WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

Of skip, Legate and Lottie I could go for Lottie.

[Loslote]

Skip is starting to look a bit off, but I don't know that I want to vote for him without having a chance to really look at him. I think I might end up voting Pitchie, simply because there is a reason for it, and I, once again, have no real suspects. Bleh...fine...

++Pitchie

If you're innocent, sorry.

EDIT: xed since Vanilwuffin

[Nogrod]

Dratted pageturn....

++ Lottie

[Eönwë]

++Lottie

Will explain later.

edit: x-ed with many.

[Thinlómien]

It's DL, please stop posting. Pitch has been lynched. Narration to follow...

[Thinlómien]

When the second day in the horrible pit came closer to an end, they decided to do away with Pitch, the furrier. Some of the Elves thought he was the one Shastanis had tried to warn them about, some of them said he hadn't exactly said anything like that and other interpretations of his lost message were more likely.

"I have to say I understand if you want to kill me," Pitch said solemnly. "After all, I have all this fur on me." He pointed to his clothes which were mostly made of beautiful furs.
"This is getting furrier and furrier..." Nerwen mused.
"Very funny," Pitch retorted. "I may be a furrier but under all these furs I'm not any furrier than any of you, actually, I am less furry than three of you for sure."
Ozban exchanged glances with Nerwen. "It might not be getting furrier all the time but it's sure getting blurrier all the time, if you get my drift."
"Stop making silly jokes!" Wilwarin said. "It's getting dark. If we want to kill him as long as we can still see something, we're in a hurry."
"In a hurry to find out if he's furry," Inziladun agreed, nodding sagely.
"But let's not let this turn into a flurry," Boromir said, grinning.

"Now that was outrageously bad!" Pitch burst out. "I've had enough! What do you want to see?"
Without waiting for an answer, he took of his cloak. "Let's see... linings of - squirrel fur." No one said anything.
He removed his beautiful white vest. "The best you can get... ermine fur."
Everyone watched him in dull silence. He laughed. "What about my boots then? Fur linings here too. Blue fox fur, rare and silky."
The other Elves exchanged glances. The man must be crazy. Then he took his scarf, a heavy scarf of rough grey fur, not beautiful but warm and definitely something of a status symbol.
"Do you know what this is?" he asked.
"Err... fur?" Loslote suggested.
"Hey that rhymes..." Nerwen whispered, but her voice was topped by Pitch's shrill shout:
"Yes it's fur. It's wolf fur. You got me, didn't you? Now what should I do? Throttle myself with it?" His tone was mocking, but the folly of the proud house of Fëanor burned in his eyes.
"Yes," said Ozban quickly, before anyone else could say anything.

"So be it! Have what you will and you'll see that an Elf can wear a wolf's fur and not be one himself!"
With these words, Pitch wrapped the scarf around his neck and pulled from both ends.
The others watched him in horror, knowing he would not succeed, some of them wanting him dead all the same.
"Let me give you a helping hand," Wilwarin said, almost gently, and grabbed one end of the scarf. Without any words, Inziladun was there with her, pulling the other end. Soon, Pitch collapsed on the stone floor, breathing no more.

In the disappearing light, they looked at his body, wondering if he would transform into a foul beast. But Pitch's body was not any furrier than any of theirs save the wolf skin scarf around his neck.


~*~


The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1
Pitch (ordo) - driven crazy and throttled in his fur scarf on Day2

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Glirdan - local batty scholar
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Legate - jeweller with an affinity to the colour white
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter


Night2 has started. Wolves may talk with each other and they, ranger and hunter may send me their picks any time.

[Thinlómien]

As the shadows settled on the pit, all the Elves resumed their nightly habits: most of them went to sleep, but four stayed awake. The three werewolves crept to hold their dark council, the Ranger took his net of hair and made his way where one of the Elves was sleeping.

He had chosen a different Elf tonight, one he feared was in danger. He sat by her head and spread the enchanted cloth over her. He leant against the wall, smiling again. It felt so good to do good, to keep up hope in this abode of despair. He fingered his hair, cropped short. He remembered his mother and how she had taught him to use his own body as a vessel of his power. She too had once made an enchanted cloth of her hair although of course there had been nothing to fear in the West.

Then he had started his long path on the lore of power and music, all the ancient arts. People had started to think him a bit weird, but he had never minded. He had strength in him and he could make his beautiful and potent music. It was enough for him, it had always been.

He had almost lost track of time musing his past when he heard the soft paws. He was not surprised or afraid this time, he knew what was to come. So he just kept his calm and his smile - he would manage to save another life. How sweet was that?

"There he is. Apparently sought a bedmate tonight..." an amused voice whispered.
"You didn't expect us tonight, did you?" a second one chuckled. "And we didn't expect to catch such a big fish, did we?"
"No answers, eh? Is our little spell-weaver perhaps afraid?" a third voice said.

A cold dread settled in the Ranger's heart. Finally he realised they had come for him, not for her. He tried to come up with anything in his lore that might help him, but he couldn't think of anything. Not in this dark place, surrounded by these dark beasts. He tried to reach for the net of hair, but a heavy clawed foot stepped on his wrist.

He sat still for an eyeblink and then a powerful paw came whizzing through the air, a wolf's paw hit his head with supernatural strength and chopped it off his shoulders.

In the morning, the Elves found Glirdan's bloody body and his mutilated head in the middle of the pit. Remains of a torn cloth of hair were scattered around him, and when they touched them, they could feel a hint of some great protective power and the presence of Glirdan. The man himself, though, was uncompromisingly dead.


~*~


The Dead
Thinlómien (mod) - murdered in cold blood on Night1
Shastanis (seer) - cast to the pit in the pit on Day1
Pitch (ordo) - driven crazy and throttled in his fur scarf on Day2
Glirdan (ranger) - decapitated by a wolf's paw on Night3

The Living
Green - veteran hunter with a striking resemblance to an opossum
Boromir - incompetent gatewarden
Eönwë - hunter
Inziladun - weaponsmith
Legate - jeweller with an affinity to the colour white
Loslote - young tag-along girl with frizzy hair
Nerwen - young and impatient hunter who makes animal statues of wood and likes the colour green
Nogrod - narcoleptic master-hunter
Ozban - young and naive hunter and admirer of Finrod Felagund
Skip - an admirer of Finduilas's
Wilwarin - hunter

Day3 has started. You know what to do and what not to do.

[Loslote]

...man. The wolves just have all the luck.

Anyway, I'll be around for a very short while, but then I'll be gone for an undetermined (probably long) time. ToDay will not be a good Day for Lottie!Participation.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

...man. The wolves just have all the luck. :

The luck of Gorthaur himself, it would seem. Why Glirdan?, is the question.

[Nogrod]

A rollercoaster-ride...

Okay. My narcolepsy has turned worse, from C.S.I. to 24... I'll be in when I wake up from it, like an hour+. (I lost the last two episodes of 24 last week and they are re-showing them both right now)

See you soon.

Why Glirdy? Indeed. And not taking the "free kill" Nerwen?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The luck of Gorthaur himself, it would seem. Why Glirdan?, is the question.

And should we try to see who he guarded the previous night, or would that be a fruitless endeavor?

Edit: Crossed with Nog...you're going to have to explain how Nerwen would have been the "free kill?" That seems like a pretty strong assumption of who the wolves selected the previous night, as if you know?

[Nogrod]

*Great they have long commercial breaks*

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Edit: Crossed with Nog...you're going to have to explain how Nerwen would have been the "free kill?" That seems like a pretty strong assumption of who the wolves selected the previous night, as if you know?

After Pitch turned innocent (not Shasta's wolf-dream), I thought it was either Nerwen or Legate who was Shasta's dream... and I'm now quite positive it was Nerwen the Night before.

I was writing in a hurry... like I am now. *Goes off to be back*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

First off, props to the Ranger! Great intuition on their part

Agreed. Well done, mate.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.



That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post ). Why else bring it up?

Now, here he says he thinks Shasta dreamed of an innocent Nerwen, and not a Pitchwolf. On the last bit, he was saying that Shasta's precious few words about Nerwen didn't make sense unless he'd dreamed of her. Actually, there could have been other possibilities, a fact I brought up myself to him.
Now others, namely Legate, had also been pushing for the Nerwen stance, so I don't see why they'd have keyed on this.

Some of this next was a post count, which I edited out.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

This had to have been what sealed Glirdy's fate, since I don't think he posted anything else at all that Day. Since he's dead, it would seem the wolves found his description of the save accurate enough to believe he was the Ranger, as proved true.

[Nogrod]

Ok, Jack Bauer is still alive... but the Western civilization, as we know it, is still hanging on a loose thread. *wonders how come?*


Boro, here's my explanation you asked for - and I think it has enough ideas to be shared in length for other people to reflect on.

So I was reading the thread through two hours before the game started more or less secure it was not me whom the ranger saved the Night before - and thus more or less confident I'd be alive toDay.

It all seemed to go down to Nerwen being the one.

Pitchie was not a wolf so that was not Shasta's dream. That was what I thought his "hint" was yesterDay, as you can read from there. His other comments all seemed to be in-discussion like. So where was I wrong?

I still agreed with what you said Boro, that knowing Shasta, he would have left a hint of some kind, and if it was not Pitchie, there had to be another one. So armed with that I went back to the thread and well, there seems to be no better candidate for his N1 dream than Nerwen.

Why so?

Shasta said of Legate that he's okay, for now, because of what he was trying to do (stirring the discussion). Well, a seer would not say that ("for now") of someone he has dreamt of - but rather on someone whom he might check out later. Later he strongly disagreed with him on the cobbler, but I'd not take it as anything else than just disagreeing on a subject. The "for now" seems to propose he was maybe considering to dream of him but had not done it on N1. How he talked of Legate would surely be an odd and inconclusive way for a seer to say "this guy is innocent" - I mean surely the posterity would not have caught that.

Also her suspicion with Greenie was clearly based - underlinedly so - on her thinking Lottie (who attacked him) to be genuine.

What he said about Lottie you all can see was from pure annoyance... and him not wishing to vote for her is a point indeed. (Well, now as I rethink this for the hundreth time I do actually see another scenario here: Shasta dreamt her an innocent and was frustrated seeing her doing what she did - and therefore declined on voting her in the grandiose manner he did, with the risk of worsening his own chances of survival)

Not taking in the latest scenario (which I came to think of only now), it seemed that Nerwen was the clear answer - as he had to leave a hint of a kind.

What I thought was specifically this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler

Now that bolded word seems like unnecessary thing. And add to that, that he made a special declaration later that he is "most okay with Nerwen". It's like two notes on the same thing, Nerwen's innocence.

Keeping in mind that was all he said of others, it was the evident conclusion. And I had just reached that conclusion when the Day broke... and 24 started...



Anyway, I think there are more interesting questions to be made.

Like why didn't they kill Nerwen, or if it was someone else who was protected on N1, how did they come up with killing Glirdan? (Inzil seems to have a scaringly ready answer to that!) Or were they up for Glirdan already the Night before? And if so, then why? Is there any evidence against them from Glirdan?

Or how did the wolves react to the "easy scenario" -voting yesterDay? Did they just join the flock or did they try to get away from it - knowing Pitchie was innocent as they did? I do think the voting was odd, once again, and there were more than enough good excuses for the wolves to vote this way or that.


Okay, it's late and I need to go to sleep quite soon but I'll go back to look at the voting at least before I resign for a while.

[Nogrod]

In retrospect it is easy to say, that the beginning of D2 was really odd as no one seemed to pay heed to the issue we'd face that Day. Though for wolves it was not a retrospective thing: they must have known the situation and its implications from the get go...

There was a serious issue with Pitch to be dealt with - like he himself said that by the Ockham's razor he's the one to check out... and to be fair, we hit the ideas only when we do.


So how did it start?


Boro and I just commented on the ranger-save.

Legate made a long post speculating on this and that but not touching the issue.

Boro says Shasta would have left a hint.

Ozban answers Leg's question on him.

Legate says he didn't find anything from Shasta's posting. (!!!) And comments on Ozban's answer.

Pitchie says Shasta might have hinted on innocent Nerwen because he couldn't have hinted at Pitchwolf (which we now know is true). NB. See how a known innocent acts in comparison!!!

Boro comes with his analysis of Shasta's posting and saying the inevitable: on the basis of Shasta's posting, Pitchie is the one to suspect.

Skip crossposts with Boro and defends his "not willing to disclose the reasons" by saying he thought Lottie was the seer. Wonders if Shasta would have left some hints, maybe Pitch! NB. That was a sneaky way of hinting at it (remember he crossposted) while not committing to it!

Nog speculates about the interpretation of last-minute votes - and goes out saying "too much coming fore puzzling my mind" (I had seen Boro's post about Shasta & Pitch and skip's defence while previewing the post).

Pitch comments on Skip.

Legate makes a list of people - for Pitchie, no mention of his possible role in relation to Shasta! Light defence of him - but in a roundabout way...

Nog comments on Shasta's actions and says him being the seer could explain his suspicious-looking attack "out of the blue" on Pitch - but feels it problematic interpraetation as it would mean Shasta was quite a reckless seer.

Legate answers a question to him by me, wonders why people thought Shasta more guilty than Lottie, then says: it is equally possible Shasta dreamt of Pitchwolf or Nerwinnocent; says Boro's points are convincing but still thinks Pitchie is innocent (what?), believes Shasta dreamt of Nerwinnocent (what? compare to the earlier "equally possible").



Bah... I'm not going to continue on this as it looks like it takes hours and I think I've found enough for the work for now. I really would like to hear what Legate has to say of this record.

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

[Boromir88]

Nogrod good enough for me. When I asked it was kind of a spur of the moment thought, like...wait why would he assume Nerwen was the "free kill?" Not thinking about the lynch yesterday where we now know Shasta could not have dreamt of Pitch.

Also, taking into account what Inzil has found today (readily available indeed!) it appears our Ranger was telling us he guarded Nerwen the previous night. Which the wolves would probably have been looking for and thus were able to target Glirdan.

Edit: crossed with Nog

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

Could be. I believe it was Pitch who brought that up yesterday. The cobbler would have been in a peculiar situation of what he/she should do. Not knowing anyone's role whether to defend him and focus everything away from Pitch or just go on with what was turning out to be the easy lynch yesterday.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Like why didn't they kill Nerwen, or if it was someone else who was protected on N1, how did they come up with killing Glirdan? (Inzil seems to have a scaringly ready answer to that!) Or were they up for Glirdan already the Night before? And if so, then why? Is there any evidence against them from Glirdan?

"Ready answer"? Not at all. I'm going on the assumption that Glirdan had to have done something to paint a target on himself, and since he posted so little, and talked quite a bit of the Ranger and the Ranger's picks, it doesn't seem to need a lot of deductive acumen to find the reason he was picked. My point is that his scenario of "what if Shasta dreamt of Nerwen" apparently had some merit to it, since they obviously did target him. That would seem to look good for Nerwen, also.

x/d with Boro

[Nogrod]

I'm off to sleep, but here's my two cents on the situation.

With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).

Legate and wilwa look suspicious on the account of trying to evade the Pitch-issue. And Lottie, for other reasons (=yesterDays posting with all those scenarios of her intentionally playing the seer after getting caught).

I first added Zil to this list for his "ready quotes" for what the wolves thought... but looking at his answer here I must agree it wouldn't take but a look back at what Glirdy said... something I haven't done myself.

Back later toDay.

Someone should check the voting - and especially the reasons given, and how they relate to what the people have said earlier. I'm not sure how much we can read from those as it would have been easy for a wolf to either back the lynching of Pitch or be against it, but it would be good to have that on our sight for review anyway. Sometimes the small details open the answers...

[wilwarin538]

Gah, and I felt so good about Glirdypie this game.

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.

So now we have a very likely innocent in Nerwen, but no Ranger or Seer, and Nerwen will likely be killed toNight. The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.

I'm gonna sleep, then I have Church in the morning, but I'll be on all afternoon. I'll list some suspects then.

x'ed with nog

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Legate and wilwa look suspicious on the account of trying to evade the Pitch-issue.

Evade? I was one of the firsts to vote for him! I was going on all Day about how there was a chance he was guilty so we had to lynch him to find out. He sadly turned out innocent, but we had a very good reason to go for him.

[Nogrod]

Just a minute... (they always say smoking is bad for you, but once again a cigarette gave me a question)

After the Night-kill is announced people wish to find out who were after the deed and why they picked the one they did. Some go for the previous Day's votes, some go for hints, seer-hints, what have you, some go for general patterns, some for what the killed said, some for what others said of the killed etc...

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Okay, I'm not sure I can express what I want to say... but it just feels odd you only come up with those quotes... and kind of do nothing else to constructively help bringing any ideas to the fore. Blah. Language fails me here.


Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf...

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Why look at Glirdan? Do you really need an answer to that?
And what I found out? That he probably would have looked like the Ranger and that's why he was killed.

As for anything else he said on Day 2, (which amounted to three posts, only two of substance), he did say that he thought the wolves in the Shasta voters would have been the later ones, and he singled out yours and Greenie's. Is that the 'summary' you had in mind?
Also, he questioned Legate some, and said he wanted to "take a closer look at [Legate]". However, since it was known at that point that Glirdan could not be the Seer, I see little chance the wolves would have killed him for that, if Legate was one of them.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf...

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

Well, I'm not sure what you're seeing. My first post I wasn't positive about Pitch, I talked about Nerwen maybe being the dream, but all my posts after that I stressed that Pitch should be the lynch, very strongly. I guess you must really just be looking at the very start of the day (when I only had the one post).

And I agree that the way that lynch went it will be much harder to look at people based on votes. Even if not everyone agreed on his suspiciousness, it was still pretty clear he'd end up being the lynch. It was like no one really wanted to, since the only reason was because of the possibility of him being Shasta's dream (he wasn't overly suspicious on his own) but everyone kind of knew it was still a good idea to do it (even Pitch realised that).

So a wolf could easily vote him and say 'oh well, he seemed to be a seer dream, of course we had to give it a try', while a wolf could have also voted for someone else and say 'Pitch wasn't suspicious enough on his own, and the seer hints were too obvious'. So a wolf could have gone either way and their votes wouldn't look that bad.

These were the votes yesterDay, just to see:

Legate -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Pitch
Greenie -> Skip
Ozzy -> Pitch (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch (3)
Inzil -> Pitch (4)
Skip -> Legate
Pitch -> Lottie (2)
Boro -> Pitch (5)
Lottie -> Pitch (6)
Nog -> Lottie (3)
Eonwe -> Lottie (4)

So all but Greenie and Skip voted for either Pitch or Lottie.

Now those who didn't vote for Pitch. If we hadn't of lynched him we could have wasted a whole other day discussing the possibility of him being the Seer dream. Did some people perhaps want us to kill someone else so that we'd waste another Day talking about Pitch? I'd see that as being something the wolves would like. Get us to kill a different innocent, and than know that we'd go after InnocentPitch toDay. That's two Days safe for them. That may be stretching a bit, but it's not an impossible scenario.

x'ed with Inzil

[Loslote]

Right, well, I was hoping to see a bit more before I got back...as it happens, I generally find myself agreeing with Vanilwuffin and Nog, trusting Zil, and flip-flopping about Boro. I won't have any chance at all to get on in the morning, so I'll have to vote insanely early toDay.

So far, I'm not going to vote for:
Zil
Vanilwuffin
Nerwen
Nog

I probably won't vote for:
Boro, who's been making sense and posting a lot, and hasn't struck me as at all wolvish.
Ozzy, who, for a newbie, is doing extraordinarly well and has given me nothing suspicious to worry about.
Greenie, actually - after looking back over her posts, I'm feeling a lot better about her.

Which leaves:
Steve
Legate
Skip

None of those three am I particularly suspicious of. I dunno...maybe Skip more so than the other three, but still, I don't have much on him.

Oh, and just a note - Nog could easily fit in the 'probably' section better than the 'definitely' section in terms of trust, but since he's making a lot of sense, he got bumped up a section.

[Loslote]

Really? Nothing? Right, well, I have to vote now, so after reading through the thread, I'm going to:

++Skip

Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

[Ozban]

Reading through all that is surely puzzling. I've had few Legate-180s.
Thing is that there is still eleven of us, 3 puppies, 1 traitor, a hunter and 6 ordo's.

From what I think:

trust: Nog
Nerwen
Eonwe

suspects: Legate
Skip
Inzil
Lottie

Puzzled by: Boro
Wilwa

Greenie is somehow quiet, or so it seems, but i don't have anything against her.

I'll be here later in the afternoon. So I'll try to sum more then.

Later...

[skip spence]

Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).

Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 1:

His first post includes this paragraph which in retrospect made my hair stand up, there is something very unnerving about it.

Originally Posted by Legate

It is true what Nogrod said here, that we are lucky for no drastic twists which sometimes come from the minds of those who set-up such schemes as the one we have gotten ourselves into... If there is anything that troubles me now, it is the selection of people, because basically all of you, my friends, are the ones I consider of the most bold and clever, in one way or another, and I would not like any of you to be on the side of evil...

A possible parallel is how Glirdan was caught as the ranger for talking about the ranger in third person... Very clever wolves indeed

He then went on to start this cobbler talk that took up much of Day One as far as discussions went.

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.

Originally Posted by Legate

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Well it's too early for any good suspicions, but this just raised my attention. As with everything, noting this down and looking forward to see how the Day continues, especially from the two...

Later Leggy responds to Greenie who voices concerns that this talk concerning cobblers in general is a distraction.

Originally Posted by Legate

You can read a lot from people's reactions - actually, that's the only way you can read something on Day 1 (since you don't have any evidence yet from the Night-kills) - and that's what I planned to do (instead of just in-character banter or random "I think XY is a Wolf, because I don't like his avvie!"). And people react, speak their minds and so on, and that's the whole point...

Yes, but what can people's reaction to general ideas on how to deal with a cobbler, that we have yet no idea who he or she is, do to help us? I fail to see any use in that discussion, it strikes me as a distraction only.

Legate than post a few longish but pretty hollow posts. No strong opinions on anybody or anything, and seems content to continue to discuss general game-play and such...

Eventually he votes Lottie rather apologetically:

Originally Posted by Legate

Secondly, as for Lottie's vote for Shasta... now of course it might be "they think we are W-on-W, now let's show them they were wrong, and in the best case, they will cease suspecting as and not even lynch any of us toDay!" I mean, just look at it, people really are dropping suspicions after this... I don't know if I shouldn't, too. I would, personally, now prefer to lynch Lottie to shasta, because she was the one who made the vote, so if it was like I just outlined above, then I find her more likely guilty (or if just one of them is a WW, she is more likely to be a Wolf just trying to lynch innocent shasta now, since all of the innocents would have two options, so of course she'd want to make us lynch the other person. But then again, if she is innocent, what else should she do). Why I don't want to lynch her so much, however, is also that she was lynched on Day 1 last game too... but well, well. I will now just take a look at the list of players and see if there isn't any other possible pick...
...
++Lottie

Also of interest is how Ozban votes Legate

Originally Posted by Ozzy

+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

Day 2 to come...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 2.

Starts by saying how bad it is that the Seer was lynched and how good it is that the ranger made a save.

Also singles out three people whom he suspects based on the events of day 1, namely Me, Glirdy and Nogrod.

I think there definitely was at least one Wolf among the Shasta-voters, trying to hide in the crowd (unless it was even Lottie who started it, for example). I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay, skip at least was the kind of a person who seemed to echo a lot of thoughts others said without adding much of his own. There was something that unnerved me about Glirdy, but I have to re-read his posts again, especially what he had said about the Lottie-Shasta thing.

And I am also not quite comfortable with Nogrod's vote - in fact, like I said yesterDay, I am not entirely comfortable with him in general - he seems to me a bit more calculative than he usually is as an innocent. Like, when he said "I suspect Shasta, and although I don't like bandwaggons, I will vote him" - that sounded a bit fake. I would have expected the innocent Nogrod to be sort of more, hmm, self-reflective, like, to ask himself: "Oh really? Is it right that I suspect him if all the village wants to lynch him?" And not to just shrug it like this. I would like to take a look at when he first started to suspect Shasta...

Leggy then has a short exchange with Ozzy questioning his vote and motivations for it.

With post #127 he makes a list, with rather lengthy explanations which basically boils down to him suspecting everyone a little bit without making any strong commitments. He fails to see anything particularly bad about Pitch despite Shasta's trail that most everyone else picked up on. He also maintains that Shasta was not that suspicious.

Here he does acknowledge that Shasta might well have dreamed Pitch though, interestingly...

Originally Posted by Legate

As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

Then he makes a 360 and seemingly concludes that nothing can be learned from Shasta's lynch (though the phrasing here is a bit muddy, not sure if I follow what you mean, Legate)

There is of course nothing good at lynching the Seer, but the worst (which is worse than "bad", in case you were wondering) is that it cannot even give us much material to analyse. There would have been something sort-of positive if we could at least get clues from it. But this is pointless, as I have already concluded that there already is something to find there. See above...

His case agaist Lottie is quite convincing though. Does raise a few good points against her:

Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

[Nogrod]

I have some time in my hands right now and will go checking the voting from yesterDay.

Just two points before I do that (and you can thus see where I'm coming from reading the votes).

I do think that for a wolf the most persuasive option yesterDay was voting Pitchie with the crowd. It gathers the least attention and is easy to explain the next Day. So I'd bet that at least two of our three wolves voted for Pitch - or would be very surprised if they went the other way. Voting someone else would be just too reckless attention-grabbing.

Although I must say that wilwa has a good point there in saying that the wolves (and the cobbler) might have wanted to see someone else lynched yesterDay. If that would have happened we'd have Pitchie along and there'd be the same insecurities on him. But had they dared to try that so openly, grabbing all the attention? I mean they could win one Day but in the worst situation expose themselves, basically cancelling any advance they'd gained by not lynching Pitchie?

Okay. Going in to read back.

[Boromir88]

I found out I can't be here for the DL today and won't have much time, so I'm going to catch up in the thread and then gotta vote.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

I agree with this. They could both end up being innocent, but I see it very unlikely that they are both wolves. I feel very mixed up about the two of them. Some things they say seem very innocent to me, while others jump out as guilty. I think I'll need to take another look at them, but as it stands now I wouldn't object to voting for either of them.

Now for everyone else, I have some vague opinions. I'll be going back through everything soon so this could change, but just off memory and gut feelings, this is where I'm at:

Leaning guilty:

Lottie
Legate
Eönwë (I'll admit, that is purely a gut thing, this could change once I go back and look more closely)

Leaning innocent:

Nerwen
Boro
Nog

Very neutral:

Greenie
Inziladun
Ozban
Skip

[Nogrod]

I'm still reading yesterDay's posting but while doing that I ran to my own post discussing the oddity of D1 Shasta-wagon.

So Lottie gave Shasta the very first vote in the game. Inzil gave him the second personal vote (making it 2-1-1). Technically I'd say those are not yet bandwagoning - which doesn't mean they are innocents.

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

[Boromir88]

Well, that was of little help. I'm having no idea what to think or feel as my creative streak has now been lost with my mind.

Other than I think Nerwen was the one protected by Glirdan the previous night and is therefor most likely innocent. She could still be the cobbler of course (what rotten luck would that be?), but is not in anyway looking like one right now. I'd still like to see more posts from her, because overall I've liked reading her posts.

Wilwa seems a bit feistier and aggressive than her normal charming, relaxing butterfly persona. This could be from a combination of past experiences as a queen wolf with Zeus and now Glirdan's death. But I agreed with her about Pitch yesterday, and despite what Nog said earlier today, she never wavered. A wolf could push for the easy lynch, but I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else. I would have expected the cobbler to waver and be unsure on how to deal with Pitch.

Oi, who to suspect though...all I ever was warry on Nog about was uneasy gut feelings. Feeling better by him today. His voting has certainly been questionable, but I think he always showed fair caution towards Pitch yesterday and tried offering different ideas. One of the wolves then could have piggy-backed on to claim they weren't going to vote for Pitch because of what happened with Day 1 on Shasta.

Although, like wilwa said yesterday that is a completely different situation. At least the way I see it, we had substantial enough reasons to suspecting and voting for Pitch, and Pitch knew it too. He really had no defense, other than having no clue why Shasta suspected him the way he did.

++Eonwe

I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

[skip spence]

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I
If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.

[A Little Green]

Phew, back here at last. Again, my apologies for yesterDay - toDay I should be here more or less until DL.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.

Wilwa's scenario nicely sums up what I was thinking about. There is something off in the exchange between Nog and Inzil. I'll check that more thoroughly if I have time - I want to compose a list of some kind and read Skip.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro and two Skips

[Eönwë]

What!? It seems we must have some psychic wolves... *would glare at Shasta but he's sadly not here any more*

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.

I don't think the Hunter should reveal at all unless in danger of being lynched, as then we'd have a known innocent that the wolves hopefully won't attack out of fear (if this does happen, then hopefully it will be later on, when the hunter's more likely to choose correctly).

Anyway, I'm going to reread yesterDay before I do anything else.

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

What a "funny" thought.

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.

He didn't vote for Shasta actually (D1), but he started discussion that led to it, and then he voted Lottie, but not sooner than first Shasta-vote was cast (by Lottie actually)

I just don't trust him, I will probably vote for him if something big doesn't happen.

Later...

Edit: X'ed from 235 onwards.