Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Boromir88]

Yesterday Nerwen looked like an easy target for the wolves, today I'm not so sure. She's still posting frequently, but the posts are all empty.

Maybe I'm prejudiced here, Aganzir, but your activity yesterDay gives me a nasty impression of shopping around for someone to lynch~Nerwen

There is no explanation, nothing. It's just' Aganzir's activity looks suspicious (ok why?) and it's arguably an easy statement for people to agree with, because Agan was drawing suspicions yesterday.

The reaction of Aganzir and later Rikae to this makes me wonder...

What were their reactions, what are you wondering about? I'm sorry right now I don't have time to go searching through all the posts to try to find what you mean. It would be much easier if everyone just explained themselves. But I got a feeling the hackers don't want to do that.

Making a statement (like Agan's activity yesterday rubs me the wrong way), that's easy for everyone to agree with, and not giving any kind of explanation looks highly suspicious. I can't see Nerwen as a hacker, I don't know why one would continue this charade from yesterday. Perhaps she's our spammer.

I wanted to make a comment on Formendacil, but am out of time, and will have a couple hours later before the deadline.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Eönwë

He remains the most suspicious for me. He hasn't done anything to assuage my suspicions from DAY 1.

That's it from me. Good DAY.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Aganzir wants me.

...dead.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe I'm prejudiced here, Aganzir, but your activity yesterDay gives me a nasty impression of shopping around for someone to lynch.

Do you have anything solid to back it up so it wouldn't look like you're just trying to make people feel uncomfortable about me?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the other hand, at least you didn't vote "at random" or giving IC reasons, unlike some people I could mention.

"I suspect you but I don't."
Are you trying to make it look like I was your fellow wolf or gain an ally by speaking nicely of my vote?

Originally Posted by Boro

What were their reactions, what are you wondering about?

We both wanted her to explain why she thought so.

I think I wouldn't mind lynching her today. At least rather than Eönwë.

I'm leaving now, will be back later.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Kath random-votes. At least she's honest. Of course, a random-vote during Day 1 is nearly guaranteed not to be followed up, making it quite safe (and possibly wolf-on-wolf).

Do you think there'd be wolf-on-wolf voting so early?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Seriously, I don't find her particularly suspicious. Eomer and Eönwë have jumped on her for jumping on Sally for jumping on Sixth... what a mess.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I saw Eönwë's vote just now... Well he did exactly what I had said he has been doing and which I think is suspicious (jumping on other's ideas) and voted for Mith. I'm not sure if he just lacks ideas or whether he might act that way as a wolf. I mean it looks just too bold to do that for a wolf.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

++The Sixth Wizard

If this is suspicious so be it.

Random or not you must have known Sixth wizard had garnered a fair number of votes already.

Originally Posted by Boro

Yesterday Nerwen looked like an easy target for the wolves, today I'm not so sure. She's still posting frequently, but the posts are all empty.

A worrying truth indeed. Nerwen's posts are one liners, ICs, with an occasional post that clarifies or half-heatedly accuses.

Votes
Early votes
Form
Kit

Votes that spread it out
Form
Kit
Sally
Mith
Eomer
Kath
Ka
Durelin
These are the first/only to cast a vote for a specific person.

"Bandwagoners"
Eonwe
Boro
Rikae
Elf-warrior
Nerwen
Agan
Noggie

Most suspicious
Eonwe- Voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth
Boro- Next vote for Sixth
Elf-warrior- Third vote for Sixth
Agan-Tied Eonwe and Sixth, though a tie doesn't result in a double-lynch a tie remains a tie. If nothing else it confuses and muddles things especially close to deadline.
This is based purely on when and how they voted for, not their reasoning behind it.

Agan & Eonwe's look the most suspicious to me based on timing. Though I'm going to read through their posts before deciding fully how I feel about either.

edit: adding spaces

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's just' Aganzir's activity looks suspicious (ok why?) and it's arguably an easy statement for people to agree with, because Agan was drawing suspicions yesterday.

What were their reactions, what are you wondering about?

I thought it was obvious: the fact that they tried to get me lynched for saying that. It makes me think I may have hit on something. After all, last game I picked a wolf on Day One and was promptly killed for my pains.

And my last post was leading up to another one, for your information:

People I could mention (random/frivolous voters)

Eönwë does give some actual reason for his vote, but it looks like he's just picking up on things other people have said.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

++Mithalwen

Because of the way she posts, as if she's hiding behind hersef being IC but not at the same time. Hard to explain what I mean. Also, her attitude seems slightrly suspicious

"You should always sort out the problems nearby before you sort outt problems in the world", says me. And since we both live in "Beleriand" (accordinng to Nilp), she is definitely nearby.

Formendacil can't be accused of copy-cat suspicions; however, he gives no serious reason at all, plus he's pre-defensive, to coin an expression. (Or has someone done that already?)

Originally Posted by Formendacil

suspect me all you like, but you'll not be able to accuse me of sneaking onto any bandwaggons.

++Nogrod

Because what would make a better cover for a hacker looking to overthrow the existing Mods than a pathetic wannabe-Mod? No one would suspect it.

Kath doesn't even try to explain her vote.

Originally Posted by Kath

Alright, I'm giving up because I need to go to bed and I've people wanting to use the computer. Random vote because hey, it's Day 1. So truly random, I'm voting for the last person to post.

++EONWE

Neither does The Elf-warrior– and he's pre-defensive. Not only that, unlike the others he's "randomly" casting the third vote on The Sixth Wizard, bringing him into the lead.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

The following is a random vote.

++The Sixth Wizard

If this is suspicious so be it.

EDIT: X'd with Aganzir, Kitanna.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Do you have anything solid to back it up so it wouldn't look like you're just trying to make people feel uncomfortable about me?

Just the way you seemed perfectly happy to get either Sixth or me lynched.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Are you trying to make it look like I was your fellow wolf or gain an ally by speaking nicely of my vote?

Eru forbid! I was leading up to my next post, where I list the random voters.

Originally Posted by Aganwolf

I think I wouldn't mind lynching her today. At least rather than Eönwë.

I see. A change of plans, eh?

[Kitanna]

Eonwe-
He makes note of Nogrod, Nerwen, and Form as the spammer around the 58th post.

++Mithalwen

Because of the way she posts, as if she's hiding behind hersef being IC but not at the same time. Hard to explain what I mean. Also, her attitude seems slightrly suspicious

I don't buy it. I feel the vote placing, the reasoning, the time, they all feel off. It all feels too neat and tidy.
Eonwe's vote comes out of the blue and it comes right after Eomer's vote for Mith.

Agan

Sixth. One post and speaks only of Nerwen, telling why we should vote for her.

This is Agan's first mention of Sixth as suspicious. Not much malice here. I said something similar in regards to Sixth's only post.

Sixth. Nothing's changed since my first post.

Again, but why? It seemed like Sixth's only post was made in jest.

Nerwen. She makes me uncomfortable and looks both guilty and innocent so I rather label her guilty. I don't know - there's something in the way she suspects people.

At this point it felt like you would have more of a case for Nerwen than Sixth.

I am planning to vote in an hour since I would love to get to sleep a bit earlier than during the last few days, and if I had to vote now it'd probably be for Sixth.

He had one IC joke in his first (and only) post, and then he accused Nerwen, half-jokingly and also with IC reasons. Wolves often throw random suspicion around and wait for someone to carry it on. That's why I'm also suspicious of Nerwen.

But if Sixth were a wolf, I'd say he'd have appeared again to defend/stir the pot elsewhere. Rather than disappearing.
In Agan's first posts there were a few of cutting down the IC chatter.

I feel uncomfortable with the way Nilp is now turning accusations from Nerwen and Sixth to people who suspect(ed) them.

Post 121 Agan votes for Sixth. It was clear that's where the vote was going. Sixth was a constant in her posts from the beginning. But the reasoning, everything based on his first and only post.

Timing wise, Eonwe looks worst. Reasoning wise, they look equal. Eonwe just jumps onto Mith after no previous mention. A constant in Agan's suspicions was Sixth so though her vote was placed in the midst of a bandwagon it was clear she had intentions to vote for Sixth.

If Agan is a hacker she's a sloppy or very clever one. I can't see a hacker basing everything on one IC post, especially after looking for people to move away from IC posts. No, that doesn't feel like a hacker to me, a spammer maybe.

Eonwe on the other hand is playing carefully. Taking up another suspicions after Mith places her vote for Sally. Yet, he never mentions her vote for Sally in his own vote. He pretty much says she "feels off" without prior mention.

[Nogrod]

It's always fun to visit friends you haven't seen in a long time and be a quest in other peoples' houses - and I've sure enjoyed my time here. But werewolfwise it's pretty frustrating...

Anyhow I've just read the thread for toDay and will be able to actually play later nearer the deadline (like on Day1).

Just a few short notes for now.

I appreciate Nerwen's listing of the frivolous votes". I do disappreciate them.

And what, Shasta said that "at least Kath is honest"! And I haven't seen anyone strongly disagreeing... I myself have rather lived by the standard twisted from Göbbels: "everytime I hear a declaration of a random vote I load my gun". And even if you don't agree with my policies against randomvoters you must agree that it's just nuts to declare someone to be honest if someone says: "I'll vote random" even if she adds it being the one who posted before her. Eonwe (the one without the ¨-marks voted once random for someone being seventh in the list after him etc.).

Like yesterDay I'm not buying this Nerwen is a wolf -argument unless it has more to it (brought there by myself or someone else). She looks more innocent and helpful than many around here.

Gah, my dad called and I need to go... I'll continue as soon as I may.

[Kitanna]

Again I can't wait to hear from those I suspect. So it comes to Eonwe, Agan, and Nerwen.

Eonwe and Agan because of their votes and reasoning.
And my suspicions of Nerwen have not lessened from yesterday. But I feel more confident in mischief on her part now than I did when I voted yesterday. However, I am not confident enough enough to vote for her.

Of Eonwe and Agan it becomes hard to chose. I feel both had rather flimsy reasons for voting the way they did. Eonwe's vote looks far more random and Agan's looks plan suspicious though unsurprising.

++ Aganzir

Eonwe warrants watching and carefully, but when it comes to these two I had to go with my gut feeling. Agan's vote for Sixth, in fact the entire suspicions raised against Sixth, feel wrong. Agan was looking for people to move away from IC posts in some of her earliest posts, but then she votes for someone who made one IC post and never defended themselves again. That all feels wrong to me and it doesn't make sense.

[Rikae]

Ok - The Elf-Warrior (who I was about to call "she" too, before Form beat me to it) started ringing my alarm bells from his first post yesterDay, and his vote is one of the most evil looking I have ever seen. However, there's something that bugs me about this - I'm not sure how often he's played WW before, but his first posts bothered me precisely because they looked like the nervously smiling, orchestrated posts of a newbie wolf. The rather cocky vote, however, is more like something a bold, experienced wolf might try as a method of "hiding in the open" - defying the village openly in a way a newbie wolf wouldn't dare to do. I will be watching him closely from now on - I have some more thoughts about him I'd rather not mention just yet.

Originally Posted by shasta

Hmm. In #102, Nogrod expressly edits, mentioning Eonwe's edit to say he X'd with Eomer, but apparently did not X with anyone above him, leading me to an odd conclusion. To quote Alice; "Curiouser and curiouser!"

The post before Eomer's was Nogrod's, made two minutes earlier. The one before that was Eonwe's (sorry, I can type ö, but no appropriate e) earlier post. Incidentally, if Eonwe crossed with Eomer, it means he took between 9 and 7 minutes to make his vote-post... evidence of some dilly-dallying or careful thought, but not long enough to be suspicious. Not sure what exactly you're getting at, Shasta.

[Formendacil]

I retain a suspicion that at least one werewolf is hiding among the numerous Sixth voters. If nothing else, they comprise a bloc of voters that is just shy of 1/3 of the community, and so it seems statistically likely that 1/3 of the wolves voted thusly--if we assume all votes equal. They aren't, of course, but we haven't enough hindsight yet to weigh them accurately.

Our votes then (culled from Sally's very useful voting record, for Sixth:

Sally-->Sixth at 4:29pm
Boro-->Sixth at 5:42pm
Elf-->Sixth at 5:54pm
Agan-->Sixth at 5:56pm
Noggie-->Sixth at 5:59pm

As for Sally herself, her vote is sufficiently early in the record (although late in the day) to not garner too much suspicion. Few people had voted yet, she wasn't bandwaggoning, and accusing Sixth is entirely understandable since a case could be made that he was trying to fly under the radar. That being said, however, Sixth had definitely given signs of having fallen off the map, and with an hour and a half left of game time, Sally could have been taking a calculated risk that he would turn up towards the end and leave her vote just one of a number of one-only votes.

Suspicion Level: Low-to-Moderate

Boromir's vote brought Sixth to a tie for lynching with Mith. Although hardly a deciding vote, it is still a very crucial one in my opinion, since with under 20 minutes left and a number of votes yet uncast, those remaining to vote would likely be waiting to see where the wind was blowing, and cast one's vote onto a bandwaggon accordingly. In this case, Boromir's vote meant that Mithalwen was NOT the only player with a multiple number of votes. With this in mind, if Boromir IS a wolf, then Mith very well may be too.

Nothing conclusive from his voting, though it IS suspicious, but on top of this I would add a general feeling from Boromir's reaction to his inability to be online. Now, granted, he could be just a villager or gifted frustrated with an inability to contribute (Boro definitely fits the profile), but his anxiety seems to me almost a bit more personally related, as though he isn't able to influence the actions of the game as he would like. Obviously, this need not make him a wolf--he could just as easily be a cobbler--but it does raise the suspiciousness in my eyes.

Suspicion Level: Moderate-to-High

Elf-warrior's vote, as I have said, looks very bad. Not only did it solidly put Sixth in the lead--a lead he never lost, it was done for very vague reasons. As Nerwen puts it, he's pre-defensive. I would put it differently--he's calculatedly defiant. There's an air about his post of "this isn't really random and I'm not even going to make it look random." Overall, Elf-warrior seems to be posting just enough to not appear to be lurking, but not really substantially enough to form a judgement on--save his vote, which I would say speaks for itself.

Also, as with Boromir, if Elf-warrior is a wolf, one should definitely take a closer look at Mith for potential wolvishness.

Suspicion Level: High

Aganzir has been pushing buttons for two days now... but my understanding is that this is how she normally plays--an understanding that I may pay dearly for if I'm wrong. Her vote against Sixth is the least damning of the five, I would say, and I may get in hot water for saying why. Basically, it boils back to my opinions about Day 1s. Agan's vote, rightly or wrongly, strikes me in such a way as to suggest a similar attitude towards the likelihood of analysing a wolf out of the struggle, and while definitely not random, it's almost as if she's voting for Sixth with the attitude of "if we can't find a wolf, let's at least get rid of the deadwood" (no offence to the deceased, but Sixth was definitely not contributing a lot, real life circumstances to blame or no).

A case can be made against Agan, but I am not inclined to think in that direction.

Suspicion Level: Low

This leaves Nogrod. Perhaps I may seem biased after my vote against him yesterday, but I find him suspicious--albeit on actual grounds this time. Nogrod is no dullard, so the fact that he throws his vote away on Sixth at the very last minute, when there was already no doubt that he was going to be lynched, cannot be simply taken as a sign of an innocent tacking his vote on for the sake of voting and not wanting to make a decision that made a difference.

Rather, it would appear more likely that Nogrod is a wolf attempting to look like that, knowing that adding his vote uselessly to someone a wolf would know is innocent would give him just a touch of suspicion--enough to explain his lack of death at wolvish hands in days to come, and to free him from more serious suspicion that would come from a more serious vote.

Unfortunately, the whole difficulty with my crediting Nogrod with great intelligence here is that one can go deeper and deeper... what if Nogrod is a gifted looking like a werewolf looking like an ordo? Or a cobbler looking like a gifted looking like a werewolf looking like an ordo? Or a werewolf looking like a cobbler looking like a gifted looking like a werewolf looking like an ordo?

Suspicion Level: Moderate

On the basis of the above, I would be most inclined to vote Elf-warrior, but Boromir and Nogrod would be considerable also, if the voting winds blow that way.

[Rikae]

Oh, and one more thing regarding Eönwe and Eomer -
I can't for the life of me see what was so suspicious about Mith yesterday.

For that matter, I can't see why Sixth was lynched, or why Nerwen thought there was a wolf among Form/Agan/Nilp (not that there isn't), nor why Kitanna voted the indeed suspicious Nerwen for all the wrong reasons, nor why Nogrod was (and is) so quiet. *whew*

That said, there is an innocent (unless cobbler) now known to our ranger, and I suspect it is among those the wolves could be expected to want out of the way early on (which makes me feel better about Nogrod - or possibly, makes the ranger feel better about me? )

Oh, and another thing - Form, in my opinion wolf kills (at least early in the game) are rarely as enlightening as they are made out to be. Usually, they absorb everyone's attention for the first half of the day and then everyone ends up agreeing that it was a "random kill" or possibly a bluff or a double bluff, leaving us where we started, but down an innocent and one day closer to annihilation. Three cheers for the ranger, I say.

EDIT: X'd with Formendacil

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh, and another thing - Form, in my opinion wolf kills (at least early in the game) are rarely as enlightening as they are made out to be. Usually, they absorb everyone's attention for the first half of the day and then everyone ends up agreeing that it was a "random kill" or possibly a bluff or a double bluff, leaving us where we started, but down an innocent and one day closer to annihilation. Three cheers for the ranger, I say.

True enough... they are very often baffling. That being said, however, they provide more hard evidence than a successful Ranger save does. If nothing else, if one looks at all the suspicions of the eaten, and assume that they were all barking up the wrong trees, then we have that much more reason to look at the wolves.

That being said, I will not press the case too strongly, since for all I know--I'm barking up the wrong trees and the wolves are salivating at the thought. I would certainly prefer in such a case to be saved by the Ranger. I'm just pointing out that there is a pessimistic silvery lining to every gorgeous thunderstorm.

Off to church... back sometime later.

[Nerwen]

Kitanna, you are making my brain hurt!

Originally Posted by Kitanna

my suspicions of Nerwen have not lessened from yesterday. But I feel more confident in mischief on her part now than I did when I voted yesterday. However, I am not confident enough enough to vote for her.

But... you're saying you were less confident yesterday, when you did vote for me. Huh?

Then you vote Aganzir, saying that she's more suspicious than Eönwë. Yet your previous post was a rather convincing argument for Eönwë being the more likely hacker of the two, with Aganzir the possible spammer.

What changed your mind?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Not sure what exactly you're getting at, Shasta.

I think he's implying that Eönwë lied about having x'd with Eomer.

(P.S. you can just copy people screennames from their posts, accents and all. That's what I do.)

EDIT: x'd with Formendacil, Rikae, & Formendacil again.

[Nerwen]

Since Rikae was curious, I looked up the Tol-in-Gaurhoth Grimoire. It appears this is The Elf-Warrior's third game, and unless he was a wolf in his first, he has never been one. So... are his tactics too bold for a newbie-wolf? His vote looks extremely non-innocent, but perhaps he is the cobbler/spammer?

I haven't decided who I'll vote for yet. I really have to get some sleep now. Hopefully I'll be back for the deadline. If not... well, you'll just have to do your best without me.

Goodnight.

EDIT: fixed stuff.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Two people, keeping to the sides, and who are making me wonder, are Durelin and THE Ka. At a point when there were 6 candidates with a vote, these two come in and offer another two candidates. Of course any limit to the number of candidates has to be arbitrary, but I wonder if Durelin and Ka weren’t trying too hard not to bandwagon. Their subdued interaction in the village further suggests that they are just letting everyone else do the thinking, and politely staying in the shadows.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Eomer

I wonder if Durelin and Ka weren’t trying too hard not to bandwagon.

I can’t speak for Durelin obviously, but the bandwagon I was avoiding since I was a bit behind the development of the posts, was the N/F/A one brewing earlier. Simply, I thought it was a wasted effort and went on to vote how I wanted to. As for Sixth’s bandwagon, I of course read Agan’s original post stating that she’d more than likely vote for him, but wasn’t sure. Then she quavered between Nerwen and a few others, but always mentioned Sixth as a sidenote. Thinking is a process, but it struck me as odd for Agan to carry extra baggage in voting possibilities. Usually she is more clean-cut, and she gave the impression of forcing herself to ‘appear’ her vote indecisively.

Personally, I didn’t see any great reasoning ground to vote for Sixth anyways. He looked like an easy kill once others started pouncing on his posts, so I ignored the posts against him and the bandwagon, shrugged it off, and went back to my earlier suspicions and what I genuine suspicion in at that time. I’m only a bit tired in floating around without much of a clue, to which bandwagons are a great remedy, but I’m voting for what I want to now and so I’m just not really looking at bandwagons or what time my vote came in. As long as it is before the deadline, that really only what I care about.

Unfortunately today a bit of problems just brewed up so I more than likely will not be able to make it before the deadline, or I'll have to vote early anyways. Wish I could say more, but life happens.


~ Ka

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

First, I find it highly suspicious when players 'lament' the situation. Three people fit this category so far.

1. Mithalwen. The original reason I suspected her; I did not, as Nerwen claimed, simply jump on her for jumping on Sally.

It's this kind of negative lamentation that I find so suspicious. It appears as an appeal to the goodness of the poster -- ...' Seems so artificial to me.

So is there a positive lamentation you approve of? If I were lamenting the situation it was befcause, not having home access I had been sitting around after a long day and week in a draughty library then cybercafe for the sake of reading about 20 posts over more than 4 hours, I assure you any negative feelings were quite genuine.

Of course those who pop in and make a couple of posts are beyond reproach...

That is what I will be doing today but not for that reason I have been sick and now seem to be running a temperature so I think it may not just be my lactose intolerance. Whatever it is I want to get home soon so....

I will try to read through again and make a vote that won't be completely random - though I observe that voting at literally the last minute while exhorting everyone else to make a decision has been a trait of a wolvish Nogrod in recent games I have played.

However random votes that seal someone's fate are also noteworthy as are following on someone elses coat tails - I have started to think of Eonwe as Eomer's mini-me now .

On my first skim I am intrigued by the reaction to the ranger save - now I wouldn't expect effusive congratulation but.... oddness lots of oddness. But I am afraid my next post will quite possibly be my last.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think I understand your annoyance, Mith, but to dedicate so much time to a Day One? To expect lots of interesting stuff? Madness!

Anyway, whenever a player uses one of these -- -- in a post to express thoughts or emotions relating to the village's chances, or in this case the villagers' volume of debate, it always makes me very suspicious. That's all I will say on the matter.

Hope you don't get too ill, like; I've been sneezing non-stop for hours now and feel awful.

[Mithalwen]

Eomer, one of the reasons I don't play so much is because I don't feel I can participate properly. And I am becoming a very grouchy old lady these days but saying it is pointless to spend time on day ones is a a rather self fulfilling prophecy. All the fenris wolves have learnt the hard way that day ones can be productive....

If it had been a tiny village I wouldn't have been so suprised but 19 is big and when it includes lots who normally talk a lot - I didn't really factor in the effect of the US holiday and Nogrod being away otherwise I might have gone sooner - though it seems, typically, that everyone crawled out of the woodwork the moment I went.

Anyway, I now see I was wrong Sally was quite effusive. She is quite perly generally but I do remember that when I made a save as a ranger (rare moment of glory), one of the wolves made a big show of congratulations, and I all but posted "why, thank you!".. however in itself I find Form's attitude a bit strange - to expect to learn much from a first wolf kill is truly optimistic...
but I do agree with him about the Elf Warrior's vote - with such a wide field it was decisive and so anything but random.

Nilp - seems very rational - Son? Are you feeling ok?

Excuse me I need to break this post...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think he's implying that Eönwë lied about having x'd with Eomer.

Yes, but why? Because he posted 7 minutes after Eomer? Because he didn't cross with Nogrod? Either way, it seems pretty far-fetched.

I will say that, Shasta's theory aside, Eönwë's vote doesn't look particularly well-reasoned anyway.

[Rikae]

If EW doesn't start speaking up in a helpful and non-evil manner very soon, I suggest we lynch him. He's contributing very little and what he does contribute exudes evil.

EW, you have one hour to convince me that you are not a danger to the village...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah, someone else has posted about Eonwe. Sorry lad, but...

His posts 58 and 70 are, well, I can't think of the word but how one would describe a big ladle stirring mixture in a bubbling cauldron. Making fuss over Formendacil and Aganzir for very slight things. I think he might be our spammer, actually.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If EW doesn't start speaking up in a helpful and non-evil manner very soon, I suggest we lynch him. He's contributing very little and what he does contribute exudes evil.

EW, you have one hour to convince me that you are not a danger to the village...

Is this a self-reference, Evil Wizard?

For the slow among us, who or what is EW?

EDIT: Elf-Warrior, right.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the three arms, and the stellar rings of doom...

Is this a self-reference, Evil Wizard?

Yep. I also neglected to mention my new gender.

[Mithalwen]

Ah I now see Rikae has already made my point. I clearly am not up to contributing anything much original today and am feeling worse.


Eonwe's post is odd but maybe too conspicuous for a wolf - it is very attention seeking to copy cat like that. Of course it could be a bluff but risky. If he had already got votes I could understand it more but he only got votes after so he wasn't acting through self preservation. Seems more like he could be the spammer.

So it is going to be

++Elf Warrior

I don't know what he was doing with that vote but it wasn't random. So that is it...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Formendacil: intelligent player. Don’t trust him but like to keep him around for now.

Kitanna: Always wary of her (we have a colourful WW history). Hasn’t worried me too much but I know she’s a good lurker.

Sally: Posting style is suspicious to me but I know she did that last game as innocent.

Mithalwen: Suspicious. Don’t trust.

Eonwe: Seems like trouble.

Kath: No idea yet.

THE Ka: Smooth and creepy so far.

Durelin: Not much to go on but definitely on my quiet-wolf list.

Boromir88: Always gives the village something to talk about, so like to keep him around.

Nilpaurion: Speaks some sense but my intuition is different with dear cousin Nilp in this game. A bit suspicious.

Rikae: Sort of trust her so far.

Elf Warrior: Almost certainly up to something. Not sure what.

Nerwen: making more sense the more we play. Trusting her a little bit more.

Aganzir: I know it’s dangerous, but because her thoughts often mimic mine, I usually end up agreeing with her.

Nogrod: Not sure yet.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Form on my vote

so the fact that he throws his vote away on Sixth at the very last minute, when there was already no doubt that he was going to be lynched, cannot be simply taken as a sign of an innocent tacking his vote on for the sake of voting and not wanting to make a decision that made a difference.

I think you are forgetting an important thing here. I really needed to consider the vote there - I mean in the end I actually voted not my prime suspects but one I'd agree.

In case of a tie the lynchee will be randomised. After Agan's vote Sixth had 4 votes, Eönwë 3 and Nerwen & Mith 2 each - and there were three who had not voted yet. So there was a danger of a tie of three emerging including Mith or Nerwen (whom I considered and still do consider not good lynches at least before any better reasons are given). By voting Sixth I did my best to keep Mith & Nerwen away from the gallows.

I'm not saying they are innocents. And if I still live toMorrow I will have to look at them closer (as I will then have time again).


But Form is right in asking after those voting for the Sixth as he turned out an "easy prey" indeed.

I'll try to do that myself as well as I return to the computer.

[Boromir88]

Formen, I am frustrated by not being able to be on-line and contribute. Plain and simple, frustrated, make of that what you will.

Most suspicious
Eonwe- Voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth
Boro- Next vote for Sixth
Elf-warrior- Third vote for Sixth
Agan-Tied Eonwe and Sixth, though a tie doesn't result in a double-lynch a tie remains a tie. If nothing else it confuses and muddles things especially close to deadline.
This is based purely on when and how they voted for, not their reasoning behind it.~Kitanna

Why are the bandwagoners the one's who are most suspicious? It is bandwagoning which causes us to win. We latch onto the ideas we think sound reasonable and go with it.

The one's to be wary of are the bold wolves who will lead a bandwagon against somebody; like Nogrod. Or the bandwagoners who jump on and only repeat what's already been said (the crafty ones will put it in different words to make it look like they came up with something). Which is why I don't buy into Eonwe's vote for Mith as being a bandwagoning wolf, or Mith's jump on sally for voting for the Sixth.

My point is the hackers will play into our hands, if all day long everyone is talking about who's jumping on and bandwagoning, the hackers are going to avoid bandwagoning and stay out of suspicion. I think we should play closer attention to those who tried to spread out the votes more and avoid falling under the "bandwagoner" category.

Like yesterDay I'm not buying this Nerwen is a wolf -argument unless it has more to it (brought there by myself or someone else). She looks more innocent and helpful than many around here.~Nogrod

Ok, let me try to explain it to you then. You say Nerwen has looked to be helpful, I say don't let looks deceive you. Yesterday, it looked like Nerwen was an easy wolf target, because of her headache causing IC posts. However, today she's kept up the same act as yesterday...posting frequently, but not saying much or being pretty vague (albeit she has mostly stopped the chatspeak talk).

It's this today that has bugged me:

Maybe I'm prejudiced here, Aganzir, but your activity yesterDay gives me a nasty impression of shopping around for someone to lynch.

On the other hand, at least you didn't vote "at random" or giving IC reasons, unlike some people I could mention.

She strongly goes after Agan, and then half-heartedly defends Agan's vote. I'm not sure how Agan "shopped around for someone to lynch," without knowing anything that's what we have to do. I can get too narrow-minded, it's good to have people who want to look at all possibilities, all situations. That makes Agan look like she's shopping around for someone to lynch but that doesn't make Agan an evil hacker. That makes her look innocent trying to come up with an answer.

Then it's the slight defense, well Agan's vote wasn't for IC reasons, that looks like a fake defense.

Which reminds me of what I was going to say about Formendacil's vote. Tis an odd vote, but don't know if it is the vote of a hacker. I do remember my first time in a village with Formen jumping on him for making an IC vote, and he turned out to be a wolf. I also remember the next time I was in a village with Formen he made an IC vote, I jumped on him again, that time he was innocent. I have a sense that's Formen's style on Day 1, it doesn't mean he isn't a hacker, but his IC vote for Nogrod alone does not make him look like one.

Edit: crossed with everything since Eomer's 7:51 post

[THE Ka]

Personally, I think Eonwe’s vote appearing right after Eomer’s is probably a result turned in favour of safety. More than likely he was going over his final thoughts on his top suspects, wrote the post and voted. After going through the heat of trying to make a good point on the first day (which, everyone wants to do), noticed Eomer’s vote several minutes before. It appears like bandwagoning, but it simply could be a result of posting and the rate of your post appearing where and when in a thread. Similar to how Durelin or my vote-post appears in the middle of the Sixth bandwagon.
When you’re busy in your own little world of indecision, you don’t pay attention to the average rate of posting between votes, or at least I don’t. It’s like doing calculus when you’re falling off a cliff.

Hmm, maybe I’m just taking too much pity than I should, but in all rationality it could simply be a stroke of luck for his vote.
Whether he is a wolf or not, it both save him and cast suspicion on his earlier posts as well.

Mith I don’t really have a complete opinion on. If she were feeling a bit better (sorry to hear about the summer cold) she probably could post more to clarify her opinions toDay, vs. her pattern from yesterDay. I’ve been reading over her posts several times, because I know something is hiding in all of that indecision, but her vote and view on the Sixth suspicion bandwagon could easily be used for or against her. Against, obviously because she had suspicion on why Sixth was such a wise choice to kill, then for time restrictions had to vote early with little grounded reason. In that order she can be taken as a wolf trying to slip out easily. For, because others disagreed with the Sixth bandwagon and in its hasty creation after the Nerwen backtrack and N/F/A affair, because of sally’s vote appearing like a safe guess.

Sally’s vote obviously was a gamble that came out correct for a strong bandwagon, but you can’t place solid suspicion on her knowing this, because I doubt she could telepathically search into our minds and guess our votes. Plus you can’t retract votes anyways, so there isn’t much else to say on this. If she is a wolf, she was no luckier than if she is an ordo who had a case of indecision and went with the strongest appearing argument of others.
In this same respect, I doubt Mith could have known it was going to be such a strong vote for Sixth, since at that time all our votes were spread out and she herself had two votes over her head. Probably good guessing, I don’t really know. This could make her suspicious for appearing ‘safe’, but the same could be said of most of us.

Aganzir, of course I have suspicion on (it’s natural, I probably always will…), because I know she’s a clever one, but I’m going to vainly hope that for the sake of diversity in the werewolf playing style, Brinn didn’t make her a wolf this time. She always appears suspicious, but ‘werewolf evil’ this time? Not so much. She gives too many options in her vote rationale toDay. If she is a wolf, oh well, just kill me now then.

Durelin I know nothing about. Sorry.

Nilp, even if he is suspicious at points, has been helpful and rational for the majority of toDay. I have little suspicion of him at the moment, plus, good vibes I guess is the best way of saying so.

Boro88 is hard to form any opinion of at the moment. I never can tell much about him anyways, due to a lack of WW co-player experience.

Form, really, no experience with or opinion fully developed on. Doesn’t matter what role he’s playing, so far he has appeared collective and grounded.

Sally, really not much either. She’s acted similar with her posting style before in either role as an ordo or a wolf. As a gifted I know she acts differently, but not as she’s been playing toDay or yesterDay. I won’t have much more of an opinion until after toDay and if she votes as well.

Ugh, there I go rationalizing myself out of my only suspicions. I don’t have more time to spare before the deadline so, I’m going to vote anyways.

++Eonwe

Only because out of my indecision, it’s the one I think know more about at the moment.

Okay, I need to return to my job precessing and bothering HR, sorry to leave so soon, but I need my job because I need money and experience as everyone else does.

~ Ka

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Agan-Tied Eonwe and Sixth, though a tie doesn't result in a double-lynch a tie remains a tie. If nothing else it confuses and muddles things especially close to deadline.

So I should always vote for the one who has the most votes at that moment even though I'm planning to get someone else lynched, because ties are confusing? Ai-ai, I don't buy your reasoning.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I thought it was obvious: the fact that they tried to get me lynched for saying that.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Just the way you seemed perfectly happy to get either Sixth or me lynched.

I might have troubles with my memory, but I cannot remember trying to get you lynched on day 1. Why? Because I didn't even consider voting for you then.
I suspected you, though not as much as today. I was accusing you. But I found it unlikely that I would end up voting for you. If I don't have any very strong suspicions I rather vote for the more silent one.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I see. A change of plans, eh?

Which plans?

Nerwen has been talking more or less nonsense to a scary extent (and I'm not referring to chatspeak now ). There's definitely something uncharacteristical in her behaviour - random accusations, poor reasoning, twisting the truth...

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Again, but why? It seemed like Sixth's only post was made in jest.

Because that post was suspicious. Had it been wolfish, if people had started suspecting Nerwen it would have been easy for Sixth to continue it; if not, if he had got suspected for it himself, he could have said it was merely a jest.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

But if Sixth were a wolf, I'd say he'd have appeared again to defend/stir the pot elsewhere. Rather than disappearing.

He's one of the quieter players anyway so I wouldn't have counted on that.

Originally Posted by Form

Agan's vote, rightly or wrongly, strikes me in such a way as to suggest a similar attitude towards the likelihood of analysing a wolf out of the struggle, and while definitely not random, it's almost as if she's voting for Sixth with the attitude of "if we can't find a wolf, let's at least get rid of the deadwood"

*gives Form a cookie*

My list right now looks like this:

Guilty
Nerwen for reasons mentioned, and my favourite lynching candidate for today.
Nilp for reasons mentioned.
EW. I don't like him, either. But I'd like to point out that, if I remember correctly, the last time I played with him he was suspected for pretty much the same reasons and was innocent, so although suspicious, his behaviour isn't necessarily wolfish. But he definitely isn't of much help to the village, and if those are to be lynched, it should be done early. I'm too lazy to dig deeper into his posts right now to search for clearly wolfish vibes, but mostly because of my opinion expressed in the previous sentence he gets onto the list.

Innocent
Boro because he speaks sense and I agree with him too much.
Rikae because she speaks sense and I agree with her too much, although this worries me a bit. I have a feeling I should suspect her.
Mithalwen because she just looks innocent (although she hasn't claimed innocence yet).
Shasta strikes me as innocent, and as he's helpful, I'd rather not lynch him.
Eomer. I think I could actually say the same - I think quite the same way as he, so I won't be going after him at least for a while.
Ka, for now. I have this naive idea that she might not suspect me if she was a wolf. Well, not that she did it that much, but... Though I will be keeping an eye on her since she can be very cunning.
Nogrod feels innocent enough to get on the list, but I don't trust him.
Eönwë. I can't see anything that suspicious about him. Maybe because he's still relatively new to ww and somehow I believe he would be more apparent if a wolf.

Neither
Kitanna. I admit she has valid points in suspecting me, but I can't really trust anyone I know for sure is accusing an innocent.
Kath. Where is she?
Durelin. Where is she?
sally. No idea.
Form leaves me baffled.

edit: xed with Ka

[The Elf-warrior]

Sorry, all, I have no time to talk.

++Eönwë

[Shastanis Althreduin]

hAy n00b!!11!

d0nt u no i woz ti3d with u & mith & sixth & n3ar DL???

r u b31ng IC & makeNg c0nsp1RacY th30r13z???

or r u st00pid or wot???11!!! (Nerwen)

Translation:

Hey, silly new person!

Don't you know I was tied for votes with yourself, Mithalwen, and Sixth near the deadline?

Are you being in-character and making up ridiculous conspiracy theories?

Or, are you stupid or what?

y r U poStiNg c0nsp1RacY th30r13z??? or r u juS7 bakcing off n0w???!111!!! (Nerwen)

Translation:

Why are you posting ridiculous conspiracy theories? Or are you just backing off now?

With 12 votes still remaining? I doubt a wolf-on-wolf vote would have been a viable strategy then, especially since Eönwë is suspicious. (Nilp)

Yes, but Eonwe wasn't suspicious then, really, all the attention was on Agan, Form, and Sixth.

Do you think there'd be wolf-on-wolf voting so early? (Kitanna)

I don't see why not. It's not as if anyone would follow the first vote for someone, clearly labeled as "random".

I think my next course of action will be to go back and see if I can figure out who was conspicuous enough (assuming they both picked a loud person) to be targeted both by the wolves and the Ranger - that path hasn't been taken yet, can't hurt, and might help. How long before deadline, may I ask? I wasn't here for it yesterday.

Edit: X'd with Agan and... Elf-warrior. Oh, dear.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to take Kitanna's list to start looking at those who "spreaded" out the votes:

Votes that spread it out
Form
Kit
Sally
Mith
Eomer
Kath
Ka
Durelin

This is going to be very hypocritical of me, because I think way too much focus is being placed on too few people (Eonwe, Agan, Nerwen), thus I want to put more people under the radar.

Form was the first to vote for Nogrod. An IC vote, but I hold what I said earlier, that vote alone doesn't make him a hacker. That's how Formen seems to play Day 1's, whether he's a hacker or not. So, strictly going by his vote, he doesn't look suspicious.

Kitanna's vote for Nerwen. I also still hold to believe her vote yesterday was a well-reasoned one placed by an innocent. It's her early vote today, for Agan, that baffles me (after agreeing with me about Nerwen, and Nerwen looking more 'suspicious then yesterday). Agan must have done a pretty good leap-frog job then for you Kit?

sally's first vote for the Sixth doesn't look all that suspicious. I don't agree with Mith's feeling she was capitalizing on the growing suspicions of Sixth.

Mith's vote for sally does look odd, I find myself agreeing with Eomer that Mith was quick to jump onto sally as possibly being a "bandwagoning hacker" after the Sixth was growing in suspicion.

Eomer's vote for Mith also looks odd, because he was quick to jump on Mith for jumping on to sally. Eomer is one who is quick to react, and always seems to have some sort of trap set. I haven't seen anything else to worry me about Eomer, maybe his vote was an over-reaction to Mith's reaction.

Kath's complete random vote...that also baffles me. It baffles me in the sense that I just don't know what to think about it. I can see a bold wolf come oout and just cast a random vote, while publicly declaring that it is definitely random. I don't know if it's something Kath would do. Maybe I'm foolishly underestimating her, there's not enough on her yet to tell.

The Ka, for Rikae. Of all the vote spreaders, this one looks the most suspicious. Ka said she had a bad feeling about Rikae, and that she couldn't explain it. It's dangerous to let Rikae run wild, but to borrow Eomer's words, this is the vote that looks like someone didn't want to be a bandwagoning wolf. And she attaches the easiest accusation in the books..."Rikae doesn't make me feel good."

Edit: crossed with every post since Ka's

[Eönwë]

Votes so far:

Nilpaurion Felagund- Eönwë
Kitanna- Aganzir
Mithalwen- Elf-Warrior

So, no bandwaggons yet. Everyone's voted for someone differrent.


PS. Internet blip. Last post I saw was Boro's #189

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Sorry, all, I have no time to talk.

++Eönwë

No time to talk now or no time to talk at all?

I am seriously tempted to vote for EW.

edit because I forgot to add that a person who won't be modfired because of voting yet is not speaking is not of much use. Though I think it was quite clear anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Need to vote very soon. Considering voting Mithalwen again but figure I won't get support for that. So I'll probably be content to leave that discussion for Day 3.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actual Vote Count (I feel like phantom! )

Nilp - Eonwe (Eonwe1)
Kitanna - Aganzir (Eonwe1, Aganzir1)
Mithalwen - Elf-Warrior (Eonwe1, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)
Ka - Eonwe (Eonwe2, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)
Elf-Warrior - Eonwe (Eonwe3, Aganzir1, Elf-Warrior1)

Making this the second day in a row that Elf-Warrior's cast a vote for the person with the most votes with no explanation...

Edit: X'd with Eomer.

[Eönwë]

Well, my suspicion of Mith has dissipated a bit. Mith, I don't suspect you as much any more. That is not to say you don't need monitoring, though. You seem to have settled down a bit. I think that there are far more suspicious people on this forum...


To correct my last, post, I will say that maybe a bandwaggon is forming, and against me!

Most suspicious person on my list:
The Elf-Warrior

Votes for me after two others have, and with no reason either. Then again, THE Ka seemed like she didn't think I was guilty, but then voted me.



Elf-Warrior, if you don't sayy someting to convinve me otherwise in the next 30 minutes, I think I might have to vote you.

edit: x-ed with Agan, Eomer and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As to my previous post; I decided to go do something different, and leave the wolves and Ranger - however, I might go back to that later.

Is the deadline in the next hour, then? It's 5:00 PM for me right now.