to lynch Cop instead of Holby (a wolf would be quite brazen to do that)

True– but I have been burned quite a few times through thinking “a wolf would never vote like that”.

Anyway, since I can’t put it off any longer

++Steve.

This may look like retaliation, but even before he made that odd attack on me, I’d been uneasy about him because his speculations on the Night-kill seemed rather forced, as though perhaps he was just trying to get the village to waste time on Echo's posts. And the attack on me also seems forced– as I said, perhaps from a wolf looking for a way to capitalise on Holby’s dying vote.

That’s one way of looking at it. To be fair, another is this: Innocent Steve is highly suspicious of Greenie and Cop, to the point of seeing my Echo-analysis as somehow a defence of them (which it isn’t– I merely argued against his theory that the kill itself actually points to them), leading him to suspect me as well.

Sorry I don’t have anything better, but nobody else has been around most of the Day, so I just haven’t have much to go on.

EDIT:X’d with moddess.

[A Little Green]

I'm back! I agree that Echo was probably a suspected Seer. I haven't really thought this through and Nerwen and Eonwe's argument makes my brain hurt, but from what I gather there are two scenarios if the wolves thought Echo was the Seer:

Scenario 1: they thought he dreamed Kath based on his pretty drastic flip-flop on her - from "Lynch the witch!" to "She's not important anymore" overnight might have caught their attention. If this was the case, Kath looks good.

Scenario 2: they thought he dreamed Holby. Also makes sense, given his (also rather drastic) sudden switch of suspicion to her yesterDay. If this was the case, it doesn't really tell us much about the roles of living players as Holby is already a dead wolf.

What did I miss?

Anyway, moving on to other things - a quick look at the vote tally from yesterDay:

Boro -> Lottie
No surprises here; he made a solid enough case and voted on it immediately. Not suspicious in itself, but would also be a pretty safe thing for a wolf to do. I hope we'll see more of Boro toDay; I might go through his posts as well if I have the time or the energy.

Nerwen -> Cop
Said that multiple comments of Cop's could be read as either innocent or evil and voted with

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I really just can’t make up my mind whether the “evil” reading of her posts is the right one, but I think it’s a possible one, anyway.

Kath -> Cop (2)
I'm pretty okay with Kath's vote; she had decent points behind it, including Cop's apologetic "Oops should have known better" after Legsy's death. This would also have been a pretty safe vote for a wolf to make, though, but since I tend to find Kath pretty innocent anyway I'm not too alarmed.

Lommy -> Nerwen
Because there are "little things that bother her" and because she began to waver on Cop and didn't want to vote for her. This makes me feel rather good about Lommy, actually. I'd guess a Lommywolf would try to think of a more elegant argument to base her vote on.

Greenie -> Cop (3)

Lottie -> Holby

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop.

This sounds sensible. Also, it would be a daring move from a wolf since there was some anti-Holby sentiment around and quite a few undecided people left to vote.

McCaber -> Holby (2)
Not dwelling on this since I find it highly improbable that he is a baddie.

Cop -> Holby (3)
Self-preservation. Doesn't really tell much about her role as at that point it looked like it was going to be either her or Holby, so if she is a wolf it would have been a wolf lynch anyway. Of course as a wolf she could have voted Nerwen and hoped to create a tie and thus a no-kill, but that would have been quite risky as it would have looked fishy.

Also, while on the subject of Cop - the gifted reveal? I'm not sure. This "I'm either the Ranger or the Hunter" is pretty much the cleverest way to fake a reveal if you're a heavily suspected wolf. I mean, no one can come out with a contesting claim since the ranger will think "Oh, that means she's the hunter" and the hunter "Oh, she's the ranger". But it would also be sensible from a real gifted so I don't know! Cop thanks for making my head hurt.

Holby -> Nerwen (2)
This has already been speculated on so sorry if I'm repeating stuff, but this might be the most interesting vote of the bunch - why didn't she vote Cop? Was it that she wasn't up to date with the vote tally, or that she had given up, or that she wanted to protect a fellow Cop, or was afraid Cop was the Hunter? Or was she hoping that neither she nor Cop would get any more votes, leaving the vote in a tie and thus a no-kill? The thing is, with Holby it's hard to tell!

Echo -> Holby (4)
No surprises here either, and since both these guys are already dead there's no need to dwell on analyzing this.

Shasta -> Shasta
Because he fell asleep and had to avoid modfire somehow. Doesn't tell anything about him except that he should probably start drinking coffee or something, sleepyhead. Anyway, I hope he gets his act together regarding the voting!


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy, two Nerwens and a Sally!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

*heads explodes noisily* ARGGH. Since Day1 I've been flip-flopping on whether Cop looks more wolvish or gifted, and yesterDay I abstained from voting her and went for Nerwen instead of her because I thought she was hinting at being gifted. And now this ambiguous and thus uncontestable reveal, which would be pretty darn cunning from a wolf in dire straits. Well, I guess we should just give Cop the benefit of doubt for a Day or two and see what happens...

I would think if Cop was a sorcerer trying to pull off all the stops to hold off being lynched she would be making a false seer claim. Therefor the "I'm either the protector/hunter wizard" I'm going to take as genuine.

[Boromir88]

I wish I could be my standard active self and I'm actually able to keep up on what's happening well enough, but just not much time to get much written out or organized. But the good news is I find myself enjoying this whole WWing all over again.

Ok so I'm not sure I'll have time to post all of this now, before needing to complete a few more errands, but hopefully I'll be able to finish when I'm back.

Part I.

For today, I'm not interested in voting for...

Kath
Cop
McCaber

With the possibility of Saruman lurking we can't forget he can turn someone into a sorcerer in a snap, but I don't think we have to worry about that today. Kath I think for the Echo kill, I'm saying no interest in voting for her.

Cop's gifted reveal makes sense and while I see the point it's a clever move to say "I'm either the Ranger/Hunter" but at this point, Cop was under some heavy suspicion last night and nearly the entire time was hinting at probably having to spill something. I would think a sorcerer would try a fake seer reveal if under threat of lynch.

I think it was Eonwe, or possibly Cop, or both which have questioned McCaber's "other lover reveal." I just don't think that's a move a sorcerer would make, I mean McCaber might have been looked at more since he didn't show the previous day, but it's not like he was starting under serious suspicions. Plus, let's say McCaber is lying, and Legate also wasn't the other Lover. Then that would mean the Lovers would either know eachother at this point, or still be searching for eachother...so it's just not a sensible fake reveal for a sorcerer. I suppose it's possible both Legate and Inzil were the lovers, and therefor no one would be able to reveal McCaber as a fraud, but that would be a cruel twist of fate...and still wouldn't explain why a sorcerer-Cabbie would say he was a lover.

Those who I need to start watching more, but probably something I'm going to have to put off for now...

Lommy
Greenie
Shasta

Those I'm most feeling are suspicious and possibly vote for...

Eonwe
Nerwen
Lottie

Explanations for those two lists will have to come in my Part II.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It doesn't appear too much has happened today. It's been pretty well agreed upon that Echo died due to looking like a Seer - the only other thing of real interest is the Nerwen/Eonwe spat, which I'm going to have to take a closer look at.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Cop re: #231 - The biggest point in McCaber's favor is that no one has stepped forward to contradict him. If he's not the other Lover, there's no reason for the real other Lover not to speak up.

On to my heart and Eonwe -

The first salvo is Eonwe at #232.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:
What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day? Considering the normal depth of your analysis, this looks like it could be a sneaky way to make it look like you didn't consider the situation fully to look more like an innocent. I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from. And Holby voting for you as she died does not help.

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

edit: x-ed with Cop

Considering that Eonwe posted three times at the beginning of the day when one would have sufficed...

In any case, taking this argument post by post I can see the merits of thinking the wolves would rather not have killed new, confusing Echo on the very first night over no-trace Inzil. However, leaping to such a concrete suspicion of Nerwen is just that - a leap.

Nerwen responds -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...


I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.


You mean Holby..., right?

My dear one is pretty known for her skills at analysis at this point - it's an odd sort of game if she doesn't do at least three. Given that, I'm not sure why Eonwe finds it a wolvish trait.

Moving on, Nerwen continues -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh yes–

I haven’t finished with you, yet, Mr Eonwe.

This is what you actually said, earlier in the Day (my bolding):



Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

I took the (considerable) trouble to examine the evidence in some detail, in the course of this demonstrating why it didn’t actually support your conclusions.

This, according to you, is a highly sinister course of action, not to mention useless, since–

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

Here Nerwen points out a seeming contradiction in Eonwe's logic - calling the evil Holby dream as "least likely", then turning that on its head and saying it was "most likely".

Eonwe responds -

Originally Posted by Eönwë

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.


Ok, I know it was late and my wording was less than clear, but the two paragraphs are obviously separate scenarios. In the first one, Holby being dreamt is implicit- why would they fear Echo otherwise? In the second, it's meant to be how a wolf-Kath would approach it, and obviously for her it would be better to get people to believe the wolves thought it she that was dreamt.


The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):




Ok, I've actually had a bit of a change of heart about this. I don't think you were posting just to look like you were being helpful. With all the confusingness that is Echo, we need as much clarity and certainty as we can get. Sometimes it is better to be safe than sorry.

What does whether or not the kill of Inzil was aimed at taking out a gifted actually matter in the current situation? This first paragraph really smacks to me of wolvish thought-process. Not something I normally put much stock in when considering someone's guilt or innocence, but this is really blatant.

I'm not understanding the second paragraph much, either. It would be better for Kathwolf for people to believe Kath was dreamt? Or Holby? If Kath, it doesn't make any sense - either way, Kath is basically outed as a dreamed wolf.

And then Eonwe proceeds to back off entirely. An innocent refocusing his energies, or a wolf realizing he's bit off more than he can chew? At the moment I'm leaning towards the latter.

Nerwen responds -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure. You’re under no obligation to agree with my reasoning. That’s not the point, Steve.


I am aware that you were describing two separate scenarios. However, you said:
"If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely”
Here, yes, you’re talking about your double-bluffing scenario (where Kath is a wolf killing Echo in order to look better). But your statement that Kath would have been the supposed Seer-Echo's “most likely dream" is a general one, not specific to that scenario.

Therefore, the contradiction remains.

Now, again, you don’t have to agree with me on why Echo was killed. I could be completely wrong. Despite the evidence, it may be that the wolves killed Echo for some other reason entirely. Who knows– except them, of course. What I do not appreciate is being heavily attacked simply for analysing the posts of a dead player, and especially for examining them in the light of scenarios suggested by you yourself.

Yes, you’re trying to back away from it all now– but you were ready to scream “sorcerer” at me before. On that note, I particularly don’t care for that little bit you threw in about, “Holby voting for you as she died”. No, not just on personal grounds– I'm actually wondering now if that was something cooked up overnight– “I know, let’s try and pass off Holby’s vote as wolf-on-wolf, heh, heh..."

Nothing too much to say here, this is pretty solid. Although I don't really know if I buy the whole "wolf on wolf" thing.

The radiant moon finishes by voting Eonwe -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

True– but I have been burned quite a few times through thinking “a wolf would never vote like that”.

Anyway, since I can’t put it off any longer

++Steve.

This may look like retaliation, but even before he made that odd attack on me, I’d been uneasy about him because his speculations on the Night-kill seemed rather forced, as though perhaps he was just trying to get the village to waste time on Echo's posts. And the attack on me also seems forced– as I said, perhaps from a wolf looking for a way to capitalise on Holby’s dying vote.

That’s one way of looking at it. To be fair, another is this: Innocent Steve is highly suspicious of Greenie and Cop, to the point of seeing my Echo-analysis as somehow a defence of them (which it isn’t– I merely argued against his theory that the kill itself actually points to them), leading him to suspect me as well.

Sorry I don’t have anything better, but nobody else has been around most of the Day, so I just haven’t have much to go on.

EDIT:X’d with moddess.

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

Of the two, I do feel Eonwe is more suspicious. However, that last post of Nerwen's does have traits of "oops, my counterattack worked too well, I hope he's not mad."

[Thinlómien]

I'm having the strangest of feelings that Nerwen and Eönwë might both be wolves after all...

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't like this list at all. It seems lazy and mostly just echoing other people's opinions, especially lumping Holby and Echo in one category of confusion, it feels like Eönwë is trying to fish sympathy or goodwill (maybe not consciously) by joining in OMGing over Holby and Echo's weird behaviour. (Seriously, I think their "weirdness" was greatly exaggerated in this game and I admit taking some part in that too.)

Well, that was just how I saw it at the time. I had actual suspicion for Cop and Greenie, I had bad feelings about Nerwen and Lottie, and at that point Boro seemed a little less innocent than the others. I didn't really think it worth it to focus on Holby and Echo, because playing like that would either get them killed early on (in which case trying to analyse their posts would not count for much) or keep them in for a long time (in which case I'd have more time to look at them more carefully). Either way, my time was very limited that Day (less than an hour), so it did not seem wise, especially when even if they were both guilty there'd still be another wolf about.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Speaking of the vote count above, it's pretty weird Holby didn't vote for Cop and try to save herself but instead went for Nerwen who only had one vote. Does this mean Cop is guilty, or that Holby was just being a bit careless (which she was before)?

Holby's actions could be used to argue for either (or both) Nerwen or Cop's guilt or innocence. It's probably best not to put too much stock in the vote of a dying wolf.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Still, I'm baffled that Eönwë and Nerwen have both completely ignored Copper's reveal.

Well, Cop basically already revealed yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Eonwe, if you've decided on a vote, if it's me I want you to tell me it in advance before you send it.

And it's quite a sneaky reveal because if she's not, it requires two reveals to disprove, which isn't going to happen. So we can't do much until more comes to light. And I was a little preoccupied...

edit: x-ed with Lommy

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time.

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

[Loslote]

As for Cop's reveal, I think we shouldn't consider her a known innocent, exactly, but I am inclined to trust her for now.

[Thinlómien]

Fine at the moment
McCaber - I believe his claim and his behaviour supports his innocence.
Coppermirror - let's see how it goes with her claim.
Kath - Echo's death makes her possibility of her guilt ignorable for the time being.

Starting to feel concerned about (mostly because I've been taking their innocence almost for granted this far)
Boro - I had a good gut-feeling of him earlier, but I've grown suspicious now that he's been posting less. I have not forgotten my bororadar isn't infallible anymore so I shouldn't trust mere gut-feeling.
Greenie - she is kind of sneakily avoiding all suspicion why demonstrating no great signs of innocence either. Worrisome.
Shasta - his relaxed and humorous countenance first made me trustful, but now it all too much reminds me of evil!Shasta who's happy because he's avoiding all suspicion. He's a tad too gleeful to be innocent.

Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).


Great, yesterDay I didn't suspect anyone, now I suspect everyone. Let me gather my thoughts.


edit: xed with all

[Thinlómien]

Now I'm actually pretty sure 2 of our remaining baddies are among Shasta, Boro and Greenie. Not because they look particularly guilty, but because the others look quite innocent.

Nerwen still seems to think like an innocent and - whatever crazy ideas I might have entertained - her row with Eönwë looks more innocent-on-innocent than anything else.

The same reason goes for Eönwë's innocence. Also, I'm going to repeat the effort to save Holby once more. Plus, that last post of his now was probably the most innocent sounding post I've seen the whole Day if you exclude McCaber's posting.

Lottie's last couple of posts sound very innocent too, plus like I said I'm going to momentarily give her the benefit of doubt for starting the Holby-wagon.

Kath, McCab and Cop are all quite clear for the time being.

Up next: who of the three remaining ones look the most fishy aka who are the monsters and who is the maaan.


PS. I know I'm saying different stuff in consecutive posts right now but I'm thinking furiously and basically writing all my thought processes here. Hope it's enlightening or at least entertaining.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

I would think if Cop was a sorcerer trying to pull off all the stops to hold off being lynched she would be making a false seer claim. Therefor the "I'm either the protector/hunter wizard" I'm going to take as genuine.

I'm not sure about this - the hunter/ranger-reveal is far less risky because a) it's practically impossible to disprove and b) it doesn't require saying anything else. Meaning that if you fake reveal as a seer, you need to be able to elaborate on your dreams and preferably point to hints in your previous posts or something. You practically can't blunder a ranger/hunter-reveal, but a seer-reveal you can.

That said, I won't be voting Cop toDay. I think it's best we wait and see what happens during the Night. So that leaves
Kath and McCaber who I'm definitely not voting,
Lommy and Shasta who keep giving me good vibes, though I might have to look at them more closely later,
Lottie who also looks quite good to me, though to a slightly lesser degree than the two previous ones,
Nerwen and Eonwe whose squabble made both look worse, and
Boro who I feel slightly concerned about.

Originally Posted by Shasta

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

This is an interesting point, especially combined with her yesterDay's vote post:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I really just can’t make up my mind whether the “evil” reading of her posts is the right one, but I think it’s a possible one, anyway.

Which also comes across as somewhat apologetic. As if she was apologizing in advance in case we happened to lynch the person she voted for and they turned out to be innocent. Concerns me a little. But then again there's Eonwe too, who I'm getting quite wary of. He leaps rather easily from disagreeing with Nerwen to suspecting her and then as she responds to that he does an almost-Legate-180 and says Nerwen might not be suspicious after all. What?

What confuses me even more is that I doubt their exchange was wolf-on-wolf - it would have been extremely bold to draw so much attention to themselves, especially as neither had really been in the spotlight yesterDay. Seems like a pointless risk to take. It is also possible that it was innocent-on-innocent and I'm wasting my time here, but they both look fishy and I have no better leads at the moment.

There would also be Boro who I'm getting more concerned about, but I don't have time for a proper look at him now so I'll probably have to leave him be for toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and two Lommies!

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In any case, taking this argument post by post I can see the merits of thinking the wolves would rather not have killed new, confusing Echo on the very first night over no-trace Inzil. However, leaping to such a concrete suspicion of Nerwen is just that - a leap.

Well, she didn't seem to consider that part of the situation at all. And since she went through all the posts, I felt like such a massive oversight might not be unintentional. And it's one that could be defended in a way that looks innocent (note that she didn't defend it- she just refused to acknowledge that it existed). It needed to be challenged.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

My dear one is pretty known for her skills at analysis at this point - it's an odd sort of game if she doesn't do at least three. Given that, I'm not sure why Eonwe finds it a wolvish trait.

My point is not that she makes the list, it's that she misses stuff out. And a post-by-post analysis becomes a sort of 'official' overview of someone (to an extent). Which is not good if it's lacking, and could be an intentional way for a wolf to hide some important point in plain sight by brushing over it or mentioning it lightly and never getting back to it.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm not understanding the second paragraph much, either. It would be better for Kathwolf for people to believe Kath was dreamt? Or Holby? If Kath, it doesn't make any sense - either way, Kath is basically outed as a dreamed wolf.

The point is that if they really thought that Echo was the seer, it's more likely they thought Holby was dreamt.

If they didn't really think Echo was the seer, because he/she was acting that way, they could make it seem as if they thought he/she actually was the seer. In this circumstance, championing the opinion of them thinking that the dream was Kath would be more beneficial.

In the first scenario, Kath is irrelevant. In the second (admittedly far more elaborate), she's bought herself a lot of innocence.


As for this:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

What does whether or not the kill of Inzil was aimed at taking out a gifted actually matter in the current situation?

This is the full exchange:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

edit: x-ed with Greenie

[McCaber]

I'm back from work, and the unrelenting heat has just about fried my brain. Hopefully I can find something to work from in the next half an hour.

[Thinlómien]

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Well, she didn't seem to consider that part of the situation at all. And since she went through all the posts, I felt like such a massive oversight might not be unintentional. And it's one that could be defended in a way that looks innocent (note that she didn't defend it- she just refused to acknowledge that it existed). It needed to be challenged.


My point is not that she makes the list, it's that she misses stuff out. And a post-by-post analysis becomes a sort of 'official' overview of someone (to an extent). Which is not good if it's lacking, and could be an intentional way for a wolf to hide some important point in plain sight by brushing over it or mentioning it lightly and never getting back to it.


The point is that if they really thought that Echo was the seer, it's more likely they thought Holby was dreamt.

If they didn't really think Echo was the seer, because he/she was acting that way, they could make it seem as if they thought he/she actually was the seer. In this circumstance, championing the opinion of them thinking that the dream was Kath would be more beneficial.

In the first scenario, Kath is irrelevant. In the second (admittedly far more elaborate), she's bought herself a lot of innocence.


As for this:

This is the full exchange:



edit: x-ed with Greenie

Point A: "Refused to acknowledge" is a bold statement. I feel a better one might be "thought irrelevant" - your concept of importance and Nerwen's aren't necessarily the same, which is why some of the things you say come off as accusatory.

Point B: That's fair, but again, how can you be as sure as you appear that Nerwen left something out intentionally?

Point C: The second scenario obviously depends on Kath being a wolf. Given that (and given Nerwen's point about Echo living an extra day after calling out Kath), I'm fairly certain at this point that the first scenario is the correct one. While I applaud the way you look at things from every angle here, I do have to wonder how much of it is "finding something to post to look helpful", which is a common wolf trait.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd be the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

With the latest post from Greenie, I feel like either she's innocent, or she's teamed up with Shasta - ergo (following my earlier logic of temporarily exonerating everyone except for Greenie, Shasta and Boro) I'd feel the safest lynching Shasta tonight.

Does anyone else suspect him at all?

I hardly have any substance on him, but to be fair he's mostly been commenting on general stuff plus he hasn't voted properly on either Day, so there can hardly be anything incriminating against him. However, I don't like how happy and unconcerned he seems - as if he'd feel no pressure to lynch a wolf - nor do I like the way he sort of sets himself above the arguments (take Nerwen and Eönwë for an example) and judges while simultaneously seeming to be happy to go whatever way the wind blows about the upcoming lynch.

Nnnnnnn. I can kind of see where you're coming from, but I'd feel uncomfortable lynching someone on such slim evidence. I do agree with you that Boro, Greenie, and Shasta look most likely to be our two (two? two) sorcerers (or you for that matter, though I'm agreeing with you so heartily just now that I'm more inclined to look at the others.)

[Coppermirror]

Well, I wrote up a big analysis of Echo, but there's no point in posting the whole long thing when there were so few conclusions to be drawn from it.

Echo's Day 1 vote for Kath is something that would have looked seerish to a Sorcerer-Kath, provided that the wolves actually knew that the Aura Reader got a pre-Day dream. The sorcerers would have been sensible to kill Echo off then, and didn't. They could have relied on Echo being a newbie who was just bluffing, or on people not believing the claims, but it would still be fairly risky and suggests that Kath is less likely to be a sorcerer, although by no means conclusively.

On Day 2, Echo was basically tapdancing on stage and singing that they were the Aura Reader, Holby was a sorcerer, and they would be killed for knowing too much. Overall, people's reactions to Echo were very similar and consistent. There doesn't seem to be much to learn from it.

Holby, Day 2

Lottie thinks Holby is alarming but that it may just be her style, and that it's easy to hide things with a style like that.

Nerwen thinks Holby is "Not necessarily evil, no– but not exactly helpful, either."

Shasta responds to Kath's annoyance about the lists and says after taking a second look, it seemed that Holby meant she suspected everyone but McCaber. He also thinks Holby's Day 1 vote looked panicky, and he wanted to know why Legate was more suspicious to her than Kath or me. This could either be a sensible train of thought or some subtle wolfy action, believing that Holby could be in trouble very soon.

Lommy asks Echo about why they suspect Holby, and thinks that Holby "looks fairly innocent". Hard to draw a conclusion from this here, as that would have been a sensible post for anyone.

Boro lists Holby among those who are "pinging on my suspicions".

At #133, Holby seems to suggest a Nerwen-Lottie pack. Given that she later voted for Nerwen and that she should have been able to see her eventual doom tap-danced out by Echo by then, I have to wonder if she was just trying to throw suspicion on innocent(s) or if it was subtle protection of Nerwen from a packmate. Holby's so confusing it's hard to tell.

#137 - Boro explains his suspicions of the Day, and of Holby says she's behaving with "textbook looking sorcery". He votes Lottie later in the post. If he's a sorcerer, that was actually pretty sensible, to voice suspicion of a wolf who would be going down perhaps the next Day, but not try to do anything to get them lynched on that particular Day.

#138 - Kath tries to reason out Holby's Day 1 vote, and thinks that if Holby was a sorcerer she might have been trying to save a sorcerer-me.

#147 - Lottie says "Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused."

#151 - Greenie says of Echo and Holby that they're confusing and "I don't know what either of these two are doing!"

#181 - Kath says "I am very unhappy about" Holby. This is pretty consistent with her Day 1 opinion.

#184 - McCaber says he'll vote Holby, who's suspicious. I don't think he could be a sorcerer, so there's no need to analyse that vote.

#188 - Lottie puts Holby in her "no read" category and says if she's isn't voting for Kath she'll vote for one of her no reads. This seems sensible enough.

#194 - Steve lists Holby in his "What?!" category.

#200 - Lottie votes Holby because she doesn't find the other two contenders all that suspicious, she already has one vote for her, and she wants to put forward someone who has a chance of being lynched. This looks a very sensible, innocent vote. But, it would actually be sensible for a sorcerer to vote this way too, if she wanted to secure people's opinions about her innocence even if it got Holby killed. Echo and McCaber were already very likely to vote for Holby. Technically Lottie cast the first vote, but in a way it was the third one. I think she's either innocent or a possible Saruman.

After that, votes for Holby come from McCaber, me, and Echo.

[Boromir88]

Don't really want to rush myself...but I love the random "I'm concerned about Boro...but I have no idea why I should be" occurances that simultaneously pop up after a few days. Nothing seems to ever stop that from happening. Although, the way Lommy is talking her head around in circles makes me feel pretty good about her.

Both of Shasta's votes aren't very good, but someone rushing to not be mod-fired and apparently with a serious lack of sleep making them. And since Holby pointed out not liking Shasta's abstaining vote in Day 1...I'm not sure if a wolf would do that against another mate.

Normally Day 1 debates over strategy and game mechanics turns out to be between two innocents...but with fewer people than the start and this about Echo being killed it's looking like some sorceric paws are in the frey.

I thought Eonwe was a bit too gun-ho at the start of the day. And that can look wolvish if it looks too much like wolf conversation from the previous night. But Nerwen's later reactions look bad too.

The thing I kept noting is she hasn't seemed to be as annoying in prodding and questioning people on everything. She did with Lottie some, and then today got on Eonwe...but then started backing off. Ermmm..today

++Nerwen

[A Little Green]

Great timing to only think of this this late, but I think I managed to put my finger on what bothers me about Boro. I know he's short on time and all that, but the time he does have he seems to use on who he doesn't find suspicious rather than who he does. I would think an innocent Boro, if in a hurry, would rather concentrate on possible wolf-suspects than elaborate arguments on why someone isn't suspicious. It strikes me as fishy.

Thus, giving the squabblers the benefit of the doubt for toDay (chiefly because I can't decide which of them looks worse),

++ Boro


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's 260, bolding

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?

Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.

[Eönwë]

So that's

Nerwen -> Eonwe
Boro -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Boro

so far

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen 1, Eönwë 1, Boro 1, right?

Out of these I prefer Boro, but I'd still like Shasta dead better. If Greenie and Shasta are indeed in cahoots and we end up lynching Boro because Greenie started it I'm going to feel sick.


edit: xed with Eonwe

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Great timing to only think of this this late, but I think I managed to put my finger on what bothers me about Boro. I know he's short on time and all that, but the time he does have he seems to use on who he doesn't find suspicious than who he does. I would think an innocent Boro, if in a hurry, would rather concentrate on possible wolf-suspects than elaborate arguments on why someone isn't suspicious. It strikes me as fishy.

Thus, giving the squabblers the benefit of the doubt for toDay (chiefly because I can't decide which of them looks worse),

++ Boro


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's 260, bolding

Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, you were suspecting him more than her, but it seemed to me you were keeping the option of stating to suspect Nerwen open as well.

Mmm, nope, not really. I don't particularly care for her apologetic votes, but I don't find that in and of itself a reason to think her suspicious.

++Eonwe

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh yah, that makes sense..."I don't know which of these two look the worse so let me vote for someone I'm not that suspicious of, but he always makes me nervous because it's Boro...and well he could be bad because he's Boro."

Thanks hun.

No worries, Boro, her sister's gunning for me because (as far as I can tell) everyone else looks more innocent? I dunno.

[Thinlómien]

++Boro

I will honestly apologise if you're innocent but I'm currently pretty sure Eönwë is innocent.


edit: xed with Shasta - ha, I will laugh if you two are wolves and Greenie is innocent, but I'll also hit my head against something if all four of us are innocent.

[McCaber]

I'm also pretty sure Eonwe is innocent, so

++ Boro

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

++Boro

I will honestly apologise if you're innocent but I'm currently pretty sure Eönwë is innocent.


edit: xed with Shasta - ha, I will laugh if you two are wolves and Greenie is innocent, but I'll also hit my head against something if all four of us are innocent.

Well, I don't know about that. But you might consider not narrowing things down so far with so many people still alive. That's almost as bad as Lottie's wolf-colored glasses syndrome.

[Thinlómien]

Alright, Shasta, let's call it a truce but I promise I'll get back to you toMorrow.

[Loslote]

++Boro

I'm sorry, hon, but I trust Steve more than you.

[Eönwë]

Well, one of my key suspicions about Greenie was her connection to Cop, but now that I'm considering Cop innocent, most of her other stuff seems pretty good to me.

I don't really find Lottie particularly evil- I haven't really seen anything yet that makes her guilty, despite what people are saying about her.

And it looks like time's running out so I'll stop there and hopefully have more time to express my opinion toMorrow.


However, I'm not too sure about Shasta

Won't lynch:
Lommy
Greenie
McCaber
Cop
Lottie

Might lynch:
Shasta
Nerwen
Boro
Kath

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Alright, Shasta, let's call it a truce but I promise I'll get back to you toMorrow.

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly.

[Eönwë]

Well, I have no idea what the total vote count is, but just to be sure:

++Boro

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly.

I'd rather have voted Nerwen, but that would leave us in a three-way tie and with no further progress.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, that's torn it then. Very nicely done.