WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[A Little Green]

I'm back! (Will be able to contribute a bit earlier in the Day toMorrow if I'm still around.)

Originally Posted by Nog

Firstly (well the latest thought), I'm a bit worried about Greenie (news!). Without being able to really read and delve into this toDay I'm feeling more or less anguished while thinking I need to vote in 45 minutes, not knowing where to look for or where to concentrate my effort, while Greenie seems to have ample time to make detailed and plausible "case" for her vote even if she - according to hr - only came online a while ago and has already left. I know she's bright and sharp (thence not a troll! ) but it seems a bit too confident what becomes to how she used her time here toDay - the wolves, well the Wizards, know how to use their time unlike us.

I'm always calmer than you anyway. Incidentally, by the time I posted my first post yesterDay, I had already read the thread and picked out the quotes I felt the need to comment on.

And much as I hate to return the favour, Nog, I do agree with those who find your vote post very fishy. Almost to the point of being too fishy, as Lottie points out:

Originally Posted by Lottie

You know what? This actually makes sense as cobbler behavior, assuming he thought you, Nerwen, were a wolf. With you as one of the bandwagon options, he ties two others (Pom's and Cabbie's), and leaves your options open (to save a packmate, bus one, whatever you wanted to do).

Even without the Nerwen scheme (which is neat, I admit), Nog's vote could be seen as cobblerish; creating a tie, drawing suspicion on himself, attempting to save a suspected wolfowitz? Could also be a careless Nogzard, or simply a Nogzard unsure of the tally and of who have voted; he didn't necessarily know what the tally was. Or did he? I don't remember and don't have the energy to check.

Originally Posted by Morsul

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.

Someone (I believe it was Lottie) alread pointed this out - an innocent Cab? Since when did you know that?

Originally Posted by Morsul

McCaber, "Cab"- -my logic was thin but stronger than Cabs exageration of Kaths suspicion. very suspicious. But I think probably innocent if the votes in his wagon include wizards

Wait, what? He's probably innocent if wizards voted for him, and yet you suspect Lottie is a wizard because she voted for a wizard?

Originally Posted by Gil

Looking at Pom's reaction to when Cab voted the same feels like she paniced at that, almost weirdly. I honestly want to look a Cop now. Here is my theory:

Pom was trying to be a sneaky wizer and gave a vote for Cop, thinking that vote will have nothing to come of it and evade suspicion on Pom and Cop being Wizers. Then Cab voted for Cop. Pom paniced, fearing that if more people vote for WizerCop(keeping the hooliganwizers off the streets har har), Cop will be lynched.

This is an interesting theory but as Cop herself pointed out, she was suspected by quite a few others too so voting her at that point would have been quite risky and Pom, I believe, would have known that.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.

I think that is possible (which might have something to do with the fact that I still find McCaber somewhat suspicious). At any rate, I find that likelier than Cop being her packmate. It is of course possible that we are vastly overinterpretating that comment of Pom's and wasting our time analyzing it..

Originally Posted by McCaber

If there was an effort by the wizards to save Pom, it most likely took the form of a more vicious attack against another target. Volo was the only person who actively defended Pom, and everyone else shunted their rage to me or on CM.

True; and I'm not quite sure whether that makes Volo look better or worse.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Kath: No vote. Only posted banter. Some might try to read into it, but I don't think there's really anything to read into. But the question is...where did she go?

This is Kath we're talking about. I'm surprised she showed up on Day 1 at all!


EDIT: x-ed with Ozzy

[A Little Green]

Right now I feel the worst about Morsul, Nog, and Cab. I doubt all three are evil, though. Morsul and Cab would be a weird pair, as would Cab and Nog. And I have a nagging feeling that we might well be dealing with a wolf pack of, say, Brinn, Volo and Ozban.

[Brinniel]

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

X-ed with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

Originally Posted by me

And I have a nagging feeling that we might well be dealing with a wolf pack of, say, Brinn, Volo and Ozban.

[Volo]

I've relicked Day1 without having time to read what has been said toDay, thus also trying to keep a cleaner impression on yesterDay's dynamics.

General chronological observation:
Cop #52 "There's more of us than any can count." This doesn't feel entirely genuinely said. Numbers feel like an advantage against the Wizers.

Speaking of advantage: Cheers to the Insomniac and to those who spotted Pom (no thanks to me there...)!

Ner #57 brings attention to Cap for the first time. Nothing incriminating, just laying pressure to a new area.

Originally Posted by Rikae

The only thing more useless than banter is recap of banter. I've never played with Copper before, but I have played with many a wolf (or wizard) who made long, detailed, organized posts with little content. I have a bad feeling about it.

Rik #66 Suspects Cap with what feels to me like more conviction than the suspicions raised before that. The outcome of this post strengthens the series of Cop suspicions and leads to the votes.
Rik repeats her strong suspicion in #93.

Ner, meanwhile stays ambigous in #68.

Eventually Rik #109 diminishes her suspicion on Cop, but the damage is done. Strategic affecting of opinions to lead to a possible lynch? Genuine, or maybe preparing a trap? Anyhow, these posts feel most influential of yesterDay, on second glance. Something here smells.



I had gathered other impressions but unfortunately today has been really busy and somewhat stressing. At the moment I'm hosting a couple of friends after work. I'll try to return to the game a few hours before the end of the Day.

[A Little Green]

In all seriousness, though, I'm not sure what to think of Ozban's analysis of Morsul. While I agree with pretty much every point he makes, he seems to make the points with an assumption that Morsul is evil. It's as if he has decided the outcome already before doing the analysis. Then again, I've seen innocents get fixated in that way too, so I don't know.


EDIT: x-ed with Volo

[Brinniel]

Considering I was able to stick around longer, I was hoping to see the thread more active by now. But I will have to vote very soon.

Looks like we won't be hearing anymore from Oz. Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. Morsul does have some posts that look off, but then again it's not necessarily off behavior for Morsul. Morsul can make an easy vote for a baddie, but I can just as easily see an innocent being suspicious of him. Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

[Inziladun]

I still get confused, but we're in Night 2 now, right?

So anyway, looking at yesterNight's voting:

Cop--> Boro (1)
Morsul--> Kath (1)
Brinn--> Nerwen (1)
Gil--> Nerwen (2)
Cab--> Cop (1)
Pom--> Cop (2)
Rikae--> Cab (1)
Greenie--> Cab (2)
Me--> Pom (1)
Ozban--> Cab (3)
Lottie--> Pom (2)
Boro--> Cop (3)
Volo--> Nerwen (3)
Sally--> Pom (3)
Shasta--> Pom (4)
Nog --> Cab (4)

Gil's vote looks like a potential easy bandwagon attempt.

Pom's vote makes it unlikely Cop is a Wizard.

Rikae's vote for Cab looks fairly clean.

Greenie's vote could be seen as bandwaggonish, but she reasoned it pretty well.

Ozban put Cab in the lead, and his vote looks worse than the first two.

Lottie followed me, which to me makes her an unlikely fellow of Pom's. There was just no reason I can see that she would have done that as a mate.

Boro's vote for Cop tied him with Cab. The rules state the first person to get the highest number of votes is lynched. If Boro
is a Wizard, he must have counted on someone helping him there.

Volo went for Nerwen, tying her with Cab and Cop. What I said about Boro applies, except that this to me indicates that Boro and Volo aren't likely to both be Wizards, assuming both knew the rule about ties.

Sally put Pom at three also, which gave us a four-way tie, with Cab the lynchee at that point.

Shasta put Pom in the lead, which looks pretty solid for him.

Nog put in a late vote for Cab, tying him with Pom. Could have been a last ditch effort to save Pom, maybe hoping for someone else to follow him.

Just based on the votes, Nog looks the lost likely to have tried to save Pom, followed by Boro, and lastly, Volo.

x/d with all since #202

[Nogrod]

A nice 12-hour workday is over and I need to make groceries and make some very-late dinner... but just a fast eyeing of the thread reveals some people seem to be questioning my vote late on D1 - and even voting for me based on it.

So just trying ot make a few things clear before that behaviour becomes too far-spread.

Those who have played with me know well enough that when a wolf I have no problem throwing a mate under a bus if it makes me look good in the early stages of the game (I know the seers oftentimes want to check me so that kind of an "heroics" might just postpone the seer for looking at me too early).

So why on earth - if I were a packmate of Pom - did I do what I did? That would have been soo unnecessary an attempt (the possibility of it going down the drain aka. Pom getting lynched anyway would have been high indeed while risking myself) while the other option (making sure Pom gets lynched and I get the glory for it) would have been so much more smoother. I would have been a very stupid wolf

But as I didn't know whether Pom was a wolf or not - or whether anyone else is or is not - I had no other chance but to work on my own suspicions and hunches. Like we all trolls must.

So I was pretty much okay seeing Pom lynched as I suspected her somewhat (well you rarely are "okay" with a lynch on D1 when everything is such a mess), and as the first one to have gathered the four votes at that point she would be on the chopping block anyway, whatever I would vote unless someone came forwards at the last moment... and that's what I wanted to see, that if there would be a prince Charming to come for her rescue at the last moment. That could have been a jackpot (not that I trusted it would happen, but with my vote I created a chance for it).

Okay.

More later as I get home and get something to eat.

[McCaber]

Ok, I need to leave for class soon which means I need to make my voting choice for toNight now. And I have to say, from here Rikae's sudden turn after Pom's and my votes looks rather fishy. She did her best to turn everyone's attention away from Pom and onto me, despite that our votes and reasoning were basically identical (and on line with what Rikae herself had posted just ahead of that). To me, that behavior reads like being able to make points against a fellow wizard while getting an innocent lynched at the same time. Maybe I'm too close to this to see really objectively on it, but as I'm short on time and nothing has really jumped out at me toNight as wizard-sign,

++ Rikae

I probably won't be back before DL.

[Gil-Galad]

I feel like I need to point this out and ask for others to keep an eye on it, but something is bugging me about Brin and Nerwe. Just that Brin voted Nerwe, then when I voted the same I got the most attention. I had to explain my reasoning later to defend myself since I couldn't say "Its a secret test" at first which would ultimately defeat the secret part of the test. Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.

Could be that it bugs me more then it should, but past players know that my gut usually has a good chance of being on to something and getting me killed in the end.

Xed with Cab

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So I was pretty much okay seeing Pom lynched as I suspected her somewhat (well you rarely are "okay" with a lynch on D1 when everything is such a mess), and as the first one to have gathered the four votes at that point she would be on the chopping block anyway, whatever I would vote unless someone came forwards at the last moment... and that's what I wanted to see, that if there would be a prince Charming to come for her rescue at the last moment. That could have been a jackpot (not that I trusted it would happen, but with my vote I created a chance for it).

This sounds like typical Nog, which makes me think a bit better of him.

Originally Posted by Gil

Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.

I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.

[Brinniel]

I'm still wary of Oz, but I'd like to hear more from him.

So my vote goes to:

++Volo

From my earlier post:

Volo: Voted for Nerwen. He says he's unsure about Nerwen and that McCaber is on the "naughty side," then later decides Nerwen's most suspicious (over McCaber and Pom) without a reason to explain why. While he might have tied her, it really didn't look like anyone else would vote her at this point. This could be a strategy for a baddie to not make a throwaway vote, but at the same time, avoid participating in a lynch that could be likely to occur.

That's all from me for toDay. The good news is I'll probably be around for the deadline toMorrow.

[Coppermirror]

Okay, here's the first part of my opinions on people. I'll split this up because it's likely to take some time.

Bane: He commented ominously on Gil, and pointed out to Greenie the incongruity of Pom's vote with what she said, thinking she hadn't considered it. Later on, Pom is his top suspect by far, but he decides to abstain from voting on account of newbieness. He seems pretty sensible, but the lack of voting concerns me.

Shasta: He voted Pom, making that the deciding vote. That was important. However, I don't think it says anything at all for whether Shasta is innocent. From either side, that was a good move to make. He didn't know the game had started until late, so can't blame him for lack of posting.

Sally: Is looking so innocent that I'm really worried that she's a wizard fooling us all. Went for Pom after her slip, and thought that a wizard Gil wouldn't have been laying things on so thick on Day 1.

Nog: I agree that he's the most likely to have attempted to save Pom, and that the chances are from his behaviour that if so, he's far more likely to be a cobbler than a wizard. But if - if - he's the cobbler, is it really a good idea to lynch him toDay instead of trying for a wizzard?

There were some non-committal comments, but he did express some suspicions. And, reading through his comments, I can imagine them all potentially coming from an innocent. As for the vote, I understand that someone might want to create a tie and see what happens, and on the face of it it's not terrible behaviour, but that time if someone had swooped in to try to save Pom, it could easily have lead to another person's lynching. So...I'm on the fence about Nog and hope to come to a conclusion soon. Still thinking about it.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Volo

++Nerwen
This is a bandwagon. McCaber and Pom are less suspicious and they're up to 3 votes, so this is to counter that. Also, lots of talk, little reasoning.

This? This is still the most disconcerting thing I have seen anyone say all game (and it's a game that includes Morsul, so that's saying something ). Intentionally starting a bandwagon and admitting to doing so is just never going to sit right with me. Especially given that Pom was a wizard, this looks like an attempt to save a packmate that simply didn't work.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.

Gil-Galad, "Gil"- - His vote on Nerwen is flimsy at best and the whole Red Shirt defense... I've used that to good effect as both an ordo and wolf but to push it as far as this hmmm.... Watching you

First of all, an excellent point on Gil, good sir. There's playing the victim and then there's standing outside the window with a salt shaker and a violin, acting like a sad old lady so the little piggies will let you come in and eat them. Gil really seems to be doing the latter to me. Of course it leads to some hilarious mental images, though the clothing in question would then be more of a light-ish red....

However....I'm sorry, but how do you know McCaber is innocent again? I'll feel like quite an idiot if I just did that thing where I ask a question I shouldn't ask, but this seems horribly out of place to me (and I believe Lottie's already mentioned it anyway, so it's not like no one's noticed). There are only two ways you can know he's innocent: Either you're the seer or you're a wizard. I like to think you'd be more cunning as a seer, though this definitely lacks finesse regardless of which is your role. However, a wizard would be more able to take risks (having guild members to carry on and all that), so I'm leaning that way.

Originally Posted by McCaber

If there was an effort by the wizards to save Pom, it most likely took the form of a more vicious attack against another target. Volo was the only person who actively defended Pom, and everyone else shunted their rage to me or on CM.

A fair point as well. As noted, Volo went overboard and overstated on trying to prevent a Pom (and McCaber) lynch. Suspicious indeed.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way- I don't think anyone else has pointed this out-
here Pom speaks of Cop as a male, which unless I'm very much mistaken is incorrect. That argues against their being packmates (though not conclusively).

Not necessarily. I'm still not sure if Captain of Despair is male or female. Then again, that's because Mac bussed him/her right away.....

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But that's not the real problem- it's that Nog both speaks of the lynch as already decided: "So it's Pom now (first with as many votes)" and of what "any further votes" could tell us. A real brain-twister, that post is.

Another interesting point. It seemed like an attempt at fishing for votes, although there weren't many voters left at that point (and as stated, two of them were Nerwen and Kath, so there was very little hope they'd show up). Nog doesn't seem that dangerous to me at the moment, however, and I really do need to keep my brain focused on my own observations, lest I be swayed into voting someone I didn't previously think wise.


A list in a moment.

[Loslote]

Alright. I have to go to work, and I won't be back until after the DL, so I'll go ahead and

++Morsul

Because I think he slipped when he assumed/knew Cabbie is innocent, and while I have more concrete suspicions on Nog, I also happen to think Nog is a cobbler, not a wizard, so I'd prefer not to vote a suspected cobbler when I could vote a suspected wizard.

[satansaloser2005]

Suspicious:
Volo - for that whole "I'm creating a bandwagon" thing
Gil - for being far too much of a martyr to be legitimate
Morsul - for assuming Cab's innocence

Hmmmm:
Nogrod - for his post late yesterDay
McCaber - Pom's reaction to his vote (one she'd seen it) strikes me as incriminating, though I could be reaching
Shasta - he would totally do that to one of his mates, no question (nothing else though at the moment)

No strong feelings:
Greenie
Brinn
Dun
Nerwen
Oz
Rikae

Leaning innocent:
Cop - it seems unlikely that Pom would do what she did if Cop were her mate

Will not vote toDay:
Boro - not going to be here anyway, so it doesn't seem sporting
Kath - at risk of modfire, and nothing to go on anyway
Bane - at risk of modfire
Lottie - speaks sense, at least for now



x'd with Trollottie

[Coppermirror]

McCaber: I just do not know about him right now. It could be the case that he's a wizard and that's why Pom freaked out, or that she was opportunistically trying to point the finger at him and look innocent herself. A little bit of what he said on page 1 makes me suspicious, but not enough to tip the balance to guilty.

He said that his vote for me was "for being hasty and suspicion-mongering". Hasty, when I'd already said I'd be voting early? Suspicion mongering, a bit hard to do on such little evidence at that point. However, earlier on in #94 his explanation for suspicion sounded a bit better. I do have to agree with something Greenie said about him not stopping to consider non-guilty possibilities, though.

ToDay he said that it's most likely that the wizards yesterDay voted for him or me. That would be a more sensible tactic than defence. And he ends up voting for Rikae on account of perceived backing off from her suspicions yesterDay. I'm by no means writing McCaber off as innocent, but I won't be voting for him toDay.

Rikae: Pom had a good feeling about Rikae, as did several other people. If Rikae is a wizard, I'd say that McCaber probably isn't, and vice versa, given the way things have played out. Rikae claims to have been suspicious of me for "looking helpful" in a post earlier, which as I don't think we've played together before is something I could see someone thinking of. Is a bit suspicious of Greenie for being agreeable, but then thinks at least Greenie was criticising McCab.

Now, Rikae hasn't posted a huge amount, but overall as I've looked through the posts just now I've felt less suspicious of them, and I'm a bit troubled about McCaber's vote. Not enough to vote for him.

Boromir: He ended up voting for me fairly late on in the day because of disliking my vote, and also disliked Brin's vote. ToDay, his post #162 looked pretty sensible to me, with a plausible theory of Pom's wizard-mates not bussing her, and more likely targets being those who tried to put forward other candidates, noting Volo, Nog, and Ozban.

His vote yesterDay could have been an attempt to save Pom himself, however. Can't really draw a conclusion about him, especially as he won't be here to vote toDay.

Nerwen: Is probably aware that if Nog gets lynched and is innocent, people will look carefully at her toMorrow. That means she's a bit more likely to not be a wizard. I may take another look at her posts before deadline. I think it'll take a long time and that I won't be wanting to vote for her toDay anyway, so I'll move on to something more productive.

Greenie: Hard to analyse, but time is getting short (at the snail pace rate I analyse things) and since I don't think there was anything that would make me consider voting for her toDay I'll skip her for now.

Loslote: feeling quite good about her, but I haven't had time to look through her posts individually. As I don't think there's any chance I'll be voting for her, I'm skipping her for now.

Right now I am considering Volo and Morsul, for the reasons given by Sally and Loslote, but I have yet to read through all of their posts myself, and will start doing so now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Problem with Internet at home. Can only get on from phone. Will not be voting today - cannot read thread. Don't lynch me. Bad idea. Hopefully fixed toMorrow.

[Gil-Galad]

Volo has been one that has been playing rather... Sloppy. This could mean that Vol has no role and thus little interest, or trying to play it super low if given a role. The bandwagon comment and bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee is unsettling.

Thus for toDay, I am going to have to say:

++Volo

If he turns out to be an Ordo, then I will have to go back to my initial suspect of Brin. We shall see toNight as I won't be back on until right before the deadline.

[Coppermirror]

Er, and briefly a few other people first before Morsul and Volo. Just from impressions, not from considering their posts carefully, since time is getting on. I may come back to the people I've skimmed over later on, if I have time.

Inzil: I'm not worried about Inzil, for once. Doesn't mean he's innocent, but I don't recall him doing anything suspicious, and my gut feelings are of innocence.

Brin: Might have been targeted by Pom, in which case she's a bit less likely to be a wizard. I didn't find her explanation for her Nerwen vote unbelievable. Overall, no strong feelings about her guilt or innocence, but I'm leaning towards the innocent side.

Kath: Kath who? Come back, Kath!

Gil: Took a stirring the pot tactic yesterDay. I don't think I've played with him before, so it's hard to know how to interpret that tactic. The one thing that makes me suspicious of him toDay is that he decided that Pom's actions make more sense if she was backing off from a packmate after an empty vote gone wrong, which doesn't make sense for reasons that have been pointed out. Was that a genuine suggestion or pot stirring?

Edit: cross-posted with Gil

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Zil

Greenie's vote could be seen as bandwaggonish, but she reasoned it pretty well.

Actually I cross-posted with Rikae's vote, so I thought I was the first to vote McCaber.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Ok, I need to leave for class soon which means I need to make my voting choice for toNight now. And I have to say, from here Rikae's sudden turn after Pom's and my votes looks rather fishy. She did her best to turn everyone's attention away from Pom and onto me, despite that our votes and reasoning were basically identical (and on line with what Rikae herself had posted just ahead of that). To me, that behavior reads like being able to make points against a fellow wizard while getting an innocent lynched at the same time. Maybe I'm too close to this to see really objectively on it, but as I'm short on time and nothing has really jumped out at me toNight as wizard-sign,

This is, I think, a shrewd point. I probably can't vote McCaber toDay since he makes so much sense to me!

Originally Posted by Gil

I feel like I need to point this out and ask for others to keep an eye on it, but something is bugging me about Brin and Nerwe. Just that Brin voted Nerwe, then when I voted the same I got the most attention. I had to explain my reasoning later to defend myself since I couldn't say "Its a secret test" at first which would ultimately defeat the secret part of the test. Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.

Also a good point, and something I might want to look into. (Especially seeing as those two ladies are the players I've always had most trouble reading. Them and Inzil, that is.)

Originally Posted by Cop

Shasta: He voted Pom, making that the deciding vote. That was important. However, I don't think it says anything at all for whether Shasta is innocent. From either side, that was a good move to make.

Might be just a different opinion on what's a good move for a wolf, but for me, giving a fellow a deciding vote that way seems insane. Especially coming from someone who had hardly had time to post at all and who therefore could have gone for anyone without seeming inconsistent. So yeah, giving Shasta a pass for the moment.

Originally Posted by Sally

Intentionally starting a bandwagon and admitting to doing so is just never going to sit right with me.

The thing is, you can't lynch anyone without multiple people voting for the same person. What killed Pomzard yesterDay was, in effect, a bandwagon. We tend not to call it that because it worked out well for us, but that's essentially what it was. So yes, I think that in our great adversity to bandwagons, we tend to forget they can be pretty useful too.

Which is not to say that I agree with Volo's vote for Nerwen. I never could read her so I have next to no idea whether to suspect her or not, but I definitely don't think she's our best bet toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Gil and Copper

[Kath]

Hello! I'm here! Quick deadline check - from the timing of this post I have 2 hours yes?

Off for a readthrough. :-)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Kath

Hello! I'm here! Quick deadline check - from the timing of this post I have 2 hours yes?

Correct.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Correct.

Oh, thank goodness. I read the timezones wrong and thought there was only half of that to go.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Hello! I'm here! Quick deadline check - from the timing of this post I have 2 hours yes?

Off for a readthrough. :-)

Just affirming that it indeed is correct And as a general reminder, that votes should be cast before the XX:01 time.

[Nogrod]

You guys do post. I would have been soo happy about this a few years ago but now with little time to spare it kind of makes it seem more like a hopeless mountain to climb.

Still one whole page to read... but here and reading... back soon.

[Rikae]

Well, just first impressions (yes, I'm late, which proves I'm not a wizard):

First of all, I'm kicking myself for that "a wizard would be more careful" business yesterday! Seeing Pom & Cab's votes I was sure there was evil afoot, and my first instinct was to blame Pom. I had the post half typed up, then went "nah, too sloppy to be a wizard".

If I recall correctly it was Nog who mentioned that Pom was panicky about being in a possible bandwagon, which was a sensible statement and I almost said so (again). In fact, it was more sensible than the speculation I see about Pom's panic today: that is, as a wolf she would be jumpy about the possibility of looking suspicious, and her first response to Cab's apparent bandwagoning was "this makes me look bad!" which, of course, it did. I doubt a wolfish Nog would cast Pom in such a bad light at that point when he could have ignored it. I also doubt he would have cast his late vote in such a way as to draw negative attention to himself in a last-ditch attempt to save a packmate. Also Pom's #95 about Nog naming the wrong number of wizards - which he didn't, anyway - is odd. Why is she jumping on a reason to make Nog look more innocent, though she words it in the least conclusive way possible? Could just be a wizardish interest in a remark about wizards, spun into something semi-substantial but non-committal. Could also be an attempt to make a packmate look innocent. I'm not leaning in that direction, though.

I'd rather leave both Nerwen and Nog alone for toDay. They are talkative and sooner or later, if evil, could slip up; if not, they're helpful to have around.

Cab, your vote looked opportunistic, so the reasoning was secondary. My first suspicion on Cop was thin but all I had to go on at the time, but (as I was hoping) the reactions to it were informative.

Looking at Greenie: she comes off as very agreeable yesterDay, and goes after Cab at the point when people were wondering whether he or Pom looked worse for bandwagoning against Cop. She defends Pom slightly. I can't say if it's wizardish or not at this point.

Bane and Nog are the first ones arguing against Pom:

Originally Posted by Bane

Pom warns us to be suspicious of people voting for Cop, which includes Pom. Don't you find that to be a bit incongruous?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It feels pretty natural to me that - if she is just a troll that is - after voting and seeing there was another vote to Copper as well, just as the talk around him had started, she felt people should pay attention to it; even if she is herself included. I mean I could have said that if I were in her position.

Then again - and the trouble being - I could have said that also were I a wolf and in her position, just to make myself look considerate. A safe vote would be something a wolf would long for. Maybe a PomWizard thought her vote for Copper was safely reasoned when she sent it, but then seeing Cab's vote made her uneasy and she felt she had to downplay the idea she was bandwagoning, at least in any sneaky fashion?

Ok, he's wishy washier than I remembered about it, but it makes sense.

Inzil was the first to vote for Pom. I don't find it particularly innocentish: at this point she didn't seem very likely to be lynched.

Oz's vote for Cab (#130) looks quite bad to me. At this point advancing a Cab wagon would seem possible and desirable to a wizard (assuming Cab is innocent, and Pom's reaction to him makes me think so). He uses reasoning others have put forward, and reiterates suspicion of red shirt Gil (to look consistent, and as a possible easy lynch in the future?)

Nog continued to argue against Pom in a couple more posts when he could have easily let it drop. Makes him look better to me.

What is the point of Oz's #142, I wonder? Points out who is tied (Cab, Cop, Nerve and Pom) and " I have a feeling much will change before deadline yet". Well, yeah. Something seems fishy here. It's like he's trying to draw someone's attention to the need for a certain vote.

Now, today, Oz comes in with a case against Morsul based entirely on yesterday's posts. Almost as if he, oh, wrote it during the night, not thinking that the night's events, or today's posts, would give him any new information.

Originally Posted by Oz

I had only limited time to look at Mors's toDay/Night's posts.

Then he votes - a fairly safe vote if I'm not mistaken.

Also, for the record, I don't hate banter. I just find recapping banter suspiciously pointless, and when I'm asked to be a troll, I do it my way.

Ok, for reasons stated above:

++Ozban

[Coppermirror]

Morsul

Talks about how he usually suspects Pom, and later says that "Pom's suggestion seems to be fairly genuine little information is better than no information." I found this a bit odd.

He goes for Kath about her Wizard of Oz comment. I'm not sure whether there's anything in that. Votes for her, and on the evidence so far it wasn't an unreasonable vote.

Like many others, he thinks that it's not likely that wizards voted for Pom.

In #164 he's suspicious of Loslote because of her being the second Pom vote, theorising that she could have felt secure in a McCaber lynch. But, I don't think that's likely, given how many people were suspicious of Pom and how quickly things were going. In the end, the votes were close, so people voting really shouldn't have treated their votes as throwaway. Even so, I haven't looked at Loslote's posts in depth myself.

In #172 he presents a theory on the vote placement, which isn't awful divorced of context, but which I think forgets that a wizzard wouldn't know in advance how the voting would go.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.

That could be an innocent's mistake, or a bad slip. I'd be reluctant to vote for him only on that slip.

Ozban analyses his posts and decides to vote for him.


Volo

#55 - questions McCaber.
#108 - a bit hard to follow...
#126 - agrees with what he describes as Rikae's defence of me.
#132 - Is unsure about Nerwen, thinks Pom feels more genuine than McCaber, whom she describes as more "naughty".

Then suddenly...

Originally Posted by Volo

Ok, Nerwen is the one I find the most suspicious of those who have votes and will vote for her to save McCaber if I can't agree with someone on a more suspicious character. Due to so much submarineing, I don't feel confident about there being a Wizer in the voted lot.

Originally Posted by Volo

++Nerwen
This is a bandwagon. McCaber and Pom are less suspicious and they're up to 3 votes, so this is to counter that. Also, lots of talk, little reasoning.

There's a lot of flip-flopping about here. But this bit might actually be the most likely attempt to save Pom. But...would a wizard really do it this way, actually talking about saving her?

#205 - appears to suspect Rikae on the grounds of influential posts yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Volo

General chronological observation:
Cop #52 "There's more of us than any can count." This doesn't feel entirely genuinely said. Numbers feel like an advantage against the Wizers.

It's a reference to the narration.

Anyway, I'm finding it hard to pick out the wizzards. Roughly in order, these are my current suspicions.

Suspicious:

- Volo, for the attempt to save Pom and a number of inconsistencies before he voted.
- Morsul, for a few odd things throughout toDay and yesterDay.
- Gil, for going for me toDay on grounds I don't think make any sense.
- Nog, for vote placement yesterDay.
- McCaber for a number of things mentioned in post #218.

Uncertain:
Boromir
Shasta
Bane
Nerwen
A Little Green
Kath
Rikae

Feeling relatively good about:
Loslote
Brin
Sally

And then there's Ozban, whom I somehow seem to have forgotten about almost entirely until now. Epic failure on my part, how could I do that...

Edit: crossed with Nog, Rikae.

[Kath]

Comments on me:
I fear I have misunderstood something given how many people commented on my post about the Wizard of Oz yesterDay. Someone said me not replying was suspicious. Even had I been there I wouldn't have known what I was replying to - what did I miss?

Ah it was Volo who said my failure to reply was trying to intentionally be mysterious. He would have undoubtedly noticed my absence and knows my playing history. This is odd to me.

Pom:
Mentioned the Gil/Nerwen debate and determined both were innocents. Thinks Cop's early vote for someone who is usually a valuable villager is suspicious. Says Brinn is suspicious for voting someone who was trying to get discussion going. Thinks Nerwen isn't suspicious. Went 'oh no! bandwagon!' after STARTING the bandwagon! Well I can see why she was lynched now!

Votes:
Cop --> Boro (gut feeling, little content)
Morsul --> Kath (Cobbler hints <-- this I don't get!)
Brinn --> Nerwen (excessive banter and picking comments to use for lynch material)
Gil --> Nerwen 2 (no reasoning, says she has most input but won't add another name?!?)
McCaber --> Coppermirror (for being hasty and suspicion-mongering)
Pom --> Coppermirror 2 (focusing on Boro's IC comments but ignoring others)
Rikae --> McCaber (for the Cop bandwaggon)
Greenie --> McCaber 2 (overeager Cop suspicion and misrepresenting what people said)
Inzil --> Pom (for telling people to watch those who vote Cop, after voting for Cop)
Ozban --> McCaber 3 (opportunistic vote and not contributing much)
Lottie --> Pom 2 (some suspicion of her, no suspicion of the others on the block)
Boro --> Coppermirror 3 (for their vote - this brought the votes to a tie again)
Volo --> Nerwen 3 (anti-the-others-bandwagon and little reasoning - this was bringing an old name back in, she hadn't had votes for quite some time)
sally --> Pom 3 (blatant bandwaggoning)
Shasta --> Pom 4 (puts her in the lead - wasn't labelled as a crosspost so was a choice)
Nog --> McCaber 4 (for voting early and hanging around - knew this was a vote that wouldn't affect the lynch)

Pom dies and is a wizard (yay!).


Yesterday:
I think 'suspicion-mongering' is harsh for Cop, who voted very early amidst a lot of banter.

I was interested to see in the early banter of yesterDay that within Mors' seemingly empty list there were a couple of items of note. He said Brinn is 'fairly low key so will watch' - does this mean that she is under the radar so we need not to forget about her or is there vague suspicion there? Pom was also there as 'always seems suspicious to me'. I have no knowledge of their previous games so if there is history there perhaps this makes sense, otherwise perhaps interesting given the lynch yesterDay.

Rikae and the wizards turning into gifted's thing ... attempt to start conversation?

Ozban posted a very useless 'suspicion' list. I mean, there were plenty of unhelpful recapping posts where all they showed were literally shortened version of what was said with no analysis so this at least was better, but it just went 'everyone is suspicious'. Non-committal. Does come out with own thoughts later.

Nerwen hinting that if Cop does a lot of re-capping posts she is more likely to be a wolf. Good laying of ground-work by a wolf to pick up on later, can see what Brinn meant.

Gil and Nerwen mini-fight probably not an issue. Gil always dies early precisely because of exactly what he did yesterDay. Nerwen overreacts to this kind of playing.

Rikae faintly defends Pom - saying a wizard would surely be less wishy-washy.

Greenie suspects Nerwen for such different reasons to Brinn, she seems to then end up with suspicion of Brinn too! Crazy suspicion triangles going on. Thought Cop could be a wizard with the Boro vote because there is no way a bandwagon would have built up - I agree with this.

Had found myself worrying about Volo. There seemed to be a lot of looking at what everyone else had done and not giving much away. Then suddenly he comes out with big bold statements which made me feel a lot better about him.

Quick thoughts on yesterDay coming up then will read toDay.

EDIT: Crossed with everyone since my last post.

[Coppermirror]

At the moment, the people I'm considering voting for are Volo, who has the most inconsistencies, and maybe Ozban or Morsul. Ozban's sudden votes look very fishy to me, and there are a number of things that worry me about Morsul. I don't think I'll vote Nog. I am a bit concerned about Gil but unless someone has a good argument, I don't think I'll vote for him toDay. I'm still suspicious of McCaber, but I don't know if it's enough to vote for him.

Ozban

#87, #91 - concerned about Gil's vote, finds him suspicious.

Says nothing else that I can find until

Originally Posted by Ozban

++McCaber
I dislike his vote, rather too convenient and opportunistic. And his input up to that strikes me like attempt to make himself seen, yet adding nothing of value. Still we are at Day1 and I never played with him.
As to my previous doubts of Gil. I'd rather watch him somewhat longer. But still is high on my list 'to inspect'.

#158 - finds Nog's vote suspicious.
#200 - turns up with analysis of Morsul and a Morsul vote. It's not a bad analysis, but I am left wondering what his opinions about other people are, and I'm not sure it's enough for the vote. I really would have liked to know more about what he was thinking. He hasn't been one of the most talkative players, by any means. Both times, his vote has been sudden. That worries me the most.

Edit: crossed with Kath.

[Kath]

So yesterDay.

Well it's blindingly obvious why Pom was lynched. That whole 'I've just voted for Cop but now that everyone else has voted for Cop you should find them all suspicious' business ... oops moment from a wolf there. That said, she's not wrong. Looking at Cop voters I think is a good idea. Cop's vote was early. All there was was banter. Duh it's going to be a bad vote.

So on that front: McCaber, Pom and Boro

However, as Pom was a wizard, not sure how likely it is that either of those others would be. Boro was bringing the votes to a tie but as it's first to the highest number of votes its not a bold move. McCaber being the first ... may have felt like a safe vote but then would Pom have followed that vote up if McCaber were a wolf? But that phrase 'suspicion-mongering' from McCaber I still don't like.

Am still worried about Volo having re-read my thoughts. Don't like that he was suspicious of me for possibly deliberately failing to respond to a comment on me being Cobbler-ish. Also he did spend nearly the whole Day not giving strong opinions on anything. Will see if looking at toDay changes my mind on that.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Kath

Gil and Nerwen mini-fight probably not an issue. Gil always dies early precisely because of exactly what he did yesterDay. Nerwen overreacts to this kind of playing.

this kind of playing

I like this because it makes me feel like a raving lunatic, and everyone should read this.

Also, enough with the "Gil gave no reasoning" assumption. I did give reasoning, you just chose not to accept it or claim there is no reasoning for my reasoning.

*runs off wailing his arms with nothing on but his red shirt*

xed with: Sir Kath the not appearing in this film.

[Morsul the Dark]

So my using a hypothetical is getting me votes... Oh well. C'est La vie.

Will read the last couple pages more in depth just scanned them quick.

[Inziladun]

I think I should probably go ahead and vote.

Based on what Nog has since said, I don't think I'll go for him toNight.

Boro apparently can't be here toNight (something I'd missed), so I don't want to vote for him when he hasn't had an opportunity to explain his vote yesterNight.

I still think Volo's vote the least suspicious among he, Nog and Boro. Now he has two votes, one of them Gil. Interestingly, Gil also was the second vote for Nerwen YesterNight. As part of his reasoning for voting Volo, he cites the latter's "bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee". When he himself voted for Nerwen?

So, two straight bandwaggons. That gets my radar going.

I could vote for Ozban too though. The Morsul vote toNight looks rather fabricated. Coupled with his putting Cab in the lead yesterNight doesn't help him look any better.

x/d with all since # 229.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The thing is, you can't lynch anyone without multiple people voting for the same person. What killed Pomzard yesterDay was, in effect, a bandwagon. We tend not to call it that because it worked out well for us, but that's essentially what it was. So yes, I think that in our great adversity to bandwagons, we tend to forget they can be pretty useful too.

This is true, but he didn't say, "I don't think McCaber and Pom are guilty, but I think Nerwen is." He specifically said, "McCaber and Pom are....up to three votes, so this is to counter that." The candidates presented to him were not to his satisfaction, so he offered another one. Nothing wrong there in theory, but given that he voiced his opinion so strongly and that the "less suspicious" candidate he tried to prevent lynching was a wizard....well, you can see where that's going.

It doesn't feel like he was lobbying for a guilty candidate. It feels like he was lobbying for a candidate he wanted.


x'd with Gil, Morsul, and Dun

[Inziladun]

After quick deliberation, Gil may be acting too careless for a Wizard. So...

++Ozban

and hope for the best.

[Nogrod]

Okay then.

I do think both McCaber (on #210) and Gil (on #211) managed to make themselves look more innocent than I had thought of them earlier on = I had found them both pretty suspicious, and to a degree still do, but am a bit less happy about my suspicion right now.

Morsul's "'blunder" looks pretty bad - and an easy way out for the Wizards if it is an innocent one (that he really meant it in a speculative way). The same I think goes for Volo. They seem to be both the "easy targets" toDay anyone can vote.

I'm afraid of many, like Brinn, Rikae and Greenie who would be playing perfectly were they wolves: open and yet above serious suspicions.

And I'm still curious about why Bane didn't come forwards at the last minute yesterDay... Did I put you in a too narrow a straight you decided to abstain from voting?

Nerwen I feel looks a bit too premeditated, like she knows what she is talking about and where she wishes to draw the attention and on what way. Inzil I could see doing something similar.

EDIT: X'd with a host...

[Kath]

ToDay! (We've made it!)

Ummm - this from Morsul:
A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.
Sorry - how do we know Cab is innocent?

Pretty much voting for Morsul from now for that comment.

Ooh and Lottie has spotted it too.

Ah I've skimmed but I'm not going to get this out of my head. I'm tired too. And I need to make sure I vote toDay.

++MORSUL

For, well, that really.

[Morsul the Dark]

++ Ozban

His vote for me seems to be picking up on other people's suspicion(Which I don't really get but can accept) Seems a little forced and coming from a conclusion first evidence later mentality. Wife's using computer so won't be back before DL.
x'ed since Zil