WW CV: They Should Make a Movie About This! (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Okay. In what will no doubt seem a complete about-face, I am going to state that this time I do think Lottie was probably killed as a suspected “Seer”. I believe what I said yesterDay was misunderstood: I don’t mean wolves don’t *want* to get the Seer on Night Two, but in practice they often haven’t much of a clue at that point, while by Night Three they can usually make a much better guess.

Lottiealysis to follow.

EDIT: X’d with Kit.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kit, pleading insanity

1) Everyone vote for me. I take down a random voter in the event of my death, there's a chance I could bring down a wolf when I do.
The downside to this plan is that I could also bring down the ranger or the seer. So it's very risky, seeing as the village has been lucky enough to have both still alive.

??? We're 5:3. The maniac bringing down any innocent toDay would make it 3:3! It wouldn’t matter whether it was a gifted or not.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

??? We're 5:3. The maniac bringing down any innocent toDay would make it 3:3! It wouldn’t matter whether it was a gifted or not.

Oh fudge. This is why I didn't major in math. :/
I am just a hot mess this game.

[Coppermirror]

D1 votes:

Greenie-innocent --> Sally (1)
Legate-innocent --> Boro (1)
Lommy --> Sally (2)
Nog --> Kitanna (1)
Boro --> Lommy (1)
Lottie-innocent --> Legate-innocent (1)
Cop --> Legate-innocent (2)
Nerwen --> Kitanna (2)
Kitanna --> Legate-innocent (3)
Sally --> Legate-innocent (4)

Non-voters: Kath, Shasta

D2 votes:

Cop --> Sally (1)
Boro --> Lottie-innocent (1)
Kath --> Kitanna (1)
Lommy --> Sally (2)
Nog-innocent --> Sally (3)
Kitanna --> Nog-innocent (1)
Lottie-innocent --> Nog-innocent (2)
Shasta --> Kitanna (2)
Sally --> Nog-innocent (3)
Nerwen --> Nog-innocent (4) (late)

Non-voters: nobody.

Right, I'll start by looking at just the votes without context, then I'll go and read what happened yesterDay in more detail.

The pattern of the days has gone similarly, with a cluster of scattered first votes within which Sally is the only one to get a second vote at first, at the tail end of which a single vote is cast for the person who will eventually get lynched, followed by a second vote for that person and a second vote for Kitanna, then two more votes for the person who gets lynched.

On Day 1, the one who cast the vote that got Legate lynched was Kitanna, and at the time she was in danger from a three way tie between her, Sally and Legate. To save herself, she had to break the tie, and chose Legate over Sally.

On Day 2, the one who cast the vote that got Nog lynched was Sally. To attempt to save herself by creating a tie, her options were Kitanna and Nog, and she chose Nog over Kitanna.

The only person who has voted for the same person twice was Lommy. So the overall pattern has been so similar on both days that unless Sally and Kitanna are both wolves, which at a guess is unlikely, I'm not sure what can be learned from it divorced of context. It would be interesting to look back over some past games to see if the same pattern gets repeated often.

And...I see as I write this that Kitanna's just revealed as a possible Maniac.

Edit: crossed since Nerwen at #162.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

The only person who has voted for the same person twice was Lommy. So the overall pattern has been so similar on both days that unless Sally and Kitanna are both wolves, which at a guess is unlikely, I'm not sure what can be learned from it divorced of context. It would be interesting to look back over some past games to see if the same pattern gets repeated often.

You mean we should spend hours toDay reading through multiple past games to see if… wait… what will it show, exactly, even if the same pattern does get repeated?

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You mean we should spend hours toDay reading through multiple past games to see if… wait… what will it show, exactly, even if the same pattern does get repeated?

No, I don't. I couldn't find much of interest in the vote placement in the game so far; I just find it interesting that the same pattern happened twice (that is, the pattern, not the specific people placing votes). I wouldn't mind looking up the vote placement in earlier games out of curiosity someday to see if it happens a lot, but it wouldn't be relevant to this game.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's entirely possible that I missed something, but I was under the impression that the Maniac didn't know they were the Maniac. Am I wrong here?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

It's entirely possible that I missed something, but I was under the impression that the Maniac didn't know they were the Maniac. Am I wrong here?

No, Zil changed that.

In other news, I should have said we’re now 6:3, not 5:3– I was leaving myself out and thinking there were only eight players left.

But it would still make it 4:3 toNight if Maniac Kit were to take any innocent with her, and certain defeat if that innocent were the Ranger. Those aren’t great odds.

EDIT: No, we’re 5:3, and there are only eight players– I’d been looking at the Day 3 list instead of Night 3. So back to: *any* innocent killed is fatal.

[Nerwen]

The Kit Situation

We are now 5:3.

1. Kit is a wolf and we lynch her.
We will be 5:2 toNight. The real Maniac and Ranger will be still alive.
1. a.) The Ranger makes a save toNight. We are still 5:2 toMorrow.
1. b.) The Ranger fails the save. We are 4:2 toMorrow.
1. c.) The real Maniac (having kept quiet) is Night-killed, taking down a wolf. We are 4:1 toMorrow.

2. Kit is the Maniac and we lynch her.
1. a) She takes down a wolf. We are 4:2 toNight.
1. b) She takes down an innocent. We are 3:3 toNight, thus dead.

EDIT:fixed numbers.

[Thinlómien]

I believe Kitanna. Unless there is a counter-reveal, it makes sense to assume she's telling the truth. Even if she was a wolf, there would be two more wolves out there for us to lynch toDay. We should absolutely NOT lynch a person who is very likely to be a maniac because that can have catastrophic consequences.

[Coppermirror]

I've looked back through the first two Days, and Kitanna's not one of the people who said they didn't know whether the Maniac was aware of their role or not (Nerwen day 1, Shasta day 3). She didn't make the mistake of thinking the role's kills were totally random (Sally day 1). It's more likely than not that the Maniac would have carefully read their role even if they didn't ask Inzil for clarification about the role's alignment. So I don't think Kitanna's claim is inconsistent with her being the Maniac.

A genuine innocent in danger would have much more reason to come forward as the Maniac toDay than a wolf in danger would to fake reveal. If Kitanna is the Maniac as she says, then if she thought she was in serious danger she would have no choice but to reveal like this, given that if there's a bad lynch toDay, we're sunk unless the Ranger makes a save in the Night or the Maniac is Night killed. Although...judging by the contents of her posts toDay, it seems she didn't realise this? So if she's the Maniac, she didn't factor that in. Still, even revealed, a Maniac is a big asset.

But if Kitanna's a wolf, she's got much less reason to come forward like this even if she thinks she's in a lot of danger. And since she said she had to leave for the night after her post, that would explain why she made the post ASAP rather than waiting until later. Her suggestion that if she isn't believed everyone should vote for her is bizarre, but I can't see what benefit she would get out of it either as an innocent or as a wolf.

I don't know if we should treat Kitanna as innocent for certain, but she's at least someone who shouldn't be lynched toDay on the information we currently have. The risk that she's telling the truth is too high.

[Nerwen]

Ugh! Scratch what I just said– we *are* 5:3! I was looking at the wrong post before. (That’s what I get for trying to work and play WW simultaneously.)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I've looked back through the first two Days, and Kitanna's not one of the people who said they didn't know whether the Maniac was aware of their role or not (Nerwen day 1, Shasta day 3). She didn't make the mistake of thinking the role's kills were totally random (Sally day 1). It's more likely than not that the Maniac would have carefully read their role even if they didn't ask Inzil for clarification about the role's alignment. So I don't think Kitanna's claim is inconsistent with her being the Maniac.

A genuine innocent in danger would have much more reason to come forward as the Maniac toDay than a wolf in danger would to fake reveal. If Kitanna is the Maniac as she says, then if she thought she was in serious danger she would have no choice but to reveal like this, given that if there's a bad lynch toDay, we're sunk unless the Ranger makes a save in the Night or the Maniac is Night killed. Although...judging by the contents of her posts toDay, it seems she didn't realise this? So if she's the Maniac, she didn't factor that in. Still, even revealed, a Maniac is a big asset.

A big asset to whom? If she’s the Maniac, the wolves know not to kill her at Night, while the rest of us still can’t afford to treat her as a known innocent.

But if Kitanna's a wolf, she's got much less reason to come forward like this even if she thinks she's in a lot of danger. And since she said she had to leave for the night after her post, that would explain why she made the post ASAP rather than waiting until later. Her suggestion that if she isn't believed everyone should vote for her is bizarre, but I can't see what benefit she would get out of it either as an innocent or as a wolf.

I don't know if we should treat Kitanna as innocent for certain, but she's at least someone who shouldn't be lynched toDay on the information we currently have. The risk that she's telling the truth is too high.

I concur– but that’s also why this might actually be a rather good move for a wolf under suspicion.

Anyway, I said I was going to do that Lottialysis. I had a whole lot of things come up, but maybe I can find time now.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

A big asset to whom? If she’s the Maniac, the wolves know not to kill her at Night, while the rest of us still can’t afford to treat her as a known innocent.

An unrevealed Maniac is more valuable than a revealed one, increasingly so as the game progresses, but a revealed Maniac certainly beats a lynched Maniac, especially on a day when a bad lynch most likely means the end of the game. That said, I'm not sure that Kitanna really was in the sort of danger she thinks. I need to read over Day 2 again more carefully.

If Kitanna is really the Maniac, and she gets lynched the way she initially suggested, she's more likely to hit an innocent than a wolf. The odds aren't quite as awful as I thought at first glance, but it's still not a good idea.

Not many people have shown up yet toDay, so there's still the possibility of there being a counter-reveal from the real Maniac if Kitanna's a wolf.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

That said, I'm not sure that Kitanna really was in the sort of danger she thinks. I need to read over Day 2 again more carefully.

I was a lynch candidate D1 and D2. I was wrong about Legate. I was wrong about Nog. After that I was unlikely to be mistaken as the seer and killed in the night. It would be easy for the wolves to get me lynched today. I'd say I was in adequate danger.

[Nerwen]

Lottie, Day One

#7. Banter.


#64. Opposes Lommy's suggestion that the Maniac reveal. Finds Greenie's vote “more innocent than not”. Lommy also seems innocent, Legate seems a little suspicious “for no real reason”. Nog seems “mostly fine”. Joking requests that some say something incriminating.


#79. Vote-post (Legate 1)

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'm really not thrilled with any of the options so far. I've still got a bad feeling about Legate, but I don't have anything concrete, and I'm not completely comfortable voting for him. I'd be more comfortable with him than with the other three on the table, though, so...

++Legate

Comments: The wording of that vote-post could well have looked like a Seer making sure no-one would think she had actually dreamed the person she voted. Only… apparently not, since the wolves killed Greenie instead.

Nothing much there otherwise– she only mentioned one still-living person (Lommy), and only in passing.


Lottie, Day Two

#103. Doubts the wolves thought Greenie was the Seer (theory already put forward by Coppermirror at #97 and Lommy at #98); believes she was instead chosen as a safe kill.


#134. Flags Kath's vote-post/suspicion list at #128.

Originally Posted by Lottie

So this caught my eye as being...off. I don't know Kath's playing style very well, but this post of hers came off as being at once flippant - "they are both clearly self preservation votes", "I rather feel lynching sally or Kitanna would give more information" - and, at the same time, almost grasping at suspicions. For one thing, her suspicions about Kit and Sally are flimsy at best, but she phrases them as though they're simple and clean-cut and obvious. She mentions Nog, Nerwen, and Lommy, but doesn't actually say anything about them - basically a "I thought they might be suspicious but I don't know" kind of statement that doesn't do anyone much good. I'm not at all happy with this vote, and Kath has definitely jumped to the top of my list.

#138. Makes a list.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Suspicious About
Kath - I've mentioned my problems with her vote earlier.
Coppermirror - Hasn't posted all that much, but what he has posted has been really non-committal. He voted Sally just because of Greenie's death, which could have been a wolf planning for an easy frame and not expecting the village to pass up the lure.

Unsure About
Nogrod - I don't necessarily suspect him, because he hasn't done anything suspicious, but I definitely don't trust him either.
Boro - He doesn't seem like normal Boro to me, but that might even be a sign of his innocence - he's normally a much more subtle wolf.
Nerwen - I haven't got a real read on her yet, but she certainly hasn't done anything to make me suspicious.
Shasta - I don't have a read on him. Hopefully his schedule will allow for more psychicing toMorrow!
Sally - I feel better about her than not, but I'm not willing to move her down a level just yet.

Feeling Pretty Decent About
Kitanna - I know she's been under some suspicion thus far, but I don't see the reason for it. She looks pretty good to me.
Lommy - She's looked innocent since Day One, which should maybe be worrying, but I'm comfortable with her for now.

Comment: Could this have been taken as a Seer’s list? It might point to either Kitanna and Lommy as innocent, or Kath and Coppermirror as wolves.

After this, she becomes very active in the “Seer-Greenie” debate.


#145.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Originally Posted by Kitanna
You must think me a mighty foolish wolf to so blatantly defend Sally as a packmate.

I don't know if Sally is actually guilty, but I know I'm not. And I don't think Sally is a foolish enough wolf to night kill someone who leads to clearly to her. So I'm not sold on her being guilty right now.
Yes. Yes, that exactly. Everyone keeps insisting that Greenie was a Seer kill, and I don't buy it at all. If she was a Seer kill, it was a dumb move on the wolves' part - if she was a Seer kill, then the wolf would have to be Sally, and we all know that. It's obvious. It would be the most obvious Night kill a wolf could make, and I do not think Sally would have done it. You know what it could have been? An easy frame. I mentioned Cop earlier as potentially having killed Greenie during the Night with the intention of using that death to frame Sally earlier - it looks like that argument could apply to Nog and maybe even Lommy as well.

#146. Emphatically disagrees with Nogrod (who at #147 suggests the kill implicates Sally

Originally Posted by Lottie

Why would the wolves have thought she was a Seer at all? She didn't talk like a Seer. If anything, if she were a Seer, I'd read her vote post as saying in giant neon letters, "I DIDN'T DREAM SALLY THIS IS NOT A DREAM”:

[Quotes Greenie]

"Nothing but a hunch" "I don't feel comfortable voting, but I'd feel less comfortable abstaining" "Flimsy reasoning for a vote, but better than nothing" These are not the things a Seer would say if she had dreamed a wolf. These are things a Seer would say if she wanted to make sure, if she died overNight, no one would think she'd dreamed this person. I in no way find this adequate reason to kill Sally.

#151. (Replying to Nog at #149, #112.)

Originally Posted by Lottie

Making a list is Seerish? Enough to get her killed? I don't think so. Anyway, if she were making a Seer List Post, I think she'd have committed more than just "Something there?". Something there says to me, "That caught my eye. Better watch her" not "SHE'S A WOLF I DReAMED IT". And a Seer trying to cover her knowledge? Right. So what you're saying is, "I know it doesn't look like she looked like a Seer but the wolves thought she was a Seer BECAUSE she didn't look like a Seer you know what I'm saying" and I really do think you're trying to frame Sally at this point, because this is just too weak an argument, especially from you. So...

++Nog

#152. Makes a tally.

And that’s it. Self-evidently, she was wrong about Nogrod. But could she have been right about Sally– i.e. could her heated defence of Sally have been taken as evidence that she’d dreamed her (innocent)? Or were we meant to think that (and something on the list is the real reason)?

EDIT:formatting.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm on my way to work for the day. I haven't had a chance to read a thing, but I'll do so when I return four hours or so before the DL. *poofs*

[Boromir88]

It's going to be another one of those days where I have to vote early...although not as early as the last day.

Thoughts are...I believe Kit's reveal. It's a must to get a wolf today but at least there's still all 3 gifteds to work and I think at this point in the game it is best to have a revealed maniac. It's not ideal but best when we need to get a wolf today.

[Thinlómien]

Before anybody votes (and since I don't know when I will be online toDay), I guess I'm obliged to step in.

I'm the seer.

Nerwen is a wolf.

Shasta is innocent.

Kitanna is indeed the maniac.

If you want clues, go back to my very first post. The very first thing I say is "first things first". I have been following that rule and started every Day by mentioning first the person I just dreamt of (Nerwen on Night1, Shasta on Night2 and Kitanna last Night). I even applied this to my list post yeterDay because I was afraid I was being too vague.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and, not voting yet in case something unexpected happens (remember guys, the last one to get the most votes dies if there's a tie).

[Kitanna]

I'm the seer.

Nerwen is a wolf.

Shasta is innocent.

Kitanna is indeed the maniac.

I was beginning to wonder if you might be the seer because you voted Sally two days in a row and I don't know why a wolf would do that. But you say Nerwen is a wolf, you have put her on all your suspect lists. So either you're trying to fool us or you didn't want the wolves to figure you out right away. Both are logical explanations for not voting Nerwen. I'm going to look over your posts before work to see if I trust your claim. I want to believe because it means you can remove doubt about me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I was beginning to wonder if you might be the seer because you voted Sally two days in a row and I don't know why a wolf would do that. But you say Nerwen is a wolf, you have put her on all your suspect lists. So either you're trying to fool us or you didn't want the wolves to figure you out right away. Both are logical explanations for not voting Nerwen. I'm going to look over your posts before work to see if I trust your claim. I want to believe because it means you can remove doubt about me.

If Sally is actually innocent, I'm probably going to die laughing. I simply thought she looks a lot like a wolf, and I didn't want to draw attention to myself by voting Nerwen on Day1. I also preferred multi-tasking ie. going after different people at Day and Night, so I didn't check Sally on Night2 but instead Shasta. Last Night my choice was between Sally and you, and I thought knowing your role would have been more helpful. Turns out it was the other way around. That being said, I'm not actually so suspicious of Sally anymore. I will need to look at Nerwen's interactions with people later toDay.

[Boromir88]

See as grim as it started there's always payoff when the gifteds aren't lynched and can stay off the wolves radar.

I wish I would have voted for Nerwolf yesterday, but I was only able to base my suspicions off iffy or bad Day 1 votes. Not that it would have made a difference, based on how things went yesterday. My previous post was the first chance I had to get back to the thread since my Day 2 vote. So, I really have no idea who voted for who nor how Nog got lynched.

Just glad we can still manage a win, even though it's unfortunate you, Lommy, had to reveal to give us a wolf and get us to stop lynching eachother.

[Kitanna]

I have twenty minutes before work starts and I'm going to use that time to throw out some theories since I can't reread the thread as I planned.

Sally
I find it funny my opinion of Sally is based entirely on what others have said and how they've interacted with her. Sounds like she's pretty busy with RL so her contribution hasn't been much and both her votes have been self-preservation which is something an innocent and a wolf would do, so it's hard to get much from that.

So with Sally I feel 90-10 about her guilt. Lottie made a point yesterday about Greenie not really dropping hints in her posts, or at least not concrete hints. To me Greenie's death looked like a frame job to set up Sally. She'd already fallen under some suspicion and if her first voter died, she would look very bad indeed. Also I agree with Nerwen about Lottie's death being because she looked seerish, which makes Sally look very good. There's also Lommy's claim, if she is to be believed, if Sally was a wolf I feel that Lommy would have been killed. Hence the 90% she could well be innocent.
The 10% of doubt comes from Greenie's death and the chance it could have been a risk the wolves took and agreed to make Sally a sacrifice. If Greenie was the seer Sally would surely have been lynched yesterday and if she died an ordo (as she did) some would think Sally was framed and some would think Greenie was targeted for voting Sally. Which is how yesterday played out and Sally saved her skin by voting Nog, which again, any player would do. However, Lottie's death makes no sense in this scenario, given how Lottie defended Sally.

Lommy
As for Lommy. It makes sense she would want to fly under the radar as a seer. Drop a few unspecific hints and vote elsewhere. Her posts/hints need to be looked at, so when my break rolls around I'll take a look. I am surprised she voted Sally both days though. I see her logic (once again flying under the wolf radar), but I can't remember her reasoning yesterday for voting Sally. I know on D1 she said she didn't want to spread the votes out too much and I believe yesterday she was on the same page as Nog with suspects, which is probably why she voted Sally again. So she votes Sally twice, which to the wolves would look like a misguided innocent. But if she is a wolf she could be trying to throw a packmate under the bus to look good or she's trying to destroy an innocent who has garnered a lot of attention. The wolf scenario seems unlikely, seems a bit risky for a D1 vote, less so on D2 though.

[Boromir88]

I don't have anymore time to be of more use today. All I can say is even if there are counter reveals to Lommy and Kit I would bet their fake. Based on how the lynches and days have gone, if Lommy and/or Kit were wolves there is no reason or need they would try this scheme to false reveal at the start of the day.

++Nerwen

[Kitanna]

Day 1

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Okay, now that I got it off my chest, I'm off to business. What business, you may ask, as there's been nothing but banter and Nerwen jokingly reviving the tradition of suspecting those who post first.

So let me make a couple of predictions about how the Day1 will proceed after this utterly typical beginning:

Nerwen will miss the vote.
Kath will miss the entire Day.
Legate will get into posting novel-length stuff by the deadline.
Loslote (or Kitanna) will be lynched.
Nogrod will be uncharacteristically quiet (okay, you can't really credit me with being a psychic if I get this right, I happen to know he has a busy day in RL).
Speaking of psychics, Shasta will use half of his posts for praising Nerwen (and vice versa, but he always seems to be the one to start).

I'm not sure what to make of Boro's and Nogrod's underlined worry about wolves posing as the maniac. How do you do that except by fake revealing anyway? (And I see that as possibly being more beneficial to the villagers in the long run

I might follow Greenie's vote on Sally (I seem to have noticed that Sally has this "friendly and reasonable" vibe whenever she's guilty and there's a bit of that now), or Nerwen, who also just seems a bit wrong somehow, like detached.

Votes Sally

Day 2

Only one post and it' almost 7 hours into Day2? Come on people. (I'm especially looking at you, Shasta.)

I think Greenie at least had the sort of quiet and sensible tone that often gives away gifteds (even though ordos who are not the type to intentionally stir the pot or stream of consciousness post *coughyourstrulycough* might often give that vibe too.)***

Yeah, although I'm not sure both Sally and Nerwen are wolves, if yes, they are quite bold, or Nerwen at least is quite bold.

If Sally, Kitanna and Nerwen are the wolves I'm likely to die of laughter.

Innocentish
Shasta - well he still needs to contribute and I really hate to use this kind of an argument, but I think he'd be more involved if he was a wolf.
Nogrod - I was a bit wary of him yesterDay but he seems better toDay, possibly because I can relate to his frustration about people being so quiet.
Kath - she's always a hard one to read early on, but I'm not too worried atm.
Copper - somehow manages to be under my radar. I don't like that, but I'm not particularily suspicious either.

Suspiciousish
Nerwen - well I don't like this whole Nerwen-Sally-Kitanna business, and Nerwen's floating around in the voting last night looks a bit fishy.
Sally - I keep flip-flopping on her, like whether I'm paranoid in thinking she acts like wolf!Sally or not, but I'm leaning guilty.
Kitanna - is quite defensive, and her interactions with the people mentioned above are fishy; there must be something going on with this trio. Still, Kitanna is probably the least suspicious of the three.
Lottie - I think I might just suspect here because others do so too, though.
Boro - something about him rubs me the wrong way. I mean, I agree with a lot of what he says, but since I suspect Sally and/or Nerwen it made me raise my eyebrows quite a bit that he suspected them quite vocally and then ended up voting Lottie.

that given Greenie's death and yesterDay's vote, we should look really hard at Sally. I have yet to see a better lynch option for toDay, however much my gut-feeling keeps flip-flopping on her.

Which is something I haven't really considered - it suddenly makes it a lot less risky for wolf-on-wolf voting in the last minutes if the situation is even enough and the voted wolf hasn't still voted herself. I might or might not be talking about Nerwen and Sally.

Votes Sally again

These are the selected writings of Lommy. I picked these because they listed her suspects/made mention of her dreams. She was consistent from D1 that Nerwen felt wrong. She was very, very careful in how she accused Nerwen. Lots of gut-feelings and throwing Nerwen's name in with mine or Sally's, but almost never Nerwen alone.

***I bolded this quote because it looks very much to me like Lommy trying to distance herself from having a gifted role. "Look I'm an ordo who plays in such a way to attract attention for being gifted..."

All this makes me feel Lommy is most probably not lying. And if she is I will retire from WW having been fooled so thoroughly.

[Kitanna]

So...just me in the village right now?

I don't have as much time to go back right now as I would like, but I'll have more time when my lunch break rolls around in a few hours. So, just some thoughts to break up the silence.

Yesterday I said Cop never really committed to any suspects, except for who she votes for. Today she gives us the vote count and some thoughts on the tie-breaking votes that occurred both days

So the overall pattern has been so similar on both days that unless Sally and Kitanna are both wolves, which at a guess is unlikely, I'm not sure what can be learned from it divorced of context. It would be interesting to look back over some past games to see if the same pattern gets repeated often.

And...I see as I write this that Kitanna's just revealed as a possible Maniac.

Also talks about going back some day looking over old games to see if a similar pattern ever occurred. She said this was just out of sheer interest, but the comment seems weird, though not especially nefarious. Just sort of pointless.

She questions my reveal most logically though. Which is good I think, given that blind faith can be very alarming and seen easily as a wolf piggy backing on a gifted reveal.

Her suggestion that if she isn't believed everyone should vote for her is bizarre, but I can't see what benefit she would get out of it either as an innocent or as a wolf.

To clarify hen I looked at the numbers I only looked at them as far as the end of today. I never factored in the night kill and the resulting lost innocent. I only thought on the possibility that lynching me could get us a wolf, not the doom that could follow if I took down an innocent.

It doesn't look like Cop has been back since Lommy's reveal.

My opinion of Cop remains pretty much the same as yesterday. Somewhat suspicious, but not enough to warrant a vote at this time. We'll see what happens later...

Boro is another mystery to me. He's clever, especially as a wolf. Yesterday I said a wolf Boro could want to make a kill that didn't link him to the victim in a seerish way. Greenie didn't really suspect him, so that's a good kill. Lottie I don't think really had an opinion of him either.

Boro is also quick to believe both Lommy and I. Wishful thinking of an innocent? Or a piggy backing wolf? He's a crafty one and I've seen him do some pretty astounding things as a wolf. Like Sally though, he is pretty absent due to RL and it makes it harder for me to form a solid opinion since he's not really around.

If Lommy is telling the truth Shasta is innocent. And honestly, if she's lying I'd think he was innocent anyway after his vote yesterday.

That leaves Kath. We have a pretty busy village as far as RL goes. So her lack of posting doesn't bother me, but she has barely registered on anyone's radar. She's just this submarine, popping in, offering some opinions, voting, and gone. And she missed D1 vote, so we have only D2 vote. On lunch I'll look at her posts for a clue.

[Kitanna]

Kath
Her first post was agreeing with Legate's assessment of the maniac role. And to prove Lommy's prediction wrong. And that's it for D1.

D2 her first post was "here and reading." Second post was summing up D1. Her third post analyzes Greenie's posts.

Nerwen and Lommy are the names that came up here so keep an eye on them toDay I suppose.

Her next post is mostly more summaries. She offers a few comments outside of her summary.

Cop - feels Greenie was a trailless kill. Could be, though I think the maniac discussion was probably involved.

(About Boro)Doesn't like Nog's vote as he doesn't get the reasoning. I see where Nog got the reasoning from, so this didn't strike me as oddly as it does Boro.

(Also in referral to Boro)Says Kitanna and sally voted in the interest of self preservation. And yes, they did, but neither of them made that clear which was odd. Votes Lottie based on his earlier reasoning.

Then her vote post.

From yesterDay, I think Kitanna and sally's votes are suspicious. They are both clearly self preservation votes and this is acceptable as an innocent, and understandable as a wolf. What I find odd is that neither of them actually admitted to that.

That Nog changed his suspicions through the Day made me feel happier about my early wonderings about him.

From my look at Greenie I think Lommy and Nerwen bear watching, but neither has leapt out as suspicious toDay to me.

So if Kath is a wolf she could have been using Nerwen to make herself look good, but saying she saw her suspicious. Then if Nerwen was lynched and died a wolf, Kath would have that slight suspicion on record. The same could be said to be true if Sally died a wolf.
She ended up voting me.

Also interesting to note is something Lottie said that I missed

So this caught my eye as being...off. I don't know Kath's playing style very well, but this post of hers came off as being at once flippant - "they are both clearly self preservation votes", "I rather feel lynching sally or Kitanna would give more information" - and, at the same time, almost grasping at suspicions. For one thing, her suspicions about Kit and Sally are flimsy at best, but she phrases them as though they're simple and clean-cut and obvious. She mentions Nog, Nerwen, and Lommy, but doesn't actually say anything about them - basically a "I thought they might be suspicious but I don't know" kind of statement that doesn't do anyone much good. I'm not at all happy with this vote, and Kath has definitely jumped to the top of my list.

If the wolves thought Lottie was seer based on her defense of Sally, I wonder if they noticed this and thought perhaps Lottie had dreamt Kath as well?

There's not a whole lot to say about Kath otherwise.

[Kath]

I have an extremely fragile net connection (first time I've managed to get a connection at all today!) so I am going to vote right now.

As there have been no counter reveals to either Lommy or Kitanna, and I think everyone has now posted, I am happy to believe both.

Therefore:
++Nerwen

Lommy-Seer says she's a wolf then she's a wolf.

If Lommy and Kitanna are actual a wolf pack then I take my hat off to them!

[Thinlómien]

(leaving out myself, Kitanna and Shasta, as well as the dead, for obvious reasons)

~*~

Nerwen and Boro

Day 1 - Nerwen jokingly points out the rule of three would condemn Boro. Discussion about Nerwen's broken banter link.

Day 2 - Boro starts the Day by saying that not only Sally's but also Nerwen's actions before the DL on Day1 look fishy. He mentions her in a voting recap. Then he mentions again that her vote did not sit right with him and that it's unlikely she and Sally are in cahoots. (At this point, I personally found it weird he voted Lottie not Nerwen, because he had been talking about Nerwen being suspicious from the beginning of the Day.) Nerwen retaliates by pointing out various illogical/fishy things Boro has said on the same Day.

Day 3 - after my reveal, Boro says he wishes he had voted Nerwen the Day before and votes her now.

Thoughts: Like I said above, I find it a little fishy that Boro didn't go for Nerwen on Day2 even though she seemed like his main suspect until he decided that Lottie's vote the Day before looked worse after all. They don't still do each other much favours on Day2, but that hardly tells us anything as both of them are capable of much more dramatic wolf-on-wolf backstabbing.

~*~

Nerwen and Cop

Day 1 - Nerwen points out the rule of three would condemn Cop. They banter. In a list post, Cop says there's not much to go on on Nerwen and files her under "no idea about".

Day 2 - Cop says it's unlikely Nerwen is packmates with Sally because she defended her so openly.

Day 3 - Discussion about voting patterns, and a longer discussion about Kitanna's maniac reveal.

Thoughts: There is a lot of easy chatter between the two, as if they were on especially amiable terms, for example chatting with each other during Night phases and simply continuing that on the thread. (Before you say this sounds far-fetched, I say it's happened before.) It could of course just be normal chatter between two people who get along (possibly because Nerwen's trying to buddy up with Cop) and/or happen to be around at the same time when not so many others are.

~*~

Nerwen and Sally

Day 1 - Nerwen jokingly points out the rule of three would condemn Sally. Sally half-seriously encourages Nerwen to break her track record of not voting on Day1. Nerwen wonders why Sally has two votes and Sally points the finger at me and Greenie. Nerwen would rather not see Sally lynched and ergo votes Kitanna. Sally makes fun of her not formatting the vote right.

Day 2 - Nerwen basically says that Greenie's death points at Sally, but doesn't. Suggests Sally was framed.

Day 3 - nothing yet.

Thoughts: what the mordor?? This makes me more confused than anything else. Either Nerwen is artfully latching onto innocent Sally to a) make herself look better if Sally dies and is discovered innocent or b) make Sally look suspicious if Nerwen herself dies and is discovered guilty, or then these are two wolves hiding out in the open. I'm almost more inclined to think the first option is true.

~*~

Nerwen and Kath

Day 1 - Nerwen expresses shock about Kath being active on Day1.

Day 2 - In a voting recap, Kath says about Nerwen: "Nerwen --> Kitanna ~ Potentially pushing for the maniac to join the wolves." Kath, can you clarify what you mean by this comment? Kath also concludes that Greenie's death points at Nerwen but doesn't really explain why and says that she became suddenly defensive on Day2.

Day 3 - Kath believes my reveal and votes for Nerwen.

Thoughts: hmmm, interesting. Nerwen says practically nothing about Kath. Kath throws very vague suspicion at Nerwen's direction, but definitely doesn't act on it. Looks fishy to me all in all - but no one says this can't be coincidence.

~*~

next up: a look on Lottie's death

[Thinlómien]

Last Night, the wolves must have been pretty desperate to get the seer (a big at you) because without an effective seer reveal, they would have been close to a victory. Therefore, I'm going to assume Lottie was killed because they thoughts she was the seer.

Lottie's possible Night 1 dreams based on Day1 posts
Me = innocent -> works because I was in her innocent category on Day2 and she made a point of saying that I have looked innocent since Day1
Greenie = innocent -> works because she died before Lottie could say more about her
Nog = innocent (this is a stretch though) -> disproved by her vote on Day2
Legate = guilty -> can't be because he was an ordo

Lottie's possible Night 2 dreams based on Day2 posts
Kath = guilty
Cop = guilty
Kitanna = innocent
All of these work in relation to Lottie's list on Day2. She defends Kitanna in a way that the wolves could have seen as the seer protecting a known innocent, but I think it's more likely that their interest was piqued by what she said about Kath or Cop (why else would Lottie stand out to the wolves?). In this regard, Kath looks a little worse than Cop because:

Originally Posted by Lottie in her first post on Day2 where she actually discusses living people; bolding mine

So this caught my eye as being...off. I don't know Kath's playing style very well, but this post of hers came off as being at once flippant - "they are both clearly self preservation votes", "I rather feel lynching sally or Kitanna would give more information" - and, at the same time, almost grasping at suspicions. For one thing, her suspicions about Kit and Sally are flimsy at best, but she phrases them as though they're simple and clean-cut and obvious. She mentions Nog, Nerwen, and Lommy, but doesn't actually say anything about them - basically a "I thought they might be suspicious but I don't know" kind of statement that doesn't do anyone much good. I'm not at all happy with this vote, and Kath has definitely jumped to the top of my list.

So, I think the wolves could have seen Lottie as a potential seer who dreamed of innocent!me (or innocent!Greenie) on Night 1 and guilty!Kath (or guilty!Cop - or even innocent!Kit) on Night2.

The fact that Nerwen's lottielysis toDay interprets her posts so that she dreamed of innocent Kitanna makes me more certain that either Kath or Cop has to be guilty, or possibly even both - why else would Nerwolf pass such an obvious opportunity to cast suspicion on them?

[Thinlómien]

In conclusion:

Kath and Cop look pretty bad at the moment.

Boro could just as well be guilty as innocent.

Sally actually probably looks the best out of the four at the moment. If she is innocent, I want to offer my most cordial thanks for unwittingly acting as my shield.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If she is innocent, I want to offer my most cordial thanks for unwittingly acting as my shield.

You're welcome, peaches. <3

I'm back (more or less) and have caught up (more or less).

I see no reason to doubt Lommy's reveal at this point; despite her odd suspicion of me Day 1, I found her pretty innocent throughout. I suspected up front that Kit's trust in me was a result of either her really playing me or some sort of good role, so to find she's the maniac is not at all a shock. Nerwen is, of course, always evil.

++Nerwen

Now that the vote is out of the way, I'll take a look at the unknowns in the group. Hopefully I'll be back in a short while with some equally short thoughts.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I suspected up front that Kit's trust in me was a result of either her really playing me or some sort of good role, so to find she's the maniac is not at all a shock. Nerwen is, of course, always evil.

I think this is the first time in our long WW history I have not assumed you're evil and worked to get you lynched. Or been a wolf myself and worked to get you lynched. And if you do happen to be evil this game I know I need to continue to work at getting you lynched. <3

++Nerwen

It is a beautiful day and I am going to enjoy a walk on my lunch break and I really don't have anything to say that I haven't said already. I may pop in again before Day ends, but it's unlikely since I am not going home after work until after DL.

[Thinlómien]

I need to go to sleep now, so

++Nerwen

If she decides to counter reveal and anybody believes her even a tiny bit, do a little maths and you'll see that if I was a wolf, it would have made zero sense for me to fake reveal toDay (the decisive Day is only toMorrow and I would be certain to get lynched then) - unless I was in cahoots with Nerwen herself (which still supports lynching her toDay) and that would've been quite an unnecessary plot as if the village would mislynch toDay there would be a huge chance of wolf victory toMorrow (only one innocent votes wrong and that's it) whereas now we would be just prolonging the game, perhaps fatally for the baddies, as it would be very suspicious if I didn't die soon.

(Now I'm lost in what if scenarios. Imagine if Nerwen, Kitanna and I were the wolves and we had orchestrated all of this. It would have been so epic I almost wish that was the case. )

Okay, going now. May we all have sweet dreams.


PS. If there's an unforeseen misfortune and I die toNight, please please look carefully at Nerwen's interactions with people and Lottie's death, my posts toDay are a good place to start.

[Nerwen]

Aw Lommy, you double-crossing penguin, why are you doing this to me? I thought we agreed last Night I was going to impersonate the Seer and you were going to be lynched! Meanie!

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading.

[Coppermirror]

It doesn't look as if Shasta's been back since Lommy's seer-reveal, so there's a chance that he could be the Seer, but it's unlikely: a Lommy wolf would have had to be taking an insane risk that he wouldn't happen to come by, unless she knew something about his schedule. Plus, this sort of plan from the wolves on a day with a 5:3 count doesn't make sense. If it turns out to be some sort of amazing gambit from Lommy and Kitanna, and Nerwen at #196 is a peeved innocent trying to add suspense, I'll be very impressed.

So the remaining wolves are two of Boro, Kath, and Sally. Boro and Sally have at least posted a reasonable amount. Kath, not so much.

It looks as if my vote isn't needed, but I'll still place it.

++Nerwen

[Inziladun]

After the discouraging time the group had spent thus far atop the lonely windswept peak, this day had possibly brought some good news.
Kitanna had initially startled them by saying she was a maniac.
'Not dangerous. Well maybe a little. Actually, mostly harmless,' she was quick to add. 'I just get carried away sometimes.'

But that had nearly been forgotten when Lommy had announced she had been having dreams involving them all.
'I know two who are innocent,' she said. 'Shasta for one, and Kitanna really is a maniac, but she hasn't been doing anything to anyone. However, I know Nerwen is one of these awful people trying to take us out!'

It was recalled that Professor Inzil's notes on RADAGAST had mentioned that those with evil thoughts had become dogs. Now they would see.

Protesting only mildly, Nerwen was forced into the machine. A press of a button, and eager eyes awaited the result.
There, on the floor, was indeed a dog.

The "Living"
Sally
Coppermirror
Kitanna
Lommy
Shasta
Kath
Boro

The "Dead"
Professor Inzil
Legate (Ordo)
Greenie (Ordo)
Nogrod (Ordo)
Loslote (Ordo)
Nerwen (Moviephile)

IT IS NIGHT 4.

Dreamer, Guardian, and Moviephiles get busy.

[Inziladun]

The dark skies above the facility were fitfully illuminated by the bright, full moon peeking through breaks in the high clouds.
Inside, most of the trapped inhabitants lay fitfully sleeping. Three of their number did not sleep.
Two figures walked silently, purposefully toward their intended target, one with a small vial of liquid in hand. They did not feel the eyes upon them, straining to keep them in sight through the shadow, nor did they notice footfalls behind them at a respectful distance.
As they reached their victim they stopped short, savoring the moment. The vial was opened, a hand began to tip it.
Suddenly, a silver ball flashed through the air and struck the back of the second figure. A stifled cry of surprise was voiced, and the first quickly secured the vial. Both ran off into the darkness.
The firer of the ball nodded in approval at the way the improvised slingshot had worked. It was amazing what one could do with a paper clip, a rubber band, and a ball bearing.
Heading back to bed, two of the group were bitterly disappointed, another quite satisfied.

The "Living"
Sally
Coppermirror
Kitanna
Lommy
Shasta
Kath
Boro

The "Dead"
Professor Inzil
Legate (Ordo)
Greenie (Ordo)
Nogrod (Ordo)
Loslote (Ordo)
Nerwen (Moviephile)


IT IS DAY 4