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#161 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Ahem.
If anything else is said about the meta game I'm modfiring everyone who brings it up. Seriously. META GAME HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WEREWOLF.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#162 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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Blast it.
Morsul's defensiveness seemed as if it could be genuine frustration. I don't think I can go for him just now. Hakon either, though I can understand Sally's vote for him, I think. Lari's looks a little worse to me, but I don't want to vote for her. She says she doesn't feel well, so I'll let it go. Hope you feel better. I don't think I want on the Morsul or SPM trains just now. Pitch's vote for Boro was sudden, and his reasoning for it was what didn't appear to me to be a very serious suspicion against Sally. So it's ++ Pitch
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Music alone proves the existence of God. Last edited by Inziladun; 11-03-2009 at 10:51 PM. Reason: x/d with Brinn and an angry mod |
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#163 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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META........Morphise into a butterfly
![]() Please don't modfire me... I'd like to point out while a lot of people are Mentioning it only one person seems to be Using it...at least Obviously and overthetop
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#164 | |
Laconic Loreman
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But it is suspicious that he didn't follow up a vote for Greenie after pretty much calling her the bear. Maybe he didn't think there would be much support, but how many people did he think would vote McCaber?
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Fenris Penguin
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#165 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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++Loslote
I still find her vote for Morsul very opportunistic.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#166 |
Laconic Loreman
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Hell if I know what to do...Morsul's 158 has me doubting about voting him.
Hakon shouldn't be lynched solely because he made some people mad. I'm tempting a vote for Lari because of it, but that would be a waste today. Check her more out tomorrow. ++Morsul Edit: crossed with Brinn's vote.
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Fenris Penguin
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#167 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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I think I'll just seal this...
++Morsul
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peace
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#168 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Okay, so I've calmed down slightly. Modfiring will only occur if people continue to use it as reasons why someone might be a certain role. As has been stated multiple times before, roles were randomly chosen (go ahead and ask my roommate if you don't believe me) and as such there is no rhyme or reason for who has what role.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#169 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Deadline! Day 1 is over. Night shall now commence. People who need to, send in your picks.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#170 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Oh yeah, Morsul is the Hunter.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#171 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Mira needs 5 more minutes to finish the narration. We apologize.
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Puddle! Puddle! |
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#172 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Hakon, being fearful of this group of people and what might happen to him decided to spend his night in an inaccessible room on the fourth floor. He then proceeded to lock himself in so that he could have a nice and peaceful sleep. He spent the time dreaming innocent dreams and then woke up suddenly while he was being strangled. While suffocating and dying he spent the time trying to figure out how this killer could possibly have gotten into his room.
---------- The bear licked his chops before turning to leave the room. Getting in would have been quite the struggle for a normal person, considering all the locks on the door, but a quick swipe of a clawed paw had taken care of that. He was heading back to his own room to catch a few more zzz's before morning came but was ambushed in the hallway by four figures. "Oh...hi guys," the bear said nervously backing into a corner. Upon examining the motion, that probably hadn't been the best of life choices. "Oh, it's you," the leader of the pack said, mildly surprised. "Guess we'll be taking care of the village on our own then." "Thanks for killing the Seer for us," one of his packmates snickered. "We really appreciate it." "Yeah, anytime," the bear grinned meekly, casting a wary glance at the very sharp claws the wolves had chosen to display. "You die now!" One of the wolves was apparently quite happy with the prospect. "Oh crap." With that, a flash of wolfish teeth and claws flew into the air and attacked the bear. --------------- Morning dawns and everyone awakes. They start a fire to make breakfast and the smoke pours into the kitchen instead of out of the chimney. Fea complained “Who did not open the flue?” McCaber responded “It was definitely open.” “What could be the problem then?” chimed in Greenie. Zil gave a deep sigh and said “I’ll go look.” He climbed up the stairs to the next fireplace where the chimney comes through… “The blockage isn’t here” he yelled down. This process was repeated until he found the shredded remains of Hakon's door. "I think I might have found the problem!" Upon entering the room, the group found obvious signs of a struggle. Pillow feathers were strewn across the room haphazardly, and the blankets on the bed were rumpled on the floor. But, there was no blood. "Well this is strange..." Lari comments, looking around. Nods of agreement follow her statement. It wasn't long before Sauce spotted a pair of legs sticking out of the fireplace. "I think we just found Hakon." They pulled him out and discovered the obvious signs of strangulation. "Guess people really are going to die..." wilwa commented. Silence fell again. "Is anybody else missing?" Roa asked, looking around. "Wait, where's Boro?" After confirming that no one had seen the man in question yet that day, they headed down the corridor towards his room. Before they turned the corner, however, a gruesome sight met their eyes. There was Boro, lying in a pool of his own blood. The source of the spill was quite obvious. His neck had been severed almost completely through. "It's like Harry Potter..." Lari whispered. Everyone opted to ignore her. Upon closer examination, they found patches of fur and a bear's ear still on Boro's body. "He was the bear? Who knew?" Nog said. "Well, I guess the wolves did us a favor then..." That knowledge was little comfort to the mourning group.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#173 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: CT/NY
Posts: 681
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Okay official apology from moddess time... I massively slacked on the narration writing (hence why Morsul's still isn't done) and massively underestimated the amount of time it was going to take to do Boro's. I apologize, my good people, and hope dearly that you can forgive your loyal moddess.
The Dead: Mira - moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1 Nienna - co-moddess, death by Red Masque Night 1 Morsul - Hunter, lynched Day 1 Hakon - Seer, suffocated and stuck up chimney Night 2 Boro - werebear, throat slit Night 2 The Living: Brinn Fea Greenie Inzil Lari Loslote McCaber Nerwen Nog Pitchwife Roa sally Saucepan Man wilwa IT IS NOW DAY 2.
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Rise and rise again until lambs become lions. |
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#174 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Yay Spark notes!
Yay dead bear! Boo dead seer. ![]() That is all. I'm going to bed. I'll do my best to look at Hakon's posts in the morning, kthnx.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#175 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
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So we traded a seer for the Wererangutan. That's not really a deal I'd prefer making, as we still have four(!) wolves to deal with. At least there's only one kill a night now.
I'll take a look at Hakon's posts again, and see if I can find any dream hints in there. EDIT: crossed with sally who said much the same as myself.
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Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
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#176 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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So the last night kills are half yay and half boo! Yay werebear dead! Boo seer dead.
As for Hakon posts...the only thing I see is where he mentioned who would be "made evil" by the Moddess and he lists Boro as one of them. Fea and Sally are the others. That's all that stood out to me. I'm now going to bed.
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Choose treachery, its more fun!
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#177 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Hakon
In his first post, he says not to discuss the bear, and "tells the seer" to dream of the bear. In his second post, he lists the possible bear candidates from his point of view, including Bearomir. In his third post, he clarifies the timeline given by Morsul. Lastly, he votes Morsul. From this, I believe (though I am in no way certain) that Hakon dreamed Bearomir, then tried to leave the necessary hints without giving himself away. That's my interpretation, anyways. I can't be sure, because very little of Hakon's actions make sense to me. But we know who killed Hakon, because he's dead too. I think we ought to give more weight to examining Bearomir's death and the Morsul bandwagon's 3 surviving members. Which I'll get to in the morning after class. Goodnight all. And to make sure we have no confusion, the count is now: 4 wolves 1 cobbler 2 lovers 1 ranger 6 innocents
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#178 | |||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Having looked at Hakon's posts, I agree with Roa and Lari that he probably dreamed Bearomir– and if not, he gave no hints of who he did dream. However, since he didn't say much, believe I'll give his posts in full. Quote:
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I think we can dismiss his mention of Fea and Sally, since he speaks of them as possible Bear-candidates, and whatever they are, they're not Bears. (*applause* Thank you, Captain Nerwen Obvious!) Then he explains Morsul's reasoning on the "time-limit". Then he votes Morsul: Quote:
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I wonder if the wolves had guessed who it was they were killing? Reading through yesterDay, I started to think Boro might be the Bear. I say this, not to congratulate myself, but because if I picked him out the wolves might have too, and in that case killing him implies wolves who are cautious and unwilling to gamble.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#179 |
Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Anybody around? I don't have much time this Morning, so just a few thoughts before I'm off to work.
Boro did talk a lot about the Bear yesterDay (hiding in the open), especially about setting the Bear and the Wolves against each other. If the wolves identified him because of that, they may have read his statements as a declaration of war and decided to get rid of him before he became a threat. I concur with Nerwen's analysis of Hakon's posts. With hindsight, Hakon talked quite a bit about the Seer, when he wasn't busy with meta-reasoning, so Boro may have guessed that Hakon had dreamed him. But with both of them dead, this question is now rather academic. À propos Hakon - fulfilling Nog's prophecy, I'm now indeed suspecting those who voted him, i. e. sally and Lari. Not for the vote per se, which is understandable in a way (as I said yesterDay, I was briefly tempted to vote him myself), but both have up to now shown a detached, can't-really-be-bothered attitude which, combined with voting an easy victim, I find more than slightly unnerving. Among the Morsul voters, I'd say SpM had the most reason to vote him, while both Lottie's and Fea's votes seem more opportunistic. Other votes: Greenie for Nog - hardly surprising, as suspecting each other seems a family tradition with them. Nog for McCaber - well, a little bit out of the blue, but consistent with his tendency to go for the subs (why McCaber, though, rather than any other?). Me for Boro - actually rather an impromptu reaction to something that jumped out at me and seemed slightly furry than a thoroughly thought-out case, but a lucky one, as it turns out. Zil for me - not quite undeserved, as my reason for voting Boro was rather weak indeed. Brinn for Lottie - for opportunism in voting Morsul; can't fault her for it. Have to be off to work now, see you all later.
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#180 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Phew! Given Morsul’s vote yesterday and the absence of narrative, I was wondering for a while there whether he might have taken me with him. I guess that he had not nominated a target before he was lynched.
My preliminary thoughts on the overNight kills are much as others have stated. It looks like Hakon may have dreamed of Boro and that Boro picked up on this. I am not sure whether the Wolves spotted Boro as the Bear. He did refer to the Bear quite a lot, but then so did others (including me). If they did spot him, then Nerwen’s point is a good one. It suggests that they are a cautious bunch. However, it is quite possible that they did not spot him and so it is worth considering why else they may have targeted him. More thoughts on this, and on the voting, coming up. In the meantime - Roa, I am not going to spend much time toDay rehashing our, erm, discussions of yesterDay. However, I would make the point that I did not ‘back off’ from you yesterDay, or not at least in the sense that you imply. My suspicions of you were by no means conclusive in my mind and I made clear that I was reserving judgment. Pitch made the reasonable point that our interaction could well be one of those clashes of vocal innocents and, on reflection, I thought that this could well be the case, particularly since, as the Day wore on, your approach, while frustrating, looked less to me the behaviour of a Wolf and more that of a single-minded (and misguided) innocent. Your vote for me reinforces my view in that regard, as there was a reasonable prospect that I might be lynched and, if I was, then that would have reflected badly on you. I will be around intermittently toDay, so I’ll be back in a while with some analysis.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#181 | |||||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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I'm here! First off, a little (green) flood of comments on first yesterDay, then toDay.
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Okay. I can't decide if we're well off now or not. On one hand, the bear is dead which means that there'll only be one kill per Night from now on, which is cool. (Tremble, Nerwen, it looks as if your position as the village Captain Obvious was in danger!) On the other hand, we've lost the Seer, and our wolves must be rather happy right now. They've rid themselves of the Seer, the Bear, and the Hunter during one Day and Night. I'll be around every now and then until my voting time, I have some school stuff to attend to but I'll try to pop up as often as I can. EDIT: bolding
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." Last edited by A Little Green; 11-05-2009 at 05:12 AM. |
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#182 | ||
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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*Note to self – be sure to read rules properly* ![]() For ease of reference, here’s the Day 1 voting record: Greenie -> Nogrod (Nogrod - 1) Morsul -> SpM (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1) Pitchwife -> Boro (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1, Boro - 1) SpM -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 1, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1) Roa -> SpM (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1) Nogrod -> McCaber (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 1, McCaber - 1) Loslote -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 2, McCaber - 1) Hakon -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1) sally -> Hakon (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 1) Lari -> Hakon (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2) Inzil -> Pitchwife (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1) Brinn -> Loslote (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 3, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1) Boro -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 4, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1) Fea -> Morsul (Nogrod - 1, SpM - 2, Boro - 1, Morsul - 5, McCaber - 1, Hakon - 2, Pitchwife - 1, Loslote -1) Did not vote – McCaber, Nerwen, wilwa (Is this right? I can’t see their votes.) Analysis on its way – when I get a chance.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#183 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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K, sorry I didn't do much yesterDay, I'm just going through some stuff right now, but I should be able to come on more toDay, I hope. Can't say much now, just lettting you know I will show up again in a few hours.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#184 | |||||||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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The Saucepan Man
...Who is, appropriately, one noisy player. This took ages! #11. Banter, joke-suspecting everyone who has posted so far. Comments on overall set-up. This is where the "Friendly Wolf" thing first appears. He finishes by saying that it would be best to kill the Bear, but that this won't be easy since they leave few tracks. #15. [Replying to Greenie's question on how hard the Bear will be to catch] Quote:
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#20. Quote:
Repeats that killing the Bear would be good, but difficult to accomplish. Speculates on "the dynamic between the Wolves and the Bear". Concludes that "the Innocents and the Wolves have a mutual interest in finding and killing the Bear". Asks if there is "any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?" #21. [Replying to Inzil.] Quote:
#25. Relying to Morsul, who said that we would still need to kill the "Friendly Wolf". Quote:
Says that my comment about hoping we will not lynch the "Friendly Wolf" too soon is "worth bearing in mind". These last two are, again, rather odd comments. I wondered at the time if he could be the "Friendly Wolf"... so again it raises the possibility that he was deliberately posing as a non-existent role. That would, though highly suspicious, also be extremely foolhardy for a wolf at that stage. At this stage I'd guess his role to be either the cobbler, or else an innocent who perhaps thought I was the FW. #35.Accepts Inzil's demolition of the "Friendly Wolf" theory; says he misinterpreted the narration. Points out that Mira has made a mistake and given the wrong number of ordos. Comments that at least we now have an even greater chance of lynching a baddie. #43. Is glad the mistake is cleared up; thinks we should perhaps have kept the "Friendly Wolf" idea going longer, to confuse the Wolves; doesn't like the way Roa suspects him for his mistake. #47. Is astonished that anyone could think the "Friendly Wolf" idea was a ruse by a baddie, since that interpretation of the narrative would not occur to someone (i.e. a wolf) who knew its true meaning, and since the "ruse" would depend on most of the village also being taken in. Thinks Roa's apparent mistake about the number of wolves may have been an actual trick. Roa's quickness to jump on people makes him uneasy. –Which is all quite reasonable. #49. Agrees with Roa that we need to vote for someone, but is reserving judgement for now. #99. Suspects Roa for aggression, but admits that she is always like that. Is still reserving judgement. Reiterates (replying to Nogrod, who find him suspicious) that the "Friendly Wolf" ruse would be a bad one. Defends Greenie against Nogrod's charge that her preoccupation with the Bear is itself bearish– points out that Bears are "a rare feature of WW games" so it's not surprising people are concerned about them. Says Nogrod seems "uncharacteristically aggressive", but is perhaps "too in your face" to be a wolf. A cobbler's unwillingness to go after anyone too strongly, in case that person is a wolf? Perhaps. Then he says this: Quote:
#104. Further defends himself against Roa. #105. Replying to Morsul, who voted him. Quote:
#110. Defends himself against Roa, accusing her of misrepresenting his case against her. Denies he is over-defensive about the "Friendly Wolf" affair, since it has in fact brought him under suspicion. #114. Says he needs to vote soon. Comments that Hakon is "wrong-headed" and "unhelpful" but should not be voted for that. Is somewhat uneasy about Pitch– "He just seems to be sitting on the sidelines appearing reasonable but stirring the pot every now and then", and about Nogrod due to his aggression. Says he is most worried about Morsul, because of the dodgy reasoning behind his vote. #118.[Replying to Roa, who claims everyone is assuming the Bear will help the village] Quote:
#120. Very sharp response to Nogrod's comment that he has been praising Boro for stating the obvious: Quote:
#123.And does. Not, I think, a particularly suspicious vote. Comments. Probably not a wolf, as I think the FW business looked like a genuine mistake. May be the cobbler. Some of his posts look like attempts to signal to other players, and his defence of Boro could be that of a cobbler who had mistaken Bearishness for wolfishness. Or not. An innocent might try to sound out other players too. Overall, I'd say the evidence is inconclusive. If evil, he is more likely cobbler than wolf. EDIT:X'd with a host; added comment on vote.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 11-05-2009 at 06:33 AM. |
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#185 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Loslote
#126. Checks in. #129. Says Morsul looks most suspicious. "His logic has left me confused while I try to figure out what he could possibly mean, and then trying to figure out where he got it." At this point Morsul already had a vote, so this looks a little opportunistic. Dislikes Hakon's meta-game reasoning. Doesn't think SPM is a were of any kind, as he seems "genuine". Has no read on Roa and will look at her. (Didn't.) #132. Asks what Morsul meant by "time limit". #142. Votes Morsul, "because he's the most suspicious one so far." #143. [Replying to Morsul's defence of his vote for SPM] Quote:
#153.[Replying to Morsul, who complained that she wanted him to put his "entire life on hold" in order to do analyses] Quote:
She really goes out of her way to defend SPM. This may be simply due to exasperation with Morsul. However, it may also point to a connection.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#186 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Thoughts on the votes:
Four Wolves. If I was them, I would try to spread the votes, particularly given that it looked from a reasonably early stage in the voting (roughly the time of Hakon’s vote) like Morsul would most likely be lynched. Morsul voters – If I am right about spreading the votes, I would guess that there is no more than one Wolf here, if that. Two Morsul voters are dead, leaving me, Loslote and Fea. Fea’s vote was unreasoned, although Morsul was one of the few that she expressed suspicion of earlier in the Day. Also, I am doubtful whether a Wolf would want to be ‘sealing the deal’, as it were, on the lynching of an innocent Morsul. To my mind, therefore, if there was a Wolf in the Morsul bandwagon, it more likely to have been Loslote. As I think has already be noted, her vote does look to have been rather opportunistic. That said, it is quite possible that the Wolves avoided this bandwagon altogether. Hakon voters – Lari and sally – It’s unlikely that they are both Wolves, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one of them is. Hakon did rather give people an excuse to vote for him with all his Meta-reasoning stuff, and I wouldn’t put it past a Wolf to take advantage of this. A Wolf wouldn’t necessarily want to get caught in the lynching of the Seer, but it seems unlikely that the Wolves spotted him, or he would have had the pleasure of two visits last Night. Greenie for Nogrod – Given his accusation of her, based on what I thought to be rather weak evidence, I can see why she might vote for him. That said, she does not appear to have looked very closely at many others and she may have used this thing about her frequently voting for him as cover to place an ‘easy’ vote. Pitchwife for Boro – Given what we know now, it looks good. However, as I pointed out yesterDay, it was based on very little evidence indeed and rather came out of nowhere. Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates. Not at all sure about this one. Roa for me – Not a surprise, given our interaction yesterDay. And, as mentioned previously, this doesn’t look much like a Wolfish vote to me. Nogrod for McCaber – Now, I know that Nogrod dislikes the quiet types. But this does rather give him an excuse to place what looks to me to be an incredibly safe vote. There was little prospect of McCaber being lynched so he was the ideal candidate for a Wolf who had to vote relatively early and didn’t want to be caught in a bandwagon. And the reasoning was poor – ‘buddying up’, based only on McCaber’s comment that Nogrod was making sense. You really need to take those anti-exagerration pills, Noggie. ![]() Inzil for Pitchwife – Again, a rather safe vote, given that there was little prospect of Pitch being lynched at the time that it was placed. But the reasoning was sound (for a Day 1 vote). Pitch’s vote for Boro did look strange at the time. Brinn for Loslote- I can’t fault the reasoning. Loslote’s vote did look opportunistic. But, once again, relatively safe and could even be a Wolf-on-Wolf. The prospect of Loslote being lynched was minimal and so it would have been a good opportunity for a Wolfish Brinn to vote for a Wolfish Loslote. Non-voters – Wilwa and McCaber explained, I think, that they might not have the opportunity to vote. I am not sure that Nerwen has explained her non-vote. I don’t like non-voters, because I find people’s votes to be some of the most useful items of evidence that we have. That said, it would be quite dangerous for a Wolf deliberately not to vote on Day 1, given that a second consecutive non-vote will, I think, trigger elimination by modfire. In summary, to my mind the most Wolfish votes are those of Loslote, Nogrod and one of the Hakon votes. Possible Wolfish votes – Fea, Inzil and Brinn. Not sure about Greenie, Pitch and the non-voters, and Roa’s vote looks to me the least Wolfish. Note – this is based purely on votes.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#187 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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We keep shooting Hakon down, but in the last three games he has now hunted a wolf, protected the seer, and dreamt a werebear. He must be doing something right. I don't think we can really put it against him if he dreamt Boro for meta-reasons. The roles here may be completely random, but on Night 1 there is absolutely nothing within the game to go off of since no one's posted yet. So the only thing a seer can do is guess or choose based off experiences from past games. His ultimate mistake was bringing that meta-reasoning into Day One, which he shouldn't have...but hopefully he's learned his lesson. I was rather surprised to discover Hakon was the seer, though seeing his posts it does add up. The reasons why he was killed seem fairly obvious now knowing who the werebear was. Hakon would've been fairly lynchable toDay, but that would've meant him revealing which would expose Boro if he had indeed dreamt of him.
From yesterDay's voting, I still suspect Loslote for being opportunistic and am still wary of Nogrod since his vote seemed to come out of thin air. I'm also not happy with Lari and Sally's votes because while Hakon was annoying everyone, I don't think it's a valid reason to vote him. Because irritating and not following the rules does not necessarily equal wolf. And anyway, if he continued to pull this crap if he were still alive, he would've been modfired. Of course, there's much more to look at than just the voting but I'm at work now and don't really have time to thoroughly look at everyone, so it'll have to wait for later. Don't expect a whole lot from me toDay since it's another long day and I'm still lacking sleep, but I'll do my best. ToMorrow will be much better since it'll be the weekend (yay).
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#188 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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I'm here and reading. I'll probably be off and on since I have a mammoth of a paper to write, and I think I'm getting sick, but I'll do my best to be around as much as possible. I probably won't have time for analysis until later though.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#189 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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Some very brief thoughts:
If a Seer wants to use meta-reasoning to aid in choosing whom to dream of, that's fine. Otherwise, it's not an advisable tactic, especially when one tries to base votes solely on it. I don't like Loslote's vote on Morsul. Highly band-waggonish. Same with Fea, though as I think SPM said, it would have been pretty brash of a Feawolf to brag about 'sealing the deal'. The Hakon voters ought to be heavily scrutinised as well. I think it highly likely there's at least one wolf there. Lari still looks a little worse to me than Sally. Nog's vote for McCaber still looks odd. Yes, I know he doesn't like submarines, but I think there were better targets than McCaber. I look forward to hearing from Nog toDay. Pitch's vote could well have been just for safety's sake. Other than his vote, I haven't seen much suspicious about him, but he's worth keeping in mind. More as time allows.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#190 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Responding as I go, so I may be repeating some others.
#179- Pitchwife: We can't know for sure that the wolves spotted Boro for the bear. We shouldn't fall into the trap of ruling out other causes of death. #180- SPM: Having read through yesterDay with a cooler head, I am beginning to see Pitch's point. The ironic part is that I was trying to avoid getting stuck on that with Nogrod and ended up falling into it with you instead. I still think you were harsh to jump on me for an early, admittedly weak suspicion, given that's what everyone was doing at the time, though. You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else. #182- SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1? ![]() #184- Nerwen: SPM as the cobbler? It's possible, but as we saw last game, pretending to be the cobbler works for a wolf, and SPM saw that too. Still we aren't at a point yet where the cobbler is a huge concern, so cobbler spotting isn't going to help right now. #186- SPM: I see your point about the possible wolf in the Hakon voters. I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul. Morsul's vote almost changed my mind, and we know how amazing that is. It's not terribly surprising that someone who just arrived to find his vote highly suspicious. I would think that the people who voted after Morsul's defense, which to my mind was very reasonable, look more suspicious. And we know one baddie was involved there. Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me. Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense. Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186. ![]() Also, my slightly fevered brain tells me I should take a nap before I tackle the ethics surrounding the Hiroshima bombings. I'll be back later.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen Last edited by Roa_Aoife; 11-05-2009 at 10:34 AM. |
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#191 | |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,035
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Did I? Sorry. I haven't yet read everything toDay.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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#192 |
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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I have had a look through Boro’s posts – there were more than I thought!
As has been noted, he talked a lot about Bear tactics and Bear v Wolf dynamics. Probably more so than anyone else, so perhaps he was attacked because the Wolves had spotted him. If so, he only has himself to blame, as that was his advice to them. ![]() At various points, he expressed suspicion to varying degrees about a fair few people. This figures, I suppose, as he would want to keep his options open. Other than Morsul, however, his main suspect appears to have been sally (#101 and #131), although he wavered to and fro on Nogrod and Greenie a bit (#131, #135 and #164) and noted right at the end that he was tempted to vote for Lari but would check her out the next Day (#166). I think that, if the Wolves did target Boro because of something that he said about one of them, then this would point towards sally, and perhaps Lari, more than anyone else. Which is interesting, given that they are the two Hakon voters, and I think one of them is quite likely a Wolf. But it’s a fairly tenuous lead, and I didn’t see much else in what he said that might have provoked the Wolves to attack him.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#193 | ||||
Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#194 | ||
Leaf-clad Lady
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Now a quick list before I'm off to write a French essay on preserving water. Eurgh. Brinn - seems innocentish Fea - Roa has a good point about her vote, I have little on her apart from that. The poems were cool, though. Greenie - that's me. Inzil - no read, dunno why since he's been posting quite actively. Might take a look at him toMorrow if we both are alive (I won't have the time toDay). Lari - too little to go on Loslote - can't say, really - I can see how her vote could appear very opportunistic, but I don't have enough data from her to say this or that. McCaber - too little to go on Nerwen - leaning innocent Nog - is still the only one I have actual arguments against. I believe I have talked enough about him already, I'd love it if he appeared before I vote because I had some questions for him. I will not judge this or that before I've had those questions answered. Pitchwife - seems innocent Roa - seems so sensible it frightens me, if you know what I mean. She makes soooo much sense that I'm lulled into thinking "she makes sense, she can't be a wolf", when I know that making or not making sense doesn't necessarily have anything to do with being or not being a wolf. Actually, more than once, while reading, I caught myself thinking "What if Roa is a wolf?" sally - too little to go on Saucepan Man - leaning innocent wilwa - too little to go on Four of the above people are wolves. Nog? Roa? Fea? Sally, McCab, Loslote, Wilwa, Lari? Brinn (knowing my skill in reading her)? Dunno. Heeeeeeeeeeey actually I got an idea. Nog and Roa together? I'm not sure if I remember this right but wasn't Roa suspecting Nog early on Day 1, but dropped the suspicion after a while? Convenient wolf-on-wolf? I'd love to investigate but now I have to write the stupid essay. Back when I'm finished!
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#195 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I think this will be the Nth time I say this, but let me try and formulate it this way (if it would finally hammer in to some thick skulls around...
![]() Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1 On Day1 never vote a player who actually "invests in the game", takes time and effort to actually produce ideas, reads and comments on others, builds or tries to build cases... throwing her/his neck forwards in general. Elucidation of the rule Those people can be read on later Days much better than those who act like submarines - and it is fair to let those people play who actually play and sink the submarines. First amendment to the NwwrD1 If one of the people referred to in the NwwwD1 as "those who invest into the game" turns out so suspicious that there is a clear and open argument beyond any reasonable doubt that the person is a baddie, then neglect NwwrD1 and vote for the person. Second amendment to the NwwrD1 If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game", then try to affect the lynching as to save those you think fit the description or who feel the most innocent. Third amendment to the NwwrD1 If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game" and there is no chance to stay around at the deadline and affect the voting, then pick the most suspicious person from the low-posters / non-involveds and hope for the best. My late dinner is ready and cooling... More thoughts soonish.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#196 | |
Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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Back and just finished reading. One little comment:
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#197 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Okay, I just woke up from my nap and now I'm catching up.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#198 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.) Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)
#195- Nogrod: Yes, we know your rules. ![]() Well that didn't take too long. Where is everybody?
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#199 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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I'd love to check what's between Roa and Nog, but now I'm ravenous and will get something to eat first. And also, I'll vote in an hour, or I hope to, since I need to go to bed (my alarm clock will ring in something like nine hours from now). Back in a minute! Be productive while I'm away so I'll have some lovely new last-minute ideas. Please? EDIT: x-ed with Roa
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#200 | ||
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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