Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by malkatoj

Cailin!

Go read the announcements thread, it's nothing I can help.

I already read it, dearie. Don't worry, I did not vote for you and for now have absolutely no intention of doing so. Not that it clears you, or anything.

I don't get what you don't understand about me? Can I help you out in any way?

I just have absolutely no clue where your allegiance lies. The one moment you say this, the other moment it's that. You're quite capricious. Like a kitty.

[Meneltarmacil]

Alright, I'm back. As for why Lhuna has not cleared herself in my eyes, I think that regardless of Nilpaurion Felagund's identity *heh heh*, she should have realized that he was just following his usual pattern. She would know better than to vote for him...unless, of course, she *heh heh* thought others would follow... And besides Gil-Galad, she was the only experienced one to vote for Nilp.

I also find your reasoning against Valier to be sound; however, I'm going to most likely vote for Lhuna. And booby-trap my house some more...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Menel

she should have realized that he was just following his usual pattern.

But should you not realize that things like this angers Luhna, she (like my self) often wants to vote wayne when he is just beeing him self. So acctually Luhna is just beeing her self, should she change just because Nilp is acting wierd as ussual ?

[the guy who be short]

Menel's logic holds firm.

++Lhuna

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Hmmm. Lots has happened while I've been at school.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Azaelia (despite her disturbing silence... she's always an innocent)

Well. Thanks for the vote of confidence... As for the silence, as I have said many times over, I am a student and therefore have school and homework to deal with five out of seven days a week...and work two days a week. So I have few openings in my schedule. But I've been through all that before.

However, to take a Nilp-ish turn, I don't want to be considered innocent just because I "always" am. That's not reason enough. I am, of course, innocent, as I have been in the past...but I don't want that to be the only reasoning behind the idea, because you could, for all you know, be letting a wolf slip through your fingers. (Of course, I'm not one, so that point is moot, anyway).

Ok... Enough about me. Let's talk about the rest of you. I'm not inclined to suspect people on grounds of silence alone, as I know what it's like not to have the time to get online. What I have a harder time dealing with is input that just serves to muddy the waters, make things more confusing, or is walking the line between meaningless and nonsensical. So for now, I'm not going to suspect Malkatoj on grounds of silence.

I also have reconsidered my suspicion of Menel, on the grounds that I have re-read my musings about killing Kath to appear innocent, and I think that was really rather stupid of me. Ah well. It made sense when I wrote it.

Cailin is a little suspicious to me, but I feel inclind to think, for now, that Kath expressing suspicion of her probably means she is not a wolf.

I feel rather suspicious towards Valier, because she's posted some, but I still can't get a good handle on her. She agrees a lot (which isn't a bad thing necessarily, as some people do have good ideas), but we're not getting much new material from her. This could be simple inexperience talking...then again, it could be something more. It is also partially instinct, and I can't say why. Sometimes, you just get a feeling about the way someone's playing.

Garin sends up a red flag, too. I feel like he's playing cleverly, but there's something off, if you know what I mean. He sounds reasonable, but he seems to be playing things close to the chest.

Naria is a concern simply because I can't get a good sense of where she's coming from...I'm content to let it slide for now, since she also hasn't posted much...but if time goes by and still I feel like something is missing, she may get a vote from me.

That all being said, I think I am going to vote for Valier, but I am going to wait and see what else develops for a while.

ETA: Cross-posted with Rune and TGWBS.

[Kuruharan]

This list was compiled after post 205, so it is probably a little dated now.

Alcarillo - Cailín post 163
Lhunardawen – Eluchil post 168
Amanaduial – Lhunardawen post 169
Nilpaurion – Cailín post 172
Farael – Garin post 195
malkatoj – Lhunardawen post 196
Rune – Garin post 200
TGWBS – Lhunardawen post 204

Totals
Cailín-2
Eluchil-1
Lhunardawen-3
Garin-2

(Somebody please correct me if I’ve made a mistake.)

With regard to Meneltarmacil’s argument against Lhuna, I’m uncomfortable building a case on how people react to Nilp. That is why (at this moment) I don’t care for the idea of lynching Lhuna. Nilp’s so strange that he beggars rational reaction. Even if we lynch him and he proves to be a wolf, I’m not entirely sure we could tie him securely to anybody else (which sounds like a darn good werewolf strategy, now that I mention it.)

At this moment I’m not sure I want to inject another candidate into the mix. We’ve already got four with votes and a possible fifth. Whatever happens, I don’t think we want more than one person to be lynched and if the voting stays close that could happen.

Cailín-I’m not particularly suspicious of her myself. Unfortunately, I can’t think of a real reason for this. If she is lynched, we might learn a bit.

Eluchil-Has largely managed to avoid notice. That worries me.

Lhunardawen-I don’t particularly want her to be lynched today. I don’t find the case against her compelling. She wasn’t the only one to vote against Nilp yesterday…

Garin- I’ve always been suspicious of Garin. He’s always seemed a bit crafty to me. That makes me nervous. If I vote for one of these four, he’d be the one I’d vote for.

EDIT: Surprise, surprise, surprise. Nobody else had voted after all.

[Garin]

Valier:Why the sudden attack on me? Couldn't find anything else to accuse me for other than my "Hello Kitty" Avatar!

I think you are playing safe and making non-commital votes, I just wanted to see your reaction, really. Someone who is in the limelight sometimes wants to spread the 15 minutes of fame around. As for the Avatar comment, I truly am feverishly ill today and have stayed home and had two black cats raising hell and not letting me rest. So it was an impulsive thing.
Fear not, it is pretty obvious I won't be voting for you today.

[Garin]

Besides Valier, my Avatar is a bust of Caligula, so who am I to judge?

[Amanaduial the archer]

Originally Posted by Rune

Garin...claims that he is taking a chance by beeing vokal, but is it not true that people often suspect those who is more silent and the wolfes would benefit more from killing a silent person who does not suspect anyone and therefor does not leave a trail.

Homm. Right, sorry, I'm going to be awkward: surely the wolves would benefit more from the death of a more vocal person, i.e. someone who was less likely to pose a threat to them by voicing his/her opinions loudly? By this logic, Garin is in fact probably putting himself under more of a threat from the werewolves. I also don't understand your other comment:

I will not be voting for Menel as it will be to no use and to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Bandwagon-age!

Sure, Garin's constant attempts to throw guilt away from himself (right down to the black cat comments) are a little odd, and maybe could be constrused as suspicious - but if you were looking for someone who seems fixed on proving their own innocence, I would say that you needn't look further than the girl who spent an entire post defending herself - yeah, I'm lookin' at you, Cailin. As for her...ah, I just don't know. I don't suspect her strongly enough to vote for her, certainly, so I shall stick with Lhun - but it can all change in the next...crikey, half an hour?!

I don't know, I'm not sure I can really work Garin out either, but I think he's innocent, for the same reasons as Nilpaurion: to be that vocal would be rather foolhardy for a wolf, so I doubt he actually is.

Although I admit the Hello Kitty comments have completely baffled me. And as to whether the bust of one of the most mysterious Roman Emporers has any significance...
...yeah, grasping at straws.

[Naria]

hehehe....at least we're all trying to find out who the ww are and not doing too much bickering(says with sarcasm).

Cailin stands out the most for me. She has consistentley posted after someone has said somthing about her with great defense. And, at least it seems to me, she is always trying to get the spotlight off of her and onto somebody else and noone in particular I might add. Quite the wolvish behaviour if ya ask me.

I can't really explain my vote any better than that so:

++Cailin

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I was going to post this sooner, but time got away from me.

I have revised my opinions, and have decided to vote for

++Garin

and this is not something that came from the bandwaggon. This is because if he really is as crafty and sneaky as he's coming off, I see him as an immediate threat, and my rather dim suspicions of Valier can wait. Some of his posts have gotten very strange, and I just have decided to go with my gut instinct.

ETA crossposted with many people, and I'm too lazy to go back and count...

[Garin]

Totals
Cailín-3
Eluchil-1
Lhunardawen-3
Garin-3
C'mon townpeople, our dear moderator needs time to create a narration.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Azaelia

However, to take a Nilp-ish turn, I don't want to be considered innocent just because I "always" am. That's not reason enough. I am, of course, innocent, as I have been in the past...but I don't want that to be the only reasoning behind the idea, because you could, for all you know, be letting a wolf slip through your fingers. (Of course, I'm not one, so that point is moot, anyway).

I would not have said that if I found anything in your posts that would lead me to believe otherwise.

Cailin stands out the most for me. She has consistentley posted after someone has said somthing about her with great defense. And, at least it seems to me, she is always trying to get the spotlight off of her and onto somebody else and noone in particular I might add. Quite the wolvish behaviour if ya ask me.

I assure you, I absolutely love being in the spotlight and have no intentions to get it away from me at all.

Can I explain my defensiveness with anything else than just admitting I like Day 3 a lot better than Day 1&2 combined and intend to live?

So, three votes for me and three for Lhun, and I personally wouldn’t like to see either one of us dying. I shall therefore be noble – as I am, to my own dismay - and vote for someone I am actually suspicious of, instead of merely saving my own hide. If this is farewell, then so be it.

++ELUCHIL

Edit: of course, I dramatically cross-posted with both Azaelia and Garin.

[Kuruharan]

Why do I have this feeling that there is a mob of us perched in invisible mode just waiting for something to happen and that we are going to end up with a deluge of votes at the end where practically anything could happen…?

I bet there is a wolf or two that hasn’t voted yet.

At this moment that list includes

Melentarmacil
Cailín
Azaelia
Garin
Valier
Gurthang
Me
Eluchil

I know we have a little time left, but this dead silence is a little scary.

pssst…Amanaduiel…I don’t think we can change our votes.

Votes cannot be taken back.
Modendacil post 2

EDIT: See, I knew it, there was a flood of voting while I was typing this post!!

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I just wanted my vote in for the deadline, so if my last post was rushed-sounding, that is why. I hope I have explained myself satisfactorialy. I know I am often wrong, and I feel like I just took a huge risk.If the Garin-waggon wasn't rolling before, it is now, and that certainly wasn't my intention. If Garin is innocent, then it may just be me that people start bandwaggoning for.

That said, I hope I've helped to catch a wolf today.

ETA: I hope you feel better, Garin.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Garin

I think you are playing safe and making non-commital votes

Well I have to say I'm sorry your sick(no sarcasm), But I still find your attempt at redirecting your "lime light" away from you,on to me (innocent) to be a little sly.

Cailin-Has been quite defencive with her posts,but so have I so it makes me trust her for another day,because if your innocent it makes you want to defend yourself.

So my commited vote is for..

++Garin

I think 4 people wrote after this sorry

[Garin]

Totals
Cailín-3
Eluchil-2
Lhunardawen-3
Garin-4
C'mon townpeople, our dear moderator needs time to create a narration.
It's obvious why I am waiting, not being nearly as noble as Cailin.

[Gurthang]

Whoa! Was reading and didn't realize how close it was getting! I'll have to make a descision fast.

Probably:
Garin
Eluchil
Cailin

Don't really want to vote Cailin, and Eluchil has been so silent toDay, I really have nothing more on him. I'll most likely pick Garin, but I'll wait a few minutes.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I will not be voting for Menel as it will be to no use and to give him the benefit of the doubt.

This means that I have raised suspition of Menel, but will not follow-up on it as everybody els thinks he is innocent. The benefit of the doubt is refering to the fact that my arguments was build on shaky ground. I then votet Garin whom I suspectet as much as Menel.

A loudmouth is only a threath to the wolfs if s/he can convince the other villagers of his own brilliance, when they kill the loudmouth there is more things to analyze and more trails are left. Where as a more silent player will allmost leave no trails. (this way it will allso be easier to frame an innocent)

If you dont understand my logic then dont worry, most people dont.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

pssst…Amanaduiel…I don’t think we can change our votes.

Oh, I do apologise, silly of me...thank you for pointing that out.

Originally Posted by Valier

But I still find your attempt at redirecting your "lime light" away from you,on to me (innocent) to be a little sly.

While I do not agree with what could be construed as sympathy tactics from Garin, am I to understand that this vote is purely vengeance for a bad comment?! Truly, dear lady, at risk of being the victim of your wrath next, truly Cailin far excels you in the stakes of nobility!

EDIT: crosspost with Rune.

[Gurthang]

A little late, but, unless I misread the rules, anyone who did not vote yesterday and does not toDay will be killed. The only one I can think of offhand is Eluchil.

[Kuruharan]

(Time to revive the old have two windows of this open at the same time trick).

I think I’m going to have to be brave and consistent and vote…

++ GARIN

Probably wrong, I expect, and I’ll probably look quite silly…but I can’t think of anything else to do.

(The ends of these DAYs can be bad for your heart… )

[Garin]

++Lhunawarden

[Gurthang]

++Garin

Eluchil might be my top suspect tomorrow, depending on the wolves kill. But I may not even have to worry about it if he doesn't vote.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

A little late, but, unless I misread the rules, anyone who did not vote yesterday and does not toDay will be killed. The only one I can think of offhand is Eluchil.

...and this overrides Garin's 6 vote impending doom? Well, he has less than five minutes...

[Formendacil]

The second day after Formendacil’s death was taken a good deal more cautiously by the villagers of Dol-in-Gaurhoth. The villagers had seen proof of the Werewolves’ resolution to continue killing them, and although their latest victim had been the one person in the village who could have given them assistance, the fact that not one of the Werewolves was known- or even clearly guessed at- gave them reason to think long and hard on what they knew.

“We should send away for help,” suggest Azaelia. “Surely we can survive long enough to find some professional assistance. And it wouldn’t be like just giving up the enemy.”

“Professional werewolf hunters?” said Garin, “do such things even exist? And if they do, I doubt if there would be any nearer than either Gondor or the Iron Hills. A trip to either and back would take to long.”

“I’m as close as a professional as you can get,” said Nilpaurion. “I am, after all, a carnivore myself.”

The village ignored Nilpaurion. After his performance of the day before, they were content to leave him be for the moment.

“Anyways, who would we send?” said Rune. “In my opinion, we should all abandon the village, and seek out a professional werewolf diviner together.”

“I’ve seriously doubt that such things exist,” re-emphasized Garin.

“And are you seriously saying that we should set off as a group across the wilds?” said Amanaduial. “We’d be in exactly the same boat, except that we’d have no walls for our defense. The werewolves would have us dead before we reached the great road north of the Ered Lithui. And if, by some reason, they let us live until we reached Gondor, we’d just be setting them up for more murders.”

“You’re right,” said Cailín. “So we do the honourable thing, and try to find them for ourselves. I guess it’s the only thing to do.”

“But what if we guess wrong, and the Werewolves escape and go on to kill other villages!” said Alcarillo. “I’m as fond of my life as the next man, but if being honourable is what we’re after, then maybe we should commit mass suicide. True, that’s a pile of innocents going down as well, but at least we’ll know for sure that the Werewolves are dead.”

“That’s over four villagers for every Werewolf,” said Meneltarmacil, doing the math. “Maybe that’ll be acceptable if another few days go by and we’ve had no luck, but for now I don’t think we can justify those odds.”

“Dying isn’t a part of my plan, whatever happens,” said Kuruharan. A few of the villagers shouted their agreement, but Lhunardawen said:

“That sounds suspiciously like what a Werewolf would say to ruin a sound plan.”

“Sound plan!” said Malkatoj.

And so the day continued….

It was one of those days when things seemed unnaturally balanced. When the votes were being tallied at the end of the day, as impartially as the villagers could arrange, it was a close race between Lhunardawen, Garin, Cailín, and Eluchíl- a race where coming in first would mean being the ultimate loser. Gurthang and Meneltarmacil, assured for the moment that they would not die, were already preparing the gallows.

The last few votes were counted, giving Garin a very unwanted landslide victory. The village began to close in around him.

“I’m inclined to agree with Kuruharan,” he said. “Dying isn’t a part of my plan!”

And he grabbed a long knife from his belt, and launched himself at the nearest bystander, grabbing him at the throat.

“Help me!” shrieked Eluchíl.

“No one’s going to save you, runt!” snarled Garin. “They don’t know whether you’re a wolf or no, and from their voting today, I gather that several think you’re a Wolf!

“Now!” he turned to the village. “This little whelp and I will be on our way. If you don’t want to see him hurt, you’ll be wise and make a path for us.”

The villagers looked at each other for guidance, forgetting momentarily the two other Werewolves in their midst. All clutched weapons, from Amanaduial’s longbow, to Gurthang’s riding crop, to Lhunardawen clutching Formendacil’s sword. Slowly, they backed up, letting Garin and Eluchíl through. Slowly, the convicted man and his captive headed towards the edge of the village, the villagers following behind.

Then Eluchíl decided to escape. Why, no one could ever say. Perhaps he panicked. Whatever the reason, he tried to dive under Garin’s arm, and make a dash for the others.

Garin gutted him where he stood.

For a moment there was silence as Eluchíl slipped to the ground, and gave a gasp before dying.

“Told you I was innocent…”

Then everybody came to their senses. Garin took one look at the villagers and made a beeline for the village gates. The others were hard on his heels.

“Get out of my way so I can shoot him!” said Amanaduial, but they were running too fast to stop.

At the head of the pack was Kuruharan. As he explained later, Dwarves are natural sprinters, very dangerous over short distances.

And so it proved for Garin. Just before he made it to the palisade walls of the village, the Dwarf had caught up to him. Massive axe in hand, he swiped at the fugitive, causing him to stumble, though he didn’t manage to maim him.

The rest of the village caught up, and made a ring around Garin, cutting off his escape.

“Traitors!” snapped Garin. “Come and help me, why don’t you!”

Who he was snapping at was never learned, for Kuruharan’s mighty axe clove deep into his stomach, severing him nearly in two. Dying even as he fell to the ground, Garin began to transform, his body shaking as his human features transformed into those of a hideous, cloven beast- the form of a WEREWOLF. The village all stepped back.

“No Werewolf twists my words for their own means and gets away with it,” said Kuruharan, wiping his blade.

“It’s not the one who killed Formendacil,” said Valier. “This one still has its tail.”

In the sky, the sun was setting.

“Let’s get to bed,” said Farael. “I’m sure we’ll pay for this tomorrow…”

NIGHT 3 has now begin.

I need names from the Seer, the Ranger, and Wolves. Dead people, be ready for a PM from me, from the Seer.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[Eluchíl]

Insinuations, accusations...projecting fears onto me? Friends...listen to ourselves. We must not let the forboding nature of the issue take over our sanity. Amanaduial, you speak reason. You see they only want blood, too, don't you?

Perhaps an olive branch. I'm officially inviting everyone to my inn for some after hours talk and discussion so we can get down to this issue in a civil and diginified manner. I hope to see everyone there.

[Formendacil]

Morning dawned over the village of Dol-in-Gaurhoth. One by one, the villagers regathered in the village square, expecting to find their numbers culled again. But, when they took a headcount, everyone was present….

Several hours before, in the dark of night, the two Werewolves had crept up on one of the village houses, intent on avenging their comrade’s death, and planning to cull yet another from the herd of witless sheep that was the village. But as they approached the door of the house, something startled them.

But before they could react to the sound, a tall figure leapt out of the shadows brandishing a long blade that shone in the moonlight. Moving fast and deadly, the warrior advanced on the wolves.

Still timid after the death of Garin, the Werewolves turned and ran. The Ranger did not follow. The duty of the night was done. Go any further and the Wolves might turn and fight…


As the villagers realized that the Wolves had not killed any of their number, they started to rejoice, but soon Farael’s sharp eye caught sight of a piece of parchment with a familiar scrawl on it, driven on a nail to the lynching tree.

Men of the West it read.

So you have survived another night. Consider it a fair trade for the unexpected bonus of Eluchíl’s death. Your Ranger cannot protect you for long.

The Werewolves in Your Midst.

“Bluster!” said Gurthang, “it’s all bluster.”

“Yes,” said Malkatoj, “surely they can see that they’re losing.”

“If I may point out the obvious,” said Rune, “we still have no idea who the other Werewolves are.”

“I have an idea,” said Amanaduial darkly.

“And just what are you insinuating?” demanded Rune.

And so began, yet again, another day of accusations, deceptions, and, eventually, an execution…

DAY 3 has begun, you may now begin posting.

Those alive:

Meneltarmacil - Creepy Guy on the Edge of Town
Cailin - Noble Kleptomaniac
Azaelia - Town Drunk
Farael - Worm Hunter
TGWBS - Hat Maker
Rune – Misplaced Hobbit Peace Activist
Valier - Brewmaster
Alcarillo - Moneylender
Lhunardawen - Potion-Pizza Person
Gurthang - Rancher
Amanaduial - Northman Travel Guide
Naria - Store Proprietor
Nilpaurion Felagund - Suspicious Carnivore
Kuruharan - Dwarven Alcohol and Weapons Merchant
Malkatoj – Philosophy Professor

Those dead:

Formendacil - Moderator - Killed by Werewolves, Night 1
Gil-Galad - Shrubber - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 1
Kath - Gongfarmer - Cobbler - Killed by Werewolves, Night 2
Garin - Horse Loaner - Werewolf - Killed by Vilager, Day 2
Eluchil - Mild-Mannered Innkeeper - Ordo - Killed "Accidentally" by Werewolf, Day 2
NIGHT 3 - NO DEATH

[Cailín]

Things are looking up! Well done, oh mighty and fabulous ranger and well done fellow villagers on catching wolf- Garin! Not only does our Seer now have a dead wolf to prod for info; we can also get a clearer view on the situation. Plus, our Gifteds are getting stronger and more knowledgeable by the day.

I realise I look none the better than I did yesterday. Frankly, I could care less. I wish to find the wolves before I die, so I’m not going to waste more energy to defend myself and totally screw up in other departments. So I shall just try to gather my thoughts on some of you.

As for Eluchíl… you’re dead. I’m dreadfully sorry, but you are. So stop babbling ;-)

--The case against:

Nilpaurion Felagund

While he was still looking pretty good yesterday, I definitely think Garin’s furriness has put Nilpaurion in a rather bad light. On Day 1 he voted traditionally for himself, which is not too weird. The only thing it proves is that Nilp was undoubtedly not a gifted – the only time I can recall he was anything other than an innocent villager or wolf, he abruptly changed his tactics. So there’s basically two options. Nilp is a wolf or Nilp is clueless.

Now let’s go back to the end of Day 1 when a rather interesting situation arises. Right after my vote, the scores are as follows:

Menel - 1 (Amanduial)
Garin - 2 (Alcarillo, Kuru)
Nilp - 5 (Nilp, Lhuna, Gil, malkatoj, Naria)
Eluchil - 2 (Farael, Valier)
Gil-Galad - 4 (Rune, TGWBS, Menel, Cailín)

As we can see, it’s obviously between Nilpaurion and Gil-Galad, Gil’s bandwagon starting with a collective brainwave from Rune and TGWBS. However, Garin, our recently proven furry friend, has been holding out on his vote. In his own legendary words:

Yes, I am a bit chatty and naturally defensive. I waited to vote to see if I needed to prevent my own lynching. It'll be nice to have the night off.

But he never even came close to being lynched! When Garin got his second vote, Nilp had already gathered five and Gil Galad no less than three. And only Gurthang said directly that his vote might be going to Garin. So was Garin really trying to save his own fangs, or was he watching out – loyally – for his criminally insane fellow wolf?

Next day, Nilpaurion decides to get serious. He might have been convinced by nightly pleas from his fellow wolves. He suspects TGWBS, me and Malkatoj, but none of them too much. His vote for me makes me uncomfortable at that point, but that would be just me.

Lhunardawen

Now Lhuna has already been under a fire and where does the strongest ‘Let’s kill the lhunatic’ voice come from other than our dearly departed wolf? However – even though Garin has voted for Lhuna right before his death, he was already convicted by then and it might have just been a clumsy attempt to make his fellow wolf look innocent in our naive eyes.

Her early votes for Nilpaurion and Eluchil are none-telling (alas, the poor gal is suffering from that dreadful sickness) and could be clever ways to hide a lupine secret. However, for now, I have an ‘innocent’ standing behind Lhuna’s name.

Do I believe Nilpaurion and Lhuna could both be guilty? Well, then they’d be playing an extremely risky game. However, nothing is impossible, especially where those two are involved.

The Guy Who Be Short

Why, his silence is simply unnerving.

--For now I believe the following people innocent till proven otherwise (which is about as good as you can get in this game):

Alcarillo

He was first to vote for Garin on Day 1 – with no reason at all. Were he wolf, he could have randomly voted for someone else without attracting much suspicion. I’d find it hard to believe that Wolf-Alcarillo would vote for his fellow wolf when considering that Garin was already prodded here and there and such a random vote easily turns into a bandwagon on Day 1.

Valier

Well, this seems pretty darn obvious. Garin sneakily cast suspicion on poor Valier, and Valier continued to vote for Garin at a most crucial time. This would be a pretty bold bluff to pull off, and I doubt anyone would dare.

Less certain, but equally unconcerned, am I of Azaelia, Gurthang and Rune.

--

Then there is Kuruharan. He pursued Garin from Day 1, which speaks largely in his favour. Then we can be fairly certain he is indeed innocent, were he not such a shrewd merchant who I could easily see sacrificing all his fellows for a personal victory.

Amanaduial, Meneltarmacil, Naria and Malkatoj are other people I shall be looking at closely today. Though I’m not so suspicious of Farael, I’d like to here more from him anyway, but I am too tired to do any further analysis for now.

[Gurthang]

Excellant job, Ranger. I'm glad that we didn't lose two innocents this last night. (Meaning Eluchil and the wolf's choice.) I can't help but wonder if it was me... .

Originally Posted by Me (#155)

Although, if Garin is a wolf, I'd look into Nilp actually being one also, which would make sense because of Garin saved Nilp with that last minute vote.

Does anyone else think this would be a good choice? Garin's vote now really seems like a 'save Nilp' push. I've always worried that Nilpaurion would be able to use his consistant 'lynch me' as a cover for when he really was a werewolf. I think this might be that time. He'll be high on my list when voting comes, but the Day is young.

I'll be looking at Lhunadawen. Her early vote for Nilp that first day was very suspicious, and now I'm wondering if it wasn't her voting for a fellow wolf (Nilp) who would get lynched and then make her look innocent. I'm more for lynching our suicidal comrade, but if he is of Garin's variety, then Lhuna might be next on my list. Also, I notice that Garin voted for Lhuna in his dying breath. It may just have been him attempting to save himself, but it almost looks like he's voting for another wolf to make her look less like one. OR it could just be me being paranoid about someone I think might be a wolf...

I'll be back later to look through the voting to see if that will tell me anything.

[Gurthang]

Cailín, interesting that you and I are both looking towards Lhuna and Nilp. I was beginning to look at you a little simple because everyone else thought you were suspicious. Your comment about caring more for the village than your own life is definitely something an innocent would say, so I'm very much inclined to believe you.

[Meneltarmacil]

Sorry about my not voting. I had to do some work and completely forgot about the deadline, heh heh.

Let me state for the record, though, that I would probably have voted for Lhuna.

[Amanaduial the archer]

We've got off to an auspicious start and a triumph over the werewolves - lets make the most of it.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Now let’s go back to the end of Day 1 when a rather interesting situation arises. Right after my vote, the scores are as follows:

Menel - 1 (Amanduial)

Ah. Hmm, actually, didn't comment on this first time around because I think I somewhat misunderstood, but I didn't actually vote for Meneltarmacil, I didn't actually, I think, even suspect him - I voted for Kuruharan. I don't suppose it really matters now - it was a Day 1 vote, I have no suspicion against either of them now really - but, hey, just for the record

First the death of Garin, then an unsuccesful night of hunting after they were thwarted by the Hunter...well, well, looks like fate may not be entirely against us, 'cos it certainly ain't with the wolves. Hopefully we can take advantage of that today, and I must admit, after Nilp's post on the death of Eluchil and Garin, I am rather intrigued about who the 'wolf without a tail' - I can see the mystery around that one in particular building, although it would be a shame to have such a fine wolfpelt marred by missing a part...

A major question I'm tingling to ask is whether Kath knew of the identities of the werewolves - I mean, I'd presume she did, or her job as a Cobbler would be somewhat hard to carry out (what with the potential this would have to destroy those she was trying to help and all...). This could be important: see, Kath, in post 116, defended Lhuna when she was attacked. Now, I realise that I may be seen as having a go at 'poor ol' Lhoony', but, y'know, if Kath did know of the identities of the wolves, this could throw her innocence into some serious doubt. I mean, she is yet to post today, so we'll see what a new day brings, but its rather telling when the first confirmed bad guy so staunchly comes to your aid...

Cailin, I must agree with you on the point made about Valier - looking back, she actually has from the beginning made her suspicions about Garin clear, like Alcarillo and despite the chit chat she made with Garin. So unless making friendly small talk throws someone's innocence into question, I'm actually fairly sure about these two as well.

My agreement with you over this does lead me to wonder about your list of 'people to watch' however - partly, of course, because I come onto it. Why choose those who you have?

Problem comes, really, with a lack of posts from some people. Guy, Lhuna, Malkatoj...I don't know what to really think of any of them. I mean, I suspect Lhuna for other reasons, but the other two...hmm. I just don't know. For now, because they haven't made me consider anything to the contrary by their behaviour or any apparent alliegance to the dead 'baddies', I will let them rest actually and be satsfied - a little, anyway! - with their innocence. The suspicion which seemed to surround Meneltarmacil makes me question his innocence - but, like the others, I can't really gather enough from his posts to make him my main suspect.

Another suspect - yeah, you know what's coming - is Nilp. Yes, along with Lhuna, a bad day for that family from this corner, but hey, like they say, evil: keep it in the family. (They don't say that? Ah, sure they do...) I mean, partly, I feel inclined to vote for Nilp purely to serve him right for all that suicidicality earlier, but whether it is a hugely elaborate double bluff....Oh, I don't know! But he will be one of the main ones who I will be watching (for what that's worth with this tricky carnivore) today, although I shall not vote yet...

[malkatoj]

Well, clearly we have a good Ranger here. We've done well this night, aside from the loss of Eluchil--villagers, please post and vote, we really can't afford to lose people.

People I find at all suspicious:

TGWBS: I'm very suspicious of his almost complete lack of posting. Has anyone else noticed that he comes in every day with nothing to say except a bandwagon vote, no reasoning behind it? It's unnerving, and as of right now, he will probably get my vote.
Alcarillo: I don't like yesterday's vote, but he doesn't seem especially suspicious because of it, just kind of random and needing to get a vote in--I know that feeling, so I can't rightfully call him suspicious for it.
Lhunardawen: I still don't like her vote from yesterday--too little reasoning, and could easily be a wolf unable to see suspicion when she knows who people really are. She's near the top of my suspicions, for now.
Gurthang: Still slightly suspicious because of his tying Nilp and Gil-Galad on DAY one, but he had reasons behind it. Possible wolf, but not anything definite.
Nilpaurion Felagund: saved by Garin, of course, though that could have simply been Garin joining the predominant bandwagon at the time. He's suspicious, but I wouldn't go so far as to cry wolf.


I'm also willing to bet that at least one wolf voted for Garin as a cover. This list includes:

Farael
Rune
Azaelia
Valier
Kuruharan
Gurthang

The only overlap between the two lists is Gurthang, which makes him a teensy bit more suspicious, but as he's one of the least of my worries the first list, so I probably won't be voting for him as of yet, but it's always possible that I change my mind.

[Kuruharan]

Then there is Kuruharan. He pursued Garin from Day 1, which speaks largely in his favour. Then we can be fairly certain he is indeed innocent, were he not such a shrewd merchant who I could easily see sacrificing all his fellows for a personal victory.

Stop and think about that for a minute. How would you react if you were one of my cohorts in crime and I were acting like this? “Not well” would be my guess, and I’m pretty sure most anybody else would react the same way.

I’m exactly what I appear to be, just an innocent ordo trying to get by. I trust we need not waste further time on me.

Now, to a quick record of Garin’s (relevant) posting.

DAY ONE

Post 51 – Tells Nilp to stop looking at him with such suspicion-odd remark for a wolf to make considering Nilp had not posted yet.

Post 88 – Began sparring with Gurthang over the Seer plan

Post 91 – tells Nilp to stop being suicidal-and makes a curious bluffing reference

Post 93 – says Nilp is too crazy to be guilty

Post 104 – continues to spar with Gurthang

Post 109 – In agreement with Cailín, tells people not to vote for Nilp

Post 118 – started arguing with Farael, questions the motives of anybody who votes for Nilp

Post 140 – votes for Gil-Galad

DAY TWO

Post 147 - believes Nilp to be not-guilty by reason of insanity, continues bickering with Gurthang

Post 166 – Defends his saving of Nilp (which is not particularly suspicious under the circumstances), continues to spar with Gurthang

Post 174 – begins attacking Valier

Post 179 – “Would like to think Gurthang innocent” but continues to argue anyway

Post 190 – Will probably vote for Valier or Lhuna; just for a little variety, pokes at Farael rather than Gurthang

Post 193 – Still squabbling with Gurthang (is anybody else detecting a pattern here?)

Post 207 – Says he will not vote for Valier

Post 223 – Votes Lhunardawen

Gurthang

I’m finding this continual bickering with Gurthang to be curiously troubling. On the face of it, this should speak in Gurthang’s favor. However, the relentlessness of it seems rather imprudent behavior for a wolf toward a villager. Especially considering he never really got close to voting for Gurthang. I may just be turning into a suspicious old dwarf who is constantly looking for subtlety where none exists, but I don’t want us to forget about Gurthang.

Nilpaurion

Odd fellow. As I said above, he beggars rational reaction. He and Garin had quite the interesting relationship, no doubt. Garin defended Nilpaurion almost continually. That in and of itself is enough to bring on suspicion, particularly after Garin initially began by questioning Nilp.

Unfortunately, I have to admit I’m not entirely satisfied in the conclusion that Nilp is a wolf based on this evidence. For some reason this nagging doubt remains. However, it might be worthwhile to kill Nilp just to find out.

Amanaduial

I thought our cobbler was already dead. Yet, oddly enough, she seems to go about sowing confusion of one sort or another wherever she goes. This is not necessarily wolfish behavior, but we should keep our eye on her.

By the way…

Cobbler- The Cobbler appears as an Innocent Villager to the Seer, and has all the same powers or lack thereof, of any of the Villagers. His goal is to assist the Werewolf team.
-Modendacil post 2

The cobbler doesn’t know who the wolves are.

Lhunardawen

I find this obsession that some people seem to have with lynching Lhuna to be a bit bizarre. The evidence has never seemed that convincing to me and the theory presented toDAY just seems…strange. I’m not at all saying that we should forget her. I am saying that we probably can stick her on the back burner for a bit until something a little more useful comes up.

At the moment I think that Alcarillo, Farael, and Valier are probably in the clear.

Alcarillo because he was the first to very hastily vote for Garin and a hasty vote for a fellow wolf would be both unnecessary at that point and weird.

Farael because he also entertained early suspicions of Garin.

Valier because she became something of Garin’s other punching bag (besides Gurthang) yesterDAY.

I’m not intending to waste any time suspecting them toDAY unless something really strange happens.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I agree with others, for reasons already stated, that Nilp is probably someone we should be looking at. His interactions with Garin are interesting enough to beg further discussion.

It seems to me that they knew each other in more than just passing, from the way they were interacting, and I think it's more than fairly possible that Garin was waiting to see if Nilp needed saving...His comment at the time about waiting to see if he was going to be lynched was strange since he seemed to be in no immediate danger. In the context of the vote depending on Nilp needing saving, I think it makes sense.

Now that we know Garin was a wolf, I am more willing to let my suspicion of Valier go...they wouldn't have had that dispute if both were wolves, it looks to me like too much of a gamble.

TGWBS also makes me nervous, though not so nervous as Nilp...His lack of input seems rather uncharacteristic, which worries me. However, it could be that there are circumstances in RL that we don't know about, so I'll let him slide by for just a little while longer before I start really wondering about him. Innocent until proven guilty, and silence alone is not enough to condemn someone.

I'd also like to know who needed the protection last night. It's an interesting turn of events.

[Eluchíl]

Hey...just because I'm dead doesn't I can't invite you. I mean, I still have manners. Besides, I died very uncharacteristically, give me a break.

[malkatoj]

Actually, Eluchil, it DOES mean you aren't supposed to talk on this thread anymore.

[Lhunardawen]

Ironic, ain't it? A proven wolf votes for you spitefully and the next day you find your head in line for the gallows...

But I don't blame you all. I know I've been a worthless villager for the past Days; this malady of mine has been hindering me so badly that I can barely make out anything before I have to leave to attend to my duties. But toDay I can say that I probably know more than I did the previous Days.

Wonderful job by the way, Ranger. Thanks a lot for that.

So, I've already explained my vote for Nilp on Day1. If you find that weak, I can do nothing about that. All I can say is, my brother can be more tricksy than you think. For all we know he's been building the perfect cover and this is the time he can finally get to use it. But right now I sincerely believe he's innocent.

As for my Eluchil vote yesterday...it's not my fault if there's really nothing I can glean from the posts to make a sensible enough vote. Call me a monster if you will, but at least he's one less villager to worry about.

Yesterday's votes were probably a bit more revealing than we think they are. Studying them, I find one vote which for me stood out the most: Naria's. Her vote for Cailin placed her and me in a double-tie and it could have been an attempt to save Garin.

I can also say with some certainty that Cailin is innocent, for she could have voted for me to save her skin, but she didn't.

I don't have the time, but please look carefully at Naria. Hopefully we'll bag one more werewolf ere the Day ends.

See you all later, I hope.

[Meneltarmacil]

Interesting, this Nilp-is-a-werewolf idea, heh heh heh. I'm thinking that's a good idea, and the logic in it pretty clear. I'm probably going to vote for him toDay.

As for Lhuna, I'm not sure what to make of her. Her vote for him, as someone has said, does fit her usual voting pattern. The possibility does exist that she is a Wolf, though. I'm very uncertain about her right now.

My suggestion is this: Lynch Nilpaurion Felagund toDay, while having the Seer ask Garin whether Lhuna's a wolf during the Night.