TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the phantom]

After a time of silence, Mortakh spoke again. "Master Sauron, earlier you said the village only had one Eomer."

"Yes, I did. What of it?" replied Sauron without looking at the orc.

"Well, m'lord, last night not long before dawn Ufdreg and his patrol went down by that clearing where that Hunter fought our wolves. He said he heard the fighting and went to check it out, and when he reached the clearing the Hunter and wolf had just been killed and the other two wolves were standing there. And that's when he says some sort of warrior type came charging into the clearing and chased the wolves off."

"A warrior?" questioned Sauron, who was now looking Mortakh in the eye.

"Yes, m'lord. Ufdreg said that the man was wearing a black cloak and carrying an elvish sword. After he chased the wolves off, Ufdreg says he did some chanting over the Hunter's body and then left. And when Ufdreg ran up to try and pinch the Hunter's weapons and armor, he said it hurt him to get close and that he just couldn't get to the Hunter, like there was some sort of invisible force-field keeping him from disturbing or dishonoring the dead Hunter's body."

"A Ranger!" exclaimed Sauron, rising from his throne. "So- Erbar Telamarth has a Ranger, does it? Well- not for long! Now that I know he's there, I will find him!"

Mortakh backed down towards the bottom of the hill to allow Sauron to work without distraction.

[the phantom]

It was one hour before dawn. The two wolves crouched behind a house, awaiting directions from Sauron. They had been there for two hours. Just before the two were about to enter the house and make their kill, Sauron's dark thought reached them and instructed them to wait, and so they waited.

At that moment, a cold wind rushed in from the northwest and swirled around the two wolves. The icy breath of air held words from Sauron, and the wolves understood every word.

Quickly and silently, the wolves sprinted away to the north of the village, turned to the west, and then turned again and approached Erbar Telamarth from the northwest. On the western end of the village there was a small hut that stood apart from the other houses. It was overlooked from the north by a small knoll. As they neared the knoll, they slowed their pace and stealthily crawled, foot by foot, towards the top.

As the wolves breasted the hill and looked down upon the hut, they saw exactly what Sauron said they would see- a man in a black cloak sitting with his back to them. It was the Ranger. He was guarding the occupant of the hut.

The wolves smiled at each other. They thought- He expects an attack upon the person inside the hut, and is prepared to stop such an attack, but he is not prepared for us to mount a surprise assault on him.

The wolves charged down the knoll and jumped at the Ranger with their jaws open and hands outstretched. The Ranger barely had time to gain his feet before he was struck by the pair. They landed directly on top of him, slamming his body into the ground. One wolf wrenched the Ranger's sword from his hand- so violently that it pulled the Ranger's arm out of its socket. At the same time, the other Werewolf slashed the Ranger's face with his scythe-like claws.

With his good arm, the Ranger pulled out a knife and drove it into the shoulder of the wolf that was slashing him, but the other wolf closed his jaws on the Ranger's wrist to stop him from striking again. While the Ranger's wrist was being held, the other wolf dug his claws into the Ranger's neck and squeezed with all of his animal strength.

After a short time, the Ranger stopped struggling. He was dead.

The wolves howled out their victory, waking all the villagers from their sleep.

On his throne upon Bald Hill, Sauron laughed with delight.

[the phantom]

One by one, the villagers filed into the inn's bar, their facial expressions nearly dripping fear and apprehension. Everyone had heard the storm of howls just before the dawn, and knew that the wolves had won a victory during the night.

"Wait a minute- there's no one missing," observed Lhuna as she looked around the room.

"Yes there is," said Fea.

"Who?"

"Haven't you noticed that there is no one at the bar?" asked Fea.

"Sure there is! Formendacil, Underhill, and-"

"I mean behind the bar, Lhuna!"

The room fell silent.

Finally, Esty asked, "Why would the wolves make such a ruckus about killing a lecherous innkeeper?"

"Well," said mormegil, "Does anyone actually know he was guilty of lechery? It always seemed to me that he was more bark than bite. Perhaps it was an act to hide something else."

"I suppose there could be some truth to that," said Fea. "For all the time I worked for him, he was quite a beast, verbally anyway, but now that I think of it I can't recall him actually behaving in such a way. Though he talked about it all the time, I don't recall that he ever brought a woman to his quarters for the night. Maybe he was hiding something."

"Well then," piped up the guy who be short, "Let's have a look in his room."

In littlemanpoet's room, the villagers found several chests full of weapons. One of the chests had runes written on the top.

"These runes give his true name," said Mister Underhill. "They also declare him to be a Ranger from the forest of Brethil."

Living-

• mormegil (messenger)
• the guy who be short (dwarf)
• Encaitare (jewel smith)
• Boromir88 (insulting man from Dor-Lomin)
• Firefoot (naturalist/herbalist)
• Lhunardawen (healer)
• Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
• Formendacil (gong farmer)
• Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
• Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)

Dead-

• the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
• Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
• Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling wolves on Night 2)
• Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
• Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
• littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by wolves on Night 3)

The following players have informed me that their participation will be somewhat under their usual today- Lhunardawen.

[mormegil]

Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

This is yesterday's voting.

I feared that LMP, Firefoot or I would die this night at the paws of the wolves. I am sadden that LMP is gone and we lost such a valueable asset to the village, he was a good man whatever his facade contradicted. Now LMP had few enemies, though they ones he had are easily identifiable--Formendacil and Fea.

Now there are two reasons why the wolves would want to kill LMP as I see it.

1) They believed him to be the seer which would mean his suspions were accurate. He voted Cailin on DAY 1 which in my eyes made him innocent, did he vote for a wolf on DAY 2? It's a strong possibility and one that I feel should be investigated more thouroughly.

2) They knew that many people believed him innocent and found his death a way to spread confusion and discord.

As the wolves main foe is the seer I find it likely that they are trying to kill him/her and thought that LMP was the seer. This would strongly implicate Fea and somewhat exonerate Mister Underhill.

Out of the people who voted for Shelob I find it telling that 2 days now Encai has made fairly critical votes for innocents. Also Esty and TGWBS are under suspicion and seem to follow each other on voting. Now Firefoot is in there and I'm still fairly convinced of her innocence. My list of suspicion is as follows:

1. Feanor
2. Formendacil and Encai
4. TGWBS
5. Esty and Boromir
7. Lhuna and Mister Underhill
9. Firefoot
10. Mormegil

Now we are not at a critical stage yet but we are on the fast track to getting there. We need the Seer to shine for us and come through with at least one wolf before he/she dies and the rate of gifted deaths has me a bit worried but that's my disposition anyway. The seer knows what is best and when s/he should come out. But with one more wolf identified it's much easier to track the third I would think. I thnk we need to spread out the votes again but lynch Fea in the end.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Alas! Two more innocent villagers are gone from our midst within this last day and night! My eyes are red with the tears I have shed, my heart is heavy and my head too weary to comprehend the horror of it. And yet think we must, attempting to prevent more of the same. Sixteen of us there were before the deaths began; now there are ten, and two of them still wolves. One of the six deceased was a wolf whom we have vanquished, yet who is to say that there may not be a cursed villager who joins them to increase their numbers again?

We must choose wisely and debate with utmost care today. I for my part will do my very best to contribute, for I must atone for Shelob's death, of which I was, unwittingly, a cause. And I wish to avenge LMP's death, for we are now shown the true nobility he hid behind his careless ways. Who could have known that his concern for our comfort and rest was genuine, that all this time he was tirelessly protecting us in secret?

I will dry my eyes and return for speech with you all.

[the guy who be short]

Shelob innocent. Oh well.

I realise this incriminates me a little. I will do my best to analyze the situation, but I must go soon. Upon my return I shall make lots of interesting little lists and suggestions and such that will most likely lead us even more astray. Sigh.

As for now, I wish only to defend my innocence, and at the same time, though she may not will it, for it will look even more like we are working together, that of Esty's.

On day one, we did not vote together for the same reasons. I suggested voting for Shelob due to her silence before Esty voted. Esty voted at random.

Yesterday, though it may look like we were working together, many villagers seemed to reach the conclusion of Shelob's guilt. Though some of these may have been wolves, I recall that Esty and I were the first to vote for her (I think).

Now, as we had already voted for her yesterday, this would be an utterly stupid thing for wolves to do. It would be too incriminating. A wolf wouldn't play a lead part in killing an innocent, it just wouldn't be clever. We were the two that called for a Shelynching.

There is always the possibility that wolves would do something that obvious as a double bluff - it being far too incriminating so that nobody would suspect them. If this were the case, then there is absolutely no chance that both wolves would do this. Therefore, only one out of Esty and I would be a wolf. I am not a wolf. However, I do not buy into this theory, and am tempted to trust Esty almost as much as I do mormegil and Firefoot.

Please also note that I was correct in seeing LMP's death. I'm pretty sure that either morm of Firefoot will go next - so if either of you are the seer, make sure to drop a few hints, will you?

That is all. Coming soon: analyses of voting patterns, why the wolves killed LMP, who I believe innocent and guilty.

[Boromir88]

And still no one bothers listens to me, I'll have you know I still have never been wrong! Hmm, Anguirel, I said was innocent, Eomer I said was innocent, Shelob I said was innocent and that we should look at the ones trying lynch her. But no, no one ever listens to me, though I've never been wrong.

More later, I must get going, I just wanted everyone to know that.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

At the moment, I can't avoid being impressed with the wolves' strategy. I'm not sure what the entirety of it is just yet, but I'm impressed. The kill of LMP was... I'd say unexpected, but if I'd been paying more attention (blast my obscenely large amounts of [wenching] homework) to the game, I'd probably have expected it. Who garnered a large number of votes already yesterday? Me. Who kept pointing her sadly inaccurate finger at LMP? Also me. Who looks most guilty because now he's dead? I'll let you fill in that answer. Whose potential lynching would seriously aid the wolves? Me...

I have a class in a few minutes, but it's not at all long. I'll be back in little more than an hour, if that. That's when you'll see me defend my actions, defend some other people's, and try to figure out who should die next. If you're wondering, the answer remains "not me." See y'all shortly.

[the guy who be short]

DAY ONE:
Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

DAY TWO:
Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

Now then, before I say anything at all of importance, I do not think LMP was killed under suspicion of Seerism.
The innocence of morm, Firefoot and LMP was agreed upon by the village (excluding Fea) on Day two. Of these, it was agreed that LMP was the most innocent looking due to the position of his vote. This is why he is dead.
Now, perhaps there is some other reason - perhaps there were hints of Seerism in his posts - but I'll warrant that was the main reason. Alternatively, the wolves could have chosen the one out of those three who looked most Seery. I will have to anaylse LMPs posts later.

Now, morm and Firefoot are innocent. Esty, I have explained, looks innocent to me at the moment, though this could change. I am innocent, though I don't expect anybody to take my word for it. Excluding these four, this is what I find:

Enca sealed Shelob's fate - the other three Shelob-voters being innocent. This could have been an attempt to save Fea's life. Enca-Fea as wolves?

Fea voted for LMP despite his looking extremely innocent.

Mr U voted Feanor at a reasonably important time. I am tempted to forgive him for Day one and trust him (sort of) now. If one is a wolf, the other is not.

Lhuna voted for Mr U early when it seemed likely he would be dying Yesterday. This could be a wolf going with the flow to hide herself. I see a potential Mr U - Lhuna wolvish alliance here.

So:

Wolves:
Feanor
Encaitare

Potential Wolves:
Mr U
Lhuna

Unsure:
Formendacil
Boromir

Most likely Innocent:
Esty

Innocents:
Firefoot
mormegil
TGWBS

This is all liable to change as I mull things over.

Coming soon: Analyses of Innocent posts.

[Firefoot]

Oh, dear, two innocents dead, and our ranger one of them. Next to losing the Seer, that's the worst that could happen - hopefully our seer will have dreamed of a wolf last night, but there's nothing the rest of us can do for that.

I highly doubt that both TGWBS and Esty are wolves. Possibly one of them, but not both. I've not yet found anything in any of their posts to suggest wolvery, but I'll probably be doing a closer analysis today.

Concerning Fea (it always comes back to her, doesn't it?), LMP's death could be one of two things: a bold bluff or a set-up. I have no doubt that Fea isn't capable of the bluff, and, of course, if they thought LMP was the Seer then it wouldn't be such a hard decision. For me, Fea is just sort of hanging between innocent and guilty - I can't make heads or tails of her.

In general, I'm not overly surprised at LMP's death - I figured it would be me, Morm, or him. Just because of that, I'm not sure much information can be taken from his death. What may need to be looked at is why him and not us - who he was accusing and how that might cause wolves to kill him over us.

My top suspect is still Formendacil, though I'm starting to think that a connection between him and Underhill is too far-fetched. Underhill also seems to have been very consistent. He's starting to drop off my radar a bit. So one of the things I will be looking for is who else Formen might be associated with, as well as other possible pairs of wolves. At this point, there should be some clues to who our wolves are, whether in voting or somewhere else.

Edit - cross-posting with TGWBS and Fea.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And still no one bothers listens to me, I'll have you know I still have never been wrong! Hmm, Anguirel, I said was innocent, Eomer I said was innocent, Shelob I said was innocent and that we should look at the ones trying lynch her. But no, no one ever listens to me, though I've never been wrong.

More later, I must get going, I just wanted everyone to know that.

So have I Boro but at least I voted for a known wolf. Plus it's not always good to be correct it might show that you know too much.

Now I've been going over things a bit and a couple of things have popped out at me, one I will talk about the other I will wait. Feanor is quite possibly innocent, I know this is a sudden move from what I said earlier but I've been thinking and will explain why. The wolves know that there are many of us who know her well and would know some of the unpredictable nature of her behavior. Now a set up for Fea isn't anything that wolf-Fea couldn't handle and the wolves know it. So my proposal is that they set her up making us think it is an attempt to pull off a double bluff so we lynch her...what would that be a triple bluff or the undefined bait and switch bluff that LMP spoke of?

Anyway my point is while Fea has moved down a bit on my list somebody else has moved up a bit. I do not want to explain why yet because I want to continue to analyze his/her behavior but I went back and looked over some post and a couple of things jumped out at me. Now I will wait and see what s/he has to say.

Now it is likely that either Firefoot or I die tonight but there is also the possibility that having said this we won't. What a great way for the wolves to again spread confusion among us by keeping us alive and everybody asking "why aren't they dead yet". We've seen it before.

[the guy who be short]

The thing with the Fea situation is that it's impossible to know whether wolves set Fea up, whether Fea was being blindingly obvious killing LMP knowing we wouldn't suspect her, or whether wolves set her up knowing we'd think she were bluffing, or whether Fea knew we would think it were a double bluff and actually killed LMP... etc. etc. I can't see it a being anything less complex than a double bluff.

So Fea basically remains Mystery Girl.

I'm more concerned about Formy and Boromir, the two people I haven't labelled yet. I shall look over their posts and should come to a decision.

Currently, I'm undecided between voting Mystery Girl and Lhuna/Mr U.

Anaylses of innocent posts may be delayed or non-existant as they have moved down in my list of priorities. I want to figure out Form and Boro.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hello doves, I'm back. Expect a lengthy post from me in a while, as I've finally got some time to sit and analyze.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

*hums "I'm making a list, checking it twice..."

While I'm trying to gather evidence, I'd like to add what thoughts have occurred to me so far. Now, I don't know whether phantom's post indicates that the ranger was killed by primary wolf choice or while defending another villager. It would be interesting to know who it was, if the latter is true. Should it have been either the seer or the cursed villager, LMP will have saved us from a worse fate. So far, I'm not seeing evidence of the seer's identity, but we do need to lynch a wolf very soon, or the chances of them adding another are great.

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones. Boro88 voted for Formy both days, and Formy voted for Underhill both days. I'm not sure what that is telling us - does one of them have more knowledge than the rest of us?


[Arnold Schwarzenegger voice:] "I'll be back!" [/voice]

[the guy who be short]

Righto. I have emerged from my underground caverns once more.

I've just gone through everything Formen and Boromir have said. I noticed:

1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent.

2) Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence. However, he also claims wolves would be idiots to stay quiet - whilst being loud himself. Interesting, Eomer voted for Boro before being taken in the night. At the moment, I consider him neutral though.

Potential Wolf Pairs:
Mr U - Lhuna
Feanor - Encaitare

Neutral:
Boromir

Slightly Innocent:
Formendacil

Most likely Innocent:
Esty

Innocents:
Firefoot
mormegil
TGWBS

Possibly coming soon: Analyses of Eomer's posts on Day 1. I want to know why he died - this was never looked into on Day 2, strangely.

[mormegil]

Esty the way it works is if the Ranger protects somebody that the wolves attack then nobody dies. Therefore the wolves went for LMP. But who else jumped on your parallel voting with TGWBS other than I? TGWBS pointed it out too but nobody else? Are you nervous and trying to hide something?

Originally Posted by Esty

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones.

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm finding depressingly apparent things that I should have noticed before... don't worry, my big post is yet to come. But it should shed light on some things we would have done better to pick up on before. Like Eomer. And wolves' plans.

[the guy who be short]

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.

The lady is half dwarf, meaning she too must go to sleep several hours before the rest of you, or else turn to stone. The fact that we vote at similar hours is not, then, much of an issue.

As for voting for the same people, we have only done it twice, and if you read our posts, have different thought processes that lead us to the same conclusions.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I'm finding depressingly apparent things that I should have noticed before... don't worry, my big post is yet to come. But it should shed light on some things we would have done better to pick up on before. Like Eomer. And wolves' plans.

If you are saying what I think you are going to say I may even lower you further on my suspect list.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Actually, I almost didn't vote for Shelob for the very reason that TGWBS had her at the top of his list. But I decided to vote for the person who topped my own suspect list, regardless of what others do or don't. I will do the same thing today. I'm still looking through past posts, analyzing for myself, though I am also comparing with what others post today, of course.

[the guy who be short]

I missed this in my skimming before, but Eomer openly declared himself as Hunter:

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

So why did he choose to kill Cailin instead of Boromir? Cailin had already voted for him when Eomer voted, so it wasn't her vote. There must have been some reason he trusted Boromir.
That said, Boromir kept carefully neutral about the vote - claiming he believe Eomer innocent despite his vote. Would a wolf have snapped at the bait? In any case, this makes Boromir seem more innocent to me.

Originally Posted by CAILIN!

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.

Casts suspicion on Firefoot. She's innocent.
Casts suspicion on Esty. Innocent.

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.

[Firefoot]

Let's have a look at what he was thinking:

He started out on Day 2 here:
Wolfy - Lhuna and Mr. U.
Neutral to guilty - Fea and Encai

He started leaning towards Mr. U.'s innocence as the Day went on.

His last words:

I find Firefoot's reasoning rather persuasive, such that those she suspects have now been raised from NOT really concerned about yet, to "Questioning".

I Questioning: Mr. U. (dropped from suspect for now), Esty, Formy, & Shelob.

I Suspect: Enca & Lhuna, because of their votes for Anguirel. Yes, Enca says she's convinced of my innocence, which is something a werewolf might say; nevertheless, I'm not ready to vote for her. I'm also not yet ready to vote for Lhuna, whose vote for Anguirel could be read either way.

I Accuse: Feanor. Whereas she says the same things I say about not trusting anyone, she keeps on pointing her radar at me. If she's a werewolf, she knows I'm innocent, and I don't put it past her to continue to accuse someone most others seem to have accepted on the strength of my vote for Cailin, which would seem foolish for a werewolf to do, but Feanor is so capable of the double and triple bluff, that she's going to have to supply more proof (like being lynched and turning out to be innocent, for example) before I'm convinced she's not a wolf. There's just too much doubt and centripital force surrounding this individual to leave her in the game to cause further confusion.

++ Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill, and glad to see we voted alike.

It seems likely to me that one (maybe both) of the wolves would be on LMP's suspect or questioning list. That would be Esty, Formendacil, Mr. U., Encai, or Lhuna. If there were a wolf that wasn't on his list, I would be most inclined to suspect TGWBS, who I am extremely unsure about. He seems innocent, but I can't help but suspect him. I am currently inclined towards believing that killing LMP was a set up of Fea.

I would really like to hear more from Lhuna, which unfortunately probably won't happen before I go to sleep tonight. There just isn't enough to go off for her. I'd also like to hear more from Encai, as she is seeming more suspicious to me yet there's not a lot to back it up one way or the other.

[Encaitare]

The first thing I would like to address is the fact that people are taking note of the fact that I did break the tie between Fea and Shelob. However, don't look at the votes alone. In post 190, I as good as said that I would be voting for her:

Originally Posted by me

As I did yesterDay, I shall return in a bit to cast my vote. Right now I am leaning towards Shelob, although if anyone else has some really good arguments I'd be glad to hear them.

When I said this, the voting situation was like this:

Mr. Underhill – 1 (Lhuna 1)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 2 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

Think about it. If I had actually cast the vote at that time, would it be as big a deal? It has been suggested that Fea and I are the two remaining wolves. When I cast my vote, there was a tie between Shelob and Fea, and Mr. Underhill had two. If Fea and I were wolves together, I could have voted for Mr. U, thereby lynching both him and Shelob, and skipping over Fea.

I am now going to go through what has been said thus far and then post further thoughts.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Right now I'm going back to my theory that one of the votes for Anguirel on the first day was cast by a wolf. I was wrong with my first suspect, Shelob. I am now looking very closely at Encai; she voted for both lynched innocents on both days. On the second day, she broke a tie, thereby saving Fea's neck. On the first day, her vote came when Cailín was leading, creating a bandwagon effect for Anguirel, and away from the one wolf we know of so far. This would make me suspect Fea as her ally, though I'm not sure of my reasoning yet.

(cross-posted with Firefoot and Encai...)

[the guy who be short]

Esty, I have already mentioned a potential Enca-Fea team in an earlier post.

However, I did not notice that Enca had previously stated she would be voting Shelob. This does make her seem less suspicious.

Lhuna and Fea, followed by Mr U and Enca, seem most suspicious to me at the moment. I will probably vote for one of the former, and am leaning towards Lhuna.

[Boromir88]

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.~TGWBS

That's quite possible. I admit I said the same thing on the regards of Shelob and Lhuna on the first day, but that's the way I always am. Quietness usually isn't something that wolves do, especially on Day 1. They like to get out there and manipulate early, then sort of ride along with the "loudmouths." I'm considering Lhuna as a possible wolf.

With that being said, I was strong against Feanor as a wolf yesterday, today I'm less sure, because of lmp's death. Either Fea is pulling a bold bluff, or the wolves are trying to set her up, I think it's the latter. The wolves knew that at the end of yesterday Fea was attracting suspicion, so they set her up at night with lmp's death and have an easy victim that they think people will go after the next day. So, Fea's not a wolf, atleast from this moment (it may change).

So, who's our other wolf? I'm still considering mormegil, though nothing big. Firefoot I'm pretty convinced is innocent, after voting for Cailin, and then as tgwbs shows Cailin accusing her.

Since I think Fea was set up lastnight I think anyone that tries to push for her lynching is somewhat suspicious. Unless if someone here can convince me that Fea is pulling a bluff and not being set up?

[Formendacil]

Okay, it seems that quite a few people find me suspicious. Fine then, I'm suspicious. I've been there before while being innocent, and I expect to be proven so again. That said, I would find it a courtesy to know WHY people seem to think me so lupine. For what its worth, my own voting has not resulted yet in any killing of an innocent- a fact that has so far been overlooked.

Anyway, leaving the topic of stinky old me alone, here are my thoughts on the others:

mormegil: Still a member of the Innocent Three from Day 1. Of the three, he's the most likely to have been playing a wolfy game, but the possibility of that seems about 1 in a hundred.

the guy who be short: Also seems fairly innocent. Not as "proven" innocent as the Innocent Three (I guess that should be the Innocent Two now), but fairly innocent. However, he did vote for Shelob two days in a row, and was a part of a successful drive for her removal on Day 2. Whether that constitutes Wolfishness, or just a bit of being stuck on the wrong track, is difficult to say.

Encaitare's vote yesterday sealed Shelobs' fate. Her vote on Day 1 resurrected the bandwaggon that saved Cailin. Both acts, taken in that light, look highly suspicious. On the other hand, the possibility of coincidental timing is there. Day 1's vote could be construed as voting for a seemingly dead bandwaggon. Day 2's vote can be said to be a painful tiebreaker- with tragic results. However, Encaitare's record still seems mighty suspicious.

Boromir88 has so far voted for me and only me. On Day 1 I found that insulting (as everyone undoubtedly remembers), and on Day 2 I found that suspicious. However, although I know that Boromir was voting for an innocent, there's no evidence I can present to prove it, and I can only say that he's gone off down the wrong track. Oddly enough, this makes me somewhat more sure of his innocence, since I did the same thing back in my last village. On the other hand, it could be the quieter partner of a Wolfish partnership casting a quiet, more ignored vote...

Firefoot: The other surviving member of the Innocent Three. Firefoot, by the timing of her Day 1 voting, seems to be the most definitely innocent person we have. However, innocent or not, she DID vote for Shelob yesterday, casting the third of four votes for that innocent, a vote that could have been the killling one in a slightly different situation. IF that were the case, then her casual near-killing of Cailin on Day 1 could only be taken as a very bold move to kill off a partner in hopes of getting "Innocent" status for the rest of the village's lifespan. If so, it worked, because in spite of these "Devil's Advocate" questionings, she still makes my list of Innocents.

Lhunardawen is known to live in a different timezone, but I would be wary of calling her innocent based on that alone. It is entirely possible for her to be playing that to her advantage. Her vote on Day 1 saved Cailin from immediate destruction, and her very early vote on Day 2, with the explanation of "busy other life" could be a ploy to hide under the radar for the rest of the day. It's a coin toss, in my opinion, as to which is the case: hampered by timezones, or playing the timezones.

Feanor of the Peredhil has been looking very suspicious of late. LMP suspected her, and now he's dead. She has done her best to cast suspicion on the Innocent Three. Her voting record has not been spotless. Her vote for Boromir on Day 1 was his third- which brought him up to Cailin's number of votes, and may have been a risky plot to save her life. Her vote for LMP on Day 2 is less suspect, unless she was a wolf trying to appear unsuspicious. The possibility of innocence is there, but it's weak...

Estelyn Telcontar is getting used to the game, it seems, and the indications are that she is an innocent- but her two days in a row vote for Shelob is somewhat suspicious. Her vote for Shelob yesterday was the second on the bandwaggon, and by that timing could be said to have been what got the bandwaggon rolling. All the same, she seems harmless...

Mister Underhill is my old foe, it would seem. I've voted for him twice now. The first time on random reasons, the second time on suspicion of Wolfishness. His Day 1 vote brought Anguirel up to an even score with the wolf Cailin, and certainly helped save her from the noose. However, my suspicion of him has slackened somewhat, based on his Day 2 record. He cast the second vote for Fea, and did so later in the voting, when suspicion towards her was building- a dangerous thing for him to have done if he was a wolf, in my opinion. On the other hand, Fea WASN'T killed yesterday, and both of them are still alive today, so it COULD have been a bluff...

To sum up, in order:

Wolves?:
Fea

Probably Wolves?:
Mister Underhill,
Encaitare

Relatively Neutral?
Lhunardawen,
Boromir,
Estelyn,
TGWBS,

Mostly Innocent:
Firefoot,
Mormegil

[the guy who be short]

Morm:

1) Please explain why you suspect Formendacil.

2) Your crypticisms are most annoying.

[Boromir88]

Boromir88 has so far voted for me and only me. On Day 1 I found that insulting (as everyone undoubtedly remembers), and on Day 2 I found that suspicious. However, although I know that Boromir was voting for an innocent, there's no evidence I can present to prove it, and I can only say that he's gone off down the wrong track. Oddly enough, this makes me somewhat more sure of his innocence, since I did the same thing back in my last village. On the other hand, it could be the quieter partner of a Wolfish partnership casting a quiet, more ignored vote...~Formendacil

You're kind of on the right trail. It's true that I've been safe in my voting, and have voted for someone (ahem, you), because I was not confident in any of the people who were being called "wolves." (Even Cailin I admit, though I never said she wasn't a wolf, I just didn't think she was at that time).

Also, I'd like to point out another little thing when I voted. Votes were tied between me and Shelob on Day 1, if I was a wolf, I would have voted for Shelob, to save me. But, I did not think Shelob was a wolf (and oh she wasn't), so I didn't want to vote for her.

Same for yesterday, I did not think Shelob or Mr. Underhill were wolves, and Shelob wasn't, though Mr. U might be.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Morm:

1) Please explain why you suspect Formendacil.

2) Your crypticisms are most annoying.

1) There are times when it's not that I have a specific shred of evidence but rather a general feeling and I've found that these feelings have a good chance of being right. After his notorious reaction to Boromir's vote he seems to change according to what he thinks we want to see. Remember that the wolves have the ability to PM during the day so shifts in behavior can be suspicious that is what I found in Cailin in those post was an abrupt change in behavior.

2) Sorry but they will stay, because at times if you tip your hand too quickly the opportunity is gone. I am waiting out the day to see if suspicious behavior continues in one or two individuals and if it's cyrptic well that is my choice and hopefully it leads to good.

[Encaitare]

Going down the list...

TGWBS - Not really sure, but I'd like to respond to this:

Originally Posted by el tipo bajo

Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence.

Huh? There be no Sauce in this village. Methinks Boro was confused or making a joke.

Boromir88 - I still suspect him based on that "known innocent" comment. A wolf trying too hard, perhaps?

Feanor of the Peredhil - The fact that LMP voted for her could be telling. She might be a wolf who decided to off the only one who suspected her enough to make that vote. Her vehemence about how the wolves would be bluffing left and right makes me wonder if she put the image of loudmouth wolves in our minds, and then quietly killed LMP, most contrarily to her hypotheses about wolvish behavior. *goes mad trying to make sense of this*

Formendacil - As I said yesterday, his voting is interesting. What he does today could be telling.

Estelyn Telcontar - Her dramatic lament in post 205 was a bit much, I think.

Alas, my sister needs to use the computer for a project, which means that I shall have to return later. I'm sorry this post is so brief.

[the guy who be short]

Morm:

There are times when it's not that I have a specific shred of evidence but rather a general feeling and I've found that these feelings have a good chance of being right.

That's what I felt about Shelob... unfortunately, there are time constraints just at the moment, though I shall return later. Can you point to actual shifts Formen has made?

Also, though I believe you to be innocent, your crypticisms are most trying. Please do explain by the end of the Day, as you will most likely die in the Night.

[mormegil]

For those who believe that Firefoot and I are innocent my advice regarding the Fea-problem is to wait and see what she has to say in this alleged long post of hers. Let's wait and see what she has to say and analyze it from there. We are currently all talking ourselves in circles about her. One thing to be certain is that a Fea-wolf wouldn't shy away from accusing fellow wolves openly.

[Boromir88]

To clear up the Sauce thing once and for all, I wasn't making a joke, I honestly thought he was a player for some unknown reason. I think I was so excited to start this "experienced" Werewolf...thing, I just assumed Sauce was in it. And as far as my other suspicions those were jokes, I just thought it be fun to pick 3 random people label them as wolves and see how close I was .

With that being said I think I'll probably vote for Formendacil (what a surprise?) or Encaitare today.

And I think Feanor is being set up, that's basically what I'm thinking right now if you must know.

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Estelyn Telcontar - Her dramatic lament in post 205 was a bit much, I think.

I'm sorry if that post aggravated you - I was just trying to get into the role playing spirit of things and have a bit of fun, especially as it was morning and I didn't yet have time to write an analyzing post. Those who know my writing from the "Entish Bow" RPG may recognize my tendency to facetiousness and to exaggeration. There's so much out of character exchange during the day - I'm way out of character now! - that I thought it would be enjoyable to recapture a bit of that. However, if all prefer to drop any role-playing, I shall bow to the majority.

[mormegil]

Post 61

Introduction post not a big deal but of note he says that he thinks we should lynch a villager but HE’S not going to push for it…why?

Post 64

Refutes my random plan a bit but not with great sense—two random votes are not bandwagons. Bandwagons are when people vote one way because they see others doing it.

Post 73

Brings up my plan again saying it won’t work but casts doubt on Anguirel. Then says something about mass-abstaining from voting. He just said not too long before that we should lynch somebody now we are to mass-abstain from voting?

Post 103

A seemingly insubstantial post but it carries much weight to those who dig through it. He is bringing up his profession again and cast doubt on Anguirel for his opening vote and for me for suggesting some plan of action (it would seem that he thinks plans and coordination are bad things) Then he admits to being a supporter of, as he calls it, the anti-LMP bandwagon. This is from the person who just go done warning of random votes causing bandwagons now he is saying he is in favor of this one and why? Because of his personal life.

Post 114

Wow! There is something here that I did not perceive before

However, what's done is done, and I am still no closer to finding a victim

A victim? He says this rather casually but we are not looking for victims we are looking for offenders and murderers. This could possible be a great slip up. Also this is the notorious “I find this deeply insulting” post that raised red flags anyway and I think that is why I didn’t see this juicy tidbit before hand.

Post 117

Here he votes for Mister Underhill. His vote is in the middle of all the other votes at 7th and his reasoning seems decent yet I feel that we should give the new members of our village the benefit of the doubt on Day 1. He does not. It could be a possible attempt to get easy prey but it didn’t work. Now the problem with this vote it can be viewed either way and I recognize that. He could be an innocent voting for somebody he truly though suspicious or a werewolf picking on an easy target on Day 1 and yet not drawing too much attention on a more suspicious vote. So nothing incredibly concrete here.

Post 165

His first long post of the game. Basically he outlines what people did on the previous day and analyzes it. However, his analysis is more or less the same on each person. He identifies some aspect of potentially suspicious behavior and then negates it by saying that they could be innocent. Gives a broad suspect list at the end consisting of “late-voters” Fea and Mister Underhill with Lhuna and Encai after that. Says a lot but really doesn’t take a bold stand or stick out on anything.

Post 186

He answers my question regarding his reaction to his previous post. Says he was offended because Boromir voted for him because of his view on LMP. I say if there is nothing else to go on with Day 1 (because if Boro is innocent he didn’t see the problem with Cailin) then a vote for you for that reason seems legitimate enough. Defends himself and his vote for Mister Underhill at the end.

Post 192

A quick post in which he votes for Mister Underhill. He stated his reason up in post 165 and basically is was because Mister’s vote tied Ang with Cailin. A decent reason and I pointed out too that Mister’s vote was somewhat suspicious. This is the second day in which he voted for Mister Underhill and didn’t get much support.

Post 227

He’s quick to point out, like Boromir, that he hasn’t yet voted for a known innocent. As I’ve already stated that is not necessarily a good thing to point out. Who knows who known innocents are? The wolves of course. This is another point that could go either way but it’s worth mentioning.

This post is similar to 165 with a summary at the end of Feanor being the prime suspect and Mister Underhill and Encai below Fea. Mister Underhill is cut some slack here. Overall a decent post and seems helpful.

So what is my final assessment of Formendacil? A lot of insubstantial and small post mingled with a couple of long seemingly helpful post. Active enough to stay visible yet not stirring the waters so to speak. Yet overall I’m not sure but leaning to the suspicious side.

I hope that this satisfies both Formendacil’s request for why we suspect him and TGWBS’s request of the same.

[Firefoot]

Morm's analysis of Formendacil's post #165 is something I was just noticing as well. One of my suspicions about Formendacil comes from that he doesn't seem to put down a lot of really concrete ideas. He has put down some in 227 finally, but that's his first post all game that makes me look at him and think maybe he's innocent.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

He actually told us, though cryptically, that he was the hunter, or at least the ranger. "Beforehand" seems to point to the "wise" comments he'd just written himself (sadly, I'd interpreted them as "Hey, look for what the Seer wrote" and then played with the assumption that he was Seer before dropping the idea like a bad habit. I'd rather be assume I'm wrong than actually be wrong again.)

Originally Posted by Cailin

we still never managed to actually establish a wolvish behavior pattern.

This statement makes me nervous. By "we" should could be saying that there is no exact art to wolvery, as illustrated by many games, or she could be telling us that the wolves are playing this by ear, without definate plans. With all day PMing, it's an absolute possibility. It makes it that much harder for us to track them, with them not having a strategy.

Now I'd like to address each of you [living ones] in turn:

Boromir88: So he consistently wanted me to die, but now he's pretty sure I was set up. I'm okay with this, though it makes me wonder. Why would he change his mind about me when I've yet to change my mind entirely about him? I'm still leaning toward "let's kill him just to be sure". His comment about Saucie still makes me wonder. That was just weird. I still don't like his agitation technique of coming up with random wolf-packs. That's something that I would do. I don't trust other people acting like me. I'm supposed to be the crazy one. When other people act crazy, I wonder why. Also, his most recent triad of me, Formy, and LMP contains two innocents that I'm aware of: me and LMP. Couldn't tell you on Formy, but it makes me think. Also, how he keeps saying "Look how often I'm right!" He hasn't always been right, he's been calling me a wolf for the whole game, up 'til now. It would be a classic wolf strategy to pull out of a campaign just in time to say "Why'd you guys lynch her? I told you I thought she was innocent!" and accompany it with several melodramatic tears and such.

Encaitare: I'm beginning to wonder if I'm actually part of a conspiracy I don't know about, so good is the evidence against us. She killed off Shelob, which I'm okay with because it means that I'm still here, but I can't for the life of me figure out why she did it, even though she explained. You see... we all know that I'm confusing as all heck, and the world would be a calmer, less confused, and less pretty place without me. We know this. To be honest, it would make your lives less difficult if I was dead, much though I don't want to die because that means that a wolf won't go in my place. And yet, Encai broke a double vote. Shelob and I would have both been gone, getting rid of an unknown threat and a really confusing one in one fell swoop. But Encai saved me. Is she trying to build a false bond? While I'm grateful that she saved me, I think I'd have been more comfortable with her innocence if she hadn't. It just brings to mind an event in the first village I ever lived in where a wolf attached himself to my innocent self. Also, her suspicion in Cailin. Anybody who even mentioned Cailin pre-Eomer-death is on my list. I didn't notice anything about Cailin until after she died, so people who did make me wonder if they already knew.

Esty: I wouldn't call her safe, as I know that the lady has a devilish sense of humor and I'd put little past her. On the other hand, my feelings toward her parallel those I attribute to TGWBS a little further on.

Firefoot: I do not think that Firefoot is a wolf. Though her posting style of individual analysis is ideal for hiding behind, as she doesn't have to account for anything she says spur-of-the-moment, I still do not feel anything that makes me nervous. Also, based on the strength of my LMP error, I'm duly considering dropping my suspicion of those who voted for Cailìn. Just because it's what I'd have done, doesn't mean that it's what was done. Now, the point that she is leaning toward a set up of me makes me less nervous than it does with some others. Just about all those that I perceive as innocent perceive me as guilty as sin, and I'll admit that there's reason for it. I screwed up big time. At least you know though, that if I was a wolf, you'd probably never even assume my guilt.

Formendacil: I've never played with him before. Upon asked how that makes me feel... I replied "slightly nervous". *silly grin* In any case, I'm pretty fond of his worry of Underhillo. However his original idea of mass-abstention brings to mind the ideas of random voting. Though he says that morm's initial idea for that would leave no clues behind, not voting at all would be even worse. Like I said... he makes me nervous.

Lhuna: her sparse posts filled to the brim with lack of depth (I swear, they're so shallow I can see my own reflection in them ) make me wonder. Yes, she's in another timezone, but I still wish she was posting more. Especially as I seem to remember her saying she's on break now.

Mister Underhill: is bothering me a really lot right now. He's been the subject of widespread and strong suspicion for several days by multiple people. On Day One Formendacil was after him. On Day Two, Formendacil, Lhuna, Morm, TGWBS, B88, Esty, and Firefoot were. ToDay, TGWBS, Formy, Morm. He deftly avoids flat out accusations, leaning more towards inconspicuous questions perhaps made to look like typical new-player confusion, but that cast shadows on the actions of other without ever actually saying that he thinks they are guilty. He also rarely states who he thinks is guilty. He mentions that Esty is, due to her amateurity, but that is not cause for belief in innocence at all. He vaguely defends the supposed "Innocent Three" (down to two, sadly), but without a lot of conviction. The fact that we are all aware of his intellect, and are seeing posts that skirt issues as neatly as the papers I write at 2:00 AM and hand in at 8:00 do, is making me wonder. Combining that with the sheer number of people that suspect him heavily, you can only conclude that it's not simply the wolves trying to cast suspicion. When at least seven people (myself included in that) think that somebody is really fishy, we need to take a closer look.

mormegil: Though he's part of that Innocent Three that I've been adamently trying to get you guys to not trust in, I'm starting to trust in it a little. But I'll get to that shortly. Apparently I can't trust in the insanity that works so well for me. It means that I actually had to start thinking logically. Just like the rest of us, morm had a 1/5 chance of becoming a wolf. Now what makes me nervous is that he did vote for Cailin. That's going back to my initital skepticism that a wolf would give up such a great opportunity to steal a place of Innocence. Especially his Day One statement going with his initial plan of random lynching: wolves will almost certainly help out their fellows. He's played with wolves before that have absolutely no qualms about getting each other killed. I know that he wouldn't overlook the possibility. However I'll note that he mentions the possibility of a LMP/Footie conspiracy, so I discount my earlier thoughts slightly because of it. But what bothers me more than all that is that he noticed Eomer's little note. Perhaps he is simply an incredibly bright innocent, or perhaps he knew where to look. Even better, perhaps he Saw it. Who knows? Certainly not me. I'm still trying to figure out if you guys know something about me that I don't. My point with this, which I think I accidentally lost track of, is that yes, morm has a decent chance of being a wolf, just like the rest of us. Yes, he knows things about wolvery based on past experience. Yes, he did two things that made me nervous. But I also think that if he was a wolf, he wouldn't have done those two things because he knows how I think in terms of wolvery, and he would surely understand that I'd notice those things because it's what I'd be doing. I also vaguely think that I think too much in terms of what I would be doing. I'm going to try and stop doing that.

TGWBS: Doesn't seem particularly dangerous. Admittedly I'll kick myself if I'm wrong, but I'm not exactly worried about him. Though he voted for the innocent Shelob twice, it was not as obstinant a vote as mine for LMP, as we had little to go on for Shelob and she was a dangerous variable. He is entirely correct in being suspicious of the ones who give you nothing to use to proove their innocence. I fully understand his suspicion of Encai and myself. Heck, the proof half convinces me that I'm in on a conspiracy, and I know that I'm not.

Next: Why I'm innocent.

You keep saying that I made silly mistakes. As a wolf, I don't make them. When I was formerly overcome by the spirit of evil (oh so thankfully vanquished these days), I looked more innocent than the innocent ones did. That's how that village became... no more. Just remember... each time you assume that I'm bad, I'm not. And when you assume I'm good, you should kill me. Since you all currently suspect me (minus those creepy ones that accurately think I've been framed) I can honestly tell you that you're wrong

PS: betcha there are a LOAD of crossposts. Be thankful you didn't get the six pages of notes I took.

[Mister Underhill]

Fellow villagers -- just a quick note for now. I'm still trying to catch up on this morning's posts, but I didn't want to sit here quietly. I'm gonna have a hard time posting much today, but I'll do my best.

Quick notes: despite my vote for Fea and my suspicion of her over the past two days, I have to agree with morm that I'm starting to rethink her guilt.

Enca is definitely moving up on my radar. Two key votes in the lynching of innocents and a crafty, hard-to-pin-down game all around.

Trying to figure out why lmp was the victim -- was he targeted as a potential Seer, or not? It makes sense to me that wolves would avoid targeting villagers that were viewed with suspicion -- by keeping suspects alive, it helps them hide. So conversely, it makes sense that they would prefer to target villagers that no one suspects. Which, unfortunately, doesn't give us much to go on.

More later...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm trying to find a pattern in all of this, but I can't seem to cut my list of suspects down definitively yet. As I explained earlier, Enca and Fea are on it, Formy and Lhuna too, and most others are uncertain to innocent in my eyes right now. I'm debating whether to sleep on my ideas in hopes of waking up bright and early with the solution, or whether to stay up long enough to make a decision this evening...