TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Mirandir]

If anything else is said about the meta game I'm modfiring everyone who brings it up. Seriously. META GAME HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WEREWOLF.

[Inziladun]

Blast it.

Morsul's defensiveness seemed as if it could be genuine frustration. I don't think I can go for him just now.

Hakon either, though I can understand Sally's vote for him, I think. Lari's looks a little worse to me, but I don't want to vote for her. She says she doesn't feel well, so I'll let it go. Hope you feel better.

I don't think I want on the Morsul or SPM trains just now.
Pitch's vote for Boro was sudden, and his reasoning for it was what didn't appear to me to be a very serious suspicion against Sally.

So it's

++ Pitch

[Morsul the Dark]

META........Morphise into a butterfly

Please don't modfire me...

I'd like to point out while a lot of people are Mentioning it only one person seems to be Using it...at least Obviously and overthetop

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Nog hasn't stood out to me much thus far, but his vote for McCaber did appear to be less well reasoned than I might expect from him.

If feeling like he doesn't have strong suspicions he typically does go for one of the submarines on Day 1, and McCaber was one of the better choices (in my opinion...I've considered it).

But it is suspicious that he didn't follow up a vote for Greenie after pretty much calling her the bear. Maybe he didn't think there would be much support, but how many people did he think would vote McCaber?

[Brinniel]

++Loslote

I still find her vote for Morsul very opportunistic.

[Boromir88]

Hell if I know what to do...Morsul's 158 has me doubting about voting him.

Hakon shouldn't be lynched solely because he made some people mad.

I'm tempting a vote for Lari because of it, but that would be a waste today. Check her more out tomorrow.

++Morsul

Edit: crossed with Brinn's vote.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++Morsul

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

META........Morphise into a butterfly

Please don't modfire me...

I'd like to point out while a lot of people are Mentioning it only one person seems to be Using it...at least Obviously and overthetop

Okay, so I've calmed down slightly. Modfiring will only occur if people continue to use it as reasons why someone might be a certain role. As has been stated multiple times before, roles were randomly chosen (go ahead and ask my roommate if you don't believe me) and as such there is no rhyme or reason for who has what role.

[Mirandir]

Deadline! Day 1 is over. Night shall now commence. People who need to, send in your picks.

[Mirandir]

Oh yeah, Morsul is the Hunter.

[Nienna]

Mira needs 5 more minutes to finish the narration. We apologize.

[Mirandir]

Hakon, being fearful of this group of people and what might happen to him decided to spend his night in an inaccessible room on the fourth floor. He then proceeded to lock himself in so that he could have a nice and peaceful sleep. He spent the time dreaming innocent dreams and then woke up suddenly while he was being strangled. While suffocating and dying he spent the time trying to figure out how this killer could possibly have gotten into his room.

----------

The bear licked his chops before turning to leave the room. Getting in would have been quite the struggle for a normal person, considering all the locks on the door, but a quick swipe of a clawed paw had taken care of that. He was heading back to his own room to catch a few more zzz's before morning came but was ambushed in the hallway by four figures.

"Oh...hi guys," the bear said nervously backing into a corner. Upon examining the motion, that probably hadn't been the best of life choices.

"Oh, it's you," the leader of the pack said, mildly surprised. "Guess we'll be taking care of the village on our own then."

"Thanks for killing the Seer for us," one of his packmates snickered. "We really appreciate it."

"Yeah, anytime," the bear grinned meekly, casting a wary glance at the very sharp claws the wolves had chosen to display.

"You die now!" One of the wolves was apparently quite happy with the prospect.

"Oh crap." With that, a flash of wolfish teeth and claws flew into the air and attacked the bear.

---------------

Morning dawns and everyone awakes. They start a fire to make breakfast and the smoke pours into the kitchen instead of out of the chimney.

Fea complained “Who did not open the flue?”

McCaber responded “It was definitely open.”

“What could be the problem then?” chimed in Greenie.

Zil gave a deep sigh and said “I’ll go look.”

He climbed up the stairs to the next fireplace where the chimney comes through… “The blockage isn’t here” he yelled down. This process was repeated until he found the shredded remains of Hakon's door. "I think I might have found the problem!"

Upon entering the room, the group found obvious signs of a struggle. Pillow feathers were strewn across the room haphazardly, and the blankets on the bed were rumpled on the floor. But, there was no blood.

"Well this is strange..." Lari comments, looking around. Nods of agreement follow her statement.

It wasn't long before Sauce spotted a pair of legs sticking out of the fireplace. "I think we just found Hakon."

They pulled him out and discovered the obvious signs of strangulation.

"Guess people really are going to die..." wilwa commented. Silence fell again.

"Is anybody else missing?" Roa asked, looking around. "Wait, where's Boro?"

After confirming that no one had seen the man in question yet that day, they headed down the corridor towards his room. Before they turned the corner, however, a gruesome sight met their eyes.

There was Boro, lying in a pool of his own blood. The source of the spill was quite obvious. His neck had been severed almost completely through.

"It's like Harry Potter..." Lari whispered. Everyone opted to ignore her.

Upon closer examination, they found patches of fur and a bear's ear still on Boro's body.

"He was the bear? Who knew?" Nog said. "Well, I guess the wolves did us a favor then..." That knowledge was little comfort to the mourning group.

[Mirandir]

Okay official apology from moddess time... I massively slacked on the narration writing (hence why Morsul's still isn't done) and massively underestimated the amount of time it was going to take to do Boro's. I apologize, my good people, and hope dearly that you can forgive your loyal moddess.

The Dead:
Mira - moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1
Nienna - co-moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1
Morsul - Hunter, lynched Day 1
Hakon - Seer, suffocated and stuck up chimney Night 2
Boro - werebear, throat slit Night 2

The Living:
Brinn
Fea
Greenie
Inzil
Lari
Loslote
McCaber
Nerwen
Nog
Pitchwife
Roa
sally
Saucepan Man
wilwa

IT IS NOW DAY 2.

[satansaloser2005]

Yay Spark notes!

Yay dead bear!

Boo dead seer.



That is all. I'm going to bed. I'll do my best to look at Hakon's posts in the morning, kthnx.

[McCaber]

So we traded a seer for the Wererangutan. That's not really a deal I'd prefer making, as we still have four(!) wolves to deal with. At least there's only one kill a night now.

I'll take a look at Hakon's posts again, and see if I can find any dream hints in there.

EDIT: crossed with sally who said much the same as myself.

[Lariren Shadow]

So the last night kills are half yay and half boo! Yay werebear dead! Boo seer dead.

As for Hakon posts...the only thing I see is where he mentioned who would be "made evil" by the Moddess and he lists Boro as one of them. Fea and Sally are the others.

That's all that stood out to me.

I'm now going to bed.

[Roa_Aoife]

Hakon

In his first post, he says not to discuss the bear, and "tells the seer" to dream of the bear. In his second post, he lists the possible bear candidates from his point of view, including Bearomir. In his third post, he clarifies the timeline given by Morsul. Lastly, he votes Morsul.

From this, I believe (though I am in no way certain) that Hakon dreamed Bearomir, then tried to leave the necessary hints without giving himself away.

That's my interpretation, anyways. I can't be sure, because very little of Hakon's actions make sense to me. But we know who killed Hakon, because he's dead too. I think we ought to give more weight to examining Bearomir's death and the Morsul bandwagon's 3 surviving members.

Which I'll get to in the morning after class. Goodnight all.


And to make sure we have no confusion, the count is now:

4 wolves
1 cobbler
2 lovers
1 ranger
6 innocents

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

So we traded a seer for the Wererangutan. That's not really a deal I'd prefer making, as we still have four(!) wolves to deal with. At least there's only one kill a night now.

Which almost makes it worth it– so thanks, Wolves! We owe you!

Having looked at Hakon's posts, I agree with Roa and Lari that he probably dreamed Bearomir– and if not, he gave no hints of who he did dream. However, since he didn't say much, believe I'll give his posts in full.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

Which, I suppose, is exactly what he did.

Originally Posted by Hakon

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

Quite amusing: it seems that he used invalid meta-game reasoning, and guess what? It gave him the Bear!

I think we can dismiss his mention of Fea and Sally, since he speaks of them as possible Bear-candidates, and whatever they are, they're not Bears. (*applause* Thank you, Captain Nerwen Obvious!)

Then he explains Morsul's reasoning on the "time-limit".

Then he votes Morsul:

Originally Posted by Hakon

++Morsul

I will not mention half my reasons for this vote since half are meta data. Half are not. The half that are not are pretty clear. They have been mentioned and I feel no need to repeated them in this post. I am out for the night although if I have still not finished school work I will pop on around DL and see who we lynched and what their role is.

Here, I think, we have the explanation for why on Earth Hakon would vote Morsul if he had already bagged a villain. In Hakon's view, meta-reasoning had already served him well on more than one occasion (note his mention of Saucepan Wolf in the last game) and he started putting too much faith in it.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

That's my interpretation, anyways. I can't be sure, because very little of Hakon's actions make sense to me. But we know who killed Hakon, because he's dead too. I think we ought to give more weight to examining Bearomir's death and the Morsul bandwagon's 3 surviving members.

Agreed. I'll look at them now myself.

I wonder if the wolves had guessed who it was they were killing? Reading through yesterDay, I started to think Boro might be the Bear. I say this, not to congratulate myself, but because if I picked him out the wolves might have too, and in that case killing him implies wolves who are cautious and unwilling to gamble.

[Pitchwife]

Anybody around? I don't have much time this Morning, so just a few thoughts before I'm off to work.
Boro did talk a lot about the Bear yesterDay (hiding in the open), especially about setting the Bear and the Wolves against each other. If the wolves identified him because of that, they may have read his statements as a declaration of war and decided to get rid of him before he became a threat.
I concur with Nerwen's analysis of Hakon's posts. With hindsight, Hakon talked quite a bit about the Seer, when he wasn't busy with meta-reasoning, so Boro may have guessed that Hakon had dreamed him. But with both of them dead, this question is now rather academic.
À propos Hakon - fulfilling Nog's prophecy, I'm now indeed suspecting those who voted him, i. e. sally and Lari. Not for the vote per se, which is understandable in a way (as I said yesterDay, I was briefly tempted to vote him myself), but both have up to now shown a detached, can't-really-be-bothered attitude which, combined with voting an easy victim, I find more than slightly unnerving.
Among the Morsul voters, I'd say SpM had the most reason to vote him, while both Lottie's and Fea's votes seem more opportunistic.
Other votes:
Greenie for Nog - hardly surprising, as suspecting each other seems a family tradition with them.
Nog for McCaber - well, a little bit out of the blue, but consistent with his tendency to go for the subs (why McCaber, though, rather than any other?).
Me for Boro - actually rather an impromptu reaction to something that jumped out at me and seemed slightly furry than a thoroughly thought-out case, but a lucky one, as it turns out.
Zil for me - not quite undeserved, as my reason for voting Boro was rather weak indeed.
Brinn for Lottie - for opportunism in voting Morsul; can't fault her for it.
Have to be off to work now, see you all later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Phew! Given Morsul’s vote yesterday and the absence of narrative, I was wondering for a while there whether he might have taken me with him. I guess that he had not nominated a target before he was lynched.

My preliminary thoughts on the overNight kills are much as others have stated. It looks like Hakon may have dreamed of Boro and that Boro picked up on this. I am not sure whether the Wolves spotted Boro as the Bear. He did refer to the Bear quite a lot, but then so did others (including me). If they did spot him, then Nerwen’s point is a good one. It suggests that they are a cautious bunch. However, it is quite possible that they did not spot him and so it is worth considering why else they may have targeted him. More thoughts on this, and on the voting, coming up.

In the meantime - Roa, I am not going to spend much time toDay rehashing our, erm, discussions of yesterDay. However, I would make the point that I did not ‘back off’ from you yesterDay, or not at least in the sense that you imply. My suspicions of you were by no means conclusive in my mind and I made clear that I was reserving judgment. Pitch made the reasonable point that our interaction could well be one of those clashes of vocal innocents and, on reflection, I thought that this could well be the case, particularly since, as the Day wore on, your approach, while frustrating, looked less to me the behaviour of a Wolf and more that of a single-minded (and misguided) innocent. Your vote for me reinforces my view in that regard, as there was a reasonable prospect that I might be lynched and, if I was, then that would have reflected badly on you.

I will be around intermittently toDay, so I’ll be back in a while with some analysis.

[A Little Green]

I'm here! First off, a little (green) flood of comments on first yesterDay, then toDay.

Originally Posted by Roa

Greenie has voted for Nogrod. From what I can tell it's because he suspected her, even though it's been stated that he always does. It seems off to me, somehow, but then as I said, I'm pointedly ignoring Nogrod so I don't do the same.

I stated my reasons for voting him yesterDay. I'll state them again now since it seems I wasn't as clear as I could have been. It was not because he suspected me. It was because he made weak reasons sound big and because he suspected people who had been voiced some suspicion of, which stank of wolf. Like I've said before, it's possible that he just found the same people suspicious as some others. It is also possible that he's evil and wants to increase suspicion on those who already have some.

Originally Posted by Nog

Going against my conscience & will and voting for Greenie who I suspected and who retaliated like she just tried to get out of that with the "retaliatory move".

I'm suspicious because I retaliated with a retaliatory move? How can you retaliate without a retaliatory move? Could you clarify, please, I have no idea what you are talking about.

Originally Posted by SpM

I am suspicious of Greenie because of some of her playful commments like her being "caught" as a wolf, and in #23 when she feels like she wants to do a list but won't because of the # of people who haven't posted (what about those who had?)

The playful comments were a joke. Period. As for not making a list, I think I said (and if I didn't I'm sorry and embarrassed because I meant to) that I had next to nothing to say of the ones who had. Therefore, the list would have been labelling everyone either as "not showed up" or "no idea" which struck me as pointless.

Originally Posted by Loslote, to Morsul

Okay, that's suspicious. You didn't have time to do your own analysis? Then vote who seems the most suspicious to you, but don't vote because other people give good points against them! This may be a perfectly reasonable vote, and you could even be right (although I don't think so) but that reasoning just made me even more sure of my vote.

I agree it's no good to trust what others say instead of thinking for yourself. But if someone gives a good argument against someone else, it is going to sway at least my opinion. And that, I think, is kind of the point - why share your suspicions if not to convince others that you're right? If no one was ever swayed by someone else's arguments, there would be no point in argumenting in the first place.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Does Greenie always vote Nog on Day One? I'm getting the sense of déjà vu here...

Not always. Often.

Originally Posted by Boro

But it is suspicious that he didn't follow up a vote for Greenie after pretty much calling her the bear. Maybe he didn't think there would be much support, but how many people did he think would vote McCaber?

All right, while bearing in mind that this statement came from the Bear (yay what a sentence!), it's still a valid point I meant to bring up myself. He seemed convinced I was the Werebear. Why didn't he vote for me? An innocent who thinks he has found a baddie doesn't go and vote for some random submarine instead. I don't know how voting McCaber would have benefitted a wolf-Nog, but even less why an innocent Nog would have done that if he believed in what he himself had said (and an innocent doesn't have much cause to say something he doesn't believe himself - unless it's some ploy (eurgh)).

Originally Posted by SpM

Phew! Given Morsul’s vote yesterday and the absence of narrative, I was wondering for a while there whether he might have taken me with him. I guess that he had not nominated a target before he was lynched.

I think the rules say the hunter can only kill if attacked at Night.

Okay. I can't decide if we're well off now or not. On one hand, the bear is dead which means that there'll only be one kill per Night from now on, which is cool. (Tremble, Nerwen, it looks as if your position as the village Captain Obvious was in danger!) On the other hand, we've lost the Seer, and our wolves must be rather happy right now. They've rid themselves of the Seer, the Bear, and the Hunter during one Day and Night.

I'll be around every now and then until my voting time, I have some school stuff to attend to but I'll try to pop up as often as I can.


EDIT: bolding

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Originally Posted by SpM
I am suspicious of Greenie because of some of her playful commments like her being "caught" as a wolf, and in #23 when she feels like she wants to do a list but won't because of the # of people who haven't posted (what about those who had?)

Eh? It wasn’t me who said that …

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I think the rules say the hunter can only kill if attacked at Night.

Doh! You mean I was worried for nothing …

*Note to self – be sure to read rules properly*

For ease of reference, here’s the Day 1 voting record:

Greenie -> Nogrod (Nogrod - 1)
Morsul -> SpM (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1)
Pitchwife -> Boro (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1, Boro - 1)
SpM -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1)
Roa -> SpM (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1)
Nogrod -> McCaber (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1, McCaber - 1)
Loslote -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 2, McCaber - 1)
Hakon -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1)
sally -> Hakon (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 1)
Lari -> Hakon (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2)
Inzil -> Pitchwife (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1)
Brinn -> Loslote (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1)
Boro -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 4, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1)
Fea -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 5, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1)

Did not vote – McCaber, Nerwen, wilwa (Is this right? I can’t see their votes.)

Analysis on its way – when I get a chance.

[wilwarin538]

K, sorry I didn't do much yesterDay, I'm just going through some stuff right now, but I should be able to come on more toDay, I hope. Can't say much now, just lettting you know I will show up again in a few hours.

[Nerwen]

The Saucepan Man
...Who is, appropriately, one noisy player. This took ages!

#11.
Banter, joke-suspecting everyone who has posted so far. Comments on overall set-up. This is where the "Friendly Wolf" thing first appears. He finishes by saying that it would be best to kill the Bear, but that this won't be easy since they leave few tracks.

#15.
[Replying to Greenie's question on how hard the Bear will be to catch]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

That depends how good the Bear is. No pressure, by the way, Bear.

[Replying to my comment that last time he jokingly accused everyone, he was a wolf.]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

True. But, as you know, lightning never strikes in the same place twice. Except in horror stories, of course … er ... oh …

An odd response. May just be a joke, but could also be a wolf trying to signal to the cobbler (or even vice versa). This was still in the jokey early part of the Day, however, so I wouldn't want to read too much into it. He's doing a lot of winking, though...

#20.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it.

I should guess that this is the comment that did most to bring him under suspicion later, as it looks very much as though he is hinting that he is the "Friendly Wolf". Could also be trying to suggest that the "Friendly Wolf" leave clues to stop us lynching him.

Repeats that killing the Bear would be good, but difficult to accomplish.

Speculates on "the dynamic between the Wolves and the Bear". Concludes that "the Innocents and the Wolves have a mutual interest in finding and killing the Bear". Asks if there is "any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?"

#21. [Replying to Inzil.]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I rather got the impression that Nerwen was being flippant. In which case, your readiness to seize upon this as suspicious is, in itself, somewhat suspicious.

Which I agreed with.

#25. Relying to Morsul, who said that we would still need to kill the "Friendly Wolf".

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

But if the friendly Wolf is the last remaining Wolf, I hardly think that he is going to suddenly turn on the remaining innocents ...

#29.
Says that my comment about hoping we will not lynch the "Friendly Wolf" too soon is "worth bearing in mind".

These last two are, again, rather odd comments. I wondered at the time if he could be the "Friendly Wolf"... so again it raises the possibility that he was deliberately posing as a non-existent role. That would, though highly suspicious, also be extremely foolhardy for a wolf at that stage. At this stage I'd guess his role to be either the cobbler, or else an innocent who perhaps thought I was the FW.

#35.Accepts Inzil's demolition of the "Friendly Wolf" theory; says he misinterpreted the narration. Points out that Mira has made a mistake and given the wrong number of ordos. Comments that at least we now have an even greater chance of lynching a baddie.

#43. Is glad the mistake is cleared up; thinks we should perhaps have kept the "Friendly Wolf" idea going longer, to confuse the Wolves; doesn't like the way Roa suspects him for his mistake.

#47. Is astonished that anyone could think the "Friendly Wolf" idea was a ruse by a baddie, since that interpretation of the narrative would not occur to someone (i.e. a wolf) who knew its true meaning, and since the "ruse" would depend on most of the village also being taken in. Thinks Roa's apparent mistake about the number of wolves may have been an actual trick. Roa's quickness to jump on people makes him uneasy.

–Which is all quite reasonable.

#49. Agrees with Roa that we need to vote for someone, but is reserving judgement for now.

#99. Suspects Roa for aggression, but admits that she is always like that. Is still reserving judgement. Reiterates (replying to Nogrod, who find him suspicious) that the "Friendly Wolf" ruse would be a bad one. Defends Greenie against Nogrod's charge that her preoccupation with the Bear is itself bearish– points out that Bears are "a rare feature of WW games" so it's not surprising people are concerned about them. Says Nogrod seems "uncharacteristically aggressive", but is perhaps "too in your face" to be a wolf.

A cobbler's unwillingness to go after anyone too strongly, in case that person is a wolf? Perhaps.

Then he says this:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I'm glad to see that Boro, at least, caught my drift concerning the dynamics between the Bear and the Wolves. I pretty much agree with all that he says. It's not a case of trying to get one or t'other of them on our side or relying on them to side with us, but rather pointing out, so that they are clear, what it is their best interests to do.

Now he– SPM– is preoccupied with the Bear. Why? It's not unreasonable, as the bear (was!) is indeed a menace, and also not one anyone's used to. However, it is in the interests of both wolves and cobbler to locate the Bear, as well as the village. It's also in their interest to keep us thinking about the Bear instead of them. (Yeah, I did mean that part of my Day One post.)

#104. Further defends himself against Roa.

#105. Replying to Morsul, who voted him.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Congratulations. You have just appeared between my crosshairs.

Morsul's reason for voting him was indeed quite weird– because of the "Friendly Wolf" thing, which he also believed, and also because of what seems to be a severe case of the "Gambler's Fallacy".

#110. Defends himself against Roa, accusing her of misrepresenting his case against her. Denies he is over-defensive about the "Friendly Wolf" affair, since it has in fact brought him under suspicion.

#114. Says he needs to vote soon.

Comments that Hakon is "wrong-headed" and "unhelpful" but should not be voted for that. Is somewhat uneasy about Pitch– "He just seems to be sitting on the sidelines appearing reasonable but stirring the pot every now and then", and about Nogrod due to his aggression.

Says he is most worried about Morsul, because of the dodgy reasoning behind his vote.

#118.[Replying to Roa, who claims everyone is assuming the Bear will help the village]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I most certainly am not. I agree that we cannot rely on the Bear do do anything vis-a-vis the Wolves. Ditto the Wolves vis-a-vis the Bear. However, I see no harm in pointing out, for the Bear's benefit, that it is in his interests to go after the Wolves.

Dislikes Pitch's vote for Boro, as his case "looks to be the flimsiest of the flim to me."

#120. Very sharp response to Nogrod's comment that he has been praising Boro for stating the obvious:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie? First Greenie and now me. Since when does a passing mention in a single post constitute praising someone "so many times"?

Says he will probably vote for Morsul.

#123.And does. Not, I think, a particularly suspicious vote.

Comments. Probably not a wolf, as I think the FW business looked like a genuine mistake. May be the cobbler. Some of his posts look like attempts to signal to other players, and his defence of Boro could be that of a cobbler who had mistaken Bearishness for wolfishness.

Or not. An innocent might try to sound out other players too.

Overall, I'd say the evidence is inconclusive. If evil, he is more likely cobbler than wolf.

EDIT:X'd with a host; added comment on vote.

[Nerwen]

Loslote

#126. Checks in.

#129. Says Morsul looks most suspicious. "His logic has left me confused while I try to figure out what he could possibly mean, and then trying to figure out where he got it."

At this point Morsul already had a vote, so this looks a little opportunistic.

Dislikes Hakon's meta-game reasoning. Doesn't think SPM is a were of any kind, as he seems "genuine". Has no read on Roa and will look at her. (Didn't.)

#132. Asks what Morsul meant by "time limit".


#142. Votes Morsul, "because he's the most suspicious one so far."

#143. [Replying to Morsul's defence of his vote for SPM]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, that's suspicious. You didn't have time to do your own analysis? Then vote who seems the most suspicious to you, but don't vote because other people give good points against them! This may be a perfectly reasonable vote, and you could even be right (although I don't think so) but that reasoning just made me even more sure of my vote.

#149. Defends SPM against Morsul's charges.

#153.[Replying to Morsul, who complained that she wanted him to put his "entire life on hold" in order to do analyses]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I didn't say that. I said you should have looked at the person you were voting for, not just what other people said about him.

*shrugs* As I said, the vote is perhaps a little opportunistic. The thing is, though, that Morsul actually had behaved quite suspiciously, so that voting him is not in itself a sign of guilt... while, at the same time, it's likely enough that the wolves took advantage of the situation. (Ditto with Hakon.)

She really goes out of her way to defend SPM. This may be simply due to exasperation with Morsul. However, it may also point to a connection.

[The Saucepan Man]

Thoughts on the votes:

Four Wolves. If I was them, I would try to spread the votes, particularly given that it looked from a reasonably early stage in the voting (roughly the time of Hakon’s vote) like Morsul would most likely be lynched.

Morsul voters – If I am right about spreading the votes, I would guess that there is no more than one Wolf here, if that. Two Morsul voters are dead, leaving me, Loslote and Fea. Fea’s vote was unreasoned, although Morsul was one of the few that she expressed suspicion of earlier in the Day. Also, I am doubtful whether a Wolf would want to be ‘sealing the deal’, as it were, on the lynching of an innocent Morsul. To my mind, therefore, if there was a Wolf in the Morsul bandwagon, it more likely to have been Loslote. As I think has already be noted, her vote does look to have been rather opportunistic. That said, it is quite possible that the Wolves avoided this bandwagon altogether.

Hakon voters – Lari and sally – It’s unlikely that they are both Wolves, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one of them is. Hakon did rather give people an excuse to vote for him with all his Meta-reasoning stuff, and I wouldn’t put it past a Wolf to take advantage of this. A Wolf wouldn’t necessarily want to get caught in the lynching of the Seer, but it seems unlikely that the Wolves spotted him, or he would have had the pleasure of two visits last Night.

Greenie for Nogrod – Given his accusation of her, based on what I thought to be rather weak evidence, I can see why she might vote for him. That said, she does not appear to have looked very closely at many others and she may have used this thing about her frequently voting for him as cover to place an ‘easy’ vote.

Pitchwife for Boro – Given what we know now, it looks good. However, as I pointed out yesterDay, it was based on very little evidence indeed and rather came out of nowhere. Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates. Not at all sure about this one.

Roa for me – Not a surprise, given our interaction yesterDay. And, as mentioned previously, this doesn’t look much like a Wolfish vote to me.

Nogrod for McCaber – Now, I know that Nogrod dislikes the quiet types. But this does rather give him an excuse to place what looks to me to be an incredibly safe vote. There was little prospect of McCaber being lynched so he was the ideal candidate for a Wolf who had to vote relatively early and didn’t want to be caught in a bandwagon. And the reasoning was poor – ‘buddying up’, based only on McCaber’s comment that Nogrod was making sense. You really need to take those anti-exagerration pills, Noggie.

Inzil for Pitchwife – Again, a rather safe vote, given that there was little prospect of Pitch being lynched at the time that it was placed. But the reasoning was sound (for a Day 1 vote). Pitch’s vote for Boro did look strange at the time.

Brinn for Loslote- I can’t fault the reasoning. Loslote’s vote did look opportunistic. But, once again, relatively safe and could even be a Wolf-on-Wolf. The prospect of Loslote being lynched was minimal and so it would have been a good opportunity for a Wolfish Brinn to vote for a Wolfish Loslote.

Non-voters – Wilwa and McCaber explained, I think, that they might not have the opportunity to vote. I am not sure that Nerwen has explained her non-vote. I don’t like non-voters, because I find people’s votes to be some of the most useful items of evidence that we have. That said, it would be quite dangerous for a Wolf deliberately not to vote on Day 1, given that a second consecutive non-vote will, I think, trigger elimination by modfire.

In summary, to my mind the most Wolfish votes are those of Loslote, Nogrod and one of the Hakon votes. Possible Wolfish votes – Fea, Inzil and Brinn. Not sure about Greenie, Pitch and the non-voters, and Roa’s vote looks to me the least Wolfish.

Note – this is based purely on votes.

[Brinniel]

We keep shooting Hakon down, but in the last three games he has now hunted a wolf, protected the seer, and dreamt a werebear. He must be doing something right. I don't think we can really put it against him if he dreamt Boro for meta-reasons. The roles here may be completely random, but on Night 1 there is absolutely nothing within the game to go off of since no one's posted yet. So the only thing a seer can do is guess or choose based off experiences from past games. His ultimate mistake was bringing that meta-reasoning into Day One, which he shouldn't have...but hopefully he's learned his lesson. I was rather surprised to discover Hakon was the seer, though seeing his posts it does add up. The reasons why he was killed seem fairly obvious now knowing who the werebear was. Hakon would've been fairly lynchable toDay, but that would've meant him revealing which would expose Boro if he had indeed dreamt of him.

From yesterDay's voting, I still suspect Loslote for being opportunistic and am still wary of Nogrod since his vote seemed to come out of thin air. I'm also not happy with Lari and Sally's votes because while Hakon was annoying everyone, I don't think it's a valid reason to vote him. Because irritating and not following the rules does not necessarily equal wolf. And anyway, if he continued to pull this crap if he were still alive, he would've been modfired.

Of course, there's much more to look at than just the voting but I'm at work now and don't really have time to thoroughly look at everyone, so it'll have to wait for later. Don't expect a whole lot from me toDay since it's another long day and I'm still lacking sleep, but I'll do my best. ToMorrow will be much better since it'll be the weekend (yay).

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm here and reading. I'll probably be off and on since I have a mammoth of a paper to write, and I think I'm getting sick, but I'll do my best to be around as much as possible. I probably won't have time for analysis until later though.

[Inziladun]

Some very brief thoughts:

If a Seer wants to use meta-reasoning to aid in choosing whom to dream of, that's fine. Otherwise, it's not an advisable tactic, especially when one tries to base votes solely on it.

I don't like Loslote's vote on Morsul. Highly band-waggonish. Same with Fea, though as I think SPM said, it would have been pretty brash of a Feawolf to brag about 'sealing the deal'.

The Hakon voters ought to be heavily scrutinised as well. I think it highly likely there's at least one wolf there. Lari still looks a little worse to me than Sally.

Nog's vote for McCaber still looks odd. Yes, I know he doesn't like submarines, but I think there were better targets than McCaber. I look forward to hearing from Nog toDay.

Pitch's vote could well have been just for safety's sake. Other than his vote, I haven't seen much suspicious about him, but he's worth keeping in mind.

More as time allows.

[Roa_Aoife]

Responding as I go, so I may be repeating some others.

#179- Pitchwife: We can't know for sure that the wolves spotted Boro for the bear. We shouldn't fall into the trap of ruling out other causes of death.

#180- SPM: Having read through yesterDay with a cooler head, I am beginning to see Pitch's point. The ironic part is that I was trying to avoid getting stuck on that with Nogrod and ended up falling into it with you instead. I still think you were harsh to jump on me for an early, admittedly weak suspicion, given that's what everyone was doing at the time, though. You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else.

#182- SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1?

#184- Nerwen: SPM as the cobbler? It's possible, but as we saw last game, pretending to be the cobbler works for a wolf, and SPM saw that too. Still we aren't at a point yet where the cobbler is a huge concern, so cobbler spotting isn't going to help right now.

#186- SPM: I see your point about the possible wolf in the Hakon voters. I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul. Morsul's vote almost changed my mind, and we know how amazing that is. It's not terribly surprising that someone who just arrived to find his vote highly suspicious. I would think that the people who voted after Morsul's defense, which to my mind was very reasonable, look more suspicious. And we know one baddie was involved there.

Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me.

Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense.


Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186.

Also, my slightly fevered brain tells me I should take a nap before I tackle the ethics surrounding the Hiroshima bombings. I'll be back later.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense.

You're right, in that it probably isn't wise to put anything past Fea.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186.

Did I? Sorry. I haven't yet read everything toDay.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have had a look through Boro’s posts – there were more than I thought!

As has been noted, he talked a lot about Bear tactics and Bear v Wolf dynamics. Probably more so than anyone else, so perhaps he was attacked because the Wolves had spotted him. If so, he only has himself to blame, as that was his advice to them. However, we cannot be sure that they did, so it is worth looking to see whether they might have had some other reason for attacking him.

At various points, he expressed suspicion to varying degrees about a fair few people. This figures, I suppose, as he would want to keep his options open. Other than Morsul, however, his main suspect appears to have been sally (#101 and #131), although he wavered to and fro on Nogrod and Greenie a bit (#131, #135 and #164) and noted right at the end that he was tempted to vote for Lari but would check her out the next Day (#166). I think that, if the Wolves did target Boro because of something that he said about one of them, then this would point towards sally, and perhaps Lari, more than anyone else. Which is interesting, given that they are the two Hakon voters, and I think one of them is quite likely a Wolf. But it’s a fairly tenuous lead, and I didn’t see much else in what he said that might have provoked the Wolves to attack him.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else.

Charmed, I am sure. The feelings’ mutual.

Originally Posted by Roa

SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1?

Hehe. I know, I know. Hence my self-admonishment.

Originally Posted by Roa

I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul.

I’ll have to look back at it again, but I recall thinking it rather opportunistic at the time. With the benefit of hindsight, I think that Morsul would have looked incredibly lynchable to a Wolf at that point and, if I were a Wolf, I would always prefer to find a nice comfy seat at the front of a bandwaggon, rather than an uncomfortably bumpy one right at the back. That’s the reason that I think Loslote looks the more Wolfish than Fea out of the two, but I take your point about not putting anything past Fea. As I mentioned previously, however, it is always possible that, precisely because Morsul looked lynchable, the Wolves avoided that bandwaggon altogether.

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me.

I agree that this, in itself, is not enough to establish Wolfishness. But it is one of the patterns that I look for in the votes. Wolves like to hunker down in nice, warm, 'safe' votes if they can, particularly when a lynchable innocent looks to be in the firing line. I am also always wary of anything that looks that it might be a safe Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by SpM

Eh? It wasn’t me who said that …

Oh no! Sorry! It must have been Boro, then, I noticed when I was reading that I kept mixing the two of you up...

Originally Posted by SpM

Greenie for Nogrod – Given his accusation of her, based on what I thought to be rather weak evidence, I can see why she might vote for him. That said, she does not appear to have looked very closely at many others and she may have used this thing about her frequently voting for him as cover to place an ‘easy’ vote.

More than not looking closely at others, I think it was not seeing much eyebrow-raising stuff in others.

Now a quick list before I'm off to write a French essay on preserving water. Eurgh.

Brinn - seems innocentish
Fea - Roa has a good point about her vote, I have little on her apart from that. The poems were cool, though.
Greenie - that's me.
Inzil - no read, dunno why since he's been posting quite actively. Might take a look at him toMorrow if we both are alive (I won't have the time toDay).
Lari - too little to go on
Loslote - can't say, really - I can see how her vote could appear very opportunistic, but I don't have enough data from her to say this or that.
McCaber - too little to go on
Nerwen - leaning innocent
Nog - is still the only one I have actual arguments against. I believe I have talked enough about him already, I'd love it if he appeared before I vote because I had some questions for him. I will not judge this or that before I've had those questions answered.
Pitchwife - seems innocent
Roa - seems so sensible it frightens me, if you know what I mean. She makes soooo much sense that I'm lulled into thinking "she makes sense, she can't be a wolf", when I know that making or not making sense doesn't necessarily have anything to do with being or not being a wolf. Actually, more than once, while reading, I caught myself thinking "What if Roa is a wolf?"
sally - too little to go on
Saucepan Man - leaning innocent
wilwa - too little to go on

Four of the above people are wolves. Nog? Roa? Fea? Sally, McCab, Loslote, Wilwa, Lari? Brinn (knowing my skill in reading her)? Dunno.

Heeeeeeeeeeey actually I got an idea. Nog and Roa together? I'm not sure if I remember this right but wasn't Roa suspecting Nog early on Day 1, but dropped the suspicion after a while? Convenient wolf-on-wolf? I'd love to investigate but now I have to write the stupid essay. Back when I'm finished!

[Nogrod]

I think this will be the Nth time I say this, but let me try and formulate it this way (if it would finally hammer in to some thick skulls around... ).

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

On Day1 never vote a player who actually "invests in the game", takes time and effort to actually produce ideas, reads and comments on others, builds or tries to build cases... throwing her/his neck forwards in general.

Elucidation of the rule

Those people can be read on later Days much better than those who act like submarines - and it is fair to let those people play who actually play and sink the submarines.

First amendment to the NwwrD1

If one of the people referred to in the NwwwD1 as "those who invest into the game" turns out so suspicious that there is a clear and open argument beyond any reasonable doubt that the person is a baddie, then neglect NwwrD1 and vote for the person.

Second amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game", then try to affect the lynching as to save those you think fit the description or who feel the most innocent.

Third amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game" and there is no chance to stay around at the deadline and affect the voting, then pick the most suspicious person from the low-posters / non-involveds and hope for the best.


My late dinner is ready and cooling... More thoughts soonish.

[Pitchwife]

Back and just finished reading. One little comment:

Originally Posted by SpM #186

Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates.

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight? As I said above, my vote was more of a shot in the dark that luckily hit home. I had no idea Boro was the Bear, of all furry things, though in retrospect clues weren't altogether lacking.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I just woke up from my nap and now I'm catching up.

[Roa_Aoife]

#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.) Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)

#195- Nogrod: Yes, we know your rules. However, can you explain why you found McCaber more suspicious than the other low posters?

Well that didn't take too long. Where is everybody?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?

Maybe he wanted to get Borobear lynched instead of wasting a Night-kill on him? Still, it's a flawed theory - why lynch the Bear if you have an alternative of killing him at Night so that he can kill once too? Ok, there's a chance he might target a wolf, but the chance isn't that big.

I'd love to check what's between Roa and Nog, but now I'm ravenous and will get something to eat first. And also, I'll vote in an hour, or I hope to, since I need to go to bed (my alarm clock will ring in something like nine hours from now). Back in a minute! Be productive while I'm away so I'll have some lovely new last-minute ideas. Please?

EDIT: x-ed with Roa

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Roa

#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.)

Just to be clear - I wasn't suspecting you because you are making sense - I just find it creepy when I realise I'm discarding the possibility of someone being a baddie because s/he is making so much sense. So when I became too conscious that I was doing exactly this with you, I sort of got an opposite reaction (ie. continuously thinking "Roa could be a wolf"). And then I got this funny idea of you and Nog being fellows, which would, if it was correct, make you a wolf. (Captain Obvious strikes again!)

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)

Right. That's theory ruined. Though actually, making a point of ignoring someone in order not to end up focusing only on that said person would be a very neat way of avoiding saying anything specific about your fellow... Gah, I'll look into that once I have time. Now I'm really starving so I'm off to eat.