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02-04-2011, 06:50 AM | #201 |
Pilgrim Soul
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We have known roles - Legate was a cobbler (got something right) and Wilwa a common or garden innocent. Bad news for the village is that they lost 3 non wolves in a night.
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02-04-2011, 06:53 AM | #202 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Sorry, but I'm now going to end this "I know you can't trust me on this issue, but maybe you could be so nice as to consider..." etc. stuff and will go straight into how this game is now. You can then think yourselves whether you consider it worthwhile or not. Up to you.
Residents of Mandos: Mänwe - ordinary innocent (N3 dream) Nogrod - the seer Blind Guardian - innocent whose role has been taken away Feanor of the Peredhil - ordo or cobbler Aganzir - Beren (also N1 dream) Shastanis Althreduin - Lúthien Thinlómien - ordo or cobbler Nessa Telrunya - ordinary innocent (N4 dream) Loslote - ordinary innocent (N5 dream) Mithalwen - unknown innocent In the living thread are still: Glirdan A Little Green elronds_daughter Nerwen satansaloser2005 the phantom - a cobbler (N2 dream) Boromir88 Anguirel So 8 players. 3 wolves (until either Wilwa or Legate were wolves) and at least one cobbler (tp). Unless Mith is the ranger, there are four innocents including the ranger and the hunter. Be that as it may, the most probable scenario seems to be there are 3 wolves + 1-2 cobblers (wilwa or Legate could have been cobblers but probably not wolves) vs. 3-4 goodies. Looking at how easily the wolves have handled the lynches thus far there is no reason to believe they'd fare any worse toDay with the remarkably smaller village where they are even able to take some risks toDay to meet their ends. In any case, they need only two non-wolves killed and they win, while the chances that the villagers manage to actively lynch one of them are slim indeed, in not just nonexistent. So in practise the thing that could grant us some added time is the hunter getting killed and taking one wolf down with her/him. Here: enter the cobblers who know their math. My prediction: the phantom will try to get lynched toDay to give the wolves a non-hunter to the gallows to make it safe for the wolves (and he'd love to get in here to spend even the last Night among us here - basically to brag; I presume ). And why not, if there is another cobbler, s/he might try the same... (whom, if identified correctly by the ranger would lead to the odd situation where the ranger's best bet would be to protect a cobbler...) A ranger-save could prolong the game with at least one Day as well. Although the wolves might drive for a double-lynch as well toDay. All in all, I'm not too optimistic about the general situation, but I am slightly optimistic that we can come up with decently believable chart of the roles down there among the living with the aid of which we could try to help the villagers with the lynch - if they can pull their act together that much as to get one wolf contending for the lynching for real. Without that there's no way we can help them now. EDIT: X'd with Rikae & Mith - So Legate was a cobbler! Good news for a change.
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02-04-2011, 07:40 AM | #203 | ||
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YesterDay's voting:
Ang -> Lottie Green -> Sally Nerwen -> Elron Sally -> Lottie 2 Lottie -> Wilwa Glirdan -> Ang NONWOLFMith -> Lottie 3 COBBLERtp -> Elron 2 Elron -> Boro ++ Ang -> Lottie 4 I'm somehow uneasy with Fea there.It may be I'm paranoid as she basically did well to prevent the double-lynch. But something still bugs me. The reason for it I can see though: with Fea's decision it is clear Elron, whom many of us suspected more or less, was saved. Also Fea's claim to do that to prevent a double-lynch 9 minutes before the DL when there were still 7 votes possibly coming looks a bit odd and casts a doubt on to her motives behind the move. This is what she said 9 minutes before the DL when changing her vote from Nerwen (voted Elron) to Anguirel (voted Lottie): Quote:
Fea - Nerwen --> ed Lommy - Greenie --> sally Agan - Nerwen --> ed Nog - Angu --> Lottie And Shasta hadn't voted. The probability that if he turned around to vote was high he'd gone with Agan in voting Nerwen as well (thus giving our extravote against Elron). With changing her vote Fea made it sure our extravote would not go against Elron. That scenario would then aptly explain her clear joy after the results came and her change of mind had actually prevented a double lynch (quite improbable at the time she changed her mind?): Quote:
I'm sorry Fea if you're not a cobbler, but I hope you see why I have come to these suspicions. On another note. I am a bit disappointed with how the lynching of Lottie in fact went. While reading it yesterday in a hurry it felt like there were things going on and that we might be able to read something from it - but it does look more confusing now... Well, we still have time to read and think.
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02-04-2011, 08:18 AM | #204 | ||||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Things are starting to happen?
What do you think of Ang's performance there?
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But then again, if Mith is not the ranger (which I was kind of hoping for for a few reasons we might discuss later) as she hasn't claimed to be it, then a ranger-Ang could have been the one protecting her, and thus his suggestion might be a trap for the wolves or cobblers to come forwards promoting it? Quote:
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Also, after hearing about Legate having been a cobbler he ponders whether that puts an end to my believability.But still feel the need to post once more to state this: Quote:
I can see Ang both ways but right now I'm more tempted to lean towards him being a crafty wolf. It's not a wide margin though and partly rests on my quite unfounded assumption that Elron could be a wolf, and that he's better in maths than that. What do you think?
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02-04-2011, 08:34 AM | #205 | |
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Okay, they are at it now!?
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What I said... *Yells to the game-thread: "Don't listen to them Glorfindel!!!"* Yes, we'd need her/him here, but only if we have a game to go on in the first place. And now it will only pay for the wolves to know her/his identity. The ranger can protect her/himself to be sure, but as the wolves know s/he was protecting Mith the Night before the chances are good s/he protected her/himself last Night. So s/he woud be killable the coming Night... Please hunter, make yourself the target and hit it right!
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02-04-2011, 08:38 AM | #206 | |
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Boro continues...
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Lynch the phantom (not the hunter), out the ranger and kill her/him at Night (not the hunter) as s/he will probably not be able to self-protect... = Wolf Victory!
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02-04-2011, 08:51 AM | #207 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Sextuple posting? Shutting up for a while now...
Heh, I'm trying not to get too carried away with my theory - and I admit it might be wrong at least on some of the concerned - but if Ang, Boro and Elron are the wolves (and Fea the second cobbler), I'm claiming some bragging rights for this.
Anyway, when I come back I try to see this from some other angle not to get stuck with what now looks like a good theory, well decent... at least plausible. Anyway the first wholesome theory that is backed by some real "evidence". If someone has time s/he could check whether what I said would make sense looking at the votings and the possible leering behaviour around them / saving Elron.
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02-04-2011, 08:53 AM | #208 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Okay. I'm going to rock some suspension of disbelief (even though I'm not a cobbler).
Nog: what do YOU think we (the Dead) should be doing right now, and what do YOU think they (the Living) should do toDay?
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02-04-2011, 09:10 AM | #209 | |
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Quote:
We the dead should try and come up with the most accurate view of the situation there among the living as possible aka. who are the wolves and how they try to play it out as they need only two innocents dead? The living should pull their act together and get at least one wolf on top of the lynching list (first or second most votes but not more than one vote's difference if second) - then we could try to help near the DL by giving the extravote to lynch the suspected baddie. That should be the top priority - and the only thing that would immediately affect the game giving us more time. Otherwise we need to just pray for a hunter-kill. Sadly neither is totally under our own control: if the goodies don't give us a probable wolf for us to vote with a consequence (one added vote being enough), then no can do; if the wolves don't kill the hunter / s/he is not lynched, then no can do. Heh, I just saw Nerwen's post... one more candidate for cobblery... EDIT: just saw Nerwen posting a second post which looks quite reasonable... *sigh*
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02-04-2011, 09:32 AM | #210 |
Pilgrim Soul
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I doubt the ranger would have protected themself last night assuming I was the previously protected one. HAving failed once the wolves would have wanted a certain kill especially since their target was widely spoken of as innocent. I have only once been lynched as an innocent and my voting decisions tend to be better at endgame when I have a cleared picture. Glorfy would have been certain enough I were doomed and would't have wasted a self protect.
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02-04-2011, 10:41 AM | #211 | |
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Quote:
First of all, they might try to suggest sending the ranger to Mandos to gather knowledge via a lynch - with the false pretense that they have already bagged one wolf and that they have time for it (which they don't - even if they had bagged one wolf already, which they haven't either - compare to the speculation about it being reasonable to think they have done it already *Nerwen*), thus leaving the village unprotected for two Nights... Or depending on the general mood, if it goes against lynching the ranger (why they haven't openly suggested it yet), the identity of the ranger known would help them determine whom s/he might protect if not her/himself... critical things if the ranger is still alive and they need a "clean shot" the next Night to win immediately. But all this raises some doubts in me for my initial theory anyway. So what do you think, how probable it is the innocent villagers really think they have gotten one wolf already? If they were confident about that, it would be more understandable they speculated about the ranger themselves s well (so not everyone calling for the ranger to come out would be bad per se, but only unthoughtful... although even that leaves me puzzled as to why don't they see how on the edge they are, were it that way. Let me speculate. Looking at it that way, an innocent confident on one wolf already bagged would have it 2-6. Looking at how many have died (add the popular meme I am a cobbler & the case Legate), they'd probably think there is one cobbler left there. So 2-1-5? Losing two innocents before toMorrow (lynch & Nightkill) would mean toMorrow numbers would be like 2-1-3 (end of game most probably) or 2-4 (chances to play). But the ranger would be back only the Day after that... so they'd think they'd have to hang on without any knowledge for a full Day after that with either of the odds above. As I said, quite puzzling. If an innocent thought of the odds for survival they'd need to go for a wolf and fast, even if they thought they were one wolf down. And there Boro says let's lynch the phantom even if he is just a cobbler! The "ranger method" is basically too slow now as s/he would be back there only two Days from now giving the wolves ample chances to kill people with no ranger around protecting them. And with Mith gone there is no other news the ranger might give them. And the wolves know there are three of them so none of the above really puzzles them, but they may try to play on that. But trying to separate possible innocent speculation from the malicious ones, what do you think - especially Mith and other "latest arrivals" - is there a feeling there that they have rid themselves of one wolf already? (I'm especially thinking about Ang here and whether I should reconsider what he said back there - needs to check it myself as well.)
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02-04-2011, 10:47 AM | #212 | |
Woman of Secret Shadow
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Welcome Mith!
Quote:
I am paranoid about everyone (except Shasta, Mith and Fea). Yes, even the phantom - although I'm sure he isn't an ordo. Either he's a cobbler, or he's the hunter or the ranger who wanted to stay alive as long as necessary and is now trying to get himself killed... I wouldn't put it past him to scheme like that even if it confused the rest of the village. But this time he looks much worse than when I last saw him do it. I'm going to do some delving into the early days now.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 02-04-2011 at 10:47 AM. Reason: xed with Nog |
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02-04-2011, 10:51 AM | #213 |
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Exactly. I really dislike that. They've kept phantom alive long even though he's been looking mighty suspicious and only now that they really need to get a wolf are they starting to think about lynching him...
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02-04-2011, 11:09 AM | #214 |
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If my hunch is correct then Glorfindel has the nous to go their own way.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
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02-04-2011, 11:11 AM | #215 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Right now it looks like Boro and Nerwen are playing for lynching the phantom. And lynching a cobbler would be very good for the wolves toDay - unless the ranger comes to the fore and the general mood could be made to lynch her/him fr unrealistic hopes for info.
On yet another thing (I promised to stop with this begging, but this is actually worth mentioning to you "doubting Thomases"). If I'm not the seer, what do you think the actual seer is doing right now? S/he's been overtly quiet even if all reason says s/he would have some news to ease the innocent's tough situation. No responsible seer would go quiet toDay. So a false reveal coming up? Possibly. But the wolves have it good now and probably even forget to think about that - which would actually mean they at least see I was the seer and have it comfortable with it. What kind of puzzles me is that the innocents seem to have forgotten the seer as well: people say I was not the seer but no one is talking about the "real" seer coming forwards. Where is s/he lurking when the village needs her/him? Remember: Ang and Boro started speculating about the ranger coming forwards, not the seer. Shouldn't they have called the seer to give them some information? No, they said they need the ranger to come forwards for information!!! Also, when the seer enters here he calls himself that - and you know no one else has said it but me. Why? Because I am the seer. That's also why no one comes forwards in the living thread. And it would be a tough mission to pose as a seer there as the fake-one should have a believable history of five dreams with exact roles (if two of the 3-4 ordinary innocents have special roles that's a tough call for the faker as the innocents will imediately realise if it goes wrong). If there is a false revelation, let me predict it will have a host of dead players with it with the apology of "sorry guys but they just died before I got to reveal them"...
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02-04-2011, 11:17 AM | #216 | |
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Agan: Before you continue on making the points I have already made, please read first what I have said toDay. I think the situation is pretty much dire and we need not waste time parrotting each other. Like this:
Quote:
Okay. I need to be off for now though (hmph, just as some others finally join in... ), but I'll be back later.
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02-04-2011, 11:18 AM | #217 |
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If Blind Guardian was the seer we lost some dreams. Replacement may either have had dreams that revealed nothing useful or information not appropriate to reveal. After all we have at least 2 good gifteds left and I would not expect the seer to "out" Glorfindel or the Hunter.
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02-04-2011, 01:19 PM | #218 | |||
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Good job Anguirel. I am not very surprised, and I doubt we're going to see a counter reveal (although I kind of hope for one)...
I wonder if he'll join us tonight. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
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02-04-2011, 01:27 PM | #219 | ||
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Anguirel must be a wolf
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Also looking at the way Boro started going after the phantom for real (a build up and then voting him) and tp starting this more agressive defence all seem to fit. Agan: sorry about that "parroting" -remark, but I was just getting offline after almost five hours of work with the thread feeling I had finally gotten us forwards and you seemed to totally ignore what I had done (especially the things which I thought important eg. the actual suspicions) and only restated few of the general things I had stated already... but the way you stated them looked like you presented them as your own ideas thus letting me understand you hadn't read anything I had posted. Which frustrated me quite a lot. Sorry. Mith said: Quote:
Okay, I know I start slowly to sound like myself on D2 *frowns* but the inactivity of most and the ignorance & open willingness to not even consider anything I say does make me feel less interested to put up an effort. EDIT: X'd with Agan
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02-04-2011, 01:30 PM | #220 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Oops! *Ang's revelation*
Well that... gives food for thought.
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02-04-2011, 01:32 PM | #221 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
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Haven't read your post yet but I totally cracked up at the title! :----D Like, how much more cobblerish can you get?
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02-04-2011, 01:38 PM | #222 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Quote:
If Ang is the ranger he will join us as the wolves and cobbler(s) will talk it that way. And unless the hunter performs miracles (if given a chance) we have lost when the next Day dawns. If Ang is a wolf he will not join us. But if the real ranger then counter reveals s/he either comes here or is then known to the wolves. Not that complicated at all? EDIT: X'd with Agan again
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02-04-2011, 01:38 PM | #223 | ||
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Quote:
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 02-04-2011 at 01:39 PM. Reason: xed with Noggers |
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02-04-2011, 01:42 PM | #224 |
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Tell me how it helps the village that the wolves can avoid the hunter for sure?
Tell me also how it helps the village if the ranger leaves the village unprotected for two Nights in a row? Crack only after that, if you can.
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02-04-2011, 01:42 PM | #225 | |
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Quote:
Generally I don't think a wolf would fake-reveal as the role that can be proven, but it's so late now (and in the worst case they don't need to survive long to win) that they might even think about it. Still, it doesn't seem very likely. Angu was considered pretty innocent. (Yes I believe his claim.)
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02-04-2011, 01:43 PM | #226 |
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Well I was right about Ang. was sure he was Glorfindel.
And it is only a theory about BG. But frankly I find almost anything easier to believe than Nogrod really being the seer.
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02-04-2011, 01:46 PM | #227 | |
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Quote:
And yeah, dying is the price you often have to pay for being a known innocent, at least for a while (and thus narrowing down the village's chances of catching a wolf). Anyhow I wasn't laughing at the content, it was just freaking hilarious that soon after Angu's ranger reveal my cobbler suspect no 1 titles his post "Anguirel is a wolf!"
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 02-04-2011 at 01:46 PM. Reason: xed with Mith |
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02-04-2011, 01:46 PM | #228 | |
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Quote:
But there are things happening now - and this is most probably the last Day of the game - so I'm wondering why do you use an hour to read D1&2 when the plots are finally being played out now?
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02-04-2011, 01:47 PM | #229 |
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Exactly. There are two options: BG was the hunter, or the seer. It's 50-50.
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02-04-2011, 01:49 PM | #230 |
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Because I consider it worth my while, silly. I need some coherency, some background.
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02-04-2011, 01:56 PM | #231 | |
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Where did you pull this from? I don't understand a word of it
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Wolves win straight if two non-wolves are the next two dead (a doublelynch toDay or a lynch and a succesful Nightkill). Which are the obstacles: the ranger (can save someone during the Night) and the hunter (can take one of them with if lucky/good). What have Boro and Ang been doing toDay: trying to out the hunter and the seer. I find Ang's "hunter should reveal" the most vicious one. What would follow if the hunter revealed? The wolves would know whom to avoid killing. If the ranger reveals the wolves know if s/he is the correct one. Then they will talk the villagers to lynch the ranger and leave the village unprotected for two Nights. And there will be no Day when the ranger could go back as the game is over. Clear enough now?
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02-04-2011, 02:07 PM | #232 | ||
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Quote:
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I'm not going to defend my position the whole Night another time, but I do beg you ask yourselves, what is the reason behind your conviction that no proof will turn it over or can even question it? You should start by reading what I said toDay as you clearly haven't. (Especially Agan's comments and questions reveal she has not even bothered ) Btw. if I was a cobbler I would be gloating already...
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02-04-2011, 02:15 PM | #233 | |||
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Quote:
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 02-04-2011 at 02:15 PM. Reason: xed with Nog |
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02-04-2011, 02:18 PM | #234 | |
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I won't, provided that you won't blame me for losing like you were prone to do on day 2...
Quote:
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02-04-2011, 02:45 PM | #235 |
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Here and catching up. Seems like reading the dead thread has given me enough headache, next I should read the living thread...
A few thoughts: - good that we're one (more?) cobbler down and he won't even be able to mess stuff up here - I admit my ignorance might be because I haven't read everything that's been said 100% carefully, but I can't see how my one vote was so disastrous yesterDay - I doubt a cobbler/wolf would reveal as Glorfy at this point so I trust Ang unless he's said something totally silly (shall see soon) - hi Mith hope you don't mind I say I hope you're a cobbler like I suspected - we should definitely not vote to steer the lynch in a way that conveys false messages! the living trust us, and if we tell them that I was a wolf and they start looking for connections that don't exist toMorrow that might doom them for the whole game - believe it or not, my to believe or not to believe debate has actually led me to almost belive Nog's claim. If he's not the seer, where is she?! Now off to read the rants of the living.
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02-04-2011, 02:48 PM | #236 |
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Nope I am not a cobbler. I genuinely thought you were a wolf.
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02-04-2011, 02:49 PM | #237 | |
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Quote:
Also I said earlier toDay that the name of the ranger is important to them even if they don't manage to send her/him here (they'd need to sense the air whether to go for it or not - that's why they were testing the air there and preparing for the possibility) as the name could give them clues as to whom the ranger might protect (if not him/herself). And looking at how easily they have steered the lynches thus far they'll have nothing to worry on that front - especially if tp plays along and sacrifices himself (not a hunter so safe lynch)... So the village will not gain anything with "known innocents" they can not trust anyway but the wolves will do everything with the names of the last gifteds. And many other things... But I have told these already. Really. I've said this all already. Will entertain myself with tv now as talking without being heard is less fun than a mediocre scifi movie..
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02-04-2011, 02:50 PM | #238 |
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Posts: 9,455
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Oh I am inclined to believe Elrond's daughter too. That vote last night. Contrary to all evidence there can't be so many cobblers and it makes sense she wouldn't be so bothered about staying alive at this point,
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
02-04-2011, 03:13 PM | #239 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Gah this game is really seriously headache-y. Anyway, I shall be here soon again but now I have to let Greenie post and go to sleep (sharing the computer tonight).
Seriously though, I have no idea who are the wolves and which gifted claims to believe but I guess it's not so much my problem given I'm here and they are (mostly) there.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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02-04-2011, 03:32 PM | #240 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,455
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I do trust Ang - admittedly if he were a wolf he would probably want me dead for historical reasons and wouldn't hesitate but I think his playing is consistent with being a ranger. He mention Draugluin early on which was the ranger role I played in the game he modded. And it is almost certain I was protected before I was killed and that made it more likely Ang was the ranger. I think I would be a higher priority for him than the others.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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