Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Huinesoron]

Thanks for the vote tallies, BG! Looking at how we (in)Glorious Dead voted:

On Day 1, two of us voted for Form, and one for Legate (& one for me). Legate is now the only surviving Form voter from Day 1.

On Day 2, both BG and Nog voted... Form.

Okay, seriously: Form can't possibly be a wolf, right? No pack would allow a Day Three where 4 of the 6 votes cast by the dead were for one of their own. Right?

Looking at the voting times: that Nog-wagon really did come out of nowhere in terms of actual votes. They were all in the final nine minutes! Checking both days, the names that pop out as 'late & secured an innocent kill' are:

• Pitch (throwaway vote Day 1, first to join the Nog-wagon Day 2 after being able to see it already had votes)
• Brinn (throwaway when I was at 4 votes Day 1, final nail in Nog's coffin Day 2).

I feel like Rikae's early vote is actually a point in their favour. Would a wolf set themselves up as the instigator of multiple innocent lynches?

---

Something Mac said struck me as suspicious:

Originally Posted by Mac

Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay

But... why though? I know he doesn't know when we voted, but a) we know nothing, and b) our vote killed an innocent! Combine this with his first comment after the night-kill:

Originally Posted by Mac

I believe you owe the good man an answer, you bloodthirsty lot!

I may be biased by already knowing why Lottie thinks she was killed, but trying to push Day Three's discussion back to the Day One night-kill seems pretty counterproductive, as well as a neat way of pushing attention onto Anyone But Him.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Um.

Looking back over that last post: what if we have a pack who are deliberately looking wolfish?

Because everyone has spent a lot of time saying 'That suspicious behaviour is too obvious for a [wolf/seer]!', and then focussing on the less-obviously-suspicious people. So a defense of 'Form can't be a wolf, why would the wolves kill all his voters?' and 'Rikae can't be a wolf, why would a wolf position themselves at the head of a lynch?' would probably hold up, at least for a day or so.

And... a day or so is all they need. If they can avoid losing a wolf toDay, and get a clean kill toNight, they'll be at 5 evil, 5 good, and all they need is the Cobbler to identify themselves and mass-vote for a single candidate. As we saw last game with Brinn's virtuoso performance as Seer, a 'reveal and we win' message is a very plausible way to pull off a victory.

This would work best if the wolves have a good idea of who the Cobbler is, since whichever pack member makes the request would presumably(?) attract immediate votes from all the innocents, so they'd have to time it well.

Quick maths-check for if they fail:

Day Four: 4w, 1c, 5i
-One wolf posts to say 'Cobbler, vote for X if and only if I have not already received 5 votes'. Wolf receives 5 votes; Cobbler stays hidden. Wolf leaves instructions for Cobbler to vote for the same villager ASAP the next day (assuming one innocent and no wolves die in the night). Wolf lynched

Night 5: 3w, 1c, 5i
-Innocent night-killed.

Day 5: 3w, 1c, 4i
-Cobbler votes immediately after DL for the designated target. Wolves mass vote. Innocent lynched, because they got 4 votes first.

Night 6: 3w, 1c, 3i
-Innocent night-killed. Might even be the Cobbler, as least-likely to be BH protected. Wolf victory.

It's a plan that could definitely be derailed by a Gifted, but if it worked... come to think of it, they don't even need the Cobbler: all they need on Day 4 is for the first vote cast to be innocent-on-innocent, and they can mass-vote and win.

So we really need to kill a wolf toDay, because otherwise it's all up to the Gifted.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Since we have an unbreakable majority here by now (or at least, once we hit 4 evildoers the Seer will almost certainly be outed anyway), I can safely say this: Greenie #357 for Seer?

She lists only three people as not suspicious (Nilp, Rikae, and Shasta), and uses the word 'read' of all three - and not of anyone else. They're all reasonable Seer targets: I assume the Seer would focus on people who might be undercover wolves, rather than looking at the obvious suspects. (I would guess Nilp for N1 dream, as if he's a wolf, you're never going to guess on D1.)

She closes by saying she wants to read (that word again!) through Lommy today, and highlights that she's 'under the radar' - the same criteria I think she used for her other dreams.

If I'm right, then we unfortunately don't have any Seer-confirmed wolves yet, which explains a lot! It also means we might see Greenie here sooner than later - after all, if even I can spot it...

(Could she be fake-Seer hinting? Maybe, but risky: she's 'cleared' a quarter of a village which is 1/3 wolves, the odds of hitting one of them and invalidating her 'reads' are... um... about 50%, I believe.)

hS

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

And... a day or so is all they need. If they can avoid losing a wolf toDay, and get a clean kill toNight, they'll be at 5 evil, 5 good, and all they need is the Cobbler to identify themselves and mass-vote for a single candidate. ...

It's a plan that could definitely be derailed by a Gifted, but if it worked... come to think of it, they don't even need the Cobbler: all they need on Day 4 is for the first vote cast to be innocent-on-innocent, and they can mass-vote and win.

If this is right, it also explains BG's night-kill: not primarily a long-shot Seer, but someone who was unlikely to be protected by either the Ranger or the Beast Hunter. After all, if they can get to Day Four and time it right, it doesn't matter if the Seer has nailed all four of them: they win by getting the first vote. Their greatest danger would come from having one of their kills blocked (or, of course, one of them eating a lynch!).

hS

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

If this is right, it also explains BG's night-kill: not primarily a long-shot Seer, but someone who was unlikely to be protected by either the Ranger or the Beast Hunter. After all, if they can get to Day Four and time it right, it doesn't matter if the Seer has nailed all four of them: they win by getting the first vote. Their greatest danger would come from having one of their kills blocked (or, of course, one of them eating a lynch!).

Hmm... haven't made the maths myself, but I trust yours here.

In that case I'm actually curious no-one in the Living Thread seems to be too bothered about it...

Secondly: we might be witnessing a Seer reveal soonish - and possibly a counter-reveal by the NW. Especially if you have it right and it is indeed Greenie who is the Seer with three non-wolf Dreams. If the villagers vote the right way (so don't get fooled by a rival-reveal), they could then organize protection to her for the next Night and have a fighting chance.

Okay, I clearly need to look at the numbers.

[Nogrod]

Well, I guess you hS forgot something from your calculations: us!

The wolves may try to go for the "even numbers first" -victory - but we can derail them by giving an extra-vote to the good side and making it one vote -lynch. Which naturally means we'd have to succeed in it as well.

But yes. The worst scenario aka. an innocent lynch toDay and a succesful kill by the wolves the next Night will leave the village in the morning of Day4 at 6:4 by roles and 5:5 by siding. So in theory the wolves could win on Day4. It's only that they would really need to succeed in everything and we'd need to goof it royally.

With any other scenario than that things will be a lot more interesting and there are a myriad of variations.

That said I guess the Seer might still be holding her/his horses yet this Day. Then again there's the NW-issue no-one has talked about in a long time - but the wish of the wolves to unleash those capabilities probably hasn't gone anywhere. With only innocents dead thus far they might start to think, at some point, that they could afford one number less...

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, I guess you hS forgot something from your calculations: us!

The wolves may try to go for the "even numbers first" -victory - but we can derail them by giving an extra-vote to the good side and making it one vote -lynch. Which naturally means we'd have to succeed in it as well.

But yes. The worst scenario aka. an innocent lynch toDay and a succesful kill by the wolves the next Night will leave the village in the morning of Day4 at 6:4 by roles and 5:5 by siding. So in theory the wolves could win on Day4. It's only that they would really need to succeed in everything and we'd need to goof it royally.

Oh yeah... us. You're right, I did forget. Still doesn't help if they can piggyback a villager's vote Day 4 - that would get them 6 to a total of 5 (with us) against them.

As for us goofing it... I mean, we have for the last two days! The two protective Gifted will still have ten possible targets each toNight, and if the Seer reveals then at least one of them will have to protect her, making a kill even more likely.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With any other scenario than that things will be a lot more interesting and there are a myriad of variations.

That said I guess the Seer might still be holding her/his horses yet this Day. Then again there's the NW-issue no-one has talked about in a long time - but the wish of the wolves to unleash those capabilities probably hasn't gone anywhere. With only innocents dead thus far they might start to think, at some point, that they could afford one number less...

I feel like the best wolf strategy is to treat the NW as an ordinary wolf. Everyone thinks they'll be acting Cobblerish, so their best bet is... not to.

hS

[Loslote]

I've found Mac to be much more suspicious toDay, and Kath's reaction to Greenie also feels wolfish. I'm not done reading yet, but I wanted to jot that down while it was fresh in my mind.

[Loslote]

And Legate continuing to defend Kath and echoing her in going after Greenie feels like they may be packmates.

[Loslote]

Also, I'm starting to think Form might actually be innocent, but it's really helpful for the wolves if the village spends most of the first three days focusing on the same suspicious innocent. So the people who keep pushing that line of reasoning (Legate and Mac are who I noticed doing this) look very suspicious to me.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Mac, you might be even more annoyed to hear that you're basically the victim of a poorly-told joke.

I thought to myself, if these furballs infesting this once-peaceful village want to go after obvious Seer candidates, I'll give them one.

So I looked for the most oblique, but still somewhat defensible angle of attack against someone otherwise unsuspected. Let them think I dreamt of this villager and am trying desperately to make a case. You happened to be the one on the receiving end of it. I regret nothing, btw, except the fact that I set traps around my house last NIGHT, but no one showed up.

Why? Was I too obvious? Too oblique? Or, the most apparent, barking up the wrong tree? This seems the most likely explanation. So Mac, I basically take back what I said yesterDAY.

Now, I have a problem. Since I used up my supplies setting up those traps, my house is kinda unprotected toNIGHT. If I live to see tomorrow, then I'll have a more proper greeting for for any fanged home invaders, but I'm not sure if I'd last that long.

Now it's getting interesting......

[Loslote]

So Nilp is all but outright asking for a Ranger protection here, and also suggesting that if Mac was evil, the wolves would have attacked him last Night. I feel like this could easily be a wolf play, but I don't know that I would expect it from Nilp in particular. Really confusing stuff!

[Loslote]

Also, I don't buy that this clears Mac. I didn't catch the bait yesterDay, I don't think it's out of the question that the wolves might have missed it or decided to look elsewhere. Nilp didn't post enough otherwise for this to ping on radars, I think. I'm tentatively believing his claim, but I don't think it was as effective as he'd hoped.

[Loslote]

Also, if the wolves HAD killed Nilp, it would have been painfully obvious that Mac was a wolf.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nilp - there are so many things that could catch a wolf pack's attention. Like BG's seer comments. Or basically any arbitrary suspicion OR trust towards someone. Just because you weren't Night killed for weirdly suspecting Mac doesn't mean Mac is innocent - if he's a wolf, he has three fellow wolves who might have received even weirder suspicions.

Yes, thank you, Lommy!

[Blind Guardian]

Is it just weird to me that no one is taking Nilp as a Beast Hunter seriously?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Shasta - I keep flipflopping about him but I think BG's death is a big point in favour of his innocence.

I reread through the Day 1 and 2 posts and came up with some reason that Shasta was a ranger but even I don't remember what that was. No one should trust anything I say at this point. I was wrong about Nog, I am probably wrong about Formy..

And I don't even know what to think about Nilp except bad timing. No one was suspecting him of being the BH and now he's outing himself? I don't know man...

And I DEFINITELY don't trust that Nilp actually used his trap on himself last Night (if he even is the BH).

Also lots of people (almost everyone) thought that either Pitch or Nilp were the Cobbler. If Nilp is the BH and Pitch is the Cobbler than the Seer is still out there (and very well hidden).

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

And I don't even know what to think about Nilp except bad timing. No one was suspecting him of being the BH and now he's outing himself? I don't know man...

Yep, this. I have no idea what's going on with him.

We're at, what, 3.5 hours to DL? Does anyone have any thoughts on who we should a) Mediumize or b) boost a vote for? Personally I still don't trust Form, and agree with Lottie that Mac looks suspect. Kath... I don't know, I keep going back and forth on her. It would help (me) if she posted more than once a page.

As for who I trust... Lommy looks pretty innocent, but I don't like her focus on Rikae, because so do they. Greenie I still think good things of.

And then there's Nilp, who (per #386) seems to have noticed the same number issues I did, and is trying a neutered version of the Seer-reveal gambit. Except he doesn't actually no anything, so how would that work? And the whole execution seem so Cobblerish that... I just don't know.

(Pitch I just vaguely mistrust, Legate I can't get a read on, Sally hasn't posted enough for me to read, and... is Shasta still alive? Not sure there, either.)

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

And then there's Nilp, who (per #386) seems to have noticed the same number issues I did, and is trying a neutered version of the Seer-reveal gambit. Except he doesn't actually no anything, so how would that work? And the whole execution seem so Cobblerish that... I just don't know.

If he's legit, then he's essentially trying what I did D1, but he can actually control where the trap is. He's bluffing that he doesn't have the trap toNight, but he might have the Ranger save, so it's dangerous for them to target him - but they might take that chance anyway. It's all bluffs and double bluffs, and it might help confuse the wolves.

As far as who to Mediumize, do we want to draw attention to Greenie if we think she might be the Seer? We might want to avoid Mediumizing her so we don't put a target on her back. I'd want to see Mac or Legate lynched toDay, I think, so maybe someone who's voting for them?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

As far as who to Mediumize, do we want to draw attention to Greenie if we think she might be the Seer? We might want to avoid Mediumizing her so we don't put a target on her back. I'd want to see Mac or Legate lynched toDay, I think, so maybe someone who's voting for them?

Good point on Greenie. I'm happy to gun for Mac, and will take your word on Legate.

We need three out of four votes, and we have no idea when they'll all start voting... is everyone here going to be available at DL?

hS

[Nogrod]

If Nilp was the Cobbler, that would have been a perfect act at the perfect time. Whether the Ranger would fall on it, is naturally another matter. But it would have been a nice try anyway - and if succesful, really genius.

I haven' read the actual Thread yet (well after my last visit here couple of hours ago), but I have one preliminary suggestion. If Greenie looks a) Seerish and/or b) good & reasonable, then let's vote for someone who votes the same she does. Greenie tends to vote early because she tries to go to sleep in decent hours, but us empowering her might draw too much unwanted attention to her (if she is the Seer).

But yes.

Are you all going to be around the DL, or are we in any hurry with this?


EDIT: X'd with both

[Loslote]

I’ll be around at the DL, and I agree with Mediumizing someone who votes the way Greenie does.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Greenie looks a) Seerish and/or b) good & reasonable, then let's vote for someone who votes the same she does. Greenie tends to vote early because she tries to go to sleep in decent hours, but us empowering her might draw too much unwanted attention to her (if she is the Seer).

This is a good plan (assuming she doesn't vote somewhere we really don't like - even Seers can go wrong).

She's commented on Nilp now (#392) and has essentially said 'I absolutely believe he's innocent' (but more subtly). To have not even shown a little wariness, I think she has to be either Seer or Fake Seer. (Not necessarily Evil Fake Seer, but with that many reads already...)

Edit: I can be here at DL (but would love to not need to be!).

hS

[Loslote]

Boro - sorry to hear you've lost power! I'll be here at DL and if you're not around, I can tell people to stop posting. I can even say who died if it's clear, or tell people to wait to hear from you before joining us if one of the tiebreakers come into play (I'm pretty sure I know the rules, but I wouldn't want to get it wrong!!)

[Huinesoron]

So Mac and Legate have both posted, hooray!

-Mac's is a fairly plain list-post. If he's a wolf, the rest of the pack are probably split across the list. Form-Legate-Kath would fit that description, and is the players who've been most suspected over here.

-Legate... looks bad, for the specific reason that he's ignoring Nilp's "we're in trouble tomorrow", and in fact seems to be trying to make sure everyone else forgets it. He's adamantly against any other BH revealing; well, the wolves would love all the Gifted to keep their heads down and give it One More Day. (Also, it lets them carry on the suspicion against Nilp.)

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

-Legate... looks bad, for the specific reason that he's ignoring Nilp's "we're in trouble tomorrow", and in fact seems to be trying to make sure everyone else forgets it. He's adamantly against any other BH revealing; well, the wolves would love all the Gifted to keep their heads down and give it One More Day. (Also, it lets them carry on the suspicion against Nilp.)

I agree. Legate is giving off all kinds of bad vibes imo.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree. Legate is giving off all kinds of bad vibes imo.

Nilp agrees with you. Is that good or bad?

hS

[Loslote]

Shasta and Nilp have both said they'll be voting early, Shasta maybe for Mac and Nilp maybe for Legate. I'd be comfortable Mediumizing either of them, more so Nilp.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Nilp agrees with you. Is that good or bad?

hS

I think good. I believe his reveal at this point.

[Nogrod]

Let's hope for a decent combination to appear - like Greenie and Nilp voting for Legate and then we giving an extra-vote to Nilp.

I'm not going to hang around all the rest 2½ hours but I'll be around every now and then to catch up - and will certainly want to see the DL.


I'm not sure about Nilp's reveal, but it is true there is little reason for anyone but the Cobbler (possibly) to fake it. Maybe I need to check also the details of the Trap Maker-role before making any further statements.

But that's actually not that important. I mean the first thing for us should be aiding a wolf being lynched - even if we had to empower another wolf to gain it.

[Boromir88]

Thanks Lottie. I’ll let you know for sure in about an hour.

I guess the world is telling me now is a good time to pass the time reading a book.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I think it was actually a pretty good trap. Accuse somebody in a seerish way, and if you're right, have the wolves come for you and take one down. Bonus points if the wolf that goes down with you isn't the one you accused, since the accused one would sure be toast the next day.

Convenient for you that the trap you keep praising seems to clear you......

Also, I don't like that Kath is now "suddenly" understanding why people suspect Form. Feels like a wolf trying really hard to pull the lynch back to an easy but innocent target when it's starting to swing in the direction of a packmate.

[Boromir88]

And just as I posted that, laid down with a book...

Power is back

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I’ll be around at the DL, and I agree with Mediumizing someone who votes the way Greenie does.

There is a very large chance I won't be here at DL.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

There is a very large chance I won't be here at DL.

How do you feel about voting Nilp when you have to go? We'll still have 3 votes that can put the Medium elsewhere, but we'd have your vote on a good candidate if someone else Hadd to vanish unexpectedly.

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

How do you feel about voting Nilp when you have to go? We'll still have 3 votes that can put the Medium elsewhere, but we'd have your vote on a good candidate if someone else Hadd to vanish unexpectedly.

hS

I second this.

[Blind Guardian]

I'm going to go for a run while it's still kinda cool out. I'll be back in like an hour to vote. And yes that's probably what I'll do if nothing changes.

Also what is it with Pitchwife's pings?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And just as I posted that, laid down with a book...

Power is back

Sounds a lot like life.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sounds a lot like life.

Hehe what's particularly funny is I was just pulling the covers off my bed to wash when it went out. So, they're still lying on my floor and I have lost the initiative to go wash them now. Although, I will be battling with myself to "might as well wash them, because there's no covers on my bed and why put them back on when you took them off to wash them!"

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Maybe I didn't. Maybe I had other reasons for saying it. Would that make me a wolf?

Is Rikae building to a reveal.......?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Is Rikae building to a reveal.......?

It certainly looks like it. Ugggh, it's too late for Seer Outta Nowhere.

hS