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12-29-2008, 06:29 PM | #241 |
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For my reference, we have these people left.
Agan (assumedly the hunter) Sally (innocent) Gwath Eon Kath Shasta (no real posts) Izzy (hasn't shown up yet) So we know that Shasta and Gwath won't be online for the next day or so, at least as far as we're aware, and Izzy's completely MIA, so that leaves me with the options of Eon and Kath. Kath strikes me as safe, but almost too safe, if you know what I mean. I'm going to look at Menel's posts now, connection permitting, but for now my vote is almost guaranteed to go to one of those two. ETA: Of course it's possible that Agan's lying, especially since half the people are gone and the real hunter isn't me (aka the only consistently vocal person) so no one's probably going to challenge her. But for now I'm choosing to believe her.
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12-29-2008, 06:31 PM | #242 |
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I think it has been quite clear for long (why am I still alive?) so why not say it aloud.
You might only guess who I had picked yesterday... I'm not entirely dishonest about my suspicions. However I still have no real suspects apart from sally. I probably should try to form them at some point today. Anyway really off to sleep now. Good night dearies. edit: xed with a sally
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12-29-2008, 06:32 PM | #243 | |
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Quote:
Nasty Sally-hunter. Bad girl, bad! Tsk tsk! Go to bed, love. See you in the morning! (And please do post about Eon and Kath when you get the chance, as I'm going to be choosing between them pretty much regardless, unless something unexpected happens.)
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12-29-2008, 06:34 PM | #244 |
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Oh, and I'm quite sad that the wolves didn't believe my tiny bluff. I said in my first 'real' post that I already knew Brinn was innocent. Obviously it was because she was dead when I read the thread, but I was hoping that they would take the bait and kill me rather than the seer. Alas, poor Menel, we knew him well.
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12-29-2008, 07:16 PM | #245 |
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Why won't it let me bloody POST!!?!??!?!?!?!?!?
ETA: K. Better. I'm trying to post all of Menel's words into one post but it keeps telling me my message is too short and that it needs to be at least one character long. Sorry about the random angry moment. Just a bit frustrating. *goes back to figure out what's going on*
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12-29-2008, 07:25 PM | #246 |
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Forget this. I'm getting too angry at the stupid thing to worry about it right now. I'll be back when I can get it to work. Sorry, guys. (Not that any of you are around, but still....)
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12-29-2008, 09:22 PM | #247 | ||||||||||||||
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Day One
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Day Two Quote:
Quote:
Day Three Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
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12-30-2008, 06:23 AM | #248 |
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Seriously, nine hours with no posts?
No, I didn't die, but not for lack of trying. (Read that I got rather ill and decided to take a nap, not that I need to see a counselor. Just so that's clear.) I'm actually going to bed now but I'll be back up in a few hours and I will discuss Menel's posts, I promise.
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12-30-2008, 06:52 AM | #249 |
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Thanks for those posts by Menel sally, I've been reading them through but I think I'm getting more confused as I go. I would never have pegged him as the Seer and even now with that knowledge and his posts I'm having trouble working out who on earth he dreamt of.
He mentions Gwath, says that he thinks he could be a traitor. That might indicate a first Night dream except that a couple of Days later he drops suspicion of Gwath in favour of Strongbow, who has now been proven innocent and so cannot have been a dream. I think he might have actually dreamt of Agan and found her innocent. He argues with her a bit and then pretty much clears her apart from saying that going after Brinn was odd. He mentions me but I'm not sure what to make of that. Whether he did dream of me and so mention and then clear me within the Day or just based his opinion on my posts. I don't know whether he would start the Day basically announcing who he's dreamt of but in that subtle way - though I suppose it wasn't that subtle to everyone if the wolves figured him out. I guess that would be true for whether he dreamt of Agan too though as he mentioned her early in the Day and then sort of cleared her by the end of it. And again with sally I'm unsure because even after posting and using the words 'evil sally' and things that might suggest he's dreamt of her and found her evil he goes and votes for Strongbow who we know he cannot have dreamt of. I think we can be sure that Menel hadn't dreamt of two wolves even if he dreamt of every person above or surely he would have revealed. And Gollum said there was no before game dream so there will only have been two I believe. So I think the choice for those he might have dreamt of given the posts that he made would be: Gwath Agan Kath sally I am not sure which of those he actually dreamt of because I don't know his style. If he does actually mention who he dreamt of early in the Day and then says what he found out later then I would think he dreamt of Agan and/or me and/or Gwath and found whoever innocent. The thing with sally is that the way he talks about her is different to the way he mentions everyone else on that list which does make me think he found out something different about her - but would he really have voted for someone he didn't know the role of over someone he knew to be a wolf?
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12-30-2008, 11:46 AM | #250 | |
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Thanks for posting those quotes sally. And yes a post requires at least one letter in addition to quotes.
This should teach me to wait before revealing because if I was just someone Menel had probably dreamed of and found innocent the wolves might have come after me next night. Unless they had figured I was the hunter. Maybe. I don't really know what to make of Menel's posts. He might have dreamed of me, but then again he did misinterpret some things in my posts. He keeps toying with the Gwath/Bowie thing but doesn't indicate having dreamt of either. Bowie was innocent, and his mistrust of them included the idea of them both being wolves, so I don't know. I don't think he has dreamt of Gwath, but then there's this Quote:
The Evil Sally bolding caught my eye already yesterday because it isn't that usual that adjectives are bolded as well, and it might be a hint... But why didn't he vote sally then? Hmm he was the first to vote and I think I was the only one expressing constant suspicion of sally and it was not at all obvious that she'd be voted. Also, if sally's evil, it's possible he didn't want to draw her attention to himself by voting her. One thing leaves me wondering - why am I still alive? Did the baddies have me figured out early (which I wouldn't be very surprised of) or did they just have more important people to kill? To be honest I would have quite expected to die last night. Did they guess Menel was the seer or was he just a random kill? Unlike Boro and Nog, he isn't a very loud player, but he's one of the old school guys. Garr I don't know anything.
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12-30-2008, 12:07 PM | #251 | |
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Quote:
Well, off to Menel land. Back in a couple minutes.
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12-30-2008, 12:33 PM | #252 |
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Attention!
I realized when I multi-quoted the posts one wasn't added, so I put it in. Just so you can all (both, the way it's going right now) see it. I'm basically done with my analysis, but I need to do that post now since I realized I'd missed it. Give me like five or ten minutes so I can take care of bolding and things in my post and add the rest of it in, and I'll be back.
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12-30-2008, 12:45 PM | #253 |
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Day One
Okay, so the first 'accusation' of any kind is toward Gwath, saying that he's too tough on Bowie. But this was on the first Day, so while he may be right he couldn't possibly know for sure, as he had no 'pre-game' dream, poor fellow. Then he mentions Agan, dedicates quite a post toward her, and says that she looks pretty dern suspicious because she's after Gwath, that and her suspicion of Brinniel and all this business. He also accuses her of flip flopping, but not in so many words. Find Ilya a bit suspicious, and says that Gwath sounds suspicious no matter what he is, but votes Agan. Day Two But then, oh, then, he mentions Agan again. And if I'm not mistaken the gist of his post is "oh, just kidding, I read her wrong, I think she's innocent but I'll still keep an eye on her because I should". It makes me thinks that he possibly dreamt her innocent. In the same post he mentions Gwath and Bowie as possible partners. He then votes Gwath, well after the deadline but a vote nonetheless, and there were other candidates up (including myself and Agan, though Ilya was basically dead anyway so it was a throwaway of sorts) so I wonder if he did indeed dream Gwath. Thus, his possible dreams for the night of Boro's death, at least that would make sense with what he's posted: Agan (innocent/hunter) or Gwath (wolf/bear). The next Day he starts off his posting by noting the dead, our beloved and departed Boro and Nog. Who could do such a thing? Perhaps Kath, he suggests. She is a tricksy one, after all. In the next post he says he's gone through Kath's posts and there's not much to talk about, but he finds nothing that 'jumps out as suspicious'. That doesn't mean that he doesn't suspect her, only that he doesn't see anything in her posts that is suspicious. Perhaps he's dreamt her? Yay! He called me evil! Anyway, moving on. I was on the chopping block that day so since he didn't vote me I doubt he dreamt me. (And even if he did dream me....well, then he definitely wouldn't have voted me because I'm innocent, but I'm the only one who knows that so I won't take that into account.) If you're Miss Paranoid Agan Pants and assume that I'm evil, it could be a bluff by not voting me to keep him alive long enough to find my partner. I'll put the theory out there, even though it's not true. Also, he still finds Gwath and Bowie suspicious, but votes Bowie because he's overdefensive. Perhaps he'd dreamt Gwath already (whether this night or the night previous) and wanted to get rid of a possible unknown wolf? Then upon the dawn he could tell us that Gwath was the other furry fiend and we'd be rid of both of them and just left with the bear. Thus....possible dreams: Kath (wolf/bear), Sally (wolf/bear), Gwath....again (wolf/bear) He never mentions anyone but the five of us though. He talks of how we react to the other players, but never mentioned Eon, Shasta, Izzy, or any of the dead players in his suspicions. (Edit to this: that's not true, after I saw the Agan vote post. He also mentions Ilya, but the fact remains that he speaks of Gwath the most after Day One, along with Kath, Agan, and I. I'm not counting Bowie because he's dead.) My theory? His dreams were either Agan (innocent/hunter) and Gwath (wolf/bear), Agan (innocent/hunter) and Kath (wolf/bear), or Gwath (wolf/bear) and Kath (wolf/bear). So....Agan, my dear, it seems to be up to us (if you're trusting me again, which I doubt). Gwath or Kath? I'm assuming Gwath because Kath is hardly going to vote for herself and if Agan votes me then we definitely wouldn't get a wolf. At the same time, however, I feel rather unsports(wo)manlike killing Gwath while he's gone. But still.
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12-30-2008, 12:48 PM | #254 |
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Hmmmm. I don't think the Gwath/Kath dream analogy fits, come to think of it, because he would have found both the wolves (or a wolf and a bear) and I would assume he would let us know this information. Then again, with people so hard to read this game he may have not said anything specific. I'd like to hear other opinions, of course.
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12-30-2008, 01:12 PM | #255 |
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If I had to pick two people he had dreamt of, I'd say Agan (hunter) and sally (wolf/bear).
If he dreamt of me on night 1 (which makes the most sense), his Gwath vote means nothing. However I don't think he found Gwath a wolf even if he dreamt of him. In my opinion there isn't enough evidence pointing at it. Plus I find Gwath rather innocent-looking. If he found Kath a baddie, why didn't he try to find any evidence against her? Therefore a Kath dream doesn't make sense to me. I am for lynching sally today.
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12-30-2008, 01:18 PM | #256 | |
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Quote:
I think Gwath makes a bit more sense for a baddie than Kath, although I'd be amenable to lynching either. However, I think I'll have to go for Gwath, for reasons I stated before. Here's my predicament for the day. I don't know when/if I'm going into work (they have to fix a bunch of equipment or something so I don't know when they'll call me) but if I'm called in I might have to vote before I leave. Just letting you all know now. If I don't go to work today I'll hold my vote closer to deadline so we can have more discussion. I just wanted to keep you all in the loop.
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12-30-2008, 01:29 PM | #257 |
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By the way, we have to get toDay correct. Here's why.
We have seven players. (Agan, Sally, Kath, Eon, Gwath, Shasta, and Izzy.) Two wolves, and one bear. We kill an innocent toDay, who is not me, we have six players and two wolves. ToNight the wolves kill Agan, who will no doubt take me with her. Four players, two wolves. The wolves win. So if we have to lynch an innocent toDay, let it be me, I suppose. Because at least that way there's a chance that when/if Agan dies she'll take a wolf with her, instead of me. Obviously I'd rather survive, but if we lynch an innocent toDay we're pretty much dead unless the wolves don't kill Agan or unless Agan changes her mind and hunter picks someone else. (Or unless she's lying. But I'm too lazy to consider that possibility. Besides, I'm pretty sure she's misguided, not guilty.) So if it absolutely comes to it, I'll Nilp myself. But it's far from my first choice.
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12-30-2008, 02:01 PM | #258 |
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A few facts and figures.
There are (counting from my last post) 257 posts in this thread. Agan has 68. I have 47. That means that, between the two of us, we are responsible for 44.75% of the posts in the game. The dead players (Brinn, Boro, Ilya, Nog, Bowie, and Menel) have 78 posts between them, accounting for 30.35% of the posts. Gollum has 20 posts, or 7.78% of the game thread. That means that the other living players (Gwath, Eon, Kath, Shasta, and Izzy) all have under 20 posts apiece (all but Gwath have 15 or less) and between them account for 44 posts, 17.12% of the thread, and which also means that all of the other living players (sans Agan) combined have less posts than me. Don't be offended, I know a lot of the people who are alive are having internet trouble or are away yet for Christmas/New Years, I'm just bored and felt like crunching some numbers. Point is, I'd love to analyze people, but Izzy's got no posts, Shasta's only post is to say that he can't post, and the other three unknowns (again, assuming Agan's telling the truth about her being the hunter) don't strike me as particularly interesting either. Can't get blood out of a turnip, rock, whatever butters your toast, but the moral of the story is that this game is seriously lacking in posts. Oooo I haven't done the votes for yesterDay yet. Perhaps I'll do that. At least I'll give somebody something to read when they come back.
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12-30-2008, 02:11 PM | #259 |
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Votes from Day 1
Brinn-->Agan at 12:22pm Eon-->Gwath at 3:48pm Bowie-->Brinn at 4:50pm Boro-->Izzy at 4:51pm Agan-->Brinn at 4:57pm Noggie-->Brinn at 5:00pm Menel-->Agan at 5:06pm* Ilya-->Brinn at 6:11pm* Gwath-->Eon at 6:32pm* Did not vote: Izzy, Kath, Sally, Shasta Votes from Day 2 Sally-->Ilya at 2:24pm Kath-->Agan at 4:31pm Agan-->Ilya at 4:54pm Bowie-->Ilya at 4:58pm Ilya-->Sally at 4:58pm Menel-->Gwath at 7:23pm* Did not vote: Eon, Gwath, Izzy, Nog, Shasta Votes from Day 3 Menel-->Bowie at 4:03pm Agan-->Sally at 4:44pm Kath-->Agan at 4:55pm Sally-->Bowie at 4:59pm Eon-->Sally at 5:02pm Did not vote: Bowie, Gwath, Izzy, Shasta Again, underlined known guilty parties (not that we have any yet) and italicized known innocents (which are abundant). Times are Central, with a deadline of 5pm.
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12-30-2008, 02:19 PM | #260 |
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The wolves kill me if they dare. I'm a known innocent but there's also a risk I choose well and take one with me. However keeping known innocents around for long has its risks, and the sooner they kill me the slighter the chance I can guess right...
Just so you know, if I have picked an innocent when the wolves attack me, I don't kill him/her. So if you sally indeed are innocent, you have no reason to be worried. And it's not certain that I'm going to hunt you anyway. It irks me that we don't know if we need to find just one or even three baddies among the active players. By the way, if you exclude Gollum's posts, you and I are responsible for 49% of the posts.
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12-30-2008, 02:25 PM | #261 | |
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Quote:
Really? Oh.....heh, the way I've normally played the hunter's kill goes down no matter what their role. Heck then, hunt me all you like (although I'd obviously prefer you chose a wolf or the bear) and I'll just go on about my business. Well, I think that the bear is probably inactive, either that or both wolves are. Thus if one of those is the case it's obviously the bear who is idle. However, as someone pointed out earlier in the game, you can trace through night kills so if the bear can just sit back and let the wolves do their dirty work I'm sure they would. At the same time, though, it would be in their best interest to try to kill the wolves, thus making sure that the wolves don't kill them first. Okay, so Agan, barring me, who do you suspect the most? Heh, yeah I know, but leaving Gollum's posts in there made it look a bit better.
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12-30-2008, 02:28 PM | #262 |
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Oh forgot to say this.
Menel didn't leave any clear hints to his dreams. Therefore I don't think he would necessarily have voted you if he had dreamt of you and found you evil, so that's not a valid argument. And when he voted there were no other votes in and he couldn't know if you got voted at all. Therefore I find it understandable that he voted someone else in order not to get too much attention from the baddies, or because he didn't think he'd die so he rather wanted to check out one who he wasn't sure about yet. edit: xed
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12-30-2008, 02:31 PM | #263 | |
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Quote:
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12-30-2008, 02:40 PM | #264 |
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Trying to get the hunter to tell about her plans, eh?
Hmm who are still alive? Eeeeek I have no idea. I have some minor suspicions about Kath. I feel quite good about Gwath and Eönwë, maybe more so with Eönwë (who hasn't shown up for some time though). About Shasta and Izzy I don't know, obviously. If I can't come up with anyone and we lynch you now and you're innocent, I could of course hunt Izzy or Shasta and you'd have a known innocent if I died in the night and took no one with me... But that's just an option and if I'm going to do it, I'll tell you in advance.
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12-30-2008, 02:43 PM | #265 | |
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Quote:
Oooo now there's a good plan. Course if you pick a wolf the wolves just won't kill you. Like I said before, I could go for Kath, but I'd prefer Gwath by a small margin, mostly because we'd still have talkative players. Then again, I think he's supposed to be back tomorrow, so I would be fine either way. Let's see who else shows up, yeah?
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12-30-2008, 02:46 PM | #266 |
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Or then they try to bluff but however I'd still be alive tomorrow.
Or... sally we could make a deal? If you're a baddie you don't eat me and I won't hunt you and then we lynch everybody else and win together?
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12-30-2008, 02:51 PM | #267 | |
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Quote:
Heh I'd go for it. Unfortunately, I'm not a baddie so how about you hunt me all you like and we still lynch everyone else and win this thing together?
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12-30-2008, 03:02 PM | #268 | |
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Ok, well I've come back.
I'm just going to go and reread posts some posts. Quote:
Still, I have 15 posts (now 16). It doesn't really matter, but still. Or maybe it does matter. Maybe you're deliberately trying to make it look worse, and it is part of your plan for world (or at least village) domination. Or maybe it makes you more innocent, as a wolf might not be do careless.
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12-30-2008, 03:08 PM | #269 | |
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Quote:
oooops. you're right. *shifty eyes*
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12-30-2008, 03:53 PM | #270 |
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Little over an hour until deadline. Anyone around?
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12-30-2008, 03:57 PM | #271 |
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Yes I'm here.
I still think killing sally would be a good thing to do today.
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12-30-2008, 04:00 PM | #272 | |
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Quote:
Okay, let me rephrase that. Anyone besides Agan here?
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12-30-2008, 04:05 PM | #273 |
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I'm here too.
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12-30-2008, 04:05 PM | #274 |
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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12-30-2008, 04:18 PM | #275 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Do you really want me to say?
I'm thinking I might agree with Agan.
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Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place
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12-30-2008, 04:19 PM | #276 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Quote:
In which case.... ++Gwath On the off chance that we'll get someone who is possibly a wolf rather than me, whom I know is not.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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12-30-2008, 04:22 PM | #277 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Sorry, hate to be selfish, but if you guys kill me I know we don't catch a wolf. If we kill someone else (as I've been saying all day I was up for either Gwath or Kath and currently I feel better -rather, worse, I suppose- about him than I do her) there's a chance that we'll catch a baddie.
If nothing else getting my vote in first gives me a chance to survive and hopefully buys the village another Day.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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12-30-2008, 04:23 PM | #278 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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I do.
I think we should lynch sally today because your hunter isn't of much use as long as sally is alive. Also, if Menel dreamt of any baddie, I think it's bound to be her. edit: xed since Eönwë. Gah I should probably have refreshed the page before starting to write a post. Anyway that's good to hear.
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12-30-2008, 04:24 PM | #279 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
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Kath, I really hope you're here. Or coming soon.
I also hope you're innocent, and that my vote is not as incorrect as Agan's. EDIT: x'd with Agan.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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12-30-2008, 04:28 PM | #280 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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++sally
Whatever the outcome, I apologize. And if you're innocent I hope you get your revenge when I'm left here with four times more posts than anyone else. If she's a wolf I'd take a second look at Kath as well.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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