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01-12-2007, 01:02 PM | #201 |
Byronic Brand
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Finally I'd like to note that having read over my sparse posting yesterday, I wasn't critical of Gloanna's lynching. I even semi-endorsed it before I vanished and, moronically, got distracted and didn't come back...I said something to the effect of "I might even vote for Gloanna".
I also did not spend this morning pointlessly "lamenting over the dead"; rather I brought up a possible link between Volo and Nori and/or Bofgrod, which Nori88 seems rather touchy about. This is sinking into a duel which I would really rather not sully myself with, so I will concentrate for the moment upon other suspects, namely the unimpeachable Bomburlass and the apparently naive Voloin.
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01-12-2007, 01:05 PM | #202 | |
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I see two main suspects here, Anguirel and Boromir88.
Ang seems to have gone after Boromir a great deal, and offered little insight for most of Day One, though he did get better later on. As for Boromir88, his Day One mysteriousness seems to have vanished, but his accusations against Anguirel, while possibly believable, do present a problem in that Anguirel's only objection to Kitanna's lynching occurred on Day One, and was mainly more of an observation on her behavior. He later cites this as evidence that Ang and Kitanna may be working together. This does not appear to be the act of a wolf, for if Kitanna dies and is confirmed as an innocent, then the idea of their both being wolves falls apart. Nevertheless, Boromir really strikes me a sodd in that he continues to be suspicious of Anguirel after the fact and twists his words a different way than before to continue to make him look suspicious. I also intend to keep Kitanna's last words in mind: Quote:
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01-12-2007, 01:09 PM | #203 | |
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01-12-2007, 02:27 PM | #204 | ||
Laconic Loreman
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Anyway Valier and Orilin seems innocent...Runi I'm going to wait and see more of. He seems to be rather joyfully sitting back and watching the action. Anguirelshield is probably a smooth conniving wolf. Meneltarbo and Voloin have just started to trouble me. Nobody else has uttered a word today, which taking a look at things this day is supposedly going to be one of the queit ones. This whole day is frustrating.
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01-12-2007, 02:32 PM | #205 |
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Bofgrod won't be back for most of today if I recall, which is annoying because I want to inquisit him rather.
Nori88, you snivelling, contumacious, cocky little naysayer of your lord and master, if you want a fight I'm perfectly prepared to give you one. You're being foolish, and blustering, and starting to have to backpedal, and you're infuriatingly stubborn, and if you are none of these but guilty then you are the equal of the Necromancer himself, and I'm still considering that option. Ha.
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01-12-2007, 03:03 PM | #206 | |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
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Too bad there's no double...triple...quadruple lynchings. I'd like to off all the perpetually quiet ones... They frighten me because I will never be able to really have any even gut feelings about them...well, other than worry.
Menel - Once again your logic confuses me. Why would you ever suspect Boro and Ang together, and basically for the same reason: that they've gone at each other a bit. Odd. Quote:
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01-12-2007, 03:13 PM | #207 |
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Okay, following the advice on avoiding duelists, I've been looking over Runi's posts.
He seems to post mostly in-character stuff the first Day and has a sort of rivalry going with Nogrod that I find somewhat unusual. The people he suspects have mostly turned out to be known innocents, Valier being an exception. He makes a couple of statements about it being strange that Nogrod is agreeing with him early on and suspecting the same people he does. Nogrod suddenly starts fighting with him after Runi has repeated that sentiment. This I find quite suspicious. It resembles something werewolves typically do: If one of them is acting suspiciously, one of its furry friends will "suspect" it and mention said suspicious behavior, hoping the other wolf will cease its suspicious actions. With this in mind, combined with suspicion of known innocents, I find it likely that Runi is a wolf. I'll follow up with an analysis of Nogrod later.
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01-12-2007, 03:25 PM | #208 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Back for an hour+, about. I need to check the situation, but as I saw you Ang had something to ask from me, please do it in near future.
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01-12-2007, 03:31 PM | #209 | ||
Laconic Loreman
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Anguirelshield, stubborn I'll take as a compliment, cocky...a little. But I will not have my integrity insulted. Even if you be of nobler blood than me I will not bow to one who insults my integrity. I feel passionate about my brothers, I will argue for them with passion, and I will die for them with passion. Once one wolf is down they will all crumble.
I tell you this Anguirelshield, son of Gurthain II, if you be innocent indeed this scrap does nothing to help us. It only impeeds us, and for that I will move on. But if you be fanged may the wrath of Darael the Deathless and your entire house fall upon you for your treachery. This does not clear you, but we've had all we need to say to eachother, and now it's time to move on to more constructive things. Perhaps we can save this Day yet. Let me look at the Kitanna voters...there sure be a lot of them: Nilp Menel Thinlo Volo Bofgrod (Excluding me I think that's all of them). The two here that look the worst are Menel and Volo. Menel seems to be subscribing to a lot of things and just simply moving along with everyone. Pretty much a bandwaggoning wolf. And as Bofgrod and Anguirelshield have reinforced there is a village consensus going on...which means we do have bandwaggoning wolves. Menel's post about myself and Anguirelshield being the two big suspects is exceedingly strange. On Day 1 he was doing a lot of 'yesing' He agreed with me that Kitanna looked strange, he agreed with Durelin that it was quiet and that wasn't good...only wolves like quietness. Then he jumps onto a Kath vote. On Day 2 he says I don't worry him as much as before, he's not ready to lynch Nogrod yet and will probably go for Kitanna. All of which was generally what the village was thinking at the time...and this just seems like an over-explanation: Quote:
Menel, Volo is there a connection between those two? Of the Kitanna voters as well, Bofgrod worries me too. I found him suspicious after his role in the Eomi wagon...and let's take a look at yesterday: Quote:
Of those who did not vote for Gloanna yesterday, Runi looks the most strange. A definite safe vote for Valier where he probably wouldn't face a lot of pressure for as Valier has been mostly absent and is a good spot to hide if a wolf does not want to stick their paws in the Gloanna lynching. Edit: x-posted with Durelin, Menel, Nogrod
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01-12-2007, 03:42 PM | #210 |
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Right. Bofgrod:
1. Why were you so quick to take Gloanna's despairing words as an out and out confession? Could you give us some rationale? Do you regret acting the way you did? 2. Why were you so unwontedly happy to follow the consensus emerging about various suspects, even as, to your credit I suppose, you highlighted it? 3. Would you consider it fair to say that at present you have quite a lot of influence in this house?
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
01-12-2007, 04:00 PM | #211 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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What a mess...
Now how come, when my line is innocent all the people find me suspicious at least a couple of Days or the wolves kill me the first or second Night, but when my family-members are cobblers or wolves, they slip trusted to the end if the Seer does not come in between... Well, I'm very short on time toDay and I have a feeling that the wolves wish to get me done with. YestrerDay I had time to fight back, but toDay I won't be. So if they manage to turn your minds to serve their mischevious ends, look closely tomorrow who have been the ones to keep this recurring suspicion of myself rolling. Not probably the ones who are the loudest, but those who add to it some little bits to keep the "case" going. Some answers first, but then I really don't think I should use my scarce minutes on this. (Okay, I know you can't trust my word - but do not go with every whimsical idea some malignant creatures offer you either) Quote:
Ok. I saw Ang had questions to me. I'll leave this here this time...
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01-12-2007, 04:34 PM | #212 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Here's how Glóanna replied: Quote:
Do I regret? Of course, a lot. (What do you suppose a fictious wolf-Nogrod would say? eg. what's the point of the question?) But I must say that I have one special reason to regret it as in the "darkest hour" of yesterDay when I felt that the whole village was getting nuts and running rampant fex. after myself with ridiculous points she felt to be almost the only one who seemed to understand what I was doing and what I meant. I first over-read her as trying to make me feel good about her and brought her back to my list - then her last comments sealed it, to me, then. That was a sorry occasion as at one point I really was beginning to remove her from my list and felt good. 2. I came online quite late as you can all see and was amazed about the common consent that seemed to be building up. So much that I felt a need to mention it in a post so that everyone could see it (if they hadn't already). Why to mention it? Because normally I don't like them. To me they firstly talk of great wolvery than exceptionally witty village. And what concerned me the most was that after reading all there was I tended to agree with the consensus. Had I had like two or three hours then, I would have tried to turn the thing around just to see if there would have been better points (as I very weakly tried indeed at last minutes with Voloin), but I had no real resources and had to play with the things I had - namely looking at Kathin and Glóanna who were my main suspect from the previous Day. 3. I'm not sure. As one who has been forced to spend almost all of the yesterDay and so far all the time toDay on defending myself instead of trying to make reasonable points getting the wolves, I can't say I feel the way the game goes is in my hands in any way. On the contrary: I feel I'm dancing under the command of the wolves. I probably have some influence in this Hall, I'm not the only one who has, we all have it: some people are more influenced by some, others are more influenced by others - and I myself am influenced by you others too; some more, some less. But as long as I only defend and do not "attack", that is of no use to anyone. So yes and no.
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01-12-2007, 05:19 PM | #213 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Warning: This is long. It's an analysis of Nogrod and can that guy talk! This is only Day 1 as well, should get the rest up later, I'm writing it as you read this. However, I won't be around tomorrow (RL) which means I have to do as much of this as I can and vote toNight. I hope to get it finished but with how long it's taken so far it may not be possible. Anyway sorry this didn't go up yesterDay but thanks to powercuts there was simply no way it could.
Nogrod: Day 1: Post 13: Agrees with Rune that it may be the three non-dwarves that are the wolves. Which actually hasn't been disproved since Valier, Lommy and Menel are all still alive. Believes the Twins to be good. Pretty standard opening comment. Post 16: Then says it's too convenient for the non-dwarves to be the wolves, except maybe it's not - flip-floppy and unable to come to a conclusion. Look, I know this is all based around what was obviously a joke, but it doesn't mean you can't get relevant information from it. Don't look at the specific words but what they show. He's covering his back. Post 20: Again covering himself somewhat, and I'm not sure why he says everyone should look at Boro. If both Boro and Nogrod are wolves it may make sense for one to mention the other just in passing on Day 1. That way if one is later lynched and we look back at what they said there isn't an obvious omission. Post 30: He then clears Boro, saying he would not wish to vote for him, but does not seem to have 'looked at' him as he said should happen. About halves the village, suspecting those who had barely posted and thinking those who had posted more innocent. His innocent list consisted of Boro, spawn, Farael, Volo and Ang, though Ang was almost an afterthought. Two of that list are now dead and have been found innocent. If Nogrod is a wolf I think it's likely that one wolf would have been put in this innocent list. Post 34: Mentions suspicion of Gloanna, and says that he does think her suspicious but not overly so. Post 35: Apologises for misspelling Boro's name ... I think. Post 57: Lists the voting so far and the reasons for said votes. Post 61: Wonders how Rune found Menel innocent, saying that if both were wolves Rune wouldn't have said it. Thinks Lommy may be wolvish because she isn't being original, but says he'll give her the benefit of the doubt. Says Nilp and Valier shouldn't be voted for because they haven't had a chance to post. Wary of Durelin and Eomer because they posted little and left early. Post 63: Argues with Eomer saying that analysis is good on Day 1 as it heightens the chance of catching a wolf. Yes it does, but if a wolf is orchestrating the analysis it can lower the chance, and it was Nogrod who tried to move everyone away from the in-character stuff. Post 66: Notes that although Eomer says Day 1 posting has value when looked at in retrospect, Eomer's own posting would tell people nothing, and thinks this suspicious. True indeed. Nogrod pushed for Eomer's lynch and got it, and that's a shame because I would have loved to see whether he made it through the first Night and how Nogrod would have dealt with it either way. Post 67: Agrees with Lommy that Kath seems suspicious for thinking Lommy's post had good points, thus indirectly backing up his earlier claim that Lommy is not being as good a player as she could be. Post 73: I'm a mite confused. He says he doesn't want Boro lynched until the Seer is dead. Why not? If Boro is innocent the Seer isn't about to tell anyone, at least not unless he/she dreams of Boro and then the three wolves. But if the Seer dies without giving such a list there is no evidence to prove him guilty or innocent. Just seems an odd thing to say. Same goes for what he says about spawn. Wants Lommy and Ang alive. Some suspicion over Gloanna and Kath who may possibly be working together, a theory now disproved, and thinks that at least one is a wolf. Repeats suspicion of Eomer and says he is also somewhat suspicion of Durelin and will look at her later. Post 79: Looks at Durelin and mentions that though she mentions Kath's lack of talking she also considers this normal. I think Nogrod is wondering whether this means the two are working together or not. Thinks Naria and Menel were trying to hide in the majority by voting with the tide. Naria may well have been but she was no wolf, the same can't yet be said for Menel. Post 83: Gives a voting list and mentions that the Finns are the ones who will decide the lynch. Post 87: Suspicion of Gloanna, Kath and Eomer. Seems to be downgrading Gloanna as a suspect after what Boro said (taking advice?) and Eomer as well to some extent saying he is too hard to get a handle on. Post 88: Asks if anyone is willing to help lynch Eomer. It's so blatant, he wants Eomer dead. Would a wolf be that bold? Nogrod plays safe a lot of the time but he is a very good player ... I wouldn't put it past him. Post 92: Votes Eomer and tells Lommy not to just not vote. Post 96: Not sure what he's advising people to do, it almost looks like he's trying either to save Eomer or to get a double lynch. What were you up to Nogrod? Post 101: Points out the deadline. Eomer was susbsequently lynched and found to be innocent. Now, it's probably obvious to all that I began that thinking Nogrod guilty so please if you got through it and you're still awake comment on it, give me some perspectives! Right now I've got consipiracy theories a mile long round this guy and it's possible not one is right, I need some input. From Day 1 I think it's possible that Boro or Ang could be fellow wolves if Nogrod is one, but I think it unlikely that both would be. I'm aware that leaves a third slot open, but from this I don't know who would fill that. |
01-12-2007, 05:22 PM | #214 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Ooh actually Volo might fill that third wolf spot. Thinking about that defense of Nogrod earlier and the fact that he turned up in Nogrod's innocent list from Day 1.
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01-12-2007, 05:54 PM | #215 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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This happens alot in villages, the 'loud' ones point at each other and argue incessantly while the wolves coast on by. While we have the numbers on our side we should work our way from least posted to most.
Bofgrod Thorin Angurielsheild Dori88 Beornomien Bomburlass Orilin Voloin Meneltarbo Baggins Runi son of Bjarne Kathin Valier the Grey Bifur Fegalund This is the order of posting as of this typing. I ask those that have superb analyzing take a look at the mid section on down-definitely the top four have been analyzed to death.
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01-12-2007, 06:13 PM | #216 |
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Well, looks like Kath beat me to the Nogrod analysis.
Plus, I've noticed another suspicious characteristic of Rune: his votes (Farael on Day One, Valier on Day Two) have both been relatively safe ones, at least at the time they were made. I'm suspecting that Nogrod and Rune son of Bjarne are both wolves at this point, more so than before. If that's the case, we have one really loud wolf and one much quieter wolf, a good strategy for them. As for the third, I'm not sure what his/her playing style would be, probably something in between Nogrod's extreme loudness and Rune's relative silence. Of course, the last one could even be fairly silent, as many innocents are also being quiet.
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01-12-2007, 06:20 PM | #217 | |||||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I had started to make some general remarks and trying to find fex. why I find Ang and Meneltarbo worrysome - and I try to come up with them somewhat later - but this just calls for some comments.
I'll only comment a few that I think need clarification - and through which I can make some general points. The rest I find just too far-fetched or insignificant to take up (and I don't want to make an essay of this and use the whole night [RL] on it). Either we read English very differently Kathin (which is possible as this is not my native language anyhow), or then you're making a good job trying to twist and intentionally misread most of what I've said... I have not yet forgotten my suspicion of you. Quote:
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And here I would also disagree with Ang's a bit too far-taken suspicion on Voloin's point about leaving myself and Nori to the Seer. I have other reasons to be a bit alarmed with Voloin as I stated yesterDay, but this I find only reasonable. Why kill the players who actually contribute a lot so long as we have a Seer to check them? I have been a bit laid back with Nori88 yesterDay and toDay as I wait for our Seer to come forwards one Day or another. Meanwhile we can concentrate on others just to make it sure we don't lynch a valuable villager ourselves. (Still three wolves left, so even if Nori is a wolf there are two others to catch - surely, if there would be a good reason to suspect Nori I would be the first to vote him, but this far I haven't seen one, at least big enough to take the risk) I hope this answers also to your point on #73 - and to be hones, have you seen a Seer who waits to collect all the three wolves until s/he reveals the knowledge? C'mon! Your comment smelled a wolf a hundred yards as I know you're an intelligent and an experienced player... Quote:
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I mean that was the most cunningly wrong-read analysis I've ever seen (I only commented on the ones I thought were bad enough). Put on a time when she thought I would not be online anymore, now was it? Trying to maintain the suspicion on me with no fear of myself correcting the things or asking people to look at it themselves? Sorry Kathin, you top my list still... and I do hope now that you're not a misguided innocent. But innocents admit their mistakes and turn the other way to actually help the village which side they're on. I have been insecure with you and a few times I have thought whether I should drop my suspicions. But after this one, I just can't. Look at all the people who have been quick to back Kathin's zero-points. There I'm afraid, you will find one wolf more. PS. I was already thinking that I shouldn't mave made this post as it's a bit over-reacting to points that have no merit and thence should not be even reacted, but as I now see how Meneltarbo has been swayed, I must say I needed to made it. But was there a need to sway Meneltarbo? PS.2 Goddammit! Let me do some actual wolf-hunting for a while! 2.40AM here and I'm off to sleep. I'm sorry, the wolves swayed this Day over me and I was weak as I thougt I should defend to gain one more Day. Remember this later...
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01-12-2007, 06:25 PM | #218 |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Part two of the Nogrod analysis - and I've just seen that he posted a few minutes ago. Stay there Noggie! I'll answer you.
Day 2: Post 114: Argues with Boro saying there was no more reason to kill Eomer than anyone else, so accusations of ring-leading and cunning are useless. Not entirely true. Eomer had left very little in the way of a trail and is known to be a fearsome opponent. If Nogrod is a wolf there was therefore quite some reason to kill Eomer over others, especially if he was planning on killing spawn during the Night, as this removes two very strong elements from the game. Also says Boro isn't making sense as he is saying Nogrod is both ring-leader and failing to take the initiative, but the two are different things. One can be a ring-leader without having to make decisions. Plant a few subtle seeds and then sit back and watch them grow. Nogrod waited for someone else to vote Eomer before he did, so not taking the initiative. He then explains what happened in the voting and says that were he a wolf he would have voted earlier. Well how helpful of him to tell us, we certainly won't suspect him if he now doesn't do that! Post 116: Notes a typo. Post 119: Thinks spawn was killed for her ability to analyse and because she left little in the way of a trail - very true. But he then says that she was a second choice, that the wolves must have thought someone else was being protected. What? Yes there's a Protector around (or was at the time) but that doesn't mean spawn wasn't their first choice to kill. If they thought she was the Seer or that she was too dangerous to stay alive they would want to kill her, and if the Protector had made himself useful then so be it, they'd go after her the next Night (assuming he couldn't protect the same person twice in a row). Odd thing to say. Says he will not focus on specific people in case they're innocent. Marvellous way of not leaving a trail eh? Post 122: Replies to Boro's comment that it would be easy to get Eomer lynched in a sarcastic manner, presumably referring to the fact that Boro said he was clever. But again there is a difference. Even if it is easy to get Eomer lynched it takes a clever wolf to clear their tracks. Of course if that wasn't what Boro meant then it does make him look suspicious as there is confusion there. Post 126: Says Menel is suspicious and that he's flip-flopping. We had this argument yesterDay and there seems little point in repeating it. To me what Menel said about this makes sense and it is Nogrod that is making a mountain out of a molehill not Menel. Also says Volo looks somewhat suspicious for supporting him. Post 131: Continuation of that argument. Post 134: And again. Post 136: Thinks one of those who voted for Eomer may have been wolvish, specifically Volo since he thinks Lommy innocent. Points out that any suspicion of Gloanna and Kath disappeared due to the extensive analysis of the voting events from the previous Day. Seems to clear Gloanna and Boro and suspects Kath, Ang, Valier and Menel. Reasons for all of course. Post 157: Gives a score update and asks for people to stop spreading votes. Post 161: After being confronted by Boro about Gloanna Nogrod does an immediate flip-flop and decides that actually he does think she's guilty after all. Post 163: Thinks it odd that everyone seems to be agreeing on certain aspects. Sudden suspicion of Rune and continuing suspicion of Menel and asks that we look at early voters the next Day. Did that happen? I've not read through much of toDay yet. Thinks Lommy yesterDay due to her reactions the Day before around the voting. Says he will vote Kath or Gloanna but will try to look at Valier and Volo too. Post 167: Points out Gloanna's reaction to being suspected and thinks it odd. Post 171: Thinks Volo wolvish because he's looking out for hidden signs, which as a wolf he would be doing in case his fellow wolves tried to give him advice. Fair point except that the wolves probably wouldn't contact each other on the thread since they can do it by PM just a few hours later. Post 172: Says he too was thinking what Kitanna said was a confession of guilt. Post 173: Voting update and says Kitanna's vote makes him think she's guilty. Post 175: Mentions deadline. Post 180: Having dropped suspicion of everyone else he votes Gloanna based on her last posts. The sudden concentration on Gloanna is understandable, but then many people were doing this so it's hard to tell much from that. It seems less likely that Boro would be a fellow wolf, the arguments are just so vicious, but it is possible. Volo again seems possible as a conspirator too.
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01-12-2007, 06:37 PM | #219 | |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
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Definite Suspects:
Kath Menel Volo Possible Suspects: Valier Rune Thinlomien Don't Care: Durelin Nilp Boromir (For Now) Possible Innocents: Nogrod Ang Holby Menel - I find it interesting that you're so gung ho to lynch Nogrod, but you'll shrug off an analysis because "oh, someone already did one." Do you trust Kath that much? Does she speak for you? Thanks, Holby, it's interesting to see how much everyone has posted. I beg to differ that Lommy has really been looked at that closely, though... Quote:
If those three, or any one of them, is/are wolves...well, that's not good. But I think you're harping on them just for the sake of harping on them, stirring up "fear," because people see them as among the "big dogs," the good players, and so the nastiest wolves. Actually, the nastiest wolves are the ones that go utterly unnoticed, and you're doing a good job keeping the attention off them, whether you mean to or not. And personally, I think you know what you're doing. Edit: Cross-posted with Kath. |
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01-12-2007, 06:46 PM | #220 | |||||
Everlasting Whiteness
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Firstly Nogrod I am not trying to twist your words. I am biased because I believe you to be guilty, but there is no deliberate manipulation here.
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Nogrod, believe me, I can write an incriminating analysis without a shred of evidence to go on and fully aware that the person I am analysing is innocent, but that is not what I'm doing here. I am suspicious of you and I'm trying to work out why. I have to vote now and my vote will go to you because, as I believe you said, I have been very one-sided toDay and have focused entirely on you. This is due to a lack of time and the fact that if I don't take the time to look at you properly it will annoy me for the next few Days. ++ NOGROD I have other suspects. Volo is one and Ang another. I was suspicious of Boro but that has abated recently, though if you do turn out to be innocent I will look at him again. I'm sorry I have no time to analyse what Nogrod has said toDay. I will answer Durelin before I go but after that I won't be back.
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01-12-2007, 06:49 PM | #221 | |
Everlasting Whiteness
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Anyway, til tomorrow all.
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01-12-2007, 07:06 PM | #222 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I'd already been somewhat suspicious of you before Kath had posted her analysis, Nogrod. Plus, she didn't mention the primary reason why I had thought you a wolf: The way Rune mentioned you.
I'm not going to take Kath entirely at her word right now, though. I'm probably going to vote for Rune son of Bjarne toDay. My posts about you have been mostly to do with Rune as well; I'm not totally gung-ho about lynching you, I simply find you to be suspicious in light of what Rune's been up to. Keep in mind, though, that this whole Rune-Nogrod connection I've proposed is not the only line of reasoning I've been using against Rune.
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01-12-2007, 07:06 PM | #223 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Kathin dear, you're getting me even more confused by now as I'd need to go to sleep really...
I can't see we're talking about the same posts! Just one before I go as it bears on some general things too... Quote:
Sorry that I have no time to answer your answers. I do disagree them, though (surprise?). But just look at the quality of your points: Quote:
PS. Quote:
And I'm a bit uncomfortable with Ang also, but something of that later toDay as I have slept.
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01-12-2007, 07:19 PM | #224 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid
Posts: 2,254
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Well, I've tried to heed suggestions to look at people other then the argumentative ones, and Rune really does have some wolvish qualities to him. However, it seems that in our haste to argue over Nogrod, whom I mentioned as a possible co-conspirator, the main point of my message has been lost.
Rune son of Bjarne is probably a wolf. I'm letting Nogrod go for the moment, as Kath isn't particularly trustworthy and may be twisting some things. I regret contributing to another set of duelists here. If someone has any insights on Rune, I'm perfectly willing to discuss them.
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01-12-2007, 09:05 PM | #225 |
Odinic Wanderer
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WOW never have one person mentioned me so much and the rest been so quiet. . .facinating stuff.
And yes Boro, I do enjoy waching other people fight from the safty of the croud rather than being in there getting brused. The only problem is that there is actually a bigger responisbility when you just watch. 3 people gives me the creeps here, it is Boro, Ang and Nogrod. They are having a lot of quarrel between them and whenever I will side with one the other will bring up a good counter argument. One of them simply has to be a wolf, maybe more than one. Boro did shoot after sparrows with cannons in his case against ang, but then Ang did use my words be on there extend, both things very wolfish things to do. Nogrod could be a bold wolf. . .well, he is always bold so of course he would be so as well as a wolf. He has an extrodinary talent of taking the lead of a group, it can be a bless or a course and often it is hard to tell the difference until the end. If these are indeed the 3 wolves then I shall hail them for their boldness and level of cunningness, but chances are that there only one or none. As I said I belive there is atleast 1 wolf amongst them, but I could be wrong, I often am. Now I will return to my corner and see how things play out. |
01-12-2007, 09:16 PM | #226 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid
Posts: 2,254
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Well, I doubt I'll be able to thoroughly read everything in the morning, so...
++Rune son of Bjarne
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01-12-2007, 10:08 PM | #227 | ||
Laconic Loreman
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I'm just going to wing out a bunch of random quotes that I find peculiar, maybe they can help me figure things out here...
One point of interest I have found deals with Dancing Spawn...I was going back through to see if there was anything in her posts that would get the wolves to kill her. At first I just thought they wanted to get rid of a good player, but now I'm not so sure: Quote:
A wolf (though I think an innocent would be concerned as well) would want to know about the twins. The problem is Spawn comes right out and explains it here, why were Ang and Kath 'dumbing down' they could have looked at the town records? It wouldn't have been all that difficult. When Spawn came out and pointed to them that no the twins weren't traitors for the wolves, perhaps that gave the wolves exactly what they wanted? They realized the twins were not on their side and perhaps that cued them in that Spawn was one of the twins. This puts some bad light on Ang and Kath. I think Kath looks the most wolvish of the two. Ang I could imagine as an innocent asking such a question so we would know what we're up against. Kath though comes out and gives a false answer about them Saying: Quote:
I'm thinking the wolves wanted to find out about the twins...well they could have checked the records if they wanted to know who's side they were on and what their purpose was. So, why come out and ask, unless to draw one of them out? That's something I odd I found on Day 1, I'm going to go through Day 2...don't know if I'll get to it tonight or tomorrow morning.
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01-12-2007, 10:29 PM | #228 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid
Posts: 2,254
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Just checked back here. Boromir, I hadn't noticed that before, but it certainly looks suspicious to me. As I have already voted earlier, I can't change that decision now, but it's likely that one of those two is a Wolf, most likely Kath. Anguirel seems to be asking a legitimate question, but Kath's false answer could well be a ploy.
If Kath is indeed a wolf, it's likely that Nogrod is an innocent, unless she's trying to betray him in order to gain our trust.
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I ♣ baby seals. |
01-12-2007, 10:36 PM | #229 |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Just popping in, unfortunately...
++Kath And now it's off to bed... |
01-12-2007, 10:57 PM | #230 |
Twisted Taleswapper
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity
Posts: 1,706
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So I am pretty sure that two of the wolves are Balin and Nori (Kath and Rune) All the points about them that were brought up today are sound and I think they need to go now so that we won't be worried about them later. I am not so sure about the third wolf as of yet. I think either the last wolf is a very loud and very bold furry fiend or they're the one that slips under the radar.
Some people are not here today and that makes it hard to get a grasp on them.....and then theres Nilp. Ok so what is so great about Nilp that he can just scrape by with a post a day and everyone pretty much leaves him out of everything assuming he is innocent. I purpose that we lynch Nilp after Kath and Rune. He is of no help and there is that "He has to be innocent" thing. ++Balin(Kath)
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grand return?........ |
01-12-2007, 11:01 PM | #231 | |||
Laconic Loreman
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Here comes a bunch of other things I'm just winging out here.
I think I hastily called Thinlos vote for Eomi the most innocent looking one. Holby pointed out she disagreed and now here's what's strange about it. Post 82 at 9:59 (my time): Quote:
Quote:
Post 150 the next day she comes out to explain her voting. Seems kind of reasonable but I can't get past the fact that she seemed convinced on voting for Kath and Kitanna then something a few posts later (and 20 minutes) quickly changer her mind . Also in 150 by her own admission: Quote:
Now about Nogrod here...I'm always going to be worried about him, but now he just seems innocent me. As a wolf Nogrod I would expect to stay calm, relaxing, and suave. Indeed he had me absolutely and completely fooled, because he was very friendly as a wolf. When my grand-daddy was the Seer he warmed up to him perfectly and even voted for wolf partners in getting them lynched. Point being, as a wolf he had a charm and friendliness about him...as looking quite fair. This time he strikes me as being more defensive, he seems unafraid, and getting frustrated. I sense a genuine frustration about so far this village being completely lost. It could be that he's changing up his style from his ancestors, but the friendly suck-up worked so well for him as a wolf, I don't see why he wouldn't go for that again. Nogrod if you have fooled me again, from now on any future village my children get in with yours I will make sure they lynch you on Day 1. Mark my words. Kath is a very methodical player, she definitely loves analyzing posts, she always seems calm and collected. And that's what she's done so far today. But for the past two days from what I've seen, she's just been after Nogrod. Hmm... Well honestly now I am going to get some sleep so I can get up early enough to finish scrounging through the past few days. Edit: x-ed with Valier...what you've said about Nilp makes me think you're innocent. Unless we see something from Nilp I definitely agree with. Only the wolves would want to keep around Nilp.
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01-13-2007, 01:51 AM | #232 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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A few thoughts with a head that has barely waken up.
I agree with Nori88 with his points on Anguirenshield earlier on the Day. Ang hasn't been contributing a lot to aid in our decisions but has been quick to critizise the decisions made - and happy to show how he disliked the choises (his overtime appearance on Day1 one to lament over Eomi's lynching still bugs me somewhat). Anguirenshield seems to be making a lot from Voloin's statement that the Seer should do the job of catching the identity of myself and Nori88. So much as to call it defeatism. In the same time he goes on advising the Seer to keep quiet. Now I wonder what is this all? And why was Valier the Grey so happy to jump the waggon? I would have awaited much more thorough and independent thought from a wizard... What I find disturbing indeed: the way both Meneltarbo Baggins and Valier the Grey tend to jump in with whatever is said, like windvanes. Although I do admit that Meneltarbo has his personal points on Runi which I find quite reasonable. Indeed Runi's playing style doesn't feel good: he posts regularly but doesn't say very much in his posts and is more than happy to declare that he will be on the side and just look at things from his "corner". I'm still of the opinion that someone should take a look at how the waggons of different lynching campaigns have formed toDay and yesterDay and to look at the "early voters" as I called already yesterDay. I have come in on both these Days some hours after the Day has started and found myself under quite heavy fire in both cases. I would really like to have time to see how that has come about and who built it. If I'm alive toMorrow, I will be looking at that closely - but someone else could do that already toDay. I had totally forgotten that it was indeed Kathin that started the talking about the twins. That would be a clever trap indeed! Saying openly that the twins are baddies and wait to see if someone comes to confidently correct that. It's no proof for the wolves that the one in question is another of the twins but it's a good chance. And as it turned out to be Spawn, there could be seen a really good place for a try. And they indeed succeeded. Still as the moment of my vote draws near I'm getting my doubts again. Maybe Kathin is just too monomaniac to be a wolf? Could that be? She's been drawing a lot of suspicion during the last hours and as I've said before I'm not very happy with this open waggons... Unfortunately I have to vote and I have no time to make a better case to raise someone over her on my suspicions toDay. ++Kathin I'm leaning towards thinking Beornómien and Nori88 being innocent, but would really like to have a confirmation on that from the Seer one Day. If the Seer dies soon, I will immediately start watching them very closely, but as long as the Seer is alive I'll be giving them the benefit of doubt and just hope they're innocents. I hope to see you lynching a wolf and seing you toMorrow. I think I'm asking a lot, but one can always hope...
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01-13-2007, 05:40 AM | #233 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2003
Location: The Party Tree
Posts: 1,042
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Thanks, Dori88, for a better explanation as to why Lommy's vote isn't as innocenet as it appears.
I don't see Dori88 or Nogrod as wolvish. I don't buy that both are wolves and both are trying to gain the villagers' trust by getting the other lynched. The fight between them is so heated that I would think a wolf would've backed off by now. I see both as innocents trying to prove themselves right. ++Lommy
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01-13-2007, 06:40 AM | #234 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Hullo all!
I'm growing restless about Menel. Every thing he says makes me restless and wary. He really seems quite wolvish. Like Nogrod already said, his jumping on every suspicion he (Menel) notices. Unlike Nogrod, I don't give credit to his suspicion of Rune. Isn't that just the most wolvish thing about him? He agrees with about every bigger suspicion presented in the village, but then slimes away from taking sides and choosing which one to follow, and votes for someone he himself thinks suspicious, who is not generally suspected too much? I mean, he makes a safe vote, but agrees with enough suspicions to seem "reasonable" in the eyes of other villagers and to "keep in good terms" with others. He worries me a lot. Boro has good points, especially that one about Kath. I'm inclined to believe him innocent. Ang kind of worries me too. His referral to Kitanna's lat word and slight suggestion that Boro might be guilty in the same sentence just makes me scream "wolf!". Who else but a wolf would really take such words too seriously, or use them to his own advantage? Quote:
As to the two main suspects today: Kath seems pretty suspicious, but I think Menel (and possibly Ang too) look worse. Nogrod is still in my "grey zone". There are some valid points against him, but I'd lean him to be more in the innocent side. His frustration of having to use the little time he has to defend himself instead of discussing theories and making analyses seems genuine enough and I think he has valid points in his defence (though his defence is partly reatliatory attack against Kath.) I also bring you a message from Volo (I know him from RL). He told me: "Tell the villagers (if you have a computer at your disposal), that it's very unprobable that I will be speaking [at all]. And forbid them from killing [me]!" Now, before you jump on him because of that last sentence (for I assume it may sound wolvish to some), I must say that is very like him and his sense of humour, so I don't see it as too incriminating. (Which does not mean I think him innocent.) I'm afraid I must leave and vote pretty soon.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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01-13-2007, 06:57 AM | #235 |
Odinic Wanderer
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A Small Defencive Post
So Valier suspects me because of my playing style. . .acording to her I am more helpfull than normally.
Nogrod sais he agrees. . .but acording to him I post regular, but do not say much. I just can't win can I? anyways I am hardly suprised by Nogrod he always suspects my family, I guess it is because I play so much differently from what he does. I have never been a person to make the long and very analytic posts and francly I do not have much desire to do so. I do belive that they can be helpfull, but when they become the norm I find them more confusing than helpful. Anyways my suspicions remain the same, Nogrod, Boro and Ang are still topping the list.They have a way of of twisting words into their own advantage and to steer this group in the direction they wish. I still am uneasy about Valier, but less so and if she is a wolf I would rate her as a less dangoures one. So I will leave her be until I know more about the trio. Menel I still am thinking that he is innocent, but I am not as sure as before. The reason I thought that he was innocent was because I could relate to what he said and of course I have problems with relating to wanting me dead. |
01-13-2007, 07:15 AM | #236 | |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Just a few things...
Ang, if you've not noticed, I crossposted with Nogrod last evening, so that we actually voiced the thought of Kit confessing the same time. Quote:
Ommmm.... ++KATH Why am I not voting Menel, who I just a while ago named my top suspect? (I'm telling this to you already today so that I don't have to use my time to it tomorrow... ) 1. I'm pretty confident that a wolf-Menel is easier to catch from a slip/flip-flop than a wolf-Kath, and thus she poses a greater threat than he. 2. The Menel-vote wouldn't probably affect anything. I doubt there's enough serious Menel-suspectors to get him lynched, and the vote wouldn't even work as a pressure-inserter, as he won't (or so it seems) be back toDay. 3. I dislike throwing votes in all directions. (This is closely related with the previous point.) 4. I wouldn't be too glad to see Nogrod go toDay, as his points are always soimething to think of and as he isn't looking too bad right now, and by voting Kath I'm making the gap between Kath and Nogrod smaller and thus making it more difficult for the Nogrod-suspectors to get him lynched. May we lynch a wolf toDay, otherwise it's looking quite bad for us indeed...
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01-13-2007, 07:26 AM | #237 |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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Analysis of Bomburlass
Triggered by Bofgrod’s apparent assumption of her innocence (which at this stage, pre-analysis, I broadly agree with) #23 – in-character banter with Orilin #56 – reasonable and practical criticism of Farael’s plan to lynch those who don’t contribute – a plan he often puts forward in some form. #74 – finds Gloanna’s guilt statistically unlikely. Votes spawn for being too diplomatic. #106 – voting record; suspects Beorn. Most substance so far. #109 – thinks spawn was “a safe kill”. #115 – disagrees with Voloin about spawn’s supposed Twin clue #117 – further categorises voting. Suspects the inconspicuous. Maybe a bit rich? #151 – picks up Valier’s use of “special role” #155 – votes for Beorn in the belief that she tried to save a fellow wolf (not clear who). #186 – mourns Farael, tries narrowing down suspects #187 – points out pronoun inconsistency. #189 – dismisses Farael’s posts #233 – votes Beorn. Wrongly describes Bofgrod and Nori’s quarrel as too heated to be feigned; they’ve just, with apparent reluctance, declared each other innocent. Reminds me of the Rapallo Pact... In conclusion – I do believe in Bomburlass’s innocence; she is consistent, thorough, her statistics are helpful and her thinking is clear. However, I suspect she is being used by some more vocal than she, especially, and I’m sorry to get back on a hobby-horse, Bofgrod. I intend to lay out some of my worst misgivings about him and then, probably, vote for him.
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
01-13-2007, 07:34 AM | #238 |
Odinic Wanderer
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hmmm who to vote for. . . I will go for Ang as I will regard it less of a mistake if he is an ordo, than if Nogrod or Boro was lynched.
++Anguirenshield |
01-13-2007, 07:41 AM | #239 | |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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Quote:
Not necessarily a verbose one, I can tell you that. Some of our players, myself included, could publish books of werewolf wisdom if they wanted but have had catastrophic careers! Instituting some kind of elite where the loudest float about on bubbles of each other's esteem, and only the riff-raff are considered voteworthy bar the Seer's intervention, is, and I will not back down from this, utter madness. It places a lot of power in the hands of a vulnerable Seer who may already have been correctly identified by wolves last night. And it's a dangerous principle anyway. If you really believed that you and, say, Nori had a right to walk free of suspicion, then you would be very pompous. Instead, though, I think you have an ulterior motive. What about this bizarre tiff with Nori you've had? Agreed on that I am at best flaky and at worst demonic, you snap at each other for a little and then, stroking your beards, call a gruff stalemate and go back to scowling at me again. This phoney war looks to me like a dance on the part of one party or possibly both.
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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01-13-2007, 07:47 AM | #240 |
Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
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I will vote in half an hour. In the meantime, I'd be very interested to see a rebuttal.
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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