Game Thread: TIG XCII - Disaster by the Lake

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Two ordos

How could I forget about the cobbler? But he still counts innocent in the tally, and we need all the innocents we can get, just to outnumber the wolves.

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

I'm an ordo.

Right, that goes back to what I said. We all are. The wolves are not going to say "we are the wolves".

Originally Posted by sally

Kill me, and I can almost assure you there will only be three.

Nay, dear cupcake, let us not kill anyone for no reason. If you indeed are what you pose to be, we would lose an innocent as well. Why not just eliminate the wolf, and keep the innocent?





Seer and Ranger, I don't think it's a good idea for you to reveal right this moment, whoever you are. Especially Ranger - you're the village's last hope (Estel... how fitting...). Everyone makes blunders, but this Night please do try to make a save. (you would even if I didn't tell you to, so why am I telling you that?)

Edit: xed with Kit

[satansaloser2005]

“Lynches happen. Every day – don’t they, village?” And now Sally’s voice was stronger as she addressed the group, who one by one heard her words, their vote power still in hand.

The villagers were unsure who to listen to this day, and accusations would soon be flashing in their hands. “Kill the most suspicious,” they all said, advancing.

Sally gave a soft shake of her head. “No,” she corrected. “++Sally.”

It was an odd phrase, and for the moment it brought everyone up short. Besides, what was Sally’s plan this time? Where was the trap? “I don’t think I quite understand that," one of them said.

Sally held her vote still but she was smiling more deeply now. “I’ll be only too delighted to explain.” It was four against the five now. One day left. (There may not even be that. She did not know. He could she know it would work?)

Slowly, carefully, she began to talk....




(And I'm going to make you all wait until my morning for the rest.)

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kit

Either you're very furry or you're doing exactly as a cobbler should by trying to create mass confusion.

Or you're missing something that at least I consider obvious.

I will skim the thread for an answer to those ors.

Edit: xed with Sally

[satansaloser2005]

I should have broken the ordos out on my first post, but I neglected to do so, for which I apologize.

Remaining:
Three werewolves
One seer
One ranger
One hunter
One cobbler
One ordo


ETA: Also, I don't really want the other gifteds to reveal, but that much should have been obvious.

[Nerwen]

Pitch, Day One.

#36.
Is "not convinced of Zil's innocence". Defends G55 against Nogrod, who saw her comments about "Nights" as a possible wolf-slip; points out that he should have kept his thoughts about her giftedness to himself. Finds Zil more suspicious than Lottie. Not worried about Bom; wants to hear more from Kit; finds Shasta and Agan somewhat sneaky and says he will "see" about Shasta; "no read" on Greenie. "sees nothing" pointing to my being a wolf.

Comment: Not a terribly Seerish-looking post, given that the person he most suspects is Zil – but the repeated use of "see" might have been taken as meaning something.


#40.
Mildly defends Zil; dislikes G55's vote, but doesn't find it necessarily wolvish.


#46. Tells Bom his copycat suspicions are themselves suspicious, and wants him to explain why he suspects me. Replying to Zil, who says he "Wants to lynch [Bom] to be on the safe side", says "I have similar feelings about more than one player in this game."


#71.
Admonishes Nog again for his speculations on G55; defends Lottie, is considering voting Nog; also suspects Kit.


#80. Vote-post.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Time for me to count my metaphoric sheep.

I'm actually quite inclined to vote Nog, but I haven't yet digested the recent discussion about him wholly, and I'd rather not do it in the heat of the moment. So I'll stick with my earlier suspicion:

++Zil

Forgetting about G55's vote sounds almost unbelievable enough to be true, but it still smells of retconning, and I'm not happy with his pounce on Nerwen in the first place. Let's find out.

General comments: reading through Pitch's posts, there's a general "vibe" there that I think could be taken as "gifted". If we go from the assumption that the wolves thought he was the Seer, it's a bit difficult to know who his supposed "dream" would have been– I'd say either me, G55, Lottie, Kit or Nog, the latter two as baddies. However, in the end he voted for Zil (innocent).

EDIT:X'd with a host.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

Or you're missing something that at least I consider obvious.

Oh, it's obvious enough what she's claiming to be– I mean, it's gone beyond hinting– but there's a question of why she'd really want to do this now.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh, it's obvious enough what she's claiming to be– I mean, it's gone beyond hinting– but there's a question of why she'd really want to do this now.

Mostly because I miscounted. I thought there were eight people, not nine, and I submitted my post only to realize that I'd forgotten to count myself. (ETA: Which is to say that I thought toDay was endgame, and that we might have to resort to drastic measures.)

If we have no direction toDay, however, it's an obvious solution, so I likely would have come out with it at some point anyway. Besides, the wolves will not attack me at Night (since they don't know who I've chosen as my target), which will leave us with a weapon for toMorrow. It's worked before. It will work again.

Also, I figured I'd save everyone the trouble of analyzing what little I've posted. Our efforts are best spent figuring out who I should be hunting and who we should be lynching.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I should have broken the ordos out on my first post, but I neglected to do so, for which I apologize.

Remaining:
Three werewolves
One seer
One ranger
One hunter
One cobbler
One ordo

But there's 9 players, not 8. There's 2 ordos and 1 cobbler.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

General comments: reading through Pitch's posts, there's a general "vibe" there that I think could be taken as "gifted". If we go from the assumption that the wolves thought he was the Seer, it's a bit difficult to know who his supposed "dream" would have been– I'd say either me, G55, Lottie, Kit or Nog, the latter two as baddies. However, in the end he voted for Zil (innocent).

I doubt he could have been thought of dreaming Nog - he chose Agan over him yesterDay, when was the perfect chance to lynch him. And if he dreamed Kit, why did he go for Zil? He only mentions her in one post. Same thing with Lottie (well, twice...). Then, I don't think that your reasoning for you and I on the list is entirely correct. Again, the wolves could have thought that he dreamed either me or you, but really - neither of us participated much, and Pitch wasn't the only one who talked a bit about my vote and your IC post. It's not impossible that the wolves thought him Seer based on that, but there are too many ifs.

And I don't feel the "gifted vibe" you talk about - more like an "innocent who's trying his darn best" vibe.

Moreover, even if you accept that the wolves thought Pitch dreamed of one of the 5 people you mention - it one of the five. It's his suspicion list, not his dream.

In other words, I disagree with you that he was thought to be the Seer. More likely he was killed so that the village would think they thought he's the Seer and would try to find clues in his posts that would lead in the wrong direction.

Edit: xed with Nerwen and Sally

[satansaloser2005]

See? I did it again. Goodness. I think that's the cue for my bedtime.

We have nine people. Let's lynch a wolf or lynch me. Either one is fine with me.

Good night, children.

[Galadriel55]

You know what, sally? I trust you. I am willing to take the risk of believing someone in WW.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

In other words, I disagree with you that he was thought to be the Seer.

Eh? I didn't actually say I thought that either. I was looking at it as a theory, and seeing if the facts fit, and what, if anything, could be deduced– which is not the same thing.

Originally Posted by G55

More likely he was killed so that the village would think they thought he's the Seer and would try to find clues in his posts that would lead in the wrong direction.

True– but the Night-kill still has to be looked at. And then there's the question of why they would do that, instead of actually trying for gifteds. (Wolf in trouble, perhaps?)

But anyway, I still haven't looked at Pitch on Day Two.

EDIT:X'd with G55.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Eh? I didn't actually say I thought that either.

Originally Posted by Nerwen (before)

General comments: reading through Pitch's posts, there's a general "vibe" there that I think could be taken as "gifted". If we go from the assumption that the wolves thought he was the Seer, it's a bit difficult to know who his supposed "dream" would have been...

(underlining mine)

I smell burned dough.



(Am I misunderstanding something here? Do you mean "think" as in "my guess if this theory is true"? In that case, you really ought to be clearer.)




Alright, bedtime for me (rather, way past it). I hope to see some progress in wolf-eliminating when I wake up tomorrow my time.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

(Am I misunderstanding something here? Do you mean "think" as in "my guess if this theory is true"? In that case, you really ought to be clearer.)

Yes, that is what I meant. I thought it was clear enough, but apparently not.

You do understand that what I'm doing here is pretty much standard procedure, right? What's the problem?

[Nerwen]

And why "burned dough"?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Gal

ToDay I will just pretend to be deaf to his posts and try my best to ignore his comments. If he's serving for the evil side (which I'm almost 100% sure he is) he'll try to use all kinds of tricks on us before he dies (if he dies, but he'll use them either way), and personally I don't want my mind muddled with reverse psychology and associations and whatnot from him. He sure knows how to confuse people. I don't want to be led around by him to a wrong direction.

Er - what? This almost makes me feel better about Nog, you know. Looks too much like the wolves having decided during the night to lynch Nog during the Day, and Gal enters the Day considering it a done deal that Nog's the one to lynch. And even if that isn't the case, I don't think anyone can afford to completely ignore someone because they've decided that person's evil. Not at this phase.

I'm not happy with Sally's reveal, either. What's the point of a Hunter reveal, anyway? It makes no sense for us to kill her, does it, we'd just let her decide the lynch instead of us, and lose two villagers instead of one. And if she's really the Hunter, there's no way the wolves are going to go after her now - thus narrowing their options for the Seer, and basically making her own gift useless. I don't get it. Posing as Hunter might be a feasible tack for a Wolf though, if she trusted that we won't choose to lynch her, or a Cobbler: ideally, we'd spend the Day discussing who she should take with her, and when she dies it all turns out to be for nothing. A complete waste of a Day with practically no danger to the wolves at all.

Gah. My head hurts. I have limited time toDay as well but I'll do my best.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not happy with Sally's reveal, either. What's the point of a Hunter reveal, anyway?

Color me stupid, I completely ignored the fact she could be revealing as a hunter. :/ Must be the people I work with, they're low intelligence is finally rubbing off.

Posing as Hunter might be a feasible tack for a Wolf though, if she trusted that we won't choose to lynch her, or a Cobbler: ideally, we'd spend the Day discussing who she should take with her, and when she dies it all turns out to be for nothing. A complete waste of a Day with practically no danger to the wolves at all.

I remember when our mod posed as the seer and when the real seer (Shasta, perhaps?) came forward he was lynched that day. Sally hasn't said much for me to make any good judgement on her. There's a few things to consider.

1) Would a wolf false reveal when there's no danger for her yet? Doubtful unless she thought a packmate was in danger. A reveal causes a stir and other discussion would be diverted, at least for a short time.
2) Did Sally think she was being helpful? I had to drop out of a game once and I offered my hunter skills up to the village because it was earlier in the game. If Sally is innocent and truly the hunter she may think being sacrificed will take down a wolf too. The odds of getting a wolf are 1/3. Hitting another special role (excluding cobbler) is almost as likely though. And asking Sally to tell us her choice may force another valuable gifted to reveal. Why lose a known innocent, and one who is too dangerous to kill at night, when our village is so small?
3) Sally could still be a wolf or cobbler trying to create confusion, but now the real hunter would know who to go after.

I don't think Sally is a wolf. A cobbler? Maybe. The hunter? Maybe. As a wolf, doing a false reveal doesn't gain her anything, she wasn't in danger of being lynched. As the hunter, she becomes a known innocent that wolves might not want to kill because she could have one of them pegged. As a cobbler, she fulfills her role and we sit and debate instead of focusing our efforts on wolf catching.

I'm going to sleep a little while longer. When I return I'm going to scrutinize and comment on everything I missed Day 2.

[Nerwen]

Hear ye, hear ye! Unseasonable weather kept your Town Crier from her proclamations earlier in the Day, but all's well!

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Er - what? This almost makes me feel better about Nog, you know. Looks too much like the wolves having decided during the night to lynch Nog during the Day, and Gal enters the Day considering it a done deal that Nog's the one to lynch. And even if that isn't the case, I don't think anyone can afford to completely ignore someone because they've decided that person's evil. Not at this phase.

We-ell, by her own account G55 was utterly convinced no innocent-Nog scenario could logically exist... but that does seem a little convenient. I can't say I've been getting much in the way of "wolf-vibes" from G55 in this game, though. Except maybe that she seems rather jittery about my Pitchalysis.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm not happy with Sally's reveal, either. What's the point of a Hunter reveal, anyway? It makes no sense for us to kill her, does it, we'd just let her decide the lynch instead of us, and lose two villagers instead of one. And if she's really the Hunter, there's no way the wolves are going to go after her now - thus narrowing their options for the Seer, and basically making her own gift useless. I don't get it.

And after the suicidal-hunter tactic worked so brilliantly last game...

Originally Posted by Greenie

Posing as Hunter might be a feasible tack for a Wolf though, if she trusted that we won't choose to lynch her, or a Cobbler: ideally, we'd spend the Day discussing who she should take with her, and when she dies it all turns out to be for nothing. A complete waste of a Day with practically no danger to the wolves at all.

To echo Kit– it doesn't seem that useful for a wolf-Sally to do that, at this point. On the other hand–

Originally Posted by Kit

As the hunter, she becomes a known innocent that wolves might not want to kill because she could have one of them pegged.

I still don't see why a Hunter would think that worth being more-or-less neutralised. (I know Sally already answered me on this point, but her answer really doesn't make much sense.)

[Nerwen]

Mind you–

Originally Posted by Kit

If Sally is innocent and truly the hunter she may think being sacrificed will take down a wolf too. The odds of getting a wolf are 1/3. The odds of getting a wolf are 1/3. Hitting another special role (excluding cobbler) is almost as likely though. And asking Sally to tell us her choice may force another valuable gifted to reveal.

According to TEH ROOLZ, Bard is a Logical Hunter, so the total disaster of last game couldn't happen this time. It would still be a bizarrely wasteful and over-complicated manouevre, though.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And why "burned dough"?

Burned potatoes. Better? I was saying that I thought you made a blunder.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Er - what? This almost makes me feel better about Nog, you know. Looks too much like the wolves having decided during the night to lynch Nog during the Day, and Gal enters the Day considering it a done deal that Nog's the one to lynch. And even if that isn't the case, I don't think anyone can afford to completely ignore someone because they've decided that person's evil. Not at this phase.

I think I have been pretty clear that I do not think Nog is wolf. That being said, he's most likely a cobbler known to the village. A cobbler messes things up - esecially one who is revealed. If he says "X is wolf", should I think that X is really not a wolf and Nog is just tricking me, or is he using reverse psychology on me, or is that just a random name drawn out of nowhere? I have better things to do toDay except for puzzling this out. And I do not want to chase down cobblers. I want to get a wolf. Now.

Originally Posted by Greenie

It makes no sense for us to kill her, does it, we'd just let her decide the lynch instead of us, and lose two villagers instead of one.

So you don't have faith that sally has a wolf on the edge of her, erm... pen?

I agree with you that we should just lynch the wolf and let sally choose a different target - hopefully another wolf - thus being more effective. But I don't find her furry for that. If I say that A is a wolf, you say that B is, and someone else says that C&D are, we can't have a proper organised lynch. Then, according to her, we lynch sally who takes out a wolf. The only problem is that we won't get an organised sally-lynch either. Some will say that it's our only chance, others will call it absurd.

Originally Posted by Greenie

And if she's really the Hunter, there's no way the wolves are going to go after her now - thus narrowing their options for the Seer, and basically making her own gift useless.

You're forgetting about the third gifted. The Ranger can do miracles.

Originally Posted by Greenie

ideally, we'd spend the Day discussing who she should take with her, and when she dies it all turns out to be for nothing.

No, we won't. She can't choose her pick during the Day. And it's supposed to be a surprise during the Night, a secret weapon, so why would we tell the wolves "sally's hunting X toNight"? This is a waste of gift. We should be trying to find a wolf, and she should make her pick based on that.

I have to say this about you, Greenie. You're starting to look more and more like a wolf trying to save a comrade by labeling sally guilty.


@Kit: If you think that sally could be the cobbler, which role do you think Nog has? They can't both be cobblers, and Nog just as good as fake-revealed Seer.


So far there's me and Bom thinking sally has the village's best intentions at heart, and Greenie and Nerwen thinking that she doesn't, and Kit undecided. Is that right?

Edit: xed with 2 Nerwens

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

You're forgetting about the third gifted. The Ranger can do miracles.

Meaning?

Originally Posted by G55

.
No, we won't. She can't choose her pick during the Day. And it's supposed to be a surprise during the Night, a secret weapon, so why would we tell the wolves "sally's hunting X toNight"?

Um... I think Greenie's talking about a Sally–as–Cobbler scenario there, G55– though she certainly could have been clearer about it.

Originally Posted by G55

@Kit: If you think that sally could be the cobbler, which role do you think Nog has? They can't both be cobblers, and Nog just as good as fake-revealed Seer.

Well, what he did yesterDay was darned peculiar, I'll grant you that. Are you sure he meant it to be taken as a reveal, though? Seers can't usually see the Cobbler, after all. (Don't think that's been clarified for this game.)

Originally Posted by G55

So far there's me and Bom thinking sally has the village's best intentions at heart, and Greenie and Nerwen thinking that she doesn't, and Kit undecided. Is that right?

I'd say I'm more "undecided". I don't think what she's doing is in the village's interests– but I can't yet rule out that she thinks it is. It's hard to know where you are with Sally– she likes to pull weird stunts now and then, whatever her role.

[Nerwen]

Wait a minute–

Originally Posted by G55

I think I have been pretty clear that I do not think Nog is wolf. That being said, he's most likely a cobbler known to the village. A cobbler messes things up - esecially one who is revealed. If he says "X is wolf", should I think that X is really not a wolf and Nog is just tricking me, or is he using reverse psychology on me, or is that just a random name drawn out of nowhere? I have better things to do toDay except for puzzling this out. And I do not want to chase down cobblers. I want to get a wolf. Now.

I didn't get this before. Are you saying you *don't* want to lynch Nog, and that we should have realised this *because* you think he's a cobbler?

[satansaloser2005]

I thought there were only eight people left in the game. At that point, it's essentially game over unless we can be sure we kill the right person. By revealing as the hunter, I removed myself as a lynch target, which increased our chances of getting a wolf toDay, and if we realized partway through the Day that our target was another gifted, the hunter is always preferable to the ranger or seer as a lynch target. (ETA because the Downs somehow ate part of my post: Desperate times call for desperate measures, and it's the hunter's job to take drastic and suicidal measures.)

However, there are nine people left. Thus, I should have waited to reveal until toMorrow. I miscalculated and made a really, really stupid mistake, and I apologize for that.

This is going so very well.

[satansaloser2005]

If we're in doubt about whether someone is wolf or cobbler, that person is not a wise lynch target for toDay.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Meaning?

Exactly what I said. Kit is forgetting that the Ranger is also awake at Night.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, what he did yesterDay was darned peculiar, I'll grant you that. Are you sure he meant it to be taken as a reveal, though? Seers can't usually see the Cobbler, after all. (Don't think that's been clarified for this game.)

He left a few "clues" just before his "Agan is a cobbler". I am quite sure of it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I didn't get this before. Are you saying you *don't* want to lynch Nog, and that we should have realised this *because* you think he's a cobbler?

Clarifying. Looking from his perspective, yesterDay he probably expected us to lynch him toDay, thus giving the wolves another Day in the lead. I suggest lynching a wolf, not a cobbler, so that we won't give the baddies the lead. Cobbler counts innocent in the tally, and I would like to use that as our advantage. Lynching wolf is more important than getting rid of a cobbler, especially at this stage.

Edit: xed with SallyX2

[Nerwen]

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

EDIT:X'd with Sally and G55. I'm replying to Sally here.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

#196 - sally reveals.

#209 - she finds her mistake.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

EDIT:X'd with Sally and G55. I'm replying to Sally here.

Yeah. After I'd made the reveal post, I realized I couldn't count correctly.

Yesterday was a really long day. I have no other excuse.


ETA: x'd with Galadriel, who also confirms my stupidity

[satansaloser2005]

So....how about them werewolves?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

Exactly what I said. Kit is forgetting that the Ranger is also awake at Night.

Unless this is a *very* special Ranger, he or she can't force the wolves to pick the Hunter– which I think is what was under discussion at that point.

He left a few "clues" just before his "Agan is a cobbler". I am quite sure of it.

Like what?

Originally Posted by G55

Clarifying. Looking from his perspective, yesterDay he probably expected us to lynch him toDay, thus giving the wolves another Day in the lead. I suggest lynching a wolf, not a cobbler, so that we won't give the baddies the lead. Cobbler counts innocent in the tally, and I would like to use that as our advantage. Lynching wolf is more important than getting rid of a cobbler, especially at this stage.

Originally Posted by Sally

If we're in doubt about whether someone is wolf or cobbler, that person is not a wise lynch target for toDay.

But barring Seer-dreams, there is *always* that doubt in any game with a cobbler. We'd never lynch anyone at all, following your argument.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

#196 - sally reveals.

#209 - she finds her mistake.

Originally Posted by Sally

Yeah. After I'd made the reveal post, I realized I couldn't count correctly.

Yesterday was a really long day. I have no other excuse.

Mmn– except that you list nine villagers at #194, made before your reveal. I can't be the only one to have noticed that.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, here it is–

Pitch, Day Two.
#118.
Thinks Kath was a trailless kill. Still suspicious of Nog for his gifted-speculations. Asks Lottie to explain why she said Nog and Greenie might be packmates.

Comment: I don't think she has, yet. Lottie?

#128.
"Flip-flopping" about Kit. Her posts look "fair, balanced and independent", but she has done a very peculiar about-face overnight on Greenie, which he finds suspicious.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So yes, I know, wolves can be consistent while innocents may need to change their minds, but I'd still like to hear how "making a decent point" and "the best case for a lynch candidate" became "said a lot with saying a lot" and twisting words? Especially as Kit seems to me to be largely echoing Nog's self defense.

#132.
Accepts Nog's point that Agan, not he, was the first to speculate about G55.


#136.
Rule discussion; disagrees with Shasta that Agan is "witch-hunting" Pitch himself, but wants to know how Nog changed from "someone you [Agan] trusted enough to save his life yesterDay to a baddie you could imagine voting for toDay?"


#141. After Kit's bad-news announcement.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Dang! I actually considered voting Kit toDay (see #128 above), but under these circumstances that would feel really mean.

Anyway, I'm sorry to hear that, Kit; hope it's not that bad.

#144.

Originally Posted by Pitch

What?

I mean, she might be for all I know, but do you have reasons or are you completely bonkers now?

Well, yes, it's a very good question, isn't it? Where *is* Nogrod, anyway?


#150.
Shasta-Agan row "interesting". Shasta's case on Agan is "twisted", and Shasta himself rather reminiscent of Shastawolf. But he 'just can't read him". Agan, meanwhile, is "a sphinx".

Comment: this post does look quite a bit like Seer-code for "opinions not based on my dreams". I doubt that alone would be enough, though.


#154
Dubious about Greenie's apparent trust in him.


#157
"Could get behind" Nog's (inevitable!) suggestion to lynch the quiet ones.


#162.
Wants to hear more from Agan. Would like to give Nog, Shasta and Greenie more time. Has "seen nothing furry in Lottie (yet)".

Comment: that last is another *slightly* Seerish remark.


#169.
Thinks Nog and Agan could be packmates; "not fully at ease" about Shasta, but not ready to vote him.


#181.Votes Agan, to find out "if [Nog] speaks truth", promising to "examine Shasta toMorrow" if Agan turns out innocent.

Well, that was a lot of use. The only things really noteworthy are his suspicions on Shasta and Kit, especially his saying he intended to vote the latter. However, it doesn't seem all that likely either of those would be taken as Seer-hints– his suspicion of Kit, for example, is clearly based on her posting. Is it possible a Kitwolf or a Shastawolf wanted him killed just because he was looking too dangerous? Or is that a reach? It does seem a pretty clumsy move.

[Loslote]

Alright, so...Sally's the Hunter. I'll believe her; revealing now seems like the sort of thing she would do. In fact, I think I've seen her do something very similar before as the Hunter (or maybe she was the Ranger and Shasta was the Hunter...it was a very confusing game). I agree that we shouldn't lynch her toDay, but rather than argue about how helpful her reveal was, I'd prefer to accept that she's done it and move on. Look on the positive side: we've narrowed down the list a bit. Our chances of killing us a wolf are a bit better than before.

Speaking of killing us a wolf, I'll be back in about half an hour with time to actually talk about suspiciony things.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Alright, so...Sally's the Hunter. I'll believe her; revealing now seems like the sort of thing she would do. In fact, I think I've seen her do something very similar before as the Hunter (or maybe she was the Ranger and Shasta was the Hunter...it was a very confusing game).

I don't know which game you mean, but yes, she's done this kind of thing before. Only– see my post at #230. Either she's *very* confused, or I've caught her in a lie. I'm not too willing to trust her after that.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't know which game you mean, but yes, she's done this kind of thing before. Only– see my post at #230. Either she's *very* confused, or I've caught her in a lie. I'm not too willing to trust her after that.

Normally I'd agree with you that that looks fishy, but I don't think that's Sally's style of playing. I'd be surprised if this is all a giant Sally-trick.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mmn– except that you list nine villagers at #194, made before your reveal. I can't be the only one to have noticed that.

That post was my reveal, Nerwen.

Originally Posted by me

I think our best option four toDay is, well, the obvious.

Massive reveals, everyone? If so, I'd be happy to start (or rather, finish).

There's no coming back after something that obvious, and it wouldn't have been right to delete or mass-edit my post even if I had realized the full extent of my mistake right off.

I realized my numbers were wrong after I hit submit (which actually means Galadriel's summation is inaccurate, but no matter) and replaced the eight with the nine. Of course then I kept accidentally operating under the assumption that there were eight, which doesn't help with the clarity thing.


Essentially I failed at math. I corrected my number, but kept messing up my math for a few posts until finally I realized, "Oh, nine? That made this whole thing really stupid."


Also, my internet exploded for a bit, so this is x'd since my last post. I'll be back later after I (re)do my analysis of Lottie.

[Loslote]

Sally: I believe her claim to be the Hunter. Not much more to say, is there?
Nog: I've been flip-flopping on him all game. Day 1 he seemed very furry, Day 2 I thought he sounded better, but that "Agan is the cobbler" comment of his yesterDay doesn't sit right with me at all.
Kitanna: She seems reasonable from what I've seen. I haven't played with her much before; I can't really get a grip on her innocence or lack thereof.
Galadriel: She seemed reasonable for a while, but her attitude towards Nog and Sally is a bit worrisome. She seems to decide what she thinks of people and refuses to even look at their posts anymore because she doesn't think her mind can be changed. That seems much more like a wolf, who does know whether or not someone is a wolf and thus doesn't have to wonder whether or not they're wrong than an innocent, who has to keep recalculating and questioning their judgement.
Bom: I can't get a read on him at all.
Shasta: He hasn't posted as much as I would have expected, but I've agreed with most of it, and I can't decide if that makes me nervous about him or more comfortable with him.
Nerwen: Her logic seems sound, but I don't agree with all the conclusions she draws. Really not sure what to make of her.
Greenie: I want to think her innocent, because a lot of what she says seems like it should be innocent, but there's still a nagging feeling in the back of my mind whenever I read her posts...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

There's no coming back after something that obvious, and it wouldn't have been right to delete or mass-edit my post even if I had realized the full extent of my mistake right off.

Yes, but you hadn't revealed *as* anything... never mind (as Lottie might say ). Either you're a cobbler, probably one who thinks Nog is a wolf– or you're exactly what you say you are, and I'm just too tired now to sort out which.

I'm going to have to vote soon, though, as I can't guarantee being back before DL. I will probably vote for Nog, because of the business yesterDay, though I'd have liked to give him a chance to explain his now-infamous "Agan is the cobbler" statement. Still, after re-reading, he's certainly happy enough for people to, apparently, take it as a Seer-hint...

Other possibilities would be Lottie (Day One stuff), my treasure (role in Agan's lynching) or Kit (Pitch-connection), but those all look like long-shots right now.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and Bom. Maybe he's the cobbler too. Maybe everyone is.

[Nerwen]

Anyway–

++Nogrod

That's the best I can do.

Good luck!

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I still don't see why a Hunter would think that worth being more-or-less neutralised. (I know Sally already answered me on this point, but her answer really doesn't make much sense.)

This is a possibility, but not necessarily a good plan. The wolves might not want to kill, but wolves like to get rid of known innocents because that's one more person not getting lynched instead of them.

Originally Posted by G55

So you don't have faith that sally has a wolf on the edge of her, erm... pen?
...
The only problem is that we won't get an organised sally-lynch either. Some will say that it's our only chance, others will call it absurd.

But she might not have a wolf is the problem. She could easily kill one of the six people who aren't wolves. I count the cobbler because even though the role isn't exactly innocent, at this point we need a wolf, not a wolf's village helper.

Originally Posted by G55

@Kit: If you think that sally could be the cobbler, which role do you think Nog has? They can't both be cobblers, and Nog just as good as fake-revealed Seer

I said it was something to consider. I saw Nog's "Agan is the cobbler" but like I said with Sally, there are other options to consider. He's certainly likely the cobbler with a statement like that, but an expert wolf like Nog could hide himself in that.

Originally Posted by G55

So far there's me and Bom thinking sally has the village's best intentions at heart, and Greenie and Nerwen thinking that she doesn't, and Kit undecided. Is that right?

If Sally is really our hunter, then she's trying to do us favor by offering her gift, but I think her idea is a bad one to follow in case she hasn't picked out a wolf.
I'm mostly undecided because so many scenarios have played out in WW that I don't find it safe or wise to accept things on good faith. I'd rather examine other options and decide based on that.

Originally Posted by Sally

I removed myself as a lynch target, which increased our chances of getting a wolf toDay, and if we realized partway through the Day that our target was another gifted, the hunter is always preferable to the ranger or seer as a lynch target.

True, but Sally, what if your target ends up being one of said roles?

Originally Posted by Sally

If we're in doubt about whether someone is wolf or cobbler, that person is not a wise lynch target for toDay.

I think a lot of us are in doubt though.

Originally Posted by G55

Exactly what I said. Kit is forgetting that the Ranger is also awake at Night.

You quoted Greenie, not me.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Sally is a bit worrisome. She seems to decide what she thinks of people and refuses to even look at their posts anymore because she doesn't think her mind can be changed. That seems much more like a wolf, who does know whether or not someone is a wolf and thus doesn't have to wonder whether or not they're wrong than an innocent, who has to keep recalculating and questioning their judgement.

You spent your two posts prior to this saying how Sally was innocent and how she'd not use a big trick. So...what do you really think of Sally? Why the sudden change when you were sure she was telling the truth.

X-posted with Nerwen: Maybe you're the cobbler, but I guess you count as everyone.