Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[mormegil]

My head is currently spinning and I don't know which way to go. Do I vote for SpM or the phantom?
Kuruharan has made some good points about SpM but I've felt his guilt and found some evidence against the phantom.

SpM seems more willing to die and agrees with my general philosophy that this a team game and innocents should be willing to die if it will help the cause.

Kuru and The Phantom seem to be doing a lot of agreeing. Is the phantom seeing an innocent to side with?

Kuru accused SpM of flying under the radar and then being vocal after he was accused. I noticed the same thing with Kuru the first day so I'm not sure that arouses my suspicion.

But many good points were made by Kuru and set forth well.

What to do?

Edit: All I know for certain is that we had better bag a werewolf today or we are just about all dead.

[Kuruharan]

What to do?

Trust me. Forget the phantom. You can always hang him later. This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me. Just pick who you think is more trustworthy.

EDIT: Of course, you want to pick the Saucepan Man if you really want to bag a werewolf, since I'm not one.

[Shelob]

"Is this a "yes?" This almost reads to me like a "yes."" ~Kuru

My response to that is that I'm apparently not the only one who can miss giant 'This is a Joke' signs...though if your mind is in the same state as mine I can't say I blame you...

alright...if I come back on tonight yell at me...Remind me that my grade depends on the paper and not on werewolf...

Upon the morrow my friends, upon the morrow.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Forget the phantom. You can always hang him later.

Can I? I'm not known for my convincing arguement and having a large following such as you, tp , spm and other. I have been trying for two days to get him lynched now I see I may have to opportunity. Will I be throwing that away? I feel like I've worked hard and fought well for that, now just to give up when it's almost in my grasp would be a bit silly.

[Kuruharan]

My response to that is that I'm apparently not the only one who can miss giant 'This is a Joke' signs

My response to that is that I know from personal experience in this type of game is that people often give away much more than they intend to with what they say.

There is a very simple way for you to solve your problem (and allay my suspicions of you at the same time). Just vote for Saucepan.

I'm not known for my convincing arguement and having a large following such as you, tp , spm and other

I have a following?! It's news to me. Look, like I said earlier, I don't know that the phantom isn't a werewolf. But we should only try to hang one at a time.
As I have been repeatedly asking, is there anyone here who does not have serious suspicions of Saucepan? The best way for you to build credibility is for you to vote for a wolf. Suddenly, when that happens, you've got some "capital" that politicians and political scientists are always nattering on about. You've said it yourself, I've built a convincing case. Don't you think it might be a good idea to get some capital to spend the next DAY. I promise you that I will read what you have to say about the phantom very carefully. You can even do what I did and take three hours and more if you like. I'll wait to see what you have to say before I do anything. In fact, I'll even let you have first crack at it before I attempt to develop any new theories.

(This is assuming of course I live through the NIGHT.)

[mormegil]

Well it is now time for me to vote and I am going to take Kuru's advice of getting some capital for myself. But not in the way Kuru wants. I have reread your arguement against SpM and I think that it is very good but I was able to see things in it that didn't add all they way up (such as taking things out of context and manipulating what he said). I know this may come across that I am defending him but I am not. I just simply cannot feel right about voting for him while the phantom is still out there killing innocents.

According to my calculations we have a better chance of getting phantom lynched today than we do SpM. I have stated that I think the phantom is guilty since early on and wouldn't be faithful if I didn't use this opportunity. I have a couple others I'm looking at next round, of which SpM is one and rather high on my list. I wanted to wait till later but I won't have time after right now to vote so I must vote for:

++THE PHANTOM

And hope that a sufficient amount of people follow Azaelia and myself on this. If he, beyond my thought, is found innocent then I fully expect to be a prime suspect but I am willing to take that risk.

[The Saucepan Man]

Goodness me! What a lot of energy is being directed by a certain two villagers in trying to persuade the village to lynch me. The phantom’s efforts are understandable, given that it is pretty clearly either him or me today. Although I have misgivings about any innocent villager who is prepared to spend quite so much time trying to save their own skin. Kuruharan, I suppose, is sticking to the opinion which he formed at the beginning of the day. But he does seem very unwilling to listen to anyone else’s opinion, while making a lot of noise himself.

The closed minds that these two are displaying makes me very uneasy. Then again, if I am lynched, you will see that I am innocent. That makes it very risky for a Werewolf to direct quite so much energy towards attacking me. I am now almost certain that one of them is innocent but misguided and the other is a Werewolf setting himself up as a DAY 4 sacrifice. It is highly doubtful that two Werewolves would do that. Only problem is, I have little idea which one of them is the innocent one and which is the guilty one.

To the extent that Kuru’s long post against me relies on my having been instrumental in the lynching of two innocents, I cannot deny it. I have acknowledged that fact myself on a number of occasions. Other than that, it is purely quotes taken out of context (as mormegil notes) and conjecture.

There are, however, a few points which I must address.

Kuru, when I said that you “flew under the radar” on DAY 1, I meant that you said practically nothing controversial until the discussion began to identify a single candidate for lynching (Evisse – by Shelob’s vote and my conjecture). You then concentrated your efforts on that candidate. That was the impression that I gained, in any event.

I never stopped suspecting you on DAY 2 although, as I said, I did begin to doubt my own thought processes after the outcome of DAY 1. I have given my reasons for accusing SoN. However, if I did not make it sufficiently clear, one of them was that you (one of my suspects) had seemed to draw my attention away from him on DAY 1. Since he proved innocent, that is clearly no longer a valid reason for suspecting you.

You point out that it is a valid strategy for a Werewolf to sacrifice him- or herself in order to get an innocent lynched. I agree. Indeed, it seems to be what either you or the phantom are doing today. But it is not a role that I would wish to take on, were I a Werewolf. Not at the outset anyway. Then again, you only have my word for that.

You seem to think that my previous two posts were nudging the village towards voting for the phantom. Well, given the current state of affairs, any attempt to defend myself is impliedly a nudge in the phantom’s direction since it is ether him or me today. Believe me, if I was more certain of his guilt, I would be more than happy to lay out my evidence for all to see and attempt to guarantee that he gets lynched. But I have no such certainty. All I really have to go on is the incredible energy that he has put into defending himself today. But I am by no means certain that this marks him out as a Werewolf.

If that means that I get lynched while he goes free, then I will at least content myself that the village will learn something from my death. Of course, the same goes for the phantom, if he is innocent. On that basis, and given that no one else seems to be anywhere near the frame today, I will probably end up having to vote for the phantom today. But I am by no means certain of his guilt.

The only thing that I can say with any degree of certainty based on today’s events is that it seems fairly likely to me that either the phantom or Kuruharan is a Werewolf.

Finally, I am not at all sure what to make of these comments by Kuruharan:

If it is "yes" then the translation of that post is that The Saucepan Man is not online right now or Shelob hasn't yet been able to clear her turning on him with him yet.

I have no idea what he meant by that but, whatever he did mean, it seems to be reading far too much into what was clearly a flippant comment.

This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me.

A curious comment. I am not aware that anyone has given any indication of voting for Kuru today, so why would he say that? If he is staking his innocence on my guilt, it is a very risky tactic for a Werewolf, given that my innocence may very well soon be proved.

As I said, I really don't know what to make of these comments, but they stood out to me.

I doubt that I shall post again before I vote as I have work to be getting on with. But, given the situation, I shall almost certainly be voting for the phantom. I will not vote now, as I would like to avoid any possibility of both he and I being lynched. If it looks like that could happen, I shall either not vote, or vote for someone else. I would rather that I die alone than have two innocents die today (and I have no certainty that the phantom is guilty).

[Holbytlass]

I am willing to give Phantom the benefit of the doubt based on what has been put forward. And given the strikes against SaucepanMan. And given the idea that Kuru and I had (of 2 main suspects). I vote ++Saucepan Man .

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

(Although on the other hand, Fordim does seem to spend an awful lot of time justifying hanging people he thinks might be innocent.

Well I'm sorry Kuru if it seems that way to you, but I guess I just lack your utter certainty about, and total faith in the validity of my conclusions. I don't think I can make it much clearer that I'm as certain of The Phantom's guilt as I can be under the circumstances. But only the wolves can know for certain whether I am right or wrong. Your own total certainty reveals you to be either a wolf or an incautious innocent (one would think that after you voted to lynch Evisse you would have realised that perhaps a conclusion might be wrong...I am just willing to acknowledge that I might be wrong before I cast my vote, rather than stand around afterward, red in the face with embarassment, mumbling about how sure I was that I was correct.)

At any event:

++ THE PHANTOM

[Oddwen]

It appears to be down to the phantom and SpM - first it's one or the other is lupine, or both, or neither. I sincerely believe that SpM (in this instance) has been and is the more dangerous of the two.
Yes, he's gone up on my suspicions list.

++SAUCEPAN MAN

[Kuruharan]

Well I'm sorry Kuru if it seems that way to you, but I guess I just lack your utter certainty about, and total faith in the validity of my conclusions.

-and-

Your own total certainty reveals you to be either a wolf or an incautious innocent
-Fordim

You misunderstand me. It is not at all that I am not aware that I might be wrong. (I obviously think that is unlikely...) However, such public displays of doubt serve little purpose and are a waste of time in my opinion. And what good does being a cautious innocent serve?

rather than stand around afterward, red in the face with embarassment, mumbling about how sure I was that I was correct
-Fordim

If that is going to happen it is going to happen. Mumbling about in red-faced embarassment beforehand is going to do little toward getting to that point.

Then again, if I am lynched, you will see that I am innocent.

Now I see you are trying to copy my method...

Other than that, it is purely quotes taken out of context (as mormegil notes) and conjecture.
-The Saucepan Man

Oh really? In what way were the quotes you made regarding Evisse taken out of context? I imagine you were not particularly happy to have the context of some of them be before I'd ever mentioned Evisse. In what way was your instant blaming of me and your playing up of my role in Evisse's death taken out of context? In what way did I take your 180 and your sudden desire to lynch Son of Numenor out of context?

I meant that you said practically nothing controversial until the discussion began to identify a single candidate for lynching (Evisse – by Shelob’s vote and my conjecture). You then concentrated your efforts on that candidate.

Well, you at least have things in the correct order here in that you were first on that road. Probably decided to do this since I'd called you on it so many times. However, I thought that identifying candidates was what we were here to do. Evisse acted a little strange in her replies to me and that was mainly what I spent my time responding to. You were the one in the background egging us on, pointing out some of the strange factors in her posts.

Finally, I am not at all sure what to make of these comments by Kuruharan:

Quote:
If it is "yes" then the translation of that post is that The Saucepan Man is not online right now or Shelob hasn't yet been able to clear her turning on him with him yet.

I have no idea what he meant by that but, whatever he did mean, it seems to be reading far too much into what was clearly a flippant comment.

You think that was strange, try this one. I think that you told your cronies to not vote against you because you think you can still save yourself. Now, I don't disagree with that reasoning so much because it is possible. However, I think that is going on here.

This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me.

A curious comment. I am not aware that anyone has given any indication of voting for Kuru today, so why would he say that?

Talk about taking things out of context. I think I deserve to be quoted in full.

Trust me. Forget the phantom. You can always hang him later. This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me. Just pick who you think is more trustworthy.

While I have no particular objection to being hung, the meaning of that post was if you thing Saucepan is more trustworthy vote for the phantom. If you think I am more trustworthy, vote for Saucepan. It was not an encouragement to vote for me, although I don't have a problem with that. My later comment was more of a joke, although I can see why it would cause confusion.

In spite of that, Saucepan why don't you go ahead and vote for me anyway.

[The Saucepan Man]

I see that you have been taking lessons from the phantom in style of argument, Kuru. Or perhaps it's vice versa.

My are you going to look foolish if I get lynched.

[The Only Real Estel]

As I said earlier I am willing to let the phantom live until tommorrow.
++The Saucepan Man

I think that makes the voting:

SpM- 5

phantom- 4

...with Saucey probably going to vote for phantom & Shelob probably going to vote for Saucey.

edit: it has been said that lynching phantom will clear everyone's minds, but I think that if SpM gets lynched it will clear things up as much or more for me...even if he does somehow turn out to be not guilty

[Kuruharan]

My are you going to look foolish if I get lynched.

And you are copying my style. Almost word for word, if I may say.

If I'm wrong, then yes I will look quite foolish. However, I don't have a problem with this either. At least I'll have done something that I know is independent and I've not been dragged about like a fish on a line. However, if that is the case you are also going to look very foolish for having come down so hard on me on DAY TWO, because as will be seen in the end, I am innocent.

No doubt we will all have a good laugh about this when we are finished.

However, as of this moment, I don't think I will look foolish.

EDIT:
Estel-I wouldn't count the Shelob vote before it is actually cast. There is no real knowing how she's going to go.

(It depends on what her marching orders are. )

EDIT TO THE EDIT:
I believe the phantom has 3 votes against him. Zali, Fordim, and mormegil.

[Firefoot]

TORE - phantom actually has 3 votes - Azaelia, Fordim, and mormegil.

And I am going to place my vote for ++PHANTOM. I have read the posts since I went to bed last night and do not find my mind changed much in that I still find phantom more suspicious than SpM. I don't really have time to respond in more length, but I doubt anyone really expected me to vote otherwise anyway.

I will say that I am intrigued by Kuru's very vocal defense of phantom. He seems more willing to be lynched himself than allow phantom to be lynched. I will reserve thoughts on this until later, when I have more time to really analyse the arguments.

So that makes the vote:
phantom - 4
SpM - 5

[Kuruharan]

Oh yes, then there is the other werewolf Firefoot who will vote for the phantom.

I was forgetting about her (even though I probably have less excuse for that than others).

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Hmmmm...

Saucy will vote for the phantom making it 5 to 4...

So it will be up to Firefoot and Shelob to decide this one...

I think that no matter what happens today we are going to learn a lot of interesting things about all of the abovementioned people.

Edit: cross-posted with Firefoot; so as soon as Saucy casts his vote, it will leave Shelob in the driver's seat -- now, if she casts her vote elsewhere, we could have a tie and be rid of the both of them right away: of course, woe betide us if they are both innocent!!

[The Only Real Estel]

It looks like it will be 5-5 with Shelob to vote...how will she vote?

EDIT: Not wanting to post after Eomer's post (again anyway), I'm posting my thoughts on the outcome of the vote as an edit. I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY. I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't something to Kuru's 'marching orders' comment. I know phantom has drawn attention to himself this round, but I don't think he's drawn enough to change an opinion that hopefully was made with some conviction. If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

There's a good chance that phantom is guilty, but if he is innocent & we've let a wolf off the hook (or noose, however you like) again then we've got a major problem on our hands.

[Firefoot]

then there is the other werewolf Firefoot

I like your certainty.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I like your certainty.

I fear it.

WHERE'S SHELOB?? THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME -- AND I GOT WORK TO DO TODAY!!

[Kuruharan]

I like your certainty.

We shall see.

WHERE'S SHELOB?? THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME -- AND I GOT WORK TO DO TODAY!!

If you'd only voted for Saucepan Man you wouldn't be in this spot.

[mormegil]

My My it's rather political isn't it right now. Can anyone else just see Kuru standing at the voting booth yelling at would be voters. Seems to be using intimidation now rather than logic. You did use logic before but now with the vehement yelling I think you are trying to scare people into the vote.

[Shelob]

"WHERE'S SHELOB?? THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME -- AND I GOT WORK TO DO TODAY!!"

In school...and this is close I'm so sorry fot that...but ++THE PHANTOM

[Kuruharan]

I'm sorry. I didn't mean to be coming across as yelling. I'm just engaging in a little ribbing to pass the time.

...maybe if I put more smilies after my posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it is clear which way I must vote. If I want to survive another day, I must vote for:

++ THE PHANTOM

Besides, his extraordinary effort to defend himself makes me suspicious and, in any event, I agree with Fordim that, if he is innocent, his self-serving blathering has done little to assist the village’s cause.

Edit: I am sure that it is clear why I waited until everyone else had voted before casting my own vote. If not, I'll spell it out tomorrow (if I survive the night).

And if the supense was killing you, Fordim, think what it was doing to me! At least I can get on with my work in peace now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, so voting is over. I must read all that I've missed (about 3 pages thanks to your incessant debate!) before I post again.

So expect a lynching quite soon, within the hour anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No scattered votes this time; the village had two main suspects, and by one vote it was decided that the phantom should be put to death.

He was indignant about this turn of events. When the townspeople came to hang him, he refused.

I won't give up my life without a fight he said coldly.

The villagers looked at each other, and then advanced on him. He stood up and braced himself for combat. That was enough to make the villagers leap towards him, pinning him to the ground.

But he fought like a man possessed, like a wild animal! He was wounding his fellows with his teeth and his fists. It took several minutes to keep him still. Tying him up was also very difficult, but they managed.

They led him to the gallows, but he almost broke free! So furious was he at this, the end of his life. Beast! they cried, Wolf! Curse you for what you have done! And the phantom did not argue (for a change). He merely stared at the villagers with hatred in his eyes, having been tied up with more rope.

Here was a werewolf thought the village.

And so the executioner (not without pleasure) did pull the lever, and the phantom fell, and another neck of the village had been snapped.

But his body just swayed in the wind.

At this sight, the wolves hidden in the audience laughed hidden laughs to themselves. Another innocent had been killed by his fellows.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3

Score:

Werewolves: 3 (?)
Villagers 7 (?)


NIGHT 4 has started, now that it is 4PM GMT (that's 11AM EST) and (10AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if all night-time activity is reported to me by then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers had become disciplined; awakening early and scrambling to the Town Hall as soon they were dressed. They needed to know what had happened during the night. On the night before last nothing had happened, but it swiftly became apparent that the Werewolves had not been denied a feast under the next moon.

Firefoot was missing.

O no, O dear! the villagers cried as they raced to her house. Firefoot owned the stable, a large friendly-looking home that was arguably the favourite destination of any tourists and travellers to Storyland. Firefoot's horses were known throughout the land.

But the villagers had already implicitly realised that money from tourism was going to be a record low this year. And the murder of Firefoot was probably the most gruesome yet: her horses had been slaughtered in the stable, and Firefoot had been drowned in a trough filled with blood.

The villagers quailed, and staggered out of the house. But one observant person noted something lying on a large round table: a book with fresh ink. It was some sort of diary.

Reading through the book, one particular passage stood out, as it had been written in a furious hurry of excitement, and was quite messy. It read thus:

My endeavours have not been in vain: I saved a villager. My spells are bewildering to others, and hardly tangible even to me, but I just know that the person was saved. I felt it in my bones that night. I helped, even in the slightest way, in the fight against this outrageous foe.

The villagers felt even sadder now. Certainly Firefoot was magical and some people had even supposed that she was a witch (similar to Evisse really), but they didn't realise how powerful she had been. She was their guardian, and she had saved a villager from the wolves. It was good to know that they had got lucky, and that there were only 3 werewolves terrorising them. However, with very little in the way of help left to them, they knew that they had to get their act together, and kill some wolves before it was too late.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 6


DAY 4 has started, now that it is around 3:15 PM GMT (that's 10:15 AM EST) and (9:15 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if a majority vote is reached before then.

[The Saucepan Man]

It is sad indeed that we are faced with the death of such an important member of our community. Unfortunately, since she seems to have been very low on most people’s list of suspects (and she was certainly low down on mine), it does not surprise me that the Werewolves went for her. And now it turns out that she was our Guardian. Well, at least she was able to protect one of our number from a grisly death. We should review our previous days’ discussions and see what accusations have been made against her, but I suspect that they are few in number. We should also look to see who she suspected the least, since she would no doubt have sought to protect one who she thought to be innocent.

In the meantime, I have a few thoughts that I would like to share with the village.

I should first say, in case anyone asks, that the reason that I voted last yesterday was twofold. First, I wanted to make sure that there was no tie in the voting, resulting in the death of two innocent Villagers. And secondly, if I was to be lynched, there were a few things that I wanted to say by way of a last message from a Villager whose innocence would have been established shortly thereafter.

As I indicated on a number of occasions yesterday, the phantom was never top of my suspect list. I had no great suspicion of him before yesterday (and even defended him on a number of occasions), and the only basis that I really had for suspecting him yesterday was the way that he went into overdrive in trying to defend himself. I would have preferred to have voted for another candidate, but in the end was given no real choice. Because of the way that the village acted yesterday, it came down to a question of him or me. Moreover, by the time I actually voted, any vote other than for the phantom would have resulted in both he and I being lynched, which would have resulted in the deaths of two innocent Villagers.

Which bring me to my main point. I hope that everyone can see that the entire proceedings yesterday were carefully (and masterfully, I might say) orchestrated to push the village in a certain direction. Very early on, a “shortlist” was identified for lynching. And it was put forward on a very logical basis. It comprised all of those who had voted for both Evisse and SoN.

The names on the list were the phantom, The Saucepan Man and The Only Real Estel. I now know that the phantom was innocent. I am also now pretty much convinced that The Only Real Estel is innocent, on the basis that he could have eliminated both Evisse and the phantom on Day 1 had he wanted to (which would have been a good Werewolf tactic, whatever the phantom may have said yesterday). And I know that I am innocent. I obviously don’t expect everyone blindly to accept that, but I hope that what I say below will go some way towards convincing those of you who are also innocent.

So, at least two, and probably three, of the names on this “shortlist” were those of innocent Villagers. How more ideal could it be for the Werewolves? As long as they could persuade the village to concentrate on at least two of those names, they would be free from any risk of being lynched and guarantee that an innocent Villager was killed at the end of the day. They might even succeed in lynching two innocents but, if not, there would still be prime suspects for lynching the next day (since, if the plan worked, each Villager on the list would end up voting for one of the others, ie an innocent).

So what happened yesterday? Well, the Werewolves concentrated their efforts on the phantom and me. They worked tirelessly through the day, first making sure that consideration remained focussed on the two of us and, secondly, in making sure that every Villager voted for one or other of us. We now know that there were three Werewolves operating that day. I believe that one took responsibility for keeping the focus on me, while the other two gunned for the phantom. Since, following the preceding days’ events, I was already high on most people’s list of suspects, it would not take so much effort to persuade people to vote for me. The phantom would require a little more effort (and probably more subtlety). They did not really mind which one of us was lynched, as long as it was one of us. The other could wait until the next day, they would have thought. It might have been the other way round, but I believe that one Werewolf went for, and voted for, me, while the other two went for, and voted for, the phantom.

Their plan worked pretty well too. I suspect that they didn’t really go for The Only Real Estel, because it was easier to concentrate peoples’ minds on two names, and easier to ensure that the phantom would vote for me and vice versa. And go for me and the phantom, they certainly did, succeeding in limiting the discussion to the two of us very early on and ultimately achieving a fairly even distribution of votes between the two of us (so no particular suspicion would attach for the Wolf or Wolves that voted for the one that ended up being lynched).

But it did not go entirely their own way. In limiting the eventual “shortlist” to two names, they hoped that the phantom and I would direct our energies towards taking each other out. That way, the survivor would be heavily implicated when the other was lynched and his innocence proved. The phantom fell for it and went for me in a big way. But I would not play along. I made no direct accusations and made clear on a number of occasions that I was not convinced of the phantom’s guilt. Kuruharan tried to suggest that I had implicated the phantom but, as I pointed out, given the two Villager shortlist, anything that I said in my defence would indirectly implicate the phantom. I most certainly did not “go for him” in any big way. And I am glad that I didn’t take the bait. It is perhaps one of the few right decisions that I have made in this game up until now, and it possibly means that suspicion may not be focused on me today quite as much as the Werewolves would have liked (or at least I hope so).

Now, I appreciate that what I have said largely assumes my own innocence and that there will be those amongst the remaining innocent Villagers who do not necessarily accept that I am innocent. But I would ask you to review everything that happened yesterday with an open mind and tell me that it does not make sense as a perfect Werewolfian strategy. And I think that you will also see that there were a number of people who were deliberately “herding” the village, first towards focussing on just two names and then towards voting for one or other of them.

Based on the above, I now have a pretty good idea of who two of the Werewolves are and strong suspicions as to the identity of the third. But, before naming any names myself, I would be interested to hear what the other Villagers have to say.

[Kuruharan]

He's at it again.

Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game. And as I said the other DAY, he was edging toward hanging the phantom. I suggested we should do something else just on general principle.

Guess what, he was wrong again.

And I am glad that I didn’t take the bait.

But you did take the bait. You voted for him.

And I think that you will also see that there were a number of people who were deliberately “herding” the village, first towards focussing on just two names and then towards voting for one or other of them.

Go ahead and lynch me then. We have one last bit of margin for error before we hit critical mass. Snapping my head off should put some sense into the others (although you probably do still have those hooks through people's jaws).

I'll have more later this afternoon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Nice to see that you are as open minded as ever, Kuru.

Originally Posted by Kuru

But you did take the bait. You voted for him.

Did you read what I said? In my position, anyone would have voted the way that I did, whether they were a Werewolf or an innocent Villager. My vote for the phantom establishes nothing. As I said, I would have preferred to have voted for someone else, but I wasn't given that opportunity, thanks to the Werewolves' stage management of yesterday's proceedings.

Go ahead and lynch me then.

I didn't name any names ...

Edit: To clarify, by not taking the bait, I meant not going all out against the phantom as a knee-jerk reaction to the Werewolves' two Villager shortlist.

Edit 2:

Originally Posted by Kuru

I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game.

So have you, actually ...

[Holbytlass]

I know I suggested the short-list of Phantom and SaucepanMan (post 190).
I was stating the obvious because at least one, if not both, are high on everyone's suspect list. So it just stood to reason to vote on these two.
It forced those of us (myself included) to not 'chicken-out' as Kuru put it,
and for information's sake gave the village a clearer view on where people stood.

Now I explain my vote...I believed Phantom's theory on SaucepanMan and Estel. I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched. And now his death proved his innocence.
I would expect SaucepanMan to do the same today. He is still high on my list and Estel.

It is a crying shame we lost our guardian. But at least we know she saved one of us and we are still dealing with 3 wolves not 4.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear…why do I think that I may be one of the names on Saucy’s secret list…?

All right, so we’ve lynched another innocent. I wish we hadn’t but I still think that The Phantom was a better choice than The Saucepan Man insofar as we will have the benefit of his more penetrating (and understandable) posts as we close in on the wolves. Because all evidence to the contrary I do believe that we can begin to close in on the fiends, finally.

It’s become clear to me, at least, that there are currently two kinds of people in the village: the verbose and the quiet. In the verbose camp we have myself, Sauce, Estel, mormegil, and Kuruharan. I daresay that at the moment, these are also the people who are drawing, and who will draw, the most suspicion. In the quiet camp we have Holbytlass, Oddwen, Shelob and Azaelia. These villagers are coming under the least suspicion. (I would have put Firefoot in this list but with her gone she is no longer on any list but that of brave innocents.)

Now, the first thing I’d like to point out about these lists is that they represent a gender split: talkative, blabbing, blathering and loudmouthed men on the one side, and more guarded, careful, thoughtful women on the other. The second thing I’d like to say is that men, I think we’re in a lot of trouble…

Here’s my theory…

If I were a wolf, I would be faced with two options in the early rounds of voting: speak out vocally and try to get an innocent hanged or duck for cover and wait for the villagers to lynch one another. To this point, I had no way of assessing which strategy might be the one adopted by the current crop of wolves, but after yesterday’s fireworks I think that we have some fuzzy beasts of the more quiet variety. Not only did we kill the most verbose and outspoken member of the loudmouthed male camp only to discover that he was an innocent, but the other members of that club worked very very hard to try and get other members of that camp strung up. Seems to me that if there is more than one wolf in this group, this is a very foolish way to behave. While this was going on, the quieter, more thoughtful (and more feminine) members of the village did what they had been doing all along and sat back while the men tore at one another. To be sure, they did vote, but they were not really active in the debate – nor did they need to be, what with the loudmouths doing such a good job of stringing up yet another innocent.

So my attention is now firmly shifting to those other members of the village. In particular I’m taking a much closer look at their voting records….

Holbytlass, Oddwen and Shelob have spread their votes around. In the first two rounds they never voted for the same name: only in the third round did both did Oddwen and Holbytlass vote together, and this time against Saucy – this seems suspicious to me, as it would appear that they wanted to keep TP around: which makes sense as he was one of the loudest mouths and was haranguing everyone with his theories in which the wolves were other loudmouths. In all three rounds the only one of these three to cast a vote against another was [b]Oddwen[b] against Holbytlass. As that is the only vote Holby has ever received, and no-one has really argued terribly hotly for her to be hanged, that would not really be a dangerous thing to do. Particularly in the second round when the loudmouths (myself included) really took charge and began going after one another.

More evidence against them: Firefoot is dead – she was the logical choice for this group to pick and believe me or not but I had decided that if she were the one to go, I would be convinced that my theory is correct. She had the least suspicion against her, but she was voting with the loudmouths on each round (against me in the first round, Sono in the second and TP in the third). Killing her is a good way of getting rid of an innocent without tipping their hands (paws) insofar as she has never accused them so it would not look like retribution. More importantly it allows them to keep the real loudmouths alive. If I were a smart, quiet, wolf, I would never want to see Kuru, SpM, TORE or me dead, insofar as they are doing a very good job of killing off each other and giving me a free ride. I would have learned from Azaeilia’s example that one can be utterly invisible and survive quite nicely.

My final piece of evidence is the attempt to frame me with the first werewolf killing. That was obviously designed to get the loudmouths going against one another. TGWBS and I were probably the two most vocal, and the other loudmouths soon joined in. The frame-up was never meant to work, insofar as getting me hanged, it was just meant to stir the pot. And stir it did.

So the obvious question is: how can I explain this sudden turn in my thinking? To this point I’ve been gunning for loudmouths myself and here I am now, suddenly making a wolfish-looking switch. I can only say that while I had my suspicions of this yesterday, I did not have nearly as much reason to follow those as I did my arguments against TP. But three things happened to convince me that I’ve been wrong all along:

1) TP was innocent

2) The loudmouths spent all their energy accusing each other; a stupid thing for werewolves to do

3) Firefoot was killed

I did not want to float this theory yesterday as it is based on the theory that the wolves are hiding: to let them know that I was looking at them before I was sure of who they were would have been foolish.

So that’s were I am at now. And this time, Kuru, I am willing to be as certain as you would like in my assertions. At least two of Oddwen, Holbytlass and Shelob are wolves. For my money, the best bets are Oddwen and Holbytlass.

[mormegil]

Wow! The phantom was innocent. I now have a lot of self-doubt about my ability to select a guilty person. I was so convinced since day 1 that I think I let my pride blind me into not looking at many other options. Though I did come very close to voting for SpM--so you're efforts weren't in vain Kuru. Though I'm still not 100% convinced of his guilt either.

I would like to hear some arguements and opinions of those who have remained a bit more reserved so all really except myself, SpM and Kuru. I know that Fordim and TORE have spoken some but I would really like to hear what you have to think now. Not to say I don't want to hear from the others I just know their current arguements.

I know that I am probably top on people's suspicion list and I accept that and would suspect me if I were in your shoes. I do point out that Firefoot suspected him a great deal as well. Look at my arguements against him and see if there is not at least a little merit in them. My hope and prayer is that we catch a wolf tonight to help even out the numbers a bit.

I await the response of those I have requested.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am glad that not all the Villagers' minds are as closed as Kuru's.

Originally Posted by Fordim

Oh dear…why do I think that I may be one of the names on Saucy’s secret list…?

Not necessarily, my dear Fordim. Clearly, you were the one who first identified the 3 Villager "shortlist". But it would not necessarily have been in the Werewolves' best interests to identify it so publicly and obviously.

I am interested in your theory, Fordim, as I have been troubled by the "quiet ones" too. I am pretty sure that at least one of them is a Werewolf, but my theory tends to suggest two loudmouths and one quiet one.

Interesting that you mention Oddwen's vote for Holbytlass. I said yesterday that I believed that one Werewolf had voted for another at least once, when it would have seemed safe to do so. That would certainly fit the bill. Indeed the only other vote that also fitted the bill was Firefoot's vote for you on the first day, and that was clearly not it.

I will review yesterday's events with your theory in mind.

[Holbytlass]

I thought this was an equal-opportunity village, Fordim!
I do agree that there probably is at least one 'quiet' wolf, but how does Oddwen voting for me make me a wolf? She was suspicious of my defensiveness when I (with others) were threatened with tied-lynchings just because we're not as loud as others. The Phantom had just been lynched and I'm sure some votes were cast because of his rantings that some perceived as a cornered animal. He turned out to be innocent.
I still think you are innocent and I still think this new theory is a good one (even if I am one of your main suspects) because it does remind all of us that the quiet ones need to be thought of as well. I know flattery will get me nowhere, I do mean it genuinely. But that doesn't mean there is not a 'loudmouth' he-wolf out there.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kuru
I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game.

So have you, actually ...

No. We do not know this because not enough people have been willing to put my theory to the test. We do know that you have been wrong about everything you have said. The same cannot be said for me because people aren't willing to find out.

[The Saucepan Man]

Given the gravity of the situation, I think that we should all concentrate less on defending ourselves and more in putting forward or developing theories. If we don't find a Werewolf today, we have but one more day to do so and we will then have to find another each day or the village is doomed.

We all know that everyone's words and actions can, in most cases, be interpreted either way. So, unless there is something said about you that you feel is particularly wrong or unfair, try not to waste too much effort in defence. After all, it didn't help the phantom (in fact it might possibly have counted against him) and I, for one, will understand if people do not respond every time that their name is mentioned as a possible suspect.

Names will be named today. It's inevitable. Some of those named will be innocent. So try not to take it too badly if your name is put forward. Accept it as a necessity of the game, and let's (those of us who are innocent) try to work together for once to solve this mystery. The clues must be there by now, so let's find them.

I have work to do now, but I hope to put forward some more ideas later.

[The Only Real Estel]

I have also been wondering as of late if we've been paying to much attention to the SpMs, SoNs, phantoms, Fordims, Estels, Kurus, & morms of the village an not enough to those that seem to be avoiding suspicion almost entirely.

Originally posted by me in an edit, reposting to make sure it is seen:

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY. I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't something to Kuru's 'marching orders' comment. I know phantom has drawn attention to himself this round, but I don't think he's drawn enough to change an opinion that hopefully was made with some conviction. If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

There's a good chance that phantom is guilty, but if he is innocent & we've let a wolf off the hook (or noose, however you like) again then we've got a major problem on our hands.

It helps that we know the cursed villager has not been converted yet, so we're still only dealing with three werewolves. But we've still got a big problem.

Originally posted by Holbytlass:

Now I explain my vote...I believed Phantom's theory on SaucepanMan and Estel. I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched. And now his death proved his innocence.

This is interesting. Please let me know which part of phantom's theory you think he supported well enough that it could be possible. The theory didn't work because he used a lot of partial quotes & early defenses - I would protect anyone from being accussed early on because of a 'throw-away' joke anyday, & anywhere. Also, a lot of the things that phantom used would have implicated him also...if you looked at the full quotes. Just read his theory & my response again.

I believed Phantom's innocence also, actually posting a defense of him (that I thought was strong enough to save him); or at least I believed him to the point that I wanted to have another day or so to review his case again. And note that he suspected I would vote for someone other than SpM when it came down to it - I did not.

I am still very suspicious of SpM. Unfortunately, he knows how to speech innocent speech, whether he is or not, so it is very difficult to decide for sure.

Also, is there something to SoN's parting theory of Fordim & SpM?

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game. I'm afraid it's only a wild hunch at this point, though.

As he said, it's is only a 'wild hunch,' and just because he was innocent doesn't make his theories invincible by any means, but a few things that happened did draw my attention towards the pair.

First, I thought that if they were working together, SpM would probably eventually back off & applaud Fordim for trying, but reiterate that there were to many holes to try it (so he wouldn't really be switching stances). Fordim would than back of his plan & the two would become allies again. This has pretty much happened (though I will readily admit that it might be by innocent intentions), but I was also a little bit suprised by SpM's reasoning for laying off of Fordy.

In post #51 SpM said:

I would have thought that now was the time to come out and admit that your proposals were a ploy to try to flush out potential Werewolves. Since you continue to defend the proposals, my suspicions of you are now very much heightened.

And then in post #124 SpM says:

The first may come as a surprise, but I am now pretty much convinced of Fordim’s innocence. The reason being that, since his proposals have not found favour with the majority and given that they are no longer capable of being implemented, I would have expected him (if a Werewolf) to come up with a story to distance himself from them, such as making out that they were merely a ploy to flush out the Werewolves. Yet he continues to defend them. He is already a prime suspect for lynching, and continuing to defend his ideas merely increases that risk. So I believe that he genuinely believes that they would have been of benefit to the village. I differ from him on that, but that in itself is no reason to hold them against him.

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

Again, this may be all a bunch of nothing, but I found it strange, & it won't get out of my head...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

I see your point Estel. It occurred to me at the time. But those two statements were made at different times, with things being said and done in between.

And, although that sounds like I am being defensive (which I counselled against), there is a more general point to be made. We should not just be looking at specific statements and trying to find contradictions. Not at this stage. Eveyone here has, I think, changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on ). Our views have to change to respond to changing circumstances. I am not saying that specific statements are not important, but we should now be using them to form broader theories based on patterns of behaviour. Both Werewolves and innocents will have said and done different things at different times. But we at least know what the Werewolves' objective is, and we should be able to look at the sum total of all has happened so far and identify patterns that are indiciative of Werewolf behaviour. That's what I mean when I talk about putting forward and developing theories.

In this regard, I will make one point that may be trite, but is nevertheless worth bearing in mind. The Werewolves will have been concentrating on getting those innocents who are most likely to be suspected lynched during the day and killing those who are the greatest threat to them at night (for example those who are unlikely to be lynched or who are getting close to the truth). In most cases, they will have been doing so subtly (which is why Fordim's theory has appeal), but there are probably times when they will have been doing this more overtly, when they felt it safe to do so. We should be able to spot these kinds of patterns by now, so let's try.

As I said, I have not got much time to spend reviewing previous events and devleoping theories right now, but I will be concentrating on doing so later.