Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Macalaure]

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 read like a paraphrase of my #222 with a higher word count?

I agree with Nilp's point on Lottie's defense of Hui not looking seerish.

Originally Posted by Nog

That doesn't mean that Form or Nilp are "shown innocents", and one of the two might totally be a wolf, but it does decrease at least my suspicions of them as it looks more likely the wolves were sound & safe.

Let's say one of Nilp or Form is a wolf. In that case, the voting at one point was close enough as to be worrisome. The question is, if you are a fellow wolf who hasn't voted yet, do you vote for Hui to make sure your fellow survives, knowing that your own vote is going to get major scrutiny the next Day, or do you take the calculated risk and hope for the best. Especially if your fellow self-voted! I don't think we can deduce anything about Nilp or Form from yesterDay's voting.

Originally Posted by Nog

A seer doesn't want to cry "I'm the Seer" all Day, but oftentimes Seers feel some pressure when the end of the Day draws nearer. It would be sad to get killed leaving nothing of your knowledge to others.

True, but in that case seer-Lottie would have been very unsubtle about it.


And let me say that I am very much not a fan of how Nog and then Nilp are discussing why I look more seerish than Loslote. If I actually was the seer I'd be mad as mordor right now. Major cobbler-pings.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Hang on, what? Sure, the wolves don't know who the Gifteds are. But why would that mean they'd purposefully go after whoever looked most likely to be an ordinary villager instead of trying to catch a Gifted, even if they could be wrong? Whoever they kill (even if they accidentally kill their Cobbler) will count as an innocent in the tally anyway, but if their victim is an ordo the benefits stop there.

Exactly what I was getting at. BG's reasoning doesn't make any sense.

Originally Posted by Legate

Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.

I do agree with this.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I notice BG keeps talking about lynching when she actually means Night-killing. I'm actually inclined to think she wouldn't be this confused as a wolf.

That did cross my mind. But this is simply a matter of terminology so I could perhaps see a wolf who hasn't played in a long time getting the words mixed up too. I find a lot of BG's reasoning to be very strange (i.e. why Lottie was killed). I'm not sure if she is simply a confused ordo or deliberately trying to mislead. Perhaps another cobbler?

Originally Posted by Mac

And let me say that I am very much not a fan of how Nog and then Nilp are discussing why I look more seerish than Loslote. If I actually was the seer I'd be mad as mordor right now. Major cobbler-pings.

This raised my eyebrows too. For one thing, with these comments, they are under the assumption that you are indeed innocent (which if a wolf, they would know if that's true).

Nog is more concerning to me right now. I won't do another Hui voter analysis since there's enough already out there, but I do think between the timing and reasoning, his vote is most suspicious among the four. I also don't like his pushing of the Legate-wolf theory.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.

I see Legate brought this up earlier too. Could a Nog-wolf been worried that a Lottie-seer would dream of him next?

[Pitchwife]

Just popping in briefly to note a few things:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.
[...]

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.

This is actually worse than Nog & Nilp about Mac. Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent. *ping*

It has been discussed (by I think Nilp, but not only) that the lack of any concerted action at the end of yesterDay's voting could indicate that none of the wolves were in danger. That is of course possible, but I don't think we should take it for granted when there's a wolf in this game whom the pack wouldn't at all mind putting on the dead thread. If one of the other lynch candidates, i.e. either Form or Nilp, was the NW, why would the pack have tried to save them? And that's even supposing there were at least one or two wolves left among the late voters, which is far from certain.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Am I paranoid

Yes.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

or does Legate's #228 read like a paraphrase of my #222 with a higher word count?

Also yes.

[Nogrod]

Just popped in to see if anything is going on... well, basically no. I agree the last game was a bit too verbiose, but this is kind of streching it to the other extreme.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I also don't like his pushing of the Legate-wolf theory.

Well, what would you like me to do to be more in your liking?

Sadly Lottie's death is the only fact we have relating to the identities of the wolves - with the reasonable assumption, that they were trying to find the Seer. There is little else to discuss right now. And the "Legate-theory" seems to me more plausible than the "Hui-theory".

I'll be back actually playing the game later in the evening and will try to look for other subjects / other points of view. I'm not any happier to discuss only one issue. But yes, hopefully later toDay, with better time.

Originally Posted by Brinn

This raised my eyebrows too. For one thing, with these comments, they are under the assumption that you are indeed innocent (which if a wolf, they would know if that's true).

Maybe I just don't get what you mean here, or then you're really trying to make something perfectly natural look like something sinister on purpose? If one speculates whom the wolves might have looked at as a Seer-candidate, they don't look for their fellow-wolves: so you have to assume everyone an innocent while speculating that.

I mean, should one go like: "hmmm, who might the wolves have thought is the seer? X seemed to make some seerish comments, but no, I think s/he might be a wolf, so that's not a possible scenario"?????

Originally Posted by Brinn

I see Legate brought this up earlier too. Could a Nog-wolf been worried that a Lottie-seer would dream of him next?

I could have been, indeed. Well, especially if Legate and me would both have been wolves, we would had definitively jumped on Lottie with no hesitation.

There's just one crucial "but" though...


Anyway, that's actually quite a nice theory. We should put it forwards as the third option-theory? The wolves and I do know it's not true, but to all you others it might make sense - and the wolves might love to have a go with it.


EDIT: X'd with Pitch - heh, basically the same opening...

[Thinlómien]

Aaaand I'm here. Not really surprised by Hui's innocence, nor super surprised to see Lottie gone - I mean she didn't attract much suspicion nor do any stunts that would have overtly screamed ordo. Should have a look at both deaths, there might be something interesting - there was very little drive in the lynch in any direction yesterDay and I'm as usual assuming that the wolves are gunning for the seer.

Originally Posted by Mac

But anyway, the voting was pretty much all over the place and I hope we can do better toDay. I find analyzing this hard - no real bandwaggon, pretty much everyone voting for who they want with fairly weak suspicions. Yes, I know, Day 1, sure sure... but we really made it easy for the wolves to just vote for whoever with whatever reason.

Agreed. If you compare it to the last game, it's actually quite striking - we had a very action-packed Day1 with two competing bandwagons and neither of them was even for a wolf.

Looking at the tally, the only thing that really stands out to me is that if Form is a wolf, we should look at Nogrod and Kath.

Also, looking at Nilp's vote analysis, Shasta and Rikae's reasonings seem pretty innocent to me, Nogrod and Kath's leave me rather undecided. I maintain that Kath seems a lot more cheerful than last game when she was a wolf (understandable is she's innocent now, at least I tend to be less tense and more happy to play as an ordo ), but perhaps she just got more used to wolfing and is more chill now? Anyway, I find it a bit worriesome that I don't find any of the Hui voters too suspicious, because logic says they would have been involved (if only for the reason that Hui was a popular suspect in the village so it would have been a "socially acceptable" pick).

Originally Posted by Legate

Just before the DL, she had this short exchange with Nog. I am wondering if that could in any way have been a factor, since she never got to finish that sentence. Plus, her apology to Hui could have also been seen as another sign of innocence.

Wait, what? "Sign of innocence"? The wolves would know she's innocent anyway... or are you saying Lottie made herself look so innocent they had to kill her off? That sounds extremely unlikely.

I don't think Lottie looked too seerish in either how she defended Huin (the "hope you have a good time in the dead thread" is a tad too much attention-drawing) or how she suspected Legate (would a seer stick her neck out like tha if there's no chance to get her dreamed wolf lynched that Day anyway?) but obviously the wolves and I don't think alike. Something to chew on.

Originally Posted by Nilp

(These two being Mac's second and third posts in the game. Btw, Nog has already touched upon the second post on his post here.)

The earlier of those posts (made 11 minutes before the deadline) post-dated three of Lottie's posts on hS (which I quoted here), if that is of any significance.

If the Wolves were down to innocent-Mac and innocent-Lottie as their Seer target, what pushed them to choose Lottie over Mac?

Because Mac is a wolf? That would make sense, but to be fair he doesn't give me very wolfy vibes. (Then again, last game he did and turned out to be innocent. )

Originally Posted by Mac

And let me say that I am very much not a fan of how Nog and then Nilp are discussing why I look more seerish than Loslote. If I actually was the seer I'd be mad as mordor right now. Major cobbler-pings.

True as well. Or perhaps a wolf who doesn't care about (looking like he's) outing the seer to the wolves because it doesn't cross his mind.

So +1 to this too:

Originally Posted by Brinn

For one thing, with these comments, they are under the assumption that you are indeed innocent (which if a wolf, they would know if that's true).

Originally Posted by Pitch

It has been discussed (by I think Nilp, but not only) that the lack of any concerted action at the end of yesterDay's voting could indicate that none of the wolves were in danger. That is of course possible, but I don't think we should take it for granted when there's a wolf in this game whom the pack wouldn't at all mind putting on the dead thread. If one of the other lynch candidates, i.e. either Form or Nilp, was the NW, why would the pack have tried to save them? And that's even supposing there were at least one or two wolves left among the late voters, which is far from certain.

This is also a fair point.

[Thinlómien]

Hmm. Having read everything, basically more than half of the village give me actively innocent vibes, which is worriesome. (I mean, more than half of the village ARE innocent, but I doubt I'm very accurate. )

For the record, those who DON'T sound particularly innocent to me are:

Brinniel
Formendacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
satansaloser2005

and I'm likely to vote one of them toDay. The one who stands out to me the most is probably Nogrod, who seems to be contrivedly making mountains out of molehills (yes, I know we don't have much to go on, but there's a fabricated undertone to his speculations) and a little tense too. I know he prefers to be innocent so being a wolf could totally make him act like this.

Legate, Sally, and Brinn I'd all like to hear more from.

Form necessarily not but I'm flipflopping on whether I just suspect him because I never see eye to eye with him in ww games, or if he's actually fishy, or both.

I am a bit worried about how quiet the game is (are we all exhausted from last game? tbh I might be a little, and of course, I have been quite busy with work - whoever invented weekend shifts should be canceled btw) and that the wolves might be happy to keep it that way. Let's not forget there are FOUR of them, which is quite a big chunk of us. On that note, we'd really better catch one toDay - but nobody seems much panicking about that?

Also it really stands out to me that the game has been very "diplomatic" so far - last game we had strong suspicions flying around all the time since Day1 basically. Now it's eeriely quiet. Are the usual controversial players trying to lay low? What's up?

[A Little Green]

Is it just me or is Nog acting weird?

Originally Posted by Nog

Sadly Lottie's death is the only fact we have relating to the identities of the wolves - with the reasonable assumption, that they were trying to find the Seer. There is little else to discuss right now. And the "Legate-theory" seems to me more plausible than the "Hui-theory".

I'll be back actually playing the game later in the evening and will try to look for other subjects / other points of view. I'm not any happier to discuss only one issue. But yes, hopefully later toDay, with better time.

Sure, Lottie’s death is the most substantial thing we have. But there is also a perfectly legitimate reason to analyse yesterDay’s voting and especially the Huin lynch, and “there is little else to discuss right now” sounds a lot like an attempt to ignore this topic completely. I mean, I could see why innocent Nog wouldn’t be very keen on discusing the lynch, or why he’d be biased to think that it was misguided but benign. But the combination of downplaying all discussion of a lynch that looks incriminating for him, and pressing attention on Legate instead, looks a bit too deliberate to be innocent. But then, this would also be pretty brazen behaviour for a Nogwolf, especially this early in the game. He says he’ll be back to try to look for other subjects or points of view, and I hope he does because his current one is making me very uneasy.

That said – flip-flop alert – I do think the argument against Legate is solid enough to merit going back and having a read through his posts. Back soon.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let's say one of Nilp or Form is a wolf. In that case, the voting at one point was close enough as to be worrisome. The question is, if you are a fellow wolf who hasn't voted yet, do you vote for Hui to make sure your fellow survives, knowing that your own vote is going to get major scrutiny the next Day, or do you take the calculated risk and hope for the best. Especially if your fellow self-voted! I don't think we can deduce anything about Nilp or Form from yesterDay's voting.

That is a bit too decisive "no" to my liking. We can extrapolate likely scenarios. This is slightly pinging my radar because it seems like Mac is downplaying the possibility to gain some insight from the voting pattern here, especially if one of Nilp or Form actually happen to be Wolves.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I could have been, indeed. Well, especially if Legate and me would both have been wolves, we would had definitively jumped on Lottie with no hesitation.

There's just one crucial "but" though...


Anyway, that's actually quite a nice theory. We should put it forwards as the third option-theory? The wolves and I do know it's not true, but to all you others it might make sense - and the wolves might love to have a go with it.

Okay, wait, what? I am absolutely not sure what to make of this. Why would you say something like that? Unless a) you are a Cobbler, b) you are a Wolf trying to drag me down with you by association? Or what?!?

Now I'm really thinking the reason for Lottie's death might really be her last point at Nog and now that people noticed it, he's preparing himself a collateral.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Wait, what? "Sign of innocence"? The wolves would know she's innocent anyway... or are you saying Lottie made herself look so innocent they had to kill her off? That sounds extremely unlikely.

"Sign of innocence" as in further underlining everything that I have listed before, going along with her possible decisive, Seerish vibe, whether we think that her defending Hui was too obvious or not. The WWs did not have much more information than we did, they obviously had to decide based on something.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy and Greenie

[Rikae]

I haven't had time to go back and reread day 1 looking at Lottie through "wolf eyes" as I meant to, but I have been thinking about her comments about Legate and Nog and here's where I arrived.

If I were a wolf-Legate, her shift at last minute would certainly have been alarming, but my likely conclusion would be either she's a) a seer who hasn't dreamt me yet but is likely to, or b) a perceptive ordo. In the first case I'd be as good as dead, in the latter, my best chance of survival would be to not kill her immediately. I would see little harm in letting her live another day. for observation, on the off chance it was b) and I'd get out of it unscathed.

I'm really not buying (lots of that going on, is this a village meeting or a market?) Nog's theory that Lottie would have looked like a seer who dreamed Legate already. If she wanted to hint, she'd have been way more subtle, not ignored him all day and then painted a big target on herself at deadline.

Now, Nog is another matter. If I were a Nogwolf, there would be every reason to kill Lottie, both as a potential seer and as someone the village was likely to treat as a semi-known innocent toDay, and little reason not to, as it doesn't draw attention to him nearly as dramatically as to Legate.

Of course this mostly applies to any other wolf as well. I'm going to need to go back and look at what Lottie said about those she found innocentish, I think.

But for now, -1 wolf point to Legate, +1 wolf point to Nogrod. Google says that's a neighborhood in Chicago.

Also, spreadsheets? Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?
As for me, I have them going for diet/weight/exercise, food storage & mead brewing, and that's enough. My WW notes are in word documents, which I've just started trying to organize with a system of folders and links. I was telling Mac the other day that I'd like to calculate, for the frequent players, "scores" for their resilience, persuasiveness, perceptiveness, etc. in previous games but I'm having a hard time figuring out which data to use. Persuasiveness is especially hard. I want to know who's good at convincing others to vote for someone, but how do you quantify "trying to convince"? Just voting for the lynchee or mentioning them isn't enough ... it will require more thought ...

Edit: X'd with Green and Leg

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

A short list for now...

Green zone:

Lommy - generally seems innocentish to me, nothing that would give me Wolfy vibes.
Greenie - also nothing in particular. I may want to start paying more attention to her, because I realise she's been under my radar, but more or less reasonable posting thus far.
Brinn - same. I agree with many of her points, especially regarding BG. She's basically the Rune of this game for me.

Lemon-lime zone:

Rikae - yesterDay seemed generally like going with very rational analysis that I could essentially follow. Would like to see more from them still toDay.

Yellow zone:

Pitch - has some reasonable points, but also sometimes very strange ones. I also think I should get a better read on him, perhaps I'll review his posts when I have time. But he's nowhere near my top list of suspicious people.
Nilp - yesterDay was all over the place, toDay is very rational, systematic, overall making a lot of sense. Of course it might be a convenient tactic for a Wolf that would also enable him to gently skew the perspective - what better way to do it but in a thorough analysis - but I am so far more content with him than yesterDay.
Kath - overall posting sensibly, rationally. I am however growingly getting some uncertain vibe that there might be something fermenting underneath. I would like to see more posting from her.

Yellow but with grey questionmarks because missing content:

Shasta - where is Shasta? I absolutely want to see more from him toDay.
sally - basically ditto. Appeared, but did not really contribute thus far.

Orange zone:

Mac - there are some things in his posting that strike me as peculiar, like just now the way he so straightforwardly dismissed the possibility to glean something about Form&Nilp from yesterDay's voting. Continuing watching him.
Form - I am still not free from the suspicion I had of him yesterDay. Plus, given the setup of votes yesterDay, I am not ruling out that either he or Nilp might be Wolves who were being at some point covered for by votes of other Wolves, and he seems to me to be the more likely one. He may also be a Cobbler, which also does not rule out the above scenario, in theory.

Red Zone:

Nog - see above; yesterDay, I only thought he behaved a bit less confrontationally or inquisitively than I would expect of him, now his posting went from bad to worse. Plus his vote was also in a rather convenient position and his reasoning for Hui looks exactly like something a Wolf would be happy to pick on (and if Form is his fellow Wolf, Nog intentionally diverted attention from him towards Hui). Might be my primary vote candidate toDay.
BG - I am still suspicious about her vote yesterDay, and I still think it was the most likely Wolf-y one, however fairly straightforward. But also would like to see more about her current suspicions etc.

I'm going to air my head a little now, and if there isn't a terrible post barrage by the time I'm back, I might want to look back at Nog's and BG's posts especially if I have time, to try it with a bit of distance.

EDIT: x-ed with Rikae

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, wait, what? I am absolutely not sure what to make of this. Why would you say something like that? Unless a) you are a Cobbler, b) you are a Wolf trying to drag me down with you by association? Or what?!?

Now I'm really thinking the reason for Lottie's death might really be her last point at Nog and now that people noticed it, he's preparing himself a collateral.

I read that as frustrated Nog overreacting to a theory that incriminates him - and conveniently implying anyone who suspects him is a wolf. I remember him doing stuff like this before whatever his role, so I didn't read that much into it. Kind of on par with Nilp spending D1 telling everyone he's a wolf. Legate's response is borderline over-jumpy, though understandable.

Incidentally, I did have a brief look at Legate's posts. Not much stood out to me either way - there's some game mechanics talk and comments on how quiet it is, but also what was probably the only list post of D1. He votes for Form, saying he prefers him to Huin. Had previously said Brinn and Form discussed wolf strategies in a way that looked like they had already had the discussion the Night before. No alarm bells here. D2 he analyses first the Lottie kill and then the Huin lynch. His post on Lottie did make me raise an eyebrow - he mentions framing him as a possible motive, though to his credit doesn't seem to think it likely. In the same post, he also pretty much discredits the idea that the wolves thought Lottie was the Seer who dreamed of Huin by saying they would think a potential Seer who dreamed an innocent on N1 was "no big deal". This is a distinctly weird argument, but would be even weirder if Legate was a wolf since the Huin theory would be a good counter-argument against the suspicion he would have known he'd come under.

Overall, reading Legate's posts made me feel somewhat better about him - especially the last bit about actively discrediting an argument that would work in his defence. (Unless he's the NW, in which case all bets are off.) What I do find interesting though is the dynamic between Nog and Legate as each of them now seems to think the Lottie kill incriminates the other. *fetches popcorn* Joking aside though, this unnerves me as I think there's still a decent chance they're both innocent - Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.

I've now caused myself a flip-flop headache. Should probably look at other people too...

[satansaloser2005]

Here and reading.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

BG - I am still suspicious about her vote yesterDay, and I still think it was the most likely Wolf-y one, however fairly straightforward. But also would like to see more about her current suspicions etc.

Okay here's my spreadsheet so far

4 Wolves
Form, Nog, Legate, Nilp, Sally (post 14 & 220)

Form and Nog are underlined because I thought they were most likely to be Wolves. I also have Form on my Cobbler list because other people think that he's a Cobbler.

Up until Nog voted it was a tie between Nilp, Form, and hS. Nogwolf broke that tie and pushed the voting towards hS. At the same time he protected buddy Formwolf.

Legate is on the list because Lottie voted for him.

Sally is on that list for dumb dumb reasons (she referred to herself as "it").


1 Cobbler
Form, Pitch, Nilp
Pitch is my most likely Cobbler due to that fish boot comment. Although I did like his explanation I still felt that could have been a coverup.

Nilp could also be a Cobbler, but I don't feel comfortable voting for him due to his suicidal tendencies.


1 Seer
No comment yet...

1Ranger
Shasta was present on Day 1 but didn't really say that much. I felt like he was active but not saying anything to be suspicious.

1 Beast Hunter

Nog (post 10)

Okay bear with me. This might only make sense in my head. And yes, I know, flip-flopping.

Originally Posted by Nog

Looking at what these beasts have done to Mr. Boro, I can't help thinking we need to take some measures we would not be comfortable taking in any normal circumstances.

Am I crazy?? Beast + measures not comfortable (hunting wolves)... = beast hunter?

6 Villagers
Huinesoron
Loslote

Others
I'm not sure why Pitch voted for Kath.

Originally Posted by Pitch

A wolf plot made of one person suspecting you and another posting a general speculation unrelated to you. I'd say that's very much in the eyes of the beholder. I could even say construed.


That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed. What I don't agree with is you implying Lottie in the (nonexistent) plot.
[Note to posterity: soft wolf-on-wolf between Kath and Hui + attempt to drag Lottie into it which fizzled out subsequently?]
__________________

That's it? So pretty much a throwaway vote?

Okay that's all for now. I have to go for a bit.

Took 30+ minutes to type this up so most likely X'ed with a bunch.

[Macalaure]

Just skimmed the Day to see if anything pops out.

Originally Posted by BG

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything. Then at the last minute (while on a dying cell phone) I realized that was a bad idea. Oh well.
I probably shouldn't even say thing because one of my last games (years and years ago) I go lynched solely on my explanation of why I voted as I did.

If you don't say it, it didn't happen. Anyway though, I'm buying this explanation. I actually find it a little eyebrow-raising that Brinn and Legate are so over this.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

It definitely depends on how sure you are, though. Say you're a wolf and someone suspects you Day1 and then you night-kill them for suspecting them to be the seer, but you happen to be wrong. Now you repeat that during the next night and the next and... there's no way the village lets you live through all of that. With all seer-hunting, wolves also have to make sure the kills don't leave an obvious trail. A vague seer suspicion might not always be worth it.

Originally Posted by Pitch

This is actually worse than Nog & Nilp about Mac. Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent. *ping*

I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?

No spreadsheet-shaming!

This is slightly pinging my radar because it seems like Mac is downplaying the possibility to gain some insight from the voting pattern here, especially if one of Nilp or Form actually happen to be Wolves.

That's not exactly what I meant. There's two ways to interpret the voting, I think:

- One or both of Nilp and Form is a wolf and the wolves needed Hui to die instead. Rikae tieing him with Form, and then of course Nog and Kath's votes are suspicious in this case.

- Or neither is a wolf, in which case the wolves could've done anything they wanted, with throwaway-votes being slightly suspicious (Brinn, Pitch, and yes, me).

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

This raised my eyebrows too. For one thing, with these comments, they are under the assumption that you are indeed innocent (which if a wolf, they would know if that's true).

I guess I should have written my post under a 'J'accuse' byline (as I had thought of doing).

I am suspecting Mac of being a Wolf, if that's not clear enough.

On the basis of Lottie's death alone (assuming reasonable Wolves looking for the Seer), these three are implicated

• Legate
• Nog
• Mac (by the reasoning Nog and I have advanced

Based on little more than ill-defined feelings, Mac is most suspicious to me on that list, followed by Legate and Nog, in that order.

[Nogrod]

As it looks like that every time I express thoughts and give reasons for them I only get suspected, I would better just shut up.

Also, I remember that I used to vote at the very last minute because I felt I had a responsibility to be there in case of any last minute hassle by the wolves. That tended to put me under extra-suspicion in every-game and started getting heavy (I'd love to play one game in my life when I could do other stuff but defend myself from all kinds of accusations). So I decided to try a change and vote earlier - only to be accused of lycanthrophy because of that.

That is kind of frustrating.


I'll best go back taking over the Marshalls and Gilbert Islands from the Japanese.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Mac

Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

I have never done this. It may explain why I rarely win.

I'm not properly around yet but having skimmed these things I do not like:

Originally Posted by Nog

There is also this:

To me that looks more, or at east as "seerish" (the odd way of éxpressing it), than anything Lottie did to say she thinks about hS's innocence.

Originally Posted by Nilp

If the Wolves were down to innocent-Mac and innocent-Lottie as their Seer target, what pushed them to choose Lottie over Mac?

Having picked the Mac thing up from Nog, he continues with it.

And then in BG's post 253 they seem to be actively trying to out Gifteds.

Deliberately pointing out potential Gifted's is, to me at least, not a good thing for the village.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not seeing why poor Huey was lynched yesterDay. Of the people on the block, I found Kath and Form to be more suspicious, though of course I didn't read in detail until I was feeling better and therefore had the knowledge of Huey's innocence. Also got weird vibes reading Mac. More on that later I hope.

A LIST!
Greenie: No read so far
BG: Getting an innocent vibe
Brinn: Still reeling from her excellence last game, automatic pass for toDay
Form: Yellow light, we'll see what happens the rest of toDay
Kath: Immediately struck me as suspicious and haven't changed my mind
Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me
Mac: Suspicious but not my main concern right now, again, more on that later
Nog: Not the mod, Sally, you idiot, pay attention to him
Nilp: ++My beloved, whom I don't suspect for now because he's always like this <3
Pitch: No read at all, but that's typical for him
Rikae: A decent feeling about them at this point, prefer to focus on others
Shasta: Feeling good about him at the moment
Lommy: Safe enough not to vote her, but I don't entirely trust her either

So I think that makes my projected pack for the Day: Form, Kath, Legate, and Mac, and no candidate for cobbler

Fork, now to bold the list and get back to more detailed thoughts. My headache is coming back too.

x'd since my last

[Pitchwife]

BG, for crying out loud, we don't tell the whole village who we think the Gifted are!
(I really don't know what to make of BG at this point. I don't necessarily disagree with her conclusions (except as concerns myself, obviously), but the way she gets there is kind of weird and awkward.)
As for my Kath vote, although I said to Hui I couldn't see a wolf plot against him 'tween Kath and Lottie, I still thought (and think) Kath by herself could be a wolf for reasons I've explained more than once now.

Originally Posted by Mac

I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.

Of course we all do it, but as you say, it shouldn't be said out loud. Also it could be used to cover for a fellow wolf, making people think they might be gifted instead of wolvish.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?

No details about your married life, please.

[Nogrod]

PS. No, I'm not quitting the game. I'm just a bit frustrated at the moment and will take a break (heh, just came back...).

And no, I'm not going to get dragged into defence-mode. That fun of spoiling my game I'm not allowing the wolves to have.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As it looks like that every time I express thoughts and give reasons for them I only get suspected, I would better just shut up.

Also, I remember that I used to vote at the very last minute because I felt I had a responsibility to be there in case of any last minute hassle by the wolves. That tended to put me under extra-suspicion in every-game and started getting heavy (I'd love to play one game in my life when I could do other stuff but defend myself from all kinds of accusations). So I decided to try a change and vote earlier - only to be accused of lycanthrophy because of that.

That is kind of frustrating.

This reads as a legitimately frustrated innocent Nog to me. Nog is normally facts and figures, not airing of any frustration, so I feel much better about him now. Also, don't shut up. We need you!

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hmm. Having read everything, basically more than half of the village give me actively innocent vibes, which is worriesome. (I mean, more than half of the village ARE innocent, but I doubt I'm very accurate. )

For the record, those who DON'T sound particularly innocent to me are:

Brinniel
Formendacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
satansaloser2005

Whoa, whoa, hold on. How am I suspicious despite saying absolutely nothing of consequence before today? (I know, i know, I get flustered when I'm suspected as an innocent. It's a problem.) That doesn't make any sense to me. Please explain what has been suspicious in the zero game-related things I said?


I'm better now. Moving on....


x'd since my last again

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better.

Not necessarily. Kath's vote didn't look at all panicky to me - she got the ball rolling on the entire Huin thing very early on in the Day, then came back after it had become a wagon and voted for him. If anything, it looks almost too choreographed.

I haven't had time to go through everyone as I hoped, but just quickly -

I'm currently most uneasy about Nog and Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of Rikae and Brinn, and flip-flopping on Legate and Mac.

Lommy and Sally are securely under my radar, and while Sally is understandable, Lommy is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too. Nilp seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself. I'm also leaning innocent on BG and to some extent Form (although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 read like a paraphrase of my #222 with a higher word count?

I hate to just repeat someone else, but I think this is one of the things about Legate that makes me uncomfortable this game. He made some good points, but someone else had made them first, so he's able to say the same thing while also being safer and less likely to be attacked for saying it.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As it looks like that every time I express thoughts and give reasons for them I only get suspected, I would better just shut up.

Also, I remember that I used to vote at the very last minute because I felt I had a responsibility to be there in case of any last minute hassle by the wolves. That tended to put me under extra-suspicion in every-game and started getting heavy (I'd love to play one game in my life when I could do other stuff but defend myself from all kinds of accusations). So I decided to try a change and vote earlier - only to be accused of lycanthrophy because of that.

That is kind of frustrating.


I'll best go back taking over the Marshalls and Gilbert Islands from the Japanese.

No no, not so. I mean, I get your frustration - it reminds me of my first couple of WW games (the Mr Agreeable period) when I was trying to figure out how the hezmana I was supposed to be playing so as not to make myself suspicious as an innocent - but at the same time, this is how the game is played, and you know it.


And you're not suspected for voting early but for lynching an innocent with forced reasoning. That's a difference. So expect virtual hugses galore but no quarter.

[satansaloser2005]

I need to step away from screens for a bit. I'll be back with plenty of time to vote.

[Rikae]

On Lottie's day 1 posts:
Let's not forget, in her very second post, her first mention of anyone, she banteringly goes after Form. This could have made a Form-wolf antsy - however, she voted for someone else when Form was in danger of being lynched, and that *should* have neutralized that.

Incidentally, just want to get this out there: the idea that there was little opposition to the Hui wagon = no wolves in danger doesn't quite hold water. It could just mean the wolves sat on their paws and hoped for the best rather than risk leaving a trail. This could especially be the case if they already thought the wolf in jeopardy was seer-dreamed or otherwise a lost cause (and I could totally see them leaving a packmate Nilp or Form to take his chances). So I'm not going to discount the possibility of a Nilp or Form wolf here.

#154

Originally Posted by Lottie

I get good vibes from*Greenie,*Rikae*and*Brinn, and pretty good vibes from*Shasta*and*Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question*Blind Guardian*or*Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people.

A Greenie, Rikae(hey, you don't know my role), Brinn, Shasta, BG or Sallywolf would have been perfectly happy to kill Lottie immediately if they thought she looked otherwise seerish, but nothing here would have made it any more likely. Of course, with only one dream most of the seer's posting is just going to be guesswork anyway, but a potential seer on the wrong track is less of an immediate threat to the wolves than a potential seer on the right track.

No wolf points.

With that in mind:

Originally Posted by Loslote

That leaves*Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy*as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about*Kath*or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about*Nog, Legate, and Lommy*by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

... no wolf points there either. It's very noncommittal, I don't think any of these people as wolves would be particularly worried about Lottie after reading this.

And one thing that jumped out at me just now, from toDay. Nog says this would have looked seerish:

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

I disagree. Not another wolf point for Nog because one could reasonably disagree on this, but I don't think that looks seerish at all and therefore wouldn't put stock in theories based on that. I'd actually even put it in "things a seer might hesitate to say but a non-seer wouldn't think twice about saying" category.

As of now Form still looks vaguely suspicious to me, and Nogrod is worrying me but I don't want to put too much weight on him being a bit paranoid - that's led me astray before.

[Formendacil]

On the subject of why everything's quiet today, I can only speak for myself: it's a Sunday and the weather is gorgeous here. (Which may end the Excel experimeent... I haven't been keeping up with even the minor posts! Though we'll see... if work is uncharacteristically dead on a Monday tomorrow...).

Thoughts thus far:

Blind Guardian - Overall, I'm suspicious, but I think that's mostly just that she popped out of nowhere and got a lynchwaggon rolling toward me yesterday. Her posts today strengthen my mistrust.

Brinniel - True neutral. She hasn't left much of an impression--she was right on the cusp of the bottom three for impact yesterDay and I haven't been engaged as much toDay. Neutral is bad, but I'm not sure it's suspicious.

Kath - I thought something looked a bit off when I posted this morning, and I don't seem to be the only one. Her vote for Huin simultaneously looks like hiding her reasoning in a bandwaggon AND the final nail in Huin's coffin. Can it be both? She's one of my top two suspects.

Legate - Not suspicious to me yet. Maybe he should be? Just from Life (aka, Facebook and a dozen years in the forums), I feel like I *ought* to have an opinion.

A Little Green - Falls into the "would have liked more posts" column, but the few that have been seem substantive enough. This could be a wolf trying to thread the "don't lurk, don't drawn attention" needle, but she's not on my radar.

Macalaure - Has seemed more active today (or is that just the rest of us being less active?). Roughly in the same category as Greenie: I have no real opinion.

Nilpaurion - I had no idea what his role was yesterDay... and somehow I have even less idea today. Does this mean that Nilp is actually Cobblering by... doing nothing suspicious? I don't know that I trust him, but I don't think he's a wolf.

Nogrod - He's drawn attention to doings things differently than in past, and I think it's been laboured a bit too much. But I also don't think he'd do that as a Wolf? But I *do* think he would be cunning enough to try it as a Wolf. Layers upon layers. I lean suspicious, but not my first choice to lynch on that score.

Pitchwife - Right there with Kath in my morning post and he actually wins the tiebreaker because his vote is a real "not commiting to any bandwaggon" kind of vote, and those look and feel wolf-on-wolf to me--and, of course, my suspicion of Kath reinforces this concern. He's my top suspect, but I probably SHOULDN'T tie his judgement so closely to hers.

Rikae - Rubbed me the wrong way yesterDay, but I don't know why I think that... Just because they disagreed with me?

Sally - Too little data. Completely unscientific, but people with real life issues rarely seem to be Wolves... so my gut feeling says to not worry about for now.

Shasta - I feel like I OUGHT to mistrust Shasta, but I don't.

Thinlómien - I feel less strongly about her Wrongness than she does about mine, but for now I think she's probably Not a Wolf.




So... my wolfpack nominees appear to be Pitch, Kath, Nog?, and a wolf to be uncovered later.


EDIT: X-posted with everyone since Sally in 528.

[A Little Green]

Nog, have some chocolate and come back please. <3

It's getting close to bedtime for me, and since someone has to get the ball rolling, it might as well be me. I feel most comfortable going for

++ Kath

I've said this before - she set Huin up as a suspect (based on reasoning that didn't really hold water, ie. saying Huin probed others without voicing opinions on them himself when he'd done more of that than almost anyone else at that point), left it to take root and then came back and voted for him once others already had. It's consistent in a way that looks choreorgaphed rather than genuine.

My other option was Nog, but I have more reservations about him than Kath at the moment.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formy #267

Pitchwife - Right there with Kath in my morning post and he actually wins the tiebreaker because his vote is a real "not commiting to any bandwaggon" kind of vote, and those look and feel wolf-on-wolf to me--and, of course, my suspicion of Kath reinforces this concern. He's my top suspect, but I probably SHOULDN'T tie his judgement so closely to hers.

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

No, you read it right--though I might have said phrased it backwards. It would be more accurate to what I meant to say that my assessment of Kath should be more independent of the vote for her --but I was writing/thinking of the two of you together and that came out in your section.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I still think Pitch is exactly the Cobbler, although I also thought Huin was the NW, so.

I think Mac is misrepresenting my vote and the reasoning behind it, but I don't know if I think it's intentional or not.

I was honestly a bit surprised to see the Huin-wagon happen, given the state of the thread when I left. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf there; it also wouldn't surprise me if there was one in the set of people decrying his innocence after the wagon was set in motion. Those are the two groups I'll look into when I get time tonight.

[Macalaure]

Greenie - I find myself agreeing with her mostly, but something about her overall tone makes me uneasy.

BG - A wolf wouldn't do the things she's doing, I think.

Brinn - Not much of a read yet, slightly leaning innocent atm.

Form - No read whatsoever.

Kath - I get where Greenie is coming from, but I feel too unsure about it right now. Wait and see.

Legate - Something feels off about him.

Nog - Something feels very off about him.

Nilp - "Mac (by the reasoning Nog and I have advanced)" - you're kidding, right?

Pitch - Still not a fan of his vote yesterDay, but he seems fairly innocent toDay. Another wait and see.

Rikae - Feels fairly innocent.

Sally - Not much to go on yet. Repeats my point that Legate is repeating points. Yet I'm the one with the stones in the glasshouse.

Shasta - Still suspicious because of his behavior yesterDay. Hasn't changed.

Lommy - Feels fairly innocent.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

I didn't spot that, Shasta. Whereabouts was that?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think Mac is misrepresenting my vote and the reasoning behind it, but I don't know if I think it's intentional or not.

Do explain then.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kath

I didn't spot that, Shasta. Whereabouts was that?

Originally Posted by Form

Shasta, Rikae, Nog, and Kath.

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.

Rikae disturbs me, but I don't know why. Just a different vibe/posting style?

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.

Kath seems just a bit off-kilter, but I don't know why. She's the only one of these four that I think a possible cobbler right now.

I'm sensitive to mentions of me () which why I spotted it the first time, but going back to grab it to quote I notice that he said it about Nog as well.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

Hey, I did bat an eye (#243)! I agree a wolf has no need of that (except if you think you can get them lynched or at least put enough pressure on them to force a reveal and confirm your suspicion, but normally you'd just kill them at Night, much less risky). A cobbler might, though, which fits my read on Form since pretty well the beginning of D1.


As for BG, well. I've noticed she seems to rely a lot on stuff other people have said (cf. 'Form as the cobbler because people say he may be'), which is not what we'd usually expect of an innocent, but in her case it's so blatant it may just be her playstyle, so I'm beginning to reconsider how suspicious her piggybacking on Hui's vote actually was.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

No, you read it right--though I might have said phrased it backwards. It would be more accurate to what I meant to say that my assessment of Kath should be more independent of the vote for her --but I was writing/thinking of the two of you together and that came out in your section.

Are you now saying that if I hadn't voted her there and then you wouldn't consider her as wolvish as you do?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Do explain then.

Well, for starters, this -

Originally Posted by Mac

Anyway, votes that struck me suspicious:
Shasta because "I like his answer but I'll vote him anyway". I'd expect an innocent to care a bit more than that.

- is not quite what I said.

Originally Posted by Shasta

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

Huey's answer to me was a good ping, but it didn't outweigh the bad pings I'd had about him throughout the day.

Also note that I was the first real vote of the day (sorry, Nilp) and left the thread completely right after voting.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm sensitive to mentions of me () which why I spotted it the first time, but going back to grab it to quote I notice that he said it about Nog as well.

You're quite right and now you bring it up I think I did notice it when I first read through but missed it when skimming to find where I'd seen something about Gifteds that had bothered me.

So then Form, Nog, Nilp, BG. I sincerely doubt all four of them are wolves. Nilp's comment picked up on what Nog had said, which makes me think he is the more suspicious for it. BG is just ... I mean that whole post was picking out potential Gifteds and that is just a bad idea.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Are you now saying that if I hadn't voted her there and then you wouldn't consider her as wolvish as you do?

Well, yes--it's the whole package and what actually happened that I find suspicious. Take out some of the pieces, and the whole Jenga falls.

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.