Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But, they didn't??? Unless they asked privately?? And it would be far more of a stretch to assume they did than that they didn't, if you ask me. I would have jumped to the same conclusion as Zil did. *side-eyes Nerwen (and Lottie a bit too)*

I was more interested in the defensive tone than the actual slip - I saw the point Nerwen was trying to make, and I didn't know that I for sure bought it, but he acted way more defensively than I would have expected for such a small thing, which was what I picked up on.

I'm headed home from work, but I should be back before DL, so I'm not going to vote yet.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Eönwë - it's maybe not the fairest or best of arguments, but he'd have been a very logical wolf convert pick. Has been markedly guarded toDay and continues to talk about the dead thread which is useful (I really appreciate someone trying to work out a system, I do!) but also conveninetly something else than finding wolves/EW, which is especially bad this late.

I've mostly just been trying to iron out the flaws and make it clear in case I end up dying toDay/toNight.

You do have a point though - I have been thinking a lot more about that than I should be, at the expense of working out who I actually think is suspicious.

edit: whoa, new page! x-ed with a few.

[Nogrod]

Just looking at Eönwe's plan makes me more confident about not even thinking about that kind of a "deal". There's everything to go wrong and be misinterpreted.

Also it ties the hands of people in the Dead thread, making being there totally redundant (there can be situations where it would be more crucial to know someone else's than the "oldest" residents role)- or nauseatingly infuriating when things even can't go like "decided" (like there are several kills at a time and then there is no communication at all as to which one is checked).

Unless the game ends very suddenly and fast, most of us are going to be there and wouldn't you like to play as well after death? The Dead can't pass any reliable information - as facts to be used in proofs -but they see more. And well you'll be there soon too with all your wits and capabilities of organizing things and seeing what is the best for the villagers you have here in the living thread - but then you will be empowered with lots of other stuff as well the living here have no clue.

The reasonable way - to me - would be that the Dead play the game there and sort things out as best they can and then empower a vote for anyone who is to them the most suspicious-looking. And trust me - "been there, done that" - when you get there yourself, you understand what I mean. If the game lasts any longer than a few Days, the actual game will be there, not here.

Okay. End of my rant. Sorry.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now can someone please explain it to me too. I have read it 2 times and I still didn't see Zil saying anything weird.

x/d with the Mod- so the EW and wolves might have had some benefit to going after a possible GW Morsul- except they didn't have this clarification at that time.~Inzil #158

It comes off as Inzil saying he knows for sure the EW and wolves were not aware of the question whether the GW would be revealed if the EW/wolves tried to kill the GW.

Nerwen asks later how Inzil knows this...for myself it's not the possible "slip" itself, but the posts and reactions afterwards.

Inzil 176:

Ahem. Because Kuru just said it toDay?

Inzil 177:

And yes, I know the baddies could have asked Kuru themselves, but I don't think it likely.

Nerwen's response 178:

Actually, I'd have thought it very likely... and you were so certain a moment ago...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Basically, I think it's the bit I bolded below:

Correct, and also his reaction to my pointing it out strikes me as pretty "off". I mean it's not like I immediately started screaming A SLIP A SLIP OH SO EEEEVVIILLLL, but... he almost seems to act like I did.

Edit: x'd since my last.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

Pros (for the side of evil):
- EW-Lottie doesn't get found out as EW as soon.
- Strong wolf presence in the Dead Thread in the form of Boro (with 3 more future potential-wolves to spare!).

It is not so crazy a theory, although would be really bold. The "strong presence in the form of Boro" would make sense in terms of how Boro has been acting here (and I am sure he would be quite a presence), but that is very little to base the whole thing on, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Interesting idea. While we're throwing out ideas that have been (I assume) percolating all Day, I would like to say that out of everyone here, you're the one who feels the most different compared to yesterDay. Also, that you would have been a great candidate to have been turned last Night, since as far as I can tell you were vaguely trusted by a majority of the village - and that killing Morsul offered you pretty good cover. With everyone's eyes on me as the major proponent of the no lynch, your involvement didn't garner any discussion at all. Whereas yesterDay you were at the front of discussion, toDay I feel like you've been trying to blend into the background more.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I agree very much with Lottie about Eönwë. There's something about him that's different, and he would have been a good (but obviously also short-sighted) pick from the EW. I mean picking the villager that is the most widely trusted/ considered reasonable/productive is great if it works but not exactly sneaky. But in this case I wouldn't be surprised... which kinda sucks for Eönwë of course if it's true - imagine being such a good good guy that you're turned evil and then lynched because you were the obvious choice because you were so good?

I wanted to respond to Lottie, but basically Lommy said it pretty well. It is true that yesterDay, he was much more all over the place posting his suggestions. I think Lommy also has a point in that if he really seemed to be trusted, he would be an obvious pick to make a Wolf out of, but exactly the question is if that would have been too obvious. But also upon re-reading his posts, I am not sure if there is such a big difference in his style. He re-posted some of his yesterDay's charts, then he commented here and there on the proceedings. That style does not differ so much in my opinion.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

2. Now, if someone is selected from the first half of the names (which includes the person exactly in the middle), then the person is PREY (to use Kuru's terms), i.e., good, and if they are in the second half, they are a PREDATOR (also Kuru's term), i.e., evil.

Ok, I really don't want to talk about this this little before DL, but just a note - are we sure "prey" and "predator" equal "good" and "evil"? Because if so, why not use such terms. (In other words, like what might e.g. a Ranger, or even more a Hunter identify as. That's a very "predatory" role.)

Ok! Off to finish going through toDay's posts and then I will try to also figure out something sensible out of this and vote.

EDIT: x-ed with some bunch of people somewhere around since my last probably

[Boromir88]

I accidentally hit enter and didn't finish the explanation...

Inzil 180:

Ah. There's Eeevill afoot.

This one in particular just reads as he's trying to sweep it under the table as an innocent/harmless joke.

As I said though, appearances aren't always what they seem.

And then the digging in on the Nerwen vote/suspicions when pressed for why...

So yes, not the possible letting slip to knowing what the EW/wolves knew or didn't know, but just the responses after make it look worse for Inzil.

[Nerwen]

I need to think some more about this Dead Thread situation. Can we make it work?

[Thinlómien]

Okay okay.

Boro and Nerwen, thanks for the clarifications. I actually think Zil looks better not worse because of this. But I also think Nerwen looks a bit more innocent. It starts to look like an innocent-on-innocent spat to me. Argghh.


edit: xed with Boro and Nerwen

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I need to think some more about this Dead Thread situation. Can we make it work?

I think yes, but I also think we should figure that out rather in the first half of toMorrow when people are anyway going to be slow about getting to lynching business, not less than two hours before the deadline (as no one is going to be empowered toDay anyway).

[Nogrod]

What are you (Lommy & Legate) talking about the immediate DL? Isn't in 1 hour and 40 minutes from now, not 40 minutes from now?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I need to think some more about this Dead Thread situation. Can we make it work?

Nope.

Originally Posted by Lommy

not less than two hours before the deadline

Twenty minutes ago you talked about an hour? So over 1½ hours, right?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by nogrod

What are you (Lommy & Legate) talking about the immediate DL? Isn't in 1 hour and 40 minutes from now, not 40 minutes from now?

Yes I messed that up in an earlier post. You're right. It's 3am Finnish time.

I'm gonna vote now, and I became very unsure about Zil/Nerwen, so:

++Eönwe

if you're lynched we will remember your dead thread plans and continue to discuss them!

Good night kids, and remember to avoid cross-voting! We don't want a tie!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What are you (Lommy & Legate) talking about the immediate DL? Isn't in 1 hour and 40 minutes from now, not 40 minutes from now?

Maybe for you sir, who are going to go to sleep at 3 AM as usual I would like to vote soon.

(x-ed with everyone since the quoted post)

[Nerwen]

Hang on, where's this "Eonwe is different toDay = wolf" thing come from? *Is* he different?

[Mithalwen]

I am. A bit creeped by Loslote agreeing with me but my likeliest vote is Inzil for the reasons I gave earlier. However I am not sure I like Eonwe being so bossy over the dead vote. Can anyone reassure me there is no way wolves could bend a preagreed system to their advantage should death stymy their usual communication?

[Nogrod]

I do think the Boro - Lottie cahoots in the end of D1 is a bit of a stretch, but one of them being either the EW or a Wolf is not that far off.

Boro has acted weirdly either just having fun, wishing to play in the Dead thread, sporting as the EW / Wolf or plain counting that being too reckless would in the end stop us from actually lynching him (that there would be enough people not to vote him in the end).

Lottie and Inzil have both been on top of things early D1 on which could be just dedication to the game and taking it seriously (just wishing to know the rules well and giving them and different scenarios a lot of thought beforehand).

Lottie I could see advocating a no-lynch as a baddie just to be on a safe side herself while making show-off -moves near the DL to underline her daring (aka. not having a baddie-role). Zil goes to and fro a bit like Legate but feels a bit less genuine.

Eönwe flip-flops like Lommy of the old times first advocating lynch: "no lynch is a free ride for the wolves" and then making a "Legate 180" and suggesting a no-lynch plan. But then being around ten minutes before the DL he doesn't do anything to affect the vote - so drawing himself away from the issue and not like trying to push for the no-lynch - like he was happy about it?

Okay. Those are probably my top suspects at the moment.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm tempted to give you the benefit of doubt (because why would a baddie self-vote in such dire straits?), but this?? How exactly was my argument "really good and logical"? It was an absolutely standard "trying to be reasonable on Day1 but quite possibly failing because of lack of information" Day1 vote if you ask me. You constantly praising it is weird, and even weirder given it was against yourself. (Or maybe I just can't take a compliment. )

From your D1 vote post, from which I said that halfway convinced me to vote for myself:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Boro seems the most fishy (see: list) so he gets my vote.

I also think innocent Boro would be a reliable dead thread presence and a guilty Boro an entertaining one.

Good night!

An innocent me would make a reliable dead thread presense, a guilty me would be entertaining. I was pretty flattered, but also got to thinking that if I do get turned I could be a rather scary asset for the EW. Then I got to thinking I don't want to be an asset for any wizard. So if I'm going to be carefree, reckless, and completely random...it might as well be at a time early on where it only effects my own fortunes and not at a time that turns the tables against the GW.

Then there's the matter of who we want populating the Dead thread. I did make a rather interesting note of after D1 when I first said you've halfway convinced me to vote for myself, how many other people in making their D1 vote said basically the same "I'm voting Nerwen because if innocent she'd be a good dead innocent.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am. A bit creeped by Loslote agreeing with me but my likeliest vote is Inzil for the reasons I gave earlier. However I am not sure I like Eonwe being so bossy over the dead vote. Can anyone reassure me there is no way wolves could bend a preagreed system to their advantage should death stymy their usual communication?

I think that's what we're all worried about.

Edit: x'd since Mithalwen..

[Lalaith]

Just to clarify, I think everyone has posted properly in game now except for Pervincia? (who has posted but not really participated)?
Right, like the rest of the Europeans I need to vote soon.
I would like to hear more from Shasta and Sally.
So, I would add Lommy at the moment to the list of people I feel ok with. Nogs I could go either way. This new Eonwe bandwaggon I'm not sure about. I'm not so convinced by this "he was turned because he was trusted yesterday" argument, partly because I for one thought his plan weird and cunning-and so-possibly-wolfy. Anyway, I'll leave that one for now.
Uncomfortable, in varying degrees, with Nerwen, Eomer, Boro (reasons stated elsewhere) - also Lottie and Zil - they seem helpful but I'm not feeling it.

[Pervinca Took]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I
Pervencia -
l

Here. But about to succumb to exhaustion.

Can someone tell me the voting deadline in Greenwich Mean Time?

[Lalaith]

Hey, Pervinca, welcome! Deadline is about 1 hour and 15 minutes from now. I am at GMT +1 and it's 23.48 where I am. Deadline is 1 am my time. Hope that helps.

You need to vote for someone you suspect and want to be lynched (if you like!) and highlight it so it comes up red (like I almost didn't remember to do last night ) , with ++ before the name.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am. A bit creeped by Loslote agreeing with me but my likeliest vote is Inzil for the reasons I gave earlier. However I am not sure I like Eonwe being so bossy over the dead vote. Can anyone reassure me there is no way wolves could bend a preagreed system to their advantage should death stymy their usual communication?

Well I think the only way is if there are more wolves in the Dead thread than innocents. The only time I recall the "using the empower vote for dead to send info" really blowing up is when the Living had a set plan and then randomly somehow before the DL changed those plans which left the Dead confused on what to do.

I am intrigued though by Nog's different use of the empower vote as a way for the Dead to put in their collective "advisor" role for the living.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Maybe for you sir, who are going to go to sleep at 3 AM as usual I would like to vote soon.

I was thinking about voting soonish as well and to go to bed...

Originally Posted by Pervinca

Can someone tell me the voting deadline in Greenwich Mean Time?

Exactly 1 hour and 7 minutes from the time stamp of this post.

[Lalaith]

only time I recall the "using the empower vote for dead to send info" really blowing up is when the Living had a set plan and then randomly somehow before the DL changed those plans which left the Dead confused on what to do.

Yes I remember that too. Weirdly I can't remember in which thread I was at the time, dead or alive, but I do remember chaos.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am. A bit creeped by Loslote agreeing with me but my likeliest vote is Inzil for the reasons I gave earlier. However I am not sure I like Eonwe being so bossy over the dead vote. Can anyone reassure me there is no way wolves could bend a preagreed system to their advantage should death stymy their usual communication?

To be honest, I'm not actually as dead-set on it as might appear from my posting. It's just that I seem to be the only one who is actually suggesting some kind of system. I'd hoped that by trying to fully detail it yesterDay, people might actually discuss it and work out what they think about it etc., but other than some vague agreement with the idea and Nogrod's very strong insistence that it's a bad idea, not many seem to have directly engaged with it. Oh well...

In any case, I just like the idea of having some kind of accepted system to fall back on. Obviously things might change over the course of the game, but I imagine Days will be (or at least on the surface appear to be until we actually know roles) relatively uneventful, and it will be good to have something to fall back on at least. And especially in these early Days when we know so little, it would be good to get some kind of steady stream of information (even if limited).


edit: x-ed since Pervinca. Also, that was meant to be 'some Days' (obviously some will be exciting!)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Yes I remember that too. Weirdly I can't remember in which thread I was at the time, dead or alive, but I do remember chaos.

I was definitely in the living thread that time.

[Pervinca Took]

Do I have to give a reason for my vote?

[Nerwen]

So, I've been reading through Eonwe's posts, and I'm not seeing this alleged big shift in playing style between Day One and Day Two.

I'm not saying he couldn't be a baddie hiding behind his "Dead Thread" scheme, but if that's what he's doing he was doing it already.

Edit: x'd with Pervinca.

[Brinniel]

Attempting to catch up. You guys post too much.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pervinca Took

Do I have to give a reason for my vote?

It is considered good form to do so.

Edit: x'd with Brinn.

[Lalaith]

Do I have to give a reason for my vote?

No, not if you don't want to. Most of us do though. Think of it like being on a jury!

[Nogrod]

One thing that still bothers me is Kuru's answer to my question - or the non-answer to it. Or to be more precise, whether it is something one should pay heed to or just shrug and walk away from.

So the question was, whether the EW could play so as to NOT turn someone on the Night1 before the game started, so that we'd play D1 without a single Wolf around, and then turn someone into a Wolf the next Night(2) and also using that Wolf the very same Night to Nightkill someone (aka. Morsul)?

Here's once more his answer (starting with an answer to another question), bolding mine.

Originally Posted by KuruLord

While "everything" is assumed to have happened during a NIGHT phase, this does also implicitly create an order in which things occur. For example, Ranger Pick effectively has to come first in order for the skill to be used at all, then Evil actions, and so on and so forth.

And I'm afraid that is as much of an answer as I can give to Nog's question too.

The answer to that question is baked into the geography of the game.

I know it may be frustrating and seem like I don't understand the question, but I could not possibly answer that particular question. It is part of the game. The most definitive statement I can make is that the game is still going on right now. The Party has not won. Everyone can make of that what they will.

~*~

Originally Posted by Pervinca

Do I have to give a reason for my vote?

It would be appreciated.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, here we go:

Nerwen - aside from the incident with Zil, there wasn't anything that would make me suspect her in any way. Therefore I am probably not going to vote her toDay.
Inziladun - okay, now upon re-reading, his reaction to Nerwen escalated in such a rapid way that it really makes my alarm bells ring. However, all his posting earlier was pretty normal, so I would prefer not to vote him solely on the basis of that one instance.
Loslote - now she has been bringing a lot of stuff to the front, and like I said, seems generally much more vocal than I am used to her being. I am really not into believing that she and Boro would have been two baddies from the start, although we have seen bolder packs. Objectively however, even though she's being vocal and bringing people up as possible suspects and all that, her behavior did not strike me as sinister by itself. I think there isn't enough to make me vote her now, either.
Boromir88 - okay, let's be frank. If there's anyone behaving outright suspiciously, it's him; and that is exactly the problem, because why. His responses regarding yesterDay were satisfactory to me by themselves, but that does not change his behavior as it is. He is probably the one I might consider the most worthy of my vote, just because I have no idea what to do with him and I don't want to give him a pass "because he's so strange that he possibly can't be guilty".
Shastanis Althreduin - is not around? I mean, appeared, but there have been no posts from him now, so... obviously leaving him be for now, although I certainly hope we won't have too many submarines here.
satansaloser2005 - hasn't yet posted enough for me to form an opinion, therefore probably not voting her now.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - he has been poking around. YesterDay, I got generally positive vibe from him, today, he was maybe throwing some suspicion, but also said things I can again agree with and which seem reasonable (like his attitude towards Boro). Not voting him, in any case.
Thinlómien - she has been very active now, and I can agree with many points she brings up. Most of all, I am not getting any feeling of false tones from her posts, which at the moment is probably the main thing I am operating on in regards to her. Therefore no reason to vote her toDay.
Lalaith - is really hard to read for me, I think I need to see more from her. So far, nothing that would make me vote for her, however.
Mithalwen - so far I am not getting any bad vibes from her. She participates in the discussion, I did not see anything that would look especially wolf-y. In any case nothing that would make me think she deserves a vote.
Eönwë - whereas I acknowledge the theory that he would have been a convenient Wolf pick last Night, I also acknowledge that it would have been perhaps too obvious (then again, nobody really thought about it until now), and upon re-read, I don't think his behavior is really different in some significant manner. I am probably not voting him toDay.
Nogrod - good to see him around, though most of his posting was about the Dead thread. I am certainly not voting him toDay, hopefully toMorrow there will also be more things to read from him.
Pervinca Took - probably absent?
Brinniel - also hasn't been around that much, although has posted earlier. Not enough to go with, however.

But that's about it. Will check who I x-posted with (probably a lot) and then finally vote and go to sleep.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Will vote Loslote today, for reasons given previously. Her and Boro have been the only ones causing me raised eyebrows so far. Of course, it's always easier to find something suspicious in someone who's posting plenty.

++LOSLOTE

[satansaloser2005]

So all of the chatter about Dun bothers me more than Dun's own words. My intention at this point is to take a stab at someone in that conversation, though at this point, that's sort of everyone.

In less vague news, my gut reaction is to not trust Lottie.

As one more point, why are we talking about the EW potentially killing his or her own wolf? I fail to see how the wizard could benefit from this in any way. There is a wolf, and the wolf killed Morsul.

[Nogrod]

EDIT: Sorry, didn't make any intro here on what this is all about... Sorry. So this is on Kuru's (non)answer just a few more lines...



The "the Party has not won" made me think first that there was some major positive thing for the village going on - but then after some thought realized that there aren't that many plausible chances for that to be true.

But what looks like it is said there is, that it might have been possible that we had no Wolf on D1 - which would kind of negate all my work on the voting on D1.

Emphasizing the order in which things take place to make events happen looks quite like he is saying that like conjuring up a wolf happens first and then there is the act that the creatures do.

Or it could be read the other way - if these summonings come the last.

Or is he just toying with us and laughing to his dwarven beard whilst seeing us speculating over sich issues?

[Lalaith]

It's annoying, I know that my five main suspects can't possibly all be guilty, but I'm now too tired to go through all the permutations and patterns of who fits in with whom.

Nerwen/Eomer felt like a good fit to me earlier toDay - although that could just be because they were both around and chatting, Boro/Lottie has been mentioned by others and kind of makes sense - and Zil - well, I don't know. I would go with Nerwen again for the sake of consistency but she feels less guilty to me now - I quite like her defence of Eonwe, just now. I think I might go with Eomer instead.
I do suspect Boro quite strongly but I'm not going to vote for him because I suspect him of playing a bit of a scam which I will explain tomorrow if it's still relevant.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hang on, where's this "Eonwe is different toDay = wolf" thing come from? *Is* he different?

Well exactly, upon re-read I think he is not in any significant way.

Originally Posted by Pervinca Took

Do I have to give a reason for my vote?

It would be better because then there is something where we can see why you voted the way you did. Anyway, welcome!

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The "the Party has not won" made me think first that there was some major positive thing for the village going on - but then after some thought realized that there aren't that many plausible chances for that to be true.

But what looks like it is said there is, that it might have been possible that we had no Wolf on D1 - which would kind of negate all my work on the voting on D1.

Emphasizing the order in which things take place to make events happen looks quite like he is saying that like conjuring up a wolf happens first and then there is the act that the creatures do.

Or it could be read the other way - if these summonings come the last.

Or is he just toying with us and laughing to his dwarven beard whilst seeing us speculating over sich issues?

I think you're obsessing too much over this. It could mean anything.

Edit: x'd since Nog.