Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Anguirel and Mormegil:Mormegil's case against Anguriel is very interesting indeed. The contradiction he notices is on of those tings that you either discover because you have played some games with this person and clearly can see the change in play. This does not mean that they are wolves, but it is good base for a suspicion. However it can also be something you discover, because you are a wolf and (in my opinion) have to look very close at each post to find something you can use. This would be a good case for a wolf, if Anguriels style of play has changed then other experienced players will notice it as well and thus it will not reflect that bad upon the one who started it. Since I cannot remember if I have played with Anguirel before, I cannot say which of these it is. Of cause it is plausible that they are just two innocents who is on the wrong track. Right now I lean towards thinking that one of them is a wolf, but for now I would not be able to tell you who. I shall therefore not cast my vote for any of them today, but they will be on top of my list of people to watch closely.

Glirdan- I cannot get a read on at all.

Lhuna - For now I think her inoccent, but this is more or less just based on a gut feeling.

SPM- I will need to see some heavy evidence against him before I will consider voting for him. Sure he is very dangourus as a wolf, but also very helpfull as inoccent.

Holby and Firefoot- After SPM's post (157) I too have come to suspect them, however, there is the chance that they are just like me. Not good at making the big analyse. I will need to read a bit more into each of their post's before making a desition. Both a candidates for my vote to day. . .

TGWBS- Just seems to be a bit crooked to me, but again it is mostly a gut fealing. He to is a possible to atract my vote today.

Jenny- I will not vote for today, as I said earlier.

As it looks now. my vote will likely go to:

TGWBS
Holby
Firefoot
or as a distand candidate Glirdan

[Findëasëa]

I looked through what has happened so far and have recorded some general impressions.

Durelin - She has given no solid opinions or ideas, but this is consistent with behavior that she has exhibited in past games. She did vote for a (now) proven innocent. She later stated that she thought her vote for Nilp was a meaningless throwaway vote. I am not sure that a wolf would say something that could possibly attract a lot of negative attention.

Caranlondien – So far she has acted reasonably. She, as usual, has been helpful and made some insightful comments. She did vote for Jenny with very little reasoning. On day 2 she gave a few opinions about people, but nothing too strong. Overall, she seems innocent to me so far.

Lhunardawen – She only posted once, giving a list of random accusations and then voted for Eomer. This could be an example of a wolf using expectations of how they normally act to hide true motivations or it could just be that she had little time.

JennyHallu – I find her actions to be mostly innocent so far. She tried to call the village to the matter at hand when people were staying off topic and then discussed some serious points. All of her actions, except those surrounding the end of the votes, seem pretty honest to me. I don’t feel that my concerns about the single instance are enough to warrant a vote yet.

Lalaith – In her posts on day one she gives some abstract ideas and helpful suggestions to people. She is against both bandwagons, and votes for Form. I still find her very suspicious, she has contributed, but her contributions are safe. She took no risks and seems to be trying to hide in the background so as to not risk suspicion.

Diamond18 - I am really not sure what to think of her at this point. She has not really made any serious points or observations. From past experience, I know that she enjoys the fun aspect of day 1. From what she has said so far toDay, it seems that she also has been busy. I am slightly concerned about her, because she had the time to go back and make the list of all of the roles of the people who posted first in earlier games but she hasn’t really posted many opinions or ideas about what is going on in this village. The fact that she spent over an hour defending herself against a single comment seems kind of strange. (although, admittedly, the outcome was very informative and interesting).

Firefoot – Her uncommitted vote that put Nilp at 4 votes seemed strange to me. She seems to fit in a similar position as Lalaith. She has acted safely. She volunteers helpful information, but nothing specific about her opinion. She defends her vote for Nilp, saying that he was as good of a person to vote for as any. I am not sure that a wolf would vote in a bandwagon on day one, or give as little justification.

Kath- Nothing to go on as of yet.

Gurthang – He makes some remarks about how Eomer should be lynched early if at all. He also uses a verse in the bible to see who will react. On day two he comments that it is almost good controversial character is gone(Eomer). I think that he might be a little more careful if he was a wolf.

TGWBS- He has only posted twice. He suggested that we ought to not look at the Eomer or Nilp bandwagons, as the wolves were probably counting on this. This point is worth consideration. I don’t really feel he is acting particularly guilty or innocent.

I am going to go back and look at some of the people that I haven't looked at yet.

[Kath]

Well, I'm here, and my day has been much better However to morm I say - no way! I don't care if Eomer died you don't get me.

On the matter of Eomer's death, that was a surprise. With all the suspicion surrounding him yesterDay he'd have seemed a good candidate to leave alive so that they village would talk about him all Day. Had we ended up doing that we'd likely have lynched him and so killed an innocent. So the only reason I can think of is that they thought him the Seer.

Jenny's post 'I TOLD YOU SO' makes me a little suspicious of her. If she was so certain there are only two options. She is either the Seer or a wolf. If she was the Seer I don't believe she would make that so obvious, so I'm leaning towards her guilt.

Ah, must go, back later. I'm only as far as post 127 at the moment as I'm playing catch-up. I'll continue in an hour or so when I get back.

[Firefoot]

Okay, I'm back and not tired... going to try and go through everyone here.

Durelin - Banter on Day 1, vote for Nilp on "ninja business", later calls vote "throw away vote." There's really nothing on Durelin. Her vote for Nilp could be counted as innocent or wolvish. I'd like to see more from her. Borderline.

Caran - Wants to lynch the goose, vote for Jenny because she can be a cunning wolf, speculation on the killing of Eomer, trusts Jenny and SpM, suspicious of Gurthang and Glirdan, unconvinced by Morm, response to Glirdan. Caran seems innocent. She says all the "right" things and seems sensible enough. I'm interested that she votes Jenny, then comes back and says she trusts her. Leaning innocent.

Holbytlass - General Day 1 comments, rather vague commentary, points out some people she thinks may be bluffing, vote for Nilp to keep Eomer alive even though she'd rather vote for Durelin (not wanting to add another candidate to list), attack on Jenny. I am disinclined to suspect her overmuch for her vote, and I'm not sure why you all are suspecting her but not Ang; her vote didn't seem terribly different from his as far as I am concerned, with the exception of her actually wanting to vote Durelin, but I understand her logic. Her rather vague analysis on Day 1 might be called a wolf not really being helpful, but that seems like a normal sort of Holby thing. Leaning innocent.

Findëasëa - response to Eomer's point about people acting normally, comments about lovers, slightly suspicious of Glirdan, Holby seeming innocent, Nilp and Eomer both probably innocent, Lalaith fitting her pattern for wolf, vote Lalaith, thoughts why wolves killed Eomer, suspicious of Jenny, analysis post of select people. I've never played with her before, but she seems to be quite sensible and helpful. Her posts generally aren't long, but they're very explicit and say a lot. She could be a clever wolf, uncontroversially pointing out her suspicions and likely innocents, but right now I think she's probably innocent.

Lhuna - Firefoot and Gurthand lovers, wolves: Fin, Taliesin, tgwbs, vote Eomer. Pretty standard Lhuna... probably innocent.

The rest are coming... I promise.

[Durelin]

The one time I don't vote for SPM... *looks around* good, no one's quite out to lynch me yet.

Personally, I think Eomer was killed because the wolves were feeling cocky. And I mean...they have reason to, for now.

Kinda and 'in your face' move by the wolves...which makes me think that the wolves have a good sense of humour.

Well...that doesn't tell me much. Except I know that Diamond definitely seems the type to pull something like that. But she's by no means alone.

I don't see her as very guilty.

Anguirel's very suspicious. I'm with morm on this one. His vote of Nilp in an attempt to save Eomer seems like a balancing out. That's why I'm also suspicious of Taliesin. It would be interesting if there were two wolves who voted for Nilp and two who voted for Eomer.

Staying under the radar might have come better not voting for either of those two, but it was all silliness anyway. And staying in the silliness on Day 1 I'd say keeps you rather 'under the radar.'

I think Holbytlass is a good candidate for wolfishness because: 1. her posts are always somehow attempts to analyze. 2. her vote for Nilp to tie up the vote...yeah, I know, she knew she would be in the hotseat for that.

And then there's Rune, an Eomer voter. He's posted just enough to stay involved, but not enough to draw attention to himself. His need for an early vote itself is not incriminating at all, and completely understandable, and it is also understandable that he make a rather random vote, but...why Eomer when he already had one vote? If you're gonna make a random vote why not at least make it a bit even or fair...

And then there's Taliesin. His vote made no sense, except to tie it up when it didn't matter. Perhaps to make it look prettier.

So there we have it: 2 Nilp and two Eomer voters.

Anguirel and Holby

and

Rune and Taliesin.

Maybe not the best reasoning, but it's all I have.

Perhaps I should be suspicious of Saucy, though...I'm suspicious of the very person he voted for yesterday, and he's much more amusing than usual. Something might be up.

I'll be back... I'll probably vote for one of those four. Though maybe SPM just for old time's sake.

Edit: Cross-posted with Kath and Firefoot.

[Findëasëa]

Rune- Votes early for Eomer. Thinks Eomer was killed to create confusion and calls attention towards Nilp’s death. Makes comments about how he is not sure, and confused. Gives helpful suggestions. He defends Jenny’s actions. He makes comments about the Morm and Anguirel situation. He makes a few opinions about people known, but these seem to be mostly attributed to gut feelings. Rune seems suspicious to me because much of the opinions in his post are direct responses or reflections of other people’s ideas. This could be a way for a wolf to avoid blame and to create confusion. Also the fact many of his opinions are based on ‘gut feelings’ seems strange.

Formendacil – Says that he is tempted to vote for himself. Jokes about how this will probably get him killed. He votes for Lalaith. He defends his choice to Jenny. He thinks confusion was aim of Eomer’s death, but also that one of the people who voted Eomer is a wolf. Later he defends his vote further, commenting that he was not aware of the tie when he voted. For some reason I find his comment about not knowing that the votes were tied a little strange. Although not beyond reason, especially since he was on a computer at the library, it just seemed very defensive.

That is all that I have time to do toDay. I think that the rest of the people who I did not have time to write about have all been receiving attention as it is. Since I will probably sleep through the deadline, I will vote.

++Lalaith

For the reasons that I listed in post #162. She is most suspicious to me.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Kath

but I understand her logic.

Who said wolves can't be logical?

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Kath

Jenny's post 'I TOLD YOU SO' makes me a little suspicious of her. If she was so certain there are only two options. She is either the Seer or a wolf. If she was the Seer I don't believe she would make that so obvious, so I'm leaning towards her guilt.

You're missing three major possibilities. I could be the Hunter (read the rules: the Hunter knew Nilp's identity). I could be the innocent Lover, and know the identities of the wolves. Or you could realize the truth: I'm innocent, bright, and I'm not the only one who thought the innocence of the two we've lost fairly obvious. I just tried to do something about it, and turn voting towards someone for whom there was actually a case, however shaky, and I got really frustrated when that attempt was completely ignored. Plus, I'm snotty, and I liked being vindicated.

Trying to think who seems most suspicious to me, and trying to decide if Form is really suspicious, or if it's just my frustration from yesterday making me think so.

1. Morm-->Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Lhuna-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1)
3. Rune-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
4. Glirdan-->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1)
5. Nilp-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
6. TGWBS-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
7. Durelin-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
8. Diamond-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
9. Anguirel-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3)
10. Lalaith-->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1)
11. Caranlondien-->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1)
12. Firefoot-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
13. SpM-->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
14. Holby-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
15. JennyHallu-->Holbytlass (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2)
16. Formendacil-->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1)
17. Findeasea-->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2)
18. Gurthang-->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
19. Eomer-->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
20. Taliesin-->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)

No vote: Kath
(copied shamelessly)

Now, to work:

I highly doubt that there would be wolf-on-wolf votes yesterday, not with the potential for mistrust between the wolves. But I do think the wolves were not all in the Eomer-Nilp bandwagon. At least one, I think, voted off, and probably later, after that bandwagon was established. That's what I'd do, anyway. I also think one (a different one) voted early, and of the middle two, at least one voted bandwagon, if not both.

I think there were wolves in both bandwagons, but I may be wrong there.

So: I'm left with four groups of likely wolves, which may overlap:

Early voters: I'm including all those who voted before the bandwagons formed.
Morm
Lhuna
Rune
Glirdan
Durelin
I'm not including Diamond's vote in this category; the Eomer Bandwagon was already fully formed.

Of these there are a few that stand out:
Rune & Durelin: Second votes worry me. To my mind, that's the easiest place for a wolf to hide a vote. The wolf can then rest assured that he has neither started a bandwagon, nor doomed an innocent.


Eomer voters:
TGWBS
Diamond
Taliesin

Standouts: These are more difficult to tell.
Daga'y's vote really was what turned Eomer into a bandwagon.

DiamondI'm more inclined to trust: it seems her vote placement would be risky for a wolf.

Taliesin, on the other hand, I think I worry about most. A late vote (the latest actually) that brought Eomer up to a tie, after Kath had said she would not vote. Therefore a totally safe vote. If Taliesin is wolvish, I would say that he was not the wolf who brought up killing Eomer. His vote would be in a great spot if Eomer were still here gaining suspicion today.

Nilp voters:
Anguirel
Firefoot
Holby

Anguirel: Really it was Anguirel's vote that pushed this into a one-on-one race. However, I'm inclined to think him innocent because of his reasoning: to prevent voting from being a single, concentrated Eomer-lynch. Wasn't a great vote, but not in and of itself suspicious.

Firefoot & Holby are where I think we are most likely to see our wolf (wow, what an original thought!). However, I haven't the slightest idea which it might be, and, if my theory on wolf placement is wrong...maybe neither.

Off voters:
Lalaith
SPaM
Me: Not going to analyse myself. Best left to others.
Form
Fin
Gurthang

Honestly, my analysis is bound to be far less clear on these. Form still makes me nervous. SPaM and Lalaith I am inclined to trust (especially since Lalaith's vote was rather early)

Kath: has got to be innocent. An overly busy wolf would still have some kind of plan for her vote, and I think wouldn't have set herself apart like that.

Therefore: I think the wolves can be found in this (rather large) list.

Rune
Durelin
TGWBS
Taliesin
Firefoot
Holby
Formendacil
Fin
Gurthang

At least I've halved the field...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Eomer = dead. Cast suspicion on voters. Should look at those who voted neither Nilp nor Eomer - the wolves want us to focus on these.

As far as the Eomer voters are concerned, I largely agree with this (while remaining wary of Diamond). It may be worth noting, however, that you have an interest in putting forward such a theory, being an Eomer voter yourself. I am still pretty sure that there is a Wolf among the Nilp voters. The remaining two or three Wolves will be found, I am sure, among those who voted for neither.

It may be helpful to divide the remaining passengers along these lines:

Eomer voters: Lhuna, Rune, TGWBS, Diamond and Taliesin.

Nilp voters: Durelin, Anguirel, Firefoot and Holby.

The rest: mormegil, Glirdan, Lalaith, Caran, SpM, Jenny, Formendacil, Findesea, Gurthang, Kath (who did not vote).

Of the Nilp voters, I believe that either Holby or Firefoot is a Wolf. I remain more inclined towards Holby.

To me, the most suspicious votes among “the rest” category are those which might qualify as safe, throwaway votes or even Wolf on Wolf votes, namely those of Caran (for Jenny), Formendacil (for Lalaith) and Gurthang (for Diamond). Of the three, Gurthang and (less so) Formy look the most suspicious on the basis of other factors. I also remain wary of mormegil for, if anyone can get away with the aggressive, “in yer face” Wolf approach, ‘tis him.

Originally Posted by Kath

Jenny's post 'I TOLD YOU SO' makes me a little suspicious of her. If she was so certain there are only two options. She is either the Seer or a wolf. If she was the Seer I don't believe she would make that so obvious, so I'm leaning towards her guilt.

You know, I too am rather concerned about Jenny. As I mentioned earlier, and as others have commented since, her (seemingly rather frantic) attempt to save both Nilp and Eomer, followed by the deaths of both and thereby the proof of their innocence, may well have been calculated to make her look good.

I am also conscious of the fact that she selected, as her alternative candidate, Holby - the person that I had voted for. So, if Jenny is a Wolf, Holby is (contrary to my Holby theory) most likely innocent. I wonder whether, had she succeeded in getting an innocent Holby lynched rather than Eomer or Nilp, she would have attempted to transfer the blame to me. Or perhaps she was trying to gain my trust. Of course, that only helps me (and perhaps the Seer), but it factors into my thinking.

But there is one more thing about Jenny, although I have been hesitant to mention it. Earlier today, when attempting to explain her behaviour at the end of yesterday, she said:

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Holby, my apologies for my attempted bandwagon against you. I just needed to try and save Nilp, and thought Eomer likely also innocent: and I picked you because I found your logic concerning myself suspect. It didn't work, anyway.

This seemed particularly defensive to me at the time. But of greater note, possbly, is her interesting choice of words with regard to her attempt to save Nilp. She says that she needed to try and save Nilp. That seems to me to be a rather heavy Hunter hint, which is why I was reluctant to draw attention to it before. But, if Jenny is the Hunter, why did she not simply vote for Eomer (an unknown quantity to her) to save the person she knew to be the Ranger? It’s possible she thought Eomer to be the Seer but I can see little in his posts to suggest that he might have been. So, if Jenny is not the Hunter, why is she dropping such a heavy Hunter hint here? It troubles me greatly.

Sorry, Jenny, if you are the Hunter and I have blown your cover. But I figured that, if there is anything in it, the Wolves will have picked up on it anyway.

Edit: Cross-posted with Jenny.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Jenny

I could be the Hunter (read the rules: the Hunter knew Nilp's identity).

You didn't need to blow her 'cover' at all, SPM, if that's what she's covering, anyway.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

You didn't need to blow her 'cover' at all, SPM, if that's what she's covering, anyway.

Indeed. Interesting that she feels the need to make the point again, and this time more explicitly.

Yet the rest of what she says in that post makes much sense and largely ties in with my own thinking.

And surely she can't be a Wolf again.

Perhaps she's the innocent Lover?

Who here fancies Jenny?

[Holbytlass]

Actually, Durelin, I broke the tie.

I suppose the only safe role to reveal would be the hunter because the wolves would not want them dead to possibly take one down. So either she is or a clever wolf claiming the role so we passengers won't be surprised that she is still alive.

suspect list
Durelin
Jenny
Rune
Findeasea

All were the #2 votes-very safe places to be
I suppose Firefoot should be there, too, since the theory goes one of us is innocent and one is wolf-well, I know I'm innocent.

[Lhunardawen]

*wipes tears*

Okay, so Eomer's dead. Sadly, I haven't the time to say much toDay. Does anyone have some of that awful fireflower thing that cured a guy named Eustace Clarence Scrubb of seasickness? I find it difficult to think well while feeling nauseous...

*runs to the railing to do a reverse-digestion process*

But wait. Really, Anguirel, I resent that. Cowardice indeed. I was merely living up to a pre-boarding, uh, promise of sorts. Never had the intention of having him killed...maybe...

But anyways, my pet theory for the Day is that Rune is a wolf. He followed an innocent's - in this case, sweet little me - vote without almost a second thought, and the next Day he's all sorry that his votee died during the Night. And these gut feelings are scary. I use gut feelings, too, and I am scary. And that list...form without substance. Mmhm.

Don't bother about Jenny - she's innocent. It's fairly obvious.

Here goes nothing:

++FIREFOOT

She's the wolf-Lover.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holby

I suppose the only safe role to reveal would be the hunter because the wolves would not want them dead to possibly take one down. So either she is or a clever wolf claiming the role so we passengers won't be surprised that she is still alive.

I really don't think that she is the Hunter. Knowing Nilp to be the Ranger, the best course in her position would have been to vote for Eomer in an effort to save the Ranger. There was nothing to suggest that Eomer was the Seer, at least no more than anyone else.

So why these Hunter hints from Jenny?

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Holby

Actually, Durelin, I broke the tie.

Agh, terribly sorry! My mistake...

Originally Posted by SPM

So why these Hunter hints from Jenny?

They're either accidental, or she's a Lover trying to confuse us. Which means she could be a wolf or an innocent.

Or I suppose she's a wolf, trying to get everyone to think of her as a risky lynch. That's foolish, though, considering she isn't yet in real danger of being lynched. She's bringing herself closer to that, in my opinion.

Wolf is definitely a possibility, though the Hunter hints may be more a mistake than anything else.

And I guess she could be the Hunter, who made a mistake.

Almost any way I look at it, though, I can't see why she would do that - any way I look at it, her hints seem like a real blunder to me.

Maybe we're reading too much into them, calling them hints?

[JennyHallu]

Grr...

I'm not hinting. I was just saying her choices were incomplete.

[Holbytlass]

I kinda agree with you, Durelin, that perhaps we are reading too much into these proclamations. I view boldness in a wolf as calculating rather than hyper/hysterical.

She is running the risk of being the plank nominee for clarification-see if she's a wolf(yea!), a lover (takes down a wolf/traitor), the hunter(takes someone down).
That would probably be me-and I don't want to be a pie*!




*Chicken Run

[Lalaith]

Oh blast. Real life has caught up with me in a major way. There's all sorts of things I want to comment on and think about but there's no time. I'm typing like a demon here with people breathing down my neck telling me to hurry up.
I have to vote. There are all kinds of things worrying me about various people. Formendacil is still acting weird IMO. The Taliesin issue too.
++FORMENDACIL

Last time he felt this callous and detached, he was a wolf.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I have been looking over some of the post's from day 1 and haven't really found that much of interest.

Well there is the thing about

Originally Posted by Taliesin

It seems like it boils down to Eomer or Nilp. I wouldn't say any of them did something that would make them suspicious, however..
after it seemed clear that Eomer was a likely lynching target, JennyHallu goes through everything to defend him. Perhaps she just wants a good player like Eomer around for a while, but it sounds like a wolf trying to rescue another wolf.

Surely a wold would never go out and protect a fellow wolf that strongley. . .If it fails it would be suecide. . . Just seemed odd that is all. but hey, it was a better reason for voting than most of ud had.

When I return it shall be with a vote. . .
(I am at a friend's place so I will only be online once more before deadline)

[Holbytlass]

Since Eomer's death and him being innocent, this theory of Jenny being a wolf defending wolf is a moot point, and proven not to be.

[Anguirel]

If we assume Eomer's death was a frame-up, incidentally, then Rune looks to be its most clear target. Eomer suspected his vote slightly more than that of Engels.

The point someone made yesterday about "masks" could be applied rather forcefully to Lhuna at the moment.

I am prepared to skirt the mire of confusion surrounding Jenny for a bit, being generally more interested, in the great chain of Werewolf, in her accusers at the moment. They are exploiting a potential weak spot as worries generally gather. My vague thoughts are turning towards Findeasea and Holbytlass.

I don't really share the Sassenach's suspicions of Diamond-of all the Eomer voters, she has done the best job of convincing me that she is petty, not evil, and it's a pettiness I often see in myself.

Things are starting to congeal towards those dreaded Lists again.

[Kath]

Back.

Holby's points on Jenny are good, especially that one about disliking bandwagons but trying to form one of her own.

morm's idea on Ang is interesting. It could either be a set-up, or a wolvish Ang trying to make it look like a set-up. morm does seem a little hung up over that though, accusing Glirdan of wolvishness as well for suggesting not looking at Ang right at this moment. The certainty of his view makes me worry, but he does have reasoning behind him, so I would be inclined to think him a tenacious innocent. Hmm, he's a bit jumpy actually, leaping on Glirdan for a comment about liking being suspected.

Di, morm thinking me innocent will last a grand total of 3 days tops. He will then make a case against me and attempt to get me lynched, it's always the way!

Now, theres that strange matter of Lhuna claiming that Firefoot is the wolf Lover. The only way she can know is if she is the Seer (as the Lovers are not same-sex), so if she is then it seems a very early time to reveal, though it would remove one unknown element from the game. The only way to actually test this would be to lynch Firefoot, which I am loathe to do because when innocent she is one of the best players we have.

So at the moment, my suspects are:
Jenny
Ang
Firefoot

What do you guys think about this claim of Lhuna's? I can't decide whether she's telling the truth or not. Lynching her to find out is out of the question because if she is our Seer we can't risk it.

[Firefoot]

Kath – Day 1 banter, says day going badly for her, surprised by Eomer’s death, suspicious of Jenny. No verdict on her yet; I’ll wait to see what else she comes up with.

Jenny - banter, not sure about Sauce, mildly worried about Gurthang, wonders where Nilp is, clarification, says bandwagons against Eomer and Nilp are fishy, votes for Holby to save Nilp and Eomer, says Day 1's can be productive, "I told you so," suspicious of Form, Gurthang, Firefoot, apologizes for attempted bandwagon against Holby, categorical analysis halving the field in which she will look for wolves. She's definitely an interesting one. Generally speaking, I've found that the ones that get most worked up over things are innocent, although Jenny is a clever enough player to bluff that. Right now, she seems likely to be innocent and the accusations against her mostly circumstantial. The thoughts of her being the Hunter don't seem far-fetched to me, either.

Lalaith - General Day 1 comments, says Nilp is acting Nilp-ish, not comfortable with Formen, not sure of bandwagons for Eomer and Nilp, votes Formen, wonders why wolves killed Eomer, says grudge kill is unlikely, finds Glirdan's analyses interesting. I can definitely see an argument for her trying to slip under the radar... she posts fairly frequently, and while her posts aren't really short, they don't necessarily seem to say a whole lot. She sounds very iffy on the points of voting for Nilp to save Eomer and saying neither really seem guilty to her (this is probably bad logic since that could probably be said for a lot of people, so maybe this is just a bad feeling...). I don't know... I'm rather wary of her.

Diamond - Lots of banter, habitual vote for Eomer, finds it ironic that Nilp bandwagon seemed largely to save Eomer, provides first post stats. All I can say is that the way Diamond is playing right now would be a very easy way for a wolf to hide. She hasn't really made much serious contribution to the game yet at all. I'm borderline on her.

Gurthang - Biblical and PotC references, bantering with jesting accusations thrown in, wants to watch Taliesin, finds votes for Eomer odd, Lalaith, Eomer, Nilp not really suspicious, votes for Diamond as a voter for Eomer, annoyed about Nilp having been gifted, not really minding Eomer's death, wants to look at Nilp and Eomer voters, general comments about Nilp and Eomer, confused by Morm, wants a look at Formen, dislikes comments against Jenny. He has made some good points and mostly seems sensible, but I have little doubt he could do that as a wolf as well. For the time being though, I'm leaning innocent on him... nothing really jumps out as wolvish. The Corinithians reference seems almost too obvious for him to be a lover... unless he's bluffing. I could see that. If he's anything, he's a lover.

Formen - dislikes Day 1's, tempted to vote for himself, votes for Lalaith because she voted for him, speculation on Eomer's death, mild defense of his vote. He seems to be behaving rather oddly. I don't know what to make of him; apathetic and detached seem to best describe him.

Glirdan - Banter, vote for Kath, says Eomer was too smart to leave around, thinks it more likely that there is a wolf in Eomer's voters than Nilp's, analyses of Eomer's voters. He seems to be acting fairly sensible; his posts brought up a few good points. If he is a wolf, though, I would definitely look at Nilp's voters closer and assume that there is at least one wolf there. Borderline.

Rune - banter, early vote for Eomer, confused by Eomer's death and many votes for Nilp, not sure about Jenny, analysis post. Mostly he seems to me like an innocent blundering along and not really sure what to think. I don't see a whole lot that looks guilty about him; he just seems to unsure of everything to be a wolf.

Morm - Day 1 type accusations, extremely early vote for Glirdan, dislikes Eomer bandwagon, Day 2 immediate vote for Ang - which I still find odd, however good his reasoning is - says Glirdan is probably also guilty, further accusations against Ang, finds Glirdan's idea to not look very closely at Nilp's voters very suspect, responses and list of gut instinct reactions. Morm is behaving very oddly. Between his early votes and apparent unwillingness to really even consider those other than the ones he has hi-lighted... I don't know. If he's an innocent, what the heck...? I would not be surprised if he had some kind of secret... seer, lover, wolf, whatever. I don't know. I could go just about any way possible with him.

<Ahh! So many of you! Only four left...>

Taliesin - banter, jesting mistrust of Sauce, wants to trust Sauce, says voting for Nilp seems like the easiest thing to do, says Jenny seems to be trying to rescue a fellow wolf (Eomer), votes Eomer. I'm not really sure what to think about him yet. Borderline.

Saucepan - [Sorry, he just says way too much to be easily summarized here...] He has said lots of sensible things, as per the norm, and I find myself trusting him, also as per the norm... um... if he's a wolf, we're screwed? (Okay, this probably looks guilty, not analyzing him like everyone else, but I'm getting tired of these and he does say a lot.)

<Okay, I don't really feel like doing this for Ang or tgwbs, either. No summaries for them, just reflections as I go along>

Anguirel - I find his vote fundamentally similar to Holby's in that they both had other suspects that they wanted to lynch but went with Nilp to save Eomer. I'm not entirely comfortable with Ang's vote (less comfortable than Holby's, at any rate); with more than half the people left to vote, there was still time for anything to happen. (Actually, now that I think of it, I'm not comfortable with Sauce's just letting Ang go, nor others who are doing so...) I like his point early on Day 2 about how wolves might have tried to vote for other people than Eomer and Nilp in order to appear more innocent themselves (it would be working, too - look where most of the blame is going today - to Nilp's and Eomer's voters). I don't know what to think about Ang. I don't want to lynch him today, but he's not off my suspect list, either. I am ready to go either way with him, depending on how things continue to develop.

tgwbs - another one of those who voted early for Eomer without apparent cause. Like Ang, he makes the point to look at those outside of Eomer/Nilp voters. He hasn't posted much at all, making it difficult to get a reading on him, and for that reason I'll say borderline leaning innocent.

I need a break now. Will be back...

[JennyHallu]

Kath: What claim of Lhuna's? Her assertation that Firefoot is the Wolf-Lover? I thought that was just a joke. I didn't think the Seer could See Lover-status, anyway, can he/she?

[Gurthang]

Okay, real quick and then I won't be back just before I'll have to vote.

Saucepan, your insistance on my guilt is unsettling. I did what I usually do at the beginning of a game, which is either fly into some nutty plan (which usually gets me lynched) or say something completely off the wall to get people talking. I was trying to do the latter with the Corinthians thing. Needless to say, it didn't really work, as most of the responses were that it was simply an odd thing to say/do.

The rest of your case against me sounds more intact, and you're points are good. Basically, all I can say is that I post whatever comes to mind. If it makes me look suspicious, well, then it makes me look suspicious. I'm more worried about putting my thoughts out into the discussion than what people are going to think of those thoughts. I want people to talk, and since I'm expendable, I say some weird stuff to get them to talk. Sometimes it gets me in trouble. But I don't mind so much, just as long as there is discussion.

Right now, morm and Formendacil are the only two I've got any suspicions against. If I have time, I'll try to glance through their posts.

[Taliesin]

..for I am finally here.

I'll make a more interesting post later since I've only read some of the posts. I just want to explain my vote for Eomer last day.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

- Okay, this is the most suspicious part of all his posts. He really contradicts himself in his post #83 where he says he doesn't want to follow the Eomer bandwaggon. That makes him highly suspicious in my mind. Another thing that gets me is how much he jokes around until this point. I'm definetly going to keep an eye on him.

Yes, at first I didn't feel like following the Eomer bandwagon, because he hadn't said anything at all and it isn't fair to vote someone off because of his job description. Later, when he said a few things, and gathered a few more votes, suddenly he and especially JennyHallu insisted on the remaining voters to lynch someone else. I started wondering how she was so sure Eomer was innocent, and figured it might be a wolf defending another wolf. So although my vote wasn't going to help Nilp anymore, I figured I should vote for Eomer then, and start making a case today. Boy was I wrong .

About the joking around, that's quite a different story, last time I played half a game as non-Cailin I wasn't around that much. So I only tried to show I'm around a lot more now, or trying too .

[Kath]

Kath: What claim of Lhuna's? Her assertation that Firefoot is the Wolf-Lover? I thought that was just a joke. I didn't think the Seer could See Lover-status, anyway, can he/she?

Yes that's what I meant. Hmm, let's see.

The Seer

Every Night, including the first, the Seer is allowed one dream. The Seer will PM their choice to both the mods and the role of that person is revealed. The Ordinary Lover will appear as an Ordinary Villager to the Seer's eyes.

But what about the Wolf Lover, which is what she claims Firefoot is? Can the Seer see which wolf it is, or just that they're a wolf?

[Anguirel]

Yep, Kath, I think the revision's getting to you...seems to be a joke to me...I think we can relax on that account, at least.

You know, it's just occurred to me that I seem to be the most comprehensively suspected fellow on board. morm's initial campaign was that of an innocent paranoiac, but I'm rather more worried about those who second him...especially Kath, whose point I really can't grasp. "It could either be a set-up." Whose set-up, and of whom, and what? morm setting me up? Ludicrous in my view.

Really, if morm's rant achieved anything it made me surer that my Day 1 theory was turnip juice. I think its bracketting with his continual and equally bizarre assault on Glirdan is reason enough to laugh at it. If I weren't innocent, I'd suspect him of being a Seer who'd got two wolves in two nights, but as it is I put it down to the specialness which makes morm so dear to all our hearts.

He's just suspected me for quite the wrong reasons. If you want to make a case against me, my vote was pretty dodgy and was a far more solid foundation.

I'm going to be having a glance at our resident health and safety operative now.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Holby

Since Eomer's death and him being innocent, this theory of Jenny being a wolf defending wolf is a moot point, and proven not to be.

I am quite aware of this Holby. I was just saying it was a wierd thing to say. When ever I encounter a statement I don't understand I comment on it, as it can be usefull later in the game.

It seems like I have come under suspicion from quite a few people. I cannot defend my vote with other than I told before I cast it. . . I was in a hurry and Eomer seemed as good a choise as anybody.

I found Firefoot latest contribution quite usefull, it could of course just be because of SPM's comment about flying under the radar that this is postet, but I doubt it. Anyways I will not vote Firefoot today.

That only leav Glirdan and Hobly on my list. . .

++Holbytlass

Mostly because I know she is capable of more than she has shown and I always find this a bit suspicious.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have succeeded only in confusing myself today. And everyone else's contributions, while manily solid, have not helped clarify anything for me. But now I must vote if I am not to miss tonight's beautiful game on the magical box.

That being the case, I will revert to my original main suspects of the day: Gurthang, Holbytlass and Firefoot.

Gurthang's defence has somewhat assuaged my concerns over him as, based on my experience of his past endeavours, it rings true. Which leaves Firefoot and Holby. I still believe that one of them is the Nilp-voting Wolf. I am less sure as to which one it is, but Firefoot has come across to me as the more likely of the two to be innocent. So I will stick with the choice that I made yesterday.

+ + HOLBYTLASS

Incidentally:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

<Okay, I don't really feel like doing this for Ang or tgwbs, either. No summaries for them, just reflections as I go along>

You know, I much prefer that to a blow-by-blow account of what each viallger has said. I usually skim through that kind of analysis because, if I want to check what someone has said, I can look at their posts myself. I much prefer to read people's impressions of others. And I suspect that kind of analysis is much harder for a Wolf to hide within.

[Kath]

Ugh, well. I'm going to keep Lhuna on my suspect list because it was just such a weird thing to do.

However, I need to vote now because I may not be here later so:

++JENNY

Because I have been suspicious of her all day for her surety over Eomer and Nilp yesterDAy, but I don't think she is the Seer because making herself so obvious so early isn't a smart thing to do, and we've never really had an explanation from her over that other than 'I'm clever so I know'.

[Firefoot]

Voting so far:

Ang – 1 (Morm 1)
Lalaith – 1 (Findeasea 2)
Firefoot – 1 (Lhuna 3)
Formen – 1 (Lalaith 4)
Holby – 2 (Rune 5, SpM 6)
Jenny - 1 (Kath 7)

Looks likely to be about as spread out as yesterDay's...

Looking at people who voted for neither Nilp nor Eomer (I'm thinking there is at least one wolf in the bunch), I've come up with three rough categories (based on reasoning above):

Suspicious
Lalaith
Formen

Borderline
Morm
Glirdan
Gurthang
Kath

Innocent-ish
SpM
Caran
Jenny
Findeasea

Ironically enough, Lalaith and Formen were the ones who voted for each other... I would say that Lalaith is more suspicious to me than Formen, and she is more likely to get my vote at this point than he is.

I don't really want to lynch any of the borderline people: Morm in case he's the seer, Glirdan for lack of real evidence, Gurthang because I'm just not at all convinced he's a wolf, and Kath because she's hardly been here.

Looking at people who did vote for Eomer or Nilp, they're pretty much all in my borderline list, with tgwbs, Holby, and Lhuna leaning innocent, although Lhuna is slipping. Maybe I've just forgotten how random (lhunatic-ish) she can be. Maybe living way over there (*gestures vaguely*) just does something to you...

You know, I much prefer that to a blow-by-blow account of what each viallger has said. I usually skim through that kind of analysis because, if I want to check what someone has said, I can look at their posts myself. I much prefer to read people's impressions of others. And I suspect that kind of analysis is much harder for a Wolf to hide within.

That's probably true... I usually like to do a bit of summarizing more for my own good, to get thoughts together. But seeing how well Ang's and tgwbs's went, I'm not sure it's really necessary. Takes less time, too...

[Glirdan]

I'm back and there are a few things I'd like to adress before I go and vote (curse you studying!! ).

So, the vast majority of the time an Ordo is a first to post. Not all that surprising, is it? After all, Ordos alway outnumber everyone else. But, most importantly, this rather decries that whole myth that Wolves often post first.

If I wanted to be really thourough I could track the posting order of everyone out of all the games, to see how often one or more wolves are in the first, say, 10 posters. But I'm not actually as insane as I look. At the moment, anyway. Because that would probably yield some very interesting numbers.(Di)

You know, it would be rather informing. Yet, I don't think any of us are quite up to the challenge of doing that at this point...

Highly suspected Glirdan and Caran for low-level sneakery and throwaway votes (indeed spent some time deliriously murmuring "Glirdan or Caran, Caran or Glirdan...", poor chap. Maybe they were his last words.)

I noticed this to. I think he was probably just deciding out of us two who he should vote for. And to clear something up, my vote for Kath yesterDay was completely random. I just looked at all the occupations and her's kind of jumped out at me and said that I could use it as a random vote. You see, unlike my earlier ancestors, I am not one to bandwaggon, even on Day 1's.

SpM = Sense. Good.
Glirdan = Not sense. Good.(Engels)

Care to elaborate for us?

I think Holbytlass is a good candidate for wolfishness because: 1. her posts are always somehow attempts to analyze. 2. her vote for Nilp to tie up the vote...yeah, I know, she knew she would be in the hotseat for that.(Durelin)

These are great reasonings behind Holby's guilt, especially her vote for Nilp. We all knew she knew she would be in the hotseat for it and that could be why a Wolvish Holby would do it, thinking that because she can use the "I knew it would put me in a bad situation" excuse, it would leave her safe and not under suspicion. Definetly worth looking at.

And then there's Rune, an Eomer voter. He's posted just enough to stay involved, but not enough to draw attention to himself. His need for an early vote itself is not incriminating at all, and completely understandable, and it is also understandable that he make a rather random vote, but...why Eomer when he already had one vote? If you're gonna make a random vote why not at least make it a bit even or fair...(Durelin)

I like how you brought up the fact that Rune has posted little. That really worries me because Rune is normally a really vocal player and has great theories. I'm not getting that this time.

I'll be back with another list (not an analysis this time I promise).

[Caranlondien]

Despite my absence for much of toDay (I hate dial-up internet...) I too must vote soon. I've read over what's been going on, and a few things have looked interesting to me.

First, I agree with SpM (whom I trust, for now) about Gurthang, in that his defense of himself seemed genuine. I also agree that there is probably a wolf among the Nilp-voters. Anguirel I just don't find that suspicious. Holby I know nothing about, Firefoot and Durelin I know a bit about, but none of them strikes me as particularly wolvish. Maybe I should go re-read their posts...

I don't know about this whole Jenny thing. Before it seemed like her behavior was just her being true to her personality, but I have to admit her words have sounded increasingly odd. Still, I tend to think she's innocent.

Today (RL) I'm not finding morm as suspicious. Perhaps the shock of his immediate vote for Anguirel has worn off a bit, but I'm still wary of him.

Hmm, I'll be back in a bit, after looking more closely at the Nilp-voters.

[Anguirel]

My examination of Findeasea's posts, as it happens, did not justify my feeling of vague unrest about her. The only unusual thing she's done is to vote with interesting consistency on Lalaith, but Lalaith herself seems to have done the same with Formendacil.

While I wasn't especially comfortable with Holby, I will not vote for her as her campaign appears to be gathering quite enough momentum without me. This leaves Kath, Lhuna and Firefoot; Firefoot perhaps slightly more because her justification of her Nilp vote was really seriously thin. But then, Kath didn't vote at all...damnation...

Oh, now is the hour for blood and bandwagons
Mid howling of lynch-mobs and trading of blows,
Alas for the days when we drained back our flagons,
For now a bitter North wind blows...

[Glirdan]

Here's a list of the amount of posts thus far:

The Saucepan Man 19
JennyHallu 16
Anguirel 13
Glirdan 13
Lalaith 12
Findëasëa 10
Gurthang 9
Diamond18 9
Firefoot 9
Holbytlass 9
Rune Son of Bjarne 9
Durelin 9
Cailín 8
mormegil 8
Taliesin 6
Kath 6
Eomer of the Rohirrim 6
Caranlondien 6
Formendacil 6
Nilpaurion Felagund 4
Nogrod 2
the guy who be short 2
Lhunardawen 2

The ones bolded are the Eomer voters, the ones in italics are the Nilp voters. The ones who are dead are underlined.

Now split it into three groups (eliminating those who are dead and keeping the same format above [Eomer=bold, Nilp=italics]):

Low Posters: 0-6
Taliesin
Kath
Caran
Form
TGWBS
Lhuna

Middle Posters: 8-12
Lalaith
Findëasëa
Gurthang
Diamond18
Firefoot
Holbytlass
Rune Son of Bjarne
Durelin
mormegil

High Posters: 13+
The Saucepan Man
JennyHallu
Anguirel
Glirdan

(I realise how uneven this is and if you have a better way of listing it, be my guest)

Now, if we look at the Low Group first, we have three Eomer voters: Lhuna, TGWBS and Taliesin.

Middle Group, we have the other two Eomer voters (Di and Rune) and three of the Nilp voters (Durelin, Firefoot and Holby)

And in the High Group, the last Nilp voter, Ang.

So, if we follow the old age theory that there is at least one in each group, I think we can draw a list like this:

Quiet: Lhuna or Taliesin
Average: Rune, Holby or Firefoot
High: Ang

Now, it is possible that there is another wolf out of those, but it is also more likely that there is another Wolf amongst the quiet voters.

And now my thoughts are all muddled together...great...Wait, there is reasoning behind this madness...I just need to try and extract it from my brain... AHAH! I think I got it.

Okay, first, I'll bring up an updated voting list:

1. morm-->Ang(Ang 1)
2. Fin-->Lalaith(Ang 1, Lal 1)
3. Lhuna--Firefoot(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Lalaith-->Formendacil(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1)
5. Rune-->Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1)
6. Saucy--> Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2)
7. Kath --> Jenny(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1)

(Just realised Fea did this earlier, however, this goes along with my plan).

Seeing as there are already three of the Nilp voters up there, I think one more person from the Eomer voters should be added and preferably, I'd like it to be either Taliesin or Lhuna for these reasons:

Taliesin: Has defended himself yet his sudden switch of mind really doesn't put me at ease.

Lhuna: Has barely posted and voted with absolutely no proof or reasonable evidence behind them.

Of the two, Lhuna looks more guilty. Therefore,

++Lhuna

If you need me, I should be around until the end of the Day.

[Anguirel]

I'm going for Lhuna after all, not Firefoot. Her grudge against Eomer and her leisurely attitude are simply too suitable a disguise. I'm sure she would have delighted in last night's kill and expected to be to obvious a choice to be picked to avenge it.

Glirdan's vote for her just now is unfortunate for me in a way, but I was resolved on this course before he posted.

++LHUNA

[Caranlondien]

I find myself trusting Durelin. She seems normal, and sensible. I have to admit I'm hesitant to vote for Holby just because of the bandwagon that it would likely start. But I don't know about Firefoot; her long analysis-posts aren't what I would expect from a wolf, as wolves tend to be a bit overconfident at this point. Then again, with a traitor in the wolves' midst, they may be just as interested in analyses.

Hum-ho, what to do...

Oh, as for Kath, I don't think she's a wolf. She dared not to vote yesterDay, and I don't think she'd be so bold as a wolf.

And despite SpM's corroboration of the fact that once upon a time Glirdan did analyses all the time, I can't help but continue to feel nervous about his change in behavior. I'm hesitant to go strongly on this, though, because if he is innocent, analyses are welcome, and I wouldn't want to discourage him from them. Anyway, just keeping him on my radar.

[Caranlondien]

1. morm-->Ang(Ang 1)
2. Fin-->Lalaith(Ang 1, Lal 1)
3. Lhuna--Firefoot(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1)
4. Lalaith-->Formendacil(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1)
5. Rune-->Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 1)
6. Saucy--> Holby(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2)
7. Kath --> Jenny(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1)
8. Glirdan-->Lhuna(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 1)
9. Ang-->Lhuna(Ang 1, Lal 1, Firefoot 1, Form 1, Holby 2, Jenny 1, Lhuna 2)

[JennyHallu]

Rune
Durelin
TGWBS
Taliesin
Firefoot
Holby
Formendacil
Fin
Gurthang

Of these, these are those I'm considering voting for today:
Rune
Durelin
Taliesin
Holby
Formendacil

Why just these? Mostly because I am less familiar with them, and thus they make me more nervous than the others. I'll be back in about half an hour, with whatever analysis I have time for and a vote before the deadline. Luckily, I don't work next Day, and should have time for more thought and analysis. (HA! Not in my life! I spend only a few moments of Sundays at home, and will be voting hours early!)