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#201 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#202 | |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,359
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In reality, all that would have taken to make me suspicious was overacting the cobbler role, but if that is the case I would wonder why no one considered the connection I was trying to establish with Legate. I was only intending to be cobblerish only when talking to him, not in regards to any other issues. ![]()
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#203 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Wow, with what's been going on in the last few posts, that changes things a bit. Finally something really interesting has happened!
So I'm going to go ahead and post my incomplete list of suspicions and do the rest in a bit, otherwise it's all going to be 100% out of date by the time I finish writing. Sally - Had one post including well-reasoned analysis, but has posted very little aside from that. She's said she'll be posting later with a suspicions list, which is good. On the basis of her posts so far I'm not very concerned about her. Shasta - I'm on the fence about Shasta. I've seen an innocent Shasta and a guilty Shasta before, but in this game I've been unable to draw a conclusion so far about which he's acting most like. I really need to see more posts from him. Morsul- Not particularly worried about Morsul, although he doesn't seem to have been posting a lot, and that makes him much harder to analyse. Nerwen- Going by gut feelings about her tone, and having seen a few more posts from her, my concerns have lessened a bit. I'm not getting especially suspicious vibes from her, and her arguments are mostly hanging together. (Then again, if she were guilty my impression is that she'd probably make coherent arguments too.) But looking through her posts toDay one by one, I see there hasn't been a huge amount of content (proviso: this has not exactly been Super Content Day for anyone). She addresses a number of points about my posts in reasonable depth, and considers McCaber, but there's not a lot of discussion about other people to consider, and that makes her a lot harder to judge. She said she'd be back later with more thoughts, though. G55 - One of the most active players. Posted a gut suspicions list and voted for Legate. Overall, I was suspicious of her early on Day 1, but thought as the Day progressed that her gut suspicions looked genuine, so I decided not to vote for her. ToDay, overall, she looked a bit erratic at times, most notably in post #185, and seemed a bit worked up. And with G55's latest post, that knocks most previous views of her out of the water. At first glance I'm actually inclined to believe her. But even if she's an ordo as claimed, it doesn't necessarily follow that she's correct and that Legate is a wolf. I'm going to think this over. Quote:
![]() Of course my post was calculating. I wanted more information from G55. How would she respond to it? And her response was useful for me, both in her tone and in her mention of previous occasions. In particular, Legate had been saying that G55's conduct was strange in her last few posts before his vote for her. And really, post #185 looked a little odd, as if G55 was saying she was the Cobbler. She ended up not addressing that point in her reply to me. And now with G55's big statement...G55 playing a pretend-Seer and pretend-Cobbler so far actually does fit pretty well with things so far. Boro thought he saw something either good or bad going on with me, G55 and Legate. Maybe it was fake Seer-hints from G55 implicating Legate that he saw, and me coincidentally backing off from G55 around then? ToDay when I brought up what Boro had said, G55 answered a little oddly, saying that Boro hadn't been sure whether it was good or bad. So...I think I'll believe G55 toDay. But that doesn't mean I'll vote for Legate just like that. I'm going to go now to look through Legate's posts to see if I can see the dynamic that G55 claims is there. Edit: cross-posted with all of this page so far. |
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#204 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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But now..would a wolf try this? The Cobbler might, but why? Reasons for these?
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#205 | ||
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,359
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Quote:
Quote:
![]() Edit: xed with Zil
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#206 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
EDIT: X'd since Coppermirror at #203.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#207 | |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,359
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Quote:
Of course it could be - in which case all my theories collapse and you can lynch me all you want toMorrow. But how likely? Once again, standing in the wolves' shoes, if you have a choice between equally appealing dinner, you would avoid the one that is the most likely to be protected by the Ranger. Unless you're pretty desperate to kill that person, so that you would go for them even at great risk of wasting a kill and giving the Ranger an innocent. I agree, it could be a coincidence. But the wolves are smarter than that. And, realistically, what's the likelihood? EDIT: xed with Nerwen
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#208 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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Votes:
Morsul --> McCaber (1) Lommy --> G55 (1) Legate --> G55 (2) G55 --> Legate (1) Yet to vote: sally Nerwen Shasta CM Eonwe Inzil McCaber
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#209 |
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,359
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On behalf of Cabbie, I would say that the timing wasn't really up to him, in the same way that it wasn't up to Morsul when he had to vote early. It's one thing if you post continuously during the Day and pick a convenient moment to switch sides, and if you just didn't have computer access most of the Day and come back to a different situation.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#210 | |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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Quote:
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#211 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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Ok. Know what? I can't see a wolf doing this. A Cobbler might, but I don't see a motive for it. A Cobbler would be happy to take one for the wolves. What the heck.
++Legate
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#212 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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Quote:
EDIT: x'd with Inzil
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
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#213 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
EDIT:X'd since G55.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#214 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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I may regret that vote, but that's an awfully convoluted defense from an evil G55. If you're a wolf, hats off.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#215 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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Now I look like a bandwagoner, but he genuinely looks the most suspicious.
++Legate If we're wrong, at least we'll have some solid leads on where to go toMorrow. (Also, highlight is really fun to type. I don't know why I never noticed that before.)
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
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#216 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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I've finished looking through the G55 and Legate posts until now, and as a result I'm pretty suspicious of Legate. I intend to vote for him, but I won't place it yet.
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#217 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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My post was about half done when I got dragged away to the grocery store. I'll finish it when I get home (posting this from my phone) but as of right now I'm suspicious of Eonwe and, if the current trend is that G55 is showing signs of cobblery, then I'm even more suspicious.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#218 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Lots of Legate voting going on. It's really almost unanimous, actually, which raises my hackles a bit.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#219 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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I keep dozing off. Best vote now just in case.
++Legate Of the two in my top category, I'm much more suspicious of Legate. I currently think Cop and McCaber are more cobbler material, so I'd rather stick to what I think is real guilt. I wouldn't protest to a Steve lynch, I suppose, but I think Legate is a bigger threat (and would also give us more information than a Steve lynch would at this stage). I may hang around. I may end up unconscious. I guess we'll see. EDIT: x'd with two Shastas
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#220 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Quote:
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#221 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
EDIT:X'd with 2 Sallys.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#222 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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Well, G55 was likely going to be my vote toDay, and since I couldn't see her being a wolf after what she said (she's opened herself wide to the Seer in any case), I thought it was worth a try.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#223 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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We have half an hour till DL, right? I'm still finishing my post.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 12-26-2012 at 09:02 PM. Reason: X'ed with Inzil |
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#224 | ||||||||||
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Day 2
Cop at #117. I have no issues with the fact that she apparently wrote up a post overNight; as I recall, she's done that before. I have a slight issue with this - Quote:
I do feel she has a point about McCaber here - Quote:
McCaber at #118. Typically concise post, tags Sally and Eonwe together as possible packmates and raises a question about G55 - Quote:
Eonwe at #120 stands out as being the most jumpy person thus far - Quote:
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G55 at #122 - the infamous "nightkill" post. While I tend to be all for whatever analysis a player cares to make, I have to agree with Inzil that I don't see much point in speculating about the target of a nightkill that didn't happen. I believe Inzil said something about unhelpful helpfulness... Oh dear, I'm agreeing with Inzil again. ![]() Sally at #125 makes her first serious post of the game. She appears to suspect Legate, Inzil, Cop, and possibly Eonwe, if I'm reading her post correctly. I'd be interested in knowing where she's at on these four now. Morsul at #128 - Quote:
Clarification here - Quote:
Quote:
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Legate at #156 explains his vote for Boro and suspicion of Cop. I'm fine with the explanation for Boro, but his suspicion of Cop falls flat for reasons I think I've already mentioned (how Cop types up posts during Night no matter her role). Cop at #157 - yes, I crossed with Inzil when I voted. Thinks about a Legate/Eonwe pack, finds possibility unlikely. I'm going to cut this post off here so people at least get a chance to read it before DL. I'll finish it tomorrow if I'm alive.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#225 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Just and observation.
Copper and Legate seem to be doing to the lion's share of work. I'm willing to bet one of them is a Wlf trying to look helpful. I promise to be more active should I survive until Friday that's my day off...
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#226 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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So... your reasoning for voting for Legate is... "worth a shot"? Duly noted.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#227 |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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DL is in an hour.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#228 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -
"Roger, wolf tower."
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 12-26-2012 at 09:05 PM. Reason: X'ed with Modlote. Thanks, dear. |
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#229 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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A list of suspicions towards the end of the Day. I think these are a good idea for people to do. Of course, my suspicions are likely to change a lot depending on the outcome of toDay's voting.
Not especially suspicious: Morsul Sally Vaguely suspicious: Nerwen Shasta Reasonably suspicious: Thinlomien Eonwe Inzil McCaber Really suspicious: Legate Either an ordo or a very elaborate Cobbler: G55. I don't believe it's possible for her to be a wolf, based on what we found out to Day. I see there have been a few posts since I wrote this, so I'll look at those before placing my vote. |
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#230 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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If G55 is the cobbler 159 seems to say "Nthing to see here mve along move along" Now of course the cobbler doesn't know the wolves but 159 seems to protect Copper
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#231 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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I was talking more about the way G55 seemed to be specifically, deliberately talking to Legate, actually.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#232 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Quote:
x'ed shasta
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#233 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
EDIT:X'd since Morsul at #230.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#234 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Quote:
I take it you're talking about the "I get you *nods*I get you"(paraphrasing.) Seems sort of a bantery intr to the rest of the post. x'ed nerwen
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#235 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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Then why would Cobbler55 throw Legwolf under the bus now?
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#236 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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Quote:
And...now I really have to vote. ++Legate Edit: cross-posted since my last post. |
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#237 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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I haven't really gotten that far in my in-depth read, Inzil, I'm still on page 5. Half a mo' -
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#238 | ||
Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,359
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Quote:
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Anyways, my suspicions: I'm pretty calm about Sally, Shasta and Morsul. Steve and Cabbie are complete enigmas. Cop doesn't strike me as very wolfish, but then other people bring up good points about her, which I don't necessarily agree to wholeheartedly, but there is reason behind them. In other words, I'm torn. I've had so many changes of heart about Zil these two Days that I'm still a bit dizzy; I have a very conflicted opinion. Nerwen seems like her regular self. Thing is, she's darn good at looking like her typical self as a wolf. So when I have time I will be taking a closer look at her interactions with others moreso than the contents of her posts. And Lommy - I'm quite suspicious of her, but somehow the idea of a Lommy-Legate pack doesn't seem exactly fitting based on some of their interactions toDay. I'll be taking a closer look at this one too. And, of course, I suspect Legate heavily of being a wolf. ![]() EDIT: xed since 229
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#239 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Okay, got it, you're talking about G55 at #196 where she votes Legate. Hmm. In that case I might buy that G55 was pretending to be a Cobbler hinting at someone she thought was a wolf. I'll need to read the rest, though.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 12-26-2012 at 09:26 PM. Reason: X'ed with G55 |
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#240 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 344
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If G55's story is true: she was trying to look like the Seer on Day 1, so that the wolves would target her. But since the Ranger made a save, she changed her tactics and tried to look like a Cobbler and cozy up to Legate. She did talk about her suspicions lessening, and that post replying to Legate looked like her sending a "yep, I'm right here with you" signal - that she's the Cobbler who's ID'd a wolf. But then, she got frustrated and realised her scheme wasn't working, and revealed it all.
Edit: cross-posted since my last post. |
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