Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I'm inclined to think that Menel is innocent. He quickly called Kath's cobbler comment into open view.

I hate to just agree with everyone but I agree with you on this point.I believe him to be innocent...*for the time being*

I'm wondering why everyone is so quiet today...Everyone coming up with a good aliabi I hope.

I would like to hear what you find out about Kath's posts Gurthang

[Alcarillo]

Well, I'm headed to bed soon, so I will vote now, even with the minimal discussion.

I think Menel is innocent, that malkatoj's and Naria's excuses are reasonable, and I can also see the reason behind voting for Gil-Galad or for Nilp (both are confusing). People seem to be blowing Cailin's post today (after Garin's and before Kuru's) out of proportion, but Kuru does say Cailin was mentioned by Kath. Maybe the former didn't pick up on the latter's cobbler-clue, or thought it was just an odd choice of vocabulary.

Let me go look at Kath's post. I shall return shortly.

[Alcarillo]

Well. Hmmmm. If I were a wolf, I would go after somebody who accused me a tiny bit, somebody who could become a rival later in the game, but not somebody to whom I am a main suspect. Does this fit Cailin/Kath?

*sigh* What the heck! I'll vote for Cailin!

++Cailín

[Cailín]

I’m rather surprised at all the reactions to the post in which I mentioned Kath’s odd choice of words! Surely, yes, I noticed and could have not missed it after Meneltarmacil pointed it out, but the ability to read hardly makes one wolvish. I hope more innocents here ‘know where to look for’, cause otherwise analyzing seems pretty pointless. Anyway - you might not believe me, but when I go over those other old werewolf-related legends two particular instants jump out in this respect. There was this one time when a traitor managed to ensure the slaughter of an entire village because no one picked up on the clues he left the villains. And there was another instant in which a certain wolf was too thick to pick up on some rather obvious choice-of-word clues, made a bad decision and was killed during the first Night. All in all, I try to catch these things as much as I can. Of course, this does not make me more or less guilty, just attempting to clarify something.

Such early votes from Alcarillo all the time! Yes - Kath indeed voiced some worries concerning me, but I felt it could hardly be called an accusation. I also wish to add that even though Naria and malkatoj have excuses for being bandwagon persons, Nilp was still the safest vote yesterday and I would not be surprised if there is a wolf - perhaps 2, not excluding Nilp himself - among those who voted for him. But then again, a wolf likely voted for Gil as well and yesterday was an excellent opportunity for wolf on wolf voting (and strangely enough Farael / Eluchil jump to mind). Gurthang has said it earlier - Eluchil is acting a bit strange, accusing everyone who has accused him, but then again, newbies often do.

I see Garin is a little less vocal today, Nilp is still talking in riddles and some people have yet to make an appearance. I think Menel is in the clear, with me, for now. I do not think he’d sacrifice such a valuable possible teammate as the Cobbler so easily.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Menel

Anyhow, I am quite sorry to see another innocent dead; however, as I said before I was simply trying to keep Nilpaurion Felagund's attempt at suicide from succeeding. I was actually going to vote for Lhunardawen, but since Rune had already voted for Gil-Galad, my other primary suspect, I figured that there was more of a chance that Nilp wouldn't die if I voted for Gil-Galad (TGWBS's vote doesn't count here, as that was a cross-post). That said, I will likely vote for Lhuna today.

You know, dear creepy guy, you remind me so much of a certain Lhunatic I know...

With that said, I'm inclined to believe you're innocent. And that mention of Kath as a potential cobbler yesterday earns you more points from me. But I do know how tricksy and sly you can be; for all we know you urged your fellow lycans to kill Kath to get you off the hook. It's not as if the cobbler can be that big a help to you anyway, so as far as your cover is concerned she's completely dispensable. But no sense jumping to conclusions for now.

This whole cobbler-being-killed-on-Night-2 business sounds so familiar. This time I think the werewolves have actually pegged Kath as the cobbler but wanted to throw us into confusion. That, or we're dealing with novices who aren't used to picking such clues up, but that's more unlikely than the first.

As for my vote for Nilp, it was a matter of practicality and limited time. Seriously, if you'll look at it from some twisted point of view, one ordinary villager being killed can help us in some way to locate these rotten werewolves - especially if they are particularly confusing ones. Right now I think Nilp is most likely innocent, but we never really know.

[Garin]

Garin has taken ill and is talking in the third person, at least in this sentence.
So I saved Nilp the Selbstmörderischer from the rope, let me bring up an earlier post of mine:

Nilpaurion it is foolish to offer yourself to the noose, unless it is a bluff. I play a strange new game from the west named Pokr that you bring to mind.

I soon found out from Nilp and others that this is a common practice of his, I suspected a bluff but considered the advice of veterans, one of them being Kath, for pete's sake. He does it all the time! I'm starting to fear that my original suspicions might be correct now.
Nilp became an easy vote and seemed a decent refuge for werewolves. Gil, most unfortunately, was among them.
Now I hate to cross swords with Gurthang but he was willing to allow a tie, which would leave the deciding vote in the hands of lycans. In retrospect, this might have been a good tactic. Suspicion would be directed to the survivor, a potential wolf. Personally, I would rather die than let the wolves decide anything. They already had their feeding hour and basically slit their own throat. They are either idiots or devious. (Great insight, I know.)
My list of suspects is long and my Nyquil *cough* is kicking in. I am hoping to have more quality over quantity for you on this day.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

OK, let me explain our DAY 1 strategy.

DAY 1 is a practically illogical day, where the only way you could catch a werewolf is if:

a) the werewolf had a slip of tongue.
b) the seer dreamt of a werewolf and decides to tell the village about it; or
c) random chance.

More often than not, c) is operative, and it usually fails (the chance of catching a werewolf is 3:19, in case of this village). The chance of lynching a gifted is much higher, 4:19. Call us cowards for not wanting to risk voting for someone else who is more likely to be gifted than to be a werewolf, but we prefer to err on the safe side.

Also, on DAY 1, with nothing to fall back on but our respective jobs, sometimes slips are made (like what Kath did, intentionally or unintentionally). This, coupled with the voting strategy, is what we are trying to look at now.

Be back in two hours or so with a vote!

Respectfully,
The Home-owners's Association of Nilpaurion's Mind

[Lhunardawen]

How time flies...and I'm still as clueless as ever...

++ELUCHIL

makes me feel a bit uncomfortable. I don't have any proof, of course, but it might be good to spark a little more conversation...

[Amanaduial the archer]

Well, well, I hate to sound hard-hearted, but that was a little unexpected bonus: looks like, as Garin pointed out, the wolves have lost a friend indeed. Still, one enemy dead, but still no pelt for my saddle-rug, something I hope will be remedied by this evening!

Originally Posted by Lhuny

As for my vote for Nilp, it was a matter of practicality and limited time.

++ELUCHIL

makes me feel a bit uncomfortable. I don't have any proof, of course, but it might be good to spark a little more conversation...

Spark a little- spark a little conversation?! Good lord woman, what kind of (lupine) monster are you?! These are people's lives, and you'd place a vote simply for the sake of sparking conversation! I mean, I don't disagree with you, Eluchil's behaviour on some fronts - continuous attacking, trying to form alliances left right and centre (possibly to allay suspicion?), jumping to and fro form conclusions and accusations - all rather erratic behaviour - and the growing suspicion from others in the thread backs up that my thinking that he is maybe a little suspicious is not entirely out of the ordinary - but without reasoning? Pah!

()

Now Nilpaurion...ah, Nilpy nilpy nlipy woops slip of the tongue nilpy... He, well, he is certainly an enigma. I can't work it out! He seems so fixated on proclaiming his guilt - should this be suspicious or not?! If this is a double bluff, it is certainly a very elaborate one, but why would he go to so much trouble? If he isn't simply suicidal, then Nilp is a self-proclaime attention seeker, which made me initially suspect him as the Cobbler, on the grounds of seeming to try to distract the conversation away from any useful speculation onto a focus on himself (not a criticism at you, Nilp, I'm merely stating facts) - but now the Cobbler is dead, I just don't know what to think!

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

If I were a wolf, I would go after somebody who accused me a tiny bit, somebody who could become a rival later in the game, but not somebody to whom I am a main suspect

Well now, Alcarillo, if that ain't a suspiciously competitive attitude, I just don't know what is. Garin was accused of looking to the future, but Alcarillo goes a step further: he makes bold statements about the future, and, further than that, he assumes that the wolves will not be caught, and that he will not be caught, although whether those two statements are in fact one and the same, we are yet to find out. Competition? Would it not be better to work together to try to catch out the wolf, rather than viewing each other as 'competition' - for what, meat?! Maybe not - for a wolf!

Maybe, on the other hand, we should consider why the wolves want us out of the village - seems peculiar to say the least. It could either point the finger at, or clear the name of, Rune. A hobbit - from a land far away, maybe hoping to expand?! But then, a peace activist - I've heard that, although those guys can organise a wild rave, they ain't so big into the murder and digestion of their fellows, however big an appetite they have. So for now, I consider him to be perhaps the one safe bet.

What about malkatoj? A professor of philosophy, he says - a job with plenty of time on his hands, so I've heard; is he sleeping the days away rather than studying, ready for a wild night on the rampage? Or maybe this all an (admittedly very elaborate) mind-test? Sure, you may say this seems a little strong but who knows what goes on in the mind of the philosopher?

Hmm.

For now, I shall cast my first vote (not sure whether I will be able to post tonight, y'see), as my first suspicion in this post:

++Lhunardawen

[Meneltarmacil]

Not a lot of time to post, heh heh, but I'll do what I can.

I'm not sure what to make of Nilp at this point. He's most likely just an ordo trying to get killed or the boldest wolf in the world. As for Lhuna, her explanation doesn't seem to quite clear her in my opinion. I'll post again later, but have to go now.

[Amanaduial the archer]

He's most likely just an ordo trying to get killed or the boldest wolf in the world.

I seriously doubt it's the latter, so maybe we do indeed have a case of the Infamous Ordo Syndrome (thus named as of now)...

*nods wisely*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I have been accused of Cobblerism (which I'm not), of seeking attention (I certainly am revelling in it now--Infamous? Me? ), and of pulling a bold double-bluff (as I once said, I usually tell the truth or pull a bluff; double-bluffing is hard work). Which is all good and well, but the only words I would trust now are those from me (because they were formed by someone I trust absolutely) and those from the dead (because they can't change their minds)--unless some gifted villager shows up, of course, but I don't speak for them.

Of course, despite not trusting your words, I do heed them. The Mangekyou Sharingan is upon you.

With this said, I'll now throw my sensible (for me, at least) deductions.

The Death of Kath

She was killed because:

1) she pointed a finger that was seen as threatening
2) she defended a werewolf; thus her death will make said defendee (now I'm making words up?) look innocent
3) the Werewolves are toying with us; or
4) they killed someone at random.

I can't address 3) and 4), obviously. So what if they went with option 1 or 2?

Now, in 119 Kath suspected:

1) guy and I of being allies
2) malka, because of a funny feeling; and
3) Cailín, because of the way she posts.

She also defended Lhuna.

I know I'm not a werewolf. I don't know about guy, but I don't see anything striking about him so far. (I know, you'll read this as 'Hey, look, they're obviously allies!') malka is already on my hastily-made original Suspicious's List, and now she seems to be steering suspicion away from her. (156) Cailín . . . she seems overly defensive. (164) Touchy, touchy.

It also seems cute (in a twisted sort of way) that both Menel and Cailín intended to vote for Lhunadaga (daga!) but voted for Gil instead. Coincidence? Perhaps, perhaps.

Lhunade-hime's early vote did not surprise me, but her vote for me did. She, of all people, should know the depths of my attention deficit. I am, in the words of our language, kulang sa pansin, KSP for short. Why, why?

Well, her name did show up twice. She looks to me like a good vote for now.

++Cailín

Oh, and:

DAY 1 is a practically illogical day, where the only way you could catch a werewolf is if:
. . . c) random chance. (my post)

Nice going, Emily. 'You could only catch a werewolf if random chance.'

[the guy who be short]

I'm here!

And I have three things to say. Maybe four.

The first addresses people attacking me, albeit mildly, two days in a row for being quiet. Please consider my location and my profession. On bad days, I probably wont be able to talk until a few hours afore nighttime.

Secondly, the death of Gil. *Shrugs* I stand by the vote. I explained the vote when I cast it. Nilpaurion always tries to kill himself. Anybody voting for him comes under suspicion. The newer villagers don't know this, and I thus discounted them from the people voting for Nilp. This left Gil and Lhuna, of whom the latter appeared more suspicious to me. In any case, even as confusing as he is, I believe Nilp to offer better quality analysis than Gil. So call us allies.

This leaves Lhuna, who now looks increasingly suspicious with her random vote.

I'm also suspicious of Alcarillo for the rationale behind his voting.

Additionally, I'm suspicious of Kuruharan. Perhaps it's a subconscious knee-jerk reaction, but we all know the intellect this dwarf possesses. He has too much of the air of a scholar subtly manipulating the others.

Adios until just before nightfall.

[Garin]

Valier said:
I hate to just agree with everyone but I agree with you on this point.

That is all you have been doing is agreeing with particular people and casting safe votes that do not bring you into suspicion.

.So I will go with the smallest bandwagon for I also agree with Farael on this one so my vote is for...
++ELUCHIL

A vote that had litttle chance of amounting to anything but shows you out of the Nilp and Gil bandwagon.

I agree with Kuru, I thought you both were a little quick to accuse,then lynch,poor Gil-Galad! I don't see what was so suspisious about him.

You are almost my antithesis. So agreeable Valier, always playing safe and weeping the loss of a villager, false tears , perhaps. Plus, I own nothing but black cats to guard my feed from field mice, I mistrust white ones. (Best reason to lynch ever.) Sarcasm again.
I could continue but I think I have pneumonia.

[Cailín]

How peculiar, it seems like you have to vote for yourself to avoid suspicion in this village. It is strange how Nilpaurion has suddenly lost all desire to murder himself – he hardly even tries to look suspicious anymore and is currently under most people’s radar. Rather ironic if he should turn out to be a very bold wolf who has developed the perfect strategy to elude suspicion.

Also, I start to see Lhuna and Nilp’s point and am reconsidering the wisdom of other people and me voting for Gil yesterday. He had left already and little chance of defending himself, and with the current werewolf / gifted / ordo ratio, we are pretty darn lucky he turned out to be an innocent. We could have easily killed our Seer or Apprentice: there was slight evidence against Gil (yes, his vote was not brilliant, but he seemed to be in a hurry) and the only reason I preferred him dangling on the noose yesterday was because I was inclined to (not) trust Nilp and he generally offers (as he has shown today) somewhat better and especially more extended insights.

Though I hate accusing anyone voting for me, because people think you’re ‘touchy’ when doing that, I have certain doubts concerning Alcarillo as well. He was quick to vote both yesterday and today, did not really participate in discussions to avoid suspicion and has cast a vote for me with very little reasoning (though I cannot guarantee I am fully objective when it concerns something as precious to me as my own life).

I think Garin has made some valid points about Valier in his post above, so I shall not repeat them here.

[Kuruharan]

First of all, I’d like to say that certain individuals who are casting their votes seemingly at random are making me nervous. Whether they are wolves or not they aren’t exactly helping the Cause.

Secondly, I too have been wondering about Valier. And contrary to what some have said, she's not just been agreeing with everything everybody else has been saying.

Take post 150.

In that post she was the first to really accuse Cailín of being a wolf. Then post after next, Eluchíl seconds her. Then sometime later, Alcarillo comes in and casts a rather hasty vote for Cailín. Could this be an attempt to start a bandwagon on the part of one or more wolves?

I don't know. They might be right actually. The only way to find out is to get rid of a few of them.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Garin

Now I hate to cross swords with Gurthang but he was willing to allow a tie, which would leave the deciding vote in the hands of lycans. In retrospect, this might have been a good tactic. Suspicion would be directed to the survivor, a potential wolf. Personally, I would rather die than let the wolves decide anything. They already had their feeding hour and basically slit their own throat. They are either idiots or devious. (Great insight, I know.)

Actually, the rules now state that the first villager to achieve the tying total will be lynched. I didn't realize that it had changed until after I had voted.

Originally Posted by Amanaduial

Well now, Alcarillo, if that ain't a suspiciously competitive attitude, I just don't know what is. Garin was accused of looking to the future, but Alcarillo goes a step further: he makes bold statements about the future, and, further than that, he assumes that the wolves will not be caught, and that he will not be caught, although whether those two statements are in fact one and the same, we are yet to find out. Competition? Would it not be better to work together to try to catch out the wolf, rather than viewing each other as 'competition' - for what, meat?! Maybe not - for a wolf!

Now this makes me suspicious, much more so than Alcarillo's comment that she was talking about. I think you read way to much into that little phrase. It would almost stand to reason that she had nailed your tactics and so you wanted to shoot her thoughts down.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion

Nice going, Emily. 'You could only catch a werewolf if random chance.'

When did Emily show up? I've never heard out of her before...

Looks like Nilp beat me to an analysis of Kath; I still haven't had time to read through her posts. I'll probably still do it, but my analysis, if any at all, will be short.

So many people are doing little suspicious things, I'm finding it hard to even keep stuff straight. Right now: Garin, Eluchil, Valier(too agreeable and non-commital), Lhuna(early 'random' vote), and Cailín(largely due to other's comments which I find sensible). I've also been wondering about Nilp, but I doubt I'll vote for him toDay.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

All I am saying
Is give peace a chance
All I am saying
Is give peace a chance

Everybody's talking about. . . (gets the news of the death and Identety of Kath and brakes down in tears)

Wow that was wierd! I have never before expirienced people rally behind me like that! I was sure that Nilp was going to die, then I found out that Gil was innocent and now I really feel bad.

It was actually kind of wierd as I spoke against bandwaggoning and by chance I startet one my self.

Nobody really stands out to me right now, but I will say this: I dont think we should belive Menel to be innocent just because he pointet out the cobbler thing, there is no reason a wolf would not do that.

I will be looking into things and return with my thoughts.

[Garin]

Gurthang= Actually, the rules now state that the first villager to achieve the tying total will be lynched. I didn't realize that it had changed until after I had voted.

I had not realized that and thank you for bringing it to my attention. However, what was your reasoning for putting it into the hands of the demon dogs? You could have lynched at that moment. I,of course, waited until the last minute to save myself, if the need arose.
Gurthang, I like to think you innocent, why did you tie the vote?

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Garin

That is all you have been doing is agreeing with particular people and casting safe votes that do not bring you into suspicion.

I don't thing my vote yesterday was a safe vote.I voted for who I thought was the most defensive and suspisious!

Originally Posted by Garin

So agreeable Valier, always playing safe and weeping the loss of a villager, false tears , perhaps. Plus, I own nothing but black cats to guard my feed from field mice, I mistrust white ones. (Best reason to lynch ever.) Sarcasm again.

I am soooo sorry for weeping for an innocent villager,but he was innocent,and My safe vote was not for him! I know I am not a Wolf! I really want to lynch a real one today!

I'm still undecided as of my vote yet, I am leaning towards Cailin,Garin,Or Lhuna...their posts have been slightly wolfie to me,I will look into it a bit more before school

Oh and aren't black cats sort of shifty?

[Garin]

Variel: Oh and aren't black cats sort of shifty?

Oh, agree but they are good mousers. They sit and stare at me while I sleep. I believe myself to be cursed by them and blame them for my current ailment. However, the Hello-Kitty look is far more disturbing. Guess who has a fever?

[Cailín]

There are votes and suspicions against me because:

- Kath indicated that she found my posts worrisome (though not insensible nor particularly strange, only because she was agreeing with me. Since she is the Cobbler she probably did not think me a wolf, really, and probably only said she agreed with me, while really thinking the opposite. Or not.).

Originally Posted by Kath

In fact Cailin has come to my attention a few times while reading through this thread. Very quick to accuse but is hanging back on a vote. Thing is that everything she says makes perfect sense and is exactly what I'm thinking (which is why it's driving me nuts and making me suspicious of her).

This is the quote in question.

- I pointed out that I suspected Kath to be the Cobbler, because of her use of the word cobbled. (and while I ensured Meneltarmacil would live another day – likely – people consider me wolvish for noticing).

So what it seems your saying is that Meneltarmacil is not a wolf...But you fail to mention anything about yourself...Maybe you picked up the hint as well, because you knew what to look for.(Ahem..Wolf).... Excuse me.

Uhm yeah. I explained.

Originally Posted by Eluchil

I would have to agree with you. Cailin is quite dodgy. Perhaps too dodgy. Could it have been a slip of the tongue? He let something about his fiendish plots go accidentally and inadvertantly? Curious...

Her fiendish plots definitely do not involve getting lynched. This post is nothing more than simply agreeing and nodding, while making someone suspicious of you (for I mentioned Eluchil’s name a couple of times) appear in a questionable light.

Cailin and Meneltarmacil are getting kind of cozy in their big furry coats. Maybe one is the Alpha Female and the other is the Alpha Male.....hmmmm

And another time my name is mentioned without any reasoning at all.

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

Well. Hmmmm. If I were a wolf, I would go after somebody who accused me a tiny bit, somebody who could become a rival later in the game, but not somebody to whom I am a main suspect. Does this fit Cailin/Kath?

It does not. Obviously, I was Kath her main ‘suspect’, cause I was the only one she mentioned multiple times and questioned directly. I would not have killed Kath – because of the previously mentioned ‘cobbled’ and because Kath is very capable of gathering suspicion by herself, with her non-voting and non-commiting statements. ;-)

- I react to the votes against me in a ‘touchy’ manner. (sorry *sniff*, I get a little emotional).

By all means, lynch me. I might just deserve it. I hope you’ll find it helpful, though I have a hard time picking out the wolves and I know of my own innocence.

As an alternative to suicide, I’d be in favour of lynching (though this might yet change before the Day is done):

Nilpaurion Felagund, just to be on the safe side.
Eluchil, because I suspect him the most right now.
Malkatoj, because of her disturbing silence.

Though I think my death might be most telling today. But you would lose me. Which would not be fun.

[Farael]

Lhuna has already cast a vote for Eluchil and that is bad news for me, as voting for him again would be seen as bandwagoning. While I don't like his game so far, his actions remind me of a story I heard once about a village of werewolves infiltrated by brave heroes... the plan went sour, but what I remember is that this big, bad wolf called Farael acted somewhat like Eluchil (hint: I'm talking about the last WW game, my first ever... for those of you happy to jump and accuse me of werewolfism)

If Lhuna who is fairly suspicious had not voted for Eluchil I might have stayed true to my first vote but I neither want to join Lhuna nor fuel a bandwagon.

Cailin has been pretty jumpy and she is not a rookie in this kind of dealings and this last quote unsettles me a little

Originally Posted by Cailin

Though I think my death might be most telling today. But you would lose me. Which would not be fun.

Isn't our goal rid our formerly lovely town from the influence of those terrible werewolves? if Cailin is suspecting someone she should say it out loud so that should we lynch her, we would know exactly what she meant.

And then there is the issue of Garin. Sticks his neck too far out and then slowly reels it back in with almost empty posts (at least meaning-wise) I'd like to propose a scenario.

Suppose Garin is a werewolf, along with at least one more experienced f(r)iend. During the day, werewolves are impeded to talk to each other secretly, so the experienced fiend could not tell Garin to calm down a little. After the day was over, and probably while enjoying Kath's hope-it-was-poisoned flesh, the experienced werewolf told Garin to take it easy else he got killed.

And now we get what we see, Garin still posting a fair bit on a slow day but saying VERY little in his posts. If anything, accusing Valier who is a bit of a safe bet, although she sounds suspicious I'm not yet willing to go after her head.

I have my eyes set on Garin now, and I shall vote him unless something unexpected happens, but I am in no hurry for the time being.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Farael

Lhuna has already cast a vote for Eluchil and that is bad news for me, as voting for him again would be seen as bandwagoning.

Not nessesarily if you make a good case and don't just copy what other have said it is quite allright. If we were not allowed to vote for the same as other people this would be wierd indeed.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Not nessesarily if you make a good case and don't just copy what other have said it is quite allright. If we were not allowed to vote for the same as other people this would be wierd indeed.

Oh, I agree, but I don't think I can make a good enough case, and my vote for Eluchil would be just a continuation of my suspicions from the former day. I'm not as worried of being suspected as I worry about starting a bandwagon against an innocent. I am not certain of Eluchil guilt (or anyone's for that matter) and so I will hold off on my vote for a little bit

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I have been giving this a bit of thought and there are currently two people that somehow stands out to me. This is purely based on me thinking that they are playing strange. Those of whom I speak is Garinand Meneltarmacil

Garin: Is very defensive and talks about that he is sticking his neck out by being vokal. He sais he saved his vote incase he needed to save him self, but was he ever in any danger? Sure some had raised suspition and might have votet Garin in the end, but a mather of fact was that he only had one vote and Nilp 5! There really was nothing indicating that it would be him that was to be lynched. Then he cast's the vote that seals Gil's destiny. He claims that he is taking a chance by beeing vokal, but is it not true that people often suspect those who is more silent and the wolfes would benefit more from killing a silent person who does not suspect anyone and therefor does not leave a trail.

Meneltarmacil: Is acting odd and it makes me wonder, is he a wolf hiding in the spot light? I am sure that he is bold enough to do so. If we add the fact that he was the one who oficaly made it Gil bandwaggon, then he does not look so good in my eyes.

Well that was my thoughts, I will go and look at who you suspect and comment on them next and then proberbly a vote.

[the guy who be short]

Menel pointed out that Kath was the cobbler. I do not believe a wolf would do this; the lupine goal would be to discover the cobbler, then ally themselves with her/him closely.

Kuru attacks Menel for his vote, understandably, and then Valier attaches herself onto the same statement. Hmmm. Not to mention the vote for G-G at a key point.

So, the three so far chosen are Cailin, Eluchil and Lhunardawen. Other than the latter, the others have not struck me as overly suspicious. I suggest we divert our votes elsewhere.

Frankly, I'm not sure what to do.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Originally Posted by Garin

I could continue but I think I have pneumonia.

Uh huh, yeah, way to get the sympathy vote!

Originally Posted by Valier

: Oh and aren't black cats sort of shifty?

Good lord, and I get accused of over analysis? Hmmph!

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Now this makes me suspicious, much more so than Alcarillo's comment that she was talking about. I think you read way to much into that little phrase. It would almost stand to reason that she had nailed your tactics and so you wanted to shoot her thoughts down.

Confusion: Gurthang, Alcarillo didn't actually mention my name. And if I wanted to shoot her down quite so much, surely a far quicker way of distraction would be to attack her more directly...by voting for her. But I am certainly not as suspicious of Alcarillo - as of some others.

I find my concern turning to Cailin actually at the moment - her last post was entirely defensive, rather than really properly asking questions into other people's guilt or innocence and helping towards the Wolf Effort. However, as she rightfully points out, it was Kath who really instigated such suspicion - which makes me consider that she is probably not in fact guilty, at least, not if the cobbler knew the identities of the werewolves (did she?) - it doesn't really work that the Cobbler would try to kill those who she was supposed to be helping. Who. Whom. Ah, whom cares...

I therefore stand, for now, with my vote of Lhunardwen.

[Kuruharan]

I'm not as worried of being suspected as I worry about starting a bandwagon against an innocent.

I don’t agree with this. You can’t be worried about how a vote seems. People are going to notice how votes look based upon the results. Unfortunately, beforehand there is no way to know which theories are right or wrong. The only way to find out is by testing. At the moment, we are all effectively operating blind. The only way to learn is to get a wolf and the only way to do that is experimentation. Once we do that we can start tying things together. If you start a bandwagon against an innocent, yeah, that’s going to be bad for you. However, there’s just no other way. You should always vote how you think and not worry about being wrong.

Now, what I think is that I’m still finding Garin suspicious, but today I’m more inclined to focus on Valier. My basis for this is her seemingly excessive agreeability combined with some subtle pointing toward Cailìn. However, this now brings up Cailìn’s status. Unfortunately, I’m unsure of how to proceed from here because this will involve getting rid of one of them, but how to choose. And then where to go if this whole trail goes cold?

And why hasn’t malkatoj been posting more? At the moment I’m inclined to believe in her innocence, but…

[Garin]

Rune posted:
Garin: Is very defensive and talks about that he is sticking his neck out by being vokal. He sais he saved his vote incase he needed to save him self, but was he ever in any danger? Sure some had raised suspition and might have votet Garin in the end, but a mather of fact was that he only had one vote and Nilp 5!

Near the end of the voting there were enough left without votes to give me the deciding vote on my fate. Not being suicidal, I waited. I could be wrong, my strength is not with numbers as yours is not with words. However today I feel like 'pulling a Nilp.' Meaning, I don't care today.
My vote will probably go to Valier or Lhuna today, but I am not committed.
This old posting of mine went unnoticed, perhaps ignored.

Quote: Farael
I shall be looking at you, my friends, and I hope you forgive me if I ever suspect the wrong person.

Forgive me but this could be translated as "If my voting pattern looks guilty please ignore it."

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

And why hasn’t malkatoj been posting more? At the moment I’m inclined to believe in her innocence, but…

I too think that it is odd that she has been gone for so long, but I will wait a day or two before judging if she is a wolf or not. (I am a bit suspicios about her)

Originally Posted by Lhuna

This whole cobbler-being-killed-on-Night-2 business sounds so familiar. This time I think the werewolves have actually pegged Kath as the cobbler but wanted to throw us into confusion. That, or we're dealing with novices who aren't used to picking such clues up, but that's more unlikely than the first.

This is why I will not write Menel off as inoccent, actually I need the seer's word before I belive in the inoccens of anyone.

Luhna if you are a wolf I will start weeping for once again I am convinced of you innocens!

People I am most likely to vote for today:

Meneltarmacil
Garin
(If Malkatoj should be here, but I will give her time)

People I belive innocent:

Luhna and only Luhna.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Garin

Gurthang, I like to think you innocent, why did you tie the vote?

Read the last sentence of the part of my post that you quoted. I didn't now about the rule change until after my vote was already cast. I thought I was forcing the wolves, but the rule had changed without my knowledge.

[Garin]

So Gurthang you purposely put the decision in the wolves' hands? I understand that you misunderstood the change in the rules, as did I. Was it a tactical move or are you a wolf?
More of a rhetorical question.

[Gurthang]

Quick thoughts... No time...

Let me just say that voting for someone who already has votes is not bandwagonning. Voting for that person because they have votes is. It's more about motive than the act.

Amanaduial, I know Alcarillo didn't mention you specifically, but you were the one who responede.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Garin

This old posting of mine went unnoticed, perhaps ignored.

Forgive me but this could be translated as "If my voting pattern looks guilty please ignore it."

I think we all read what is going on pretty carefully and if your comment was ignored then it might have not been a coincidence. I won't excuse myself as on the first nights no-one has anything but gut instinct to go on and sometimes the gut reaction can be wrong.

Still, this Garin has over-extended his welcome and I will not be getting no worms for him no more. See how he says he suspects Valier or Malk, then proceeds to repeat himself on an accusation over me and on his following post, suspects Gurthang who was trying to make the wolves choose who would die(and so possibly shed some light into who they are).

This is far too suspicious for me, as he is starting to accuse people again after I called him on taking it easy on the finger-pointing after sticking his neck too far out (see my second to last post, I don't have the number with me)

No, this sounds all too much like a wolf who's game has been exposed and now is trying to back-track to avoid suspicion

This is why, and taking into account that I have to go NOW else I'll be late for my microbiology... erm I mean, worm hunting, I shall cast my vote for

++Garin

[malkatoj]

Again, sorry for my absence. No, I'm not sleeping away the day, just in classes. Silly school.

Anyway, I find both Lhunardawen and Alcarillo's early votes suspicious. Neither of them have a lot of (or any) reasoning behind them.

Well. Hmmmm. If I were a wolf, I would go after somebody who accused me a tiny bit, somebody who could become a rival later in the game, but not somebody to whom I am a main suspect. Does this fit Cailin/Kath?

(Alcarillo)

Though there had definitely not been enough of an argument or anything between to two to constitute a rivalry (at least, not how I saw it) this at least has some reason behind it and I'd like to leave it alone for a little while. I think, however, that we should pay attention to Alcarillo.

How time flies...and I'm still as clueless as ever...

++ELUCHIL

makes me feel a bit uncomfortable. I don't have any proof, of course, but it might be good to spark a little more conversation...

(Lhunardawen)

This one, now. A wolf knows who's innocent and who's guilty, and would therefore have a more difficult time finding guilty looking people among those he knows to be innocent. Lhuna claims cluelessness here--I'm inclined to suspect that it's quite the opposite and that she knows too much to pretend otherwise. Especially for a fairly early vote when she could have stayed for a while and voted then.

I don't think I'll get on again tonight (apologies, blame my teachers) so I'll vote for

++Lhunardawen

[Cailín]

I find my concern turning to Cailin actually at the moment - her last post was entirely defensive, rather than really properly asking questions into other people's guilt or innocence and helping towards the Wolf Effort. However, as she rightfully points out, it was Kath who really instigated such suspicion - which makes me consider that she is probably not in fact guilty, at least, not if the cobbler knew the identities of the werewolves (did she?) - it doesn't really work that the Cobbler would try to kill those who she was supposed to be helping.

In all honesty, this does barely mean a thing. The Cobbler has no clue who the wolves are so the only thing it proves is that Kath probably did not suspect me.

People who I think - for the moment - innocents (in no particular order):

Amanaduial (I'm actually pretty sure about her)
Azaelia (despite her disturbing silence... she's always an innocent)
Meneltarmacil (because of reasons explained before)
Farael (because of his vote for Garin - by which a wolf would draw unnecessary attention from this game's greatest loudmouth)
Gurthang (because I wish to believe he's innocent)
Rune (he seems to be thinking along the same lines as me)
Nilpaurion Felagund (because of his suicidal tendencies and his recent rehabilitation)
TGWBS (because I fully agree that we might be going in the completely wrong direction)
Lhunardawen (because I also wish to trust her)

People who I am slightly concerned about

Garin (due to his worrisome ability to easily slide between the lines and his strategy that reminds me of a particularly cowardly kid playing ring and run - no offense intended, naturally )
Alcarillo (because of his early votes and general lack of contribution)
Eluchil (because of reasons stated previously)
Kuruharan (just because he's too clever without really proving it)
Malkatoj (silence is always a bad sign)

People I just plainly do not understand

Valier
Naria

I hope I did not miss anyone!

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Cailin

People I just plainly do not understand

Valier

I don't get what you don't understand about me? Can I help you out in any way?

I would like to point out Garin's weird behavior,I know others have noticed as well,but I want to state my theory
Why the sudden attack on me? Couldn't find anything else to accuse me for other than my "Hello Kitty" Avatar!

I do admit that the curcumstances surrounding my comment on Cailin,were a bit out there but that was just what I observed from her post.Then someone else votes for her and it looks like I started some what of a bandwagon.But I did not vote for Cailin because she's not quite as suspisous as a few others.
I only want to kill me some wolves!!!

[malkatoj]

Cailin!

Malkatoj (silence is always a bad sign)

Go read the announcements thread, it's nothing I can help.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

OK I have made up my mind. I will not be voting for Menel as it will be to no use and to give him the benefit of the doubt. Therefor I will vote Garin


++Garin