TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

This is a critical break for us and our voting yesterday should help being that 3 of us voted for Cailin, it would seem to clear LMP, Firefoot & myself; though not 100% I think the three of us can be trusted.

Encai gave the second vote to Anguirel to make it 3 for Cailin and 2 for Ang

Mister Underhill tied the vote between Anguirel and Cailin

Feanor cast her vote for Boromir88 making it a three way tie and if left a three way tie both Boromir and Anguirel would die, at least one is innocent and most likely Boromir is innocent too.

Lhuna Broke the tie and essentially put the nail in Anguirel's coffin. Now this was a wise move on her part either as an innocent or a wolf. Innocents don't want double lynching this early and wolves want to look like the prevented it.

So what does this all mean? I think Feanor and Mister Underhill are most suspect in this whole affair. Feanor caused a three way tie and Underhill tied the vote hoping to save Cailin.

What do others think?

Thanks for your relative confidence in me, Morm; it was your consistency in both suspecting and voting for Cailin, that led to my cautious confidence in you, since I also found something in Cailin's post that was unsettling. Thus my vote; in fact, I was waiting to see which of the 41-51 posters you would vote for, and was pleased to see it was Cailin.

I do find the persons you listed above to be the most suspect, even Feanor, though you realized her error in judgement, confusing Anguirel & Cailin. Nevertheless, though it may be that pain and difficulty breathing may have hampered her judgment, Feanor is clever enough to use such spurious reasoning to look innocent when she is in fact an evil minion of Sauron, if that is the case; so I wouldn't write her off your watch list just yet.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Mormegil, Firefoot & LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.

After Cailin got her third vote, Enca and Mr U both voted for Ang in succession. However, Boromir and Shelob already had two votes at this point, so it would have made more sense, if Enca were a wolf, for her to vote for one of these. Enca therefore makes my innocent list, Mr U makes my wolf list.

At the time of Feanor's vote, Ang and Cailin were tied. A wolf would have voted Ang. Fea therefore appears innocent. However, she could have counted on somebody breaking the tied afterwards, as voting for Ang would make her look suspicious afterwards.

Lhuna now appears quite wolfy, though her vote could just be down to chance.

Whereas I appreciate your confidence in me (quite happy to have gotten one right for a change!), I'm somewhat startled by the confidence with which you forge ahead. These conclusions seem reasonable and sound on the face of it, but there is very little that we can take at such face value in this game. One point of argument I have with you is in regards to Feanor's supposed innocence; I'm not saying she's not innocent, just that I'm not convinced - yet. Another is Enca, whom I feel you excuse too easily. I am solid agreement with you as regards Lhuna & Mr. U..

[Mister Underhill]

I'm looking back over these supposed magic #41-51 posts, trying to see what other such as lmp "saw" in Cailin's posts that gave him away, and I'm seeing nothing. Can someone help me out here? How did you guys zero in on Cailin? Or is at least one of you running a double-bluff and "knew" it was Cailin because, well, you really knew it was Cailin?

[the guy who be short]

I appear to have come under a little fire for my former conclusions. I shall therefore re-assess everything I previously stated. Like most reassessments, the vast majority of people will finish worse off.

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.

Hmm. Morm voted when two other people had two votes each, so it looked unlikely Cailin would die. He could still be a wolf, I guess, but looks neutral to me at the moment.
Firefoot and LMP are not wolves. Definite. There is simply no reason a wolf would willingly vote for one of their own on the first day when there was a serious chance of that wolf being voted off, no matter what Feanor claims.

After Cailin got her third vote, Enca and Mr U both voted for Ang in succession. However, Boromir and Shelob already had two votes at this point, so it would have made more sense, if Enca were a wolf, for her to vote for one of these. Enca therefore makes my innocent list, Mr U makes my wolf list.

I stand by this. Though the evidence seems less strong now, it would still have made more sense for a wolf-Enca to vote Shelob or B88. Enca seems innocent.
I am now far less sure about Mr U's lycanthropy than I was before. He could potentially be a wolf; however, maybe I'm just sentimental, but his plea seemed genuine to me. I put him on my "wolfy" list. His tie could have been an attempt to save Cailin though.

At the time of Feanor's vote, Ang and Cailin were tied. A wolf would have voted Ang. Fea therefore appears innocent. However, she could have counted on somebody breaking the tied afterwards, as voting for Ang would make her look suspicious afterwards.

Feanor still looks innocent to me. No reaon to cause a triple tie, including at least one fellow wolf, when she could have just voted Ang and be done with it.

Lhuna now appears quite wolfy, though her vote could just be down to chance.

Lhuna was forced to break a tie. This is never easy. I'm ust not sure.

After this, it will appear that I have contracted extreme schizophrenia. Such is life. Here is a list of votes for those who would like another look:

Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

Wolfy:
Mr U
Lhuna

Neutral:
Morm

Innocent Looking:
Enca
Fea

Innocent:
LMP
Firefoot

Now, there are several people who have been left off my list. I have absolutely no confidence in my Wolfy list, though I'm certain of my conclusions concerning people's innocence. I will most likely vote for somebody who has not yet been mentioned, somebody flying under the radar, to use a cliché.

[Formendacil]

And so another day comes, with another day's killing, and thanks be to the Valar, Eomer managed to catch us our first Werewolf. Compared with my past life in another village, this is a great improvement- except for my new job of course. Shovelling refuse when I used to write it is no improvement...

And now, to my personal feelings...

Estelyn seems a little be out of place. Her vote for Shelob yesterday truly does seem random, and she has certainly not seemed entirely comfortable in all this confusion. On the other hand, she's definitely an intelligent lady, and the whole "out of place" business COULD be a very careful ploy to appear innocent.

tgwbs also seems reasonably innocent. His vote for Shelob also doesn't seem particularly menacing. However, I have greater qualms about him than about Estelyn. He is, after all, a dwarf experienced at life in villages with Werewolf problems. If he was the Werewolf, then he would likely want Shelob removed, knowing her reputation as being too smart to survive long.

Boromir, having voted for me, is naturally somewhat suspicious in my mind. But I'm willing to let that pass as having been a random vote. However, he plays an uncanny game, and it is possible that he was a Werewolf looking for a random vote to throw away on Day 1.

Shelob, as the one who started voting for Anguirel, could have been an innocent villager casting a random vote. Anguirel WAS, after all, playing a rather foolish game with that "lynch me" bluff- especially once they took him up on it. However, Shelob doesn't seem that suspicious.

Mormegil's vote for Cailin at the point in the game that he voted is rather suspicious. With Cailin getting tied up as the third person with two votes, it is quite possible that he was a Werewolf trying to appear as her opposite- a villager. On the other hand, he is the one who brought her up to what I'll call, Bandwaggon status

Firefoot's vote for for Cailin at this point seems to exonerate her. After all, it put Cailin squarely in the lead, which would be a very dangerous move for her to make. A thought that came to me, though, is that Firefoot very deliberately voted for Cailin, hoping to get her lynched off, and so have an "innocent" status for the rest of the game. A very unlikely possibility, but one that occurred to me... On whole, I'd say that Firefoot is innocent.

Where Firefoot's vote for Cailin can be construed to look suspicious, I suppose that lmp's is even worse in the same way. The question, though, is whether or not lmp has the audacity to kill off a fellow Werewolf. I don't know him as well as I'd like, but I tend to think that, in spite of his bluster, he would have a hard time casually sentencing a fellow wolf, when there was no danger to himself, so easily. And so, I think him (for now, anyway) innocent.

Enca's vote for Anguirel brought the Anguirel bandwaggon back to live after a fairly long hiatus. This could be another Werewolf, trying to divert suspicion, but there isn't really any evidence to suggest that she wasn't doing just what she said she was doing: voting for a suspicious character. However, she's definitely someone to keep an eye on...

Mr. U was suspicious for frivolous reasons when I voted for him yesterday. They are much more concrete today, when we see that his vote is what brought Anguirel up to a tie with Cailin. If Encaitare is suspicious regarding the idea of a Werewolf trying to save Cailin, then Mister Underhill is doubly so. And there is still that "frivolous" matter of his keen intelligence and "playing dumb" act...

Fea is suspicious just because she is Fea. She could also have been a Werewolf trying to save Cailin, for her vote also brought Boromir up to the same amount of votes as Cailin. A risky maneuver that late in the Day, and not one guaranteed to save Cailin, for it was quite possible that Lhuna would not have made it in to vote in time, or that if she had, she would not have picked Cailin. On the other hand, Fea is known to have sacrificed others for her own sake before, and has said as much in her post (#143) this morning. Right up there with Mister Underhill on my suspicions list.

And then there's Lhuna. Her vote for Anguirel saved Cailin, and if the Werewolves hadn't been so unfortunate as to kill Eomer last night, Cailin would still be with us today- trying to kill someone. Overall, I don't think Lhuna as likely a Werewolf as Fea or Mister Underhill, on account of the timezone difference, but I am also hesitant to declare her innocent on the basis of that as well.

All in all, I am most suspicious of the late-voters. Fea and Mister Underhill top the list, with Lhuna and Encai sitting somewhat lower. After that, I think it either TGWBS or Boromir, but those two register very low on the suspicion scale...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Since that horrible thing that is the world outside of Erbar Telemarth just made me very upset, I'm going to direct my anger somewhere far more productive than swearing a lot and kicking things; namely... here.

I figure I should let you all know that I will refute no suspicions against myself. If you have actual evidence that is leading you wrong (by wrong I mean "she's obviously a wolf because") I'll actually bother to correct you. But there is little point in my arguing about why you shouldn't suspect me, because I'd yell at you if you automatically assumed me innocent. That's as bad as automatically assuming that a wolf wouldn't vote off their fellows. It's sloppy, and sloppy is only good when it's planned sloppy.

You should all suspect me simply because there is no proof in my innocence. My word is obviously not good, as if I was a wolf, I'd be lying through my teeth... or, more likely, telling the flat out truth and letting you think I was lying. It takes a lot less effort to double-bluff than it does to just lie. So my point is, since you should suspect me, I won't tell you not to. You should decide either to lynch me and regret it in the morning, or let me live and maybe hopefully not regret listening to what I say. I say maybe because I can't guarantee being at all right. I say that to let you know that I'm not Seer. I also say it with the sad realization that outright stating "I'm not Seer" means that I can't lie later to save someone I think is the Seer, unless of course I use the ruse "Why would I admit to it? Of course I'd lie!" In any case...

Those that I currently most suspect are those that voted for Cailìn. Following them, I suspect TGWBS. He's not as... in depth as usual. It makes me wonder if he's maybe trying to play a slightly different game than he normally would. I had expected lists, theories, strategies, and psychoanalyzation. Day 1, I saw weredwarvery.

I've got to run to class, but I'll check in yet again later.

[Mister Underhill]

I wish I could take credit for a crafty "playing dumb" game, but if I'm doing dumb stuff, it's unfortunately just dumb stuff. You've all been in werewolf-stricken villages before and have some past history to play off of. It works against me doubly -- not only am I in the dark about your different styles in a werewolf crisis, but I am an unknown quantity which naturally makes people suspicious of me.

It's maddening really -- it seems we have very little to go on except for the vote and the timing of the vote, and knowing as I do that my own vote and its timing were just this side of random, I have almost nothing to base suspicions upon. I almost wish I were a wolf, just so I could feel a little more in control of the fight.

I'm not sure why Lhuna has already cast a vote for me. "For reasons already stated above," she says, but she never mentions me at all in her previous post. Maybe she means reasons stated by other villagers?

[Encaitare]

It is good to know that Eomer's death was not in vain.

Originally Posted by Mr. Underhill

There are a few things to remember about the voting. One is that Ang offered himself. This was incredibly foolish! None of you innocents do it again. Not only does it make you look suspicious, but in a situation like last night, where there is almost no information to go on, it makes you seem a safe vote. Enough of us will die under the jaws of these things without us volunteering.

Thank you for stating so well exactly what I was going to say. Anguirel was a safe vote, which is why many of us chose him. Certainly we regret it now, but you all must admit that at the time it made sense.

Since Mr. Underhill is now participating more, my suspicions of him have waned. Lhuna's very early vote is questionable... I know she has a big time difference, but she managed to vote later than that on Day 1. Her breaking of the three-way tie by voting for Ang could come off as suspicious... but she her "reasons stated above" may have been the reasons I offered. Only she can tell us that, though.

Those who voted for Cailin:
1. Mormegil
2. Firefoot
3. lmp

Mormegil voted for her when there were already two people with two votes each, and many people with one each. He may have thought that people would bandwagon onto those with two, Shelob and Boromir, and that people would ignore his vote for Cailin. Later, he may have thought, if she was found out, he could fall back on that vote to say that a wolf would not have voted for another wolf on Day 1.

Firefoot I am not sure about. Probably innocent, but it could have been a bold move.

LMP is most likely innocent. I'm reluctant to say definitely, even though I am really willing to rule him out right now, just because I don't want to set anything in stone. But I sincerely doubt that a wolf would have voted for Cailin and put her in the lead to be lynched.

Again, I shall be back tonight, and maybe later this afternoon as well.

[the guy who be short]

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.

Reinforced my Firefoot innocence theory.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.

Not quite sure what to make of this. One could easily be a wolf - Cailin could be voicing suspicion but not voting so she could later point this out. For some reason I'm not entirely sure of, I don't trust Shelob.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.

Not sure what to make of this. Esty seems more or less innocent to me. Cailin seems to be saying that it's worrying that she doesn't want to lynch Esty - why is that? Is Esty a wolf?

The greatest evidence I have to go on points to Mr U and Shelob. Why Shelob? I know that the two people she accused, namely Ang and I, are innocents. I can't help but feel suspicion. It is now a question of which one of the two I shall be voting for.

Originally Posted by Fea

I suspect TGWBS. He's not as... in depth as usual. It makes me wonder if he's maybe trying to play a slightly different game than he normally would. I had expected lists, theories, strategies, and psychoanalyzation. Day 1, I saw weredwarvery.

I'm being as in-depth as my booklore allows! I have given lists, theories and pseudopsychoanalyses (). There's little I can offer in the way of strategy.

[mormegil]

Something we seem to have forgotten from yesterday that was never answered is Formendacil's reaction in this post. I just don't want to overlook people that we had some questions of yesterday.

About suspicions on me, I am glad that we are still thinking of everybody but we do need to take advantage of such a big break and I would be surprised if one from my earlier list

Encai
Feanor
Mister Underhill
Lhuna

is not a wolf. I'm reticent to state that the two wolves would be in there and doubt it greatly. As far as Feanor goes I think I'm probably the best one to know how Fea-wolf would operate and I've seen some characteristics I would expect but others that make her seem innocent in my eyes. She's by no means off the top of my list but I don't think I'll go for her today.

[Boromir88]

Boromir, having voted for me, is naturally somewhat suspicious in my mind. But I'm willing to let that pass as having been a random vote. However, he plays an uncanny game, and it is possible that he was a Werewolf looking for a random vote to throw away on Day 1.~Formendacil

Maybe I voted for you, because I thought you were a wolf? And you still may be.

Don't know what to make of Fea. Seems geniune enough with her "gotta suspect me," but she's probably telling the truth. We gotta suspect her, because she's a wolf!

Lhuna is just playing way too dumb to be a wolf. Now there's a fine line between bold and dumb, and Lhuna's playing dumb. Casts the deciding vote for an innocent, then goes ahead and votes really really early...But I guess she's either a fool of an innocent, or a dumb wolf.

I got to suspect Firefoot. She seems to be getting off scotch free here. No one's really suspecting her, some are writing her off as an innocent, you just got to suspect someone who seems to be getting away so much. And I suspect anyone who tries to write people off as innocent (tgwbs? mormegil?)

Oh, and Firefoot, the reason I'm innocent, because if you notice I have not been wrong yet. I said that Anguirel and Eomer who both voted for me were innocent (and look they were). I also said that Fea and lmp are wolves and that still may be the case.

[Firefoot]

I've been in and out a lot more than I had thought today, hence my lack of posts. I'm glad to see that most of you are finding me innocent; hopefully that doesn't make me a target for the wolves tonight.

Right now my suspect list is comprised of six people, in roughly this order:

Formendacil
Shelob
Mr. Underhill
Lhuna
Fea
TGWBS

The last three (Lhuna, Fea, and TGWBS) are more neutral than suspicious, but I don't want to narrow my list too much so early in the game. I haven't written off any of the rest, but they don't seem as suspicious to me.

Formendacil and Shelob are still my choices for wolves; however, it seems odd that all three wolves would be in the first half of voters. Granted, there are RL commitments, but it still seems that the wolves would want to leave someone around in case things start to go horribly awry. But then, maybe that was part of the strategy. People who vote earlier tend to look less suspicious than those who vote later, depending somewhat on the outcome. But I think that one of them is probably a wolf - I'm not certain, but that's how it seems to me.

A Formendacil/Mr. Underhill combination would be interesting - it would mean that Formendacil is playing a bold game, having voted for him. Bluffing? Maybe. Before his vote for Mr. U, Formendacil didn't mention him at all as being suspicious - his list was lmp, Anguirel, and Morm - either innocent or in a very innocent light right now. Would Formen try to play this bold a game? At that point, only four other people had been voted for, one of them himself. Hm.

That's all I have time for right now, I'll likely expand/revise later.

Edit: cross-posting with Boromir and Morm.

[the guy who be short]

I would like to vote Shelob due to gut instinct and distrust of her.

I would like to vote Mr Underhill due to apparent evidence against him.

Shelob won't gather much support. Mr U will. Shelob will possibly incriminate me. Mr U won't.

Oh well.

++Shelob

Originally Posted by B88

And I suspect anyone who tries to write people off as innocent (tgwbs? mormegil?)

Erm... you need to sort out innocents. Otherwise you may as well vote more or less at random.

I am wandering off to bed now. I would like to make a few more points.

Feanor has mentioned that we should not trust her. This would be a very Fea-wolf thing to do - ironically mock-incriminating herself. I still think she seems innocent.

Lhuna - quite a chance of also being a wolf. Odd behaviour.

Good night Men and Women.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I am trying to piece the evidence together, but nothing seams to fit.

Before my brain switches off for the night, I must make my choice. Underhill expresses my feelings as a new player so well that I hesitate to vote for him. I would like to believe him a fellow innocent, though I am not entirely sure. Two of my other suspects have voted extremely early today - Shelob for Lhuna and Lhuna for Underhill. I have no specific suspicions of Enca, who was the second to vote for Anguirel, a position that was not particularly critical.

Since I have concentrated on those four, as I explained above, I am not looking too closely at the others yet. I need more clues, and if I am allowed to survive, I intend to collect them. Here are my thoughts so far, for what they're worth:

mormegil is an uncertain candidate, with his suspicions that don't quite sound consistent to me.

Boromir's insults alone do not make him a candidate, but there are inconsistencies in his posts that make me pause.

Formendacil's suggestion that all of us not vote is in itself suspicious. His suspects are villagers whom I don't suspect, so he could be a wolf, but I don't have enough evidence yet.

Fea is unpredictable.

Firefoot defends Shelob, who is one of my top suspects.

tgwbs' arguments seem fairly sound to me; so far, I have no reason to suspect him.

LMP hasn't yet given me enough clues to his identity in his input so far.

I know myself to be innocent. That leaves 11, 2 of which are wolves. If we're lucky, the cursed villager won't be caught. So far I can't recognize the seer, but that's probably good. If I could, I'm sure the experienced wolves would as well!

[Boromir88]

Erm... you need to sort out innocents. Otherwise you may as well vote more or less at random.~tgwbs

I think that's ok for a day. Because, it does sort out who seems innocent, and who doesn't, and kind of narrows down the field. But, to say the way they voted the day prior makes them automatically innocent, is something that I say is wrong.

My time to vote has to come. It's Thursday, I have to go at 6 and serve on a panel for this Pro-school bond issue. I'm such a caring member of the community, it's a wonder why no one trusts me.

[Boromir88]

I am actually having the thought that our two wolves haven't voted yet, and seeing as Lhuna and Shelob won't be back (from my understanding right?) they're easy targets to go after and get people to follow them. I really must suspect those leading against Shelob and Lhuna.

[Boromir88]

Triple posting, because I must go and eat here, and nothing's changed since my last two posts. So, I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil

Believe it or not, second day in a row, and no one's convinced me to vote otherwise. I was thinking of voting for Feanor, but her statements have (believe it or not) swayed me for today.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, I must risk incurring Boromir's suspicion, probably even that of others, but my gut feeling today again points me toward Shelob. I hesitate to vote a second day for the same person - and in tandem with the same person, tgwbs! - but there's something there that jars with me, though I can't put my finger on it to explain. Therefore:

++Shelob

G'night all!

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Expect the worst and prepare for it. How hard would you kick yourselves if I'm right in my vague suspicion of LMP (agian... )? You've immediately discount him based on faulty evidence just because of the assumption that nobody would be that audacious. ... Just... please don't underestimate? Please?

Actually, I quite agree with this, except, of course, about Fea's suspicion of me. Which is why I'm not letting Fea off the hook either.

Now get to work, wench.

[Mister Underhill]

Now I'm in a pickle not of my own devising. By an accident of timezones and deadlines, it's very easy for me to vote late. Do I wait and gather more information? Do I vote now so that it doesn't look like I'm waiting for a chance to swing the vote?

I'm still suspicious of Feanor, who warns us not to trust anyone, won't say she's innocent, and cast a critical vote yesterday.

I'm not sure where the Shelob suspicion is coming from other than that she's playing an almost silent game.

I'd still like to hear one of the Cailin trio tell me what caused them to cast their vote as they did -- especially lmp, who put so much stress on posts 41-51 but has never really explained why as far as I can remember.

I'll hold my vote for a little while, I guess, to see if answers to these questions develop.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm not assuming the innocence of Morm or LMP, though it does seem likely. There were six people already voted for when Morm voted; he could have easily voted for one of them if he were a wolf. I'm thinking that LMP is a wolf only if the third wolf hadn't voted yet. I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a wolvish ploy to try and vote out one of their own, but with the voting so broad, it was quite unnecessary.

If LMP is not a wolf, therefore, then the third wolf had not voted yet, which means it would have to be Enca, Mr. U., Fea, or Lhuna; just to follow your reasoning one step further, Firefoot. By the way, I think you are wise not to assume the innocence of Morm or me, not because we are werewolves, but because the evidence is too limited to draw such strong conclusions.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Edit: the only way to clear up the Fea confusion is the time tested method of lynching her.

Well, yes, you do have a point there.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Then yours truly blunders in and creates a situation which would have hanged both Cailin and Anguirel. I can see why this casts some suspicion on me. Well, I can only say that I should have been more attentive to the way the vote stood. My vote was cast solely for the reason I gave in my vote post -- "He's offered himself, so it's either a safe vote or I'm calling his wolfish bluff." -- and without regard to the tally, which I see now was a mistake.

If Feanor is a wolf who held her vote until very late, she made a good one -- not tipping her hand by saving Cailin with an Anguirel vote, but creating a situation which could have led to a double-lynching that would have taken down Boromir with her fellow wolf.

I have to admit that my own analysis leaves me looking more likely a werewolf than not, but I can only plead inexperience and restate emphatically that I am innocent. Have the seer dream of me, put me to any test. I don't much like being in the position of knowing that I'm innocent but having suspicious eyes cast on me, but here I am.

The sheer guilelessness of your post leaves me leaning toward your innocence, Mr. U.. I do see, however, that your first day's errors (if that is what they were) have led immediately to some pretty astute thinking regarding Feanor.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

I'm still suspicious of Feanor,who warns us not to trust anyone, won't say she's innocent, and cast a critical vote yesterday.

Hilariously enough, you've just reminded me that I forgot to actually tell you why I won't say that I'm innocent (which I am ) any more. It's because I was running late and only just made it to class on time when I realize "oh crap, I'm running late" and posted quick.

I'm not going to keep saying this because either you believed me the first time, or you didn't. Once you get an idea in your head, nothing I'm going to insistently say will turn you. It's a waste of time and energy to keep refuting, when all that will do is distract from what's important: actually catching the baddies.

And I agree with the trouble of timezones. My own late vote is enough for that. It looks like "oh, Fea held off her vote as a wolf to _____" filling in the blank with whatever you like. It's not even that. I'm a college student which means I'm up 'til all hours getting homework done. As I'm in EST, "all hours" includes those in which Days and Nights end. I simply take advantage of all of the discussion to try not to waste my vote when anything could happen to make me think "oh, this one's a wolf. It's obvious now. Time to vote!"

X's and O's, and off to homework. Even though it's still early.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Another thought:

So Cailin would have died with Boromir? I thought Ang would have... That's not cool. I wanted Boromir to die, but I wasn't expecting Cai to. Heck, I still want to off Boromir. It's just one of those things...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Something we seem to have forgotten from yesterday that was never answered is Formendacil's reaction in this post. I just don't want to overlook people that we had some questions of yesterday.

It was Day 1. Everyone was, to quote the famous saying: "innocent until proven guilty". Personally, I found there to be lack of substance behind Boromir's vote for me. True, ALL votes that day were random, but saying that he would vote for me just because I object to LMP's persona was just as bad as me suggesting I vote for LMP for that reason in the first place.

In retrospect, I'll admit I might have overreacted a little- although some other people's overreactions (not going to name names here...) to my overreaction were just as bad.

Unlike some others, my suspicion regarding Mr. Underhill is not waning by his greater, and wiser, notices of today, rather, they are increased by them. He is definitely clever enough to be playing a double game, and that's the sort of thing a Werewolf would do.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I know I've contributed little today except to rag on you all to stop saying "s/he's definately innocenct, s/he's definately guilty", and I'm sorry to say that it's not going to get any better right now.

I've got a load of wenching to do (aka: several hours of psych homework, 100 pages of reading for core, a one hour radio show to go to, a paper to write, my wife to murder, and Guilder to frame for it), so I'm going to vote now and be done for toDay.

++LMP

Because I'm suspicious of all that voted for Cailìn, I was already suspicious of him, and as he voted for Cailìn, surely you'll agree that my logic should fit together well.

Wish me luck on my Psych paper... I need it... more than you can imagine.

My parting words for the night: there's no such thing as being too careful. Don't drop suspicion for any reason besides "s/he's dead and we know for sure because of it." Also, keep an eye on Esty. She's my random accusation for the evening. I like to see bloodlust! And she's just not showing much.

[mormegil]

Unfortunately I haven't had much time today so I haven't been able to read since I last posted. Anyway I will vote today perhaps a bit random, perhaps not as random. Anyway to clear the air about her and I'm not 100% convinced of her yet

++Feanor

[Firefoot]

Originally posted by Esty:
Firefoot defends Shelob, who is one of my top suspects.

I'm not defending Shelob. She's one of my top suspects.

I'm going to try and make some cases against my top suspects, both to clear my own thoughts and to see if that gets anywhere...

Formendacil: He starts out proposing two main theories: either a bandwagon because that would be a true village majority, or an everybody abstain from voting. Both of these strategies would benefit the wolves because there wouldn't be a good voting record to go off of and the wolves could easily hide. When it gets time to vote, he picks out three people he considers suspicious, Morm and Ang for fairly logical reasons, and LMP because of his occupation. But when he votes he doesn't seem to be considering any of these players, voting instead for Mr. U., who he has never mentioned and doesn't even seem to be garnering much village suspicion. Perhaps he cast suspicion on innocents, then voted for a fellow wolf in an underhanded, sly sort of way that doesn't really put attention on his fellow wolf? He is also "deeply insulted" by the vote for him. Wolves do tend to overreact a little more than ordinary villagers. His analysis post on Day 2 does seem fairly logical - that's good right? Villagers are supposed to be reasonable and logical. He could be hiding, though; he didn't bring much new to the table. I'm not extremely convinced of the Formen/Mr. U. alliance, though - Formen seems to be persuing him pretty vehemently today.

Shelob: She spends a good bit of energy being annoyed with the two votes against her because she hadn't said anything. Too defensive? She spends a lot of space discussing wolvish strategy, then follows it up by saying the wolves very likely won't lynch her. Because she is a wolf? Talking about wolvish strategy - and then not following it? Then she pulls a Fea and suggests we lynch her today. She moves me up on her suspicion list, and I'm still not sure I understand her logic after reading it several times - I think because she doesn't want the wolves to be able to double-bluff their way through the game. Yet didn't she just suggest we lynch her? Then she reiterates her point that the wolves won't kill her that night. I don't think much can be drawn from her vote of Lhuna, as she was rushed. But still...

Lhuna: She is very vague in her first post, briefly mentioning suspicions of several people but nothing very solid. She is forced to break the three-way tie; she says she sees no reason to vote for Cailin, and that Boromir is almost too suspcious to be a wolf. So she votes for Ang, claiming no responsibility over the outcome. Day 2, she votes for Mr. U., for "reasons stated above" - but she's never mentioned Mr. U. before at all. Hm...

I'd like to do a couple more, but these take time, y'know... And, in case I didn't make this clear, I'm not convinced about any of these people, Lhuna least of all. I'm just building cases for how they might be werewolves and why I might vote the way I do. My next subjects were going to be Esty, TGWBS, and Encai - and I'm nearly convinced of the innocence of the first and last.

And I believe the current voting standings are

Mr. Underhill – 1 (Lhuna 1)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 2 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

[Encaitare]

I liked TGWBS's idea of reassessing my opinions from yesterDay, so here goes. Prepare for me to question nearly everyone in one way or another.

Shelob - Silent for most of the day, but as we share a similar predicament, I understand her plight. No suspicion at present.

Her vote seems somewhat groundless. Not saying that Lhuna is innocent, but Shelob does not back up her choice. Also, she's way too quiet. I know I've been quiet with my 2 posts a Day, but I don't see much substance to her posts. I think that if she were a gifted, she would work a little harder. She may get my vote toDay.

the guy who be short - His immediate assertion that he is not a wolf seems a bit iffy to me -- but then again, would a wolf make that kind of slip? It could have been an honest statement, or a wolf's careless mistake. I would credit TGWBS as being too clever to make slips like that, but then again, nobody's perfect.

Nothing he has said toDay makes me feel overly suspicious, so I'm going to leave him alone for now.

Boromir88 - seems very irreverent about the whole thing. Plus, he's rather rude, but that's in character. The whole attitude could be a bold bluff.

He cannot claim to be a "known innocent," although Firefoot addressed that point already.

Lhunardawen - Nothing to go on, really.

Like I said before, I don't like her extremely early vote. I know we all live in different time zones, and Fea and I have gotten some attention for consistently voting late in the Day, since that is also due to where we live. But as I also said before, Lhuna managed to vote later yesterDay. Hrmm...

Feanor of the Peredhil - I'd like to know why she wants me lynched. Could just be that she, out of her silly sense of humor, would find it amusing. She claims to have found "either two known innocent, or two known wolves". For such an outright statement, I doubt she's the Seer. But I have to wonder what she thinks she knows. Perhaps these two are LMP and B88, whom she later said she suspects.

She offers good, sound advice... although the wolves could take advantage of her assertion that wolves will be bold, especially in a game such as this. The wolves might then keep a very low profile and throw everyone off... maybe that's what Fea hopes will happen? Despite how she says we should suspect her, I really don't at the moment, though.

Formendacil - was "deeply insulted" by an accusation. Could just be the traditional first-day response to an accusation, could be a little more defensive. Yet he voted for Mr. Underhill, and although I don't think I'll do the same, I agree with his reasoning.

I feel like I don't have much to go on from him today. He sticks with his initial opinion, which could mean several things.

Estelyn Telcontar - I'm used to seeing Esty taking charge and getting things done. As a new player, I can understand how she's on the quiet side... but even so, I'd like to hear more from her.

She's still maintaining a low profile, although she has now decided more firmly whom to target: those who voted for Anguirel. Even though I am on that list, I'm glad to see that she's not still in newbie mode.

Mister Underhill - Formendacil mentioned before that he is very intelligent and seems to be "playing dumb". Could be lupine behavior.

Like with Esty, it's good to see that he's being more active. I am still a little suspicious of him, though. I shall have to see what the outcome of toDay's lynching is before I can form a stronger opinion on him.

Mormegil, Firefoot, and LMP have been addressed in my previous post (168), and I am sticking to those opinions of them for now.

As I did yesterDay, I shall return in a bit to cast my vote. Right now I am leaning towards Shelob, although if anyone else has some really good arguments I'd be glad to hear them.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

I'm looking back over these supposed magic #41-51 posts, trying to see what other such as lmp "saw" in Cailin's posts that gave him away, and I'm seeing nothing. Can someone help me out here? How did you guys zero in on Cailin? Or is at least one of you running a double-bluff and "knew" it was Cailin because, well, you really knew it was Cailin?

I tried to reply to this post earlier but my dial-up went "blip". I'll try again.

Originally Posted by Cailin

And Esty, whether it is an asset we have fought wolves before, remains still to be seen. Our wolves also likely have past experience and can consequently more or less anticipate the reactions of the village. Besides, we still never managed to actually establish a wolvish behavior pattern.

The second sentence got me thinking about how the werewolves can PM each other all Day as well as Night. In fact, it had the feel of being spoken from experience. The third sentence seemed mighty suspicious, and the wink just sat wrong with me. In the second sentence the possessive is used in reference to wolves, as if she identified with them. It seemed like an overconfident slip, which was why I wasn't sure that I wasn't reading too much into it; when Morm voted for her, that strengthened my choice.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

These are dark days, dark days indeed - and as long as there are these wolves around, there will no doubt be suspicion and doubt. Yet we must work together. Our enemies delight in the division of their enemies.

This one could be said from either a werewolf or innocent perspective, so I was watching Firefoot closely. Her vote for Cailin alleviated some of my suspicion directed toward her.

It's late, and I've been busy, so I have to see how the votes are going and can only scan the discussion from here on, for I'm up at 5 tomorrow. More's the pity.

[Formendacil]

I'm still a bit torn between Fea and Mister Underhill as the most likely suspects. I won't have time to vote later (gong farmer duties, y'know), so I have to make my decision now.

I'll stick it out, and go with ++ Mister Underhill.

Eru granting, this will go better than my "sticking it out" in my last village...

[Firefoot]

++Shelob

I'm torn between her and Formen, but when it comes right down to it I guess she seems more suspicious. Other than that, I've already stated my arguments against her.

Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 3 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

[Mister Underhill]

Yesterday turned out to be the ultimately bad day for me to start up a game of werewolf. I got switched to a new project, which meant breaking down my computer and moving it to another desk, getting situated -- suffice to say, that's why I was less involved yesterday, and why I'm able to be more in the game today.

Good answer, lmp. It does seem as though C's hand was overplayed by that post a little, now that you point it out.

I can see why some are leaning towards Shelob a little now too. If she's a wolf, it's kind of a lame game to play silently. I hate to vote someone out based on the fact that I don't know anything about them.

Unfortunately, I'm still a little pressed today, and this is probably my last chance to get online before the deadline.

Form's been hounding me, but even though I know I'm innocent, I think he's just misguided and not a wolf.

Based on my own suspicions, and the logic of other players who my instincts tell me are innocent, I gotta go:

+ + Feanor

...even though a vote for Shelob could go a long way towards saving my own butt. Hopefully this will show I'm in earnest and not a wolf, even if I've chosen unwisely.

[littlemanpoet]

I find Firefoot's reasoning rather persuasive, such that those she suspects have now been raised from NOT really concerned about yet, to "Questioning".

I Questioning: Mr. U. (dropped from suspect for now), Esty, Formy, & Shelob.

I Suspect: Enca & Lhuna, because of their votes for Anguirel. Yes, Enca says she's convinced of my innocence, which is something a werewolf might say; nevertheless, I'm not ready to vote for her. I'm also not yet ready to vote for Lhuna, whose vote for Anguirel could be read either way.

I Accuse: Feanor. Whereas she says the same things I say about not trusting anyone, she keeps on pointing her radar at me. If she's a werewolf, she knows I'm innocent, and I don't put it past her to continue to accuse someone most others seem to have accepted on the strength of my vote for Cailin, which would seem foolish for a werewolf to do, but Feanor is so capable of the double and triple bluff, that she's going to have to supply more proof (like being lynched and turning out to be innocent, for example) before I'm convinced she's not a wolf. There's just too much doubt and centripital force surrounding this individual to leave her in the game to cause further confusion.

++ Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill, and glad to see we voted alike.

[Encaitare]

I am sticking with my vote for

++ SHELOB

[mormegil]

Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

All votes are in and I'm not sad about Shelob dying. I'm convinced that she's not gifted and may be a wolf. I think it more likely that she's an innocent but that's all. There could be a chance that she is a wolf and that would be great but she asked us to kill her anyway so that's okay. I, of course, would like to get rid of the Fea enigma one way or another but that will have to wait.

About thinking some people are innocent I think TGWBS is correct, it's helpful to have some positive idea of who is likely innocent. It narrows the field substantially and while I don't think we should say 100% that somebody is innocent we can have a strong belief that they are.

And I must say that I am very pleased to see how spread out the votes still are. Encai had to break a tie tonight which could be telling based on the outcome.

[the phantom]

Day-ending post coming soon...

[the phantom]

"Well, now that we know that Cailin was a wolf, it's obvious that morm, Firefoot, and lmp aren't wolves," stated one villager.

"We don't know that!" objected another villager. "One of them could very well be a wolf trying to look innocent."

"As a matter of fact, two of them could be wolves," pointed out a third villager.

"Or maybe even all three of them!" added a rather stupid villager.

"Why are you all assuming Cailin is a wolf, anyway?" asked a clueless villager.

"Because the phantom said so," answered a very wise villager who knew that particular answer took care of about every question in the world.

"Okay, so who are we going to kill today?" questioned a villager who liked to get things done and over with.

"We still need to decide," answered several unsure villagers.

"Shelob!" answered several villagers who didn't want to see the phantom's narrative drag on any longer.

The villagers decided to use Anguirel's sword for the execution. Shelob, the beggar, was tied face down to a table to await her death. Because everyone knew there was a chance they were wrong and Shelob was innocent, no one particularly wanted to step forward and be the executioner. So the villagers gathered in a circle around another table and spun a bottle to determine who would get to lop off Shelob's head.

littlemanpoet gave the bottle a good twirl. After several seconds it came to a stop.

"Well- it's pointing to you, Enca," said Fea.

"Me! No way- it is so pointing to you, Fea!"

"What are you talking about? The end is pointed right at you!" returned Fea while giving Enca's skirt a sly tug that made her lean closer in front of the bottle.

"I think it was pointing to Fea," whispered Esty to mormegil.

"Me too," added Lhuna.

"Hey Fea- Esty and Lhuna think it was pointing to you!" exclaimed mormegil.

"Shut up, morm!" snapped Fea.

"Hey, don't kill the messenger!" countered mormegil.

"That's probably what he'll say if we try to lynch him," muttered the guy who be short.

"This is the most annoying village I've ever been in!" shouted the ever insulting Boromir88.

Suddenly there was a loud THUNK!!

The villagers turned towards Shelob in time to see her head roll off the table and onto the floor (then out of the door, through the garden, and under a bush, and was then nothing but moosh).

littlemanpoet released his hand from the sword that was embedded in the table and walked off towards his quarters. "Sorry guys, but you were taking way too long. I have to get up early tomorrow to brew some more ale. G'night."

After lmp was gone, Firefoot spoke up and asked, "Well, how do we tell if she was a wolf? Do wolves change after their heads are off?"

"Probably not," answered Mister Underhill, "but it's quite obvious she isn't, or wasn't, a wolf."

"Why is that?" everyone asked.

"Because we wouldn't have been able to keep a wolf tied to a table for ten minutes while we decided who would kill it."

Living-

• mormegil (messenger)
• the guy who be short (dwarf)
• Encaitare (jewel smith)
• Boromir88 (insulting man from Dor-Lomin)
• Firefoot (naturalist/herbalist)
• Lhunardawen (healer)
• littlemanpoet (lecherous innkeeper/bartender)
• Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
• Formendacil (gong farmer)
• Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
• Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)

Dead-

• the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
• Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
• Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling wolves on Night 2)
• Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
• Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)

Score: Villagers- 9, Werewolves- 2

It is now night. Only the great and mighty Phantom may post.

Wolves, Seer, Ranger- I need your picks by 12:30 AM EST.

[the phantom]

After spending the day at the orc-camp, Captain Mortakh had made his way back to Bald Hill to receive an update from Sauron and carry out any orders he might have.

"How did things go during the day, Lord Sauron?"

"Oh, I think things have settled down again. There was quite a bit of action the night before- we lost a wolf you know, but I'm not too concerned. The village only had one Eomer. I doubt anyone else will give us that much trouble. Yesterday, even provided with a wolf, the villagers were unable to make heads or tails out of anything. As a matter of fact, there didn't seem to be as much analysis and theorizing yesterday as there was on the first day. After living through so many wolf attacks, I think despair is finally catching up with them. I'm hoping they will stay just as quiet tomorrow. Their silence will be the death of them. Mwu ha ha ha!!"

Mortakh laughed with him. Mortakh had served under Sauron for many years, and he liked going on Werewolf missions with him more than anything. There were times at Angband and in the castle on the River Sirion that Sauron was cruel even to his own minions, but when he was "Werewolfing", he was almost friendly- though still evil to the core.

"How goes the kill tonight, master?"

"The wolves are preparing to make their kill as we speak. Just wait...."