TIG XCIV– WHere the Stars Are Strange (Game thread)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And you all probably spotted the gaping hole in my logic the same time I did - if this was the case, why isn't Borowolf dead?

Well, that was what I was trying to say up there back - and I think a few others have stated it as well. The fact that no one died with Rikae that whatever she said or thought she suspected, and those who killed him weren't the same persons.

Now this might initially make both Zil and Boro look better as they were Rikae's stated suspicions, but unlike someone said just a moment ago, that isn't a big credit for either of them because Rikae would have been a bit foolish if she had said whom she is hunting as that is actually making her gift void and null. And I don't think anyone here will claim Rikae is a fool of a player. On the contrary. (It's possible she double-bluffed a round too much though).

Another question: why is everybody working based on the assumption that the wolves are thinking about the hunter 24/7? I thought it was the seer they were preoccupied with...

The modus operandi of werewolves is, first the seer, secondly the seer, thirdly the seer etc. but it looks like Rikae made herself as hunter the talkingpoint toDay.

But as some have already speculated, it might be also possible the wolves thought her as the seer. Maybe they thought her parading as the hunter?

Okay, I'm not sure this line of inquiry leads very far as it seems we come back time and time again to the same issues: Boro or Zil, or someone willing to paint them as suspicious?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now this might initially make both Zil and Boro look better as they were Rikae's stated suspicions, but unlike someone said just a moment ago, that isn't a big credit for either of them because Rikae would have been a bit foolish if she had said whom she is hunting as that is actually making her gift void and null.

It doesn't mean that it wouldn't be interpreted that way by wolves who just want to get the hunter out of the way early on, does it?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Eönwë suddenly jumped to my suspicion list with his last post. If anything, *that* sounds like an attempt to frame up a person. I can fairly understand what Nog had said and what Eönwë criticises as innocent, but Eönwë seems to be overzealously painting it completely black. And it really seems to me like an attempt to cast suspicion on somebody.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Legate more or less said what I meant to say. I'm really not comfortable with Eonwe's jump on Nog. I'm not sure about Nog myself, but the way Eonwe is painting him black without pausing to consider the alternative is alarming.

Wait a second, isn't making stronger suspicions/accusations a good thing? If nothing else it will hopefully get Nog to answer some things about his vote and late-posting yesterday. I've had the impression Nog's playing carefully so far (not sure if I'd call it sneaky, but sneaky/careful are virtually the same in meaning).

I'm not following Eonwe's point here:

Here he tried to stick it all together, and fails miserably. The two points are not the same at all. In addition, it's only here that he goes for the "but maybe an innocent Bom could do this too" angle. Throughout the rest of the post, there's no indication of anything else, no doubt or deviation from his topic- it's just a list of reasons to kill Bom.

"Fails miserably" is more strong language, and not sure what you're saying by Nog trying to "stick it all together,"...perhaps clarification?

Anyway, I have to wonder what a wolf-Eonwe would gain by this strong language in going after Nogrod? Also, I think there is a point to be made with Nog stressing "half-serious" continually. It makes sense with my feelings yesterday Nog is treading carefully. I'm sure an innocent Nog would have reservations about voting for Bom based solely on Bom's unconventional behavior.

But, the thing is, Nog's trying to make his Bom-suspicions look like there is some objective consideration,but at the same time his posts look like a pre-determined decision to vote Bom and tack on the reasons to justify the vote. Eh, that may be unclear...But this could get wordy...

Unsure innocents always has to go back through posts to either convince themselves about their suspicions being right, or to see they might have judged wrongly. But with Nog yesterday, it's almost like trying to convince us his vote was being thoughtfully considered, when really it was a "here's why Bom's suspicious" case with some "half-serious" and "it could just be innocent Bom being Bom" added in to make it look reasonably considered.

It was Bom's self-vote to motivate Nog to go back and re-consider voting Bom...right? But you hardly have to go back through Bom's posts to convince yourself. I mean, it's Bom. We are familar with his style. What were you expecting to get out of his posts? If your reasons for voting Bom are because Bom's playing unconventionally and there doesn't appear to be other options you're comfortable voting for, fine, just come out and say so. Saying Bom is being mysterious/not giving anything away/not providing helpful input is like saying the sky is blue. It's not like anyone needs to go back through Bom's posts to confirm/deny reasons for voting him. Bom's playing randomly and playing like Bom.

You can't on one hand lynch someone because you're not comfortable with the other possibilities and here is Bom playing like Bom. Yet on the other hand go through a post-by-post explanation and keep tacking on the suspicions to justify the vote. To do so is just overkill. Surprise, surprise, Bom said something controversial/suspicious/crazy/random.

Edit: crossed with everyone after Greenie's vote.

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish

Shasta - I think he seemed genuine and brazen in the innocent way yesterDay, also kind of too bold to be a wolf. No update toDay yet so I'm still keeping my eyes open.

Nate - her way of thinking seems more innocent than not, but I'm far from sure. I don't think I can read her yet, but she doesn't worry me right now.

Greenie - seems generally to be spotting and thinking things the way an innocent would. A bit like Pom - doesn't concern me now but might need reconsideration later. (Out of the two I'd bet more on Greenie's innocence though.)

Nogrod - ok I'm being honest here: I trust him. Don't ask me why, I was asking myself, and I don't really have any reasons for this other than gut-feeling and that we have agreed about many things. Maybe I should watch myself, but I simply can't see Nogrod as anyone I should be worried about right now.


In the middle

Sally - hasn't been around enough. I got vaguely bad vibes of her yesterDay, but toDay I've been forgetting she plays. I hope she posts a lot while I sleep (soon) so I can judge her better still toDay.

Pitch - honestly, I'm quite confused with his new, slightly aggressive style, and don't know what to make of it. Also, I find myself disagreeing with a lot of his points in this game, which is something that always makes me cautious.

Lottie - one of my top suspects from yesterDay, but now I have hard time remembering what was so bad about her except for the jump on Pitch's sarcasm, and if that's all, then... *shrugs* I'm looking forward to see more of her posting toDay!

Zil - if we had a cobbler, that's be him. I'm not going to repeat what I said yesterDay about his weird italics and use of opposites etc, but just when I started thinking he's maybe normal after all, he happily admits he's weird but calls it normal, or something of the like. Furthermore, he randomly continues the long-dead Legate-Zil thing for no reason I can perceive. It's just weird.

Legate - a little more wishy-washy than usual, and doesn't strike me as especially trustworthy in this game. Then again, there's not really anything against him either, and at times I can relate with him. A difficult case (although one I haven't been thinking too much about, to be honest).


Suspiciousish

Boro - when he speaks, a lot of it sounds like he's lying. That sounds pretty harsh, but I can't phrase it better. The whole Rikae-scheme related to him confuses me a lot, though. Also if you are looking for possible people to be saved by yesterDay's bandwagons, he's pretty high on that list.

Galadriel55 - my top suspect at the moment. It's not only her weird jump on me yesterDay or on Nog toDay, but mostly two details which scream wolf (which you all should know if you've read my posts but let me repeat). 1. When she looks back, she refers to whether she said she suspected someone, not whether she suspected them in her head. I can see no reason an innocent would play with this mindset. 2. She was confident enough that she'd be alive toDay that she spent a considerable amount of time last Night writing a post. A rhetorical question: who again are they who generally don't die during the Night?

Steve - yesterDay, I didn't see where all the suspicion against him s coming from. ToDay, I can quite see it. What the heck was that attack against Nogrod? Although it might still be too clumsy to be fabricated, but especially combined with his wishy-washy list, I'm not too impressed. Not my top suspect, but making himself look a lot worse lately.


edit: xed with everybody since my last

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

"Fails miserably" is more strong language, and not sure what you're saying by Nog trying to "stick it all together,"...perhaps clarification?

Ok, maybe "Fails miserably" is bit strong, and maybe I overreacted.

"Stick it all together" is referring to his post. I thought I'd explained quite clearly what I meant by that that ( ), but basically I meant the fact that he tries to give two completely unrelated angles about why to lynch him. The self-vote and then suspicious behaviour too. Basically the rest of what I said (and what you're saying in the rest of your post).

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Zil

Care to elaborate?

See my list (if you already didn't).

Public note to self (previously titled "not to self" due to a typo )
Nogrod looks slightly worse.
Boro looks slightly better.
Eönwë looks the same.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, maybe "Fails miserably" is bit strong, and maybe I overreacted.

"Stick it all together" is referring to his post. I thought I'd explained quite clearly what I meant by that that ( ), but basically I meant the fact that he tries to give two completely unrelated angles about why to lynch him. The self-vote and then suspicious behaviour too. Basically the rest of what I said (and what you're saying in the rest of your post).

Ok, gotcha now.

The "lynch Bom because there aren't other people I'm comfortable with voting for today" angle

And the...

"Lynch Bom because he's acting suspiciously/Bom-ish" angle.

[Eönwë]

Or rather, while the two are related, he argues them in an unrelated way, which just seems to turn the post into a list of reasons to kill Bom. It's like he set out to kill Bom and then just put down all the bad things he could think of, which is not the way an innocent does things, which is to find something suspicious, and then build on that.

edit: x-ed with Lommy.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ok, gotcha now.

The "lynch Bom because there aren't other people I'm comfortable with voting for today" angle

And the...

"Lynch Bom because he's acting suspiciously/Bom-ish" angle.

I meant the "lynch Bom because he self-voted and we just spent ages ranting over self-votes and now he's done it" angle

and the suspicious angle.

[Thinlómien]

I'm going to sleep. I'll be back before the DL to read, post a little and vote. When you vote, please consider what I said about G55. She's made already two moves no innocent would make. Good night and see you!

[Pitchwife]

Boro - of course it's not remotely like a seer lynch, and the outcome of lynching Bom wasn't any worse than any D1 where we don't catch a wolf. But after Lommy, Legate and Nog had gone to some length exhorting us all to make meaningful and accountable votes, I find it, shall we say ironic or hypocritical?, that all three of them ended up making a vote of which Legate said himself that it wouldn't tell us anything. (I'm willing to excuse Lommy, as she was under threat of lynch herself and voting to save herself, but Legate and Nog not so much.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

Pitchwife - At the same time under my radar and somehow - off focus? That's an odd word, but he seems kind of confused and sharp at the same time.

Bingo. I'm being a bit distracted by RL affairs and having difficulty focussing on the game as I'd like to... but thanks for the "sharp".

Eönwë's analysis of evil!Nogrod as the orchestrator of the Bomwagon would be a lot more convincing if he hadn't voted Bom himself, dropping all his prior suspicions; pointing the finger at Nog now and saying "He made me do it!" is a bit rich, isn't it? I was rather suspicious of Nog myself early in the Day, but this actually makes me doubt it.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And what seems most likely to me is that either one of his fellows was getting attacked, or those being suspected were playing suspiciously enough for him to want to 'save them for later' when it would be harder to get an easy lynch. So I'm not sure how suspicious this makes Lommy.

You do realize that Lommy is not the only one who was getting votes at the time the Bomwagon took off, don't you?

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Next, Pitch himself.
Considering that early yesterDay he seemed simply careful about not getting too deeply involved anywhere, and that he started seeming more and more evil as the Day progressed

You don't mean more and more evil as I suspected you more and more?

Originally Posted by Nog

Now this might initially make both Zil and Boro look better as they were Rikae's stated suspicions, but unlike someone said just a moment ago, that isn't a big credit for either of them because Rikae would have been a bit foolish if she had said whom she is hunting as that is actually making her gift void and null.

I don't think so. The benefit of a logical hunter is not only that no innocents get killed if the hunter dies, but also that if the hunter dies alone and we can figure out who she hunted, we have a known innocent. That in mind, I'd actually expect a hunter of Rikae's format to leave a cleverly disguised hint about her target that we can figure out with hindsight.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I thought I had explained this already, but as it keeps popping up every once in a while in more and less fiery postings, I try to make it clear once more (we should rename this game into TIG XCIV "Where the Repetition is the Rule"), maybe with some added ideas based on Boro's few "new questions".

Yes, I was mad at Bom's self-vote, especially after all the rant there had been about the signifigance of making a reasoned vote.

Yes, I entertained the idea and was unsure about what to do; whether to stick with the principle (those who do not play should be lynched so that people would know it happens and thus would not do it, or stayed out of games they have no intention to play) or whether there was chances to hit a wolf.

Yes, I did more or less talk myself out of it even if I wasn't sure on how strong grounds the suspicions I had on some people were.

Yes, after Shasta started pressing with it - and it kind of opened out as a real possibility when some others also voiced their possible interest in doing it - I started rethinking it as a real option. I mean it's stupid to vote for a non-player if you're the only one to do that.

But then you forget what I aready told earlier - and you can check it if you wish.

I wished to have a discussion as to whom to vote, in the end there, like 15 minutes before the DL, got a phone-call from my colleague, and when it was done, like 10 minutes to the DL, people had already started voting for Bom and there was no reasonable scenario left but to join (no ties and thus double lynches). Picking up enough votes to lynch someone else at that moment was basically impossible.

So it was not that I especially wished to see Bom dead and somehow sneakily orchestrated it so that the others did the job for me (if I was that good, I'd win every WW-game singlehandedly whatever side I was on ), but well, it went that way this time.

But I'm not apologizing either. Like someone said, better an innocent than a gifted on D1, and I'd continue, better someone you can only do quesswork (throw a dice) than someone you can try to read and actually play with on D1.

Originally Posted by Boro

Unsure innocents always has to go back through posts to either convince themselves about their suspicions being right, or to see they might have judged wrongly. But with Nog yesterday, it's almost like trying to convince us his vote was being thoughtfully considered, when really it was a "here's why Bom's suspicious" case with some "half-serious" and "it could just be innocent Bom being Bom" added in to make it look reasonably considered.

It was Bom's self-vote to motivate Nog to go back and re-consider voting Bom...right? But you hardly have to go back through Bom's posts to convince yourself. I mean, it's Bom. We are familar with his style. What were you expecting to get out of his posts? If your reasons for voting Bom are because Bom's playing unconventionally and there doesn't appear to be other options you're comfortable voting for, fine, just come out and say so. Saying Bom is being mysterious/not giving anything away/not providing helpful input is like saying the sky is blue. It's not like anyone needs to go back through Bom's posts to confirm/deny reasons for voting him. Bom's playing randomly and playing like Bom.

You can't on one hand lynch someone because you're not comfortable with the other possibilities and here is Bom playing like Bom. Yet on the other hand go through a post-by-post explanation and keep tacking on the suspicions to justify the vote. To do so is just overkill. Surprise, surprise, Bom said something controversial/suspicious/crazy/random.

And they say I'm verbiose!

I'm not sure I followed every part of this, but I think I got the gist of it.

No. I was not proposing to lynch Bom because he is Bom. That would be stupid. I was suggesting it because of how he played, especially the self-vote. Especially because of the discussion on the very issue earlier that Day.

But then you Boro seem to fall into the fallacy of hindsight or that of wolvery (both meaning "knowing things"). You can choose which one...

Yes, I wished to go back through his posts, but unlike a wolf or a person with hidnsight on his innocence (as we have now), I didn't know if he was a wolf or innocent. So I tried to see if there was anything that would point to him being a wolf and using that self-vote tactics as a cover.

I mean you who complain about Bom's lynch seem to forget that he could have been a wolf. Or you knew already he wasn't and then as wolves rant on us others who didn't know from supposed "moral-highground". *coughPitchieCough*

So I see nothing wrong in both saying "I'm annoyed of the way he plays so much I could lynch him just for principle's sake" and trying to find out whether there is something lupine in his posts.

Blah.

X'd with a host of posts...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Based on the last posts and things, the Wolves are Zil, Steve, then possibly somebody else - either Boro (? there are times when he is still acting too "cool and composed") or then some hidden Wolves, like Nog or Pitch or... Also still thinking about G55 (she did not post much toDay, right? Would like to hear more).

Now a list.

Evil:

Steve - what I said earlier.

Zil - I concur with Lommy's "cobbler" note. That's basically the feeling I get from the very beginning. He does not behave logically. He's not the only one, Boro suffered from the same syndrome at least yesterDay very strongly. However, lately some of his posts...

THIS has really evil tone to it:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I see Legate has come out against Eönwë now, and Greenie has responded by voting for him.

If you open a post by such a sentence, I can't imagine more aggressive way of pointing somebody out and yelling at the village: "Lynch'em all!!!"

I don't believe in cobblers, and Zil might very well get my vote toDay.

G55 - Lommy sums her up nicely, though my suspicion against her is the other way around: the two "what innocent won't do" things don't seem that much of a issue to me, maybe the former a bit more, but her voting and some things noted earlier in her posting worry me more. I want to see more from her, though.

(slowly getting to orange-ish zone, I need to reevaluate G55 because maybe she belongs here too, but maybe not)

Lommy - still not 100% sure. Funny idea occured to me with this Boro thing, in case the two of them were Wolves, Lommy might be just bringing attention to him back when it has slightly dropped, when she feels safer to point that out. You know, sort of this thing like "my packmate is most likely not getting lynched today, I will accuse him a bit so that later, when one of us is lynched, people say 'hey but she was the only one who accused him on that Day when nobody else did, she wouldn't do that...'" But my suspicion against her is basically of this sort, I don't have any "hard" evidence.

Boro - likewise. There is still some of his "smoothness" in him, for example like this:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Wait a second, isn't making stronger suspicions/accusations a good thing? If nothing else it will hopefully get Nog to answer some things about his vote and late-posting yesterday. I've had the impression Nog's playing carefully so far (not sure if I'd call it sneaky, but sneaky/careful are virtually the same in meaning).

That sounds sort of, how to say it, well, still too "polished" for Boro. More in the "excuse me, gentlemen, my humblest opinion is that your coat might have a bit of stain on it" style instead of "you filthy brat of Morgoth, look how messy you are!"

And Lommy has a point that he shouldn't be left off the hook so easily, but he's better than yesterDay still, and some of his ideas and thoughts he says don't sound Wolvish! (mental note to self) Like this, in the very same post:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Saying Bom is being mysterious/not giving anything away/not providing helpful input is like saying the sky is blue. It's not like anyone needs to go back through Bom's posts to confirm/deny reasons for voting him. Bom's playing randomly and playing like Bom.

You can't on one hand lynch someone because you're not comfortable with the other possibilities and here is Bom playing like Bom. Yet on the other hand go through a post-by-post explanation and keep tacking on the suspicions to justify the vote. To do so is just overkill. Surprise, surprise, Bom said something controversial/suspicious/crazy/random.

Which is a good point and also a good point against Nog.

The orange zone switches gradually into grey...

Pitch - UNDER. THE. BLOODY. RADAR.

Nogrod - some points raised about him by other people (Steve and now Boro sort of in reevaluating Steve's points) make me wary, but then again, there's a lot in his behavior which seems okay. I'm not sure about his accusation of G55 and Steve, not saying that it's fabricated, but... yeah, in fact, maybe that's what I thought it might be. More like if even one of them might not be his friend and it'd be all orchestrated or somesuch.

Greenie - I have little clue about her, as often, she might be evil, but she does not give any especially evil vibes straightaway.

Lottie - where is she?

Almost-white-ish-zone:

Sally. Where is she?

Pomegranate - reasonable, sensible (mostly), no problem.

Shasta - where is he?

The zones are all very, very, very orientational. Many people are either-or-this-or-that, so it is no set order or anything. Very rough division.

EDIT: x-ed with Steve and Nog

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nog

Or you knew already he wasn't and then as wolves rant on us others who didn't know from supposed "moral-highground". *coughPitchieCough*

Try to make up your mind whether I'm being "wise with hindsight", as you said earlier, or had wolvish knowledge in advance, will you? And if you think the latter, then say it instead of just throwing insinuating coughs my way.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Eönwë's analysis of evil!Nogrod as the orchestrator of the Bomwagon would be a lot more convincing if he hadn't voted Bom himself, dropping all his prior suspicions; pointing the finger at Nog now and saying "He made me do it!" is a bit rich, isn't it? I was rather suspicious of Nog myself early in the Day, but this actually makes me doubt it.

If you remember, I was only one vote behind at the time, so I couldn't afford to choose anyone other than Lommy or Bom.

And I see, back to your usual suspecting then unsuspecting Nog ways...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You do realize that Lommy is not the only one who was getting votes at the time the Bomwagon took off, don't you?

She was leading though.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You don't mean more and more evil as I suspected you more and more?

Nope. I'm going to go through your posts and see why I got that feeling.

eidt: x-ed with Pitch.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchie

I don't think so. The benefit of a logical hunter is not only that no innocents get killed if the hunter dies, but also that if the hunter dies alone and we can figure out who she hunted, we have a known innocent. That in mind, I'd actually expect a hunter of Rikae's format to leave a cleverly disguised hint about her target that we can figure out with hindsight.

If you really think that, can you then tell us our "known innocent"?

I mean yes, I can say Boro could be innocent, or then Zil could be innocent, or maybe Steve because she said she will "keep an eye on him", or... Which one that ingenius hint gives us to figure out?

Really. A bold hunter might try to lure the wolves to her (and there's no question Rikae couldn't be that), but would she then tell them, or even hint at, whom she is really hunting?

Originally Posted by Pitch

Try to make up your mind whether I'm being "wise with hindsight", as you said earlier, or had wolvish knowledge in advance, will you?

I'd tell everyone if I only knew... But I'm trying, trust me, I'm trying...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Sally. Where is she?

Shasta - where is he?

The DL is horrible for us, alas, or at least for me. It's the time I need to be leaving for work, and since I normally am just getting home around now (well, an hour before when I'm lucky, but there's housework to do when I get home, and today there are strange people in my kitchen looking at my appliances), attempting to do all my Werewolfing in two or three short hours isn't going to lead to successful Sallying. I'm sorry (no, really, I am) that my performance is disappointing.

(How is Sallying a verb but Werewolfing isn't?!)

Anyway, I'm here, and attempting to read through things, though I will admit that I'm having trouble keeping up. I'm hoping that, in a lovely twist, my delicious beverage will help with that rather than dulling my senses as one would expect.


Or, as they say in Limerick....

Well, Legate, what do you think?
That I can write posts in a blink?
And with these weird verbs
I may light some herbs
Or maybe I'll just have a drink


EDIT: x'd since the post I quoted

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Well, Legate, what do you think?
That I can write posts in a blink?
And with this weird vocab
I may require rehab
Or maybe I'll just have a drink

But Sally, what are you doing?
Together some words in rhyme gluing
When argue in full
And your own weight pull
Discussing's what you should be doing.

Why waste your time writing rhymes
'Stead of punishing those for their crimes
That creep up at night
On the good place a blight
Like the creature gollum who climbs?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

If you remember, I was only one vote behind at the time, so I couldn't afford to choose anyone other than Lommy or Bom.

Really? There's always chance, and many other people to vote. Also, you might have waited. For that matter, I just recalled that there was this weird thing with you saying about hour and ten minutes (or something) before DL "I need to vote in half an hour" and then you voted in about 50 minutes from then when it seemed that the Bomwaggon was rolling. Yes, you wanted to save yourself, but this was rather calculated. Care to say something about that?

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Well, Legate, what do you think?
That I can write posts in a blink?
And with these weird verbs
I may light some herbs
Or maybe I'll just have a drink

Well, at least you are here! (not going to rhyme at this hour...)

EDIT: x-ed with another nicely rhyming person, who however is not in my opinion in the position to say so either...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Based on the last posts and things, the Wolves are Zil, Steve, then possibly somebody else - either Boro (? there are times when he is still acting too "cool and composed") or then some hidden Wolves, like Nog or Pitch or... Also still thinking about G55 (she did not post much toDay, right? Would like to hear more).

Hmm, Legate. Having me, Steve, and Nog in the same pack would indicate some pretty daring wolf-on-wolf, wouldn't it?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Zil - I concur with Lommy's "cobbler" note. That's basically the feeling I get from the very beginning. He does not behave logically. He's not the only one, Boro suffered from the same syndrome at least yesterDay very strongly. However, lately some of his posts...

THIS has really evil tone to it:



If you open a post by such a sentence, I can't imagine more aggressive way of pointing somebody out and yelling at the village: "Lynch'em all!!!"

That's what you're using to justify suspecting me? That's a real reach, my friend, even if it is me saying so. I was beginning to relax about you, too.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Lommy - still not 100% sure. Funny idea occured to me with this Boro thing, in case the two of them were Wolves, Lommy might be just bringing attention to him back when it has slightly dropped, when she feels safer to point that out. You know, sort of this thing like "my packmate is most likely not getting lynched today, I will accuse him a bit so that later, when one of us is lynched, people say 'hey but she was the only one who accused him on that Day when nobody else did, she wouldn't do that...'" But my suspicion against her is basically of this sort, I don't have any "hard" evidence.

Yet you apparently trust Lommy enough to concur with her about me.

Unless something changes, I could well vote Legate toDay. I still am wary of Steve though. And now, to a lesser extent, Lommy.

x/d with Steve and Legate

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Really? There's always chance, and many other people to vote. Also, you might have waited. For that matter, I just recalled that there was this weird thing with you saying about hour and ten minutes (or something) before DL "I need to vote in half an hour" and then you voted in about 50 minutes from then when it seemed that the Bomwaggon was rolling. Yes, you wanted to save yourself, but this was rather calculated. Care to say something about that?

Yeah, I misjudged. I thought my lesson was cancelled, but it turned out I had one, and then I just about managed to get in my vote in the gap between that and the next one.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Hmm, Legate. Having me, Steve, and Nog in the same pack would indicate some pretty daring wolf-on-wolf, wouldn't it?

That would actually be hilarious if it were the case.

[Galadriel55]

I'm back but I can only read in parts... so far I'm up to #180, and commenting as I go... I'll be ack with more...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Sure, but I sill don't like the fact you were so sure about your survival that you wrote that overNight.

I knew I wouldn't have time toDay - either take the risk or keep silent.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think maybe we can leave this be for now and see what happens the next Night.

Good idea.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Is it a totally alien concept to you G55 that people can change their minds, especially if they are given reasons for it? (I know there are people who stick to their beliefs whatever the case, or even if reality proves them wrong time after time, but that is a discussion on politics and religion I'm not willing to engage here.)

No, Nog, but I think you would also jump on it if a person who repeatedly defended a point started attacking it after some support from others.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if someone felt Rikae was a threath enough to kill her it might have been Zil, Boro, or looking at how G55 reacts to things, then her (although she should have packmates to talk sense to her not to react like that).

I'm shocked at how sure you sound with that "should". Don't be so confident, cause I don't.

Personally, I think Rikae was killed because she left a very confusing trace. And she wasn't likely to be lynched.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Now, Rikae.

An interesting detail is where she says

(underlining mine). Did someone read that as a hunter hint?

Now that's sharp!

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If you really think that, can you then tell us our "known innocent"?

I mean yes, I can say Boro could be innocent, or then Zil could be innocent, or maybe Steve because she said she will "keep an eye on him", or... Which one that ingenius hint gives us to figure out?

My personal guess would be that the first of your Rupert Murdoch scenarios (love you for that btw) is true and it's Boro, or I don't see why she would have said that thing about wabbits and coyotes at all.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Really. A bold hunter might try to lure the wolves to her (and there's no question Rikae couldn't be that), but would she then tell them, or even hint at, whom she is really hunting?

Tell - of course not, hint - all I can say is there've been precedences (IIRC G55 did it just a few games ago). It's rare, and even rarer that the village picks up the hint, but not as unheard of as you paint it here.

Anyway, it's bedtime, but I should be back an hour or two before DL. See you.

[Nogrod]

The bedtime approaches.

I'll make a list of sorts before I go, but meanwhile I'd wish to hear from Eönwë and Boro to tell us which is their situation: the thoughtless overconfidence of a hindsight, or wolvery?

If you know someone is (or was) innocent, you can say someone who went through all possibilities with him was doing an "overkill" (someone used that term I think). But when you don't know the alignment beforehand, that's exactly what you have to do, check all the possibilities, unless you are a wolf when you of course have no need to do it.


Heh, I know I said this already, but as I have a feeling - well, I think I can say I know - many people skip long posts, I decided to make a short one stating one of my main points against that silly speculation. (read more from #212)


X'd with a few

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Hmm, Legate. Having me, Steve, and Nog in the same pack would indicate some pretty daring wolf-on-wolf, wouldn't it?

That's of course theoretical. Although anything is possible, right.

That's what you're using to justify suspecting me? That's a real reach, my friend, even if it is me saying so. I was beginning to relax about you, too.

Among other, yes. I simply find your posting really fishy lately (this time, fishy = suspicious).

Yet you apparently trust Lommy enough to concur with her about me.

It isn't about trusting. She might even be a Wolf, or you can even be packmates for all I care, but the point is that the point makes sense. I mean, don't tell me you didn't ever see a Wolf saying something that actually was based on reality. I am sure you know better than to think that if somebody has different opinion than you, it does not mean he is a Wolf, and if somebody has the same opinion as you, it does not mean he is innocent.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yeah, I misjudged. I thought my lesson was cancelled, but it turned out I had one, and then I just about managed to get in my vote in the gap between that and the next one.

Fair enough.

EDIT: also xed with a few

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And I'm glad you also spotted Nog's sneaky post as the origin of the Bom bandwaggon, which is what I'm going to focus on now.

First, eeeeeeeeeeeevil. Second, when I saw Legate comment on this just a couple posts afterwards, he jumped at least one category of 'suspicion' - meaning, from 'unsure', he breezed straight up to 'feeling fairly good about' in one post.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Sally - Something worries me, but again, I'll need to look more closely.

Pitchwife - I suspect there's something dark behind his previously spotless veneer.

Legate of Amon Lanc - I've started getting the feeling that he's evil too. There's something about the way he posts... At first I thought he was a strong innocent, but now I suspect darker intentions.

Vaguely indicating suspicion but not pursuing it at all? Lommy, you know how you were worried that I was trying to do that with my Pitch-poke joke post? Yeaaaaaaaah. Oh, and the flowery language he uses to express his suspicion of Pitch and Legate? Not happy with that at all.

Lottie - Ah, Lottie, I'm not sure about her. At first I thought her evil, but looking back on her posts she seems pretty standard Lottie.

Sooo, you tried an easy Day 1 lynch and jumped back when it became apparent that it wasn't working? Don't worry. Lots of wolves do it.

Lommy - While she speaks sense, there was something off about her early posts yesterDay, and she did have the most votes before the Bom-waggon.

This sounds excessively defensive to me - "and she did have the most votes..." especially.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm going to sleep. I'll be back before the DL to read, post a little and vote. When you vote, please consider what I said about G55. She's made already two moves no innocent would make. Good night and see you!

While I do agree about the points against her, I also think that a pack with both G55 and Steve would be highly unlikely, and since I suspect Steve a lot more...

Now. I've got to run to class, but I'll be back in two hours or so (hopefully).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

No, Nog, but I think you would also jump on it if a person who repeatedly defended a point started attacking it after some support from others.

If I were a wolf, I would be very much annoyed (you know this forum censures stronger expressions) if someone who backed me turned around to suspect me. Sure. As innocent I'd be annoyed as well, but that wouldn't make me concentrating my energy during the Night into a post trying to paint that person black just because he came to other thoughts... rather I'd ask her/him why that happened and tried to explain then the things the other person says made her/him suspect me.

And well, you only have my word for it, but I didn't change my mind on you because that idea got support. But think of this: if my modus operandi (my working rule) would have been trying to get you lynched in principle, or going with the flow and suspecting only those who others suspect, surely I wouldn't have defended you in the first place?

I did change my mind because of the way you suddenly jumped on Lommy (there was a train emerging there) - and especially the way you did it (you underlined it was the substance of her posts but never said anything about it yourself).

Originally Posted by G55

I'm shocked at how sure you sound with that "should". Don't be so confident, cause I don't.

So you confess?

Okay. A bad joke, and it's probably a misunderstanding there. I tried to say that if you were a wolf, your packmates would have told you not to do something as over the board as your rant you posted early into the Day, because it would only make you look more suspicious. But as you did post it... well maybe you don't have packmates to guide you?

Jesus it's late again. I'm into a list of sorts... (darn vacations... )

[Eönwë]

Ok, as for the others that I haven't talked much about.

Just been through Boro's posts. YesterDay he seemed a bit too quiet and sort of just floating around, but there's nothing evil there. Today he seems good. He hasn't said too much yet, but at least he's pushing a bit (everyone seems too agreeable in this game).

I'm thinking Lottie actually looks pretty good. The fact that she hasn't posted much probably helps, but what she has posted looks innocent so far.

I'm not sure about G55 any more. Some of her early posts don't look great, and I'm not sure I like the idea of her writing something at Night (i.e. assuming survival), but I suppose her attack on Nog is not something a wolf would do. Unless, of course, she was just hoping it would end up ignored because of its boldness, which might also be a good distancing tactic actually. Hm...

Pitch is harder. You know what? I think he might not be evil at all. I may have misjudged. He seems pretty observant and good-natured in most of his posts, but I do have a few issues with him. If we assume he's not feigning ignorance (which would be a pretty unsportsmanlike thing to do, and so I highly doubt that that is the case), then he seems pretty innocent.

Greenie I still can't read at all, but she's sharp.

Sally has just not posted enough for me to be able to tell anything about her. Most of it seems a mix of silly and serious, but where one ends the other starts it's hard to tell.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This sounds excessively defensive to me - "and she did have the most votes..." especially.

In what way? I'm linking her to the Bom-waggon.

[Pomegranate]

I'm back again, and will have to vote soon. Eonwe's jump on my suspicion of Nog definitely did raise eyebrows. I feel like there's too many people too much into lynching him, though - Greenie obviously, but Lottie, Legate, Pitch and somewhat Lommy as well. Lottie's last post feels very bad for me for some reason.

I think Nogrod and Legate answered to my suspicions fairly well.

I agree that G55's Nog-hate was a bit weird, but I have myself written posts during the night, if I have known that I don't have time during the day. Especially if I feel I haven't done anything too big to make the wolves interested in myself. And given - again - that it's G55 we're talking about, strong wordings don't alarm me that much.

I shall do a bit of reading on Lottie and Legate before I vote, most probably for either of them. I don't think there's quite enough reason to vote for Nog and I also think Eonwe, while being somewhat fishy, is fishy enough for two votes this early in the game. Broadening the view a bit.

And since I've almost gone through everyone, a bit more about the rest. Boro has a vague feeling of goodness in him today, I think it was there also yesterday, it was just not normal behaviour of his. Same goes with Inzil - people that I can't make myself to suspect without way too much time in my hands and energy to go through their posts over and over again. Greenie I just can't read at all, same goes with Shasta so far.

x/ed with Eonwe's both

[Pomegranate]

First of all, I could read my posts through more carefully before posting them.

I don't think there's quite enough reason to vote for Nog and I also think Eonwe, while being somewhat fishy, is fishy enough for two votes this early in the game.

is obviously missing a 'not' in the last clause.

But yeah. I think, to the extent that I have energy to investigate, Legate's still the most suspicious. For the reasons I mentioned earlier (though he did answer pretty well, you can never answer well enough in this game, right? Because there's no knowing for sure) and for jumping on Eonwe. Sure enough, Eonwe might be a wolf, but in case he's innocent, that's a horrible bandwaggon there. I really do hope you guys who are still around look into at least Legate, Eonwe and Lommy (who is suspicious but has posted so much I can't make myself go through her posts - good technique for a wolf, exhausting all the hunters), for I am in no ways sure that Legate would the bad one and Eonwe the good one. I have a strong vibe that one of them is worth lynching.

++Legate

Good night, everyone!

edit. an awesome but really confusing mis-spelling corrected

[Eönwë]

So, toDay, I realised that I had to options. Either to blend in, and accept what I knew was wrong in the hope that I would survive but running the risk of getting lynched (I will be around when I wake up for about half an hour after this toDay and that's it), or to fight against what I knew was wrong, leading me to get killed at Night.

I fear I made the wrong decision, but it is too late now. And now I know that I will get Night-killed if I don't ask the Ranger for help.

Sorry village, but I am your Seer.

I doubt that there was any way Nogrod was going to let me survive after that post- even if he gets taken down because of it, since it's clear that I lead to him. There's no way they can risk me getting another dream.

So yeah, here're the facts.

Nogrod is a wolf, a northern spy, a vile plotter, etc.

I also got an ordo, but I don't think it's good to name xem because then xe will just get killed.






So, obviously, toDay I've just been provoking people to see their reactions.


My opinion now:

Evil-
Nog
Legate

Maybe evil-
Lommy

Quite good-
Boro
G55
Lottie
Pom
Zil
Shasta




Kill Nogrod, investigate, don't trust anyone.

That is all village, goodnight for now, and I'll answer as much as I can when I get back.

[Nogrod]

13 people of which 4 are wolves, 1 seer, 1 ranger, 1 Acolyte (whatever it means, but seems to kill at Nights) and 6 ordinary innocents.

If we get it wrong toDay, and the wolves kill one innocent - and the Acolyte yet another one, the worst case scenario for toMorrow would be: 10 people, of which 4 wolves, 5 innocents and the Acolyte. So at best 6-4 to us, at worst 5-5.

So let's make it good toDay.


In the order of appearance in the Mod-list

Boromir88: I'm suspecting him still even if he has been acting more Boroesque toDay. All this Rikae-stuff makes me doubt though. My reason says Rikae did not hunt him (why would she, after that open hinting?), but did Borowolf count on it being bluff (or was he afraid she was the seer?) or was it some others who tried to capitalise on the interpretation that we would then suspect Boro on her death (quite schemy and daring wolves then)? The way he revealed his wolfPOV, or hindsight POV, with Eönwë's suspicions on me he was only too happy to continue makes me wonder as well. If innocent he should have realised there was no way of knowing whether Bom was a wolf or an innocent beforehand on D1.

Sally: A few limericks (thanks Sally, they make me leer) and obviously a lot of RL constraints. But still I'd like to hear more from her. Hard to say anything, and if this continues, I'm starting to get worried about her.

Galadriel55: I think I have talked enough of her. YesterDay's sudden Lommy-vote was bad and her start of the Day attack on me was at least as bad. I do suspect her.

Shasta: Where are you? I liked his contributions yesterDay and well, there has been nothing toDay thus far, so looking forwards to hear more from him.

Steve: I don't know what to say. He clearly had determination there (and yes, jumping on the points Pomegranate had already made). Unless he answers to my question to him (and Boro), I'll think him very much a suspect.

Pomegranate: I'm more or less agreeing with the majority that she looks both sharp and well, although I suspected her strong language in her first posts on my Bom-lynch -issue (or how she handled Legate: I think I've never seen Legate as explanational than there ). Seeing that she voted Legate (whom I tend to trust somewhat) sure makes me wonder what did it mean when she said he answered her questions "fairly well" - and yet merited a vote. Also she talks of two votes for Eönwë which is either incorrect or then I have missed something; or that we should look at Legate, Eönwë (sic!) and Lommy while the person voting Eönwë is Greenie! (I'm really thinking I'm missing something here)

A Little Green: I'm somewhat astonished I'm not suspecting her yet, but she looks pretty reasonable - and I do agree with her on many points this time around. So no flags, as yet.

Pitchwife: I don't like a lot of the things he does and If I have time, I'm going to look at him more closely tomorrow after I wake up. There's an edge, and kind of vileness to his posting I do not recognize.

Lottie: Her absence has clearly washed away any thoughts I might have had of her off from my brain toDay. The last one looks decent though, but it might be because she suspects Steve heavily there and I do share the feeling. She's also someone I should take a closer look.

Inziladun: Well the enigma then. And here's why. There has been a lot of talk that he was weird yesterDay, and many explanations, and further questions, and the very same explanations going around and around with him. But they are beside the point. The point is, what Rikae asked from him when I was shy to do it that bluntly (even if I tried to ask him about it), namely: "Now Inzil, come out and claim what you're trying to claim so we can all see how implausible it really is!" A wolf backing into "I'm a bit cryptic, yeah, but things are going on now, don't ask me" (paraphrased, of course), or the Acolyte? If the Acolyte kills people I think we have the right to ask him about it... (that he kills people, we didn't know yesterDay, and that was one of the main reasons I didn't ask him straight - or bring that idea forth in the first place)

Lommy!: I think she acts like her normal self - which is to say quite little. She talks sense and I have nothing against her thus far - nor any reasons to trust her over the careful reasonableness -point.

Legate of Amon Lanc: We seem to agree on many things and that makes me feel good with him, but I'm also quite aware that a cunning wolf he could be would possibly try the same. But still, I have no reasons to suspect him and as long as we seem to be on the same side on certain issues, which are the only things I can rely at this point of the game, I'm actually pretty happy with it.


EDIT: X'd with Eönwë... WHAT? (and I thought I had earned some sleep...)

[Inziladun]

That's good enough for me, Eönwë. I don't see what you as a Spy would have to gain by deception, it's easy enough to tell if you're on the level. And, as I've been so politely reminded, we have no Cobbler this time around.

++Nogrod

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now that brings something interesting.

I was just about to post how Eönwë's last long post just screams "I am making up stuff, echoing general opinions on people in the village and such". (I was just about to go to sleep after that, too. I think I might still do that, but I not sure if it will be such a calm sleep after all, anticipating mess in the morning.)

Now... what to make out of this revelation. I am not 100% convinced, because of above reasons, about Eönwë's genuineness (that's not a word, is it? What should it be? Genuinity? Sounds even worse). I can well imagine him being a hasty Wolf and in the view of being lynched soon, he wants to save his skin and/or drag the real Seer out.

That said!!! Just occured to me. Steve, if you ARE real Seer, you SHOULD tell us the name of your Ordo. Because either you get night-killed or the ordo does, but the Ranger can protect you first Night, and the Ordo after that. So you SHOULD tell us.

And that by the way further fortifies my belief in Eönwë's fakeness. Really.

I am not convinced in any way that Nogrod is innocent, but I am rather convinced, now thinking about it more and more, that Eönwë is just fake. A rather not very well done Wolfy Seer-revelation-attempt, since he does not know whom he should reveal as ordo, because he does not know whether to name a packmate or not...

Hmm. It is of course still possible he is not lying. But I really don't like it.

Also it is interesting for him to suddenly have me on top of his suspect list right after I got a vote, while I don't believe he had suspected me so much before.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog and Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That said!!! Just occured to me. Steve, if you ARE real Seer, you SHOULD tell us the name of your Ordo. Because either you get night-killed or the ordo does, but the Ranger can protect you first Night, and the Ordo after that. So you SHOULD tell us.

No, he ought to wait until toMorrow and leave the Spies guessing. And the fact that you are pushing otherwise makes me suspect you all the more.

[Galadriel55]

More thoughts about Rikae: although she might have given hints and hunted someone she suspected, it is also possible that she did not want anyone to know her true intentions. If the wolves killed her thinking more about the way discussion would be steered after her death than possible giftedness, this is a possibility. While a Hunter can pose as a Seer, s/he can also hide xyr true thoughts and make the hunt more of a surprise, which would baffle the wolves.


And now I've made it through 10 more posts... yes, my reading will be that broken... only snatches... (and if anyone replied to my previous post I have no idea, since I'm reading in order, so please be patient with me. I'll get to this before I go to bed.)

Pom at #180 - I like your line of reasoning. Solid. Backable.

[QUOTE=A Little Green;667570]A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?[QUOTE]

A logical Hunter could. That way, if no one is killed with them, we know an innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now it is also quite possible - and maybe even probable - that being the crafty player she was, she was not hunting any of those she suspected aloud.

I think it's quite possible - see above (and I wrote that before I read your post).

Originally Posted by Nog

And we'll probably never know whom she picked.

*AArrggh*

Sadly, yes. There's too many possibilities.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For first kills, the "little to no trail kill" seems to be more popular these days. However, Rikae isn't one. She was involved in majority of the days action, and had some fairly strongly stated opinions.

She's not a no-trail kill, she's a too-many-to-follow-trail kill, in my opinion. It works just as well as the no-trace, maybe even better for the wolves because people argue about which trail should be followed.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So, obviously, toDay I've just been provoking people to see their reactions.

Provoking? Where and whom, please? I must have missed that. You did not seem very much trying to provoke reactions to me...

I mean, somebody (not me, I am now going to sleep! - but I suggest people in general could do that if we want to try to figure out if Steve is lying or not) should check his toDay's discussion with Nogrod, whether it makes sense... like, trying to look at it in the light of as if Steve was the Seer knowing from the beginning of this Day (or the previous one?) that Nog was a Wolf.

Eönwë, did you dream about Nog on first or second Night, huh?

Gaps and holes in the presentation...

Originally Posted by Inziladun

That's good enough for me, Eönwë. I don't see what you as a Spy would have to gain by deception, it's easy enough to tell if you're on the level. And, as I've been so politely reminded, we have no Cobbler this time around.

++Nogrod

Add this to the list of things that makes me raise my eyebrows on Zil so high that I'm probably brushing the ceiling. Complete, unquestioned, immediate trust to such a *weird* person (sorry, Eönwë, meaning the style, of course)
with such a *weird* (= one which has some strange gap in it, the not naming the ordo thing???) revelation?

Once again: Why not to name the ordo??????????

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Nogrod]

Eönwë: why didn't you vote for me if you claim you're the seer and "know" I'm a "northern spy"...

I know why.

You wish to reserve your vote into some later stage if your bluff is revealed and you need it for your self-preservation...

I thought it was odd G55 and you came after me with such fervour and determination (and Boro parrotting you). So I was right. You think you have that nice numbers that even if a ploy is revealed toDay there are enough confusion around that you win nicely even if this scheme of yours backfires.

Heh, I can see Boro's signature behind this... a bit distracted, not his sharp self... right.


EDIT: X'd with a lot - also Eönwë's vote I see... so you feel secure enough?
EDIT2: No it was not Eönwë, but Zil... the Acolyte is ready and willing, right?