WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Right, I had a quick look at Boro - with only five posts from him it didn't take that much time. He's busy, obviously, which might explain a lot. He votes Nessa on Day 1, not based on any valid reason I can detect. Quite a lot of people voted randomly that Day, but I still don't like it. Day 2 he votes Lommy based on an argument about her pointing out the silliness of voting Nerwen being fishy. He had suspected Lommy already on Day 1 because her RL conversation with me (that she related in her first post) had a fishy tone.

So? I was about to write "could be wolf, could be innocent" but realised that's a bit Captain Obvious-y.. His consistence on Lommy looks odd - the way he suspects her for something on Day 1 and a completely different thing the next. Brings me in mind of a wolf who has decided on a suspect and tries to be consistent with it. It's kind of weird that pretty much the only one he suspects is Lommy, and both times based on a different detail. Then again, it could also be that he's innocent, and the Day 1 suspicion guided him to read the next thing she said as wolvish as well? Argh.

I think my conclusion will be "leaning bad". I wish I had time to look at Leggy or Nessa, I think I'll try if there's still no one around when I post this..

Boro's an interesting one, as is Legate. I wouldn't worry about Nessa, though.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Boro's an interesting one, as is Legate. I wouldn't worry about Nessa, though.

Actually, having taken a look at Nessa, I'm inclined to agree. She looks better after inspection, though I'm not entirely convinced yet. Won't vote for her toDay. I don't have time for checking Legate's posts now - he has as many as Nessa but his tend to be quite lengthy.

[A Little Green]

So, looks like it's going to be Boro or Legate for me toDay. I'm rather torn right now - I suspect Legate a bit more, but I might feel better voting Boro since I have actually checked his posts.

[A Little Green]

Gah. Since I don't like voting without checking first..

++ Boro

I'm sorry for the lack of activity and the flood-posting toDay, I don't think I'll be back anymore. I should have a lot more time toMorrow if I'm still alive. Good luck guys!

[Inziladun]

Well done, Ranger! That moves toDay away from being make-or-break, which it could have been.

Pity that Lottie was wrong about Nog, but at least we still have another Hunter, and a Seer and a Ranger still. With nine of us left that makes it 6:3 against the wolves.

I wonder if anything can be made of yesterDay's votes. We know an innocent (Lottie) was supportive of the Hunter-lynch plan and another innocent (Nog was rather hesitant about it. Does that say anything about the stance people took on it? A wolf would have a reason to have been for it, with the possibility of two innocents at once going down, and to fear it, as xe or xyr packmate could have been targeted by the Hunter.

I'll be shortly going to work and have a doctor's appointment in a few hours as well , but I'll try to check in as often as possible during the workday.


x/d with the previous three

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well done, Ranger! That moves toDay away from being make-or-break, which it could have been.

Ha! You are striking me as pretty much the definition of a smooth, agreeable, eager-to-please wolf, Inzi.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

In fact, I think it's that tactic which moved Loslote to switch her vote from you to Nogrod. A mistake, I believe.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whoops, that was fast, Greenie...

Okay, but as for me, as I intended, I have now looked at LRH and Nessa to get some clearer idea about them...

So, first, Elrond-Hubby:

Day 1 - on Lottie's list of why everyone should be lynched, reacts with saying that she's being "a tad unfair", to which Nerwen reacts with joke-vote for her and Lommy with not-as-much-joke note about that being "typical newbie wolf mistake", to which LRH reacts with a bit of defence about simply newbie mistake.

Then continues with a bit of sad impression, whether acted or serious, "am I supposed to be the first innocent to be lynched?", later changing to cheering Lottie for her "support". Vote for Nerwen with not much reasoning behind it.

Generally: her vote is neutral, as much as basically everybody's was at that point. Her remarks and behaviour could be a deliberate Wolf action like "poor me" and later trying to "buddy up" with Lottie in order to get a supporter. If there is anything suspicious about her, it would be this.

Day 2: Does not like my reasoning and Lommy's (? not sure what exactly, maybe simply "unfriendly"), but says that she might be wrong. Later is confused by the Heir and hunter-reveal, but generally thinks lynching Lottie is okay. At some point, when Nog spoke against it, it seems she started considering what he said, but then Lottie was clearly going to be lynched and so she just followed suit.

Generally: not so much to go with, a bit of a wishy-washy behavior. I could see a Wolf possibly starting to consider Nog's idea in order to avoid lynching a Hunter (and thus giving the innocents the Heir and risking a Wolf being killed), but not sure what would she have expected of that, so I think that does not really bring any point. I will be very interested to see her post more.

**

Nessa:

Day 1 - some general remarks, saying WWs could vote W-on-W in this situation as they'd look innocent and also get the Heir, speculating about which role to lynch, later resigning and suggesting going with random-vote, then going for the uncommunicative, saying that everybody wants to be nice because of the Heir, suspecting Eomer, Nog and Nerwen, voting Nerwen.

Generally: If she was a Wolf, I could see some strategy in e.g. the advocating of lynching the uncommunicative (provided that her fellows were not among the uncommunicative), or in using the speculations about the lynch for her ends (now the question'd be what exactly those ends would be). But by itself, it does not mean anything.

Day 2 - saying WWs possibly went for sally because of her vote (for Lommy), speculating about the outcomes of lynching the Hunter, then throwing in the idea about Nerwen or sally being gifteds, only we don't know about it; and later being "all for hunter-revealment" (although in right the next post, she asked what Lottie meant when she voted herself). Voted Lottie.

Generally: There's not really anything that could be labeled as "suspicious", in my opinion. Her few moments of confusion sort of speak more for her innocence too (although she can be a confused Wolf as well, it just seems less probable).

Altogether, I don't find either of these two especially suspicious or especially innocent. I also cannot somehow imagine that they would be Wolves together (though that's more like just a "feeling of compatibility", anything is possible). They are in some way similar to each other (but maybe that's the newbie status of them in my eyes). Generally, I'd like to see more from them to get some better idea.

Otherwise, I think I might take a look at some other people too, when I am at it. I concur with Eomer's remark about Zil, that's what I meant about him sort of seeming to take the role of "Mr. Agreeable" (although this particular post does not strike me as much, but in some yesterDay ones it seemed to me more like that).

Off to browse the thread a bit...

[Thinlómien]

Ok I have to say my participation will suck toDay. I'll be back later to vote and say a few things but don't expect wonders, I've had work from morning and now I'm off to four hours' drive away to see a friend...

Anyway, kudos for the ranger! That kind of compensates for the extra ordo death yesterDay.

Now off.

[Thinlómien]

A thought before I go (got a few minutes extra time since my friend is late):

can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles. Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it.

Will be back to see what happens! Exciting.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

A thought before I go (got a few minutes extra time since my friend is late):

can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles. Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it.

Will be back to see what happens! Exciting.

I think there's no doubt we'll see a reveal today, but I guess people want to see some reactions to yesterday's craziness first. It's my belief that yesterday was close to perfection for the villagers. I'm very glad this Heir business is out of the way.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, I think I can afford a short break from studying.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

A thought before I go (got a few minutes extra time since my friend is late):

can somebody count if toDay would be a Day for reveals? If both seer and ranger revealed themselves and their information, we could have 3-6 known roles. Of course there is the danger of false reveals, somebody should also count if we can afford it.

Will be back to see what happens! Exciting.

K, so where we are at now: 3 Gifteds, 3 Wolves and 3 Ordos. Right? If both the Seer and Ranger reveal (Hunter revealing is bad), and the Seer has had 3 dreams, hoping that they are all still alive, then we would know 2 of the Gifteds and have a couple more known innocents and maybe a wolf. Then whoever the Ranger protected last Night, obviously innocent. So yeah, out of the 9 players we could know the identity of up to 6 of them. That could be very good. Now we'd likely lose one of them toNight, but the wolves would have a tough time figuring out who is being protected, unless their kill choice from last Night narrows it down for them. We could potentially still have our Seer tomorrow for another dream, though, which takes away some of that risk.

But yeah, false reveals are very possible, and oh so annoying. But again, doesn't take long to figure out who's lying, so it could be worth taking the chance.

Personally, I think we could afford it, though I wouldn't suggest both the Seer and Ranger revealing. Maybe the Seer first (especially if they have a wolf), unless all of their dreamed people are dead (though they'd have to be pretty unlucky for that to happen), then they shouldn't. Once the Seer is out we'd really want to have our Ranger still hidden in order to keep the Seer protected. So yeah, not both at the same time. Maybe Seer toDay (potentially) and Ranger tomorrow?

Sorry if some of that didn't make any sense, I can only afford to take a couple minute break before I get too distracted, so I wrote this fairly fast. I'll try to come back again later.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Personally, I think we could afford it, though I wouldn't suggest both the Seer and Ranger revealing. Maybe the Seer first (especially if they have a wolf), unless all of their dreamed people are dead (though they'd have to be pretty unlucky for that to happen), then they shouldn't. Once the Seer is out we'd really want to have our Ranger still hidden in order to keep the Seer protected. So yeah, not both at the same time. Maybe Seer toDay (potentially) and Ranger tomorrow?

I'd be very surprised if it wasn't the Seer who was successfully protected last night, and that would mean we need some hard information out in the open today.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey, don't tell me all that's been said in the past few hours was this little! We have the first Day when we can say something - come on...

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I think there's no doubt we'll see a reveal today, but I guess people want to see some reactions to yesterday's craziness first.

Me too, but I still hoped to see more people posting here...

I'm popping in just now, other stuff to do came up, but I'll appear sometime still...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I tend to agree, Legate, but this happens sometimes.

I'm pretty suspicious of you, by the way.

But there's only one person whom we should lynch today and I've named him already, former packmate of mine - I wish Loslote had kept her sight on you!

[Boromir88]

No one else thinks Lommy's over reaction to my random and poorly reasoned vote is the mark of an unsure wolf? Why worry so much about an early vote I said needed to be random because I have little time available through the rest of the week?

It may be better to lynch me at this point, because I know I'm being no good to anyone other than being a giant and most unusual questionmark. I've been able to do no thorough reading or thinking of any kind (honestly I've read nothing from day 2 other than some plan was made to lynch the hunter who then chose wrong and killed Nogrod. If anyone can, read who pushed that idea, as it backfired). I've considered tipping out, as I haven't been able to play the way I usually like to and give Shasta my best effort. But that won't do much good either and I figure as long as I can still post at least once a day and cast a vote, than there'd be no point to bow out.

So, if I'm being a terribly migraine causing question mark that you need to figure out, go for it and lynch me sooner rather than later. I still say Lommy very very over-reacting to my vote yesterday.

++Lommy

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I think there's no doubt we'll see a reveal today, but I guess people want to see some reactions to yesterday's craziness first. It's my belief that yesterday was close to perfection for the villagers. I'm very glad this Heir business is out of the way.

Me too...so care to be kind and reveal your sinister wolvery now?

[elronds_daughter]

Gracious, I haven't talked yet toDay... Can't say I've got much to contribute, though. My brain is rather a jumbled mess at the moment, but to gather what brief thoughts I can...

I'm finding my first instinct is to agree with Eomer that Inzil feels a tad slippery. Odd as this may sound, he just doesn't seem suspicious enough to not be suspicious. By which I mean, he doesn't seem to be throwing enough blame around. Which may just be coincidence, or may be an attempt to get by under the radar. And by "blame" I mean "large concentrations of suspicion". He's flung little bits and pieces of "it could be you" around at nearly everyone, but, even looking back through everything, I can't find any substantial claims.

Legate has spent some time analyzing myself and Nessa and come to a middle-of-the-road, maybe-or-maybe-not conclusion on both of us. This seems all well and good to me, if a bit unnecessary. But I suppose someone's got to be thorough, now that Nog is gone.

Greenie is very quick to vote for Boro. "Hrmmmmm" is all I have to say about that.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'll think about other villagers in a bit, in order to gain some ideas for tomorrow; but for now it can be only:

++INZILADUN

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wilwa - shouldn't be overlooked
Boro - quite suspicious, as usual, but not convinced
Elronhubbard - shouldn't be overlooked mk 2
Greenie - I think she's probably innocent
Inzil - obviously a wolf and must die in a gruesome fashion
Lommy - it would go against tradition to argue against her lynching
Legate - I am suspicious - reminds me of Inzi, a lot
Nessa - pure and innocent

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Third, sorry, Eomer, for voting for you twice in a row with terrible reasons, I was pretty sure you were the Hunter.

Oh, I knew that. Makes me consider you more innocent.

Greenie said Boro is fishy 'cos he suspects me everyday but for a different reason. And this Day kind of proves the point! I think Boro is overreacting, not me. Feeling threatened, eh?

Glad somebody did the maths for me. I think at least the seer should reveal toDay (hope it's not Greenie) and the ranger and the hunter can use their own judgement 'cos I guess there'd sides to them revealing and not revealing.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'd be very surprised if it wasn't the Seer who was successfully protected last night, and that would mean we need some hard information out in the open today.

Sadly that seems like a likely scenario... I think in most cases successful ranger saves are made to protect the seer.

Now I have to go and I won't be back. Play smartly.

++Boro

However, I wouldn't be too sad to find Zil dead after toDay either. Don't really have time to explain, but as pointed out, he is quite fishy and false-seeming.


edit: xed with Eomer

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not so sure if I would go for an all out reveal today, but a few might be okay. It's just that there's so many of us now that it would be a huge mess.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, this is starting to get at least a bit more active, though in a rather random way, so to say...

I must say some things are shaping rather curious, especially the Boro-Lommy exchange, each basically using the same arguments against the other. Lommy to me seemed all the time like her generally innocent self, with Boro I don't know, there really is not much what he said apart from this sort of several-day long crusade.

Now I am really thinking about the possible Seer reveal. I have to go and vote in probably a short time, as I want to get some sleep. I could vote Boro, although there are reasons why I am unsure to do it straightaway, and he probably is not around more so that we could read anything from him... or I could vote Zil, who already has one vote too.

And where is Nessa?

EDIT: x-ed. There.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Zil, you're being quite a slippery fellow, aren't you?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Going to bed now. All I can really think of is: don't waste today's lynch. Kill Inziladun. He should have went yesterday instead of Nogrod.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have to vote and I want to go to sleep. I think the time of awaiting miracles is basically passing...

Of my two options:

Inzil: basically the thing about being "too smooth" at some points. Okay, if you read his posts, he actually seems sensible, but question is more about whether he is being sensible, as in: trying to help, or if it is simply calculated. And I can well imagine a Inzilwolf acting that way...

Boro: has an ongoing crusade against Lommy who, in my opinion, looks innocent; moreover, he sort of keeps bringing it back urgently... otherwise, not really around. In any case, he is not being particularly "helpful", a questionmark... now I noticed he said this thing where he basically says he does not mind himself being lynched, which at least puts one doubt I had about him away, however on the other hand, it raises the question whether he would say that as a Wolf, to offer himself like that... though on the other hand, the village is not anymore in the position to lynch innocents, so it does not really make much sense for the ordos to do this, and possibly Wolf might use it as a cover.

In any case, I don't really want to vote any of the others apart from these two right now and in any case, spreading the votes any more does not make any sense, especially in these numbers, and I am not going to vote for Lommy.

Just a few moments more then, and then I will probably post for the last time and really go to sleep...

EDIT: x-ed with Eomer

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I think from my part, Boro can wait.

++Inzil

And I guess this will be all for toDay. Let's hope it goes well. Vote well, and good Night, village... may it be similarly lucky to the previous one...

[wilwarin538]

I'm going to have to vote and run...

I've skimmed through people's reasoning for suspecting Boro and Inzil, and the reasons make sense to me, so I'll go for one of them (admittedly I haven't read things through very thoroughly):

++Inzil

I really am sorry for my lack of participation. I don't really want to drop out of the game because we started off with so few, but I can't do anything to make my participation any better. Good luck!

x'ed with Legate

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Ha! You are striking me as pretty much the definition of a smooth, agreeable, eager-to-please wolf, Inzi.

Really? Evidence, please, instead of empty words?

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'd be very surprised if it wasn't the Seer who was successfully protected last night, and that would mean we need some hard information out in the open today.

That could be the case, but there's no way to know it.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Zil, you're being quite a slippery fellow, aren't you?

Latching unto unfounded, unexplained accusations, are you?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Inzil: basically the thing about being "too smooth" at some points. Okay, if you read his posts, he actually seems sensible, but question is more about whether he is being sensible, as in: trying to help, or if it is simply calculated. And I can well imagine a Inzilwolf acting that way...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, I think from my part, Boro can wait.

++Inzil

And I guess this will be all for toDay. Let's hope it goes well. Vote well, and good Night, village... may it be similarly lucky to the previous one...

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I'm going to have to vote and run...

I've skimmed through people's reasoning for suspecting Boro and Inzil, and the reasons make sense to me, so I'll go for one of them (admittedly I haven't read things through very thoroughly):

++Inzil

I really am sorry for my lack of participation. I don't really want to drop out of the game because we started off with so few, but I can't do anything to make my participation any better. Good luck!

And yet more. Would it be too much to ask for someone to give decent reasons before killing me?

[Nessa Telrunya]

It just ocurred to me that what strikes me as odd about your behavior ,Inzil, is that you're more upset with "lack of reasons for killing you" than pleading more on the basis of being good. Usually someone about to be lynched is all "Fine, whatever, you'll see I'm good once I'm dead and then you'll feel bad".

But you're spending so much more time defending yourself than going after others that I can't help but feel that you're getting a little desperate at being backed into a corner.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

It just ocurred to me that what strikes me as odd about your behavior ,Inzil, is that you're more upset with "lack of reasons for killing you" than pleading more on the basis of being good. Usually someone about to be lynched is all "Fine, whatever, you'll see I'm good once I'm dead and then you'll feel bad".

But you're spending so much more time defending yourself than going after others that I can't help but feel that you're getting a little desperate at being backed into a corner.

Aren't you being a bit self-contradictory? You say I should be "pleading" my innocence, yet at the same time "defending myself" makes me look "desperate".

Funny how you didn't seem to find me all that suspicious until Eomer came out with his completely unexplained "case".

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Aren't you being a bit self-contradictory? You say I should be "pleading" my innocence, yet at the same time "defending myself" makes me look "desperate".

Funny how you didn't seem to find me all that suspicious until Eomer came out with his completely unexplained "case".

And what, goodsir, are you implying?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

And what, goodsir, are you implying?

That you're at worst a wolf, and at best an innocent latching onto a flimsy excuse to vote someone.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

That you're at worst a wolf, and at best an innocent latching onto a flimsy excuse to vote someone.

Referencing the odd way your posts has sounded hardly sounds like a flimsy excuse.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, I'm about to hit the hay, so I'd better vote.

++Inzil

Nothing personal, I'm just glad to be able to go after wolves now that the heir-business is out of the way.

[Inziladun]

Come on, little Innocents! All I wanna do is play some mmuuusssiic!

[Inziladun]

Divination is an very imprecise branch of magic, you know. Eomer is a right old fraud.

[elronds_daughter]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Would it be too much to ask for someone to give decent reasons before killing me?

Zil, your defense does seem desperate. You're asking for people to give reasons why, but you haven't yet offered any reasons not to (except the recent above nonsense).

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Divination is an very imprecise branch of magic, you know.

And what on earth was that supposed to mean?

[Inziladun]

Isn't it DL?

[elronds_daughter]

Not for another hour or so.

[Inziladun]

10 PM CST? That's now.