T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Nerwen]

Now, why Shasta? Did he do anything but IC-posting?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, why Shasta? Did he do anything but IC-posting?

My guess is that's exactly why he was killed. He left almost no trails, which makes for an easy wolf kill.

[A Little Green]

Hmmm - it took me almost two hours to read the rest of Day 1. It seems to have turned out an interesting Day after all, I just slept through all the fun. Just my luck. I have some comments to what was said yesterDay.

A couple of things disturb me about Nog. Not some overall feeling or anything, but some thigns he has said. He makes a big accusing-toned issue about votes being given on feeble grounds in this post. Yes, the votes at that time were feeble-grounded. What he failed to add, however, was the fact that most of those votes he criticises were given early, before anything dramatic actually happened. I don't like the way he just ignores the context of those votes - because taken out of context they do look exceedingly bad but if taken into consideration the material there was to build upon at that point it should not be surprising that votes are made on feeble grounds.

What is even more weird, however, is how he first criticises me for voting Gollum because it's too easy and then does the exact same thing himself. I don't like it.

List coming up. Is there anyone else around or am I talking to myself again? Nerwen, my love, are you there? (I checked the time and realised it's the traditional "me and Nerwen around" time of Day again!)

[Aganzir]

Nog I'm watching you!

It also occurred to me that Shasta's reference to Barliman being under the protection of Water could have been a seer hint, especially as he later claimed being an Aquarius and infused with watery influence. However, he didn't leave behind anything that could be considered a hint to a person he had dreamed of - he barely even mentioned other players, apart from saying Gollum was an ordo who would be on the wrong track for the most of the game, and voting Lommy for voting me.
He didn't look very Frodo-ish either.

Originally Posted by Mira

Didn't she say she had class or something earlier and wouldn't be able to be in the village?

Yeah I guess she did.

Originally Posted by Leggie

you seemed to suggest, or at least not dismiss completely the idea that the RB should stay put. (And, speaking of that, only very later you reevaluated. Perhaps under the general pressure, but before that, you wanted to try anyway?)

Try what? How did I seem to suggest xe should stay put & and then change my mind? I don't think I ever reached any conclusion when talking about the RB. Hmm oh yes I actually did. But I simply don't get what you're aiming at.

Originally Posted by Nog

Interestingly enough Mira has come to argue for her I think twice already...

I think Mira has also been arguing for Fea so I might just put it down on being a newbie & living in the same apartment with them. I'd still like to hear more about her opinions on other players.

Originally Posted by Nog

There were other terrible reasons but saying you make it random is the worst way of trying to ensure you don't have to stand for your vote later.

You're making day 1 random votes a too big issue. If I had voted, say, Gollum or sally, saying I want to lynch a quiet/insubstantial/whatever person in lack of anything better, it would have been okay for you, then? You are fine with killing quiet people because they don't help the village but those lynches are quite as random. Why are you fine with Fea's plans to vote randomly because she finds day ones to be of little worth?

I was really tired after a week of little sleep and seriously considered abstaining from voting but decided against it, just because I'm against it in principle. And to be honest I couldn't care less who was lynched as I didn't have any serious suspects myself.

As for Gollum, I think his posts are always rather bantering, and as there's therefore nothing extraordinary, I don't find it a valid reason to suspect him. It's a valid reason to vote (randomly) for him on day 1, but all the suspicion against him looks rather exaggerated.

I'm quite uncomfortable with the way Nog sticks to random votes being a suspicious thing. Yeah they are maybe not helpful but still.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Lommy didn't say that (at least, not anywhere I can see).

No I simply meant she pointed out the quote. I agreed with ”Something in this phrasing troubles me a little,” and the rest of it was my own thoughts. I didn't intend it to look like I was stealing her words, or putting words into her mouth.

Originally Posted by Lari

Ferny is not a threat at all. Ferny doesn't know the roles of who xe passes on. For all intents and purposes Ferny is just an annoying player.

You're underestimating xem. Xe is a threat once the wraiths and xe know one another's identity. After that xe's practically a seemingly innocent player (as the seer can't find out xyr exact role) who helps them.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While there are reasons to find Aganzir suspicious, starting with her random vote

What reasons?
What's suspicious about random voting?

Rune, I would like to apologise for signing up although I can't be around till deadline.
The quarrel between Rune and Brinn is ridiculous and, despite overreacting, it's not Brinn's fault.

Originally Posted by sally

It's as if she's intentionally trying to take focus off lynching the wraiths.

Erm I started talking about the RB when only a few people had made proper posts. I could accuse you the same way of trying to take focus off lynching the wraiths by bantering at the beginning of the day instead of trying to get things actually rolling.

I don't like the way Gollum was lynched although I admit I see him go rather than the others who had several votes.

[Nerwen]

#9.
IC banter about his ability to read "anything in the stars you desire".

#10.
ditto– asks everyone to state their birth signs.

#13. IC banter with Sally.

#15.(referring to Gollum)

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Clearly here we have a prime example of a closed-minded, unthinking individual who refuses to believe in anything he can't hear, touch, see, smell, or taste. The stars say he's an ordo, but will be on the wrong track most of the game and be lynched Day 5 for his sheer inability to admit he's wrong.

#18. (referring to Durelin)

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Shades can hide
Shadows conceal
Fires haze
Waters dilute
Airs diffuse
Earths shield
and powers collide.

In other words, people who wear mysterious cloaks typically have something to hide. Get her!

#15. Banter with Gollum.

#142.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In response:

Yes, Rikae, I am an Aquarius. The angle of Uranus to Jupiter and the Moon tells us, though, that I'm infused with watery influence, making me an exception to the previous statement.

++Lommy

Yes, I know you're famed for flip-flopping, Lommy dear, but that business of "No, I don't think Aganzir is a wraith, but I'm going to vote her anyway!" is just too much.

So– Shasta talks a lot about his ability to "read the stars". He states that Gollum is innocent (true), that Durelin "has something to hide" and votes Lommy.

Now, is it at all possible our villains thought he was the Seer? It doesn't make sense for a seer to be that definite about three separate people on Day One– but wolves have been known to panic.

Thoughts?

EDIT: X'd with Lily and Aganzir.

[Aganzir]

Oh yes I forgot to mention the read in the stars stuff.
I'm not sure how likely it is that they thought he was the seer. He looks more like a no trace kill. Or then the wolves thought they had nothing to lose as he could have been the seer & he had been quiet.

Greenie you voted for Gollum before his random vote for Brinn, which apparently made Nog very suspicious of him. And as we can see his random vote was so guilty.

[A Little Green]

The list (in no particular order)
Sally - I have no read on her. Something about her made me a little (green) uneasy yesterDay but when I tried to look it up I didn't find it. Frustrating. At least it probably wasn't anything big since I can't find it.
Fea - I'm not alarmed by her yet. (Even though one should always be alarmed by Fea.)
Lari - Securely under my reindeer.
Mira - Likewise.
Lommins - Rings no alarm bells. (I'm just listening to The Anthem by Leonard Cohen and he started singing "Ring the bells that still can ring" just as I wrote that... Thanks Leo.)
Leggings - No bells ring.
Rikae - No bells.
Agan - Gah, I'm clueless. Not leaning to either direction.
Noggy - Hear Jerusalem bells a-ringing! (No good having Coldplay in your head either, apparently.) Yeah, but his vote did make me uneasy. (See above.) The problem is, my gut-feeling says he's innocent but my wit contradicts that... Granted, Nog is smooth as a wolf and I usually don't get a wolf vibe of him even if he's guilty. The bells keep ringing.
Gondie - Seems innocentish this far.
Nerwen - Nothing alarming. No bells.
Runne - Seems innocentish (and has given me quite a many good laughs).
Mac - I don't know.
Menel - No idea.
Dury - Likewise.
Brinn - Seems innocentish to me. (But then, I can never bring myself to suspect her regardless of her role, so that's nothing new.) Well but honestly, I have seen nothing from her that would indicate to her being a wolf. Her reactions to what is being said seem innocent.

Ah, I got the thing about Gollum being both dead and alive. Perhaps miss moddess might edit that?


EDIT: x-ed with Agan, Nerwen and Agan again (My sense of humour is on a holiday today. Pathetic.) Yeah, but nice to see people around! *Waves*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Ah, I got the thing about Gollum being both dead and alive. Perhaps miss moddess might edit that?

Now I get it too. Tell you what, if we get stuck toDay, let's lynch Gollum again so he's really dead. It's bad enough have three wraiths haunting our once-peaceful village, without a half-eaten zombie-Gollum as well!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Noggy --- The problem is, my gut-feeling says he's innocent but my wit contradicts that...

I have exactly the same problem with him.

I'm planning to make a list now, too. Not sure how much time I have now, though, since there's this short RPG we've been planning to complete today, and I might have to leave in an hour (depending on how long it takes one of the players to get up).

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Not sure how much time I have now, though, since there's this short RPG we've been planning to complete today, and I might have to leave in an hour (depending on how long it takes one of the players to get up).

Your player has woken up but she refuses to leave home before she's played some ww.

I'm not surprised to see Gollum lynched, nor that he was innocent. But given how close it was that you lynched me (it was rather weird to read it afterwards, thinking that I was sleeping peacefully while you were plotting to kill me... so nasty of you ) I'm not complaining...

And as for Shasta, I really think they thought him to be the seer. All that astrology-banter and so on, and besides it looks quite clear who he "dreamt" of:

Originally Posted by Shasta of Gollum

The stars say he's an ordo

That's pretty straightforward, and that makes me wonder about Gollum's lynch. I would not be surprised if there was a wolf or a Ferny there voting him, seeing him as Shasta-seer's known innocent...

Okay, now I will return to Day1 and reply to all the quotes I find answering-worhty, and I can look at the Gollum-voters at the same time...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Aganzir The Fanged

Rune, I would like to apologise for signing up although I can't be around till deadline.
The quarrel between Rune and Brinn is ridiculous and, despite overreacting, it's not Brinn's fault.

I never said that you where not allowed to sign up if your RL is realy busy, but you should never use it as an excuse! Nor should you get mad if RL comitment effects your posts and people comment on them, this game is all about judging other peoples post and no matter what happens in RL it is still you who are responsible for what you post.

[Thinlómien]

I wouldn't make too much out of Mira defending Lari and Fea - they're her friends and this is her first game. In fact, I think her defending them rather points at her innocence.

I think Mac's later posts were more innocent than the early ones, and his explanation about the Ferny-thing kind of makes sense. So, for the time being, I'm not overtly worried about him (although, it might be that I'm manipulated to like him because he didn't want me to get lynched ).

Rikae and Legate seem pretty innocent to me too. It's just the overall tone of their posts... they seem like their innocent selves.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I'd think our Frodo would want to have more fun with the role than that. Also, once Frodo is changed, he is on the side of the wraiths. A lynching after he has changed could mean a loss for the wraiths. And why would anyone want to lose?

I think this is the single best point made about Frodo in the whole game. Brinn speaks sense here. Although, along the lines of Nerwen's and Rikae's thoughts, this could very well be a baddie carefully trying to win Frodo over to her side, though... and in that light, this seems awfully defensive:

Originally Posted by Brinn

I wouldn't encourage Frodo to do anything...it's totally up to him on how he wants to play. If he wants to reveal, go ahead. And if he wants to be turned, let's hope we lynch him first. But there's no harm in me saying what I'd personally do if I were in that role...or is there?

I still think you guys overestimate Ferny's and wolves' chances of identifying themselves to each other. They would have to do it out in the open, which means they have to be really careful, which makes it very difficult for them.

I don't get the row between Brinn and Rune. Rune's being unnecessarily nasty to her. But however, I doubt a wolf would be that aggressive. (As for Brinn, I don't think her reactions point to either innocence or guilt.)

~*~

Lastly, if we look at the Gollum lynch as so that the baddies could have thought him to be a known innocent...

Greenie's vote of him doesn't look too sinister. I think had she spotted the stuff, she could have voted Shasta himself just as well.

Then, it becomes more sinister as there now actually is the chance that Gollum may end up lynched. And what does Mr Noggels do?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Gollum looks like an "easy lynch" (like Rune and I think some others as well have alrerady commented) and the question just remains whether that is true or is he once again playing the card that is assumed from his behaviour? Somehow I'm a bit baffled about his activity and tone toDay. Like in his post #90 he says first of Menel and then of Legate and me that "they stay". Like it was under his decision who lives or dies (and not a democratic vote) - and the only one to think that way is the ringwraith's way of thinking... And well many other things, like his continued insistence to set right things said about him and the fervour by which he claims to be the number one poster while actually providing very little indeed but being friendly - which sure is the most wolvish trait there is...

Carefully states the cons against lynching him, but then suddenly starts to give reasons why he could be voted - as if preparing to vote him... I think that's rather fishy. And then later:

Originally Posted by Noogy

Gollum - "*Draws name from hat*"

Comment: Stating that one's vote is random means that you discharge yourself from the responsibilty of making the vote but still you make the vote and thus help lynching someone. Downright awful, undisgraceful, cowardish, irresponsible, worth of lynching on any occasion where you have no better targets!

And the votes after Nogrod's don't seem too bad at all, unless Mac and/or me were wolves.


edit: xed with Rune

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I guess I should talk about Gollum:

I really don't get why people always vote after the same pattern on every day 1, it is getting quite predictable. I can understand why Brinn and Mac votes for Gollum, nobody can be blamed for saving ones own skin. . .but that quite experienced players do it, that pussles me.

Is it because Gollum has some history I am not aware of?

Anyways, it may be that Gollum him self did not leave much of a trail, but pretty much everybody commented on him and that is also a trail of sorts.


oh just a quick note about Frodo: Obviously people can play how they wish, but I always got the impression that Frodo was on our side. This should mean that he does not speculate in shifting sides and such, so Frodo should always act in a way that benifits his current team.

Just like Frodo did not consider letting the wraith stap him in weathertop so that he could becoe a wraith and join Sauron, however it was a risk. . .but not a choice.

Does that make sense? (I guess not)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

It was a rather odd decition making that took place last night. . .

Mac basicly did not wan't to vote for anybody, but especially not Lommy. . .for apparently no reason. He advocates this, but nothing happens until Nerwen shows up and vote for Gollum.

I guess the conclution is that Gollum died because there are people don't feel good about lynching Lommy on day 1.

I cannot say that any of the players stand out as very suspicious, but it was a bit odd. Had it been day 3 one could have slammed them on lack of reasoning, but on day 1 this is what is to be expected.

I will add Nerwen and Rikae to the list of people that is to be watched closely.

(I did like that Mirandir objected to the whole thing, although a wolf could do that as well)

[Aganzir]

Guilty (now this list looks unusual)
Nog. I don't understand why he seems to think Frodo should reveal & be lynched. Or rather, it's the lynching part that I don't understand. If Frodo revealed, why couldn't xe keep living? Nog's suggestion looks evil because it would take one known innocent away for nothing. Also, why point out Dury's ranger impersonation aloud? I simply can't see the sense in it. Makes day 1 votes too big an issue. Also, if we're looking for players who could have killed Shasta, he's probably on top of the list.
Mac. Wondering whether Billy would send in his own name looks like hinting, "Do it!" or "I'll do it!" I feel worse about Nog, though.
Menel. His reason for voting Mac (his list contains mostly Innocents or No Clues - wolf can't turn people's words into anything suspicious) wasn't very good but apart from that I have no idea, and he's on this list because my Neither list would have looked way too long otherwise.

Innocent
Lommy. Pointed out the Mac quote and looks quite innocent overall. She voted for me, though, but I suppose it's just fair given how much headache I've caused her in the past.
Rikae. Her suggestion of Frodo's revealing was better than Nog's and actually made some sense.
Greenie. Looks innocent enough for now. Plus she had some good points against Nog.
Legate amuses me and his arguments look innocent.

Neither
Nerwen. Dunno. She looked more innocent at the beginning and less innocent at the end of the day. I'm keeping an eye on her.
Dury. Innocentish but too little to go on.
sally. Too little to go on.
Lari

Originally Posted by Lari

As for my sign I am a Sagittarius which actually does say a lot more about me than it should.

So going by Shasta's list you're a baddie?
Mira. Pops in randomly to comment on things.
Rune. No idea.
Berry. Innocentish but hasn't left enough of a mark to make it onto the Innocent list.
Fea. I disagree with her on the importance of day 1s but that happens always.
Brinn. Slightly overreactive but otherwise sensible. I don't find her Frodo posts suspicious, just because I can agree with her on most of the things.

Okay I'm leaving now. Back some time later.

[Rikae]

Sally - actually, I didn't retract my vote for Lommy the moment I made it. That would have been weird, though.

Well, I just want to say, now that it's day 2, as far as I'm concerned no one gets a free pass - not the newbies, not Mac, nobody.

(I'm glad of the chance to hear more from you, though.)

I didn't have a good feeling about Nerwen yesterDay, and it only got worse. I think I'll go and take a closer look at her posts toDay. Also, Shasta's death makes Nogrod worth a second look, I'd say.

EDIT: Somehow "crossed with" - or rather, failed to see - the whole page. Eek.

[Macalaure]

In one way Shasta's death is good, because, while it left no trails, its intent is obvious. We don't have to sort out a handful of trails and decide on each whether it means something or not, which usually leads to ten valid, but mutually exclusive conclusions.

I dont believe that the wraiths thought he might be the seer. Gollum, no offense, is not a likely Night1 dream and Lommy and her pack would have to be over-paranoid to think she's been dreamed of. Shasta's astrology-talk must have been obviously enough IC and no hint, I think.

I see these options:

1. The wraiths were under unexpectedly much Day1-pressure and chose a safe kill. this is unlikely, though, since there are better ways to divert attention.
2. The wraiths were under absolutely no pressure and the village was entirely wrong about each candidate. The trail-less kill was chosen to prolong this state.
3. The wraiths are timid by nature and didn't dare to assault anybody who even might leave a track towards them. (In this case, they might even have thought that Shasta was the seer.)
4. The wraiths are sportsmen who thought it was a good idea to keep those alive that talked more and kill those who talked less.

-While Option 1 is possible, I'd like to discard it for now - mostly because that goes along with my suspicions from yesterday (it would more or less mean that both Lommy and Brinn are wraiths).
-Option 2 only means that Lommy and Brinn (and me, of course) are innocent. The wraiths could be anybody else.
-Option 3 leads us, I think, to Lari, Mirandir, and Beregond, for (relative) newbieness, and to Lommy, Brinn, and maybe Lily, for being of a more timid nature. It exonerates villagers who are both daring and dominant, such as Legate, Rikae, Nogrod, and Nerwen.
-Option 4 points to Legate and Nogrod (not saying that everybody else is not sportsmanlike, but those two are most likely to make a point of it).

So much for valid conclusions that are mutually exclusive. That was before came to think about what it actually means.


I will next look whether I can learn anything from the voting and Gollum's death. Maybe I'll have more luck there.

Originally Posted by Rune

I really don't get why people always vote after the same pattern on every day 1, it is getting quite predictable. I can understand why Brinn and Mac votes for Gollum, nobody can be blamed for saving ones own skin. . .but that quite experienced players do it, that pussles me.

What exact pattern do you mean?

Originally Posted by Rune

Mac basicly did not wan't to vote for anybody, but especially not Lommy. . .for apparently no reason.

Lommy was in greater danger of gathering votes than Brinn was, that's why I mentioned her more.

Originally Posted by Rune

He advocates this, but nothing happens until Nerwen shows up and vote for Gollum.

Well, I was in danger of being lynched! Why should I have voted earlier and risked voting the wrong person?

[Lariren Shadow]

I do have to agree with Mirandir's comment on voting yesterday. It seemed really off the way some of them were acting. Mac I can understand, he did it before to save himself. Some of the other votes, well that get's to me.

Nog's assumption that Day 1 votes point to guilt seems weird to me. From what I understand they are a shot in the dark. No evidence, nothing. It just sort of goes from one suspicion to the next until someone gets more votes.

Be back to do a better anaylsis later toDay.

[Nogrod]

So here we go again... I fail in my trial of posting only the minimum and here's thev result... Maybe I should just actually shut my mouth?

But before I do it, I'll say something about those ill-adviced points made by Greenie and Aganzir. Yes I am against self-proclaimed "random-voting". I have been and I will be against it even if you lynch me on Day1 or 2 in every game because of that. And I also think I can claim the moral highgroud there.

Who you vote and why is probably the single most important thing others can look afterwards and base their suspicions on. Yes, there are other things and many times they can prove to be more succesful but still your voting record combined with your reasoning for your votes is a steady and constant source of information. Most importantly the wolves need to fake their real reasons behind their votes while innocents can be honest. And that makes a difference.

Now callling it out aloud that your vote is totally random basically annihilates the thing we should need to see eg. why do you claim to vote like you do. To me it's not a question of a playing-style - which of course everyone is entitled to pick and choose as they wish - but of kind of playing against the spirit of the game or should I say not playing but trying to parasitically sneak outside the discussion which after all is the base of this game in the first place.

So I will continue to suspect and press on those who claim their votes are random. Only when one knows - or there is a high probability - that calling one's vote a random one leads to immediate lynching will that behaviour cease and people start to actually play.

I know I'm a little like Don Quixote here fighting the windmills... I know. But I'll stand tall and die for it if I have to.

What a rant... pffft...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Also, Shasta's death makes Nogrod worth a second look, I'd say.

This idea, shared by Aganzir at least, is just... well, annoying. But it might be a plot made by the wolves and therefore maybe it's good it has been brought forwards. It might serve a purpose after all.

But to be honest it's a ridiculous claim. To those who don't know it, this idea comes from the following history. During the fall I was a wolf in a couple of games and more or less forced my mates in crime to kill silent, non-active, only IC players or "less dangerous" / less "independent-minded" players - whatever you read into those - during the Night (and I have acted on similarish principles as wolf also earlier). But after those few games quite recently it became kind of "talk of he town" - and we indeed lost the last one of those games because of the boldness of our kill-choices - or shared knowledge that if some of the less "threatening"-looking players are killed by Night early in the game then Nogrod is a wolf behind that decision. Now knowing how desperately certain people cling to the first possible reason to find something to suspect or to back their votes with, it would be plain suicidal for me to continue in that manner now that the meme "Noggie always does that" is around.

So rest assured, were I a wolf in this game it would have been fex. Rikae or Legate you would have found dead this morning (assuming neither was a wolf as well of course).


Okay.

I have a mountain of dishes to wash and dinner to prepare before Lommy and Greenie come back. I'll try to post something more constructive or more helpful in relation to the actual wraith-hunt later.

As now I'm having all my alarms ringing for Aganzir because of the way she kind of adds to a fire lit by Greenie, whom I could see as partly justifiedly being annoyed about me pointing out her vote and the grounds for it that early in the game. So point taken Greenie: your vote was early and "nothing" had happened when you voted, but I wouldn't say the same from many other votes I pointed to in that post.

Also I'd say that be on the watch for all the smooth players, those you feel like they're nice and helpful. Those are most likely to be those owning the hands that kill you at Night.


EDIT: X'd with Mac and Lari

[Rikae]

But Nog, so-called "random" votes can be analyzed, too. I don't for a minute assume they're necessarily as random as they say, and failing to give a reason can be innocent enough in some circumstances and incriminating in others, just as pretty much any reasoning given can.

I hope we're not about to see a Agan vs. Nog feud ending in the loss of two innocents. Nog would be rather easy to make a case against. The "I wouldn't do that as a wolf, really, I swear, I mean it" is reaslly no defense at all, but I don't find it incriminating, either. He is a bit paranoid, though.
Certainly the Shasta kill could be an attempt to frame Nog, at least in part, but I'm not so sure the "quiet player dead=Nogwolf" equation is so widely accepted. Maybe that's just because I missed the games where it became so, though.
Agan looks more innocent than not toDay. Her reactions seem pretty reasonable to me.

On another note, perhaps we should just lynch Sally. Every time I read one of her posts, I get stuck in this loop of "She looks so evil! But she's just being Sally! But she looks SOOO evil! But she always looks evil!" - very distracting, at least.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I know I should post, but I don't have anything to say just yet. I don't think I'll be around much today, for RL reasons, but I'd appreciate if you didn't lynch me while I'm gone.

I mean, I'll be around and reading, and getting gut reactions, but I don't really have the time/state of mind necessary to try and view posts objectively.

Therefore: I'll read along, but won't have much to contribute except for this:

I'm never comfortable with lists of possibilities for the personality types of wolves. Because there are always more options. Like yeah, the wolves could all be timid, or they could all be playing timid. Or you might have three really dominant wolves who decide that their only strategy is to be the final survivor, so it's everybody for themselves. Or like, last game the way it ran was that I was ringleader for the first few days, and when I was lynched, everybody knew that the first two Night deaths were on me, so they didn't have any evidence to go on to catch the other wolves, because having one really strong personality can cloud others. There are always other options, and the option that whoever is playing is trying something new.

I mean, your options are good, Mac, but there's no such thing as a totally complete list of 'possibilities' because there are always more options. Unless you're listing possibilities that you, yourself, ran through.

*turns attention back to the library and grad school stuff*

[Beregond]

Mac - I voted for him yesterday as the best of bad choices, but he's seeming more innocent since. Still, keeping him on my suspicious list.
Nogrod - facing finger-pointing, answered well, but I've heard how smooth he can be. Suspicious, but good to have on one's side. As with Mac, I'm realizing.
Greenie - her and Agan are on Nog's case. I don't know who to believe, but if Nog is innocent these two are suspicious...
Agan - ...but she and Greenie have otherwise seemed innocent, more or less, so far.

Brinn - tend to think she's innocent, but not wanting to underestimate
Lommy, Nerwen and Rikae - cautiously labeling them as innocent, but watching. More suspicious because of what others have said.
Sally, Fea, Lari, Mira - not making themselves suspicious
Menel and Durelin - just not much to go on
Rune - seems fairly innocent of being a wolf
Legate - also acting innocent

Having made that list, I'm not really suspicious of anyone, nor am I sure of anyone's innocence. I thought making a list would help. It didn't. Thankfully it's early. Take this as you like: I have a lot of work to do but I'll be reading and will contribute if I feel I have anything to say.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

What exact pattern do you mean?

The pattern I mentioned when Greenie voted Gollum. . . you can go back and rea, if it still obscure then I will be happy to write more on the matter.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Lommy was in greater danger of gathering votes than Brinn was, that's why I mentioned her more.

Was it. . . to me it seems that you underline how little you want to vote Lommy, it simply seems that she must not die.
Obviously neither of us have english as a first language and that may play a part in this.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, I was in danger of being lynched! Why should I have voted earlier and risked voting the wrong person?

You shouldn't, I was just saying how things happened.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So here we go again... I fail in my trial of posting only the minimum and here's thev result... Maybe I should just actually shut my mouth?
i

Yes, please. . .
Actually I am suprised that you made your tactics public, there is always people who can object to such things. Such an action is bound to attract atention and in turn force you to reply.

EDIT: Coss Posted With Beregond

[Macalaure]

Lily -> Gollum - the first vote, looks neither innocent nor suspicious
Lommy -> Aganzir - flip-floppy, but that doesn't mean much. The vote alone is neither suspicious nor innocent either
Gollum -> Brinn
Aganzir -> Lari - why does she vote randomly? She did have suspicions and opinions, yet she discarded them
Legate -> Mac - first real vote of the day
Shasta -> Lommy
Nogrod -> Gollum - it's not that he criticises random votes, that's to be encouraged, but that his choice is limited to it, that's unnecessary
Menel -> Mac - maybe there's a bit of a revenge involved, but his reasons alone are awful
Rune -> Brinn - he is so over the top about her, that he's probably innocent
Fea -> Brinn - giving somebody a third vote for paranoia's sake? suspicious
Mirandir -> Lommy - looks fine to me
Beregond -> Mac - picks up what everybody else is talking about without mentioning it before. Bandwaggonish vote and reason, something a newbie wraith might do.
Durelin -> Lommy - another could be either vote
Sally -> Mac - not as awful as Menel and Beregond, but still
Lari -> Durelin - throws her vote away in order to prevent a double lynch: suspicious
Rikae -> Lommy - the first vote intended to save me, no reason to suspect
Nerwen -> Gollum - if she's a wraith and one of the other candidates is, too, she would have found an easier way to save that one. If she's a wraith and the other candidates are innocent, she could have chosen a player with a bigger name to get rid of. She must've known that her vote would make others follow and that a different vote would have discouraged them. It doesn't seem to fit, so it's probably an innocent vote. Interesting, though, that she does not mention Brinn in her vote post.
Mac -> Gollum
Brinn -> Gollum - had pretty much the same reasons as I did, plus she was annoyed with him
Rikae -> Gollum - she talked about voting him before but only did so after his death was more or less sealed, which is a bit strange

Suspicious vote: Aganzir, Fea
A bit suspicious vote: Nogrod, Menel, Beregond, Lari
Somewhere in the middle: Lily, Lommy, Durelin, Sally, Rikae
Less suspicious vote: Rune, Mirandir, Nerwen, Brinn
Innocent vote: Legate


Nogrod is trying to hide in the open, I see.

Fea, those were only the options that came to my mind, of course. I didn't say that there are no others. Even incomplete lists like these are helpful, though, I think, as long as people don't end up thinking that there are no other ways.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Fea, those were only the options that came to my mind, of course. I didn't say that there are no others. Even incomplete lists like these are helpful, though, I think, as long as people don't end up thinking that there are no other ways.

My only concern is really in line with your last comment: it's very easy to fall into the trap that the listed options are the only options. It would be an easy bad guy trick to list off potential scenarios which people would then be distracted by.

[Rikae]

Mac, you make a good point about Nerwen's vote. When I saw it, I thought it seemed like she was trying to protect someone, but, after all, she couldn't have been trying to protect all three of you.
Mac just told our daughter that I'm 'doof'. I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.
It occurs to me that the baddies may have thought Shasta was Frodo. I thought he might have been hinting at it, after his first post. That's not much help, though, I suppose.
I just realized I forgot Menel was playing. It might behoove me to make a list of my own, so no one slips through the cracks (or sleeps under the reindeer). In a little while.

[Rikae]

Oh yeah, and:

Originally Posted by Mac

Rikae -> Gollum - she talked about voting him before but only did so after his death was more or less sealed, which is a bit strange

How so? It was my only retractable vote, and I didn't want to use it, then have someone else change their vote and I wouldn't be able to react, so I waited until the last minute.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.

This may seem like a silly question, but...

Really?

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac just told our daughter that I'm 'doof'. I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.

I have no idea if you're serious, kidding, or throwing us on a goose-chase, but, hey...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Shasta, you're an Aquarius, correct?

Even showing up as late as I did, I almost had the opportunity to make my point about Mr. Underhill before anyone else, but then Nog had to go and mess it up for me. Eh. Revealing may be the best thing Frodo can do for the village. If we know who he is, as soon as a kill is missed (Frodo is changed) we can lynch him. Also, there is no incentive for a baddie to falsely reveal as Frodo, since changing the real Frodo will get the false Frodo lynched. Maybe he could serve as a known innocent of sorts? Nevertheless, it's up to the ringbearer.

On the other hand, if Bill Ferny doesn't count as a baddie in the head count, he is really no more powerful than a cobbler who has the ability to clue the wolves in to his own identity. This gives us some hope of catching him, as well as the wolves, since, knowing no more than any ordinary villager, the most he can realistically do is use daytime hints in addition to his nighttime messages to help the wolves find him.

By the way, I'm a Pisces (a real one).

EDIT: X'd with the whole page and God only knows what else. By the way, I'm a fan of the gender-neutral pronouns, myself, but since we have a built-in gender for our gifted characters in this game, I went with that.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I think it is a quite reasonable question you ask, Fea.

Originally Posted by Mac

Nerwen -> Gollum - if she's a wraith and one of the other candidates is, too, she would have found an easier way to save that one. If she's a wraith and the other candidates are innocent, she could have chosen a player with a bigger name to get rid of. She must've known that her vote would make others follow and that a different vote would have discouraged them. It doesn't seem to fit, so it's probably an innocent vote.

An easier way?
I thought it was rather easy for her to get the votes rolling. . . and who is it who has a bigger name than Gollum? (You, Brinn or Lommy?)

Anyways I am meeting a friend for pints at the pub soon, so I will leave shortly.

EDIT: Cross Posted With Beregond

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Astrology-Online.com

Traditional Pisces Traits

Imaginative and sensitive
Compassionate and kind
Selfless and unworldly
Intuitive and sympathetic

On the dark side....
Escapist and idealistic
Secretive and vague
Weak-willed and easily led

So... We know you're intuitive and selfless... definitely good seer traits, but you're also secretive, vague, and easily led.

More importantly:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Revealing may be the best thing Frodo can do for the village. If we know who he is, as soon as a kill is missed (Frodo is changed) we can lynch him.

Not necessarily true. A missed kill means more than just that Frodo changed: it could mean that Strider succeeded in protection, that the wraiths didn't get their kill choice in on time, that the wraiths chose not to kill anybody so that we'd think Frodo had changed (or that we'd think the Ranger had succeeded)...

While I won't deny that Frodo revealing might be of some use (until any kill is missed, we would have an Innocent to work with), I think suggesting that a missed kill definitely means we should lynch Frodo is an idea which doesn't consider all possibilities.

Following that, the Ferny comments don't strike any notes with me, and I'm nearly as big a fan of xe as I am of quts.

Quite seriously though, I have lingering suspicion that Rikae just wants my undivided attention since I so blatantly refused to give it to her yesterday when she wanted us to look at Nerwen. Which-

Perhaps when Rikae said "You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post," she actually meant her second Day 1 post in which she said:

Originally Posted by Rikae

About Barry and Andy - I, too, don't like to vote for newbies on Day one. However, I see no reason to assume newbies are innocent, and I will be keeping my eye on you both! I also have no scruples about voting newbies on Day Two.

Mac, that was a clever move you made there, but don't you think it might bring you under unwanted scrutiny?
(Lommy, I don't mean the "this end" thing, which is a pretty common figure of speech, to my eyes).

At the moment Nerwen is tripping my reindeer.... I think I'll refrain from saying more for the moment. Anyone care to make a guess?

EDIT: X'd with Lommy and fixed a stupid typo. One too many "o"s in "to". I can't leave it that way, it makes my eyes burn .

Bolding mine.

So if she meant her second post, she hints that she knows more about Mac than a typical ordo would, and her comment about Nerwen suggests - again - that there's a reason she's being vague, but that people should pay attention.

Like I said, though, I'm tempted to guess Rikae's just playing with us. Which is a dangerous thing indeed for an innocent player to be doing.

So, Rik, like I said... Were you serious?

Or just playing?

[Beregond]

I don't think Rikae is being serious - if she were the seer, what profit from coming out at this point - assuming people believed her and voted Mac off, and he were a wraith, Rikae would be gone in the night. Doesn't seem worth it, yet.

If she believed it worth the risk, was the seer, and wanted people to believe her, would she justify her statement like she did? But then...why point to her first post?


So if she's really the seer, would it be worth coming out with it now?

If she's not the seer, but is innocent, how would that help us?

If she's a wraith, maybe she's trying to deflect attention, or simply stir things up a bit.


*reads Fea's post*

Good catch on the second post, Fea, that makes more sense. Although you seem to indicate that Rikae knew about both Mac and Nerwen - I didn't think the seer would know of more than one player at a time?


Anyway, it's given us something to talk about.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Beregond

Although you seem to indicate that Rikae knew about both Mac and Nerwen - I didn't think the seer would know of more than one player at a time?

Yeah, I noticed that...

Also what tips me off is that if Nerwen is a wraith and Rikae was so obvious, why did Shasta die in the night?

What might have happened, and I'm just hypothesizing here, is that Rikae dreamed of Nerwen first and then dreamed of Mac last night, pegged two baddies (though not necessarily two wraiths)...

Honestly though, I still think she's just trying to stir up conversation. Otherwise I feel like she'd either be more or less specific with her comments.

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Yeah, I noticed that...

Also what tips me off is that if Nerwen is a wraith and Rikae was so obvious, why did Shasta die in the night?

What might have happened, and I'm just hypothesizing here, is that Rikae dreamed of Nerwen first and then dreamed of Mac last night, pegged two baddies (though not necessarily two wraiths)...

Honestly though, I still think she's just trying to stir up conversation. Otherwise I feel like she'd either be more or less specific with her comments.

I don't know that Rikae was so obvious.
Indeed from her statements, if she were the seer, it seems she suspected Mac day 1, didn't want to vote him off until last night when she dreamed of him, and now is revealing his identity.

But like you say it could be a red herring, or just in fun. Still, if that is true it's a strange statement as it doesn't help innocents much, does it?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Noggyns

Only when one knows - or there is a high probability - that calling one's vote a random one leads to immediate lynching will that behaviour cease and people start to actually play.

Okay this is a valid point. However, you certainly overreacted, given that it was only day one, and that's what I find suspicious. You were trying to cast suspicion on Gollum and me rather fiercely.

Originally Posted by Nogz

I'm having all my alarms ringing for Aganzir because of the way she kind of adds to a fire lit by Greenie

That is because I found the things she criticized you of suspicious. Greenie voted early. Lommy explains a lot, and what's bad in voting me if she thinks I might be Billy/Frodo? The first sensible vote looks like it could also have been cast by a wolf. Shasta's vote is the only one you actually had good points against, but he's dead and innocent.
Besides, isn't this a bit too strong reaction?

Comment: Stating that one's vote is random means that you discharge yourself from the responsibilty of making the vote but still you make the vote and thus help lynching someone. Downright awful, undisgraceful, cowardish, irresponsible, worth of lynching on any occasion where you have no better targets!

Stating something like that makes it look like you were really really suspicious of us, and other people who weren't sure about their suspects might easily have fallen into the trap and voted us. Gollum got voted though that wasn't only because of your dislike of random votes.
That's just such an easy way to cast suspicion, and when we were killed and found innocent, you could explain everything with your high morals, saying it was us, not you, who were responsible for our deaths.

Granted, (forgot to mention this in my summary although I was planning to) it was 4 am when you posted that, and your most suspicious posts came very late, which might explain something. But it doesn't change the fact that I don't like your points.

Originally Posted by Mac

Aganzir -> Lari - why does she vote randomly? She did have suspicions and opinions, yet she discarded them

Because I didn't want to vote for you on day 1 after last game. It would have felt way too unfair. Especially if you're innocent.
Another reason was that my brain wasn't working properly anymore. I just couldn't think of anything and thought, all the same, I don't care, ++Lari.

Originally Posted by Rikae

It occurs to me that the baddies may have thought Shasta was Frodo. I thought he might have been hinting at it, after his first post.

Why?

If Rikae had a seer hint in her first post, it was probably this:

By the way, I'm a Pisces (a real one).

I noticed it already yesterday, as well as some other funny comments. After all, Shasta said the seer was under the protection of Water, and Rikae started her post by addressing Shasta. However I think she is most likely not being serious. At least the wolves have something to think about now. Or, if she's a wolf, she might be fishing for reactions to find out the real seer.

Hey Kitanna, will it be told in the narration if Frodo is turned? Knowing this would make speculating about when/if Frodo should reveal a lot easier.

Also, I don't think this indicates anything but I want to say it aloud. I was a wolf long ago (and there were two wolf teams who didn't know each other), and one day Fea came and said, "By the way, last night I had a dream tgwbs was a werewolf." I was like, "What!? Is she serious? Is she the seer? How should I react? Eek!" and everybody else just kept ignoring her comment... Because they realised it wasn't in-game.
Now when I saw Rikae's comment I didn't pay it a second thought and was a bit surprised when people started actually reacting to it.

edit: xed with Fea & Berry

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Why?

Oh scratch that, I just remembered Aquarius is an Air sign, not Water.

[Brinniel]

Sally: Her first several posts are banter, but it's her posts at the end of the Day that make me slightly uneasy. Her opinions on players seem non-committed.

Fea: I don't like her voting yesterDay, particularly the timing of it. Of course maybe I'm just biased because the vote was for me, but I still think the placement looks bad.

Lariren: Her vote might've been a throwaway, but I actually don't find it all that suspicious. Nothing about her jumps out to me, however I am wary since she did play a brilliant wolf last game.

Mirandir: Has made a decent number of posts, but they are all short containing only a couple of lines. I really would like to hear more from her.

Lommy: Her posts are quite sensible so far and I think she looks rather innocentish.

Legate: Seems sensible, but careful. I've also learned a sensible Legate, can mean an evil Legate. Nothing particularly suspicious about him at the moment, however I would like to keep my eye on him.

Rikae: Looks to be her bold self as usual. Doesn't necessarily point to either guilt or innocence.

Aganzir: Is a big question mark to me. I go back and forth on her with each post. I admit I don't find her an easy person to trust, therefore I can't help but feel the need to watch out for her.

Nogrod: Contrary to what others have been saying, I think he looks more innocentish than guilty. He's not as smooth as he can be when a wolf and I somehow doubt he would experiment with a new playing style if he were evil. And toDay his reaction to being suspected looked rather honest.

Beregond: How many nicknames does this poor guy have? I see some newbie-ish behaviour, but overall I think he's doing well for his first game. And I certainly won't underestimate the possibility of a newbie being a wraith.

Nerwen: I don't like how she suddenly jumped in with her vote, it looks a bit fishy. But otherwise her posts don't exactly stand out as terribly suspicious. I will keep an eye on her.

Rune: Of course I don't like how he's attacked me, but he's always had this negative attitude towards me and while yesterDay it was more intense than I ever recall it being, I don't think it necessarily points to guilt. If anything, it's more likely innocent behaviour, but then again I've never seen Rune play a wolf so I honestly don't know how he would behave as one.

Mac: Yes, his Ferny comment did look rather odd, but I don't think that's enough reason alone to seriously suspect him. And his other posts don't look all that suspicious to me.

Menel: Has made the least amount of posts so far. Where is he?

Durelin: So far her posts look innocent and sincere. But I would like to see more of her.

Greenie: Her posts toDay seem suspiciously careful and well thought out, which worries me.

The List:

Suspicious
Sally
Fea
Greenie

Watching
Legate
Nerwen
Aganzir

No Clue
Lari
Mira
Rikae
Beregond
Mac
Menel

Innocent
Lommy
Nogrod
Durelin

(Okay, I was in the middle of writing this post when the whole Rikae thing came up. I'm not sure what to make of all this, but I thought she was just joking. Was she not? )

EDIT: X-ed with Agan

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

(Okay, I was in the middle of writing this post when the whole Rikae thing came up. I'm not sure what to make of all this, but I thought she was just joking. Was she not? )

I think she was joking, but I had nothing better to do than pretend she was serious and see what I could dig up with that assumption.

[Thinlómien]

Okay now this is surely interesting... I was looking at Rikae's words in disbelief - because, would a seer reveal in that manner? I mean, I would assume Barliman to make a bigger show of himself, but on the other hand, I think Rikae has been making "by the way" statements like this before... which would make me inclined to believe her claim.

Oh, holy cow, I just realised something. Rikae is either the seer or then she's a really twisted person with an ingenious plot, but I'm not sure if I should explain that plot of hers aloud, because I might do something horrible if I draw her plans out in the open...

Anyway, I'd like to her more from Rikae before talking much more. I don't know if talking about her makes sense before she comes back. I'm torn, I cannot decide which one is more believable, my horrid scenario or her really being the seer (logically, I'd love to trust her but since coming up with the scenario, I cannot get it out of my mind), and of course the possibility remains she's just joking...

So I'll talk about something else for a while..

Mac, I'm offended. I'm not timid! I'm really not. I grant you that I overreact to suspicion against me when I'm a wolf and thus might be inclined to make safe kills, yes, but decent packmates would keep me from making such mistakes (you can see this if you compare my behaviour in the game where I was wolves with xyzzy and in the one I was wolves with tp). Also, I would put myself to the sportsmanship category. *grumblegrumble* Okay, that was maybe a slightly unnecessary personal rant but I felt mischaracterised.

But really what's all this "Noggie would have killed Shasta" stuff? Why Shasta? Why not someone else silentish by that logic? And more importantly, like Nog himself said, I think he'd be really stupid to do that after the few last games. I still think Shasta was killed because of looking like a seer (and that theory does not exonerate Nog, of course, unlike the safe-kill theory almost would).

I hope Rikae comes back soon.


edit: xed with 2xAgan, 1xBrinn & 1xFea

[Macalaure]

Rikae is most probably joking because nobody's paying attention to her. Or maybe she's Bill, but I don't think so. It might be interesting to see the reactions to her claim, just as long as the real seer doesn't lose his nerves - or people get the idea to trust her and lynch me!

Originally Posted by Rune

An easier way?

Of course. Voting one of the two (or the one) who was ahead of Gollum and not a wraith.

Originally Posted by Rune

and who is it who has a bigger name than Gollum? (You, Brinn or Lommy?)

Ok, it was maybe not nice of me to say that. It's true, however, that people have built up reputations in all the games they've played, and that people often shy away from lynching someone with a higher reputation, if only by the number of games played, when they have no real reason to. All of us three have played more games than Gollum and had more successes (more defeats, too, but those are usually forgotten quickly).

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because I didn't want to vote for you on day 1 after last game. It would have felt way too unfair. Especially if you're innocent.
Another reason was that my brain wasn't working properly anymore. I just couldn't think of anything and thought, all the same, I don't care, ++Lari.

I'll buy that - for now. Firstly, because I don't want to be ungrateful, second, because it looks honest enough. Your brain must've really shut down if it wasn't able to come up with anything anymore, though.


---crossed since Aganzir