WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Macalaure]

Boro

#11 - nothing of consequence.

#45 - wow. This looks like a real solid contribution at first glance, but it's not. All he says is that he can't read Aganzir, without giving any actual in-game points, making a comment about my drawer-mantelpiece stuff, joking about Kath, defending Pitch, and talk about how he skims the thread.

#56/#57 - joking around with Inzil and some role-talk.

#95 - four(!) paragraphs defending the role-and-rule talk against Wilwa. Defends Pitch pretty staunchly (note is awareness of and worry about a possible bandwaggon).

#103 - says he's going to vote for one of those he forgot were playing: Lommy, Manwe, Nessa, Greenie, Shasta among them. Some chatter with Lommy, too.

#112 - buries the hatchet with Wilwa.

#124 - chatters around a little. Lists Eomer and Greenie as possible votes, because they didn't catch his eye enough. Then votes Inzil for a fairly stupid reason. Inzil had no votes at this point and, I think, no major suspicions thrown his way.

All Boro actually does is defend Pitch. This means he's either a wolf and Pitch his companion, or it's the other thing. Neither explains his total lack of trying to suspect anybody for a remotely serious reason. Since I suspect Pitch quite a bit, I can't help but suspect Boro a lot, too.

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure why everyone gets surprised when Kath winds up killed. She's a smart and astute player. Always gives a thorough read through of the posts and then gives her opinions.

Ozban, no clue, played with him once before and it looks like a no-trace, but I'm always surprised at packs who go for no-trace over the seer. Maybe this pack feels like they can avoid the seer for a while by hiding in the masses?

Originally Posted by Macalaure

All Boro actually does is defend Pitch. This means he's either a wolf and Pitch his companion, or it's the other thing. Neither explains his total lack of trying to suspect anybody for a remotely serious reason. Since I suspect Pitch quite a bit, I can't help but suspect Boro a lot, too.

I work backwards as I always find it hard to come up with suspicions on Day 1. I mean, just because someone disagrees with you about roles or mechanics doesn't mean that person's a wolf. So, I try to start taking out people I do not want to get lynched and then go from there, by looking at the votes and whether I should vote for someone who's already been voted for or add another name.

Some of my banter and joking may look useless to you, but to me, I think I've already gotten a good idea on several players.

Pitch has a nickname that seems stuck with him forever, Mr. Agreeable, and this usually gets him suspected early and often. With the unexplained uneasy feelings and Pitch being agreeable, I saw the same thing happening yesterday. Maybe he is a wolf, but I'm not his companion.

Lommy yelled at me for questioning the sanity of her mind. It looked like a big-little sisterly thing to do. We were joking (at least I was, she would probably say it was a jerk thing for me to say ), but gave me a good feeling about Lommy.

Agan was up to something, but she'd be up to something no matter the role. Obvious to point out, yes, but I wanted to give more time to figure her out, now that I've seen how the mind of the Alpha Female Scar works.

I'm used to taking notice of Greenie, Eomer, and Inzil and I really wasn't yesterday. Greenie because she's completely blind-sided me as a wolf before, when I said something on how she looks so sweet and innocent, and Nog warned me of her sharp-claws and fangs side.

Eomer, much like morm, tends to be aggressive and pretty confident of his decisions.

Inzil, I've had a good read on him in the past, and he's usually one of the more "straight to business" people, but couldn't remember any of his posts other than not having a pillow.

You should know, Mac, once the information from the lynches and kills is known, I become my most annoying and biggest thorn in people's sides. I find Day 1's difficult to get through, just choose not to gripe about them that much.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Lottie just says Sally still worries her. She will give Sally a crucial third vote (though she said she crossed with Skip).

I would just like to point something out. You say that "she said she crossed". I'm sure you're not insinuating that I lied about that, but I thought I might as well point out that lying about a cross post is, in my mind (and, I think, in most everyone's) very bad form. I assure you, if I say I've cross posted, I cross posted. And I don't even mean that thing where you reply and see the post before you hit submit but don't really read it, either. Anyway, I know you didn't mean anything by it, but I didn't want anyone else to read that and assume that you thought I'd lied about it.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's more than likely that the wolves and the cobbler try to identify each other as soon as possible, so we should watch out for people who look like they know too much (even if they can't really do that till tomorrow). Of course the wolves & the cobbler have information we don't, but it's still possible they get overly confident and slip something.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

This could be a coincidence. It could have no correlation whatsoever. Or it could be cobbler!Nessa trying to hint back at Agan, who she thinks is a wolf, or it could be wolf!Nessa trying to hint back at Agan, who she thinks is the cobbler. Just throwing that out there.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seriously, you don't think a wolf would be actively seeking reason for suspicion, but you do think a wolf would make a completely unfounded accusation that leaves her open to easy attack? Why?

Honestly, after so many werewolf games I do not believe wolves conform to a certain behavioural pattern at all. If I had been a wolf, I would probably have tried the fly under the radar approach yesterDay. After all, this village is huge. I have no idea who is in it. I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

I feel better about Mac after his long analysis, because we have clearly been thinking along the same lines.

Not sure what to do about your situation, Kitanna. I'd honestly rather not put you up for lynching because well, you are innocent. Just target whoever you think is guilty and we will have two shots at finding a wolf instead of one. We can definitely use those odds anyway.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, back... commenting on a bit of stuff, some thoughts about people, then on the Kit issue in the end...

Originally Posted by Mac

BG looks better (she suspected Ozban, and usually (though not always) you don't kill the people you suspect during the day)

This is a good point.

As for what Mac also said, there is the thing that I can imagine some people (Agan, Lommy...) not wanting to kill e.g. Ozban because they didn't get much chance to play with him before, however, one has to consider that they might be just one Wolf in the big pack and perhaps their votes would be overriden. The question is though, overriden by WHAT - since it really seems now that the only reason was no-trace kill, or possibly framing someone (or possibly killing our day by letting us wonder what the heck is this all about).

And, there is one thing I really don't like: I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf? But maybe I haven't seen him "normal" for such a long time that... well, never mind. I am not going to continue on that just now, I am merely wary about him.

Mac's posting looks reasonable, unless it is a part of some huge conspiracy of intertwined posts which are supposed to make certain people look good (Agan? Zil? Nessa?) and make others suspected.

On the superficial level, I have started to be somewhat wary also of Elronhubbard, but from the general tone of her posting it makes me think she is actually innocent. More like gut-feeling from the way she presents herself.

Now there is the time to remark that actually Mac has a point in how Boro did indeed not say much, and in fact, neither he did toDay. Maybe he wished to post something after being "rebuked", but in fact he just very shortly repeated a few things which are really of not so much consequence. Most curious.

And like I said, I don't suspect Lottie that much anymore, and her latter posting confirms this even more.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm not sure why everyone gets surprised when Kath winds up killed. She's a smart and astute player. Always gives a thorough read through of the posts and then gives her opinions.

"And others tried to figure out whether it was a compliment." Or, I mean, and other players don't? Kath is a smart player, sure, but one of many. Or are all the other smart players Wolves? And who are they in your opinion, anyway?

And now as for Kitanna - well, happens; and I have no reason to distrust her claim. But if it is so, we have to figure out what to do with it.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Ahem. I don't have the time I thought I would have. I misjudged the DL times with my schedule and I now know this isn't going to work. I just don't have the time to dedicate. That said...

I'm the village hunter. I figure I should give you the choice to lynch me and suggest someone for me to kill with me. I realize this could mean two innocents die if no one agrees and I get lynched and take down an innocent. This plan has problems, but one way or another I won't be alive that much longer, so I thought it'd be worth a shot to try to get a wolf too.

I'm super sorry about this.

EDIT: I only have about nine hours to send the mod god my choice, so if I don't see a consensus I'll just pick who I think is guilty.

Now here goes one important thing. So okay, basically the suggestion is that we "vote" - we give you a suggestion whom to kill, and then vote for you, you get lynched, and take somebody with you.

I have a few things to that - I would prefer, if it is possible (or I don't know what people think), to keep you alive and around at least for a while yet. Depends how much you can, resp. how much you cannot play, Kit. It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on. That is, if you can pop in at least once in two Days and vote or something in order not to be modfired, I would like to have you here, and perhaps at least chime in with an idea once in a while. You see, the thing is, there are already two kills by Night, I don't really fancy two deaths by Day also. Of course, if we get a Wolf, no problem, but this method of lynching you is no better than a normal lynch, in fact, it's worse (in relation to the amount of people who die, even if one of them is a Wolf).

And that said, if I were to suggest somebody to you, I also don't have much of a clear idea - as more of us don't, I believe - whatever was suggested before is possible, Valier seems a bit creepy, but otherwise I would have to have the time to go through things properly to say anything specific, there are people I am wary of otherwise, like Boro, Rikae, somewhat Zil... but I have not yet made it my focus to go through all their posts.

[Macalaure]

Boro doesn't convince me yet.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm sure you're not insinuating that I lied about that

I definitely wasn't. I guess I just worded it badly.


I need a list to get a proper grip on my thoughts.

Feel more or less good about.
Shasta
Kitanna (of course)
Wilwa
Inzil
Rikae
BG
Legate
Lommy
These fellows are off the hook for now and will be until something happens that makes me change my mind.

No idea at all.
elronds_daughter
Greenie
Mänwe
ed and Mänwe didn't say much, and Greenie really has been so far under my radar that I don't know what to think. Not good.

Not really suspicious, but not really innocent either.
Loslote
Nessa
Skip
Aganzir
Cailín
Wary of these.

A bit suspicious.
Eomer
Valier
Very wary.

Good deal of suspicion.
Pitch
Boro
Are most likely to receive my vote toDay, unless something changes my mind (which is still very possible, of course).

[Kitanna]

This is the last post I can make. I'm going to stick with who I've already chosen. If enough of you lynch me and hope I'm right, well I hope I'm right too. Or maybe you'll let me stay to keep one more innocent body around until Nog arranges my suicide because of inactivity. Either way best of luck.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

[skip spence]

Good Day (if you can call it good and day)

Originally Posted by Lottie

EDIT: xed with Skip

What, you confused my Avatar with Eomer's?

Speaking of the Sally bandwagon and her cobbler idea.

Originally Posted by Legate

But that said, I can see the reason of voting sally because of that. However (and once again when I am fresh, I have to take a look at the bandwaggon for her, to see how big it actually was and who was there), I am inclined to believe that some WWs might have very likely mingled with the crowd there.

Personally I missed that cobbler-hint thingie yesterDay but reading back I get the impression a few of her voters went for her because of that (Wilwa, Agan, Lommy?). Or with that as a pretext. Obviously it would be interesting to find out if there was a werewolf (or wolves?) among the crowd who was in apparent danger of getting lynched. By the crowd I mean Pitch, Lottie, Nessa and Inzil.

Here I think Nessa looks objectively the worst but I also share Mac's concern about a lupine stitch-up, what with the killing of Oz, who I was also surprised to see killed. A set-up for an easy lynch might might be the explanation. Or that Nessa is a frightened wolf. Or neither.

Most people left the voting until late. If there was a ww in that crowd, how would his/her fellows act?

Originally Posted by Legate

If you find that hint in Ozzy's post, I am going to give you a medal. (And then probably lynch you, since I can't see an innocent seeing a Seer see-saw see... something there.

I find this over-the-top defence of unfortunate Ozzy rather suspect to be honest. You wouldn't dream of killing your buddy, eh?

Originally Posted by elrond's daughter

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I've seen this sentiment elsewhere and I don't like it. Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game. If his ww behaviour was that predictable I wouldn't fear him at all. But I do. Nothing very worrying about Inzil at present though.

Today, and spontaneously, I feel good about Pitch, Rikae and Mac. They all make sense and seem helpful. Though I must question the premiss that making sense is a good sign of innocence.

Getting slightly worried about Legate. Not convinced of Nessa's good intentions either. She was a bit twitchy yesterDay. Also worried about wolves hiding in the crowd. This is such a large village one tends to forget completely about those who rarely comment (and lacks name recognition). Wouldn't be surprised to find at least two among the submarines. But it's always hard to vote for a someone you have no info on.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not so sure if I'll be back close to DL, so I'm gonna go ahead and cast my vote. I'm still really worried about Rikae, and it wouldn't sit right with me to vote some of the other speculated people when it's a whole mess in there.

++Rikae

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

This is the last post I can make. I'm going to stick with who I've already chosen. If enough of you lynch me and hope I'm right, well I hope I'm right too. Or maybe you'll let me stay to keep one more innocent body around until Nog arranges my suicide because of inactivity. Either way best of luck.

I'm sorry you have to leave as I enjoyed your contribution. I find no reason to not believe you and hope you can leave with a bang and a dead wolf.

However, I don't like the idea of just lynching Kit and let her do her thing. Even though I think this statistically favours the village over the wolves (the latter lose their influence over the voting) it seems like a Day wasted and today's game ruined.

This is a question to Nogrod. If Kit is "modfired" will she simply disappear from the game of can she still perform her function as a hunter? Maybe just removing her is the best solution in either case?

[Mänwe]

This was always going to be the outcome; our numbers large enough for the evil amongst us to strike with impunity- such is the wickedness of Melkor- during these early days of torment. For this is the torment he seeks in his discord, to have in His creation, creation marred with self preservation.

And so two unspoken spirits are extinguished and one of ours who was among the most talkative is lynched. Posts of no substance and posts of substance are marked as being both innocent and evil; the same can be said of those who speak profusely and those who do not, heh none of us can win. Shall we now see two well spoken spirits killed during Melkor’s forced sleep and one unspoken spirit lynched?

Much is said of ones innocence that lies low, so I would have those who have spoken little (and who had offered no reason for their absence) step forward in this darkness, identify themselves because I can barely see and explain themselves. Those who have appeared to me as quite quiet and who have three or less posts in our first day of incarceration (and who survived the night’s carnage) are as I see it, the following.

[accountable, just]Cailín; #10(1i) – informs us of a flight, will be interesting to see how vocal she is today after posts #186(2i) and #205(2ii) appear to be reactionary to the nights events.

[unaccountable!]Blind Guardian; #47(1i) offers no reason for his absence and says due to this absence he will not vote. While Day 2, #181(2i) #187(2ii) expresses delight at survival and math reasoning for the ‘easy lynch’.

[unaccountable]A Little Green; #73(1i) a late Day 1 post (and nothing since) and casts a few nonchalant suspicions on Agan and Rikae.

[unaccountable]elronds_daughter; #71(1i) a late post to say driving a result of inactivity and appears content to just follow the flow of previous chatter. #152(1ii) jumps in with a blind (bandwagon) vote seemingly just conforming. #200(2i), ah back again to say a few odd bits that again to me appear to conform. Will look out for the more substantial post. Perhaps all a little too obvious.

I’ll hold back comments on other players for the time being.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Honestly, after so many werewolf games I do not believe wolves conform to a certain behavioural pattern at all. If I had been a wolf, I would probably have tried the fly under the radar approach yesterDay. After all, this village is huge. I have no idea who is in it. I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

Be that as it may (and you're right on on count: as a wolf I would be bold enough to make unfounded accusations and "stir the pot" if I felt so inclined), you began all this by implying that a Nessa-wolf would certainly not have dared to say "she knows something we don't", this sort of comment being somehow so risky, so assertive that no wolf would dare try to get suspicion going in such a bold way. Balderdash.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

That's not to say that Zil's post didn't make me paranoid about him instantly, quite the opposite. Someone who starts the Day with first post saying "both the kills have something to do with me" is either insane or weird.

Exactly, that made me raise my eyebrows too. Besides, Zil said that mere three minutes after Nog's post. So either he has excellent memory and quick brains, he's a super fast checker (and thinker) or he actually knew the kill before the DL. Very fishy, I think.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I don't think there was an intentional "let's all gand up and kill Sally" bandwagon, more of an "I'll vote Sally, and maybe other people will too, maybe not" bandwagon. If that makes any sense.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by Legate

Actually, and as Rikae had already said, this thing had been used by Cobblers in several games, I believe, or I think I remember being in more than one. It was in fact one thing that was on my mind since the start of Day 1 and I was just waiting who is going to say that. I was quite surprised when by the time I have been around people actually haven't started tossing the idea around, I might have hoped that nobody is going to mention it.

Yes - it probably occured to several of us that the cobbler could do that (me included) but I was really hoping all innocents would have the brains no to say it aloud so naturally when Sally said it I thought it was extremely fishy and I can't blame myself or others thinking it so.

Comments on dead or to-be-dead people:
Sally - well, since people have been questioning it, I can wholeheartedly admit I didn't have any good reason to vote her. Slight detection of fishiness and the cobbler stuff, but that's it. Mostly, I didn't want to see Zil or Nessa go because I thought Zil innocent and didn't like the Nessa wagon. On hindsight, that's rather sad because I'm currently suspecting both Zil and Nessa.
Kath and Ozzy - no idea why they died. Feel like checking their posts but it's already been done by several people so not sure I'd find anything now. Kind of sad to see them go because I like them both a lot and I would have liked to play with them more.
Kitanna - too bad you have to go. I believe your claim and I'll give you my opinion for what it's worth, but we must yet decide whether to lynch you or let you be modfired. I would kind of support the lynch but I'm not sure if we have time to decide on the kill properly. Anyway, also worried about what one more innocent (probably) dying toDay does to our numbers.

Originally Posted by Boro

Ozban, no clue, played with him once before and it looks like a no-trace, but I'm always surprised at packs who go for no-trace over the seer. Maybe this pack feels like they can avoid the seer for a while by hiding in the masses?

Exactly.

Originally Posted by Legate

It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on. That is, if you can pop in at least once in two Days and vote or something in order not to be modfired, I would like to have you here, and perhaps at least chime in with an idea once in a while.

That doesn't sound bad to me.

Aiee why did Kit not tell us who she's hunting? Not sure I trust her judgement (no offense).

Mänwë is around, yay! His post totally confuses me, though.

Away for now, will be back later!


edit: Rikae
edit2: the edit above means "xed with Rikae"

[A Little Green]

Gah. My computer epic-failed yesterDay which is why I didn't vote - the stupid machine quite simply refused to work. I have a lot to catch up on but I'll try my best!

[Rikae]

Regarding Kit, I'd prefer it if we had more time to choose her kill, if we have to do so. Even after two days, when she is scheduled to be modfired, we'll have more information to go on. Trouble is, it would require her to be around to change her kill at that time according to the village, unless she and Nog are willing to have her kill determined by a vote of the village in two days. It would also require Kit to vote toDay to buy time.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Exactly, that made me raise my eyebrows too. Besides, Zil said that mere three minutes after Nog's post. So either he has excellent memory and quick brains, he's a super fast checker (and thinker) or he actually knew the kill before the DL. Very fishy, I think.

That is odd. Not to say he couldn't have looked that quickly and made the post (it was a very short post, after all), but still. Good spot!

I say we let Kitanna alone and try to hunt a wolf today.

[Rikae]

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Nothing suspicious so far.

elronds_daughter - What I've seen seemed innocentish.
Macalaure - He makes sense, but I disagree with him on several counts. Too quick to clear names based on the kills, but that is like
him, so not suspicious.
Shastanis Althreduin - Where is he?
Loslote - I'm really not sure what to make of her. Suspicious, but
I know I always suspect her.
Kitanna - Keep around.
wilwarin538 - I haven't quite decided whether her freak out over
the cobbler hinting makes her look innocent or not.
Nessa Telrunya - Saying I know something as a way of casting
suspicion on me didn't make sense. She is being defended quite a bit
by Cailin, and with arguments that themselves don't make much sense. Would Cailin defend a packmate openly, though? I don't think she would. Will look elsewhere for now for that reason.
Pitchwife - Creepy, and not because he's agreeable. I'll have to take
a closer look at his posts to put my finger on what bothers me.
Inziladun - See Lottie.His first post toDay clearly shows he's paranoid,
but paranoia isn't limited to wolves.
Boromir88 - Mac has a good point - he isn't himself. He isn't his wolf
self either, though.
A Little Green - No read.
Blind Guardian -Seems ok.
Skip Spence - Didn't like his vote one bit.
Mänwe - A quiet one talking about quiet ones?
Valier - No read.
Legate of Amon Lanc - Sensible and creepy.
Thinlómien - Tending innocent.
Aganzir - Tending cobbler.
Caílin - See Nessa.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Be that as it may (and you're right on on count: as a wolf I would be bold enough to make unfounded accusations and "stir the pot" if I felt so inclined), you began all this by implying that a Nessa-wolf would certainly not have dared to say "she knows something we don't", this sort of comment being somehow so risky, so assertive that no wolf would dare try to get suspicion going in such a bold way. Balderdash.

Aye, well, I meant to imply no such thing - I just wanted to say that on Day 1 there is no sense to go looking for an easy lynch, because they usually tend to present themselves - but we all know one needs to be fairly bold to go against you.

[Cailín]

I wanted to look into Loslote and Nessa, because I seem to be swayed by the suspicion against them. I also decided - based on a gut feeling - to analyse Wilwarin and elronds_daughter even though I had taken little note of them before.

So far I only had time for Wilwarin and Nessa. Don't expect these analyses to be like a glass of clear, cool water, though, because my thoughts are seldom quite as organised as some of the die-hards here.

Wilwarin

#77 seems offended by the discussion about roles and behaviour. Tone is somewhat patronizing, which I have rarely seen from Wilwa before. Antagonises more people by “refusing to jump on the Pitch wagon”.
She lists some initial thoughts on people, mostly based on past performance and behavior. Who are Cupcake and Pop?

#83 argues with Rikae, which prompts a vote from Rikae’s end.

#88 agrees with Legate that Loslote’s post looks somewhat suspicious. Confusion about a possible Cobbler hint from Aganzir detected by Legate.

#89 Clarifies her fear of a Pitch wagon

#93 Defends herself against Pitch’s accusations. Says she does not suspect Legate or Loslote yet, though concedes there are some legitimate reasons to suspect Lottie.

#106 Defends herself again, this time against Boro, who was a staunch defender of the roles and rules discussion. Her tone is milder now.

#116 Ah, Cupcake refers to Sally. Wilwarin does not like her post, mainly because of the whole Cobbler thing (she does not mention this explicitly in an attempt to conceal from the Cobbler / Wolves what she obviously thinks is a good idea). She defends Skip and questions Sally’s assessment of Kitanna.

#123 suspects Sally (and has various reasonable arguments for Day 1) and thinks she will vote for her today.

#129 votes for Sally.

#134 again defends herself against Kath, who misrepresented Wilwa’s initial post in her analysis. Defends herself against accusations of defensiveness (always counterproductive)

#160 does not like Aganzir drawing attention to Sally’s point about the Cobbler (which was also Wilwa’s main reason for voting Sally) and suspects Aganzir might not have the village’s best interest at heart.

Today

#171 defends her decision to vote for Sally again referring to the Cobbler incident.

Wilwarin has been quite consistent so far. She does seem fairly defensive – not just of herself but of other people as well – and such behavior always leads to discomfort. However, she was one of the few people yesterday who bothered to build a case – however wrong it may have been – against someone and stated her reasons for her vote as clearly and lucidly as she thought advisable. At the moment I doubt she is evil.

Nessa

#28 starts with some maths. I won’t argue with that.

#55 Confused about Rikae’s suspicion of Pitchwife. Suggests Rikae “seems to know something we don’t”

#64 explains her lack of participation

#147 votes Rikae. Claims her post was misinterpreted and she had meant to accuse Rikae, not out her as a possible Seer. Says Rikae has been jumpy. Unsure about the Legate-is-the-Cobbler debate and the suspicion against Sally.

Today

#211 votes Rikae again and does not think she will be back.

There is really so very little to go on here. Post #55 looks weird, but could just be carelessly phrased. She hardly comments on any of the other players. I have never played with Nessa before, so I cannot comment on her style (to me it looks like she may be relatively new to the game). She has definitely done little to make her look innocent.

[Inziladun]

I would prefer to keep Kit as a known innocent and a thorn in the side of the wolves, but her words seem to indicate she won't be able to do anything more in the game, be it voting, or just observing the thread in order to decide who she should hunt. Her most recent post said it was "the last post she can make", not specifying that only went for toDay, or the rest of the game. She seems convinced she's going to be modfired, and wants to instead go out using her gift.
So, if she's merely modfired, we don't risk innocent blood being spilled with her, but her gift will be wasted. There are five baddies, including the Cobbler. That's a decent chance of her getting one of them.
As far as wolves go, I'm still concerned about Val, Nessa, and maybe Pitch. I think Mac raised some decent points about him.

[Rikae]

Do we know that Kit can't use her gift if modfired?

Even so, we can wait until toMorrow to lynch her... if she's gone now, though, we have no say in who she's hunting, nor do we know it. We need clarification from the NogMod, but what if he can't? What if she isn't the hunter at all? I don't like this.

[Aganzir]

Hey Boro I had a dream Legate mailed someone I study with and told her I had a huge crush on her (I don't). She proceeded to text me to meet her at her favourite bar tonight. Any help?

Now, I'm going to divide people in groups based on what they said of me yesterday.

Found me evil
Mac (I was down as cobbler till he found someone better)
Cailín (voted for me randomly)

Found me good
Shasta (I'm logical and down to earth)
Lottie (I looked almost too good)
Legate ("I am not suspecting Agan - at least not because of what she said, as I believe what she said makes sense. And if she were a Wolf/Cobbler signaling to the Cobbler/Wolves, she would have actually given a more direct hint, I believe. But that is what she does not seem to do, in my opinion.")
ed (Agan doesn't look too bad to me, maybe a little shifty, but I'll have to go back and read through things again)

Didn't reach a conclusion
Pitch ("Agan is daring enough to sort of hide in the open, and I remember an Agan-cobbler who talked about the cobbler all the time; but since our primary aim is not to lynch the cobbler but the wolves, I'm disinclined to vote her for the time being. It's when she starts other people of being the cobbler that I'll get worried about her.")
wilwa (thinks I'm too obvious to be the cobbler which might be the plan)
Rikae (I could be anything)
Lommy (refused to talk about me)

Now, I'm almost certain Mac isn't a wolf. I'm aware I looked cobblerish yesterday. I don't think a wolf would be the first to point it out and suspect me because of it: even though I tend to talk about the cobbler a lot, the wolves simply couldn't be certain it wasn't me.

I'm more concerned about Legate. He seemed to pooh-pooh the confusion around me with "if she was evil she would've dropped more obvious hints!" Legate should realise no real hinting could take place yesterday anyway, so I don't get why he thinks I would've been more direct as a baddie. Basically he says I'm innocent because I didn't do something I wouldn't even have been able to do.

Pitch is interesting as well. He basically says "Agan could be the cobbler but let's not lynch her at least until she starts suspecting others of being the cobbler!" It could possibly be a wolf hinting at a suspected cobbler: "Hey there I see you, now calm down!"

Wilwa reproached me for underlining sally's cobbler thing. Before that she said I looked too obvious to be the cobbler which might be my plan. I find it interesting she never actually seemed to suspect me, though. If you're innocent and someone basically screams cobbler to you, why not act on it?

I find ed's 71 slightly fishy. It's like "I haven't seen anything particularly bad about Agan & Lottie, I should probably go back and check (if I can justify possible future suspicion against them)!"

Originally Posted by wilwa

Agan always refers to unknown people as a 'she', it's her way of protesting against our male-dominated society (at least, that's what I like to think she's doing).

Yeah, for me she is the norm.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Nessa seems off; the "oddsmaking" post just looks like trying to seem helpful. That sort of thing would be understandable in the Endgame, but really, why do that on Day 1, except to say something for the sake of not being a submarine?

I both agree and disagree. It's a good way to seem helpful, but I also think it's good to know where we stand. The wolves are certainly aware of how long they need to stay alive, and so should us.

I guess skip had a point about the seer not leaving trails that point at unknowns, but I don't like it because it can backfire so easily. Skip hasn't played that much yet, though, so I guess past experience might explain it. I'm not feeling overly good about skip though.

Okay then on to today.

I find it somewhat unnerving that within three minutes of the start of the day, Inzil comes in and draws a link between himself and both the dead. A wolf trying to say it before anyone else does?

Originally Posted by Inzil

mainly the Sally-wagon. What were you lot thinking?

That it was extremely thoughtless of sally to post about the cobbler sending her own name first. It's more likely than not that the cobbler had already thought of it, but when it was said aloud on the thread, it minimised the cobbler's risk of death at doing so. One Schuhmacher once suggested on day 1 that the cobbler might do it and he was almost lynched for it, but us wolves basically knew from then on it was him.
As for me, I had just half an hour to read the entire thread and didn't have too much time to think things through. Sally's post jumped out at me more than anyone else's (and just for the sake of it, I didn't actually suspect her for being quiet).

Originally Posted by wilwa

But then Agan went and brought a lot of attention to it, guaranteeing that the baddies saw it (so the wolves may have assumed the name they received belongs to their Cobbler).

It's idealistic to think the baddies wouldn't have seen it - they are usually the keenest readers of because they need to find the gifteds.

Originally Posted by Legate

Of course, there is the possibility that either of the kills was suggested to the Wolves by the Cobbler. However, it would be a rather weird pick, in my opinion.

I doubt it. The wolves couldn't afford to kill the one the cobbler suggested, just on the offhand chance it was the cobbler herself.

Originally Posted by Legate on the sallywagon

I am inclined to believe that some WWs might have very likely mingled with the crowd there.

I can't remember right off who voted for her, but I'm actually inclined not to think so. Would the wolves risk voting for someone who basically said "the cobbler will suggest herself first"?

Aww Kit! That's a pity because I had looked forward to playing with you.

Mac not that it probably matters but I xed since an earlier post of Lommy's, therefore not only with her but also Lottie's vote.

Originally Posted by Mac

When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally.

I didn't - because I wasn't doing "exactly that". I found it way more likely they'd try to establish connection about the same way I hinted to you, and that's the kind of comments I intended to keep an eye on. Sending one's own name is highly risky unless it's discussed on the thread before, and that's why I refused to make fun of you in one of my early posts.

This is ridiculous given our history and all, but at the moment I actually find Mac the most innocent-looking.

Originally Posted by Boro

now that I've seen how the mind of the Alpha Female Scar works.

Originally Posted by Legate on Kit

It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on.

I agree - the longer we can postpone killing the hunter, the better the chances she gets a wolf. But that of course depends on Kit.

Originally Posted by Nessa

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

What exactly is this theory you're talking about?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Do we know that Kit can't use her gift if modfired?

Even so, we can wait until toMorrow to lynch her... if she's gone now, though, we have no say in who she's hunting, nor do we know it. We need clarification from the NogMod, but what if he can't? What if she isn't the hunter at all? I don't like this.

While it's good to consider everything, I think you're either being slightly paranoid or trying to distract us. The chances she was lying are extremely slim - you just don't do that if you have to drop out of the game. Not that I like the lack of information much, either.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by skip spence

This is a question to Nogrod. If Kit is "modfired" will she simply disappear from the game of can she still perform her function as a hunter? Maybe just removing her is the best solution in either case?

Anyone who doesn't post & vote in two Days in a row is removed by modfire after the fact. That is the only rule on modfires. (Although there sure is a principle of charity involved if someone fex. posts a lot and is actively in the game but because of force majeure -reasons or unhappy coincidences is unable to vote in two Days in a row)

Another way to exit the game without getting lynched or killed during the Night is to tell the mod one is withdrawing from the game. In that situation the player is removed in the next suitable narration.

Kit told me she would have to withdraw from the game, but I'll try to get a confirmation from her on the issue of which exact way she'd want to go.


ADD: She is in the game toDay anyway.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, for the next hour or so. I'll see how much analysis I can get done in that time.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

While it's good to consider everything, I think you're either being slightly paranoid or trying to distract us. The chances she was lying are extremely slim - you just don't do that if you have to drop out of the game. Not that I like the lack of information much, either.

I don't want Kit lynched toDay. I can't see it coming out well for this confused a village. Distraction? The whole thing is, actually. Now let's talk about you emerging from the cloak of cobblerishness in which you enveloped yourself yesterDay. We can be sure, at least, that if the wolves got your name last Night, they knew why. That aside, are you saying you did it for reactions? Why, then, is Wilwa suspicious for seeing your plan for what it was (and why, for that matter, am I not? I had the same reaction as Wilwa).
You're giving a stabbing-in-all-directions-hoping-something-hits-home impression which could still be called cobblerish toDay. On one hand, I approve of that strategy; testing out reactions, looking for wolfish defences. Still, there are different ways to do it, I think. I feel as though you're waiting more for consensus than for evil to show itself, which makes me uneasy.
Pitch is suspicious, but a bit too widely suspected. Have his packmates decided to sacrifice him this early? I should be writing a thesis proposal, but I think I'll have to put together an analysis of Pitch first...

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

...she is in the game toDay anyway.

Okay. So if we don't lynch her today, and she sticks to her word, she'll get mod-fired and quietly leaves the game two Days from now. And if we lynch her today she'll take one player with her, for good or bad. Like a said before, think I'd prefer the former alternative. More fun if anything else.

Should return soonish with some thought on the voting toDay and yesterDay.

[skip spence]

Actually I've a statement to make:

I am the real hunter.










EDIT: How's that for post 1000?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back again, few comments on people in order of appearance...

Nessa is at least not very contributive. And the random post about Cobbler (209) was in relation to what exactly?

And there is one person I became worried of when I saw the opening of his post toDay: Skip. And that made me recall that his posts close to the end of yesterDay seemed in some way awkward to me too. All the general talk of the "crowd", basically listing a list of names from whom people could pick to lynch someone, supporting that way general suspicion would be totally Wolvish thing to do. If there is anything that does not fit into the "I will suspect the people whom majority might suspect and go with the flow" scheme, it is funnily enough his suspicion of me.

But just looking at the post overall, from the greeting (which was the first thing that caught my attention) through what I have mentioned above:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Good Day (if you can call it good and day)
(...)
Personally I missed that cobbler-hint thingie yesterDay but reading back I get the impression a few of her voters went for her because of that (Wilwa, Agan, Lommy?). Or with that as a pretext. Obviously it would be interesting to find out if there was a werewolf (or wolves?) among the crowd who was in apparent danger of getting lynched. By the crowd I mean Pitch, Lottie, Nessa and Inzil.

Here I think Nessa looks objectively the worst but I also share Mac's concern about a lupine stitch-up, what with the killing of Oz, who I was also surprised to see killed. A set-up for an easy lynch might might be the explanation. Or that Nessa is a frightened wolf. Or neither.
(...)
Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game. If his ww behaviour was that predictable I wouldn't fear him at all. But I do. Nothing very worrying about Inzil at present though.

Today, and spontaneously, I feel good about Pitch, Rikae and Mac. They all make sense and seem helpful. Though I must question the premiss that making sense is a good sign of innocence.

Getting slightly worried about Legate. Not convinced of Nessa's good intentions either. She was a bit twitchy yesterDay. Also worried about wolves hiding in the crowd. This is such a large village one tends to forget completely about those who rarely comment (and lacks name recognition). Wouldn't be surprised to find at least two among the submarines. But it's always hard to vote for a someone you have no info on.

For instance: The words about Inzil are again the "I don't suspect him - NOW - but he IS dangerous, YOU should lynch him".

And the end - the last four sentences about the Wolves hiding in the crowd - sounds so disgustingly alibistic...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm more concerned about Legate. He seemed to pooh-pooh the confusion around me with "if she was evil she would've dropped more obvious hints!" Legate should realise no real hinting could take place yesterday anyway, so I don't get why he thinks I would've been more direct as a baddie. Basically he says I'm innocent because I didn't do something I wouldn't even have been able to do.

"No real hinting"? Why not? "More direct"? Oh yes, you could have been: you could have done the thing you later rebuked Sally for. That's EXACTLY what I had in mind when saying that you did not drop any direct hint. For that matter, I also didn't say I think you are innocent. It did not make me suspect you, and that's a huge difference, as you can surely understand.

Originally Posted by Agan

I can't remember right off who voted for her, but I'm actually inclined not to think so. Would the wolves risk voting for someone who basically said "the cobbler will suggest herself first"?

Good question. You know, your sharp observations in this post about what the Wolves would think about the Cobbler and so on are actually so sharp that I am starting to think that you have been thinking about it a great deal yourself in your quest to find an ally.

And now the last thing, speaking of the Hunter: so it seems that Kit cannot come back after all? Like, not at all?

I hope she could pop up - and basically what I said above would be the best solution... But if not, then perhaps it will be the best to just leave it be and eventually have her modfired. Because it does not make any difference, in that case, whether we lynch her or let her modfired - or even worse, actually, if we don't know whom she hunts, lynching her will be like choosing a totally random kill.

EDIT: x-ed since Nogrod. NOW WHAT THE???? SKIP????

[Inziladun]

Really, skip? So what does that mean: Kit's trying to get us to waste a lynch on her, instead of getting modfired? I'm not sure that I buy it. How about we lynch you, and you then hunt Kit? That would take care of the question.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't want Kit lynched toDay. I can't see it coming out well for this confused a village. Distraction? The whole thing is, actually.

I don't want her lynched today either, but it's a bit of a stretch to question if she actually is the hunter.

That aside, are you saying you did it for reactions? Why, then, is Wilwa suspicious for seeing your plan for what it was (and why, for that matter, am I not? I had the same reaction as Wilwa).

Yes and no. Fishing for reactions wasn't in my plans until I realised how easy it was in this particular situation.
The thing with wilwa is, she spoke like twice about how I put sally's cobbler point into the spotlight. If I'm innocent and someone who's behaved cobblerish goes and underlines a statement that basically says "the cobbler might send her own name tonight," I'd think "Ah-ha! You got caught! Lynch!" while wilwa hasn't really suspected me because of it. Not that I mind (because I actually am innocent ), but it looks a bit too careful to my liking.

I feel as though you're waiting more for consensus than for evil to show itself, which makes me uneasy.

What do you mean?

Originally Posted by skip spence

Actually I've a statement to make:

I am the real hunter.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Legate

That's not to say that Zil's post didn't make me paranoid about him instantly, quite the opposite. Someone who starts the Day with first post saying "both the kills have something to do with me" is either insane or weird. Of course, it can be just stating the obvious of an Ordo who is just stating facts, and in fact, that's what innocents often do, as they have no calculativeness behind their statements. They often end up lynched for that as well. Nonetheless, paranoid it makes me, but I am not going to put any weight to it, just because of what I have said just now.

I don't like this. Legate goes out of his way to say how suspicious Inzil's first post makes him, and finishes with "I suspect him but I don't really".

Originally Posted by Rikae

Did she? I didn't even see that, but if she did, it's not as if it was her idea. Mac-cobbler did that in a game I think she was in as well as several others here. Hmm.

I did that myself, in the game of epic-cobbler-fail. So it's not as if it's unusual. I'm not sure how Wilwa's defense of her vote strikes me - the tone seems innocent enough, but I can't help but wonder if Wilwa is deflecting attention from the Sally-wagon for some reason.

Legate's #174... something strikes me as 'off' there. I'm not sure what, exactly, but it's the part about "well this is why I suspected Lottie yesterday, but I don't suspect her anymore" when he doesn't go on to explain exactly why, just referencing 'her later posts'.

I've never played a game with Cailin by herself, I don't think, but as of #178 I adore her!

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, Wilwa not mentioning the fact that Sally mentioned the possible cobbler-hinting, lest the cobbler notice.
Looks very shiny toDay, but I wonder why she wouldn't do her best to get Sally lynched if she thought it was such a good case against her, in favor of trying to hide something already in the open. Hers was the first vote for Sally, after all.

Rikae raises a good point here, I think.

Re: Pitch's #183 - Why would a Nessa Wolfrunya be hinting at a Seer-Rikae in the first place? I don't understand it.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Mac worries me because he's been unnaturally passive, for him.

I don't think Mac's been passive at all, actually - in my opinion he's been one of the louder voices.

Re: Kitanna's #195 - oy gevalt.

Originally Posted by Mac

Sally was not a very likely lynch until very late, so if a wolf was on the line, I'm sure a better person to vote for could have been found.

I'm not sure I agree with you. That Sallywagon sprang up awfully late in the day, to be purely-innocent driven.

Originally Posted by Mac

Maybe I'm paranoid, but this sounds like an attempt to cover up the fact that a fellow wolf was in the running yesterDay, too.

I disagree. Eomer is rather emphatic and callous normally - I think this is probably just a playstyle reference.

Originally Posted by Boro

Pitch has a nickname that seems stuck with him forever, Mr. Agreeable, and this usually gets him suspected early and often. With the unexplained uneasy feelings and Pitch being agreeable, I saw the same thing happening yesterday. Maybe he is a wolf, but I'm not his companion.

Hum. After Mac's post calling him out for defending PItch yesterday, all this looks like to me is damage-control distancing.

Originally Posted by Legate

And, there is one thing I really don't like: I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf? But maybe I haven't seen him "normal" for such a long time that... well, never mind. I am not going to continue on that just now, I am merely wary about him.

So, wait, let me get this straight. First you're "paranoid" about Inzil, but then you won't "put any weight to it", but now you're "starting to suspect" him, but wait, no, you're just "merely wary"? Just for clarification.

Originally Posted by Skip

I've seen this sentiment elsewhere and I don't like it. Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game.

Cailin made this point softly earlier, too. I just want to go on record that I agree with the general statement.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Exactly, that made me raise my eyebrows too. Besides, Zil said that mere three minutes after Nog's post. So either he has excellent memory and quick brains, he's a super fast checker (and thinker) or he actually knew the kill before the DL. Very fishy, I think.

Hum. This is... a good point, actually. Could it be this simple?

Originally Posted by Cailin

She has definitely done little to make her look innocent.

I'm not sure about this statement (regarding Nessa). Having to 'make oneself look innocent' implies that one is not in fact innocent - otherwise why make yourself look like something that you already are? Does this mean you suspect Nessa, Cailin?

Regarding Skip and his hunter claim - I don't buy it. I think he was just looking for an epic 1000th post.

Regarding Kitanna - I'm going to voice an idea no one seems to have come up with yet - given that there are currently five baddies and two kills a night, it doesn't really seem fair to the village to handicap them due to inactivity. I personally think the fair thing to do would be to redistribute Kitanna's role. *shrug*

[Aganzir]

Hey people, skip is referring to a fake hunter reveal he once did as an ordo, so no need to get worried. At least that's what I think.

[skip spence]

haha, relax people, just a joke, I'm not the hunter.

For those who didn't play in Lommy's game a few months back, I falsely and foolishly claimed to be the hunter in that game.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by skip spence

haha, relax people, just a joke!

For those who didn't play in Lommy's game a few months back, I falsely and foolishly claimed to be the hunter in that game.

Oh, I well remember that! Don't be difficult, though. As I recall, that didn't turn out so well for the good side.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Actually I've a statement to make:

I am the real hunter.

Okay, so here goes? Well... actually, it makes a lot more sense now. (Originally, I was tempted to also write into my previous post the quote of you saying that we should just leave Kitanna be, which at that time seemed like undermining the Hunter's work and making sure she does not get a chance to hit...)

But now I can't see you saying that you are the Hunter if you are a Wolf, that would be suicide. And aside from that, after Kit is modfired, if it turns out she was the Hunter, we'll know that we can lynch you. So I trust you now. I think it now makes sense that Kit as a Wolf could no longer play and thus tried to apologize to her mates for leaving them... (although why did she pick to reveal as the Hunter and not the Seer?) Anyway, therefore, here goes my starting suspicion. But good. As for you, skip, well, at least hope you will remain as a nuisance for the WWs. If you are careful about picking your kills, try to keep them somewhat obscure and such, then the WWs will fear to kill you and thus you could stay around as a known innocent (after Kit is gone)...

For that matter, now thinking about that, what to do with Kit, then? Since if she is a Wolf, then if we don't lynch her, the WWs will still have two kills. So in fact, it might be the best to lynch her now. What do ye say?

EDIT: x-ed with the bunch and certain silly person. Skip! One more joke like that and I will seriously lynch you!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by skip spence

haha, relax people, just a joke, I'm not the hunter.

For those who didn't play in Lommy's game a few months back, I falsely and foolishly claimed to be the hunter in that game.

Now I actually think I have been in that game, but it didn't occur to me. Honestly, you've got to be crazy!!! We have enough problems as it is. I almost voted Kit actually at the close of my post. So!!!

Therefore, scratch all that I have said in my previous post. So Kit is the Hunter, we should decide what to do with her, and skip, now I wonder if you would dare to joke like this as a Wolf. But right now... bleagh!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't like this. Legate goes out of his way to say how suspicious Inzil's first post makes him, and finishes with "I suspect him but I don't really".

(...)

So, wait, let me get this straight. First you're "paranoid" about Inzil, but then you won't "put any weight to it", but now you're "starting to suspect" him, but wait, no, you're just "merely wary"? Just for clarification.

Basically, you are quite right with the second part: that is a good summarisation. I didn't say that I was suspicious, as you put it in the first part, I was "paranoid", as you correctly state in the latter. Not putting any weight to it, and recently, growing more wary of him. Nothing complicated, really. It is not both parts of the same process, they have been two unrelated instances, his first post to which I was paranoid, and then later I realised I'm starting becoming suspicious of him. Simple as that.

And sorry for triple-posting, but blame the person up there.