Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Diamond18]

Hmm, it seems that Boro and Elempi might be viable alternative options to the phantom.

Yes! Yes! Vote Boromir! You know you want to.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

It doesn't matter if phantom is a wolf or not- Kath wouldn't know anymore than any of us, regardless of her role.

True. But a Wolf might be more inclined than an innocent to increase the number of votes for another (even at the risk of killing the other Wolf) in order to lessen the chance of ending up being lyched.

But you have a point. Traditional arguments based on voting, bandwaggoning etc are much less decisive in our current predicament.

[The Saucepan Man]

Developing that thought further, if a Kath-Wolf concluded that the phantom is likely not to be a Wolf (based, for example, on whatever clue it is he claims to have left), then she might add to the number votes for him to increase the likelihood of an innocent being lynched and decrease the likelihood of a Wolf being lynched.

Then again, TP is currently one of my prime suspects (in so far as we can have prime suspects in this game and at this stage), so it's all pretty hypothetical.

Is it me, or is the Downs being incredibly slow at the moment?

[Roa_Aoife]

++ Diamond18

This just for now, since I'm certain I'll be around till deadline, and I want to make sure I vote. This is subject to change.

Mostly, her sudden defense of herself and invocation of Diamond's Rule draws my attention. That and my natural inclination to be different is provoking me away from phantom, for now.

If I'm alive, I'll have my traditional post by post summary and analyisis of Day 1 for everyone started.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Di18

Yes! Yes! Vote Boromir! You know you want to.

I might well do.

Although I am leaning more towards Elempi at the moment. I am not a fan of grudge votes, even on Day 1, and he has not said or done much else to assist us in our travails so far today.

[Roa_Aoife]

It's not just you- I'm having troubles as well. One reason why I'm voting now.

[Diamond18]

It was glitchy for me a while ago, but it seems to be okay now.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I might well do.

Although I am leaning more towards Elempi at the moment. I am not a fan of grudge votes, even on Day 1, and he has not said or done much else to assist us in our travails so far today.

Oh SPM, how predictable. "Hmmm, Elempi's in this game. Elempi's always suspicious, and I always suspect him. Therefore he must be a werewolf." Gimme a break.

That said, I'm not willing to lead a charge against the redoubtable SPM just yet, though he's not by any means cleared of a single gnat picking thing.

Instead, my attention is drawn back to Roa's observation, which was mine first, I might add, that Diamond's premature defense was rather specious (love that word, morm!).

So even if Roa does change her vote later, I won't after this. Diamond has at least as good a chance of being a werewolf (considering who the moderator is) as any player. Therefore:

--ANGUIREL

++DIAMOND

There. I'm done for the night.

[Boromir88]

live in Wisconsin, and it's November. So I protest. Make it 90%, at most.

We'll compromise...99.8%

Oh but that still makes you the most probable...however:

++Sauce

[Diamond18]

Hmmmm... a late bandwagon forms. Considering tp's earlier comments he is likely to join in. This would tie me with tp and leave our lives down to a coin flip. So, as I'm leaving and won't be back till after the deadline -- Don't say I didn't warn you not to disregard the rule. Not that it won't give me satisfaction to say "I told you so" of course. But I wouldn't invoke the sacred rule in a dishonest fashion, that would be... dishonest. Which is evil. Clearly, such an action would break the rule. This is an impossibility, for the rule is immutable. It hurts my brain just to consider it.

Besides, tp and I are more entertaining than Boro.

[The Saucepan Man]

Voting thus far:

Anguirel: ++the phantom (1)
Diamond: ++Boromir88 (1)
SpM: ++the phantom (2)
Mithalwen: ++Bêthberry (1)
Eomer: ++Littlemanpoet (1)
Littlemanpoet: ++Anguirel (1)
Kath: ++the phantom (3)
Estelyn: ++Boromir88 (2)
Nogrod: ++SpM (1)
Roa: ++Diamond18 (1)
Littlemapoet --Anguirel (0), ++ Diamond (2)

Yet to vote: Boromir88, mormegil, the phantom.

Of course, anyone other than Elempi may still revoke and re-vote, although a fair few are unlikely to return.

Now, much as it would amuse me to see the phantom lynched on Day 1 of Fea’s game, he has at least made solid contributions. If not a Wolf, he may prove useful yet.

Elempi, on the other hand, has done little other than vote twice, with little in the way of solid reasoning in either case. First, on the basis of a grudge, since retracted. And second on the basis of an early declaration of innocence. Problem is, a number of villagers have made bold declarations of innocence (the phantom, Boro and Esty spring to mind). They can’t all be Wolves. And since I consider Diamond’s “declaration” to be part of the early Day 1 “banter”, I find it rather specious reasoning for a vote.

I also rather agree with Eomer that Elempi nicely fit’s the description of “person Fea would be likely to pick as a Wolf”.

And of course there is, as Elempi himself points out, the added factor that I always find him suspicious.

So:

-- the phantom

++ littlemanpoet

Which ties Boro, TP, Diamond and Elempi on two votes each. But, with Boro and TP yet to vote and a number of possible retractions on the cards, I don’t see that as too much of a problem. Indeed, I rather like the situation as it is quite likely that there is a Wolf among that lot.

[The Saucepan Man]

Crossed with Boro.

Updated voting:

Anguirel: ++the phantom (1)
Diamond: ++Boromir88 (1)
SpM: ++the phantom (2)
Mithalwen: ++Bêthberry (1)
Eomer: ++Littlemanpoet (1)
Littlemanpoet: ++Anguirel (1)
Kath: ++the phantom (3)
Estelyn: ++Boromir88 (2)
Nogrod: ++SpM (1)
Roa: ++Diamond18 (1)
Littlemanpoet: --Anguirel (0), ++ Diamond (2)
Boro: ++SpM (2)
SpM: --the phantom (2), ++littlemanpoet (2)

That ties five of us up on two votes each.

[mormegil]

Would anybody tell me exactly how much more time we have to go? I have just arrived at home after a very long and busy day at work, mainly meeting hence the inability to get to a computer, and need to see my family. If I have one hour or less I'm not sure how much catch up I can do and may just have to vote with my gut. If I have two or more hours I may be able to read some and make a more educated guess. I hope it's the latter though I feel the former is true.

[The Saucepan Man]

Had I seen Boro's vote before my retraction, I might well have been inclined to vote for him rather than Elempi. Not in retribution, you understand, but because it is accompanied by a complete dearth of reasoning ...

Still, what's done is done.

C'est la vie (ou la mort, possiblement).

[The Saucepan Man]

Morm, I believe that you have about 50 mins left to vote.

The late hour (for me) notwithstanding, and despite my votes having been spent, I may well hang around to watch this day play out to its grim end. Not least because it may be my final chance to participate before the noose is paced around my neck ...

[mormegil]

Since I don't have an answer yet and I need to go eat and see the family I will vote. If I get time to return and read I can change my vote if I deem it necessary. My gut tells me Boro is a wolf and not because of SpM's latest post on him. Sadly I haven't done the normal deep reading and analysis so there isn't any logic behind this or even a good reason, simply he feels the most wolfish to me.

++Boromir

[mormegil]

Thanks Sauce though I cross posted. I doubt I will make it back tonight. Again I am sorry.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

Phantom, when I re-read your posts, I received the very clear impression that you were taking every opportunity to suggest that lynching you would not be a good idea.

You continue to puzzle me, sir. The vast majority of my posts have nothing to do with my innocence or guilt whatsoever. Especially when compared to other villages I've been in. At the time you accused me of doing this, only 3 of my 16 posts had anything to do with deflecting suspicion from myself, and all 3 were direct responses to what others said. This in no way gives a "clear impression" of taking "every opportunity" to avoid lynching.

Quite honestly, I have never in my life feared lynching less. I'm neither a gifted nor a WW and given the way this game is set up I feel no pressure to overanalyze things. Basically I'm just having fun, entertaining our mod (that's why Fea invited me to play I'm sure), and hoping against hope that I am able to pick out a WW or two along the way.

Given my extremely carefree approach, you simply must understand how shocking it is to be accused of obsessing over being lynched. I'm simply not. I think you're reading the wrong posts or something, SPM.

Originally Posted by me

When I said "one or two observant individuals who have been in many villages with me" I thought you were one of them. Have you not noticed anything today that would make you trust my words? If not, oh well, maybe it's not as obvious as I thought. I'll have to tell you what it was after this is over. You'll laugh when you hear it.

Originally Posted by SPM

I have read your words very carefully and seen much which has given me cause for thought. In a game of Werewolf, however, it is very dangerous to take anything said at face value. As I said, you would be one of the first players on my list of Wolves capable of messing with villagers’ heads. Still, if you are messing with my head, you are doing so successfully, as this gives me reason to reconsider yet again.

Heh heh. I'm not messing with your head. This will be the last comment I make on this matter-> You should take my first post at face value. Especially point #5. Not because of the idea I'm trying to get across in point #5, but the way in which I do it. I'll leave it at that.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

You're done now.

Boromir88, you will be missed.

Post coming...

[the phantom]

+ + Diamond18

[the phantom]

I cross-posted with you Fea. Does my vote count?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The thread says 9:59, therefore your vote made it. I'll have to take more note in the future that my clock appears to be a minute fast...

The coin has been flipped.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The village had welcomed them back, unsuspecting. The Dark Lady watched from her tower; the village had not seen their long forgotten lady, standing beautifully alone in her high window, watching the shadows of the clouds caress the fields between her broken castle and the innocent village beyond; they had turned from her power long before, and had made unconscious habit of averting their eyes from the haunting remnants of her reign.

Only one time during the day could they not escape reminder of her presence: in the latest light of afternoon, the darkest, most intense light of twilight, the shadow of her tower stretched across the land, reaching greedily toward the village, a path of early night between the Lady and her prey. She watched them, draping herself in the frame of her window, a desolate portrait of despair and hate lit by nothing, accompanied only by her faithful feathered friend, and she let the breeze carry her tainted whispers to them.

She had poisoned the innocence of two travellers. She had taken them in, had called to them as they looked beyond the gate, and they had come. They had moved forward in curious exploration, had only suspected seconds before it was too late. She had met their eyes and they had met their fates, sealed forever in the darkness of her thoughts and the regularity of the distant moon. And then, with the break of the dawn, she had sent them away.

Through their eyes she had seen the activities of the day. She had seen the village take its first, tottering steps toward its own destruction.

She had whispered words to them, and to herself, watching carefully their faces when a soundless voice greeted them, calling to them, "O, what men dare do! What men may do! What men daily do, not knowing what they do!" Her voice was silk and poison, and their eyes grew afraid, and they spoke anew, with more haste.

"I do not understand." Many shared this sentiment, and others tried to calm them.

"It is what she wants..."

She laughed long, deep inside her, and in this sudden show of humanity she seemed fiercer than before. Not all wished to acknowledge her, her dangerous presence just outside the village, just beyond its borders. Some looked toward the East, glancing away from the crumbling castle. She could not be there; of course she was not. She had left long before. She was gone. The Lady of the Night had disappeared, and it was of no bearing to assume the fear that shivered them all was her doing.

The air had grown cold and the shadows had deepened. It is just the season, some rationalized. This is natural suspicion.

"She wants us to fear!" cried those who remembered, those who had known her long before. They had had extensive dealings with the Dark Lady, and knew she was never to be taken lightly.

"She is gone!"

The accusations began. Only a day, she smiled, and they have turned on each other. Fools, unhappy fools, how you delight me.

"You work for her," one hissed.

"You do not know me, sir!" Anger. Defense. "I have never. In all my time, I have never... Why now? Why would I begin now?"

A young scholar stepped forth. "He is mad that trusts in the tameness of a wolf, a horse's health, a boy's love, or an oath. We should not trust her claims."

"We will all die." The voice was grave; that of a gravedigger, echoed by many. "But first, so shall it be that we will fight."

And so it came to be that two villagers were led forth to the shadowed gallows and their eyes strained to follow the darkness to the tower in the distance, but they resisted.

The Dark Lady smiled grimly. So it begins. So it ends. So doth the play move ever onward, tinged with love, and with death. Life is but a walking shadow; a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

The villagers looked with haunted eyes upon their fellows. "You have betrayed us," they seemed to say.

"Who will die?"

All looked to the speaker.

"What mean you?"

"We cannot take the lives of more than one... it is forbidden." The gravedigger. The master of ancient lore, rememberer of forgotten poems of needful thoughts of ancestors. "So it has been written, and so it must be done. Only one will die this day."

A man stood before the crowd, and a woman. They looked to each other with fear, to the crowd with disdain. "Betrayers." they spoke. High in her tower in the distance, the Lady laughed. What comes of this will prove most cruel, she thought.

The man spoke to the village with dignified calm. "Spare the lady."

"You dare to die yourself to save her?"

"I dare do all that may become a man; who dares do more is none."

With respect in her eyes she stepped again into the warmth of the crowd, and a tear glistened on her cheek. "Fare thee well," she murmured, her eyes bright with unknown thought.

In moments he was still. The town's sociologist surveyor was gone, his spirit having fled the confines of this world. The man they killed was innocent. The Dark Lady laughed through the eyes of her pawns.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Night has begun. Werewolves, please send me your kill choices.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Moonlit darkness crawled across the floor of the tower and the Lady watched the stars. Her newest slaves were motionless upon the floor.

"You have been brave." she murmered without turning. "But you have not been wise."

They raised their eyes from the floor and looked to her.

"I gave you one task. One simple task. You were to make your way to the village and sunder hearts. As reward, each night a choice was yours."

"But we never knew..."

"You will be silent. Your blindness may yet aid you; that you cannot see beyond me in the dark may not prove your undoing. And yet it also may."

Dawn fast approached. Why had their requests been denied until now?

“My lady,” whispered one, “you promised.”

“I promised you blood to sustain your precarious lives. And blood shall be spilt.”

“My lady?” Her smile was cruel, her eyes rapturous.

The village woke to find mormegil’s corpse hanging, dripping blood into the well.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I'm starting with Diamond because of my earlier stated suspicion. After that, I'll be moving on to phantom, because he posted first, and the content of his posts seems to be in some dispute. After that, it will likely be morm, just to see why he was killed, and then the Boromir voters, for no real reason except that it's somewhere to start. Feel free to help out. I'm not too worried about a wolf distorting the facts, since they don't know any better than we do. And someone remember to analyze me along the way. I can't very well do it myself.

So then: Diamond18- Post Summary

Post 1- first day nonsense (:P), List of Grudges (Eomer and Boromir), thinks tp is a wolf because of mod

Post 2- Response to TP's remark about Esty, doesn't want to kill Esty, elaborates upon grudge against Boromir, more banter

Post 3- Offers a defense, points out that she has never been guilty, invokes "Diamond's Rule"

Post 4- Doesn't think Fea would break Diamond's Rule, mocking suggestion about ang and tp being wolves

Post 5- Thinks Nogrod has some interesting points against SPM, find's SPM's plan to tie everyone odd, wonders about him being evil or mentally unstable?

Post 6- Off the wall theory about tp being indestructible, more banter, says her lover will die if she is lynched

Post 7- Something about Fea and quote tags

Post 8- Complaint about no edit rule

Post 9- Suggests tp replace her on the list with Boromir, agrees that if Boromir is killed at night, she should be lynched, votes BOROMIR

Post 10- demands Boromir refigure his statistics since she lives in Wisconsin

Post 11- Random burst of maniacal laughter

Post 12- More calls to vote for Boromir

Post 13- remark about BD's glitchiness

Post 14- remark about late bandwagon forming for her, says she warned us, and more invocation of Diamond's Rule, saying that she wouldn't use it dishonestly, since that would break the rule

[Roa_Aoife]

Diamond Analysis

Her first couple posts are little more than first day banter, which is perfectly acceptable (especially since almost all of the villagers did the same thing.) What first irked me was her invocation of Diamond's Rule, and the defense she offered for herself, long before anyone had seriously suggested her as a vote candidate. I think I'm the least experienced player here, but a quick defense is usually a sign of a slip-up. She elaborated on this several times before anyone suspected her. I'm having a difficult time seeing this as something other than a wolf jumping the gun. She invokes it again over the "bandwagon" forming for her. In my mind, two votes does not a bandwagon make, especially since there were multiple others who had this same tally. Was she nervous? Or was she trying the old "it's way too obvious" trick?

I would say something about the dogged grudge match with Boromir, which grew exponentially as more and more people mentioned suspicions of him, and completely overran her previously mentioned grudge against Eomer, but it's almost forgivable considering the circumstances of the Day.

[Roa_Aoife]

Phantom Summary

Post 1- All votes are meaningless, kills may be meaningful, a werewolf, could kill another werewolf, strategy is limited, therefore keep strategy secret, he is not a werewolf

Post 2- Distrusts mod's honesty in coin flipping, disagrees with SPM's plan, "The only way I'd ever support your random lynch plan is if I was the favorite to be lynched." Thinks we should try to determine who Fea would pick to be a wolf

Post 3- think's Kath's grudge plan makes sense, banter with ang about grudges, can't think of any grudges that he bears

Post 4- Current lynch list: Ang, Diamond, Esty, morm

Post 5- Says he would have made Esty a WW if he were mod

Post 6- Response to Boromir about Esty, response to Ang about thoughts on Fea picking everything, says Fea could lie to us if she wanted to, says that he as a werewolf would be too obvious and predictable

Post 7- says he never committed to killing Esty today, banter about pointy teeth, banter about Diamond's Rule, thoughts on Nogrod's case against SPM, says he could spin him either way, and so will leave it be for now, banter about being an unknown wolf or indestructible, doesn't think Fea would be a third werewolf, isn't surprised at Ang's vote

Post 8- thinks that all strategy and analysis have been removed from the game, feels no pressure to win, thinks that all winning would prove was that the other side had bad luck, says he wouldn't want to be a wolf in this village

Post 9- Doesn't think Boromir is a wolf, doesn't think ruling out so many people to begin with is bad, since he wants to start somewhere, says he can't be a Fenris Wolf because he is not a wolf, and if he ever is a wolf in a future game, he won't be suspected

Post 10- Remarks on the randomness of Bb's post

Post 11- Says the randomness was probably the point

Post 12- listing of all the times he has bested Ang, new lynch list: Diamond, Morm, Nogrod, says Fea would likely break Diamond's Rule

Post 13- more grudge banter with Ang

Post 14- Doesn't know If Bb could be a werewolf, says it's possible, points out that no conditions for ending the game have been posted, says BB couldn't be one of the two werewolves inside the village

Post 15- says we can vote to lynch Fea or Bb, but doesn't recommend it

Post 16- Says he hasn't spent that much time defending himself or stating his innocence, (only 3 of 16 posts), lists them, asks people to use real reasons to lynch him, not made up ones, thinks it's unlikely that he would be picked, says everyone's logical analysis is useless, thinks SPM's reasoning is sub-par

Post 17- Thinks SPM should have realized by now that he is innocent

Post 18- says he'll be back before the deadline

Post 19- Is still confused by SPM's reasoning for his lynching, says he isn't afraid of lynching at all, directs SPM to review his first post

Post 20- Votes Diamond

[Roa_Aoife]

Phantom Analysis

First and foremost, his pessimism and statements about analysis being useless irk me (as all such statements usually do.) This however comes from a player who claims to rely almost wholly on analysis. He seems to think that because we can't really use a vote record, and kills are very limited in usefulness, that we have nothing to go on. This just isn't true. I think phantom is too intelligent to just throw in the towel like that, so it leads me to think that this is meant to discourage the village from strategizing or analyzing anything at all. It's a theme he plays upon multiple times, starting in his first post, where he discourages the discussion of all strategy, and continues on through his implication that Fea really controls everything, and so everything we do is useless.

Of course, after all that talk about analysis being impossible, he demands that SPM give good reasons for voting for him, dismissing all previously given reasons off hand as ridiculous. And one of those "poor" reasons given was pretty close to the one reason he gave for his suspicions- that is, Fea's likely choice. He never really gave a reason for having anyone on his lynch list, except once to mention that Fea would be the one to break Diamond's Rule.

In short, he doesn't care whether or not he is lynched, doesn't think he is useful to the village, and doesn't really feel any drive to do much other than entertain, and gives little to no reason for who he suspects, yet demands better reasons for lynching him. Lynch him.

[Roa_Aoife]

Morm Summary

Post 1- Points out problem with SPM's plan, sarcastic response to phantom's declaration of innocence

Post 2- Thinks Fea is too smart to make Esty a wolf, thinks phantom is a reasonable choice for Fea, says tp will be his likely vote

Post 3- general complaint about the chaos of the game mostly relating to Bb's sudden appearance

Post 4- Response to Nogrod's opinion on SPM, doesn't think we can use such information to incriminate SPM, suggests lynching Fea

Post 5- question about time limit

Post 6- Votes Boromir based on gut feeling

Post 7- Says he won't be back (how ironic)

Analysis
This has all the markings of a safety kill. Morm didn't really suspect anyone, said little in the way of defending anyone, and his vote was for the already dead and now known innocent Boromir. The only connections to be drawn are his statement that phantom was a likely choice for Fea, his disagreement with Nogrod about SPM, and his disagreement with Ang and TP about Esty, all of with are things that others had done as well.

That's all for now. I'll be back a few hours before deadline, hopefully with more analysis.

[the phantom]

Yesterday's voting-

Ang for tp (1)
Di for Boro (1)
SPM for tp (2)
Mith for Beth (1)
Eomer for lmp (1)
lmp for Ang (1)
Kath for tp (3)
Esty for Boro (2)
Nogrod for SPM (1)
Roa for Di (1)
lmp take back Ang (0)
lmp for Di
Boro for SPM
SPM take back tp (2)
SPM for lmp (2)
morm for Boro (3)
tp for Di (3)

I almost got you there at the end, Di! But poor Boro got the axe instead.

I told you he wasn't a WW. I've been in villages with him before. I've been a WW with him before. I know the way he thinks and posts. He was, in my mind, the most clearly innocent person.

And in case you wonder why I chose to tie Di with him rather than lmp or SPM, it's because I'm more comfortable with those two. I have no doubt that I could much more easily pick out a WW SPM or lmp than a WW Di. I've seen less of her, plus I've never ever seen her as a baddie. As the game progresses, I will without a doubt begin to form a clearer picture in my mind of whether or not SPM and lmp are innocent (right or wrong), therefore I want to keep them around. Di, on the other hand- it's possible I will never gain a handle on her guilt/innocence.

That's why I tried to get you killed, m'dear. No hard feelings.

Now I'm going to take a general look at yesterday and give a couple thoughts.

1) Mith for Beth?? Very odd. Were Fea's WWs given special instructions to create as much chaos as possible? If so, Mith's vote would fit. I'm not sure what to think.

2) I find lmp's votes slightly suspicious. Did he vote for Ang thinking he'd get a counter-phantom-bandwagon vote started? And when it didn't pan out, he threw his weight onto Di. This seems like the smart choice at this point for a WW. Don't vote for the current leaders (me-3, Boro-2), but rather elevate someone else into frontrunner status. Also, lmp's post #128 rubs me the wrong way. There's just something about it... the wording. It reminds me of me when I've been a WW.

3) My suspicion of lmp leads me to lean towards SPM's innocence. He did change his vote from me to lmp after all. Sauce- did lmp's post #128 make you uncomfortable as well? But I haven't completely cleared you. I'm still wondering if your statement about the rules at the beginning of the village was a ploy. The thing is, the information you gave as far as I understand turned out to be incorrect (WWs are in fact on a team according to Fea), so did you give incorrect info about the WWs so people would think "My goodness- he didn't even know the way the WW role worked. He couldn't possibly be one." But, there is also another ploy that you could've been attempting to execute as an innocent, so I'm up in the air on it. And no, don't ask me to explain the ploy (until after this is over). If I say it then I'll negate its power.

4) Roa, m'dear, it pains me to say it but both yesterday and today you fell head first into a trap of mine. You see, one of your complaints about my behavior was something that I was actually doing purposefully as a ploy, and I was betting that WWs would have a certain reaction to it. Not that I'm saying I'm sure you're a WW. Depending on your personality, it's possible my trap misfired. I'm not going to start gunning for you yet, but I will watch to see if you continue to travel down the path. And yes, I'll eventually explain what this "trap" is that I'm speaking of (later today), and when I do you can tell me what you think of it and by all means vote to lynch me if you don't like my explanation, but I feel the need to leave it alone just for a few hours.

5) Nogrod is innocent.

[the phantom]

his pessimism and statements about analysis being useless irk me

Boo hoo.

I'm just trying to be realistic. The idea of analyzing WW teamwork has been removed. You can't deny that. The idea of analyzing WW kills has been muddled. You can't deny that. WWs have no way of planning nightly kills together. You can't deny that. WWs have no way of discussing strategy. You can't deny that. Without a Seer it is impossible to have concrete knowledge of innocence or guilt until death. You can't deny that.

If the villagers win, or the WWs win, it will simply make them champions of "Blind Luck". That's why I said it would annoy me to be a WW in this game. I wouldn't feel as if I had proven anything.

Not that I wouldn't try my best.

And probably win.

[the phantom]

Why was morm killed?

I can only suppose because he's a bright chap, and because there are several people here who are familiar enough with him that would probably come to the conclusion that he was innocent before too long.

He was, for me anyway, in the same boat as SPM and lmp. I want them around because I'm more comfortable getting a feeling about them than I am for some others. By day 3 or so I have little doubt that I would've had a good sense of where morm stood, and chances are I would've come to the right conclusion about him.

Along this line of thinking, I'm wondering if maybe the WWs are killing off the least random/crazy people, and will let be individuals capable of madness and more unpredictable behavior. It would make sense after all. This is a village designed to be more random than others. If this is what the WWs are doing, then Nogrod and SPM won't live long. Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night.

[Diamond18]

Mith and Di, on the other hand, have little to fear at night.

Well, that's nice to hear. At least with my nemesis Boromir gone I can rest a little easier. (See Jenny and Sleepy's last game for details).

I almost got you there at the end, Di! But poor Boro got the axe instead.

You are very lucky you did not succeed, as standing in the way of my revenge would have shot you right to the top of my "to kill" list. As is, I'm not going to throw away that half completed sketch of you with various knives sticking out away just yet.

But seeing as how Roa wants you dead, I can hardly vote for you, can I?

Yes, in this game I'm just trying to see how annoyingly petty I can be before people lynch me for the pure frustration of it.

[Diamond18]

I do not understand Fea's narration.

Do we know if morm was innocent or a wolf?

Because, even as a wolf he could have fallen prey to his fellow wolf, right?

And I don't understand the conversation between the dark lady and the wolves. It seems to mean something. But I don't understand what.

[Nogrod]

I must agree somewhat with tp as I have had some time to think about the game dynamics here. The room for rational arguments and cases to be made are surely narrowed down considerably in this one. With this bunch of players able to stay calm/carnevalistic and capable of double-/triple bluffing it would have been pretty hard to go after the wolves in an ordinary game already. But I'd like to share Roa's optimism too. There must be something... we just have to find it.

Just a few minor notes as I just finished reading this opus.

Originally Posted by Fea #95

Everybody works for their side to win. That doesn't specifically mean that anybody is working together.

Now this seems most curious! Specifically? I don't believe that word is there unintentionally... Breaking this knot might be one way of easing our task here, possibly... hopefully...

Originally Posted by Di #130

Don't say I didn't warn you not to disregard the rule. Not that it won't give me satisfaction to say "I told you so" of course. But I wouldn't invoke the sacred rule in a dishonest fashion, that would be... dishonest. Which is evil.

In a case you are wolf, you are evil anyway! Thence you are very capable of invoking it in dishonest fashion...

And Spm, I "jumped" on your "misconceived attempts at strategy" (as you paraphrase it) because I had nothing better to go with and still wished to have a reason to my vote. ToDay I will be much more reluctant to vote for you as I have read what has happened since I got away from this yesterDay.

But that means I have to come up with a better one in this labyrinth.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, some quick thoughts, as I must go soon and won’t have a chance to get back until later today.

I am rather amused, phantom, that you took the time to explain how unconcerned you were about being lynched as part of your continuing effort to address and dismiss my suspicions of you, particularly as I had already switched my vote from you (thus, effectively saving you from being the one who’s life would hang in the balance with Boro’s).

I am glad that I did, though. At the time that I switched my vote, my suspicion of you had lessened considerably and I am now pretty much content to trust you, for the time being at least. Re-reading your contributions overnight, they come across genuine enough and it seems to me that you were far more vocal yesterday than I would expect a Wolf to be on Day 1, particularly in this game. Your attempts to defend yourself (more, now I think of it, than I would expect from a Wolf) and your “pessimism” aside (and I can understand what you were trying to achieve here), your contributions yesterday were some of the best, in terms of trying to flush out the Wolves.

For now, therefore, the phantom is off my lynch list. I fully appreciate that he is quite capable of giving a very effective impression of innocence, and I could be having the wool pulled over my eyes big time here (by a "Wolf in sheep's clothing"). But, even in this game, an innocent phantom is a formidable asset to the village, so I am prepared to take that risk for the time being.

I have come to the conclusion that the best strategy for a Wolf on Day 1 would have been to lay relatively low, say or do little that was controversial, but at the same time make sure that their presence was felt.

The three that best exemplified that approach, it seems to me, were the three ‘Es’: Eomer, Estelyn and Elempi. All three, I might add, are very plausible choices by Fea for Wolf, if we are working on the basis that one of the Wolves, at least, was not randomly selected.

My main suspicions remain with Elempi, since I would expect a Wolf on Day 1 to at least try to give some reasoning for their vote, to avoid being challenged for unreasoned voting. The votes of both Eomer and Esty were pretty much unreasoned, but Elempi attempted to explain his reasoning for voting for Di. And, as I noted when I voted for him yesterday, it was pretty poor reasoning. Di was far from being the only villager to have made a point of declaring her innocence before any serious suspicion was cast in her direction. The phantom (in the first post of the day) and Esty did the same, as, effectively, did Elempi and Boro.

For this reason, I also have slight concerns about Roa, as her reasoning for suspecting Di follows along similar lies. You find it suspicious that Di would invoke “Diamond’s rule” so early. Yet you make no comment about others having done much the same.

Like Di, I would welcome any thoughts on Fea's narration (as I too feel that there may be some clues there), and also her blog - which we are directed to look at by the "?". Does she perhps have something against people who wear shawls?

That’s all I’ve got time for now. Back later.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I, too, find Fea's narration far from understandable and must assume, since she is skilful and deliberate with words, that it is so for a purpose. Can it be that we will not find out which of the deceased were wolves or innocents until the game is over? In that case, we have no increasing chance of voting with any kind of logic as the game proceeds.

From the words of the Dark Lady, you would think that her displeasure results from the choice of one of her vassals for killing. But there is no word about the physical shape of the slain, neither one way or the other.

Though it is regrettable that I chose wrongly in voting for Boromir on the first Day, it was statistically inevitable. I have no idea yet whom I will choose toDay. I am reading the various analyses with great interest, but as I said above, I'm not sure the chances of improving our accuracy in targeting WWs will have improved toDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I tend to agree with SPM. A sensible wolf would probably have found it very easy to stay out of an argument on Day One. More so, perhaps, in this game than previously — for the idea here is pretty much entirely to get the villagers inventing fights with each other. There is no banner of logic to flock to; we are each without allies on this field of chaos. It would be wise to make friends.

*anyone want to get a drink with me?*

As in previous games, I often want to trust those who are aggressive or who come under strong suspicion.

As for Momegil, I'm assuming he was innocent. Nogrod, at least, will see the philosophy in this. What was Mormegil? We could judge that he was the man who lived among us. If a man changes into a wolf, at what point does he lose his identity, if at all?

And other stuff about an infinite number of different rivers.

Anyway, it was Mormegil's corpse found, not a wolf's. Gah! As I type I realise that past experience offers not certainty. Sometimes wolf corpses are found, but sometimes they change back to the villager after death. Nevermind what I just typed.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Must rush away.....really late for class. Scanned the rules and see that Fea says that the wolves each pick a kill and only one gets their choice. So what if the lucky wolf picks the other wolf?

It dies, right?

So SPM was right in thinking that the wolves are each other's biggest enemies despite being on the same side. Is that what that 'specifically' is about? The wolves can die in their sleep just like the poor villagers!

Providing the wolves realised that immediately then it might tell us a lot. Morm was killed maybe because someone thought he was a wolf.

So what was wolvish about Morm? He was slightly quieter than normal but I think he was busy at work? Voted for Boro at the end....no real suspicions, like most people. Received no votes, played it as safe as he could have done.

And does it indicate that at least one wolf fits this description, sees Mormegil mirroring said description, and thinks it spots the other wolf?

Or is it bluffing? Is the other wolf the complete opposite of Morm, and wants to throw us off the scent?

Questions, questions...back later.