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04-13-2009, 07:33 AM | #201 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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... I have absolutely no idea who is evil. Day One's are always really hard as no one has really had time to act suspicious and we don't have votes to analyze.
The bonus votes are going to prove interesting. Both baddies and innocents have reason to use them or to save them... so that could be tricky. It may be more benificial to just see who is throwing their weight around where and then speculate. And as a side note... is deadline in 3.5 hours or 15.5? Edit: x-ed with Kuru kindly answering my question without even knowing it :-D
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04-13-2009, 08:17 AM | #202 |
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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Indeed, if we were taking a conservative, least chance of disaster route today, I would only consider Alonariel, as she has shown no indication of being present or will be present. I believe everyone else on the list has at least made it known they are here and able to participate (now or during Day -1). 99.9% certainty we won't get a wolf, but we would avoid taking the bigger cost in lynching someone in Alonariel's place. Let the wolves make there move and come reconvene tomorrow with some more info.
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an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind |
04-13-2009, 09:59 AM | #203 |
Shade with a Blade
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Sorry I haven't really been around yet. Internet trouble. I'm at work now, so I can't stay, but I'll try to stop by and vote later.
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Stories and songs. |
04-13-2009, 10:28 AM | #204 | ||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Let's see
Brinn's first post is slightly unnerving. I don't know why. Her first posts always are.
I'm watching Kuru. Kent who is in your avatar? He looks almost exactly like a guy I went to school with. Nog looks quite innocentish. Or rather, genuinely helpful. It's impossible to say anything concrete yet, though. Quote:
Firefoot I'm fine with bonus votes being saved for later. But that means everyone, or at least most of us, should do it. I don't want a situation to occur where there are a few people with almost all and some with almost no votes left. Quote:
I can't say I really like your suggestion. The result of today's lynch is a part of the information we will have tomorrow, and it reveals more if we don't take the easy route and kill a non-show. Or well it's also that you suggested it so early and in that way. Hmm almost 24 hours have passed and four people haven't spoken yet. Do you Elmira people have any idea about Alonariel? Some things about the rules. Gríma doesn't have a way to communicate with the baddies in private, but his ability to make gifteds fall ill makes him more dangerous than a normal cobbler. That's why I think it's as important to find him as the wolves. Also, the seer can't find him and should keep in mind that one of her known innocents might in fact be the cobbler. I wonder why Elrond & others decided to send Pippin here. He doesn't seem to be aiding us.
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04-13-2009, 10:46 AM | #205 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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I'm here and reading... I mean, processing the events of the day.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
04-13-2009, 11:12 AM | #206 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Lari should be yelling at her as we speak.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
04-13-2009, 11:19 AM | #207 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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04-13-2009, 11:36 AM | #208 |
Shade with a Blade
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I was thinking I would have to vote now, but I see that Day 1 is 36 hours, so NEVER MIND.
I, like Aganzir, disagree with Kent's fatalism regarding our chances of finding a wolf toDay. That kind of attitude effectively ruins any chance that we do have of lynching a wolf toDay - and it does occasionally happen. Kent says let the wolves make the first move, but I say BAD IDEA. They'll make a clean, trace-less kill toNight, and then we'll still be starting from scratch toMorrow. We need to start actively hunting the wolves now, toDay. Let's see... In general, we should save the bonus votes for late in the game and for when we are nearly certain about a player's alignment. No gambling unless it's absolutely necessary. Ok, have to go. More later.
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Stories and songs. |
04-13-2009, 11:53 AM | #209 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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UPDATE: Alonariel is having internet difficulties and will hopefully be around later.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
04-13-2009, 12:39 PM | #210 | ||
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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Agan
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I would like to clarify I think both you and Gwath have misinterpretted what I meant by this: Quote:
I am not throwing away today, if you want to look at some information look at the responses regarding the bonus votes. I'm still trying to figure out "the Machine of werewolf," but I have noticed a couple things... When there is a new feature (from what I understand this is the first time bonus votes have been used?), baddies will openly speak about how to use the new facet to the game, or how a wolf might use the bonus votes, when they would use them...etc. Amongst the baddies too there might be a consensus to strategy/using the new feature. I also posed the question to see if anyone would make a rehearsed, almost robotic response, as if someone has been discussing bonus votes with buddies for the past 36 hours and has "the answer." Frankly, I have no idea how I'm going to use my bonus votes, but I figured it was a topic of discussion amongst the wolves and thy vampire, so if someone had what looked like a rehearsed answer to the question, that would make me wary.
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an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind |
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04-13-2009, 12:48 PM | #211 | |
Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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It would be the easiest thing in the world not to leave any sort of traces. I dislike the implication that we can't trust the Seer and I don't particularly care for much side distraction off the main course of killing wolves/bat. One has to ask themselves who would be the most interested in getting us skeptical of the Seer and us not focusing on the wolves. Answer, the wolves.
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... |
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04-13-2009, 01:22 PM | #212 | |
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind |
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04-13-2009, 01:36 PM | #213 | |||
Dead Serious
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The difficulty with analysing Day 1 is that there's a continuum problem about WHEN it's worthy to start analysing. Do you start with the first vote? Chances are the vote is completely random, given the limited number of wolves (who have clear knowledge of whom they should be trying to kill) and the complete lack of votes before that to compare it to. Should it be after the first analytic post? Seems silly--the post will just be analysing silliness. Basically, my point is that, in general Day 1s are really not going to reveal anything significant until AFTER Day 1 has ended. While still in the process, Day 1 is inevitably going to have so many unknowable variables that it is essentially worthless to make a serious effort to analyse it during its course. It's only, perhaps, in the last hour or so, when the votes coming flying onto bandwaggons that there's much to grasp for analysis. Quote:
We can, of course, stop the Disney talk and go on to something else... I'm just not convinced that this "something else" has any merit at this time. Quote:
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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04-13-2009, 01:39 PM | #214 |
Dead Serious
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I fear you have taken my previous statement in a more serious light than its intended (if not evident) sarcasm intended. The 'Downs is, indeed, full of quiet, sweet, bookworm ladies. And this game is not lacking either.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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04-13-2009, 02:19 PM | #215 | ||
Leaf-clad Lady
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So. I intend to go to sleep very soon. The problem is, like the problem on Day 1s tends to be, that I don't know who to vote. I've been trying to look for patterns in what's going on. Haven't found much.
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Also, I am slightly worried by those people who haven't showed up. Alonariel has trouble with her internet, fine, but where are Sally and Lari? Does anyone know about them? Anyone around?
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." Last edited by A Little Green; 04-13-2009 at 02:27 PM. Reason: spelling |
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04-13-2009, 02:46 PM | #216 | |||||||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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I like Gwath but I'm not sure he's innocent.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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04-13-2009, 02:58 PM | #217 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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I'm off to bed now. I have no idea who to vote so I'll go by instinct alone and vote
++Aganzir I dunno - there is a chance my sort of bad feeling about Agan is just due to the fact that I disagree with her a lot. I hope it isn't. I have little to say about anyone else. Kent, Form and Gwath seem okay this far. No one stands out as suspicious. Good night.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
04-13-2009, 03:02 PM | #218 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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I think you give Grima too much credit, Agan. According to the information posted on the the side of the wall; Grima can only make a gifted fall ill - once.
I think those infected by the evil orbs, might be smoother this time around. Since they can converse with each other any time they want. Whether or not that will lead to a big difference and change; with harder and possibly easier hunting in some regards... I don't think we should be overly focusing on the extra votes. We all have them - check. Not everyone has the same intentions - check. No one is infallible or omniscient - check. There are too many variables at this time to try and lay out a course of certain action in regards to such votes and usage. If we were all machinery and programed with a certain task in mind, with no possibility for deviation - then I suppose then we could predict when the best time would be to use them. Here, not so much. X'd with Agan and Greenie
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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04-13-2009, 03:02 PM | #219 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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This is the quietest Day1 ever! Sadly I'm not in a position to make it much more livelier as it's midnight here and I have an early morning call. But I've read the latest and need to give it some thought.
Anyone else around? EDIT: My question seems to be answered with a couple of posts...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
04-13-2009, 03:24 PM | #220 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Okay. I see what Greenie is after and I think she has a point there.
Also I don't like some of Agan's comments - like the two last ones from her post just there. Quote:
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But that's quite wavering as yet and I'm not sure I'd wish to vote for the person who has been most argumentative and active from anyone of us here toDay. Given the slender weight of these suspicions, that is. So what, like 50 posts in 28+ hours! And half of the Americans are having computer problems? A few haven't even showed their noses around? What is this? Okay. I'm going to take a risk now. My work starts at the DL but I will try to wake up a bit earlier than usual and read the thread and vote then. With this information I could as well flip a coin but that's against my principles.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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04-13-2009, 03:28 PM | #221 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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*looks tragic*
Ah, kill me, Greenie! Then at least I may follow Thinlómien, whom I loved above anything else in this world! Anyway I don't like Greenie's vote, and not only because it was for me. She says she disagrees with me a lot, but I haven't spoken a lot yet, plus she has mentioned barely any of those reasons. Yes if it was only that I'd probably be giving him too much credit. However I don't want the cobbler to be a known innocent if the seer dreams of him and that's the main reason I brought him up.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-13-2009 at 03:29 PM. Reason: xed with Nog |
04-13-2009, 03:35 PM | #222 | ||
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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I would, but I should get back to studying for my Macro exam in 40 minutes and I have no idea how people play; style and personality I would assume is a factor in this place too.
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an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind |
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04-13-2009, 03:41 PM | #223 | |
Illusionary Holbytla
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,547
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Essentially, I think Kent's theory is sound that the wolves might have a canned response to the bonus vote question... but I definitely think it also ought to be taken with a grain of salt, as I imagine most of the people here have thought about it at least a little bit and had a general idea going into the game of how it might be most useful. Besides, the success rate at spotting "canned vs. candid" isn't always that great... |
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04-13-2009, 04:05 PM | #224 | |||||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Okay I'm slow because I'm busy on MSN at the same time. Quote:
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04-13-2009, 04:15 PM | #225 | |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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Btw, Greenie's vote doesn't count since it isn't highlighted, if someone wants to let her know that (though I assume she's fast asleep by now).
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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04-13-2009, 04:17 PM | #226 | |
Dead Serious
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Furthermore, insofar as the Co-Mod seems to be personally apprised of Alonariel's situation, it seems that the phantom would have known at the time of assigning that she would probably be involved in the game, and though she's the most obviously absent person, at least she has a confirmed excuse, which the rest of our mostly-missing members do not. Of course, I suppose you could be basing your assessment of the phantom's assignation of roles to the one you received, but I'm baffled as to how I should interpret what that would mean. EDIT: X-posted with Brinn and Agan
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
Last edited by Formendacil; 04-13-2009 at 04:20 PM. Reason: X-posting |
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04-13-2009, 04:22 PM | #227 |
Dead Serious
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Now, Aganzir, that's not very nice! Are you a bit sore, m'love, that you're not my ideal soulmate?
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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04-13-2009, 04:28 PM | #228 | ||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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You know there's this poem by Leonard Cohen: "I'm good at love, I'm good at hate/ It's in between I freeze."
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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04-13-2009, 04:39 PM | #229 |
Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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What?
You've posted a ton toDay (at least by toDay's standards). Not that this is by definition a bad thing but...I don't know, Aganzir is striking me as awfully fishy. Unfortunately, due to my schedule today I'm going to have to vote now. ++ Aganzir (0) Out of everyone toDay she seems to be acting the most suspicious to my mind. Its not because she's been talking a lot, its that some of the things she's said haven't made much sense and she's been rather inconsistent.
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... |
04-13-2009, 04:44 PM | #230 | ||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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I hate justifying a vote by throwing around some random generalized half-accusations.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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04-13-2009, 05:12 PM | #231 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Caught up on events.
Shall let Nienna catch up while I think about what I've read.
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peace
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04-13-2009, 05:18 PM | #232 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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I might want to vote and go to sleep in an hour.
I'm thinking of voting for Kuru. With my normal vote. I'm not that enthusiastic about getting him killed or saving myself. It's mostly the title of his first post. If you can't beat em, join em... It has nothing to do with the content of the post and looks like a cobbler hint. I can see an innocent posing as the cobbler in order to confuse the wolves (I've been thinking about it myself, too), but in the long run it's not of much use as it will confuse other innocents equally. I always get into arguments about the importance of finding the cobbler, but Kuru's response to my comment about it seems weak. He indicates that the cobbler wouldn't want to leave traces although in truth it's probably quite the contrary. Normally the cobbler would like the wolves to guess his identity in order not to be killed by them. And when I said it's as important to find the cobbler as the wolves, I didn't mean finding Gríma should become our prior task. I've just been in too many games where everyone has said "we can take care of the cobbler later" and so the cobbler is never taken care of. Also, his post #229 sounds... forced. Or detached. Like, "Ha if she was a wolf she wouldn't question me like that, therefore she's a safe vote, hmm what reasons could I come up with?" Of course the bad thing is that so few people have posted enough substance for me to form an opinion.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-13-2009 at 05:18 PM. Reason: xed with Fea |
04-13-2009, 05:29 PM | #233 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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So just because I'm not here it means you people can slack off, eh? I think not~!
*whips you all into shape* Get to work baddie catching, slackers! I need to scamper around and listen to what's been said toDay before I decide who to vote for (or rather, against) but I shall be in your midst until the close of the Day.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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04-13-2009, 06:07 PM | #234 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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*am now all caught up*
Ok so now that I've read everything so far I still have no real suspicions. Nog was vaugly making me a bit nervous if only because he was so insistent on us all begining to start theorizing and discussing but this may be just a normal Nog thing to do.... I don't know but it just stood out to me. Agan seems like she is acting cobblerish because she is discussing the role a lot but it also seems like she could be the focus of a bandwagon which never really ends well... Kuru's post title thing that Agan brought up was a good point though I don't know if it means anything or if it was just in fun... I will refrain from voting for newbies or from people having internet trouble for obvious reasons. I should be around till deadline or at least near deadline so I will continue to watch and see who's up to what... I have no real strong inclinations for any voting yet though.
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Puddle! Puddle! |
04-13-2009, 06:27 PM | #235 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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++Agan
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All in all, of everybody, I feel worst about Agan.
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peace
Last edited by Feanor of the Peredhil; 04-13-2009 at 06:28 PM. Reason: cleaning up tags |
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04-13-2009, 06:34 PM | #236 | |
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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Formendacil
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This might all be moot now, because it was before all the revelations about technical problems. I am not saying anyone is using it as an excuse (there is a nasty computer virus travelling around the US - I remember it was on the West Coast I think 2-3 days ago), just saying I was going by the rules that if someone does not participate/vote they are modfired and was wondering if we should lynch someone who is going to be modfired, because that would theoretically give us extra days.
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an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind |
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04-13-2009, 06:47 PM | #237 | |
Dead Serious
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Granted, I suppose I might be a bit biased--Agan has indulged my silly side the last couple Days, but I'm willing to vote elsewhere simply on the basis of rewarding Agan for her entertainment value. My general principle at this point (ie: the point where I've no good reason to vote for anyone) is to vote for the players that I can never, ever, make my mind up about. The players around here that fit this bill best are probably Nogrod and Shasta. But I'll readily grant that's a sorry reason to vote for anyone in such REAL circumstances.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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04-13-2009, 06:47 PM | #238 | ||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Grr
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I have a feeling everyone is misinterpreting me on purpose! Nog I'm starting to understand why you tried to be quieter on day ones. Sniff. edit: xed with Form & love him again.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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04-13-2009, 06:57 PM | #239 | |
Dead Serious
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Hmm... that might actually be an interesting gambit: lynching Kent to see if he's a wolf. It's tenuous grounds, to be sure, but that's sort of the prevailing atmosphere.
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I prefer history, true or feigned.
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04-13-2009, 07:03 PM | #240 | |
Wight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 240
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Kuru
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You don't provide any examples, I get the feeling a lot of vague blanket accusations are tossed around on Day 1, but I would imagine any person who is innocent and genuinely wants to help has a logical reason for suspecting someone as "feeling strange" or "not making any sense." But I don't know what about Agan isn't making sense? She's explained the title thing, she made a perfectly relevant statement regarding the seer would find Grima an Ordo. The only inconsistency you pointed to was in your first post, about Froldo or whoever. I don't agree with everything Agan has said (as evidenced by our interaction today), but we should make a clear distinction between disagreeing with someone, and someone "not making any sense." Then saying that not making any sense = baddie.
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