Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The no-lynch debate, Form? Really? I have no desire to fight that windmill again but I'm juts gonna say 1) we've got to try to lynch the wolves because they're killing us every Night and 2) how boring would the game be if we never voted (wouldn't we be trapped in your nightmare, a perpetual Day1 )?

What about the joke about Nogrod being a confused ordo and himself being a werewolf carefully studying the rules that rang just a bit too honest to be just a joke? That sounded pretty wolfy to me - or possibly something the chaotic type cobbler would say for funsies.

Well, for what it's worth, Nog's argument actually rings true to me... because I'm am ordo and I did have to reread the rules immediately pregame.

Obviously, it would be boring if EVERY game had a Day 1 No-Vote. That's why Mods make rules to the contrary and THAT is why I'm knee deep in apparently being named the village cobbler: because I have to play with a rule I don't know (or remember--I have played few WW games this past half dozen years).

I am mildly tempted to do it anyway, because once you've floated an idea into the world and had it attacked, what is more human than hunkering down and admitting no quarter? But the still small voice protests this won't help the village (mostly because *I* will die, the sole Innocent I know).

But, on the other hand... I have no alternative plan and my newfound enjoyment of WWing again will not be entirely squelched if I open the Dead Thread...

It's literally Nilp or no one as my vote... and Nilp deserves to live if only to thwart his suicidal tendencies.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't understand the usage of "risky" here. Brinn, explain?

I mean it would be risky for the wolves to bus a packmate as early as Day 1. Of course it's not impossible.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't think "playing differently than recent wolf-self" is that much of an indicator of innocence.

I agree, it does not. But it is also not an indicator of guilt. Hui's change in play style makes me think better of him for at least toDay when there's not much else to go on. I just don't get suspicious vibes of him right now.

Okay, and now I see that Hui started his post with calling Formy innocentish and ended it by voting him...so maybe I should rethink that.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold.)

+0609: Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+2208: Sally - none (Nilp – 1)
+2246: Shasta - hS (Nilp – 1, hS - 1)
+2312: hS - Form (Nilp – 1, hS - 1, Form - 1)
+2325: BG - Form (Nilp – 1, hS - 1, Form - 2)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Which sounds like he was thinking and writing at the same time and changing his mind about Form along the way.

But (! attention! Lommy flip flop imminent) it is kinda fishy he goes a full circle to implying he suspected Form all along.

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

[A Little Green]

I've decided it isn't too late to add another name.

++Pitchwife

Out of the ones I mentioned earlier, I'm most comfortable voting for him. Too tired to think this any further so crossing fingers and toes instead!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

Are you saying you think wolf!Hui mixed up whether he voiced fabricated suspicion of Form before or not?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, a very quick one, because I see posts appearing as I write... however:

A Little Green - nothing suspicious thus far, sensible posts
Blind Guardian - very easy posting with the "I'm jumping on Kath's vote and just adding one of my own to it". Hoping to see more from them, might get a better picture after an actual vote.
Brinniel - only a few posts, nothing that stood out, aside from that she also seemed to discuss some of the WW tactics in a manner that made me wonder whether she had discussed it at Night with someone, but that's about it.
Formendacil - see above. Probably made me wary the most, but I would very much like to see some more posting from him to make a more three-dimensional picture.
Huinesoron - like I said, as of now, the fact that he's posting much more inquisitively than in the previous game seems more like an indicator of innocence to me, even though I acknowledge the possibility of otherwise.
Kath - also see what I said in my post above - posts sensibly, I guess I will just watch her more closely.
Loslote - I am not sure what to make of her "let's not lynch a Wolf" suggestion, because, I don't think even a Wolf would suggest that. A Cobbler might, perhaps.
Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.
Nogrod - I see he's compensating on not being able to talk about Kant and Marx in the previous game, but to be fair, I also, kind of, expected him to be more... controversial, perhaps, or inquisitive. (However I see this may be changing as we speak.)
Nilp - well, as I said above: the evidence is inconclusive and it could be anything. Not even the shoes at posts that Rikae pointed out seem to be in any reasonable order. It is kind of a setback that to get some read of him grounded in something more relevant, one would have to wait for his vote on Day 2. I will probably reserve my judgment for toDay to get a better read of him in the future.
Pitchwife - actually he seems to be poking around a lot too. I agree that his talk about fishskin shoes might be a Cobbler signal, otherwise he seems a bit all over the place. I'm also wary there.
Rikae - generally seems like their normal self.
sally - okay, I see that toDay wasn't seemingly the best Day, I hope she can participate in the future, so get better, sally!

But I will use this as opportunity of seeing a no-vote to say that I disapprove of no-votes and likely will crack down on anyone who does that. I can understand in this one case (and I would add "and it being Day 1" - but then I can already see more people doing it "because Day 1s are useless yadda yadda" and THAT is still the worst thing people can do, whatever their role - votes are here to give information!) But for anyone who's healthy and all, please, vote.

Shastanis Althreduin - I like his posting and actually agree on many of his points. Pretty good for now.
Thinlómien - overall innocent Lommy vibes here, nothing special.

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!

EDIT: x-ed with a million again

[Rikae]

Too many people either absent or lurking

Oh well, my strongest suspicion at this point:

++Huinesoron

[Thinlómien]

++Nilp

I think he's fairly likely either a wolf or the cobbler and it's the best lead I have.

Form is my other main suspect but I keep flipflopping about him. Currently slightly leaning "innocent whose brain works in a way I don't understand".

[Loslote]

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

[Loslote]

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.

[Kath]

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

Of course, that assumes Hui's guilt but it stuck out to me.

Am on phone and can't figure out how to bold.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Are you saying you think wolf!Hui mixed up whether he voiced fabricated suspicion of Form before or not?

Yes and no. I see it more likely as a slip.

If you're an innocent and honestly think someone is innocent and then decide to vote that person on grounds of that person doing something you detest at the last hour, you don't reason for it on the basis of your earlier suspicions!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.

And one for Pitch. And I don't think it's too late to add another name, either.

[Boromir88]

Quick tally...

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)
Greenie > Pitch
Rikae > Huey (2)
Lommy > Nilp (2)


No vote: sally

15 mins to go

[Thinlómien]

Kath, type without spaces [ b ] [ / b ] around stuff. And similarly "highlight" instead of "b" for the highlighting.

[Nogrod]

Ok. I'll try to also learn this "voting before the absolute last minute" as well.

++ Huinesoron


I'm not confident about this, but that's the best one I can reason myself to stand behind.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Kath

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

I agree with your first sentence. It does seem like an easy bandwagon vote. But I don't think it implies Hui's guilt if BG is a wolf.

[Loslote]

++Legate

His last post struck me as way more suspicious than any of the other candidates. It was full of long words and had the overall effect of hemming and hawing, and majorly pinged my radar.

[Kath]

Well I am going to assume not all the wolves have voted yet and go for Hui to see what happens after that.

++HUI

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.

So... I know I'm Innocent. I think Nilp a hair more likely to be Innocent than not. I actually think Huin's mid-post flop on me feels more Innocent than Wolf, since I've reasoned my way to different positions mid-post many a time--and I rarely clean the post back up before hitting "post."

Pitchwife might be a hair more evil than not to my gut, but I'm wary of giving him an extra vote that might make me look a Cobbler...

[Macalaure]

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

The way he grabs all the attention makes him a possible cobbler, or maybe a suicidal nightwolf, but I doubt that.

With that conjecture in mind, I had a fresh look at all the people who're interacting with him. I really don't want to put all my notes in here, just kind of the conclusions. The ones that stuck out a little:

Nog - first he's part of the discussion on what wolves do and what they don't and whether and how we should discuss that. Then he quotes half of his posts with the conclusion that he's pointing out he's trying to catch wolves too much. So many quotes for a so-so point.
Rikae - calls him a man on a mission. "Not sure I agree with his conclusion" is the kind of non-statements a wolf might make.
Kath - fake votes for him pushing too much. It seems a bit harsh to put him on the lynching block over without actually committing.
Pitch - comments on a number of things, but nothing of consequence really. Then agrees and adds a little to the point of his paranoia about Lottie. Too lurking around the fringes for my taste.
Shasta - throws a little bit of everything at him and then votes for him for lack of better options, which feels like the easy way out.

None of this feels enough to justify a vote. Might go with Pitch since he's the only one who has gotten votes and I'd like to not lynch Hui, or Form for that matter.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, now I'm thinking Form may be a Cobbler for the no-vote suggestion.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. Maybe it's a language issue (and it could be on my part as well), but someone willing to make people think the wolves are mainly on the quiet side of the village might formulate the message thusly?

It wasn't supposed to be a "A leads to B" thing, I was thinking along the lines that it's been quiet overall, and perhaps if there was nothing big to stir some massive loud debate (provoked by a Cobbler), then the WWs were also lying low. It was more like the observation of current state of things.

Anyways... all Day nothing, now million posts... can't answer anything I wanted and gotta vote.

EDIT: x-ed with some

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?


IIRC Hui actually had some early suspicion of Formy, then after pushing (TM) him a bit thought him innocent based on his reactions, then changed his mind again in the eleventh hour. It was a sudden turn, to be sure, with reasoning borrowed from the posts above him, but I can't find fault with the reasoning itself.


I don't get Legate about quiet wolves & cobbler either - at least for the latter, isn't being quiet kind of the contrary of their job description, i.e. drawing attention from the wolves? Which makes me reluctant to vote either Formy or Nilp (although I suppose the latter could be a wolf posing as cobbler...hmm).


Also, BG hopping on the Formy train with reasoning borrowed wholesale? *ping*


Right now I feel most like voting Kath for her misrepresentation of Hui.

[Macalaure]

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

Yeah. I really don't think he's a wolf.

[Thinlómien]

8 minutes guys. Not the time for "right now I maybe feel like". Do something before chaos erupts, please.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?

Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: "I trusted X but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote X".

I would have understood that.

[Brinniel]

I don't really like the voting options so far. I thought Formy seemed a tad suspicious, but I'm having second thoughts. Throwing another candidate into the ring:

++Blind Guardian

For her opportunistic vote.

[Thinlómien]

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)
Greenie > Pitch
Rikae > Huey (2)
Lommy > Nilp (2)
Nog > Huey (3)
Lottie > Legate
Kath > Huey (4)
Brinn > BG

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: I trusted but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote.

I would have understood that.

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.

[Boromir88]

Quick tally...

Nilp > Nilp
Shasta > Huey
Huey > Form
BG > Form (2)
Greenie > Pitch
Rikae > Huey (2)
Lommy > Nilp (2)
Nog > Huey (3)
Lottie > Legate
Kath > Huey (4)
Brinn > BG


No vote: sally

5 minutes to go.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, actually after what Kath and Brinn just pointed out about BG's vote, I'd almost prefer voting BG, but that's probably not a thing anymore... therefore will simply go with

++Form

It is possible he might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.

[Formendacil]

++ Nilpaurion Felagund


It was that, a self-vote, or a No Vote. I think Huin is being slightly railroaded, having been a loud voice today and while that doens't mean he's not a wolf, it doesn't mean he is. And as someone else who's been comparative vocal, I'm leaning away from that being a good reason to vote.

Not that Nilp is necessarily guilty, but after fifteen years, he has no one to blame but himself if an Innocent dies on Day 1 because of him.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

8 minutes guys. Not the time for "right now I maybe feel like". Do something before chaos erupts, please.

OK.
++Kath

[Macalaure]

++Pitchwife

[Loslote]

If wolves were trying to save Huin, they have easy candidates in Form and Nilp. It probably doesn't bode well here that we're not seeing a push towards anyone else.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, actually after what Kath and Brinn just pointed out about BG's vote, I'd almost prefer voting BG, but that's probably not a thing anymore..

Should've gotten my vote in earlier...

[Huinesoron]

Couldn't sleep. Looks like I'm dead? Well, for whatever it's worth, I meant 'I suspected him, his answer made me think he was innocent, but people keep saying I have poor judgement so I' ll disregard the latter. '

I' m just an ordinary villager; sorry for being distracting. I'll try to do better as a corpse.

[Brinniel]

Anyone else left to vote?