Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Mithalwen]

OK, so I Inzil, you don't think it is worth considering looking at Morsul, you don't think trying to get information out the dead will be useful and you have voted for one of the people who seems to have a good grasp of the situation. I fully appreciate we don't have a lot but it makes it even more odd that you dismiss it. I didn't miss a cobbler role in the list did I?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Because we don't want to end up with leaving the Dead with no directions until two minutes before DL.

I'll promise not to come back to this issue any more toDay, but... should we learn to think that the Living (who are blind and contested more strongly by evil) are in no position to "leave directions" to the Dead (who will eventually know and understand things) but they should be "leaving directions" to the Living?



Now off to other issues... aka. back to yesterDay's voting.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

This sounds so awfully fishy that you must be aware that it does. What Lommy just said about the Cobbler-acting. I am not really sure what you are playing at here, but either you adopted some really awkward style or there is something else you are running here.

I mean this goes exactly into the book "a Wolf or EW would not act so boldly, except if they wanted us to think just that". Maybe a straight question, then - do you still want to be lynched or not?

Yes, sometimes I just want to find peace and quiet and let go the earthly burdens. Nothings changed over N2 and into D2 but (and you know nothing that comes before the "but" really matters), but that doesn't mean nothing will happen in the future to change my circumstances. And that doesn't mean I want to have to vote for myself again today. Lommy made a really good and logical argument behind her vote yesterday, and I was thinking ya know, I'd hate to be turned and used as a pawn in the contest of wizards and dwarf schemes. I much prefer to be my own master.

[Lalaith]

I've read over today's posts. Brinn, Legate and Mith are offering opinions that are both trenchant and sensible and thus to me feeling non-wolfish.

Well...Kuru's "clarification" is interesting. However despite this I'm still feeling a bit concerned about the people who are arguing that there might have been no wolf created on Night One. Maybe I'm just a simple uncomplicated sort of girl but I maintain that it seems such a weird and risky strategy for a EW to adopt that as a theory it's exactly the sort of bone a bunch of wolves might concoct to throw to the crowd to get them off the scent. So Nerwen, Eomer, Boro, ho hum to y'all. Nogs is coming up with lots of theories all scattergun-like, including the no-wolf-on-N1, but that's his way, as I recall, and so I'll hold off there for a while.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll promise not to come back to this issue any more toDay, but... should we learn to think that the Living (who are blind and contested more strongly by evil) are in no position to "leave directions" to the Dead (who will eventually know and understand things) but they should be "leaving directions" to the Living?

I mean, yes, but that's what the Visitors are for, aren't they?

I think the main benefit of having as rigid as possible rules is that it means that even if we in the Living Thread sometimes get a false signal, it will help those in the Dead Thread work out what's going on.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Yes, sometimes I just want to find peace and quiet and let go the earthly burdens. Nothings changed over N2 and into D2 but (and you know nothing that comes before the "but" really matters), but that doesn't mean nothing will happen in the future to change my circumstances. And that doesn't mean I want to have to vote for myself again today. Lommy made a really good and logical argument behind her vote yesterday, and I was thinking ya know, I'd hate to be turned and used as a pawn in the contest of wizards and dwarf schemes. I much prefer to be my own master.

And while on this topic...

Personally I feel Inzil looks the worst/most sinister today. Where myself, I'm trying to make the best of being stuck in this pit of despair Kuru calls home, without also being reckless/careless, or if I am reckless/careless it only impacts my own luck in life.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Nogs is coming up with lots of theories all scattergun-like, including the no-wolf-on-N1, but that's his way, as I recall, and so I'll hold off there for a while.

I've been thinking it most probable that there was a wolf already on D1 - why would I have spent the last hour reading the posts from yesterDay if I didn't think there was?

If there was only the EW on D1 the D1 was mostly futile as there is no relations to read - as there were none. But if there was a wolf and an EW, then it becomes at least theoretically possible to find something.

I asked about it because I wanted to know whether we could actually KNOW it or whether we could only think it probable. I mean if N2 kill is impossible with a wolf turned only on that very same Night, then it is a proven thing there was a wolf on D1 in the game (as there was a confirmed kill) - if it is possible for the EW to make her first wolf and make a kill during the same Night, then it would be only probable there still was a wolf among us on D1.

The only thing that now kind of troubles me is the way Kuru has avoided answering that question... but without any better leads I'lll stick to the idea that there was a wolf on D1 and I'm currently looking for any jackpots on D1 voting which ended in a tie - so is there anything looking like a helping hand -situation where a baddie helped another to avoid the gallows?

Hope that cleared my meaning...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I mean, yes, but that's what the Visitors are for, aren't they?

They are the Bonus - if we ever get that far.

Last time we never get the "returner" to go back in time. So I'd not count on them, but like I said, it would be a nice bonus if we got one.

I think the main benefit of having as rigid as possible rules is that it means that even if we in the Living Thread sometimes get a false signal, it will help those in the Dead Thread work out what's going on.

Here we seem to disagree. The Dead don't need our help, we need theirs. they may know, we definitively don't. So let us give them the initiative as they are the ones who most probably know where to look.

Okay, I promised to shut up with this issue toDay...

[Thinlómien]

One observation from the voting yesterDay: in order to prevent a tie (and thus no lynch) in the future, please keep your actual voting posts short in the future (you can reason in a subsequent post) and refresh the thread before you post your vote!

I read Nerwen's summary of Morsul's posts. The only thing that keep standing out to me is that he seemed very much like an ordinary innocent villager. What the??

Also is someone *side-eyes Eomer* really suggesting the EW would kill a wolf??? I'm astonished by Kuru's latter clarification that the EW can kill a wolf in the first place. O tempora, o mores!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Secondly I'm quite strongly opposing Eönwe's plan of trying to tie the hands of those in the Dead-thread beforehand to some easily misguided scheming where the dead-vote is used with insecure methods trying to communicate possibly things that are not of any consequence even if the living might think so. Having spend basically the whole last game in the Dead-thread I did swore quite often to the stubborn and arrogant hubris within the Living-thread where they thought they were doing something witty and productive when they actually had no idea what was really going on. And I was not the only one thinking like that.

Let's remember that the Dead are a lot wiser than we the living are - and the gap between their understanding and ours widens everyday.

So you think we should just let the dead empower who they want and affect our vote that way? Or?

It's not a fault in your plan it's a fault in general but I really don' like the fact that once the dead start empowering people we are even more likely to cause a tie by accident. But what can we do about it? Tell the dead not to empower anyone?? Surely that's no desirable either.

Originally Posted by Legate

Which we should pay attention to, btw - because while yesterDay it was either one or two baddies (presumably two), which gets easily lost in a village like this, if it's three now and four (!) toMorrow (or potentially, at least), this can get off the rails very fast.

Hear, hear! Remember to watch out for odd shifts in behaviour OR odd stagnation to previous Days' ideas. Or sudden loss of willingness to play, which can happen when you are 'forced' to switch sides.

Originally Posted by Lottie

There will be three clear options - empower someone from one group of people if person x was innocent, from a second group if evil, and from a third, failsafe group if something is wrong. That way, the Dead have options for who they want to empower in order to convey the information, and we can avoid the situation where the Dead don't want to vote for the person we selected as the "person x was innocent" message.

I'm in favour of this "empower someone from this group" plan. It gives the living some information and the dead some leeway.

Originally Posted by Boro

If I were the EW, just to get the joy of seeing a completely fruitless D1 lynch, because there would be no wolf to lynch.

But it's not fruitless because the EW himself may be lynched either way.

I don't understand why what Zil said would have been a slip?? And the suddenly escalated Zil-Nerwen spat is very interesting. Doesn't make either of them look better in my book tbh.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

the Dead might not see as the most beneficial course of action to be the "messenger boys and girls" who make insecure attempts at telling the living who someone (of lesser consequence by game terms) was or is if they can for example lynch a baddie with their vote - or point to a known villain with it.

How can the dead point at anyone without the living having given them rules how to do so? I mean that would actually be useful, but I can't see a way of delivering such a message in practice... which now that I'm thinking of... something along the lines of empowering votes for known villains? But how can that be foolproof? I mean maybe there aren't any known villains or no votes for them to empower?? The dead can't be epected to abstain, because one dead wolf can mess everything up. Ideas?


disclaimer: xed with everyone after my last because I was slow and also had a half an hour phone call in the middle of typing this post... gonna catch up with everything next

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The only thing that now kind of troubles me is the way Kuru has avoided answering that question... but without any better leads I'lll stick to the idea that there was a wolf on D1 and I'm currently looking for any jackpots on D1 voting which ended in a tie - so is there anything looking like a helping hand -situation where a baddie helped another to avoid the gallows?

Hope that cleared my meaning...

Well clearly I was helping Lottie. Take it or leave it by me saying it wasn't intentional...it happened in a mess of day 1 deadline voting fury where I thought I was finally going to have some time all to myself for a little while. And it turns out to actually helping Lottie. Sort of like Gollum and the ring episode? His actions in forcibly taking the Ring, and the Ring being destroyed was merely an unintended effect by Gollum's taking the Ring.

That doesn't mean other people voting last night weren't trying to help for other reasons. Mine were unintentional.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But it's not fruitless because the EW himself may be lynched either way.

Well the EW wouldn't be lynched...we would be notified of a failed lynch and not know whether it was the GW or EW. But the EW would be essentially revealed to the GW...still then the GW wouldn't be able to challenge and take out the EW until D3 at the earliest...so there would still be time to make some wolves. Although that would be kind of the worst situation for the EW

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Thus we shouldn't take anything they say as a fact or a strict rule (X is innocent, Y is a wolf) even if we had very smart systems to make that kind of questions to them. But we should increasingly trust their evaluation of the situation as a more informed fellow-villager's (party-guest's) advice.

But exactly, how to interpret their "advice"? They don't know the roles of the living anyway, and especially early on they won't necessarily have any feasible suspicions either. So say the dead empower Samwise Gamgee who voted for Gollum. What are we to think? That the dead think Gollum is guilty? Or that they think Samwise is innocent? And what if the dead don't suspect anyone, or they don't suspect anyone who's got any votes on the living thread??

Originally Posted by Boro

Lommy made a really good and logical argument behind her vote yesterday, and I was thinking ya know, I'd hate to be turned and used as a pawn in the contest of wizards and dwarf schemes. I much prefer to be my own master.

I'm tempted to give you the benefit of doubt (because why would a baddie self-vote in such dire straits?), but this?? How exactly was my argument "really good and logical"? It was an absolutely standard "trying to be reasonable on Day1 but quite possibly failing because of lack of information" Day1 vote if you ask me. You constantly praising it is weird, and even weirder given it was against yourself. (Or maybe I just can't take a compliment. )

Originally Posted by Lalaith

However despite this I'm still feeling a bit concerned about the people who are arguing that there might have been no wolf created on Night One. Maybe I'm just a simple uncomplicated sort of girl but I maintain that it seems such a weird and risky strategy for a EW to adopt that as a theory it's exactly the sort of bone a bunch of wolves might concoct to throw to the crowd to get them off the scent. So Nerwen, Eomer, Boro, ho hum to y'all.

Yes! Another simple uncomplicated sort of girl here! It just doesn't make sense. Like sure it's an option but in my opinion not one worth dwelling on.


edit: xed with Boro 88th the Latter

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I


The only thing that now kind of troubles me is the way Kuru has avoided answering that question... but without any better leads I'lll stick to the idea that there was a wolf on D1 and I'm currently looking for any jackpots on D1 voting which ended in a tie - so is there anything looking like a helping hand -situation where a baddie helped another to avoid the gallows?

Hope that cleared my meaning...

Yep - fair 'nuff

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Well the EW wouldn't be lynched...we would be notified of a failed lynch and not know whether it was the GW or EW. But the EW would be essentially revealed to the GW...still then the GW wouldn't be able to challenge and take out the EW until D3 at the earliest...so there would still be time to make some wolves. Although that would be kind of the worst situation for the EW

Yes of course, I didn't mean the EW would die but he'd be revealed to the GW and he doesn't want that. I mean there may come a time when he doesn't care about that (which is a good thing to remember btw - that at a later point of the game the EW could prefer getting "lynched" to seeing a wolf die for example) but I doubt that would be on Day1.

eit: xed with Lalaith

[Nogrod]

Here's the D1 lynching-story squeezed into a list with minimal comments.


.xy are the minutes before the full hour the vote was cast (all the votes were cast during the last hour).

X -> Y means X voted for Y, naturally.

(idjaofh "sohgopiefh padhpiavs") is a comment or actual quote ("in quotation marks") from the person voting about her/his view of voting in general - or if not available, explaining her/his vote)


.23 Lommy -> Boro (strongly for “using the only ammo we have”)



.42 Lalaith -> Nerwen (“no vote is a cop out”)

.47 Morsul -> Lottie (“the evil side has more to lose”)


.55 Mith -> Lottie 2 (“putting money where her mouth is”)
.56 Inzil -> Nerwen 2 (was careful all the time not to commit on any view)
.57 Legate -> Boro 2 (“should be a tie?” – after a lot of to-and-fro leaning on the no-lynch side)
.58 Shasta -> Lottie 3 (“this vote sucks”)
.58 Lottie -> Boro 3 (“to hopefully break the tie” – after a strong campaign for no-lynch)
.58 Brinn -> Lottie 4 (for lynch – Lottie for advocating no-lynch)
.59 Boro -> Boro 4 (“fully intended” to vote and said no-lynch is a bad idea – then sealed it)


Some comments in a moment...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Yes, sometimes I just want to find peace and quiet and let go the earthly burdens. Nothings changed over N2 and into D2 but (and you know nothing that comes before the "but" really matters), but that doesn't mean nothing will happen in the future to change my circumstances. And that doesn't mean I want to have to vote for myself again today. Lommy made a really good and logical argument behind her vote yesterday, and I was thinking ya know, I'd hate to be turned and used as a pawn in the contest of wizards and dwarf schemes. I much prefer to be my own master.

Ok, I understand at least some of this, though I am not really entirely sure. Well, if I got you right, then that eases my thoughts about you somewhat, but I am probably going to mull over this for a while still.

It seems also really confusing to try to make some sense of things here. I have been trying to look all Day for some signs of people acting differently than yesterDay, but I am getting the feeling people are acting just more the same, it even seems more the same than usual. Which by itself is an interesting sign, by the way. Because obviously Wolves would be aware of both.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Here we seem to disagree. The Dead don't need our help, we need theirs. they may know, we definitively don't. So let us give them the initiative as they are the ones who most probably know where to look.

Ok, here I didn't want to talk about this any more, but just a reaction - the problem with the Dead is that they cannot, by definition, have initiative because they are dead. Like they can come up with nice and dandy plans on their thread, but they won't have a way of communicating them to us!

Like, for example they think that hey, there is a perfect way to win the whole game if we lynch person X, but how are they going to communicate that to us? Think of it as a encryption device. Somebody is sending us a code, we receive a code, but we need to have the decryption device, the language of the code, to understand it. And that needs to be established either beforehand, or from us to them. It can't go from them to us (except via the Visitor, which, you said yourself, might be a bit late).

Correct me if I am misinterpreting this, but it just doesn't make any sense whatsoever to me. Offering flexibility is one thing, but this is completely misleading.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

One observation from the voting yesterDay: in order to prevent a tie (and thus no lynch) in the future, please keep your actual voting posts short in the future (you can reason in a subsequent post) and refresh the thread before you post your vote!

Exactly.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I read Nerwen's summary of Morsul's posts. The only thing that keep standing out to me is that he seemed very much like an ordinary innocent villager. What the??

This just confused me - what is the "what the" refering to here? Are you shocked by Nerwen, shocked by that Morsul seems innocent to you, shocked by that he was killed if he seemed like an ordinary villager, or?

EDIT: x-ed with the double Boro and onwards

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

ithout any better leads I'lll stick to the idea that there was a wolf on D1 and I'm currently looking for any jackpots on D1 voting which ended in a tie - so is there anything looking like a helping hand -situation where a baddie helped another to avoid the gallows?

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

Pros (for the side of evil):
- EW-Lottie doesn't get found out as EW as soon.
- Strong wolf presence in the Dead Thread in the form of Boro (with 3 more future potential-wolves to spare!).
- Lottie manages to distance herself from Boro (if he gets found out as a wolf).

Cons (for the side of evil):
- Does actually mean that a wolf gets killed (but in this case Boro would be the spare one).

edit: x-posted with Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I just realised how late it is getting and I would prefer to vote soonish.

In terms of "fishy", Boro is clearly at the top, but his replies are just... really, I would have thought of a Cobbler. Like I am not sure if "fishy" in this sense qualifies as that he should get my vote.

Otherwise, I just realised from what Zil said, he may not be back anymore to offer any more clarification to his voting reasoning, the consistency of his suspicion on Nerwen and so on. In any case, I didn't think him suspicious during yesterDay and toDay there was not anything particularly standing out until his sudden exchange with Nerwen, which originated from her. Although ok, I just reread that and it was rather sudden response from him which escalated it.

Anyway, I have been also going through people's posts and would like to sort out my thoughts about everyone. Will be back in a moment with something more.

EDIT: x-ed with Eönwë

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

Interesting idea. While we're throwing out ideas that have been (I assume) percolating all Day, I would like to say that out of everyone here, you're the one who feels the most different compared to yesterDay. Also, that you would have been a great candidate to have been turned last Night, since as far as I can tell you were vaguely trusted by a majority of the village - and that killing Morsul offered you pretty good cover. With everyone's eyes on me as the major proponent of the no lynch, your involvement didn't garner any discussion at all. Whereas yesterDay you were at the front of discussion, toDay I feel like you've been trying to blend into the background more.

Now, I'm not saying you *were* turned last Night, but I am saying that if we're floating insubstantial theories, I'd like this one to be out there, too. I'd still rather vote for Zil toDay. I'm much more confident in my suspicion of him than I am in this theory about you. But I'd like to point out the vibes I'm picking up now, just to have them out there in the case that I continue to find you suspicious later on.

To summarize: I don't want to forget that on Day 2, your posts felt more cautious than they did on Day 1. I suspect you might have been turned last Night, but I have no proof, and therefore I simply want to quickly jot that down.

EDIT: xed with Legate

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm beginning to suspect Loslote, which has surprised me somewhat because I liked her posts on Day 1.

Go back to the Nerwen/Inzil spat - I had to read this 3 times (and get Cailin to explain it to me ) before I understood what the issue was. It seemed very minor to me. Yet Loslote picked up on (post #186) and repeated the term 'slip' in a non-committal way. Also, she criticises Inzil for voting Nerwen with no justification (I agree, but he's not the only one with a vapid Day 1 vote) and focusing on game mechanics (also something which many of us have done today and yesterday).

Then (post #197), it's pretty minor but there's just something about it - she returns to the attack on Inzil but seems to balance it out by 'feeling better about Nog' at the same time. 'Wouldn't mind voting for Zil today" indeed. I dunno - it's just the first time so far I've read something and thought there might be something behind it.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Are you shocked by Nerwen, shocked by that Morsul seems innocent to you, shocked by that he was killed if he seemed like an ordinary villager, or?

The last.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, semi-crazy conspiracy theory incoming: What about a Boro-wolf and EW-Lottie? In this scenario, Lottie does genuinely agree that a no-lynch is better for the side of good and decided to sacrifice Boro, who goes with it.

I think that's not semi-crazy, that's actually one of the few theories that makes sense. It just seems quite unlikely that our top lynch candidates would have been the wolf and the EW, and bold of them to play it this way. But that's one of the reasons I haven't been too keen on scrutinizing Boro and Lottie toDay - we shouldn't get fixated on this logical but rather wild scenario.

And I agree very much with Lottie about Eönwë. There's something about him that's different, and he would have been a good (but obviously also short-sighted) pick from the EW. I mean picking the villager that is the most widely trusted/ considered reasonable/productive is great if it works but not exactly sneaky. But in this case I wouldn't be surprised... which kinda sucks for Eönwë of course if it's true - imagine being such a good good guy that you're turned evil and then lynched because you were the obvious choice because you were so good?

edit: xed with Eomer

[Nogrod]

If Lottie and Boro are the EW and a wolf that was some darn daring gaming they played and worth a bow! Which – even if I think them both as capable players to pull off nice tricks I just now can’t see them have orchestrated together – especially if they have not had a chance to discuss things.

Although there is one scenario… Lottie might have looked who had been around lately and realized that all others but herself and Boro had given their votes – and then enter Shasta with his vote on her – and Lottie comes up with the brilliant idea that she votes for Boro to make a tie (knowing he wouldn’t mess with that tie but would vote for someone else). But then Brinn comes out from nowhere and votes as well – forcing Boro to the only way he could save both him and Lottie.

Nice. Possible… but not plausible, I’d say.


Of those who did not vote in the end (but participated) Nerwen is kind of a hard one to say: she has her own timezone quite afar from others and her not appearing at the DL is not unusual – she was quite vague with her attitude towards the no-lynch policy though so that + not voting might be a nice lay-low tactics.

Eomer on the other hand was strongly against lynching and at least followed his stated conviction true. And his arguments were, I think, pretty sound (which means nothing in the end as a baddie can make sense talking about abstract issues).

Sally I think just came in and went out early on the Day and that was all?


Just to cut things short, I kind of feel okay with the four first votes (Lommy, Lalaith, Morsul, Mith). They were consistent with their discussions about voting and voted for people I found myself also suspicious (well, the latter actually applies to all votes now that I look at it again! ).

Legate was maybe a little too to-and-fro on the voting issue in general, like he was watching from where the wind would blow, but then again took quite openly sides in the end and looked like trying to gain a draw – although it was a bit early to try and do that in one sense, but well...

Shasta’s late and sudden vote stands out (after just saying he doesn’t want to vote any of the vote-gainers), well, screams out (“this vote sucks”) – but maybe just because of that looks like a more innocent one?

Brinn appeared even more sneakily and out farther from nowhere than Shasta and made some very roundabout arguments for her vote as the second. She wrote a bit longer post so she might have actually X’d with some of the late votes: so no one can say for sure how knowledgeable she was of the situation when she voted – but she sure did drop from out of the blue there at the last (second last) minute.

In general Eönwe and Inzil raise my eybrows a little with their game – sadly with both I think a lot of the issues are more or less the same I have suspected them so many times before whether they have been innocents or not.


Oh, this is hard...

I had kind of forgotten how complicated making decisions in this game were.


EDIT: X'd with basically everyone after my last post.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I agree very much with Lottie about Eönwë. There's something about him that's different, and he would have been a good (but obviously also short-sighted) pick from the EW. I mean picking the villager that is the most widely trusted/ considered reasonable/productive is great if it works but not exactly sneaky. But in this case I wouldn't be surprised... which kinda sucks for Eönwë of course if it's true - imagine being such a good good guy that you're turned evil and then lynched because you were the obvious choice because you were so good?

He also kept a lower profile on Day 1 than some others, though - he didn't actually vote, I don't think, and kept out of the actual fray for the most part. I'm not absolutely convinced, but I wanted to mention it in part because I'm going to have to leave for an hour or so soon, I'm not sure I'll be back in time to do much, and if I end up lynched (which is always a possibility), I didn't want to go to the Dead Thread without ever having said something.

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Eönwë]

Just to clarify how the empowering thing would work (since there's been some discussion):

1. Let's assume we start with today's living as the options. First of all, we alphabetise the list (toDay is an even Day so it's in Z->A order). That gives us:

Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88

2. Now, if someone is selected from the first half of the names (which includes the person exactly in the middle), then the person is PREY (to use Kuru's terms), i.e., good, and if they are in the second half, they are a PREDATOR (also Kuru's term), i.e., evil. This gives us:

If the person is PREY:
Thinlómien
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Pervencia Took
Nogrod
Nerwen
Mithalwen
Loslote

If the person is a PREDATOR:
Legate of Amon Lanc
Lalaith
Inziladun
Eönwë
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Brinniel
Boromir88


3. Then, based on whether the Target (i.e. the person whose role was found out the Night before) is innocent or guilty, someone who is a known innocent (i.e. someone genuinely found out to be an innocent, or if no such person appears, a Night kill, e.g. Morsul - I assume the Dead Thread can come up with a system, but my suggestion would be to cycle through those lynched and definitively proven to be innocent) picks which of the people in the appropriate PREDATOR or PREY list is voted.

Of course, if we want to be particularly careful about the list (and possibly EW attempts at manipulation), we could, for example, after Day 4 (since this will only start on Day 3), decide to use a different ordering, e.g. Kuru's narration order (forwards one day, backwards the next), and so on.

edit: x-ed since my last.

[Nerwen]

Back. Will post when I've caught up.

[satansaloser2005]

....I need a drink. I'm home though, so there's that.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Go back to the Nerwen/Inzil spat - I had to read this 3 times (and get Cailin to explain it to me ) before I understood what the issue was. It seemed very minor to me.

Now can someone please explain it to me too. I have read it 2 times and I still didn't see Zil saying anything weird.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Of those who did not vote in the end (but participated) Nerwen is kind of a hard one to say: she has her own timezone quite afar from others and her not appearing at the DL is not unusual – she was quite vague with her attitude towards the no-lynch policy though so that + not voting might be a nice lay-low tactics.

You mean, Nerwen never votes on Day1 anyway.

Originally Posted by Lottie

He also kept a lower profile on Day 1 than some others, though - he didn't actually vote, I don't think, and kept out of the actual fray for the most part.

That could be considered fishy, but given that he loudly advocated no lynch on Day1 it's not half as shady as you make it sound.

I'd like to go to bed soon, and avoid the voing chaos this time, so I'm gonna vote soon. And please everyone, remember to keep track of the general situation before you vote, we don't want another tie. That novel you want to write to back up your vote can wait until you've voted. You don't want to crosspost with everyone, trust me.


edit: xed with the last trio

[Eönwë]

Also, just to clarify the other part, the idea was that the Target would be the non-Night-killed-person in the Dead Thread who has been there the longest and has not had their role revealed should be picked.

I say non-Night-killed because while it's an interesting idea, it seems pretty crazy to imagine the EW Night-killing one of their own, and even if they did, it seems even more unlikely that it could happen more than once (once they're down to non-replenishable wolves), and one wouldn't screw up the system enough to make much a difference.

edit: x-ed since my last.

[Thinlómien]

Eönwë -

1) good. That makes sense.

2) let's not debate this now when the dl is in an hour and a bit but rather during the first half of toMorrow.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That could be considered fishy, but given that he loudly advocated no lynch on Day1 it's not half as shady as you make it sound.

I didn't mean it to seem shady, I just meant that of the people advocating for no lynch, he was probably least likely to face scrutiny the next Day, which might have made him a more appealing person to turn. Again, all wild speculation.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Eönwë -

1) good. That makes sense.

2) let's not debate this now when the dl is in an hour and a bit but rather during the first half of toMorrow.

Yes, but for my second post what I was getting at was that for toNight, both people should vote for toDay's lynchee (so we don't have a wasted Night on that thread).

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now can someone please explain it to me too. I have read it 2 times and I still didn't see Zil saying anything weird.

Basically, I think it's the bit I bolded below:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

x/d with the Mod- so the EW and wolves might have had some benefit to going after a possible GW Morsul- except they didn't have this clarification at that time.

[Mithalwen]

I know she hasn't been posting but it maybe would be nice to get Pervinca's name right..

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I know she hasn't been posting but it maybe would be nice to get Pervinca's name right..

You're right, of course. I just copied Kuru's list.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I've read over today's posts. Brinn, Legate and Mith are offering opinions that are both trenchant and sensible and thus to me feeling non-wolfish.

Well...Kuru's "clarification" is interesting. However despite this I'm still feeling a bit concerned about the people who are arguing that there might have been no wolf created on Night One. Maybe I'm just a simple uncomplicated sort of girl but I maintain that it seems such a weird and risky strategy for a EW to adopt that as a theory it's exactly the sort of bone a bunch of wolves might concoct to throw to the crowd to get them off the scent. So Nerwen, Eomer, Boro, ho hum to y'all. Nogs is coming up with lots of theories all scattergun-like, including the no-wolf-on-N1, but that's his way, as I recall, and so I'll hold off there for a while.

Except I, for one, am not arguing it. I began by saying that I believed we could now be certain that a wolf had been created Night One, then realised we technically couldn't be [I]certain[I]. And I believe you'll find this is so of other people you list. The only one I recall actually promoting the idea is Boro- who has been generally weird, sure.

Edit: x'd with many.

[Thinlómien]

Innocent
Legate and Mithalwen - seem like their normal innocent selves, haven't said anything particularly eyebrow-raising.
Eomer - he rubs me the wrong way with everything he says, so it is as it should be. The way he commented on the Nerwen-Inzil spat sounded very genuine and innocent to me too.

Idk
Boro and Lottie - yesterDay was weird. I would like to wait at least one more Day and see. But Boro is certainly fishier than Lottie and seems to have a death wish, so out of the two I'd vote for him again.
Lalaith - she's hard to read.
Nogrod - aka the advocate of the dead I initially thought his tone was off but it's been getting better. I'm watching him but wouldn't like to lynch him yet.
Brinniel and Shasta and Sally - they are all under my radar atm, will need to pay more attention toMorrow.
Pervencia - where is she (again)?

Suspicious
Nerwen and Zil - I don't like the way the spat escalated, it actually made me think of those times two wolves thought it would be "logical" to suspect each other and went for it and nobody who was actually innocent thought it was logical.
Eönwë - it's maybe not the fairest or best of arguments, but he'd have been a very logical wolf convert pick. Has been markedly guarded toDay and continues to talk about the dead thread which is useful (I really appreciate someone trying to work out a system, I do!) but also conveninetly something else than finding wolves/EW, which is especially bad this late.

edit: xed with all

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

You're right, of course. I just copied Kuru's list.

Oh.

Have I been getting her name wrong?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Basically, I think it's the bit I bolded below:

But, they didn't??? Unless they asked privately?? And it would be far more of a stretch to assume they did than that they didn't, if you ask me. I would have jumped to the same conclusion as Zil did. *side-eyes Nerwen (and Lottie a bit too)*


edit: xed with Kuru and afraid I've been on the misspell train too!

[Mithalwen]

It is listed as Pervencia.

[Kuruharan]

Ooops.

I'll fix that.