Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Kath]

Ok I've waited about as long as I can. Since there have only been 3 posts I can't use anything said toDay to make my mind up. Therefore:

++MORMEGIL

For the same reasons as yesterday.

(I know this is shockingly early - check out the other thread for why.)

[The Saucepan Man]

Ah, the irony of it. All those fine legal speeches at the outset counselling against the lynch mob mentality because it was most likely to end in the death of innocents and now I myself have the blood of three innocents on my hands.

I had no idea that Cailin was one of our Gifted villagers and I strongly doubt that the Wolves did either. As far as I can see, she sensibly left no clues as to her identity. I am truly sorry for my part in her death.

Ah well, we must press on with our endeavours to find the Wolves and perhaps avenge her and the others that have died. Though I hesitate to take up my own role in this once more, as I have made such poor choices so far and am wearied by it.

Here are yesterday's votes, for what they are worth:

1. Wayne for Wayne (Wayne-1)
2. Gil-Galad for Wayne (Wayne-2)
3. Malkatoj for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-1)
4. Glirdan for SpM (Wayne-2, SpM-2)
5. Mormegil for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-1)
6. Nilp for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-2)
7. SpM for Cailin (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3)
8. Naria for Formendacil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1)
9. TGWBS for mormegil (Wayne-2, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
10. Dancing spawn for Wayne (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-3, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
11. Garin for Cailin (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)
12. Kath for mormegil (Wayne-3, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
13. Formendacil for Wayne (Wayne-4, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
14. Cailin for Wayne (Wayne-5, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)
15. Marcolie for Wayne (Wayne-6, SpM-2, Cailin-4, Formendacil-1, mormegil-2)

I fear that they will tell us little. I have been carrying out some research into voting patterns overnight and will share my conclusions shortly, once I have collated them into something intelligible.

[The Saucepan Man]

You know, despite our best endeavours to spread the voting on Day 1, it is now looking very much (at least from my perspective) like not one vote was cast for a Wolf. And I suspect that the following Days were not much different. Let me explain how I have reached this conclusion.

On Day 1, of 17 votes cast, 14 were for people that we now know to be innocent. That's 82% of the votes on Day 1 for known innocents! The remaining three votes were cast for me and Nilp. Since I am fairly certain of Nilp's innocence, that means that, from where I am standing, not one Wolf was voted for on Day 1.

Day 2 was a bit better. Of 12 votes cast, 6 were for known innocent (50%), or seven from my perspective as one vote was cast for me.

On Day 3, we had a relapse. Of 15 votes cast, 10 were for known innocents (66.6%), or 12 (80%) from my perspective.

Overall, out of a total 44 votes cast over the three days, 30 have been for known innocents. That's 68%. For me, the figure rises to 34 (77%).

Considering that not all of the votes for those whose identity is not yet known will have been for Wolves, it is clear that we do not have a very good strike rate.

So, what does that tell us?

1. While voting patterns are normally of some help in finding Wolves, that is only the case when there are Wolves among those who are in the running and/or when we actually manage to find a Wolf. As matters stand, given our poor strike rate, the voting patterns are about as much use as a post by Formendacil. (That's unfair - he was actually rather constructive in the latter stages of yesterday. Although the comparison may not be so unfair, as there may be something we can learn from the voting patterns, as I hope to show.)

2. The number of innocents that a person has voted for is, in these circumstances, not a particularly useful guide for determining who might be a Wolf. Four of us have voted for three innocents (mormegil, dancing spawn, Garin and myself). I doubt that any more than one, at most, of these is a Wolf. Shelob, a known innocent, cast both of her votes for innocents. And Cailin, also a known innocent and our esteemed Ranger, cast two of her three votes for innocents. Two other villagers - Formendacil and Kath - have voted two out of three times for innocents. In fact, only two villagers have not voted for a known innocent - Glirdan and Naria. And I (although I alone) know that Glirdan has in fact voted for an innocent twice (with one "no vote").

3. In light of the way that the voting has gone, there has been little need, if any, for Wolves to vote to go out of their way to get an innocent lynched. We have done that for them.

I conclude from this that we should perhaps not be looking at those who have voted on a number of occasions for known innocents. In the circumstances of our past three days' voting, this would have been unnecessarily risky behaviour for the Wolves. It seems to me that they are much more likely to have been placing "safe" votes, since we have given them the opportunity to do just that.

I acknowledge that these musings might be seen as self-serving, given that I have voted for three different known innocents. But I hope that you will see that there may be some merit in them. And perhaps they might actually help us to bag a Wolf today.

More in a bit with my thoughts on individual villagers - for what they may be worth.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Interesting post, Sauce. I see we have been thinking about the same thing yesterday.

From the voting patterns of DAY 1 and 2--this was before I saw the results of DAY 3--there were two groups of two people that leapt to me. Yes, they really did.

Note this (known innocents in underline):

DAY 1
1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. WaynetheGoblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

DAY 2
1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Block A: Kath - Garin

DAY 1: Garin votes for Valier
Kath seals Abercrombie's fate.

DAY 2: Kath votes for Valier
Garin seals Shelob's fate.

NIGHT 3: Valier is killed by the Werewolves.

Block B: Glirdan - Formendacil

DAY 1: Form votes for Valier (well, this is irrelevant)
Glirdan votes for SpM

DAY 2: Form votes for SpM for 'controlling the game.'
Glirdan is silent.

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.

Block B is still unconvincing for me. Hmmm, but does mormegil's attack on Cailín fit the second scenario? . . . No, his attack on her began even before she pointed at Sauce.

Okay, I'll be back in a few hours for more thoughts and a vote.

Don't change the channel!

[The Saucepan Man]

As much as Cailin's redoubtable intelligence concerned me when I feared her to be a Wolf, I trust it in one that I now know to have been innocent. Armed with the knowledge of her innocence, I respect her judgement.

Originally Posted by Cailin yesterday

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)

Setting myself aside (as it is for you to decide whether you trust me), I am inclined to view each of these villagers favourably for the time being, both on the basis that Cailin trusted them and on the basis of my own instincts (although they have not exactly served me well so far ).

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ).

TGWBS has, after a slow start, talked little but good sense. I agree with almost everything that he has said. His conclusions on mormegil are perhaps an exception, but I can certainly see how he got there. If he is a Wolf, he is playing an exceedingly good (albeit fiendish) game.

My original suspicions of Glirdan lessened considerably yesterday. And, the more I think about it, the more his behaviour looks to me to be that of an innocent. I do not think that a Wolf would have pressed the case against me so strongly over the course of three Days, since he would immediately have been under suspcion were I to have been lynched. As I have said, there has been no need, given the way that the voting has gone, for the Wolves to have taken such risks. I know that this will not help others' conclusions about Glirdan, but it greatly assists me.

TGWBS made some good points in Kath's favour yesterday. Her votes, and particularly her Day 1 vote, look decidedly un-Wolfish to me in light of what we now know. Her early vote today is slightly unnerving, but I am willing to accept that there are good reasons for it. Moreover, whether mormegil is innocent or guilty, it is a foolish vote for a Wolf. It is quite possible, as matters stand, that he will be lynched today and, if that happens, a Wolfish Kath risks either losing a partner in crime, if he is guilty, or attracting immediate suspision, if he is innocent. So I do not think that Kath is a Wolf.

I continue to believe malkatoj innocent, mainly for the Aiwendil/Kath vote, but also because it would have been unnecessarily risky for a Wolf to vote for me at such an early stage yesterday (again, that helps only me).

I am still inclined to believe Formendacil when he says that he would have been paying much more attention to proceedings were he a Wolf. I do not discount the possibility that he is bluffing. But, again, there has been little need for the Wolves to take any risks thus far, and Formendacil's approach has been risky, if he is a Wolf. Currently, I don't think that he is.

Which brings me to a difficult trio: mormegil, dancing spawn and Garin. Their votes, on the face of it, would appear to incriminate them. Although no more than mine. I can hardly accuse them of being Wolves on the basis of their voting record, given my own poor record. And, as I have said, their votes look to me to be unnecessarily risky ones for Wolves to have cast. Thus far, I have been inclined to trust mormegil and dancing spawn because they have seemed to me to be talking good sense. The fact that dancing spawn has hardly been considered as a possible Wolf concerns me, but I am prepared to give both of them the benefit of the doubt for the time being. If they are innocent, they are worth having around. Garin I have been less sure about and I will keep an eye on him, but I don't have any specific reason for suspecting him at present. I do, however, have a concern that there may be one bold Wolf (two at a stretch) amongst this trio.

So that leaves me with Gil-Galad, Naria and Marcolie Lamen.

Gil-Galad I have no idea about. Like Wayne, he can look suspicious when he is not. His stated reason for voting for Wayne yesterday (that he may have been a Wolf "pulling a Nilp") seems reasonable to me. And his behaviour to date has been much as I would expect from him. So, difficult to say.

Marcolie Lamen, I have no handle on. Her two "no votes" might be regarded as suspicious, and therefore unduly risky for a Wolf, but she has given reasons why she was not able to vote and they apply whether she is innocent or guilty. And it is difficult to draw any conclusions from her vote yesterday, as it was rather forced on her by circumstances. It is fair to say, however, that her voting record has attracted little attention to her so far.

My main suspicion at the moment, therefore, is directed towards Naria. Other than Glirdan (who has voted twice for me), she is the only one of us to have cast no vote for a known innocent. Which, on the basis of the theory which I outlined earlier, makes her very suspicous in my eyes. As has been noted on a number of occasions, her vote for Nilp right at the end of Day 1 was a very safe vote for a Wolf to make. She did not vote on Day 2. And her Day 3 vote for Formendacil, while it carried with it the possibility of getting him lynched, was actually very unlikely to do so in light of the way that the day was going. I do not discount the possibility that it was a Wolf on Wolf vote.

So, to summarise (and excluding myself):

Probably innocent
Nilpaurion Felagund
TGWBS
Kath
Glirdan

Prepared to continue to give the benefit of the doubt
Formendacil
mormegil
dancing spawn
Garin

No idea
Gil-Galad
Marcolie Lamen

Probably a Wolf
Naria

Note that I think it unlikely that our Wolfish trio comprises Gil-Galad, Marcolie Lamen and Naria, so there is at least one Wolf, possibly two, elsewhere on my list. Probably among the four that I am currently giving the benefit of the doubt to - problem is, I have no idea which.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I have been fairly convinced of Nilp's innocence for most of the game. I still am. I may be wrong but, if I am, I shall never quiz with him again ( ). (SpM)

You won't take a pointed object, paradrop to the Philippines, and stab me repeatedly? Awww . . .

The way I see it, we have a crisis (duh), and everyone is reverting to type.

Sauce is like a lawyer presenting a case everyday to a jury. Unfortunately, the jury thinks he's not been doing good, so it almost decided to kill him.

spawn . . . well, if I were to enumerate her positive traits, the Downs might collapse on itself and become an internet blackhole. So . . . she consistently makes good sense, to me at least.

Garin is Garin. See previous game, and his junior game.

daga'y is quite fond of me, like in the previous game. Why? What do you see in me?

mormegil is scary. Always has been for me, 'cept when we were Shirriffs.

Kath is confusing.

Glirdan, too.

Gil-galad . . . no comment.

Naria makes some sense, but posts very little to go on. See previous game.

Marco . . . well, haven't played with her yet. Sorry.

Wait, but what about Formendaga? He's acting weird . . . and don't tell me you're not playing a smart Cobbler or Werewolf. It takes smart people to act stupid. I know. I'm too stupid to act stupid.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

You won't take a pointed object, paradrop to the Philippines, and stab me repeatedly?

Repeated stabbing would be to good for you. On further consideration, perhaps I should just bar you from the Quiz/Quotes Rooms altogether if you turn out to be a Wolf ...

Originally Posted by Nilp

The way I see it, we have a crisis (duh), and everyone is reverting to type.

Indeed. Your own post bears you out on this.

Interesting thoughts, Nilp. I shall muse them over.

Originally Posted by Nilp

DAY 3: The attack on Sauce commences. One of the loudmouths (in this case, Cailín) saw him 'controlling the game.' Glirdan votes for SpM. The attempt fails, and blame is shifted to the loudmouth who 'orchestrated' the attack (i.e., Cailín), despite the fact that the attack has already started from DAY 2.

The way I currently see it, the Wolves have not actually been doing much to attack innocents in any concerted way during the day. They have most likely left that to the innocents themselves (we have been unwittingly obliging in this regard) and concentrated on laying low.

You will all no doubt be relieved to hear that my legal duties (RL: job) will prevent me from participating much tomorrow. I will get a chance to look in during the afternoon and will certainly take into account all that has been said when I cast my vote.

If I were to vote now, it would be for Naria. But that could change, depending upon how today's dicsussions go.

[mormegil]

Nilp, I know not what to say to you. You are analyzing more than I have ever seen before...are you a wolf?

Wait, but what about Formendaga? He's acting weird . . . and don't tell me you're not playing a smart Cobbler or Werewolf. It takes smart people to act stupid. I know. I'm too stupid to act stupid.

This is what I was trying to get at before but I didn't say it as Nilpy as Nilp said it.

SpM I like most of your thoughts and they seem to make some sense to me. Where I disagree is how many people you are willing to consider innocent. I for one have not and will not give Malka innocent status based on her vote for Aiwendil. We are far to willing to do this and I have warned against it adamantly but nobody seems to listen to this.

I do agree that TGWBS is innocent and most likely Nilp only because he seems to be very helpful, which is so odd that I don't know if he might be a wolf...this new behavior confuses me. Kath I'm thinking is innocent but I don't know if I'd put her in that category yet.

Looking over Kath's post (you know the long one) I found something that strikes me as odd. She doesn't like my reason for voting for Cailin and votes for me based on that, yet SpM and I seemed to think very similarly throughout the day and SpM used, in my opinion, similar logic as mine, however more well articulated. Yet Kath doesn't seem to suspect him, nor does she seem to suspect anybody else who voted Cailin. I'm not saying that Kath is guilty or that SpM, Nilp, Garin and any other that may have voted for her are guilty but I am saying that my track record does not make me guilty as it doesn't mean that the others are necissarily guilty. I was getting annoyed with TGWBS's requests because I found them repetative and frequent. I thought I had answered his queries, yet he asks again for the a response. I try to be subtle yet it doesn't work so I am forced to be more overt.

[Glirdan]

This is not good, not good at all. Cailin the Ranger... Well, she definetly didn't come off as a Gifted. And now the village is definetly in trouble. All I have to say is that the Hunter should remain hidden as well (obviously) the Seer. We need to get these Wolves and fast.

Something is still not sitting right with me about SpM. I'm very surprised that he's not been lynched yet. This could mean a one of two things. One, he's a Wolf. Two, he's been suspicious of a Wolf and it's to dangerous to attack him because it will lead to many clues. In answer to SpM's question from yessterDay:

I wish you would explain this.

It is not about your Day 1 approach. I'm not quite sure what it is. I think it's mostly that fact that you are still alive toDay. I would have thought that thw Wolves would have been smart enough to attack yourself, morm and spawn early on and get you out of the way. But as I said above, that's only one of two possibilities and now, I'm sort of leaning towards the second option. However, that does not mean you're completely out of my suspicions.

It is way to quiet toDay and I must vote soon and I really don't have much to go on. So I might end up voting for SpM or Gil. His vote yesterDay was rather odd. Like he was really anxious to fet rid of another innocent. I'm actually leaning towards voting Gil right now. I will wait a little longer, but then I must vote.

[Glirdan]

Grrrr!!! I wish people would speak!! Now I have to vote and with not a whole lot to go on either!! I shall do as I said above.

++Gil

For reasons stated above.

I'm afraid that I won't be back at all toDay. I wish you the best of luck my friends. May we finally find one of those fiends and lynch him/her properly!!

~Glirdy~

[mormegil]

I am not voting yet however I've been thinking on it a great deal and will make my intentions known. I think I will be voting for Formendacil, this could change if evidence is presented that sways me. The most frustrating part is that he is intelligent and is not helping. I find this very wolfish and I've been able to gauge him from past experience and he loves nothing more than to live on the edge. He has been insulting that we aren't doing anything and killing innocents yets doesn't help himself. At a minimum I think we will kill the cobbler at best we get a wolf. Either way it seems a win/win situation for us.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

And this is possibly my last appearance here, so I'll vote afterwards.

Nilp, I know not what to say to you. You are analyzing more than I have ever seen before...are you a wolf? (morm)

Boy, I wish I were. With daga'y and Sauce trusting me, I might win this game.

But no. No. Not a Werewolf, unless you believe my first post. I just realised that smart people get more reps than funny but useless people in WW. So, call it greed.

Enedwaith . . . I've been thinking about the votings, and how utterly stupid we have been, so here's another nifty list. The persons within the list are arranged according to how I trust them.

People not yet voted for:

spawn
daga'y
Marco (don't know what to make of her.)
Glirdan
Kath
Gil

People who had received not more than one vote in a DAY:

malka
Naria
Form

People who had received more than one vote:

Nilp
Sauce
morm
Garin

I am quite certain that at least one Werewolf has never been voted for before.

I am also quite certain that there are at least two bad guys (Werewolf or Cobbler) in the first two lists.

Now, I also tried looking at the ties made/broken during the previous votings, and I came up with this interesting figures: Garin broke a tie thrice, all in 'favour' of a innocent.

Now, considering this and all my other previous analyses, these people are suspicious:

Garin
Form
Gil
Kath
Glirdan

I don't know . . . Glirdan I'll give another DAY, since I'm only suspicious of him mainly due to his SpM attacks and not much else.

Kath . . . Well, if she's a Werewolf, and she's the only one left, since she's gone, we win.

Garin, Form, or Gil . . . *deep breath*

What say we give Form a chance to redeem himself, and let's get Garin tomorrow instead?

++Gil-Galad

[mormegil]

The Saucepan Man 32
the guy who be short 25
Cailín 24
Garin 22
mormegil 21
Glirdan 20
malkatoj 14
dancing spawn of ungoliant 13
Nilpaurion Felagund 11
Kath 9
Valier 8
Gil-Galad 7
Aiwendil 6
Formendacil 6
Shelob 6
WaynetheGoblin 5
Naria 5
Márcolië Lamen 4
AbercrombieOfRohan 4


This is the total number of post up to this point. I find it moderately disturbing that there are so many that are being so quiet. I bolded the ones who make me the most nervous. It seems that there are only a handful of us who are speaking a good amount and only a few that are moderate speaker. Yet we get yelled at because we are trying to 'influence' the village. My problem is that lack of that attempt from so many of our quiet ones. I believe that they may be sitting back waiting for many of the loudmouths to kill each other off....basically I would like to hear more from a lot of people. It's hard to make a determination of people's guilt or innocence when about 50% of us don't speak sufficiently.

[Formendacil]

Dear, dear...

I seem to be making a good deal of mentions today, without actually heading up anyone's list of suspicions. Out of character, am I?

Well, perhaps... but who here actually knows what my character actually is! After all, the facade I have presented in all games thus far might be no more than playacting!

I regret that I cannot be online more often, so as to annoy you all the more... but work, sleep, and self-imposed Church commitments severely limit such things...

Morm says I like living on the edge. He's right, you know. And maybe, just maybe, I want to get pushed off for a change. This is the sixth Werewolf game out the last seven main ones that I've been a part of... Perhaps I want an early death so as to enjoy a breather ere I, like a druggie to weed, sign up for ANOTHER round.

Or, perhaps, I'm enjoying finally being an innocent again, and am using it do Nilpish, Gil-ish, Fea-ish, Lhuna-ish stuff that I'd never do as a serious Gifted.

Or, perhaps, I'm a very, very clever Werewolf. I am smart enough for it, you know.

All that I'm going to PROMISE you is that I'm not the Cobbler. I do want the Wolves dead, and any confusion I give you, except when pertaining to myself, is completely unintentional...

However, enough about me- even though I am the most important person around here- now it is time for a moment of analysis...

It being 1:30 am in my timezone, I shan't try and look deeply at everyone. Instead, I'll just make another comment or two regarding the Saucepan Man. Strange, how he keeps coming up.

Specifically, I want to present that facet of his gaming habits thus far that affects me the most, namely his suspicions concerning me.

Early toDAY, SPM said of me that he's still willing to accept my excuses, and to give me the benefit of the doubt. In fact, his entire attitude today has been one of tolerance towards my peccadillo-esque behaviour. I find this in opposition to his attitude of yesterday, where he was perhaps one of the less tolerant. In fact, he seems to me to have almost made an about face of opinion: almost as if, now that I've built up enough village-wide suspicion to be lynched, he wants to distance himself from me, so as to be able to claim, once I am lynched, that he had nothing to do with my death. Of course, such a trait would suggest that he is a Werewolf. It would also be proveable by my death... which I'd really rather pass on at the moment.

In brief conclusion, I have no more evidence regarding the Saucepan Man's innocence or guilt than I did before, but I lean towards Glirdanism in this matter....

[the guy who be short]

I only have a few minutes at my disposal, little more than sufficient to highlight my basic points.

Firstly, I am still most suspicious of mormegil. I shall provide reasons later, but they're the same as yesterday; the subtle influencing of the village whilst accusing Cailin of the same, the inadequate responses. I'll have a list up in the evening, hopefully.

There are several villagers I cannot make my mind up about: Marco, Naria, Garin, spawn, Formen and now SpM, Gil are amongst these. They merit looking into, but I trust only myself and select others to do so. I shall do this when I am able.

My only other serious suspect yesterday was Glirdan. I only have time to say that I no longer believe in his guilt.

Farewell for a few hours.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

YesterDay's votes:

Wayne -> Wayne
Gil -> Wayne
malkatoj -> Sauce
Glirdan -> Sauce
mormegil -> Cailín
Nilp -> Cailín

It's a three-way tie between two known innocents and Sauce. Obviously Sauce won't vote for himself so...

Sauce -> Cailín
Naria -> Formendacil (Score: Cailín-3, Wayne-2, Sauce-2, Formendacil-1)

Yay, Naria can't been swayed. I'd still like to know what she thinks of other villagers because even though she gives reasons for her vote, it's pretty tough to analyze her when she doesn't show her opinions in public.

TGWBS -> mormegil

A new interesting theory is presented.

spawn -> Wayne
Garin -> Cailín (Score: Cailín-4, Wayne-3, Sauce-2, Formendacil-1, mormegil-1)

Originally Posted by Nilp

Now, I also tried looking at the ties made/broken during the previous votings, and I came up with this interesting figures: Garin broke a tie thrice, all in 'favour' of a innocent.

Garin has indeed broken a tie thrice, but the ties have been between innocents (or himself), so it has been a lose-lose situation from the beginning.

Kath -> mormegil

At this point Cailín says she's the Ranger.

Formendacil -> Wayne

After Formendacil's vote, Cailín and Márcolië have to vote for Wayne in order to give the Ranger another night, so Márcolië's vote doesn't really tell anything.

Cailín -> Wayne
Márcolië -> Wayne

Final score: Wayne-6, Cailín-4, Sauce-2, mormegil-2, Formendacil-1.


I don't get it why Wayne voted for himself and hoped that the wolves would win if he was an innocent. *sigh*




And now, semi-traditionally, here's a brief summary of toDay's discussion.

mormegil: Says he's lacking confidence and is unsure what direction to go now. Thinks that Formendacil could be bluffing, but is hesitant to start accusing him after mistaking earlier. Wonders Nilp's helpfulness and finds it confusing, agrees with most of Sauce's thoughts, but isn't ready to consider as many people innocent as him, although mormegil thinks that TGWBS, Nilp and Kath are likely to be innocents. Won't let malkatoj off the hook just because of the Aiwendil vote, wonders Kath's reason to vote for him. Later says that might vote for Formendacil because of the presented arguments and because he's intelligent and still isnt helping. Thinks that he's a wolf or at least the Cobbler...

-There has been surprisingly much fuss about Formendacil today and I kind of understand why. However, some things he has said have made me think that he could be innocent villager after all. I don't know if I'm being stupid, stubborn or if I'm about to walk into a trap, but I'd let him live for now-

...Makes a list about how many times people have posted and suspects those who haven't posted much, would like to have the silent ones to talk more.

-I agree with this-

Gil: Has lost all hope, says that maybe people shouldn't listen to him anymore.

malkatoj: Says Cailín's death doesn't leave us any clues to follow, suspects TGWBS and spawn, but doesn't explain why. Is also growing suspicious of Gil because he isn't being helpful, but thinks it's more likely that he's the Cobbler, though. Much less suspicious of Sauce than before because of his good self-defense post.

Kath: Votes for mormegil for same reasons as yesterDay.

Sauce: Feels hesitant to start analysing because of the earlier mistakes, lists yesterDay's votes, but says they won't probably tell us much. Makes statistics about voting and says that perhaps we should look at those who have been casting safe votes instead of those who have voted for proven innocents multiple times...

-Well, this reflects the thoughts I had in my post #189, so I agree. It would be a good idea to take a look at people who haven't yet been under suspicion, anyway-

...Trusts Cailín's list of innocents (= Nilp, TGWBS, Glirdan, Kath], still believes that malkatoj's innocent and thinks that Formendacil's innocent, too, although he's aware that he might be bluffing. Ponders a trio of mormegil, spawn and Garin, but is hesitant to go after them now. Of the three, is most unsure of Garin although has no specific reason to suspect him. Thinks that there might be one or two wolves in that group, though.

Has no idea of Gil, says that his vote for Wayne was reasoned, can't say anything definite of Márcolië either. Main suspect at the moment is Naria because she hasn't voted for a known innocent, says that her vote for Formendacil might have been a wolf voting another wolf. Finds Nilp's thoughts interesting, says that the wolves have left the lynching of the innocents for the innocents themselves and are keeping quiet.

-I find Naria a bit unnerving, too, mostly because she won't share her thoughts-

Nilp: Analyses Day 1 and 2's votes pointing out two pairs: Kath & Garin and Glirdan & Formendacil, but says he finds the latter unconvincing, compares people's behaviour to previous games, says that Formendacil might be bluffing. Makes a list of people based on how many votes they have received, thinks there's a wolf among those who haven't had been voted for yet and two baddies in the first two lists. Is suspicious of Garin, Formendacil, Gil, Kath and Glirdan (whom he suspects because he attacked Sauce). Votes for Gil.

Glirdan: Says the Gifteds should remain hidden, is surprised that Sauce isn't dead yet and suspects him because of that. Says Sauce could be alive because he's a wolf or because he has suspected a wolf correctly. Thinks Gil's yesterDay's vote was odd as if he had been eager to get rid of another innocent. Votes for Gil.

Formendacil: Makes theories of his own behaviour, promises that he isn't the Cobbler, wonders how Sauce's attitude has changed and finds it werewolfish.

TGWBS: Is still really suspicious of mormegil for the same reasons as yesterDay. Thinks Márcolië, Naria, Garin, spawn, Formendacil, Sauce and Gil should be watched. Isn't suspicious of Glirdan anymore.



Votes thus far:

Kath -> mormegil
Nilp -> Gil
Glirdan -> Gil

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Boy, I've been doing a lot in class.

I've done the analyses that lead to my vote during French and English Lit class.

Then, I've tried to deduce the Werewolves's killing pattern (and tried to do a Hunter hunt--I've still a handful in my list of probably Hunters) during Microbiology class.

Alphabetical order:

Abercrombie-DAY 1
Aiwendil-NIGHT 2
Cailín-NIGHT 4
DSoU
Form
Garin
Gil
Glirdan
guy
Kath
malka
Márcolië
morm
Naria
Nilp
Sauce
Shelob-DAY 2
Valier-NIGHT 3
Wayne-DAY 4

All the dead people are at either ends of the list. Now, the lynchings (and probably Cailín's death) are coincidental, but the first two NIGHT kills might not be. The Werewolves seem to be going first, then last (they'd probably leave Wayne alive to confuse). Interesting random pattern that leaves no clues whatsoever.

In that case, you might be in trouble, Sauce. Perhaps you, too, spawn.

Okay, that was slightly useless, but I've done all the possible logical analyses that I could do. I'm grasping at straws now.

Garin has indeed broken a tie thrice, but the ties have been between innocents (or himself), so it has been a lose-lose situation from the beginning. (spawn )

That might be so, but I notice that aside from the vote where he had to save himself, he voted for someone that didn't end up getting lynched.

Of course, his vote for Cailín may have led to her lynching, if she had not declared herself.

And, I do not know how this all make sense. I just pointed it out.

Oh, and you, too, fair dancer, you have an interesting track record. Two tie votes in 'favour' of an innocent, and a tie-breaking vote in 'favour' of an innocent, all leading to kills.

I don't know why I pointed that out. My survival and eventual escape from the dungeons of Sauron came from memorising all sorts of information, no matter how useless they seem.

[The Saucepan Man]

Just popping in on a quick break from my legal duties. Two points that I wanted to respond to:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Early toDAY, SPM said of me that he's still willing to accept my excuses, and to give me the benefit of the doubt. In fact, his entire attitude today has been one of tolerance towards my peccadillo-esque behaviour. I find this in opposition to his attitude of yesterday, where he was perhaps one of the less tolerant. In fact, he seems to me to have almost made an about face of opinion: almost as if, now that I've built up enough village-wide suspicion to be lynched, he wants to distance himself from me, so as to be able to claim, once I am lynched, that he had nothing to do with my death. Of course, such a trait would suggest that he is a Werewolf.

I made it very clear yesterday that I was inclined to accept your comment that you would be putting more effort in if you were a Wolf. That remains my position, as I said earlier, because I see little need for risky behaviour on the part of the Wolves at the moment. But I am nevertheless conscious of the fact that you may be bluffing. I do not see how my position on you today is much different from my position yesterday. The fact that you see fit to try and portray me as having changed my opinion of you gives me cause for concern about you.

Originally Posted by mormegil

SpM I like most of your thoughts and they seem to make some sense to me. Where I disagree is how many people you are willing to consider innocent.

I'm not into double-lynching, not the ways things stand at the moment. So, while I am not regarding anyone as definate innocents, I am prepared to exclude people from my current analysis in order to concentrate on trying to find one Wolf today. Once we find one Wolf, it may be easier to spot the others from the voting record. I have seen nothing today that gives me cause to reconsider having Naria as my main suspect although, as I noted above, that comment of Formendacil's concerns me.

I'll be back later.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Poor Cailin, she saved the seer another night, and did her job. It really is too bad that she had to give herself away.

Looking through the voting pattern, it seems like everyone's either too quiet, like me, or voting for known innocents as of now. It is unnerving that Naria has yet to vote for a known innocent.

Reading through the lists, I had never noticed how very little I'd been speaking. I knew it had been too few, but not as little as it is. And even more than this I didn't realise how few alot of us were speaking. Maybe we need to start voting for those being quiet, to see if people are trying to hide behind silence.

Looking at posts compared to those alive.
Well I can't figure out strikethrough, so I'll underline dead people.

The Saucepan Man 32
the guy who be short 25
Cailín 24
Garin 22
mormegil 21
Glirdan 20
malkatoj 14
dancing spawn of ungoliant 13
Nilpaurion Felagund 11
Kath 9
Valier 8
Gil-Galad 7
Aiwendil 6
Formendacil 6
Shelob 6
WaynetheGoblin 5
Naria 5
Márcolië Lamen 4
AbercrombieOfRohan 4

From the bottom in those alive.
Marcolie: me. I had an excuse for the first day, but thats all. I know I'd not be able to convince people of my innocence, so I'm not going to unless necessary, instead spend the same time looking at others.

Naria. Looking at Naria I'm very suspicous because it seems like ther's not reason to. It would be such a strong position,and such an easy position to hide in. She's seemed to not go out of her way to do anything, which seems like something a wolf would have done this game, because its not necessary.

Form To me it still seems like Form's the cobbler. She declares that's the one thing she's not, but is it not a cobbler who would try to confuse? I'd let Form live, at least for now, but not trust anything said...if there's anything we can analyse.

Gil-Galad is a very odd player, and it seems like we can't figure out any of Gil's actions, yet this is normal. I'm not as nervous about Gil as Naria, or even Form because it seems like Gil we can understand, to some degree. This probably isn't a good thing to work off of, but the truth.

Kath I'd be nervous of being a wolf, because i've always known of her intelligence. I'm not going to accuse her for anything when she can't be here to defend herself. Seems too unfair.


Looking through the numbers, I'd expect, one wolf in that list. I don't think that all of them could get away being quiet, because people will be smart and not always be killing off the loud ones. One quiet wolf and two loud ones makes sense to me, but I'm not sure what the third one would be.

I would beleive strongly though that there is one quiet wolf, and one loud one.

If I had to guess wolves now from this I'd guess.
quiet: Naria mainly for lack of voting for a known innocent
loud: Garin mainly for repeated breaking of ties 'causing known innocents deaths.
other: I'm not sure...

It makes sense to me for Naria and Garin to be working together, at opposite ends of the spetrum, and then someone else in between.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Firstly, I am still most suspicious of mormegil. I shall provide reasons later, but they're the same as yesterday; the subtle influencing of the village whilst accusing Cailin of the same, the inadequate responses.

Me subtle? Perish the thought. Show me where I have been subtle. It's not a trait I possess. And as far as my responses to your queries go, I thought I'd addressed this multiple times, but it appears as you are being intentionally obtuse and don't want to understand, which is odd because I believe you innocent and this seems wolfish behavior to me. Let me clarify that I do not think you a wolf but I don't understand your seemingly intentional desire to misunderstand everything I say.

Sadly most of my day will be spent interviewing potential apprentice-smiths (AKA I'm conducting job interviews all day) so I may not be able to make it back to vote, let alone catch up on the reading. While I am understanding of the suspicion on Naria I think I will stick to my guns with Formendacil for a couple of reasons. His answer is not satisfactory, in my mind and we need to spread the voting out between 4 or so candidates. Gil is tempting as well for multiple reasons, not least of which is his unhelpfulness but nay I will not vote him yet as he's likely innocent.

Therefore:

++Formendacil

[Márcolië Lamen]

votes thus far
Kath -> mormegil
Nilp -> Gil
Glirdan -> Gil
morm->Form

we probably want to vote for one more person, and then see if we can between 4 people get a wolf to finally come out of voting. I'd say we should vote for Naria but I'm not ready to cast a vote yet. Though I'm debating to so that I we would have four people voted for, already, its not worth it.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

As promised, I did some research of the quieter ones, and came up with analysis of Naria and malkatoj (although the latter has been pretty vocal).


Day 1:

Naria weeps the loss of Meneltarmacil and says that the Day 1 is rather random, and that's about all we get out of her. She promises to make a post later with a vote, though. Indeed, at the end of the Day we get 21 words forming an apology for lateness and a vote for Nilp (and it's a reasoned vote, too: "Too crazzzy!!").

Day 2:

*silence*

Day 3:

Naria says she had a perfectly good excuse for not posting. Fair enough. She also says that she was fairly quiet in her last game, three posts a day at tops (I'm not sure why she's telling this... does it mean that once you are a silent villager, you'll always be a silent villager?)

"I will not analyse anyone for there is enough people doing a good enough job already." ~Naria

Apparently it wasn't good enough since we haven't caught a wolf yet. In any case, that's a really weird thing to say. Did she know that we were way off of the real culprits and she thought she'd sit back watching us 'barking up the wrong tree' as we were already doing it so well? Why does she refuse to share her thoughts?

"I will however post a personal thought about each player later on." ~Naria

I'm still waiting for that post to come.

Naria thinks the idea of a double lynching sounds wolvish. She says that if a double lynching happens, then it happens but it shouldn't be planned. I disagree with this. I think accidental double lynchings don't really serve the purpose. A wolf can hide behind an "accident" and if we decrease our numbers twice the amount as usually in one Day, it should be discussed together.

Naria explains why she's quiet. She says she trusts her gut feelings since she's not good at reading between the lines. Her post #206, doesn't look that suspicious to me although I'm not sure when she said that "I do think that he [Formendacil] is acting Cobblerish and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this."

She has just said that she wants to keep her own mind about voting, but the she wishes to get some support. I don't know... All in all Naria seems quite suspicious to me now and I'd really like her to post more her thoughts even if they are gut feelings.

***

Day 1:

Malkatoj is eager to get rid of Wayne and Gil.

"I think our best bet today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence." ~malkatoj

The next thing she says is that she's almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, though. Later she votes for Wayne for the reasons she explained earlier.

Day 2:

"I'm also inclined to think, like Wayne and Gil, it's just Garin being Garin--in the last game he acted in this manner as well." ~malkatoj

She suggests the good old 'wolves are in the bandwagon' theory although points out Shelob's safe vote (why only Shelob?). She says she meant Kath with her vote for Aiwendil and although some people would seem to think her as innocent after this, I'm not so sure.

Day 3:

Malkatoj is irritated because Wayne is still alive (although she has said all the time that he's probably innocent). She says that Sauce started both Shelob and Abercrombie bandwagons.

"Even if you don't vote for him [Sauce], don't vote with him--innocent or no, it's dangerous to let one person have so much power over us." ~malkatoj

Wow. That's quite a statement: Do not listen to The Saucepan Man. Nice piece of propaganda there. Malkatoj wants both Sauce and Wayne dead, but is uncertain, what to do. Asks a public opinion of double lynching and says she'd like to have it.

She votes for Sauce "for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row".



Now, both ladies are looking rather suspicious to me and so do their votes. It's probably a safest vote ever to cast it for someone who already has votes, but who's not going to get lynched that Day.

On Day 1, malkatoj voted for Wayne giving him a third vote when Valier already had three and Abercrombie had 5. Naria, for one, gave Nilp a third vote just at the end of the Day.

I think I will probably vote for either of them toDay.

[Garin]

I'm glad to see the Downs is no longer a porn link. I have previously fretted about posting at work and yesterday I thought I was doomed when it appeared the subject matter had changed from middle earth to doggy-style.
Back into character: I regret not posting last night, I truly appreciate all that have looked at the silent ones, I also agree that one of them should die. It is, however, interesting that Márcolië Lamen has attempted to recover from her silence and finally started to participate. Her points about Naria, sort of make sense but It really could apply to all of the silent ones. It is obviously an attempt to save herself. It is my initial desire to dismiss what she says since she has missed a vote or two.
However, I thought I would vote for Gil following yesterday's debacle. I don't know.. points about Malkatoj make sense.
I wasn't able to get to our village last night and now I am preoccupied with truffle hunting, it is much like digging for gold... very random, and tiresome. My posts will be few but I will vote and put myself on the record unlike others.

[Garin]

Poor Cailin, she saved the seer another night, and did her job. It really is too bad that she had to give herself away

This comment seems makes me way suspicious and seems a bit egregious, almost like begging to be thought innocent.

[Garin]

In fact, I found the post to be wolvish enough and I have too much work to do that I will vote now:
++Márcolië Lamen

[The Saucepan Man]

Professional obligations discharged, I am back.

Reviewing today's discussions, I thought that I ought to answer this because it is an interesting point:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I'm very surprised that [SpM]'s not been lynched yet. This could mean a one of two things. One, he's a Wolf. Two, he's been suspicious of a Wolf and it's to dangerous to attack him because it will lead to many clues.

I can see other plausible reasons why I have not been mauled by the Wolves yet. Night 2, they selected Aiwendil. We discussed the possible reasons for this on Day 2, but I think that it was a logical choice. His death left scant trail and he has a formidable intellect and an aptitude for analysis. Perhaps, were he still here, we would have made better choices. I still think that their choice of Valier on Night 3 was strange. But I can see why they did not go for me. After my votes on the previous days, they (correctly) assumed that I would be under suspicion and a potential lynch victim. Their choice on Night 4 was an obvious one. Moreover, be leaving me alone, they ensure that the very fact of my continued presence arouses suspicion, particularly given my voting record. After all, you have stated that this is one of your reasons for suspecting me, Glirdan.

... we probably want to vote for one more person, and then see if we can between 4 people get a wolf to finally come out of voting.

I agree with this. It remains sensible to keep the voting options wide, as it may force the Wolves' hand. For that reason (and also because there is a chance that I might not get back later), I shall vote now. And I shall vote for:

++NARIA

Basically for the reasons that I stated earlier. Nothing that I have seen so far alters my view on her. She has been laying low and placing "safe" votes, a sensible tactic for a Wolf in light of the way the voting has gone so far. Also, a few of the things said today (particularly by spawn) have reinforced my suspicions. Her lack of presence today might be viewed as overly risky behaviour for a Wolf, but (if she is a Wolf) it seems to have worked for her so far.

Of course, now that I have voted for her, she will probably turn out to be innocent - given my track record so far.

Edit: Cross-posted with Garin.

[Naria]

I'm here!! Luck just isn't on my side. I was on earlier and was doing up my post when the power went out. We had a wicked snow storm earlier this morning and it knocked some lines down.

I really do hope that nothing else happens. I would like to participate more.

Well here's my gut feelings:

Morm--unsure of right now

Garin-- not too many thoughts right now just that he seems to be quite agreeable this game, maybe a new way of playing?

Nilp--starting to make sense. kinda

Spawn--unsure of right now

SPM--hard to read, just like his posts. Can't put my finger on

Malka--haven't put too much thought into her yet, which is probably not a good thing

Gil--has made me uneasy since the quick vote after Wayne

Glirdan--confused about, something isn't sitting right

Marcolie--unsure of right now

Form--have stated my thoughts of him

Kath--same as Malka

TGWBS--leary of

[Garin]

Real quick, re: Mormegil, I like him but don't trust him, as much as it pains me. (I had a little time to read his posts, and had an uncomfortable feeling.)
I have, however, already, posted a vote.
I still think Marc is simply reacting to a call for the deaths to the silent and trying to avoid a lynch.
I have voted and feel secure in my vote.

[the guy who be short]

First off, I will probably be voting mormegil. But first, I want to deliver the promised analyses and see if anything sways my mind. Indeed, Naria's silence, along with many others, has not left the back of mind for some time. Nor has Gil's vote for wayne. But a personal analysis is always the best analysis, and I want to find out exactly why these people are being killed today.

All this is coming. Firstly, I wish to post my suspicions of mormegil and lay them open to the entire village.



This post constitutes my first attack on morm. Here follow the main points:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Good reasoning. And here we seen morm's knee-jerk reaction, without even the pretence of an explanation.

Originally Posted by morm

Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage

I have repeatedly mentioned the fact that he gave no real reasons for suspecting her. He either says "Something isn't sitting right" or "I don't have time to explain" or some such thing, and when asked plainly, refuses to answer. So, morm: Why did you vote Cailin?

I pointed out that Cailin's comment that allegedly influenced the lynching of Shelob...

Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish.

...is something that all villagers say, with variations, all the time. To single this out and base an entire attack on this seem illogical.

Originally Posted by morm

What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little.

Cailin did not explicitly state so. Morm implies that Cailin stated it. Furthermore, he seems unable to appreciate that Cailin posted a synopsis of what I had said - she did not present my analyses, but their conclusions. One sees quality thinking from me here, for example. Though other posts do not offer detailed analysis, they ask sensible questions.

He votes for Cailin when she has said explicitly that she will not be able to return, and so cannot form a defence.

Originally Posted by morm

Regarding Cailin I think I've put my finger on it. She's come forward with some decent ideas and seems to slowly be pulling here and pushing there. Slowly and quietly she is trying to influence us. Not as overtly as many think SpM is but more dangerously. She hasn't really committed herself to any one thing but seems to want to influence us and sow the seeds of confusion.

Proof? Analysis? Anything? Just general feelings. The entire point of being an innocent, by the way, is to influence discussion.

Originally Posted by morm

I think I shall stick with Cailin today. My observation earlier has solidified in my mind and I can see now her wolfish influence taking root in our councils.

Observation? A bit of a scientific word to use, considering the evidence you present.

My suspicions of Cailin I have posted and stand behind them. She's had a fairly innocuous track record on voting and what she says is moderately insightful but noncommittal.

Suspicions not backed by quotation or any evidence. And it seems a little extreme voting for somebody simply because they balancedly analyse everything everybody says.

Me subtle? Perish the thought. Show me where I have been subtle. It's not a trait I possess. And as far as my responses to your queries go, I thought I'd addressed this multiple times, but it appears as you are being intentionally obtuse and don't want to understand, which is odd because I believe you innocent and this seems wolfish behavior to me. Let me clarify that I do not think you a wolf but I don't understand your seemingly intentional desire to misunderstand everything I say.

Perhaps subtle was not the best word to use. You simply influenced the village, whether they realised it or not, because you're loud and generally trusted to analyse soundly. Yet look at the unanswered questions above; clearly you have not addressed them several times as I keep pursuing the subject.

In conclusion, I quote myself:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

And that is what your entire argument against Cailin comes down to! Through the last two days, all you can state is a bad feeling, and dress it up with minor attacks that could be applied to anybody!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Garin

I regret not posting last night, I truly appreciate all that have looked at the silent ones, I also agree that one of them should die. It is, however, interesting that Márcolië Lamen has attempted to recover from her silence and finally started to participate. Her points about Naria, sort of make sense but It really could apply to all of the silent ones. It is obviously an attempt to save herself. It is my initial desire to dismiss what she says since she has missed a vote or two.

Well, I was about to point out this suggestion by Márcolië: "Maybe we need to start voting for those being quiet, to see if people are trying to hide behind silence", but rather as a joke than a real accusation. It does seem quite convenient for Márcolië to start posting more and being helpful just when she says that we should go after the silent ones, but to me it doesn't appear quite as obviously wolvish as to you. After all, I would have expected her to talk more from the beginning. If she was quiet at first because she was adjusting herself to her new furrier life, that I don't know. However, I believe her when she said that she was caught up in business involving a flying spaghetti monster (or broken computer, whichever you please).

Originally Posted by Márcolië

If I had to guess wolves now from this I'd guess.
quiet: Naria mainly for lack of voting for a known innocent
loud: Garin mainly for repeated breaking of ties 'causing known innocents deaths.

Márcolië, your accusation of Garin isn't very logical:

Originally Posted by Nilp :)

That might be so, but I notice that aside from the vote where he had to save himself, he voted for someone that didn't end up getting lynched.

Originally Posted by Garin

This comment seems makes me way suspicious and seems a bit egregious, almost like begging to be thought innocent.

I've never trusted those who lament the dead too much, but aren't you overreacting a bit? Funny you go after Márcolië just after she has named you as one of her main suspects. Might be a coincidence, though, I don't know. Now that I've said that, it's of course obvious that Márcolië is a wolf and Naria and malkatoj are as pure and innocent as the wind driven snow...

Anyway, if we are trying to rid ourselves of the silent ones, why to kill someone who has just started talking?

[mormegil]

TGWBS, I don't know what to say to you other than that which I have already said. You do seem to be taking out of context a couple of things. I did not begin to attack Cailin on the first day I did mention that something wasn't sitting right with me. The second day I noted why and stated it to everyone and commenced my attack. My suspicion continued because of her general behavior. Since we are talking about so many past games anyway I will. I might mention that I found Holby to be a wolf in one game based exactly on that logic. I felt something was wrong and found some points where I thought she was. Cailin's behavior was similar to hers I was obviously wrong this time but it has worked for me in the past.

About the comment that I didn't have time to explain, that's simply because I didn't and I haven't had a great amount of time to look up quotes and do an extremely detailed analysis, but at least I am trying to contribute. My RL job is keeping me later and I've been extremely busy and usually can only post during lunch now.

It is note worthy that others thought along the same lines as I and yet for some reason you mention them not.

[Naria]

I am being called away from my computer again this aft so I need to cast my vote earlier than I had expected.

++Formendacil

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Garin

I'm glad to see the Downs is no longer a porn link. I have previously fretted about posting at work and yesterday I thought I was doomed when it appeared the subject matter had changed from middle earth to doggy-style.

Aye! What was up with that?

Anyway, it's resolved, so on to the serious matters at hand, in which I shall probably and purposefully irritate some the great minds of the 'Downs.

Originally Posted by Marcolie

Form To me it still seems like Form's the cobbler. She declares that's the one thing she's not, but is it not a cobbler who would try to confuse? I'd let Form live, at least for now, but not trust anything said...if there's anything we can analyse.

I guess I should start signing my posts with my real name again... Don't want to turn into a she by accident.

Yes, don't trust anything I say. But really, don't trust anything that ANYBODY says. No seer has come forward to reveal us any known innocents, so NOBODY is in the clear, meaning that EVERYBODY is suspect, and their words should be taken with great caution, and their statements should only be believed when verifiable.

Trust no one!

On other matters, I'm disappointed by Morm's vote for me, but hardly surprised at all. Certainly, I'm not insulted. After all, since I'm no good at reading the fine print on pages of Werewolf, I am a very poor in-depth analysier of posts, hence I tend to base my playing on what FEELS right, and on what I've experienced of other players in the past. And, since I'm playing quite differently than Morm is normally used to, I would be a hypocrite indeed if I didn't find him justified in voting for me.

Still disappointed though...

And, speaking of Morm, I find today's higher levels of Morm suspicion to be most interesting. I'm going to toss in my thoughts on the matter...

Quite frankly, Morm SEEMS normal to me on face value. However, there are definitely differences in his normal mode of playing, differences that I find significant.

First of all, Morm is not as verbose as normal. This isn't necessarily incriminating, but it is interesting. Perhaps he's busier than he used to be. I know I am. Perhaps, however, he's a Werewolf trying for a lower profile than he usually has.

Secondly, I'm waiting for him to come up with some big, everybody-analyse-the-next-person-on-the-list sort of thing, or maybe him to put forward a list of generally known innocents, and try to orchestrate a fixed lynch. Maybe he's learning from experience, or maybe he's taken my past berations to heart, or maybe he doesn't have time... or maybe he's a Werewolf... but this seems very un-Mormish to me.

Well, that's enough for now. I'll be back later to vote.

Or not.

[the guy who be short]

Both Naria and Marco have only posted six times, at the moment of writing. Both have been silent and sweeping under the radar, so to speak.

Naria

Post 1 - says little.

Post 2 - Votes for Nilp as he is crazy.

Fair enough under normal circumstances, but what was the point? A vote for Valier or Wayne - with 3 each - would have had more chance of determining the outcome than a throwaway vote for Nilp. Or even a vote for Abercrombie, if you suspected her. Three perfectly good options, but instead she throws her vote away.

Post 3 - As has already been said, she says she will post a comment of each villager later but then fails to do so. She also claims others are doing a good enough job of analysis - a very dangerous view, because all other analyses are potentially undertaken by wolves. She claims she has been quiet due to computer problems.

Post 4 - Says she doesn't like double lynchings. Seems logical enough, no need to do the wolves work for them unless we are pretty certain of our candidates.

Post 5 - Again, asks for forgiveness on the basis of computer problems. She also claims she goes through all posts to see what people are saying, and claims she is not good at reading between the lines. Again, this shows a dangerous willingness to accept other people's words at face value.

She then says she will make her own decisions - but using her gut instead of her head. Why anybody would prefer the use of an organ usually destined to processing ones meals over one's brain is beyond me.

She votes Form. A reasonably safe vote, but one with the potential to not be.

Last post - Says there was a storm. Posts her views on everybody, then leaves.


In conclusion, her silence seems to have been accounted for a lot better than others. However, it is the useless votes that incriminate. Her unwillingness to form her own ideas is also very worrying. So I agree, one to watch.



Marcolie

Day 1 - nothing

Post 1 - Says computer was broken. Vaguely believes in wayne, Gil, Valier and Glirdan's guilt.

Post 2 - Suspects Cailin for this ridiculous notion of "thought steering."
Suspects SpM because of "strength at playing." Eh?!
Thinks Glirdan is innocent.
Advocates voting for Gil, wayne, Valier or Naria based on their quietness. Er... a little rich.
Says she suspects Garin, similarly to morm "don't know exactly why."

Post 3 - Says she had the opportunity to vote, but can see no reason why she didn't. Doesn't try to defend himself on this. Seems a bit odd.

Posr 4 - Votes for wayne, with little choice, obviously. Says there's a possibility that Cailin is a wolf hiding behind Rangerism.

Post 5 - Says it's unnerving that Naria has yet to vote for an innocent. And for once, I agree.
Says she didn't realise how quiet she was but again advocates lynching the quiet. This seems very fishy. So... should we lynch you, Marco?
Says she thinks Form is the cobbler. I agree.
Doesn't suspect gil for being himself.

Post 6 - Says she will probably vote for Naria.


I'm afraid I don't have time for Gil just at the moment. After doing him, I'd like to take a look at Malka, Garin, SpM and Nilp, in that order. I fear SpM will be rather hefty though, and will not be able to manage it today.

Out of Naria and Marco, both seem suspicious. Naria's willingness to let others think for her, and her meaningless vote on day one, count against her. Marco's urgency to kill quiet people whilst ignoring herself is worrying. Neither goes out of their way to justify votes.

[Garin]

Anyway, if we are trying to rid ourselves of the silent ones, why to kill someone who has just started talking?

A certain atmosphere of desperation seems to ring in Marc's post.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I have to vote now. Hmph.

The votes thus far are:

Kath -> mormegil
Nilp -> Gil
Glirdan -> Gil
mormegil -> Formendacil
Garin -> Márcolië
Sauce -> Naria
Naria -> Formendacil

Score: Formendacil-2, Gil-2, Márcolië-1, mormegil-1, Naria-1


If morm is a wolf, why didn't he put Gil clearly on the lead to save himself? Or maybe he has his comrades waiting if he needs to be saved because it could have looked overly defensive to vote for Gil in his position.

What should I do then? Make a tie, perhaps, for tradition's sake?
TGWBS presents a sound case, but I feel hesitant to vote for morm because I haven't analysed his posts myself yet. Although maybe that's just why I should vote for him, really.

Ah, well.

++malkatoj

May we have some luck at last.


edit: Cross-posted with TGWBS and Garin, if someone's interested to know.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by morm

TGWBS, I don't know what to say to you other than that which I have already said. You do seem to be taking out of context a couple of things. I did not begin to attack Cailin on the first day I did mention that something wasn't sitting right with me. The second day I noted why and stated it to everyone and commenced my attack. My suspicion continued because of her general behavior.

Yet you don't take into account that your entire suspicion - that she was "influencing us" - was based on comments that everybody makes all the time, and that the point of being innocent IS to influence others and get them to believe you! Can you adress these points?

About the comment that I didn't have time to explain, that's simply because I didn't

And you have as yet failed to explain other than your "feelings." I don't like people who vote with their guts - Naria and Formen, be warned.

It is note worthy that others thought along the same lines as I and yet for some reason you mention them not.

You were the first to cast suspicion on Cailin. After this, people started paying attention to her, because you had focussed the spotlight on her.

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm sorry, but I have to say this. To date, I have trusted you and seen the sense in much of what you have been saying, TGWBS. I saw the sense in your case against mormegil yesterday, even though I did not agree with it. It was clearly and logically stated. Yet your case against morm today seems to have transformed into something of a single-minded persecution of him, and it unnerves me.

I felt much the same way as mormegil yesterday about Cailin. That is why I voted for her, although I am not sure that I expressed my reasons with any more precision than morm did. I reached that view entirely independently, before I had seen what mormegil had to say about her (on Day 3 at least). Admittedly, his opinion on her seemed to validate my own, but we all draw comfort from the fact that others are thinking along the same lines as we are, do we not?

I am not saying that morm is innocent. But I do have the sense that he, like me, is one who has been trying his best to find a Wolf but making wrong choices at every turn. And that he has had less time than he is accustomed to to do so.

I appreciate that, if morm is lynched and turns out to be a Wolf, these words may well condemn me. But I am prepared to take that risk, for I have a feeling that he is innocent.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Guess who

Yet you don't take into account that your entire suspicion - that she was "influencing us" - was based on comments that everybody makes all the time, and that the point of being innocent IS to influence others and get them to believe you! Can you adress these points?

I thought I had stated that her behavior and I used the best logic I had at the time I'm sorry if didn't have sufficient evidence for you but I am doing my best and horrible at that. You continue to ask the same questions of me and I think I answer them sufficiently. So from this point forward I no longer will address your questions unless you give me something new.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by SpM

Yet your case against morm today seems to have transformed into something of a single-minded persecution of him, and it unnerves me.

Apologies if it unnerves you, but I am certain that we have a wolf here. And whilst it is very definitely a persecution, I won't deny that, it is not singleminded. I wanted to vote for morm at the offset, but instead decided to analyse Naria, Marco and Gil before casting a vote. I have finished with the first two and in both cases found reason for suspicion. Gil I shall do as soon as I finish this reply. Indeed, a review was entirely necessary, considering that my secondary suspect beforehand had been Glirdan, and by the end of tomorrow, if I live, I intend to have covered as much of the village as possible.

That said, while I do suspect Naria, Marco and Formen, the focus of my day remains morm.

I felt much the same way as mormegil yesterday about Cailin. That is why I voted for her, although I am not sure that I expressed my reasons with any more precision than morm did. I reached that view entirely independently, before I had seen what mormegil had to say about her

A brave thing to admit to. I will confess, I saw your post claiming that you had reached your own conclusions about Cailin a few days ago, but dismissed it. I presumed that mormegil had influenced you, even if you yourself had not noticed this.

As to how that affects my beliefs... well, put simply, I saw no reason to suspect Cailin, and it surprises me that you, SpM, did. I don't think you are a wolf - much the opposite infact - but that seems odd. Perhaps I simply missed something with regards to her. But I still think morm is guilty.

I have a feeling that he is innocent.

How strong is that feeling?