Game thread - Werewolf C - The Father Christmas Murders

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

Well, I don't know. A lot of it seems to have been based on feel. No one really mentioned Cabbie's early post as a part of the basis of their suspicion of me.

I didn't explain that very well. I mean it looks to me like the kind of thing that can arise when people, either with sinister motives, or just in a hurry, skim the thread and notice "hmmn, well, x suspects y... hey, looks like y could be a good person to suspect..."

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I didn't explain that very well. I mean it looks to me like the kind of thing that can arise when people, either with sinister motives, or just in a hurry, skim the thread and notice "hmmn, well, x suspects y... hey, looks like y could be a good person to suspect..."

Ah. In that case it's quite possible.

In reality, all that would have taken to make me suspicious was overacting the cobbler role, but if that is the case I would wonder why no one considered the connection I was trying to establish with Legate. I was only intending to be cobblerish only when talking to him, not in regards to any other issues.

[Coppermirror]

Wow, with what's been going on in the last few posts, that changes things a bit. Finally something really interesting has happened!

So I'm going to go ahead and post my incomplete list of suspicions and do the rest in a bit, otherwise it's all going to be 100% out of date by the time I finish writing.

Sally - Had one post including well-reasoned analysis, but has posted very little aside from that. She's said she'll be posting later with a suspicions list, which is good. On the basis of her posts so far I'm not very concerned about her.

Shasta - I'm on the fence about Shasta. I've seen an innocent Shasta and a guilty Shasta before, but in this game I've been unable to draw a conclusion so far about which he's acting most like. I really need to see more posts from him.

Morsul- Not particularly worried about Morsul, although he doesn't seem to have been posting a lot, and that makes him much harder to analyse.

Nerwen- Going by gut feelings about her tone, and having seen a few more posts from her, my concerns have lessened a bit. I'm not getting especially suspicious vibes from her, and her arguments are mostly hanging together. (Then again, if she were guilty my impression is that she'd probably make coherent arguments too.)

But looking through her posts toDay one by one, I see there hasn't been a huge amount of content (proviso: this has not exactly been Super Content Day for anyone). She addresses a number of points about my posts in reasonable depth, and considers McCaber, but there's not a lot of discussion about other people to consider, and that makes her a lot harder to judge. She said she'd be back later with more thoughts, though.

G55 - One of the most active players. Posted a gut suspicions list and voted for Legate. Overall, I was suspicious of her early on Day 1, but thought as the Day progressed that her gut suspicions looked genuine, so I decided not to vote for her.

ToDay, overall, she looked a bit erratic at times, most notably in post #185, and seemed a bit worked up.

And with G55's latest post, that knocks most previous views of her out of the water.

At first glance I'm actually inclined to believe her. But even if she's an ordo as claimed, it doesn't necessarily follow that she's correct and that Legate is a wolf. I'm going to think this over.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And how is G55 supposed to answer that? "Yes, I am so!"? Really, that looks like a very calculating post, and does not make me think better of you, Cop.

At the risk of making your suspicions about self-consciousness from me worse, I'll respond to this.

Of course my post was calculating. I wanted more information from G55. How would she respond to it? And her response was useful for me, both in her tone and in her mention of previous occasions.

In particular, Legate had been saying that G55's conduct was strange in her last few posts before his vote for her. And really, post #185 looked a little odd, as if G55 was saying she was the Cobbler. She ended up not addressing that point in her reply to me.

And now with G55's big statement...G55 playing a pretend-Seer and pretend-Cobbler so far actually does fit pretty well with things so far. Boro thought he saw something either good or bad going on with me, G55 and Legate. Maybe it was fake Seer-hints from G55 implicating Legate that he saw, and me coincidentally backing off from G55 around then?

ToDay when I brought up what Boro had said, G55 answered a little oddly, saying that Boro hadn't been sure whether it was good or bad.

So...I think I'll believe G55 toDay. But that doesn't mean I'll vote for Legate just like that. I'm going to go now to look through Legate's posts to see if I can see the dynamic that G55 claims is there.

Edit: cross-posted with all of this page so far.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by McCaber

After getting off of work and doing some rereading, I have to rescind my accusations of G55. I misremembered what happened yesterDay and didn't do enough study on the holidays.

Legate, on the other hand, only gets worse while looking back. He jumped all over Boro yesterDay and really didn't do that good of a job explaining himself. I didn't want to believe it, but he looked like a wolf confident that he could get rid of a tough enemy early on a weak case.

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I am an Ordo.

On Day One I thought I'd make myself look like the Seer, so as to distract the wolves the following Night. However, all my suspicions have been genuine and very true. I have indeed suspected Legate based on feel. And I do believe I was the target last Night for that very reason.

ToDay, based on that belief (and, objectively speaking, I was the most Seerish looking person around), I decided to play Cobbler and try to get a reaction from Legate.

Now, I have considered the possibility that, assuming the wolves targeted me, they have done so to lead everyone down a false trail. However, at the same time, the wolves would not want to waste a kill on a person who is likely to be protected, so I think they would have come up with a better option if they weren't desperate. Get what I'm sayiing?

From the time you first brought up looking for information on the Night-kill, my issue has been that you had no way to know who was the intended target unless you were a wolf or the Ranger. I couldn't see the Ranger saying things like that.

But now..would a wolf try this? The Cobbler might, but why?

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Don't trust:
Legate
Dun

Shifty:
Cop
McCaber

Unconcerned at present:
Lommie
Gal
Morsul
Nerwen

Will not vote toDay:
Shasta
Steve


The top two categories are open for business.

Reasons for these?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

ToDay when I brought up what Boro had said, G55 answered a little oddly, saying that Boro hadn't been sure whether it was good or bad.

Which he indeed wasn't:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For instance, think I'm blind to the fact Legate, Copper, and G55 are up to something...but whether that be good or bad I can't quite determine yet. But given enough time, usually you can tell soon enough.

Though you are probably right about what he was referring to... unless he has somehow swapped accounts with Shasta.

Edit: xed with Zil

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

At the risk of making your suspicions about self-consciousness from me worse, I'll respond to this.

Of course my post was calculating. I wanted more information from G55. How would she respond to it? And her response was useful for me, both in her tone and in her mention of previous occasions.

It actually is, yes– but you see that really surprised me, because it's hard to defend oneself against something as vague as "feels wrong" or "not posting like her usual self". I may have mistaken your intention there, but I thought you might be setting her up to make an ineffectual defence that would then give you an excuse to lynch her.

EDIT: X'd since Coppermirror at #203.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

From the time you first brought up looking for information on the Night-kill, my issue has been that you had no way to know who was the intended target unless you were a wolf or the Ranger. I couldn't see the Ranger saying things like that.

Well, or a person who looks at things objectively and ask themselves if it's a coincidence that the Ranger and the wolves targeted the same person.

Of course it could be - in which case all my theories collapse and you can lynch me all you want toMorrow. But how likely?

Once again, standing in the wolves' shoes, if you have a choice between equally appealing dinner, you would avoid the one that is the most likely to be protected by the Ranger. Unless you're pretty desperate to kill that person, so that you would go for them even at great risk of wasting a kill and giving the Ranger an innocent.

I agree, it could be a coincidence. But the wolves are smarter than that. And, realistically, what's the likelihood?

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[McCaber]

Votes:
Morsul --> McCaber (1)
Lommy --> G55 (1)
Legate --> G55 (2)
G55 --> Legate (1)

Yet to vote:
sally
Nerwen
Shasta
CM
Eonwe
Inzil
McCaber

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

On behalf of Cabbie, I would say that the timing wasn't really up to him, in the same way that it wasn't up to Morsul when he had to vote early. It's one thing if you post continuously during the Day and pick a convenient moment to switch sides, and if you just didn't have computer access most of the Day and come back to a different situation.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On behalf of Cabbie, I would say that the timing wasn't really up to him, in the same way that it wasn't up to Morsul when he had to vote early. It's one thing if you post continuously during the Day and pick a convenient moment to switch sides, and if you just didn't have computer access most of the Day and come back to a different situation.

I'd simply been leaning toward an evil you, and all this needs digesting.

[Inziladun]

Ok. Know what? I can't see a wolf doing this. A Cobbler might, but I don't see a motive for it. A Cobbler would be happy to take one for the wolves. What the heck.

++Legate

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

I thought that too, but one of the votes came from an already-suspicious-looking Legate probably trying to move some of the heat off of himself.

EDIT: x'd with Inzil

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well, or a person who looks at things objectively and ask themselves if it's a coincidence that the Ranger and the wolves targeted the same person.

Of course it could be - in which case all my theories collapse and you can lynch me all you want toMorrow. But how likely?

Once again, standing in the wolves' shoes, if you have a choice between equally appealing dinner, you would avoid the one that is the most likely to be protected by the Ranger. Unless you're pretty desperate to kill that person, so that you would go for them even at great risk of wasting a kill and giving the Ranger an innocent.

I agree, it could be a coincidence. But the wolves are smarter than that. And, realistically, what's the likelihood?

Not great– but a bit higher than usual in this particular village, simply because of the low numbers. You do have to factor that in.

EDIT:X'd since G55.

[Inziladun]

I may regret that vote, but that's an awfully convoluted defense from an evil G55. If you're a wolf, hats off.

[McCaber]

Now I look like a bandwagoner, but he genuinely looks the most suspicious.

++Legate

If we're wrong, at least we'll have some solid leads on where to go toMorrow.



(Also, highlight is really fun to type. I don't know why I never noticed that before.)

[Coppermirror]

I've finished looking through the G55 and Legate posts until now, and as a result I'm pretty suspicious of Legate. I intend to vote for him, but I won't place it yet.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My post was about half done when I got dragged away to the grocery store. I'll finish it when I get home (posting this from my phone) but as of right now I'm suspicious of Eonwe and, if the current trend is that G55 is showing signs of cobblery, then I'm even more suspicious.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Lots of Legate voting going on. It's really almost unanimous, actually, which raises my hackles a bit.

[satansaloser2005]

I keep dozing off. Best vote now just in case.

++Legate

Of the two in my top category, I'm much more suspicious of Legate. I currently think Cop and McCaber are more cobbler material, so I'd rather stick to what I think is real guilt. I wouldn't protest to a Steve lynch, I suppose, but I think Legate is a bigger threat (and would also give us more information than a Steve lynch would at this stage).

I may hang around. I may end up unconscious. I guess we'll see.


EDIT: x'd with two Shastas

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by me

I wouldn't protest to a Steve lynch, I suppose....

Steve's approach to Legate (see my #125) is, well, just downright unsettling. Other than that, I have no real read on him, so that's where that's coming from.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lots of Legate voting going on. It's really almost unanimous, actually, which raises my hackles a bit.

Yes, my jewel, it seems to have swung from a G55-waggon to a Legate-wagon. And the thing is– well, it's true G55 did put up a good defence, but even if you believe her, it doesn't mean she's right.

EDIT:X'd with 2 Sallys.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And the thing is– well, it's true G55 did put up a good defence, but even if you believe her, it doesn't mean she's right.

Well, G55 was likely going to be my vote toDay, and since I couldn't see her being a wolf after what she said (she's opened herself wide to the Seer in any case), I thought it was worth a try.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

We have half an hour till DL, right? I'm still finishing my post.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Day 2

Cop at #117. I have no issues with the fact that she apparently wrote up a post overNight; as I recall, she's done that before. I have a slight issue with this -

Originally Posted by Cop

A pity that we lost Boro. Given our odds, it was quite likely that we'd lose an innocent yesterDay, so we can at least be happy that we lost an ordo rather than a gifted. But it really sucks, because Boro looked innocent and was being useful. He was actively participating and even suggesting new ways for people to discuss things.

- not that she thinks it's a "pity we lost Boro, but that she thinks "Boro looked innocent". This sentence has a bit of subtle... I don't know, call it "distancing", call it "crocodile tears". Something. Almost like a reprimand. "How could you have lynched Boro, he was obviously innocent", et cetera.

I do feel she has a point about McCaber here -

Originally Posted by Cop

Something that jumps out at me is that McCaber Tim has been very quiet for someone who decided to vote for someone based on a lack of posting and contributions. McCaber, why didn't you offer any analysis towards the end of the Day? You suggested “Maybe we should look for someone saying "I'm the Cobbler wolves please don't kill me" but you offered very little of substance at all, aside from that, and in fact most of your posts were about how you were going to vote for somebody quiet. I find it suspicious.

- I tend to agree with this, and I think I'll probably make McCaber someone I look at today.

McCaber at #118. Typically concise post, tags Sally and Eonwe together as possible packmates and raises a question about G55 -

Originally Posted by McCaber

Going just off voting records, G55 is looking rather suspicious throwing in a meaningless vote for someone which no chance of getting lynched, which is usually a good way for a wolfpack to not look united.

Was this ever responded to? I feel like this is a good point.

Eonwe at #120 stands out as being the most jumpy person thus far -

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Shouldn't you also be considering Zil? He also had two votes by then.

In response to McCaber.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

She could have potentially got Legate lynched if Zil and Shasta had been on board.

In response to the point about G55's vote.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Isn't it bad form to make such a comment?

In response to McCaber mentioning he only realized the game started three hours before deadline. So, he defends G55 and himself here rather quickly, considering, and does a bit of strawmanning on the person bringing up the points. Hmm. I may move Eonwe up my suspicion list, depending on how I feel about G55 after this post is through.

G55 at #122 - the infamous "nightkill" post. While I tend to be all for whatever analysis a player cares to make, I have to agree with Inzil that I don't see much point in speculating about the target of a nightkill that didn't happen. I believe Inzil said something about unhelpful helpfulness... Oh dear, I'm agreeing with Inzil again.

Sally at #125 makes her first serious post of the game. She appears to suspect Legate, Inzil, Cop, and possibly Eonwe, if I'm reading her post correctly. I'd be interested in knowing where she's at on these four now.

Morsul at #128 -

Originally Posted by Morsul

So vte based on her participation looks odd to me safe Sally won't be lynched but not contributing to the innocent Boro lynch

- continuing a line of thought where he suspects McCaber (and Inzil, but only for his suspicion of Cop, apparently.) I don't really understand this - do you have a reason to believe McCaber would not want to lynch Sally?

Clarification here -

Originally Posted by Morsul

Voting you ver BORO also allowed McCab to not be part of the innocent's lynch putting him less in the sptlight.

Still, there were much better options for a "safe vote" considering Sally's precarious position in the lynch order yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Cop

Basically, I considered whether what Nerwen said in that post could have been a potential Seer hint and decided it wasn't, but that it might be a wolf or cobbler trying to make themselves look that way. Because I'd decided it wasn't likely to be a genuine Seer hint, I didn't worry about saying so. See, the rest of what I was going on to say was that Nerwen's statement could have been "a wolf or Cobbler trying to look a little Seer-ish". The possibility of what she said being a Seer looking Seer-ish would have been implicit in that, even if I hadn't said I'd considered it (and decided it couldn't be).

I do find it a bit perturbing that anyone took that as actual speculation seeking out the Seer/a hint for wolves. I was aware that there's a taboo for obvious reasons on mentioning Seer-hints one thinks one's found, but didn't realise that it went as far as mentioning things that have been considered and basically discarded as a possibility (but which are still relevant to the discussion), to the point where people would rephrase that as "oh, I think [living player] might be giving seer hints" as you just have and which Nerwen did before (as "Hey, wolves, look what I found!"). I would find that sort of rephrasing suspicious of itself, but a few more people seemed to think the point was fair. Looks as if I've misjudged the level of paranoia for that element of the game.

A good rule of thumb is just to never mention Seer hints until absolutely necessary. Mostly because it's hard to say that something is not a Seer hint, considering the inventiveness of past Seers.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Have a sugar-plum, my dear, and let me explain something. You may not think we of Fairyland know very much about footwear manufacture– but please remember the Shoemaker and the Elves.

Most amusing post of the game thus far, my heart.

Legate at #156 explains his vote for Boro and suspicion of Cop. I'm fine with the explanation for Boro, but his suspicion of Cop falls flat for reasons I think I've already mentioned (how Cop types up posts during Night no matter her role).

Cop at #157 - yes, I crossed with Inzil when I voted. Thinks about a Legate/Eonwe pack, finds possibility unlikely.

I'm going to cut this post off here so people at least get a chance to read it before DL. I'll finish it tomorrow if I'm alive.

[Morsul the Dark]

Just and observation.

Copper and Legate seem to be doing to the lion's share of work. I'm willing to bet one of them is a Wlf trying to look helpful.

I promise to be more active should I survive until Friday that's my day off...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, G55 was likely going to be my vote toDay, and since I couldn't see her being a wolf after what she said (she's opened herself wide to the Seer in any case), I thought it was worth a try.

So... your reasoning for voting for Legate is... "worth a shot"? Duly noted.

[Loslote]

DL is in an hour.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -

"Roger, wolf tower."

[Coppermirror]

A list of suspicions towards the end of the Day. I think these are a good idea for people to do. Of course, my suspicions are likely to change a lot depending on the outcome of toDay's voting.

Not especially suspicious:
Morsul
Sally

Vaguely suspicious:
Nerwen
Shasta

Reasonably suspicious:
Thinlomien
Eonwe
Inzil
McCaber

Really suspicious:
Legate

Either an ordo or a very elaborate Cobbler:
G55. I don't believe it's possible for her to be a wolf, based on what we found out to Day.

I see there have been a few posts since I wrote this, so I'll look at those before placing my vote.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -

"Roger, wolf tower."

If G55 is the cobbler 159 seems to say "Nthing to see here mve along move along" Now of course the cobbler doesn't know the wolves but 159 seems to protect Copper

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

If G55 is the cobbler 159 seems to say "Nthing to see here mve along move along" Now of course the cobbler doesn't know the wolves but 159 seems to protect Copper

I was talking more about the way G55 seemed to be specifically, deliberately talking to Legate, actually.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Day 2

Morsul at #128 -

- continuing a line of thought where he suspects McCaber (and Inzil, but only for his suspicion of Cop, apparently.) I don't really understand this - do you have a reason to believe McCaber would not want to lynch Sally?

Clarification here -

Still, there were much better options for a "safe vote" considering Sally's precarious position in the lynch order yesterDay.

Mccab just seems to be pretty fair amount of thought into his work so a vote based on low Participations seems odd. The stated reason doesn;t seem to match the voter. So I tried to find a reason for him to make the vote, that's what I came up with.

x'ed shasta

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul

If G55 is the cobbler 159 seems to say "Nthing to see here mve along move along" Now of course the cobbler doesn't know the wolves but 159 seems to protect Copper

No, I believe my heart means her words to Legate in that same post: "I get you. *nods* I get you..." etc.

EDIT:X'd since Morsul at #230.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I was talking more about the way G55 seemed to be specifically, deliberately talking to Legate, actually.

I saw that but I found the meat in the rest of it where she seems to shrug off anything to do with copper

I take it you're talking about the "I get you *nods*I get you"(paraphrasing.)

Seems sort of a bantery intr to the rest of the post.

x'ed nerwen

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I was talking more about the way G55 seemed to be specifically, deliberately talking to Legate, actually.

Then why would Cobbler55 throw Legwolf under the bus now?

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -

"Roger, wolf tower."

Yes. That one does seem that way. The "But I must say, I will consider the points you bring up, Legate." is strange and I can't really account for it other than G55 deliberately sending a sign of support to Legate.

And...now I really have to vote.

++Legate

Edit: cross-posted since my last post.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Then why would Cobbler55 throw Legwolf under the bus now?

I haven't really gotten that far in my in-depth read, Inzil, I'm still on page 5. Half a mo' -

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Was this ever responded to? I feel like this is a good point.

Yes. I said earlier that firstly, this was the person I said I'm planning to vote for a few hours or so, and secondly, he was not entirely without suspicion, and thirdly, some people did not vote yet.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -

"Roger, wolf tower."

I don't get the Rikae quote reference, but that post was me trying to get Legate to, you know, establish closer contact, so to say.


Anyways, my suspicions:

I'm pretty calm about Sally, Shasta and Morsul. Steve and Cabbie are complete enigmas. Cop doesn't strike me as very wolfish, but then other people bring up good points about her, which I don't necessarily agree to wholeheartedly, but there is reason behind them. In other words, I'm torn. I've had so many changes of heart about Zil these two Days that I'm still a bit dizzy; I have a very conflicted opinion. Nerwen seems like her regular self. Thing is, she's darn good at looking like her typical self as a wolf. So when I have time I will be taking a closer look at her interactions with others moreso than the contents of her posts. And Lommy - I'm quite suspicious of her, but somehow the idea of a Lommy-Legate pack doesn't seem exactly fitting based on some of their interactions toDay. I'll be taking a closer look at this one too.

And, of course, I suspect Legate heavily of being a wolf.

EDIT: xed since 229

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, got it, you're talking about G55 at #196 where she votes Legate. Hmm. In that case I might buy that G55 was pretending to be a Cobbler hinting at someone she thought was a wolf. I'll need to read the rest, though.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Then why would Cobbler55 throw Legwolf under the bus now?

If G55's story is true: she was trying to look like the Seer on Day 1, so that the wolves would target her. But since the Ranger made a save, she changed her tactics and tried to look like a Cobbler and cozy up to Legate. She did talk about her suspicions lessening, and that post replying to Legate looked like her sending a "yep, I'm right here with you" signal - that she's the Cobbler who's ID'd a wolf. But then, she got frustrated and realised her scheme wasn't working, and revealed it all.

Edit: cross-posted since my last post.