Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart.

... and you would be thoroughly justified in doing so. Rest assured, though, you won't be put to the trouble.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.

To be fair, she did attract two votes yesterday - only one less than the day's lynchee. One from mormegil, who has been pretty consistent in his suspicion of her and one from Shelob, who we now know was innocent (although that, of course, does not mean that she could not have been mistaken). And, if I recall correctly, dancing spawn had her suspicions of Cailin yesterday too.

My own suspicion of Cailin is a relatively new development. It started when I tried to work out why I had suddenly become such a strong suspect in the early discussions of today. Like Nilp, I didn't like the way that Cailin put the case against me, while claiming not to be making an accusation. When I looked back, it seemed to me that she had done much the same thing yesterday with regard to Shelob, while ultimately extricating herself from involvement in the lynching of an innocent. Mormegil's comments today on her therefore struck a chord with me. Although I would emphasise that I am not being swayed by him - I had separately reached the same conclusion.

Hmm, I must vote soon if I am to vote at all today. I have seen nothing to deter me from casting my vote for either Wayne or Cailin. And I am more inclined to vote for Cailin since Wayne, while acting strangely, is unpredictable by his very nature.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.

And finally (for now) ...

Originally Posted by Kath

And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily ...

I didn't react angrily because I assumed that I was under suspicion. I reacted angrily because I was under suspicion - and for pretty silly reasons in my opinion. But I am much calmer now. Thank you.

[the guy who be short]

All quotes are from Cailin unless stated otherwise. This is only from Today. Yesterday shall be analysed as soon as possible.

The first thing I notice is a confused post, amidst which one finds this:

I will not be able to return till about two hours before the deadline.

All these people attacking her and voting early are conscious that she cannot return to defend herself for a long time.

All other accusations of Cailin seem to refer to Yesterday. I will have to go investigate what she said yesterday that is so incriminating. Thus far, her words seem logical enough to me.

I will analyse Cailin's actions on Day 2 upon my return, presumable in an hour.

[the guy who be short]

SpM - You raise some good points.

Originally Posted by SpM

I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.

I, in turn, see what you are saying. But early today, I mentioned that we should lynch some quiet people, and Cailin agrees. Then Gil, who is numbered amongst the quiet, votes for wayne. I think it could easily be an attempt to shirk off perceived pressure onto wayne, who is also amongst the quiet lynching candidates I proposed.

SpM, what is your view on Glirdan? I recall you suspecting him earlier, but then moving on.

Finally, though I do not suspect SpM to be a wolf, a poem with subliminal messages does not make one innocent. I fail to see how expressing exasperation excludes SpM from suspicion of wolvery.


An analysis of Cailin on day 2, in an hour!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

SpM, what is your view on Glirdan? I recall you suspecting him earlier, but then moving on.

Yes, I did suspect Glirdan yesterday - for much the same reasons as you did. And he is by no means in the clear, as far as I am concerned. But my suspicions of him have lessened, largely because, while I see his reasons for voting for me as flawed, they strike me as the kind of reasons that a migusided innocent who has got his mind set on a particular person being guilty would say - see my post #195 for more detail.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Finally, though I do not suspect SpM to be a wolf, a poem with subliminal messages does not make one innocent. I fail to see how expressing exasperation excludes SpM from suspicion of wolvery.

I don't ask, and wouldn't expect, to be excluded from consideration. But I would prefer that people consider the evidence and, if they decide to vote for me, do so with good reason, rather than because they think people do not have enough intiative to think for themseves or because something "isn't sitting quite right".

Aargh! The time has come for me to vote as I won't be back for the rest of the day. With trepidation (in light of the past days' experience) and for the reasons that I have already stated:

++ CAILIN

I suspect her more than I suspect any other at the moment.

If I don't make it through today and you guys end up lynching me, good luck to the innocents and curse you, you fiendish Wolves ...

[Garin]

Now is my most quiet time, for I am working. I'd like to reserve my vote for later to make it more meaningful, although I woulld like to get it over with.
I keep wanting to call Cailin, Anguirel by accident and couldn't understand why. Now I know why, because she seems so ANGry. I expect her to behave with the same bluster when she returns and won't vote for her until she does so.
Also, I propose that any villager that goes three days without voting should receive an instant lynch vote from us the next day. This is unacceptable, I have received condemnation for my relative silence and yet other people are managing to slide under the radar without a vote while the louder SpJ is about to be put on the slab.
This is why Wayne, Marc, Naria, Gil will top my list. Who am I forgetting? Well Kath came in momentarily.

[Naria]

Since I won't be around my computer this aft. I must vote now.

First just a couple of comments: I am silent but not to contribute any less to the discussion. I read over everyone's posts and try my best to understand what that person is saying. If I feel the need to make a big post then I will. If I don't do too much posting then it's striclty because I am confused about what is going on(this would be why I haven't done a real good job in some people's eyes). I am sorry if I am not "living" up to expectations. I usually go on gut instinct, mostly due to the fact that reading between the lines is not something that I am good at.

That being said I would like to bring up the point about using your own head and making your own decisions. I agree with this and will therefore use my own head and judgment(gut).

I find Form's attitude and actions very strange to say the least. He hasn't contributed much besides saying that he isn't a wolf and seems quite unhappy about that and insults the village. I do think that he is acting Cobblerish(mixing confusion in with his posts) and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this. Looks like the voting is going in a different direction(I have read over the reasons for this), but as I said I want to make my own decisions. And I will vote:

++Formendacil

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Mormegil, I get what you were trying to say yesterDay now. And obviously, I even agreed with you, at least, said the same thing using different words. However, I find it quite hypocritical that you first accuse Malka and me because we were ‘going for the easy kill’ (I’m not quite sure what that means anyway – surely you would never find killing easy?) and then you state you wish the weirdos out of the way first, too. I’m not saying I would vote for you because of this, but I rather demand an explanation, because by targeting Malka and me you might also have been going for easy kills (and voting for Valier does not make you appear any less guilty).

Her first comment on Day 2 is an attack on morm for hypocrisy.

Originally Posted by morm

I don't know why but something about Cailin isn't sitting right with me and I think I will watch her closely too.

Good reasoning. And here we seen morm's knee-jerk reaction, without even the pretence of an explanation.

Originally Posted by Cailin

I accept Mormegil might have just voted for Valier to get things going, but Garin put Valier clearly in the lead again. Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

This is Cailin's post that allegedly influenced that lynching of Shelob:

Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish.

That is what a lot of the suspicions seem to be based on. Tens of these comments are made all the time by all villagers. This, in my eyes, hardly points to her guilt.

Originally Posted by malka

Since I doubt all three of those people are wolves, I'd like to point out Shelob's vote (if it hasn't been done already, I've looked over everything but might have missed it). Since she's the only one who voted Garin, it's not getting a lot of attention--we tend to pay more attention to the bandwagons, and I've no doubt she knows this. Her vote is pretty safe in that, as I said above, Garin is pretty much an unknown, and there was no chance of his being killed so it went under everyone's radar. I'm not completely convinced that she's a wolf, but it seems very possible (and, considering past games and the fact that she's alive, likely).

Here's something making me reconsider her innocence. Cailin was the first to mention Shelob's vote, then SpM did so, but this is the first real accusation.

Cailin also claims she is "genuinly concerning about" these:

Kath
Shelob
TGWBS
Garin

Of whom Garin is a fierce critic of her.

Furthermore, she expressed sincere doubt of morm.




My analysis stops there. All I find is more and more evidence pointing at morm. He has it in for Cailin. And it is plain that her mention of Shelob is hardly worth mentioning as a serious influence in lynching her.

Morm has constantly sought to attack Cailin, for two days, with little explanation.

Originally Posted by morm

I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage.

No reasoning on Day 2. Just a vote. Why does morm have it in for Cailin? This, by the way, is the first example I can find of Cailin's alleged thought-steering.

I heavily criticised this comment from mormegil:

Originally Posted by morm

Now while I still suspect Cailin she did bring up some good points in her analysis of TGWBS

To which he replied:

Originally Posted by morm

TGWBSis pestering me, all game seemingly, for responses to any and all queries he may have. What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little.

The thing is, in my search, I could find no reference to this whatsoever. Cailin originally declares she's unsure of my innocence as you can never trust me, then goes on to say she believes in my innocence due to my posting record. The entire thing seems fabricated to me.

I know I was meant to analyse Cailin, but it has really led me off on a tangent and an attack of morm. He consistently accuses her with little evidence, and is behind the entire bandwagon at the moment when there is nothing pointing at her guilt, in my eyes. His fabrications are further reason to suspect him.

Enough so that I will abandon my pursuit of Glirdan and vote

++MORMEGIL

In the hope that others follow my example.



Though it wont look it, this will probably be a crosspost with many people. The last post I can see is SpM's at 5:26. The internet is playing up and I can't refresh the page to see what else may have popped up. Sorry.

[Garin]

Posted by TGWBS: Of whom Garin is a fierce critic of her. (Re: Cailin)

Um, she started it. Plus, I'm not that fierce, she has me beat in that category.

[Cailín]

You are all fools. Pretty much.

(And indeed Garin - I am a little angry. Just because I am always lynched as an innocent and people say I am so 'cunning', while the only time I was a wolf, I did not survive past Day 1. However, I am not sure whether I deserve all your comments and would like to ask you -seriously- to stop making this so personal. For me, it is not. I love the game and can get really into it. I'm sorry if I hurt you.)

I came back a little early... and see Mormegil has managed to convince almost the entire village of my intelligence, wisdom and cunningness. Wow. Thanks. Though actually, sir, I think you far more deserve such descriptions. And though I feel I might be a little prejudiced, since I have been your target for a while... I cannot help but feel that TGWBS might have a point.

I think I now have a fair idea who is who in this village, and yet am afraid to speak up. Whatever I say right now, it seems like it will never be enough. If I act aggressively, Garin will be convinced I am guilty. If I don't say anything, I am sneaky and manipulative.

Mormegil, I think you are a wolf. I think Garin is either also a wolf or just rather blind. I think Spawn might be a wolf. And if she is not, then one of the quiet people. Wayne is possibly the Cobbler.

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man (?)

Hopefully I shall be back soon with a bit more.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Naria

I find Form's attitude and actions very strange to say the least. He hasn't contributed much besides saying that he isn't a wolf and seems quite unhappy about that and insults the village. I do think that he is acting Cobblerish(mixing confusion in with his posts) and I would like to think that someone would agree with me on this. Looks like the voting is going in a different direction(I have read over the reasons for this), but as I said I want to make my own decisions. And I will vote:

Your vote for me, Naria bothers me not in the slightest... but the attitude of both you and the Saucepan Man is... amusing.

You accuse me of being useless and confusing. Confusing... well, I'll admit to that. But useless?

So what!

This, my dear Villagers, is a game of "bandwaggoning, accusations, and lies". I see no reason to include sensible analysis in my posting when my "sensible" analysis, by and large, tends to be off the mark, misleading, and -frankly- suspicious.

I'm somewhat insulted that some of you seem to think me a Cobbler. Seriously, do you honestly think I'd be such a blatantly obvious Cobbler? Give me some credit people! I may not be a genius, but I have some skill in this game... If I were being a Cobbler, I'd be as quiet, normal, and devious as I could be. And you have my full and explicit permission to drag up that quote against me in any future game.

Nay, dear villagers, I am a completely ordinary innocent. Believe it if you like, deny it if you don't. The truth will out!

Now, I have no weighty or detailed analysis to offer regarding anyone. The Saucepan Man asks that I take a closer look at him, and not base my opinions off of his voting record or normal style.

However, I say that these are really the ONLY things we can go off of- at least in the Saucepan Man's case. He is too canny a person, both in general and as a player, to let things slip when he's keeping a secret.

Of course, one can hardly say that voting for known Innocents a Werewolf makes. And, as far as normal style goes, the Saucepan Man has as bad a record as any of voting in completely the wrong direction.

The thought occurs to me... just now... that MAYBE the Saucepan Man is the Cobbler. Past experience suggests that he would be a very quiet, devious Cobbler, nudging things off course rather than causing mayhem. Hmm... yes, I could see him as a Cobbler, if not a Werewolf.

Overall, I see no REAL reason to kill off Saucey today, other than the fact that he occassionally irks me. He seems, overall, to be innocent. And, if guilty, I'd peg him as Cobbler, rather than a Werewolf.

But why listen to me? After all, I'm not exactly setting out to be helpful!

[malkatoj]

I'd like to mention (again) that my vote was CROSS-POSTED with SpM's long rant/defense.

Spawn: Anyone who votes Sauce because of "swaying" looks pretty bad in my eyes now.

It's not just the swaying-it's who the votes are for, too, plus his general attitude. He seems wolfish, and if it's just his normal personality, I would have no way of knowing.

Glirdan: malka - Finds it wierd that Wayne is pulling a Nilp and thinks that Gil's voter for him is even more odd. Wants to point out that, even though she doesn't believe that SpM is a Wolf, he was the one who started the Shelob and Crombie bandwagons. Agrees that we should double lynch, SpM and Wayne preferably. Votes for Saucy because he led the bandwaggoning.

I don't know what I said, but I *meant* that it doesn't necessarily make him a wolf. It seems likely. And I guess I changed my mind about the best candidate for lynching between the post and the vote.

[Garin]

Cailin,
You sound sad and angry, indeed.
I apologize if seem to get too personal, I am just reacting to someone who wished me dead. This is why I tried to keep my mouth shut this game, I forget how young and sensitive some of the Downs members are. Anyways, best of luck to you. I plan to keep to my pledge not to post a retribution vote and hope there is not a double lynch in the making.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wow, a lot of posts. That's great. The bad thing is that I have to vote now.

I shall leave profound analyzing for next Day if I'm not already walking in the flower gardens of afterlife by then. Those who have gathered votes are:

Wayne:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Wayne is possibly the Cobbler.

In that case Gil probably isn't a wolf or then it's a nice bluff, since I'd assume that the wolves keep an eye on cobblerish behaviour and are careful not to get their ally dead. In any case, I'd be glad to know what Wayne is, so we would have one quiet mystery less to solve.

Formendacil: I haven't been suspicious of him and I don't have a reason to start suspecting him now either. Might bear watching in the future, although I believe some things he has said make sense.

Sauce: Hasn't been suspicious thus far.

Cailín: I was really suspicious of her yesterDay and though I still suspect her, Shelob's innocence was a blow to my theory and now I'm not so sure what to think of Cailín.

mormegil: Well, TGWBS makes some good points about morm, but since I don't have time to go through his posts with a fine-tooth comb myself, I don't want to vote for him toDay.

Nine votes have been cast, six are left.

Currently Cailín has three votes, Sauce and Wayne two, morm and Formendacil one. Practically anything can still happen and toDay's voting should be interesting to analyze later since all of the lynching candidates are so different.

I trust that there won't be as many people who don't vote as yesterDay, so I'll make a tie between Cailín and Wayne. I'm interested to see which direction the voting shall go from here.

++WaynetheGoblin

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Innocents:

Nilp
TGWBS
Glirdan
Kath
Saucepan Man

While I support the majority of those, Cailin, I would like to ask why you consider Glirdan to be innocent, taking into account the points I have made against him earlier today.

For myself, I see the werewolves as mormegil, Glirdan, and either Garin or a quiet villager such as wayne, Gil or Marco.

[Cailín]

While I support the majority of those, Cailin, I would like to ask why you consider Glirdan to be innocent, taking into account the points I have made against him earlier today.

Do you want a long analysis or the honest truth? Because of lack of time, I shall settle for the second.

1) You made some valid points against Glirdan. HOWEVER I know Glirdan to be a rather fickle player and not always mindful of each and every word.

2) I believe him.

3) He thinks me innocent. Reasonable or not, this definitely helps.

4) I would never in a million years believe Wolf-Glirdan to be brave enough to go up against the Saucepan Man

5) He made a good impression on me on Day 1 - despite his odd vote - and I believe he merely got himself in to trouble trying to explain that vote.

That is all I am afraid.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I heavily criticised this comment from mormegil:

I thought I had answered this for you my friend but I will explain it again, perhaps more succinctly. What I found in her post was a summary of your posts and therein I found it odd the amount of posts you had given but the low quality of what had been said. Up to that point you really hadn't given much by way of helpful comments. Having said that I am currently inclined to call you one of the more helpful villagers albeit misguided. You are undertaking lenghtly and insightful analysis which is generally helpful. I also commented, if you remember, that since I had posted that I noted the change in your behavior which seems good but could be construed as suspicious. For you are responding or reacting, if you will, to what I criticized in your behavior.

Let me explain more clearly, I saw you moderately suspicious because you weren't analyzing anything but speaking a lot. As a wolf TGWBS you saw that and thought 'oh I better change that so they don't continue to notice it'. Now there is the more benign stance that you simply didn't have much time the first day or two but have since been able to dedicate yourself more fully. I believe the latter but will not forget the potential of first possibility as well.

What I do find interesting is why you are so adamant to defend Cailin? You've associated yourself with her and if, as I believe, turns out to be a wolf you will be incriminated. And that is fine if you are a wolf, but if you are not I beg you to not do so as it will cause an innocent death.

Conclusion: While not fully sure I find TGWBS most likely innocent and that he's being very helpful if somewhat misguided.

My suspicions of Cailin I have posted and stand behind them. She's had a fairly innocuous track record on voting and what she says is moderately insightful but noncommittal. This is behavior I would anticipate seeing in a wolf. This is why I went for her. I've kept Glirdan and others on my radar but she is really sticking out to me. Plus as I've said ever since day 1 she didn't sit right with me. I also stated that on day 1 so you accuse me of following up on what I proposed? That seems a bit off the mark to me. I would rather have somebody declare their intentions and stick to it if they find it justified than not.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

3) He thinks me innocent. Reasonable or not, this definitely helps.

This may be a bit pedantic but come on doesn't this appear wolfish to anybody else? You want to keep him around because he thinks you're innocent?

This does not appear be innocent to me at all!

[Cailín]

Wayne - Wayne
Gil - Wayne
Malkatoj - Saucepan Man
Glirdan - Saucepan Man
Mormegil - Cailín
Nilpaurion - Cailín
Saucepan Man - Cailín
Naria - Formendacil
TGWBS - Mormegil
Spawn - Wayne

Yet to vote:

Garin
Cailín
Marcolie
Formendacil
Kath

Just addressing another issue: my comment about SpM and Spawn has totally been misinterpreted. I was hoping to encourage everyone to make up their own mind… in a rather unprofessional way.

Mormegil - whatever I say, you will never believe me. But - is being non-commitical (just because you are honestly clueless) really worse than to keep acting on instinct when that will lead the village to its doom?

About Glirdan - I said I was just being honest. I know myself. And really, I think everyone is more inclined to believe those who seem to believe you.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by morm

Plus as I've said ever since day 1 she didn't sit right with me

And that is what your entire argument against Cailin comes down to! Through the last two days, all you can state is a bad feeling, and dress it up with minor attacks that could be applied to anybody!

She's had a fairly innocuous track record on voting and what she says is moderately insightful but noncommittal.

As compared to the immense commitment and insight offered by posts from Gil, wayne, Naria and marco?

Nothing would please me greater than you coming up with an actual accusation based on some sort of logic, allowing me to believe in your innocence, morm. But until then - well, you're as plain a wolf as I've ever seen.

[Garin]

Unfortunately, I have a meeting in half an hour and I am torn in my voting. I want it to resonate but I am not convinced in either direction. I will avoid the whole coin tossing routine because it nearly got me lynched.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailin

But - is being non-commitical (just because you are honestly clueless) really worse than to keep acting on instinct when that will lead the village to its doom?

No it is not, but I don not believe that I am clueless. I am not act on instinct alone. I have attempted to give my reasons as to why I suspect you and as you say I won't believe you, it seems that you and TGWBS won't believe me.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

As compared to the immense commitment and insight offered by posts from Gil, wayne, Naria and marco?

Ah, but there is one major difference, Cailin is being vocal. Now read more so you know what I mean. A moderately vocal person is less noticeable than a loud or silent person. We all comment on the silent and louds but rarely do we say 'oh look so and so is being neither loud nor quiet...they must be mother bear. No, furthermore it's a large group of people. Now the difference between Cailin and say Kath is the manner of their posts. Cailin is giving the pretense of being helpful and yet not committing to anything. Kath may not be the best example but you get my meaning....perhaps I could contrast her to you, although you are becoming one of us loud mouths (welcome to our fraternity ) But the difference is that at least you are stating something and sticking your neck out to be seen. Cailin has yet to do that and fits perfectly into what I expect to see in wolves.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Garin

Unfortunately, I have a meeting in half an hour and I am torn in my voting. I want it to resonate but I am not convinced in either direction. I will avoid the whole coin tossing routine because it nearly got me lynched.

I would recommend not being late but also voting. The lack of voting will increase suspicion of you and not provide the village with help. I care not which way you vote though as I stated I feel Cailin is guilty, I think that everybody should vote every time.

[Garin]

I wouldn't mine if Wayne were to die, but I have to back away from my sudden sympathy for her and go for for the most wolvish. I still remember her reaction to Valier's death and how she presumed it made her innocent. It seemed like a calculated wolf bluff. Methinks Valier followed her to a certain doom.
These are unretractable, right?
I tend to be sympathetic at the last moment and I wish her the best.

++Cailin

[Kath]

On the subject of non-voters I agree we need some system that discourages this. I don’t feel that double lynches are the way to go, but perhaps being bumped off by the mod if you have no reason might be. It’s probably too late to implement that though.

Cailin suspects Garin on account of his being constantly mentioned by Valier who was killed during the Night. Now, if we think that Valier was killed because she was thought to be the Seer then I’m not sure we can then suspect Garin, as it would be a brave wolf that killed someone who had been pointing fingers at him all day. Now it looks like she is accusing spawn and SpM (which is I believe how some people read that) but she is in fact just warning them of their ability to sway votes. This is a fair point as those who speak a lot are of course going to have more of an influence over the village than those who don’t, but it doesn’t mean they’re wolves. Thinks morm, Garin and spawn are wolves. I am inclined to agree about morm, but am less sure about Garin, and very unsure about spawn. Odd little list there. Thinks Glirdan innocent.

Formendacil turns up to insult the village and then flounces off. People have been accusing him of Cobbleresque behaviour and I must say that posts like that do make me wonder. Answers those who have been suspicious of him with flippant remarks and says he is too lazy to bother keeping up with the game but claims that were he a wolf he would bother. Warns against SpM, though reasoning is based only on the past. Disregards Naria’s vote and reiterates his warning about SpM. Not much reasoning but claims SpM could be the Cobbler.

Glirdan attacks SpM, though from what I can see he has no real reasons. The fact that SpM accused him through the Day but did not vote for him is odd, but he was not the first to vote for Shelob, so half the argument is missing. In answer to TGWBS he claims that his vote for SpM was to prevent both bandwagonning and double lynching (had he voted Valier), though it has been proved that the latter would not have occurred from his vote. He defends his vote by saying he suspected SpM all day anyway. After TGWBS catches him out, he claims that he has now noticed this and had previously miscounted the votes, now the two posts were 10 minutes apart so it is possible he went back and checked, but it could just be a shoddy defence. Tries to analyse Wayne’s vote and I agree with the idea that he could be trying to pull a Nilp, and thinks Gil is just voting for the sake of voting, which again I think is fair. Doesn’t agree with TGWBS that Nilp should be considered innocent but other than that thinks both he and Cailin are not suspicious. Not keen on Naria because she does no analysis or malka because she suspects one person but voted for another. Thinks morm has everything absolutely right, which from the bit he analysed means suspecting him is the right thing to do! Says nothing SpM has posted seems odd, but still doesn’t trust him – no reasoning here. Votes SpM because he was the first to vote for Shelob and Crombie (is that right) and has been too defensive.

TGWBS really isn’t happy about these voters who won’t affect anything, though admits that he voted for Shelob due to this and was proved wrong. He defends Nilp, and fairly I feel. Doesn’t suspect anyone who has voted for 2 innocents twice already, feeling that they’re just hapless innocents who don’t know any better, and agrees with Cailin about suspecting Garin. Is mostly suspicious of those who have remained quiet. Calls Glirdan out on his statement that a vote for Valier would have caused a double lynch. Would like to vote Glirdan, Wayne or Gil, due to lack of reasoning and insanity. Points out that those attacking Cailin know she can’t defend herself for a long time. Thinks Gil is trying to push suspicion off himself onto Wayne because the latter is quiet. Doesn’t suspect SpM. While analysing Cailin, can only find evidence that points to morm being suspicious due to his reactions and not explaining his reasoning for his constantly attacking Cailin. Votes morm, and from the analysis he did I can see why. The lack of explanations and almost vendetta like behaviour has me bothered. Attacks morm again for lack of logic and reason, and again I agree.

Wayne appears, apologises and votes for himself.

Gil appears 2 minutes later and votes for Wayne because he has no time. Says he thinks Wayne is a wolf and is trying to bluff us all.

Garin begins by refusing to defend himself against Cailin because she is mean. I’m not sure that is exactly fair, all she did was show that Valier had accused him in her posts. Says he voted for Shelob to save his own skin and agrees that the non-voters should be got rid of. What he says is perfectly understandable, it’s the way he says it that gets people on the defensive. Doesn’t like the idea of a double lynch and isn’t convinced that malka is innocent. Is happy to let Wayne die because he didn’t vote yesterDay and because he gives no reason for his vote. Decides to ignore Cailin’s aggressiveness (which I have yet to see) and says he will vote either Wayne or Gil because he won’t vote in retaliation. Refuses to vote SpM, wants to kill those who aren’t participating. If anyone’s aggressive I’d say it’s this guy right here! Thinks Form and Nilp innocent. Agrees with spawn that the Wayne-Gil thing seemed almost prearranged. Claims Cailin is very angry though I’ve not seen that.

Malka ensures she knows who’s dead Ah! It was malka that accused SpM of starting bandwagons, so my earlier comment about that being impossible is now directed at her. Wants people not to vote with SpM so he cannot control us, but does not think he’s a wolf. Well, ok, leaders aren’t always good, but as he says himself, we do need talkative people! No, we don’t have to trust them, but at least they’re saying enough that we can make something out of their words. And people have their own minds, whether they vote for someone another has already voted for is their own decision. Is quite keen on the idea of getting rid of Wayne and SpM via a double lynch, though she wants the whole village to agree to this first, which would be a good way of covering her tracks if this were done and both were innocent. Wants to get rid of Wayne but instead votes SpM ‘for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row’. Now either she has not understood the basic concepts of bandwagonning or this is one bizarre vote.

Morm sees Glirdan as very suspicious because of his argument for voting SpM instead of Valier, which I agree is pretty dodgy. Thinks Form is behaving oddly, again I agree. Wants to kill Wayne to remove the confusion he causes and while I think this may be an idea, making it into a double lynch I do not like. Double lynches are just too dangerous. Is then bothered by TGWBS’s requests for him to shed light on some of his previous comments, and seems overly annoyed about it. If the request was repeated then it was because TGWBS had received no answer, and so needed to ask again. However, he does answer, saying he found Cailin suspicious because she spoke a lot but added little, but then says she isn’t doing that anymore so his suspicion has abated. Then says he will continue to watch Cailin, but now seems to have no reason for doing so. Wants to keep malka under observation, in case her vote for Aiwendil was more than an accident, which I feel is a good idea, as while it could be an innocent mistake, it could be a bluff, though it is unlikely. Doesn’t understand the suspicion of SpM, and so looks at Glirdan and malka as suspicious as they have not really explained their votes. Thinks Cailin is trying to influence the village gently so as not to be seen doing it, now since she hasn’t made all that many posts at this point I’m not sure that’s fair. Votes Cailin based on his earlier reasoning. Since I found that flawed I don’t really think this a good vote. Thinks TGWBS innocent but misguided and stand by his accusation of Cailin because she is non-committal. I find this odd as I think she’s been pretty stable in her suspicions.

Naria explains her absence which she had previously warned about. Says she won’t analyse people since others do that but will post her thoughts. I would ask Naria that you do post your analyses, as those from others may be biased. Doesn’t like the double lynch idea. Thinks Form is suspicious and acting Cobblerish. Votes Form. She never did come post her thoughts about people, she may have forgotten but I find this odd.

Saucepan Man finds Valier’s death odd, and concludes that the wolves must have thought she was the Seer as there seemed no other reason. Therefore she must have accused a wolf, and this would point to Garin and also Wayne. Wonders if it was for a frame-up, but thinks this too much of an effort, and I agree, especially with it being so early on. Has a little rant to get things out of his system and that’s all good. I know I complain about loudmouths but that’s only because people don’t tend to look at them as being suspicious, and in this game that certainly isn’t the case! Is angry with Form for insulting the village, especially since he has offered few contributions of his own and those he does look decidedly suspicious. I must say I agree with this, Form is behaving very oddly. Defends not voting for Glirdan saying he didn’t want it to be a reactionary vote and that he found Shelob more suspicious, fair enough. Another one who is shocked at the voting turnout yesterDay, it was abysmal. Questions Glirdan’s having changed his mind over who to vote for and doesn’t think his answers to TGWBS’s questions really work, and again I agree. Also thinks Garin has been behaving rather arrogantly, but does defend him a little against Cailin, since he is obviously not going to do it himself. Feels that malka is innocent because she admitted her mistake rather than trying to cover it up. I’m not so sure about that. It sounds right though, I think I’m just getting paranoid! Would vote Wayne or Gil because they’re not helping but agrees that there is nothing concrete on them. Still thinks malka innocent. Disputes Glirdan’s logic, fairly I feel, as his logic does look flawed. Doesn’t think morm suspicious. Looks at TGWBS and Cailin because they brought up the suspicion against him, and is more worried about the latter because he thinks she may be subtly influencing the village. Thinks Nilp innocent but Form suspicious, I’m agreed on both points. Thinks spawn is talking sense and I agree but for that bit of confusion I mentioned. Narrows his options down to Cailin and Wayne, thinking that a wolf Wayne might try a Nilp to stay alive, but thinks it unlikely that both would be wolves so wouldn’t double lynch the two. Explains the development of his suspicion of Cailin, and fairly I feel, except that I don’t agree that she is trying to influence the village and so can’t accept that. Still unsure about Wayne. Also still unsure about Glirdan but thinks sticking to one person is the sign of an innocent rather than a wolf. Votes Cailin because he suspects her most. I respect the vote, as I understand how he got there with his reasoning, but as I don’t agree with the reasoning I can’t agree with the vote.

Marcolie apologises for her absence and claims ignorance for her lack of a vote.

Nilp thinks SpM and spawn are innocent, though perhaps not for good reasons. Thinks the wolves are killing the quiet ones so we will lynch the loudmouths for them, and if we continue in this vein that might just come true! Thinks those wanting SpM dead may be wolves, and so is looking at Glirdan, malka and Form. Thinks Cailin may indeed be influencing people subtly. Votes Cailin because he suspects her and because she already has a vote so it will be of the most use, though I’m unsure about that second point being a particularly valid argument.

Spawn warns against trying to escape responsibility for your vote and says those who vote SpM because of swaying will look bad to her. I agree, people have their own minds and can choose whether or not to be swayed by another’s arguments. Finds Glirdan and Cailin suspicious as they hung back on both days to observe the voting. Isn’t keen on the double lynch unless it rids us of two useless innocents, in which case perhaps Wayne and Gil? I wasn’t clear on that. Votes Wayne to make a tie. Odd but she says she wants to see where the voting goes.

Well, that got long! My apologies but I needed to really get a feel for what was going on today. Now, having looked through all the posts and putting my own viewpoint on things others have said my suspects have boiled down to:

Morm
Garin
Wayne

And I will vote
++MORMEGIL

Because I find his lack of reason and logic when he continually demands that from the very person he is voting for a bit hypocritical. Also other reasons that I have mentioned through this post but won’t reiterate because this is already so long I fear you’ll have fallen asleep long before this point!

Btw, didn't bold because this already took me an hour and I don't have time!

[Cailín]

I feared it would come down to this. I did not want the wolves to be able to get rid of me during Day time. So enough. I cannot be saved anymore, I fear, but tell me what to do, please. Should I make it a double lynch?

I am the Ranger. And a failure, too, but the Ranger no less.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I feared it would come down to this. I did not want the wolves to be able to get rid of me during Day time. So enough. I cannot be saved anymore, I fear, but tell me what to do, please. Should I make it a double lynch?

I am the Ranger. And a failure, too, but the Ranger no less.

Ranger?

Well that's no good... Can't go killing the Ranger.

Regretably, that means voting off Wayne. And while I hardly think Wayne a Gifted, he's- in all probability- an Ordinary Villager, and killing those off is never good, if you can help it.

But we can't help it...

++ WayneTheGoblin.

By the way, if this is a desperate move on your part, Cailin, to save your Wolfish skin for yet another night, I shall be very affronted. Just so you know.

[malkatoj]

So current votes:

SPM: 2
-Glirdan
-Malka

Wayne: 6
-Wayne
-Gil-Galad
-Spawn
-Formendacil
-Cailin
-Marcolie

Cailin: 4
-Mormegil
-Nilp
-SpM
-Garin

Formendacil: 1
-Naria

Mormegil: 2
-TGWBS
-Kath



*edited to include the last two votes*

[Cailín]

No Formendacil, it is no lie. This was the only way I could ensure to be able to do my job for one more Night - even though I shall die: protect the Seer. Thanks for believing me.

++WAYNE

Sorry Wayne. But you are suicidal and I have no choice.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Wow

I disearve to be killed for lack of helping this village
however, I'll try to do my part still.

And I'll vote now for

++Waynethegoblin

in order to have the possibility to kill a wolf instead of the ranger.

Cailin probably won't survive the night, but we still shouldn't kill off known innocents.


I need to risk Cailin being a wolf trying to hide behind that mask in order to try to not kill off the known innocents.



edit: cross posted with Cailin though it doesn't matter

[WaynetheGoblin]

im dead yes. I hope the wolfs win and the villagers lose you will lose villagers.

[Cailín]

Huh - well, I hope at least one of you intended to vote for someone else than Wayne. Otherwise, I should probably have kept quiet.

Edit: cross-posted with Wayne. Well, he does sound like the Cobbler.

[mormegil]

Cailin, I am so sorry. I had no idea and I hope that you can forgive me. Ack! This is why every game I tell myself to be less forceful and yet I do not do so. I'm sorry and I hope that this doesn't lead to our doom. I am sorry!

[Garin]

I am the Ranger. And a failure, too, but the Ranger no less.

I believe you Cailin. Now, after Wayne's 'retarded' post I see that I have made a horrible decision, I didn't know my meeting would get out early and I could have waited longer before voting. I shhould have gone with my initial statement long ago to vote for Gil or Wayne.

[Cailín]

Well, it is almost worth getting killed just to see everyone apologising.

Blah. No matter, Mormegil - whether you are wolf or no. Been there.

[Meneltarmacil]

Villagers, please cease posting. The votes will be totaled and a death scene posted shortly after this post.

[Meneltarmacil]

"I'm a wolf!" shouted the town geek, wimp, and nerd. "Lynch me!"

"Good luck with that," Nilpaurion Felagund remarked.

"Why exactly should we lynch you, as opposed to the last suicidal mainiac?" asked Formendacil.

"Because this +5 Amulet of Lycanthropy Detection glows in my presence?" WaynetheGoblin offered.

"Good enough," said Kath. "Lynch the wolf!"

"Hey, this isn't fair!" Nilp shouted.

Naturally, Cailín agreed with the decision to lynch the geek, wimp, and nerd, as she would survive. The villagers grabbed Wayne and hauled him off to the gallows.

"This won't work," protested Wayne. I'm wearing a +3 Necklace of Life Preservation and a +5 Cloak of Choking Resistan---GACK!"

The villagers had already hung him, revealing him to be a perfectly Ordinary Villager.

Once again, the villagers didn't have much luck.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 11

Night 4 beginneth. Ranger and Hunter, please stop PMing. Wolves, please commence PMing. Wolves, Ranger, Hunter, and Seer, please send me some names.

[Meneltarmacil]

Cailín paced back and forth nervously, watching for any sign of the Wolves. As the Ranger, it was her task to protect the villagers from wolf attacks. She suddenly heard a loud CRASH from behind her and turned around to see what had happened.

At that moment, two of the wolves sprang out of the shadows on cue. The third one had provided a distraction for the Ranger. Cailín drew her sword to battle them, but the third wolf leaped on her from above, knocking her down.

The wolves, however, decided not to kill her just yet.

"So, she thinks she's a mermaid, huh?" one of them said to the other.

"She'd better hope she actually has gills," the other one said.

With that, the wolves tied her to a large rock and threw her into the sea. As she was not actually a mermaid, she drowned.

In the morning, the villagers gathered in horror to see Cailín's armor and weapons lying on the ground near the cliff with a note from the wolves describing what had transpired and adding that the village was doomed. There would be no more protection from wolf attacks in the Nights to come.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 10

It is now Day 4. Villagers, please begin posting. Hunter and Ranger may now PM each other; Wolves may not.

EDIT: Actually, the Hunter and Ranger may not PM each other, due to the fact that the Ranger is dead. Oops.

FURTHER EDIT: Removed some names...thanks, morm.

[mormegil]

I feel horrible for the role I played in Cailin's death. I knew she was acting odd but I didn't think at all that it was because she was gifted. She seemed much more wolfish to me. I've been thinking for the last day and I really don't know where to go now. I'm feeling a bit of a lack of confidence in my abilities and really am unsure of who might be a wolf now.

The comment yesterday caught my attention from Formendacil that said something like 'wouldn't he be smarter than act the way he is if he were a wolf'. Given I think Formendacil a very intelligent person bu I just don't see that he wouldn't act that way if he were the wolf or cobbler. He thrives on bluffing. But again I hesitate to go after somebody due to the tantamount mistake I made.


Edit: Menel you still have Wayne and Cailin on the living list.

[Gil-Galad]

oh wow... we lost our first gifted... and wayne was just playing stupid... don't know why, just lost all hope... well maybe jsut don't listen to me anymore...

[malkatoj]

I'm about to head off to my dinner of awesomeness, so I don't really have time to make a detailed post, but I figured I'd drop in.

Cailin's death, tragedy as it may be, is hardly a surprise--as a known gifted, she would be first on anyone's list. However, this leaves us with absolutely no trail. Anyone (well, any wolf) would have killed her so we don't know who they are from it.

My suspect list right now consists of TGWBS and Spawn. SpM's moved down quite a bit as his defense was well-reasoned and not just a 'hey don't lynch me!' post. I'm also growing more suspicious of Gil-Galad, simply because his posts don't help anyone at all, though I still think it more likely that he's a cobbler trying to distract us.

I have absolutely no idea when I'll be back on, but I'll be looking carefully at certain people (and everyone, actually, but some people more than others) before I vote.